 |
Emerging Markets |
Posted by
BradyNet
(
Friday, May 2, '03
)
| |
|
|
*NEW*
Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar
|

 | The politics of anti-politics 05-02-03 (BBC) Most people know what the wide range of groups which come together on May Day are against - capitalism or globalisation - but do they have any alternative plan? One of the most memorable banners from the May Day protests is the one urging activists to "overthrow capitalism and replace it with something nicer".
 |
 | Firms escape May Day wrath 05-02-03 (BBC) Fears multinational companies would be the target of violence during May Day demonstrations in central London have proved groundless. Some businesses told staff to stay at home, while others stepped up security ahead of the march. Oil and arms companies, firms with connections to Iraq and government buildings were thought to be possible targets for anti-capitalist protesters. In past years marches have become violent with the more extreme demonstrators smashing windows and forcing their way into buildings.
 |
 | Jobs scarce for new college grads 05-02-03 (sfgate.com) The landscape remains bleak for this year's crop of college graduates. The economy is still weak. Many employers are hesitant to hire. And the competition is fierce for the few jobs available. Grad school is looking better and better. "They can expect it will be bleak," said Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager at the National Association of Colleges and Employers. "It's pretty much a continuation of what the new grads saw last year." A recent association survey found that more than 42 percent of employers expect to cut college hiring this year, while around 36 percent said they planned to hire more new graduates and 21 percent said they will hire the same number.
 |
 | Cuts wont end deficit 05-02-03 (madison.com) The layoff notices are being prepared. Programs are being shut down. State government is getting a little leaner and a whole lot meaner. And Gov. Jim Doyle and members of the state Legislature are preparing to implement a new state budget plan that promises more of the same. Doyle and the leaders of the state Assembly and Senate may argue about specifics. But they are agreed on the principle that the only way they are prepared to eliminate the state's deep budget deficit is with deep cuts in state services.
 |
 | Economy Bleeds Jobs as Industry Assailed 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Even productivity, the much-applauded paradigm of the new economy, proved weaker than expected in the first quarter, suggesting employers are finding it harder to squeeze more output from their workers. This might actually be a good thing if companies reacted by taking on more people, but all the signs are the economy is still bleeding jobs. "The economy is running at recessionary levels again," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial. "There's across-the-board weakness. It does not bode well for tomorrow's jobs report."
 |
 | Productivity Growth Weaker Than Expected 05-02-03 (Yahoo) The gain was smaller than expectations. Economists in a Reuters poll forecast, on average, that productivity would rise by 2.1 percent. Even so, economists were not surprised by the latest data because the government reported last week the economy grew by a weak 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
 |
 | US boosts productivity, but grim news ahead for jobless 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Meanwhile, the number of people making new applications for jobless benefits remained well above 400,000, easing just 13,000 to 448,000 people last week, the government said. A four-week average of new jobless claims edged up 1,250 to 442,000, the highest level in a year. "The jobless claims figures are looking really horrible," Guatieri said, forecasting grim April unemployment rate numbers, which are due to be released Friday.
 |

 | Sour Lake suit finally gets trial -- in Ecuador 05-02-03 (sfgate.com) (When Texaco quit drilling in Ecuador in 1992 after nearly 30 years, it left behind what critics describe as an enormous toxic dump of 1.8 million gallons of spilled crude oil -- almost twice the size of the Exxon Valdez spill. But next Tuesday, 30,000 jungle residents of Ecuador and Peru whose natural surroundings were forever spoiled will finally get their day in court.
 |
 | Five dead, thousands evacuated in Argentina floods 05-01-03 (Yahoo) Argentina (AFP) - Five people are dead and 60,000 forced from their homes in central Argentina, officials said, amid widespread flooding that President Eduardo Duhalde has dubbed a "national catastrophe
 |
 | Argentina declares flood disaster 05-01-03 (BBC) The authorities in Santa Fe, northern Argentina, have evacuated at least 50,000 people amid the most severe flooding in the province's history. Local officials say that seven people are known to have died in Santa Fe province, with another man dead in neighbouring Entre Rios.
 |

 | DOH: SARS watch in Baguio 05-01-03 (philstar.com) BAGUIO CITY — Worries about a possible outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in this city have intensified after health officials officially listed a female Indian missionary as a suspected SARS case. Officials said they have also isolated four persons, including two foreigners, who have had contact with the 21-year-old Indian.
