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Friday, April 25, '03
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 | SARS Economic Costs Spreading Faster 04-25-03 (Yahoo) The economic impact of SARS (news - web sites) is spreading faster than the virus as it threatens to evolve from a short-term blow to Asian demand into a shock capable of disrupting global trade and output.
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 | Failure to reform remains key obstacle to rapid global recovery: OECD 04-25-03 (Yahoo) With the Iraq (news - web sites) war over and oil prices stabilising, inadequate structural reform by Germany, Japan and a handful of other countries is one of the last remaining obstacles to a rapid global recovery, the OECD said. "The apparent rapid resolution to the conflict, and the more settled geopolitical climate that is assumed to follow, should allow investor and consumer confidence to strengthen gradually," the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its Economic Outlook report.
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 | World Bank warns of Sars effect 04-25-03 (BBC) The World Trade Organisation voiced similar fears, saying that growth in trade would remain below par this year after having shrunk in 2001. And the OECD club of rich nations warned in its semi-annual economic outlook that the economic impact on the region could be "significant", especially in the tourism and retail sectors.
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 | Opec trims oil output 04-25-03 (BBC) Members of the Opec oil cartel, meeting in Vienna, have agreed to cut crude oil supplies by two million barrels a day in an attempt to stop prices falling. Ministers representing the member states said the move involved reducing extra supplies introduced before the Iraq war, while simultaneously lifting official output quotas
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 | Iraq oil production back, Baghdad awaits crude supply 04-25-03 (Yahoo) Oil output has partially resumed in Iraq (news - web sites) but Baghdad's refinery urgently needs new crude that cannot come until war damage to a pipeline is repaired.
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 | Fair Trade Coffee Urged on Campuses 04-24-03 (Yahoo) As many as 200 schools, activists say, are responding to calls to change the way they purchase coffee so that poor farmers, mainly in Central America, get a bigger cut of the profit from the beans they grow. "You can make a difference for a child you've never met," said Cindy Megill, a junior at central Pennsylvania's Juniata College. "Or you can buy a cup of coffee with a corporate logo on it." Like students at other schools, Megill — a tea-drinker herself — is pushing Juniata to exclusively serve fair trade label coffee in campus dining halls and cafes.
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 | WTO Says Trade Up by 2.5 Percent in 2002 04-24-03 (Yahoo) Measured in revenue, exports of goods rose to $6.24 trillion in 2002. The report said "the largest single element in the global trade recovery of last year was North America," with a 3 percent increase in U.S. imports. U.S. exports fell by nearly 4 percent, partly because of reduced demand from trading partners with economic problems. Despite the improvement in imports in the United States, the continued economic sluggishness in many other markets led to lower inflation rates, worsening unemployment and a massive decline in international investment, which fell to $500 billion in 2002 from $1.2 trillion in 2000
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 | Apathy gives boost to Peronists 04-25-03 (sunspot.net) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - For many Argentines, former President Carlos Menem is synonymous with corruption and gangster-style politics. He has been arrested for suspected arms dealing and is widely resented for selling off every state-owned industry, from the oil company to the postal service. In power from 1989 to 1999, he is perhaps the most hated political figure in this nation of 37 million people - some pollsters say between 60 percent and 70 percent of the population would never vote for him under any circumstance.
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 | Chile’s President Lagos Struggles to Finish Term 04-25-03 (worldpress.org) Little more than a decade after the agonizing end of Chile's 17-year military dictatorship under Gen. Augusto Pinochet, the civilians who replaced him are wondering if they will manage to finish their current term of office.
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 | Colombia, Venezuela to discuss border 04-24-03 (miami.com) The blue-green mountains of the Perijá range that rise just a short distance west of this small Venezuelan town mark the official border with neighboring Colombia. But if border residents, and the Colombian government itself, are to be believed, the border these days is little more than a line on a map, left increasingly unprotected by the Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chávez, whom they accuse of allowing Colombian leftist guerrillas to cross back and forth virtually at will.
