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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, April 25, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*SARS Economic Costs Spreading Faster 04-25-03 (Yahoo) The economic impact of SARS (news - web sites) is spreading faster than the virus as it threatens to evolve from a short-term blow to Asian demand into a shock capable of disrupting global trade and output.
*Failure to reform remains key obstacle to rapid global recovery: OECD 04-25-03 (Yahoo) With the Iraq (news - web sites) war over and oil prices stabilising, inadequate structural reform by Germany, Japan and a handful of other countries is one of the last remaining obstacles to a rapid global recovery, the OECD said. "The apparent rapid resolution to the conflict, and the more settled geopolitical climate that is assumed to follow, should allow investor and consumer confidence to strengthen gradually," the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its Economic Outlook report.
*World Bank warns of Sars effect 04-25-03 (BBC) The World Trade Organisation voiced similar fears, saying that growth in trade would remain below par this year after having shrunk in 2001. And the OECD club of rich nations warned in its semi-annual economic outlook that the economic impact on the region could be "significant", especially in the tourism and retail sectors.
*Opec trims oil output 04-25-03 (BBC) Members of the Opec oil cartel, meeting in Vienna, have agreed to cut crude oil supplies by two million barrels a day in an attempt to stop prices falling. Ministers representing the member states said the move involved reducing extra supplies introduced before the Iraq war, while simultaneously lifting official output quotas
*Iraq oil production back, Baghdad awaits crude supply 04-25-03 (Yahoo) Oil output has partially resumed in Iraq (news - web sites) but Baghdad's refinery urgently needs new crude that cannot come until war damage to a pipeline is repaired.
*Fair Trade Coffee Urged on Campuses 04-24-03 (Yahoo) As many as 200 schools, activists say, are responding to calls to change the way they purchase coffee so that poor farmers, mainly in Central America, get a bigger cut of the profit from the beans they grow. "You can make a difference for a child you've never met," said Cindy Megill, a junior at central Pennsylvania's Juniata College. "Or you can buy a cup of coffee with a corporate logo on it." Like students at other schools, Megill — a tea-drinker herself — is pushing Juniata to exclusively serve fair trade label coffee in campus dining halls and cafes.
*WTO Says Trade Up by 2.5 Percent in 2002 04-24-03 (Yahoo) Measured in revenue, exports of goods rose to $6.24 trillion in 2002. The report said "the largest single element in the global trade recovery of last year was North America," with a 3 percent increase in U.S. imports. U.S. exports fell by nearly 4 percent, partly because of reduced demand from trading partners with economic problems. Despite the improvement in imports in the United States, the continued economic sluggishness in many other markets led to lower inflation rates, worsening unemployment and a massive decline in international investment, which fell to $500 billion in 2002 from $1.2 trillion in 2000

 LATIN AMERICA
*Apathy gives boost to Peronists 04-25-03 (sunspot.net) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - For many Argentines, former President Carlos Menem is synonymous with corruption and gangster-style politics. He has been arrested for suspected arms dealing and is widely resented for selling off every state-owned industry, from the oil company to the postal service. In power from 1989 to 1999, he is perhaps the most hated political figure in this nation of 37 million people - some pollsters say between 60 percent and 70 percent of the population would never vote for him under any circumstance.
*Chile’s President Lagos Struggles to Finish Term 04-25-03 (worldpress.org) Little more than a decade after the agonizing end of Chile's 17-year military dictatorship under Gen. Augusto Pinochet, the civilians who replaced him are wondering if they will manage to finish their current term of office.
*Colombia, Venezuela to discuss border 04-24-03 (miami.com) The blue-green mountains of the Perijá range that rise just a short distance west of this small Venezuelan town mark the official border with neighboring Colombia. But if border residents, and the Colombian government itself, are to be believed, the border these days is little more than a line on a map, left increasingly unprotected by the Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chávez, whom they accuse of allowing Colombian leftist guerrillas to cross back and forth virtually at will.