 |

 | Exxon Mobil profit surges to 7.04 billion dollars 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Net earnings included a 550 million dollar gain boost from a required accounting change and a one-time gain of 1.7 billion dollars from the transfer of shares in Ruhrgas AG to E.ON AG in March of this year. Excluding the accounting change gains, a special item, merger effects and discontinued operations, earnings increased to 4.79 billion dollars, or 71 cents per share. The figure beat First Call/Thomson Financial consensus by one cent.
 |
 | Exxon Mobil profit surges to $7.04 billion 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Net earnings included a 550 million dollar gain boost from a required accounting change and a one-time gain of 1.7 billion dollars from the transfer of shares in Ruhrgas AG to E.ON AG in March of this year. Excluding the accounting change gains, a special item, merger effects and discontinued operations, earnings increased to 4.79 billion dollars, or 71 cents per share. The figure beat First Call/Thomson Financial consensus by one cent.
 |
 | Nigeria sends warships to free oil rig hostages 05-02-03 (guardian.co.uk) Nigerian navy ships were steaming towards four offshore oil rigs last night to confront striking workers who have held dozens of British and US colleagues hostage in a two-week stand-off. A navy spokesman said the warships would use force if necessary to take control of the rigs and rescue the expatriates, prompting concern that the strikers would destroy the installations. Talks between the strikers' union and the American drilling company which operates the rigs were deadlocked in Port Harcourt last night. Relatives of the hostages feared the navy's deployment would scupper chances of a peaceful outcome.
 |
 | At Iraqi Oil Plant, Bitterness and Idleness 05-02-03 (Washington Post) The oil workers stood listlessly in front of the plant, hair blown brittle by a dusty wind, as they shared cigarettes and bitterness for lack of anything else to do. They complained about the looting that has left them without a chair to sit on, let alone a tool to wield. They worried about whether the state oil company can continue to pay them. They wondered when crude might again flow thick through their oil-gas separation plant, bound for the refinery up the road in Basra.
 |
 | Iraq success boosts US market 05-01-03 (abc.net.au) The success of US-led forces in Iraq has sparked a big lift in consumer confidence in the United States. Together with some encouraging profit reports, that has raised hopes of improved economic prospects. The impact on Wall Street has been positive overall, although there has been a reasonable amount of see-sawing in share prices. The rise in US consumer confidence has been the biggest in 12 years. The private-sector Conference Board's April measure has surged 19.6 points to 81, with American households reassured by the quick outcome in Iraq.
 |
| |


Newest messages appear on top.
05-02-03
wally:
<carib: Wally/Fox: are you going to have a joint birthday party?> we have plans but the final decision is with <Mrs Zorrito>.
05-02-03
carib:
Wally/Fox: are you going to have a joint birthday party?
05-02-03
carib:
Alex <not me>, you see, with a very good king, a monarchy is a great idea...but if the great man's son is an asshole...a republic is better. Besides, if if you have two persons or more claiming the throne, you need a war, rather than an election...
05-02-03
wally:
<will you finally sell your MATKA?> yes <glut> i will. waiting for <opti> to place his put and then i sell all POCCIA MATKA @ 159.625
05-02-03
wally:
<Uncrowned??? Why??? Uncrowned!!!> ok ok ok <zorrito> we are going to buy <alex> a paper crown but only if he attends your and my birthday party in november!
05-02-03
leo:
Gua guano 30 trading at 63.8\64.8.......
05-02-03
Glutt:
<wally: some madmen are offering RF28 @ <158.750>!!! > i see bid 155.75 no offer on broker... have not seen this clownish offer you tell... will you finally sell your MATKA?
05-02-03
wally:
divorced my D€ntist Ukraine at 108.25
05-02-03
rolfkoch:
bua96 b/a 24/26 volume 195.000/55.000
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<05-02-03 carib: I thought we were a <republic>..... >>>not me !
http://www.koninklijkhuis.nl/welkom...
05-02-03
carib:
I thought we were a <republic>.....
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<Then why not buying Disco, Ahold's argi sub, which trades in the 70s and has a 101 change of control put>>>thanks, good idea, will buy these too !!!!!!!!!