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 | Russian Merger Creates a New Oil Giant 04-24-03 (Washington Post) Russia's biggest oil company, Yukos, today announced a deal to buy another major Russian oil firm, Sibneft, a move they said would create the fourth-largest private oil producer in the world. Yukos said the new company would produce 2.3 million barrels of crude oil a day, an amount surpassed only by British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch/Shell Group. If measured by the volume of proven oil reserves it controls in the ground, the new company would rank higher than any other private oil company
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 | Africa wakes up to Sars 04-24-03 (BBC) African countries are stepping up measures at ports and airports to detect travellers who might be carrying the Sars virus. Many Beijing residents are anxious to leave This follows warnings that the pneumonia-like disease poses a particular threat to people whose immune systems have been weakened by Aids. So far the continent has not been affected by Sars, although one suspected case is being investigated in South Africa.
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 | Cut U.S. oil dependence by boosting fuel efficiency 04-25-03 (kansascity.com) The best time to start reducing the huge U.S. dependence on foreign oil is right now. The most critical task is to require that new American vehicles use gasoline more efficiently. The petroleum market is more stable than it has been in months. Oil prices are falling. Worldwide production is going up. Venezuela is selling as much crude as possible to recoup money lost during an oil workers' strike. On Wednesday, U.S.-led engineers began pumping the first postwar crude from Iraq's wells.
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 | OPEC to Cut Oil Output by 7 Percent 04-25-03 (Yahoo) At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries took the surprising step of temporarily raising its official output target to 25.4 million barrels, up 900,000 barrels a day from its existing ceiling.
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 | OPEC weighs all options to avoid postwar glut 04-25-03 (iht.com) < < Back to Start of Article VIENNA Seeking to stave off a postwar oil glut, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries prepared Wednesday to cut output significantly to support prices ahead of the eventual resumption of Iraqi oil exports.
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Newest messages appear on top.
04-25-03
panasonic:
<Argi> breaking news: Elisa Carrio leading polls according to "piggy" encuestadora...
04-25-03
Fox:
< <Kirchner buscará reprogramar la deuda a <<<no menos de 50 años>>>>
Nahhh...this cucaracho is in the business of <Perpetual Cero Bullit Bonds>
04-25-03
carib:
Fox: I thought you had sold it...
04-25-03
Fox:
<carib: BLX above 8$ ;-))))> It will double before yearend.
04-25-03
carib:
BLX above 8$ ;-))))
04-25-03
carib:
From Argy, let us see what comes out of the ballot boxes on sunday. Personally, I do not believe in a RSaa victory, so the alternative is betweensharp improvement and muddle on. A risk that has not been discussed is that the election is a tie (Murphy, Kirckner and Saa score about the same, and challange the "official" result).
04-25-03
wally:
<Good look> we do that always <advice>. or do you think we are bad looking?
04-25-03
Advice55:
About the numbers that came out in USA:1) The consumer confidence is always the first indicator to react, and it already did react, and it will react even stronger to the end of this little war.
2) The GDP number is always the last to react, the GDP and the unimployment rate are late comers. This GDP at 1.4% is not even close to a recession with deflation scenario witch has been priced in the stock and currency markets. It is bellow expectations? Yes it is, but it is far away from the deflation scenario that stocks markets are pricing in and the indicator still presents a very strong influence from the time this little war had not even begun. The numbers of the USA economy are not showing that we will see any double dip as stocks priced, they are showing that they are going to react very soon and Consumer confidence comes first. Beside that, earnings season will start very soon in USA and expectations about earnings were kept very low for the present coming season. This means high probability of strong good news ahead and market taking profits at the same time. Tecnicals look very good for buyers and markets are still at a 4 year low. When you put all this things toguether you can easly conclude that who sells risk, who sells USA stocks these days, is trading past news and is about to loose a lot of money in the coming sections.... Carefull on the sell side of stocks these days, markets can go up as well you know. Stocks are going down for 4 years now, soo a lot of people forget that stocks can rally as well.
About Brazil is what I said yesterday, strong good news are waiting you on the near future, do not miss this fly, get in at any weekness....
Good look
04-25-03
wally:
GS on BRL:
In light of the nascent confidence on the new
administration’s policies and gradual improvements
in the balance of payments, we are upgrading our
forecast for BRL to R$3.15, R$3.30, and R$3.50
from R$3.35, R$3.50, and R$3.75 for 3-, 6-, and
12-months. This compares with R$3.20, R$3.36,
and R$3.67 for the corresponding forward points.
Consistent with these changes, we are upgrading
our forecast for December 2003 to R$3.35 per U.S.
dollars from a previous R$3.75.
There are four reasons why we project a weaker
BRL relative to a R$3.02 per U.S. dollars spot.