 RUSSIA
*Russian Merger Creates a New Oil Giant 04-24-03 (Washington Post) Russia's biggest oil company, Yukos, today announced a deal to buy another major Russian oil firm, Sibneft, a move they said would create the fourth-largest private oil producer in the world. Yukos said the new company would produce 2.3 million barrels of crude oil a day, an amount surpassed only by British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch/Shell Group. If measured by the volume of proven oil reserves it controls in the ground, the new company would rank higher than any other private oil company

 ASIA

 AFRICA
*Africa wakes up to Sars 04-24-03 (BBC) African countries are stepping up measures at ports and airports to detect travellers who might be carrying the Sars virus. Many Beijing residents are anxious to leave This follows warnings that the pneumonia-like disease poses a particular threat to people whose immune systems have been weakened by Aids. So far the continent has not been affected by Sars, although one suspected case is being investigated in South Africa.

 OIL PRICES
*Cut U.S. oil dependence by boosting fuel efficiency 04-25-03 (kansascity.com) The best time to start reducing the huge U.S. dependence on foreign oil is right now. The most critical task is to require that new American vehicles use gasoline more efficiently. The petroleum market is more stable than it has been in months. Oil prices are falling. Worldwide production is going up. Venezuela is selling as much crude as possible to recoup money lost during an oil workers' strike. On Wednesday, U.S.-led engineers began pumping the first postwar crude from Iraq's wells.
*OPEC to Cut Oil Output by 7 Percent 04-25-03 (Yahoo) At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries took the surprising step of temporarily raising its official output target to 25.4 million barrels, up 900,000 barrels a day from its existing ceiling.
*OPEC weighs all options to avoid postwar glut 04-25-03 (iht.com) < < Back to Start of Article VIENNA Seeking to stave off a postwar oil glut, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries prepared Wednesday to cut output significantly to support prices ahead of the eventual resumption of Iraqi oil exports.
 
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04-25-03  panasonic: <Savo> anyway, I'm glad to read we are worried about Guano's calls :-))

04-25-03  Zephyr: Savo, they can go above par, it is just up to Ecuador whether they will call them or not. Investors will not be willing to pay much more than par due to the fear they will be called.

To illustrate what will happen, lets use an extreme example and say that Ecuador has become a really strong credit like a single A and has not called their bonds yet. They could issue new bonds at a yield around other A rated credits (say 6%). The old bonds still yield 12%, but nobody is going to pay more than 100 (maybe a little more, but not much) for the old 12% bonds as they are afraid they could get called away and they take a loss (pay 101 and get called at 100).

It will happen something like above, but much earlier than before their fair market yields are at 6%. At a price of 122, the Ecuador bonds would be yielding 8.5% to maturity, but Ecuador would simply call them at 100 and issue new debt at a 8.5% yield.


04-25-03  panasonic: <wally: if i am not "mishtoken" both Guanos have calls and that for each year till maturity. but i don't see a reason why the prices could not go above par> imo they can go above par, but not much (like 122%) bcz then Guano could issue o bond at 9% interest & call this one anytime, who would take the risk to buy at 122%?

04-25-03  Fox: The Iranian Game
By Stratfor

http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/nonem/1...


04-25-03  wally: <savo> i can see <zephyr's> point which is a logical conclusion.

04-25-03  Fox: <The current global balance of power is such that any coalition -- no matter how large -- that does not include the United States does not reflect the realities of global power.>

Interesting quote from Stratfor.


04-25-03  savonarola: zephir.. I don't understand.. If the Guano 12s can not go above par, it means they will be trading at 12% YTM .. how can they issue debt below that? Nobody would buy it. Whoever wants to buy Guano will buy the 12% debt.

04-25-03  Neznaika: Indonesia plans to buy 48 Sukhoi fighter jets from Russia, The Associated Press quoted Indonesia's military chief General Endriartono Sutarto as saying in Moscow on Thursday. http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2...

Hmm, better load on some fresher stuff, you never know when various "liberators" get some funny ideas crawling up their heads...


04-25-03  Zephyr: <even if they would, from where would Ecuador take the money, invoke the calls and redeem? > They could refinance at a lower rate and use the proceeds to pay off the 12's and 30's. Assuming Ecuador continues to improve, the bonds could go a little above Par. At some point in time, it would make more sense for them to refinance at a lower rate (say 10%) and then payoff the old bonds.

04-25-03  wally: <carib <the R$ hovering around 3, which is a fine level in my opinion>> and i could live with that too.

04-25-03  carib: <rock and hard place> interesting analysis on the R$ FX <optimum> level. It confirms that @2,5 the R$ would still be fairly priced, but would not deliver the trade surplus the country needs in times of lower FDI. Probably, if brasil stopped rolling over US$ indexed local bonds, this would help the R$ hovering around 3, which is a fine level in my opinion.