05-02-03
SPAL:
<there can be only King one and that is Prof W !!!!!!!!!!!!> Long live the King!!
05-02-03
savonarola:
alex...<Bought some AHOLD, late but the stuff moves UP>Then why not buying Disco, Ahold's argi sub, which trades in the 70s and has a 101 change of control put.
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<perhaps in a few days you are the uncrowned "colores king"! >>> there can be only King one and that is Prof W !!!!!!!!!!!!Bought some AHOLD, late but the stuff moves UP
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<These have done plasctic surgery with Ivo pitanguy!!! :-))))>>> good job, they look much niceier now ;-)))
05-02-03
manya:
Argentine Central Bank President Alfonso Prat-Gay tried to reassure investors today that Argentina's economic performance will continue to improve. Mr. Prat-Gay met with investors
today in New York. He made the following points: (1) Growth is significant. According to Prat-
Gay, first-quarter real GDP probably grew at 10% annualized from fourth quarter 2002. With a
still large output gap, the economy has plenty of room to grow without investment. Although
consumption is a major growth driver, the central bank president expects exports to be a
significant source of growth going forward. (2) The peso is still undervalued. Despite recent
currency appreciation, the peso is still 40% below pre-devaluation levels and below the average
real exchange rate of the 1990s, according to Mr. Prat-Gay. (3) There has been a massive fiscal
adjustment. Primary spending (excluding debt service) fell from around 30% of GDP to 22%.
(4) Negotiations with the IMF are underway. Mr. Prat-Gay was pleasantly surprised with the IMF
negotiations. He said that, at least in monetary matters, the IMF seems more open-minded. (5)
The main goal of his tenure (which by law should end on September 2004) is to turn the
Argentina central bank into a normally functioning central bank. A specific goal is to develop
local instruments and other appropriate tools to do conduct open market operations. (6) Inflation
could remain low. According to Prat-Gay, April inflation was +0.2% and May could be negative.
In our view, low inflation could be constructive for the currency. (7) There is eagerness to
negotiate external debt. Although Mr. Prat-Gay is not in charge of the negotiations, he believes
that the sooner the negotiations take place the more debt relief the government may obtain. Also,
uncertainty over debt valuations may delay the normalization of the banking system. Prat-Gay
suggested that bank lending, financial intermediation, and monetary policy could all return to a
more normal footing if doubts over the external debt are eased. (8) With regard to public sector
tariffs, Prat-Gay indicated that there is consensus for a long-term negotiated solution. He believes
that utility prices may have to be increased, but relatively modestly, say, 15%-20%. Given that
utility prices are just 15% of the consumer basket, the impact should be manageable. (9) A major
pending issue will be to determine capital adequacy rules for the banks. He is strongly in favor of
giving banks a chance to meet minimum capital standards and not force them to close if they are
below minimum when the rules are announced. In this regard, foreign banks are on the sidelines
so far. They are assuming a "wait and see" attitude.
05-02-03
carib:
<she bond vs BR40> well, the C bond is unlikely to go to 110, the 40 can.
I regret not buying back @58 my old BR 09 14,5%...that are now offered @118...
05-02-03
Fox:
<She Bond vs. Braz 40>I think we did OK here right?
I mean during the crisis the Cbond never went to the 46 of the Braz40 right?
05-02-03
Fox:
<uncrowned "colores king"!> Uncrowned??? Why??? Uncrowned!!!
05-02-03
carib:
Wally: it's pointless to discuss my personal opinion, because I am not in charge of Argy. Offering a bond without haircut and paying what the euro-dentists are getting on their bank deposits would be a signal "we recognize our debt in full" Clearly Argentina cannot pay 10% on her unhaircutted debt now. So a mecanism should be found to make the payment increase in time. this can be done with a step up, or with a mechanism as I described. My opinion is that the bast way remains buying back most of the debt at deeply discounted prices.
Defaultes bonded external debt is around 65 bill. at 20 flat it was one year of trade surplus.
05-02-03
wally:
<RF a little high for my taste> you forecasted 160 in december <alex>. perhaps in a few days you are the uncrowned "colores king"!
05-02-03
Fox:
<are these the same we bought some months ago at 46 ???> No hell No!!!These have done plasctic surgery with Ivo pitanguy!!! :-))))
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<Bra40 ask <91>. thank you <cheetah> for your call to SELL Brazil!>>>are these the same we bought some months ago at 46 ???