First, inflation could remain above 1.0% per month.
Second, capital inflows could gyrate, particularly if
FDI inflows remain as weak as they have been
through April. Third, renewed global weaknesses
and gyrations in investors’ sentiment could very
well mute the modest pick up in debt creating
inflows to Brazil. Fourth, although the reform
process seems to be making encouraging progress,
Congressional approval could experience ups and
downs.
In any event, we believe that the risks to our
forecasts are on the upside for BRL, particularly if
FDI rebounds on the back of clearer and sounder
regulatory and pricing policies and the reform
approval process is swift. For the next four weeks,
we believe that BRL could strengthen from the
current spot level, particularly if the government
presents to Congress a strong pair of social security
and tax reforms with the support from state
governors and key opposition players, chiefly from
PSDB and PMDB.
04-25-03
Advice55:
NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000
Prazo: Curto Prazo
Título: Sobre la fora....
Apagar
1) O numero de confiança é sempre o primeiro a reagir e reagiu.
2) 1.4% de crescimento não é recessão nem la nos EUA nem na coxinxina. Abaixo das expectativas sim, mas isso não é recessão e este numero ainda tem forte influencia do clime que prevalecia antes da guerra, das incertezas de antes da guerra. Os numeros nos EUA vão melhorar em breve e a confiança do consumidor ja mostra isso. Alem disto estamos entrando em época de divulgação de resultados por lá e as expectativas para os resultados foram todas mantidas muito baixas, ou seja, tem espeaço para noticia boa pra dedeu la fora ai na frente e o cenário de recessão com deflação vai aos poucos caindo por terra ainda que até agora poucos tenham percebido.
3) Configuração gráfica esta boa para uma bela porrada pra cima na semana que vem la fora....
Sobre Brasil é o que eu disse ontem e repito aqui embaixo hoje:
Quem vende Brasil, principalmente bolsa, neste patamar, é OTARIO!
Os pontos que debati hoje com alguns amigos do dinheiro e que devo passar para voces sao basicamente 2
1) Tem gente contando com os aumentos na energia eletrica para vender bolsa pois o efeito ser[a de 2.5% nos indices, como disse o Ricardo ai embaixo. Tem um detalhe, levantado na mesa por um banqueirozinho hoje. O ponto e que estes aumentos levam em consideracao um dolar a 3.30, pois o dolar nao ia abaixo de 3.20 nem a porrada, era isso que se dizia por ai na epoca que anunciaram estes aumentos da energia eletrica. Agora o dolar ta 3 paus e isso quer dizer 10% abaixo do que neguinho achou que ia estar. Resumindo, mercado pode muito bem ser surpreendido por um aumento menor do que o esperado para as tarifas publicas e uma queda maior do que a esperada da gazolina. Neguinho ta fazendo conta com dolar a 3.30 e o doleta ta 3 paus e se bobear vao enfiar a 3 paus logo mais..... Eu acho que vai ter surpresa boa de Brasil logo ai na frente e como a bolsa ta atrasada, a venda aqui se torna por demais arriscada apos uma realizacao de lucros, quem esta vendido melhor zerar rapido se nao tiram o doce da boca, alguem zera antes e ja elvis.....
2) Governo ta fazendo uma grande propaganda na midia, ate em horario nobre, sobre as reformas, dizendo que o povo quer reforma e o Brasil quer reforma e quer as reformas da previdencia e fiscal pra ja. Os caras vao conseguir adiantar este assunto logo mais e vai estar nos jornais tambem logo mais e a nao aprovacao destas reformas tem sido a desculpa do mercado para nao operar brasil nas mesmas taxas que opera mexico ou russia, portanto se neguinho conseguir avancar aqui meus amigos se preparem para ver o Brasil voar de verdade, o patamar que o Brasil opera hoje nao embute a aprovacao destas reformas no curto prazo e o Brasil me parece apto a receber um caralhao de upgrades e etc logo ai na frente e simplesmente mudar de patamar, o Brasil corre o risco de mudar de patamar em termos de mercado financeiro e oportunidades como esta, para nos que somos brasileiros e deveriamos conhecer ao menos o Brasil bem nao devem ser jogadas pela janela por medos antigos e noticias velhas e passadas.... Nossa conta corrente esta positiva caralho e a de capital tambem, quem quiser que compre este dolar, mas eu com conta corrente positiva e de capital tambem nao compro nada, nao vou contra fluxo em dolar nem aqui nem em lugar nenhum do mundo. E se o dolar nao subir meus amigos, voces podem muito bem ter surpresas em relacao aos aumentos de tarifas que estao esperando para vender bolsa, repito vender bolsa (O ativo mais atrasado nos precos de mercado) no Brasil...