04-25-03  wally: if i am not "mishtoken" both Guanos have calls and that for each year till maturity. but i don't see a reason why the prices could not go above par. even if they would, from where would Ecuador take the money, invoke the calls and redeem?

04-25-03  Zephyr: That is what Bloomberg is showing anyway, I don't have the actual prospectus, but I think Bloomberg is right.

04-25-03  Zephyr: Savo, Ecua 12 is callable at par every 6 months (each pmt date).

04-25-03  savonarola: Zephir.. could you clarify the term of that call. The original docs I have don't mention it. BN says it is in 2001 .. so what is it?

04-25-03  Zephyr: Ecua 12 cannot go much above 100 due to the call. I'll probably sell in the mid 80's although I do feel it can easily go higher.

04-25-03  savonarola: Amateur ... my target for Guano 12 is 122 .... I think that Guano should trade tighter than Brazil.

04-25-03  Amateur: Savo, Guano 12 pays a fat coupon in three weeks. At 80, it still yields 16%. 80 should be surpassed easily.

04-25-03  savonarola: Will Guano 12s break the 80% bid <psicological> barrier?

or

will the NY female chimpanzees do their usual following Barclay's Jose Barrionuevo?


04-25-03  Fox: <carib: Brasileiros, for once, start worring about the dollar getting too week...>

Nobody wants an <appreciated R$> but Mercadante lost an unique opportunity to shut his MOUTH!!!

There are effective ways to depreciate the R$ & stupid things.

1) You could buy dollars issuing R$ debt and pay 27% p.a. in local currency. If you do this in sufficient quantities you would succesfully created a inflationary spiral (either by balooning the fiscal deficit or by demand of real assets) that sooner or latter would eat up the desired depreciation.

2) You could use reserves to buy USD like Japan does, dont think Braz has idle reserves in sufficient amount to make any difference.

3) You could wait to inflation recede & start cutting interest rates to undermine as much as posible the interest rate arbitrage USD/R$.

Problem here is that we really dont know today what element is driving the R$ appreciation, PPP, Interest Rate Arb (IRA) or Asset Model.

Or a what is worst a domino effect between all of them:

PPP increased the Trade Balance> This improvement unleashes the Interest Rate Arbs> in an attemp to stop IRA local rates are reduced> Lower interest rates unleashes to purchase of Braz equities & other real assets (lots & mountains) that are consider undevalue due to years of dismail economic growth.

Conclusion: Theres is nothing inlelligent and or responsible to do other than; reduce fiscal deficits in order to reduce overall Debt and fight inflation in order to defend the Real Exchange rate rather than the nominal FX.


04-25-03  Fox: <Lots & Mountains> It would be great but Im afraid Im still cant afford it just yeat. :-(((

04-25-03  amigo latino: <dooper: Besides the backwardness of having laws that prohibit certain activities by and between consenting adults……………>

Unlocking the black box “certain” determines if the prohibiting law is really backward!


04-25-03  Fox: <We just need to get one more for C banker and one for Fox, when he sobers up and decides to post his promised forward R$ forecast....>

On R$ May 04 right?

R$= 3.25


04-25-03  Fox: <We just need to get one more for C banker and one for Fox, when he sobers up and decides to post his promised forward R$ forecast....> Buuuueeeenaassss!!!

Be back after some <Brazilian Santos & Marlboro>


04-25-03  amigo latino: <Argentina Pres Candidate Kirchner Stern On Foreign Debt

BUENOS AIRES -- Government-backed presidential candidate Nestor Kirchner issued a warning to Argentina's foreign creditors Thursday, saying that if he wins Sunday's presidential election they will have to accept a large "haircut" on their holdings of defaulted debt.

"We are saying before the world, we want a cut in principal, the reprogramming of the debt and lower interest rates," Kirchner said at a meeting with foreign correspondents.

The Santa Cruz Governor gave no figures for what size cut in principal or interest rates he would ask for. However, in response to a question, he said the debt should be reprogrammed for a period "much longer" than 10 years………>wsj


04-25-03  Fox: Uru followers & Big Mac Index

http://www.economist.com/markets/bi...


04-25-03  savonarola: Menem in ABC....

If he wins, 40% should be a reasonable target for our Prov of BA <sea-urchins>

http://www.abc.es/internacional/not...