05-02-03
Alexander:
<<<05-02-03 wally: some madmen are offering RF28 @ <158.750>!!! >>>and I bot some €URU11 and $Veni27 today, RF a little high for my taste
05-02-03
Fox:
<02/05/2003 - 10h39
Balança tem em abril maior superávit desde 1988
PATRÍCIA ZIMMERMANN
da Folha Online, em Brasília
A balança comercial registrou um superávit de US$ 1,714 bilhão no mês de abril, com um total de US$ 5,711 bilhões em exportações e US$ 3,997 bilhões em importações. O resultado é o melhor para o mês de abril desde 1988, quando a balança registrou um superávit de US$ 1,895 bilhão.
Com o saldo do mês, o comércio exterior alcançou um superávit de US$ 5,474 bilhões no ano. De janeiro a abril, as exportações totalizaram US$ 20,756 bilhões e as importações US$ 15,282 bilhões.
Nos quatro primeiros meses do ano passado, o saldo comercial foi de US$ 1,524 bilhão, período em que as vendas externas somaram US$ 16,532 bilhões e as compras US$ 15,008 bilhões.
Na última semana do mês de abril (de 28 a 30), que contou com três dias úteis, o saldo comercial foi de US$ 229 milhões, com exportações de US$ 837 milhões e importações de US$ 608 milhões.
A média diária das exportações na semana foi de US$ 279 milhões contra uma média de US$ 202,7 milhões para as importações. No mês, a média diária das exportações alcançou US$ 285,6 milhões e a das importações US$ 199,9 milhões. E no ano, a média das vendas externas ficou em US$ 256,2 milhões e das compras US$ 188,7 milhões.
O resultado da balança comercial para o mês de abril foi divulgado hoje pela Secretaria de Comércio Exterior do Ministério do Desenvolvimento.>
05-02-03
wally:
some madmen are offering RF28 @ <158.750>!!!
05-02-03
wally:
<If It was up to me, I would offer new long bonds at libor flat (which today is extremely low, so debt service would be minimal) but with a warrant that makes them convertible into any new bond Argy might issue in the future at higher rates>where's the beef <carib>?
05-02-03
Fox:
<A poitnless exercise of trying to fight <colores wisdom>>
<A poitnless exercise of trying to fight <colores wisdom>>
<A poitnless exercise of trying to fight <colores wisdom>>
..............
05-02-03
carib:
<pernacchi> is a neapolitan term. It translates in sicilian as <piriti>. imagining an Argy swap based on Uru is IMHO impossible. The creditors would certainly like that, but it is un-imaginable. Argentina is in default, and was paying high interest on her debt, which implied the need of 100% rollover.
The only thing we know is the more reasonable the offer, the more likely it is to be accepted, and the shorter the waiting period until Argy can borrow again.
If It was up to me, I would offer new long bonds at libor flat (which today is extremely low, so debt service would be minimal) but with a warrant that makes them convertible into any new bond Argy might issue in the future at higher rates, so that it would be Argy interest to buy back most of the libor bonds before issuing new ones.
But I am not a bandit, so my idea is utterly irrelevant.
05-02-03
wally:
and special thanks to you <cheetah> for your call selling FARC and cANAL! :~)))
05-02-03
wally:
<A poitnless exercise of trying to fight <colores wisdom>>savvvvvooooooooooooooooooooo! look at the screens! ANYWHERE!
Bra40 ask <91>. thank you <cheetah> for your call to SELL Brazil!
05-02-03
Fox:
<Duration YTM Current Yield Ecuador 12 4.85 14.63 13.86
Ecuador 30 6.91 14.28 9.26>Let me try again:
Duration: 12 4.85/ 30 6.91
YTM: 12 14.63%/ 30 14.28%
Current Yield: 12 13.86%/ 30 9.26%
05-02-03
savonarola:
Unfaithful sellers of Prov of BA CHs should know that it is trading 6% up today, on a swiss friday which is like a sunday in the US.