Por hoje fico por aqui, a noite foi boa, o jantar estava otimo e depois do jantar o amor de minha vida estava mais linda do que nunca....
Boa sorte pra quem compra e todo azar do mundo pra quem ainda vende Brasil nestes patamares (principalmente bolsa) apos realizacao de lucros....
04-25-03
wally:
< carib: Opti: how low would you expect RF 28 to possibly go?> this kind of classified information is available in only Fiji 3½ over Dim Sum!
04-25-03
wally:
<Mexico went down on HongKong from 130 to 95> more. i bought on black monday oct97 UMS26 for 91! Bra26 came down from 102 and was available on tuesday morning for 78, in the afternoon back to 86 on short-covering.
04-25-03
carib:
Opti: how low would you expect RF 28 to possibly go?
04-25-03
optimist:
Well the credit of choice back then - Mexico went down on HongKong from 130 to 95... Now the credit of choice is russia.. and i expect simial performance, should the knot slip... Really looking for a good entry point in 6-months put position..
04-25-03
wally:
<optimist: The behaviour of russian and basically other EMD reminds me seasonally of that in 1997..> believe it or not! i was discussing the same with <c-banker> some days ago. of course he does not care because he is THE REAL OPTIMIST.
04-25-03
optimist:
The behaviour of russian and basically other EMD reminds me seasonally of that in 1997.. Exuberance, highs every quarter till July - then first ring (in 97 it was Thai blood-baht).. Then recovery and ultimate highs in late september.. Then - Hong Kong.. I am a bit supersticious, and i think this year the pattern can repeat itself;))
04-25-03
Juliano:
Wally Thank's,I bought at 64.80 including comission.
Regards. Juliano
04-25-03
amigo latino:
If the Ecu 12 reaches 100, the Ecu 30 should reach 85-90( Eu 30 has a 40% higher cpn than Rus 30 whose price is close to 89. Ecu 30 7% cpn in 3 mos raching 10% in 2007 in steps vs Rus 30 5% to 2007 and then 7.5%). If the time frame is less than a year (for Ecu12 to reach 100), Ecu 30 will have a higher appreciation potential—50%( even after taking into current yield in consideration ) vs 30% for Ecu 12. ….
04-25-03
wally:
<Juliano: Hi Wally. Do you have any opinion about buying Venezuela 27 at 65 and lower?> bought today!
04-25-03
Juliano:
Hi Wally. Do you have any opinion about buying Venezuela 27 at 65 and lower? I just got some information from uruguay that there is some good article from Resner saying the the willingbes of Venezuela to pay the debt is vey strong and with the price of the petrol over 20 there will be no problem to pay.I am buying at this price and lower.
Regards.Juliano
04-25-03
carib:
<50 anos> better than Rsaa, who would offer 0% perpetuals...
04-25-03
wally:
<Short time is nearing on RFs ;)))> kop khun kap <opti>!
04-25-03
wally:
<carib: I see nice guano- exuberance. Fine.> NOT fine! makes me suspicious and considering to sell! :~(((
04-25-03
wally:
<Kirchner buscará reprogramar la deuda a <<<no menos de 50 años>>> El candidato presidencial por el Frente para la Victoria, Néstor Kirchner, planteó la necesidad de una reprogramación de la deuda externa a 50 años que permita la viabilidad económica de la Argentina, y ratificó su propuesta de un modelo con "mucha inversión pública" para salir de la crisis.
"Tenemos que hablar por una reprogramación de deuda que tiene que tener estratégicamente por lo menos 50 años, como para determinar la viabilidad de la Argentina", afirmó el candidato.>
cheers!
04-25-03
carib:
I see nice guano- exuberance. Fine. Assuming the 12 goes to PAR, where would the 30 trade? 80? that would give a yield around 13% (by 2006). In that case the 30 could have a capital gain of another 37%, against the 25% capital gain of the 12. Assume Guano yields go down to Colombia levels, and Guano 30 goes above par, with a 75% gain. In that case, I guess Pozo will buy back the 12 (he has to retire a lot of them anyway starting 2006) and issue a new Ecu 2014 9% to get the necessary funds. But to be realistic, let us wait to see if Ecu goes on climbing first.