<... recibí una deuda externa de Raúl Alfonsín de 100.000 millones de dólares, porque había deuda oculta . Yo dejé 120.000 millones, equivalente al 43 por ciento del PIB, perfectamente aceptable según la normativa de Maastrich, y en tres años, los irresponsables que se hicieron cargo del Gobierno la llevaron a más de 160.000 millones. Cuando se vaya Duhalde estará en 180.000 millones, nos deja un paquete que el día que lo abramos es una carga explosiva. Nosotros vamos a pagarla ampliando los plazos pero sin pedir ninguna condonación. Ya estamos dialogando con los acreedores. Calculamos que en cuatro años de gobierno podemos estar creciendo más o menos un 30 ó 40 por ciento.>


04-25-03  Advice2: Down there you can see my last free writing for my internet colegues in Portuguese. Who understands portuguese can reasd it all down there but resuming I think markets in the very near future can be surprised with strong good news in Brazil after a profit taking, what means if you are not bought in Brazil untill your neck, you should increase in any weakness now. Markets are a little nervous and explaning the present profit taking in Brazil by the fact the energy prices will rise about 30% in reais over here. Very well, but this increases in energy prices were anounced when the dolar was trading at 3.30 and the common sence over here in Brazil was saying we would not see this dolar bellow 3.20. This means that the market is still making the counts with the real at 3.20-3.30, but the real is at 3 and we probably will drift bellow 3 very soon. Current account is in surplus over here and the capital account too, gazoline prices are about to fall and probably, market have not realized but the increase in energy prices will be a lot lower than announced and expected. This means there is no strong reason to buy this dolar at 3 and there are amounting reasons to sell it there, even tecnical or chart reasons are mounting and mounting.... The second thing that can surprise on the positive side the markets is the timing of the reforms. PT is buying large space on the midia and TV, including here the time between 7 and 10 at night, when tvs are turned on all around brasil to say to the public that Brasil needs the social security and fiscal reforms fast, to say that Brazilians want these reforms and that Brazil has to do this reforms to be more socialy right. I mean, there is every day propaganda defending the structural reforms on Brasil national television these days and these guys will surprise the market with a very positive timing of these reforms. And when I look at the prices Brasil is trading, specially stocks, I can not describe how crazy I think any one that sells these assets is with the scenarios we have ahead. Tecnicaly as well, things look prety nice on tecnicals as well and after this little profit taking indicators got soft and nice again to get back in or to increase if you are already in.

That is about what is wroten in Portuguese down there!

Good look to all colores, Brazil is FLY! USA stocks look set to give a lot of headake to short sellers as well, cause it is time to go back to risk and reduce CASH exposure all around the globe....

NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000

Prazo: Curto Prazo

Título: Ca estou eu a noite hoje foi boa e ja vou dormir....

Mas antes passei aqui para ver o que os colegas dizem....

Eu acho que as opinioes estam bem divididas e isto revela algo positivo...

Nathal, 2000 pontos de pica pra mim sao os mesmos 2000 pontos de pica pra qualquer um, so que meu preco medio nesta merda na compra ta la embaixo e o resto e giro, as vezes stop as vezes risadas, as vezes gargalhadas, mas isso e GIRO, se o mercado cair 2000 pontos amanha vai voltar pro meu preco medio de compra, um pouco acima e mesmo assim nao vai ter pica nenhuma, vai ter menos lucro e somente isso, se voce me entende.... Quanto a voce ter preconizado a baixa antes de todo mundo eu nao duvido, so acho que perdeu foi uns 1000 pontos na compra preconizando a baixa, pois como voce disse subia no final e voce nao conseguia ficar comprado o dia todo, foi assim por 1000 pontos nathal e agora caiu 300..... E estes 300 pra mim que comprei 1500 pontos pra baixo da ultima vez que enchi a mao mesmo nao significa nada de nada....

Longwave, porque voce escolheu somente minhas mensagens de ontem para colar ai? porque nao escolheu as da semana passada por exemplo? Cara seu ultimo coment[ario aqui antes de hoje dizia que voltariamos aos 10.000 pontos e subimos a 12.500 e o ultimo antes deste falava em 9.000 pontos e fomos a 11.000 pontos, voce errou, trocou o pe e todo mundo viu. Ai hoje entra dizendo que e 11.000? Pois eu acho que agora vamos para 13.500 pontinhos em pouco tempo..... Voce pode estar errado e eu posso estar errado, mas eu nao uso somente elliot, ou somente candles, ou somente medias, ou somente fundamentos, eu uso de tudo um pouco o que tem me dado alegrias por enquanto, entao vou continuar assim e mais uma vez o futuro nos dira quem tinha razao.....