05-02-03
Fox:
<Eventually <monkeys>> With yields of the 12 of 9%Cocerning the 12 or the 30 I know you guys have discussed this @ length I simply hold the 12s because:
Duration YTM Current Yield
Ecuador 12 4.85 14.63 13.86
Ecuador 30 6.91 14.28 9.26
05-02-03
savonarola:
Fox..<Ecuador: 28.4%>Eventually <monkeys> will realise that post-OCP Guano will receive in oil revenues the same % of the budget as Veni. With the difference that Veni has <Castro-Chavez>, while Guano has <Thatcher-Guti>.
Hence Guano should trade substantially tighter than Veni.
05-02-03
Fox:
1990-2000 Savings Rate as % of GDP
Argy: 15%
Braz: 20%
Chile: 24.5%
Colombia:13.3%
Costa Rica: 18.9%
Ecuador: 28.4%
EL Salvador: 1.8%
Mexico: 21.5%
Panama: 24.1%
Peru: 18.2%
Uruguay: 12.5%
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
05-02-03
SPAL:
Pinned hiker cuts off arm
Aspenite amputates after 5 days under boulder in Utah
By Nancy Lofholm, Denver Post Western http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0...
05-02-03
savonarola:
And in the meantime, 12s are nowhere to be found while the street still cries in desbelief, looking at their once again short positions, which the regret having taken, doing what they can to get prices lower, like lowering the bid, always without success, before having to lift the offer again before the end of the day and book, as they always do, a loss.A poitnless exercise of trying to fight <colores wisdom>.
05-02-03
savonarola:
zephir.. the 30s have a longer duration therefore should outperfrom <ceteris paribus>, ie if the spread differential between the two remains the same. If they revert, meaning that the 12s trade tigher than the 30s, as it should be the case (because among other things the reinstatement clause loses value), then you might still have the 12 outperforming the 30s on a total return basis.But of course there is the <call> which God knows what it means.
05-02-03
Fox:
Stratfor
<Turkey: Another Coup in the Making?
May 01, 2003
Summary
Tension between Turkey's Islamic-led coalition government and the secular military has risen sharply following the war in Iraq. A recent statement by Turkey's National Security Council raises the question of whether a military coup might again be possible.>
Full Analysis:
http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/turkey/...
05-02-03
Zephyr:
I agree that the 12's were better than the 30's especially when the 12's briefly dropped below 50. Last October, the 12's hit a low around 44, the 30's around 34. Since then, the 12's have gained 40 points and the 30's a little under 30 points.
Currently, IMO, the 30's are better. You get less current yield, but this is compensated by a better price upside/downside.
05-02-03
savonarola:
zephir..<At current prices, if you want to be in Ecaudor bonds, I think the 2030 is a better bond with more upside and also less downside>That has been an ongoing debate. However, last Nov 02, we run some calculations and discussed them with Amateur, carib and Wally. In those days the 12s were trading 400 bp wider than the 30s. Now, its is less than 100 bp. Meaning, that on a total return basis the 12s performed better. And it makes sense. The lower spread in the 30s, at that time was explained, wrongly in my opinion, by the fact that having the 30s a lower prices they offered lower downside.
As the 12s are still trading wider than the 30s, the previous rationale still applies, except for the fact that you brought up that Call problem, which I find difficult to figure out.
Excluding the Call, I believe that the 12s should still outperform the 30s, contrary to common wisdom, because, as in any other country where there is not inmediate risk of default, shorter dated bonds trade at a lower spread than longer dated ones.
05-02-03
Zephyr:
Savo <Not please based on Guano discovering a new oil field with 1 trillon barrels of oil. > hehehe<Is it posible that Guano 30 trade at let's say 8% YTM, and the 12s still trade at 12% YTM????> This is not probable. You could get a yield difference, maybe 10% vs 12%, but if the 30's continued to rally, it is likely that Ecuador could be able and would access the new issuance market.
At current prices, if you want to be in Ecaudor bonds, I think the 2030 is a better bond with more upside and also less downside.

Index of older articles by date
*NEW* Historical archive from 1998-1999
Please read our disclaimer.
Home Page |
BradyNet Pro |
Search |
CyberExchange
Forfaiting |
Closing Prices |
Live Prices |
New Issues |
Ratings
BradyNet Tour |
BradyNet FORUMs |
BradyNet Email Directory |
Index (Site Map)
Analysis & Research |
BradyNet Center |
News |
Jobs
General Correspondence: bradynet@bradynet.com
Questions/Problems? support@bradynet.com
This site copyright © 1995-2000 BradyNet.com