04-25-03
Zephyr:
<So first Guano has to retire the bond. Then rates must fall and then Citi can arrange a deal. > I probably am not explaining it well.Yes, Guano might retire the 12% bonds first and then issue new bonds. That would make it easier.
However, it doesn't have to go this way. Guano could issue on other parts of the curve at different rates and use that money to retire the 12% bonds later. If Guano discovers 50 Billion barrels of oil in the Galapagos, it will be a AAA credit. If Ecuador then decides to raise a new $1B issue, people will lend to them at 6%. (even if the 12% bonds haven't been retired yet because they know those bonds will be called very soon). That is an extreme example, but it will happen somewhere above 6% and below 12% if Ecuador continues to improve.
Anyway, I hope we have these problems sometime in the near future. Given their past track record, we have room for plenty of surprises.
04-25-03
optimist:
Wally: the real signal to sell RFs wil come when i decide to buy anything on some stupid rationales - well .. er.. you know, the the curve to steep, rf30 - good value, bla bla.. But in the meantime i ll say: Short time is nearing on RFs ;)))
04-25-03
wally:
<opti> you are doing a sloppy job talking down RF! bid for 28 just above 152.
04-25-03
wally:
<because Pozo retired them> YES!
04-25-03
savonarola:
<and can not yield more according to the call><less> of course
04-25-03
savonarola:
zephir .. may be I am stupid today .. but either you are economizing words and not explaining yourself clearly or something is wrong with your rationale. Mex is not an example becuase of the zeros.Again.... Guano thing are improving. Guano bonds have been going up, the 12s finally reach 100%. Colores, except me, are all delirious, buying mountains, islands and entire crops of Chateau Petrus.
We are there... how will Guano rates fall below 12% to 11.99% unless the bond that yields 12% <and can not yield more according to the call> is retired. Unless rates can fall first to 11.99% they will never get to 6% and Citibank will never arrange any bond. So first Guano has to retire the bond. Then rates must fall and then Citi can arrange a deal.
04-25-03
savonarola:
wally .. what do you mean? Will the 12s not exist anymore because we are <all dead> or because Pozo retired them?
04-25-03
optimist:
There's gonna be display on CNBC on Argie elections with some Oxford guy - it says in 80 minutes they ll start it..
04-25-03
Zephyr:
<who would buy that debt given that there are bonds around yelding 12%?> It happens all the time, just not usually in emerging markets. Goldman, Merrill, Citibank, or someone will come in and do the deal. They may arrange a bridge loan or something. All the holders of 12% Guano would then have no Guano bonds in their portfolio. Some of them will come in and buy the new deal. The bankers will find buyers for the rest.Mexico recently called some of their discount bonds(and I believe Par bonds)...same type of situation.
04-25-03
wally:
sh*t! now the stupid Uru27/33 have run away. just when i made up my mind to buy a wee bit more :~(((
04-25-03
wally:
<savo <If Guano becomes AAA and can issue debt at 6%, who would buy that debt given that there are bonds around yelding 12%?>> anybody who is interested in Guano would buy because the 12% wouldn't exist anymore.
04-25-03
wally:
<Amateur: Considering the call, if we expect Guano to yield 10% one day, one should switch from 12s to 30s> as seen from a trading point of view = YES; looking at the cash-flow with a clipper's eye = NO.
04-25-03
savonarola:
zephir ... sorry ... I still don't see it ... If Guano becomes AAA and can issue debt at 6%, who would buy that debt given that there are bonds around yelding 12%?ON the margin ... how could Guano yield curve fall from 12% to 11.99%? There will always be this Guano 12 around putting a floor below which Guano rates can not go.
In a way ... this call is extremely expensive for Pozo and he should retire this bond as soon as posible. Once the bond does not exist anymore, then the yield curve will be able to fall and Guano issue debt below 12%.
04-25-03
wally:
< panasonic: <Savo> anyway, I'm glad to read we are worried about Guano's calls :-))> i concur! :~)))
04-25-03
Amateur:
Considering the call, if we expect Guano to yield 10% one day, one should switch from 12s to 30s.

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