Os pontos que debati hoje com alguns amigos do dinheiro e que devo passar para voces sao basicamente 2

1) Tem gente contando com os aumentos na energia eletrica para vender bolsa pois o efeito ser[a de 2.5% nos indices, como disse o Ricardo ai embaixo. Tem um detalhe, levantado na mesa por um banqueirozinho hoje. O ponto e que estes aumentos levam em consideracao um dolar a 3.30, pois o dolar nao ia abaixo de 3.20 nem a porrada, era isso que se dizia por ai na epoca que anunciaram estes aumentos da energia eletrica. Agora o dolar ta 3 paus e isso quer dizer 10% abaixo do que neguinho achou que ia estar. Resumindo, mercado pode muito bem ser surpreendido por um aumento menor do que o esperado para as tarifas publicas e uma queda maior do que a esperada da gazolina. Neguinho ta fazendo conta com dolar a 3.30 e o doleta ta 3 paus e se bobear vao enfiar a 3 paus logo mais..... Eu acho que vai ter surpresa boa de Brasil logo ai na frente e como a bolsa ta atrasada, a venda aqui se torna por demais arriscada apos uma realizacao de lucros, quem esta vendido melhor zerar rapido se nao tiram o doce da boca, alguem zera antes e ja elvis.....

2) Governo ta fazendo uma grande propaganda na midia, ate em horario nobre, sobre as reformas, dizendo que o povo quer reforma e o Brasil quer reforma e quer as reformas da previdencia e fiscal pra ja. Os caras vao conseguir adiantar este assunto logo mais e vai estar nos jornais tambem logo mais e a nao aprovacao destas reformas tem sido a desculpa do mercado para nao operar brasil nas mesmas taxas que opera mexico ou russia, portanto se neguinho conseguir avancar aqui meus amigos se preparem para ver o Brasil voar de verdade, o patamar que o Brasil opera hoje nao embute a aprovacao destas reformas no curto prazo e o Brasil me parece apto a receber um caralhao de upgrades e etc logo ai na frente e simplesmente mudar de patamar, o Brasil corre o risco de mudar de patamar em termos de mercado financeiro e oportunidades como esta, para nos que somos brasileiros e deveriamos conhecer ao menos o Brasil bem nao devem ser jogadas pela janela por medos antigos e noticias velhas e passadas.... Nossa conta corrente esta positiva caralho e a de capital tambem, quem quiser que compre este dolar, mas eu com conta corrente positiva e de capital tambem nao compro nada, nao vou contra fluxo em dolar nem aqui nem em lugar nenhum do mundo. E se o dolar nao subir meus amigos, voces podem muito bem ter surpresas em relacao aos aumentos de tarifas que estao esperando para vender bolsa, repito vender bolsa (O ativo mais atrasado nos precos de mercado) no Brasil...

Por hoje fico por aqui, a noite foi boa, o jantar estava otimo e depois do jantar o amor de minha vida estava mais linda do que nunca....

Boa sorte pra quem compra e todo azar do mundo pra quem ainda vende Brasil nestes patamares (principalmente bolsa) apos realizacao de lucros....


04-25-03  victorn: carib, is spal's track record always this good?

04-25-03  carib: <generous gentlemen>. Well, when SPAL attracted by attention on BLX, I had never heard about it, and one could buy its shares (if my memory is correct) for around 3 $ and change. I considered it an option on Argy/Brasil recovery, and started loading it when it got down to 2,2$. Today it closed at 7,6$. The margin allows for <generosity> I would say. Had I been brave enough to buy a few hundred thousand shares, A <full mountain> could be offered as a <tip>.

04-25-03  Patient-Trader: the North Korean side not only told the US delegation – led by assistant secretary of state James Kelly – that it did possess weapons but also that it would prove the fact "soon" implying it would conduct a test explosion, ... Pyongyang said via the state-controlled KCNA news agency that thanks to the US, "the situation on the Korean peninsula is so tense that a war may break out any moment. http://news.independent.co.uk/world...

04-25-03  victorn: <to offer you a full mountain>, nice to be surrounded by such generous gentlemen.


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