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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, May 2, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*The politics of anti-politics 05-02-03 (BBC) Most people know what the wide range of groups which come together on May Day are against - capitalism or globalisation - but do they have any alternative plan? One of the most memorable banners from the May Day protests is the one urging activists to "overthrow capitalism and replace it with something nicer".
*Firms escape May Day wrath 05-02-03 (BBC) Fears multinational companies would be the target of violence during May Day demonstrations in central London have proved groundless. Some businesses told staff to stay at home, while others stepped up security ahead of the march. Oil and arms companies, firms with connections to Iraq and government buildings were thought to be possible targets for anti-capitalist protesters. In past years marches have become violent with the more extreme demonstrators smashing windows and forcing their way into buildings.
*Jobs scarce for new college grads 05-02-03 (sfgate.com) The landscape remains bleak for this year's crop of college graduates. The economy is still weak. Many employers are hesitant to hire. And the competition is fierce for the few jobs available. Grad school is looking better and better. "They can expect it will be bleak," said Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager at the National Association of Colleges and Employers. "It's pretty much a continuation of what the new grads saw last year." A recent association survey found that more than 42 percent of employers expect to cut college hiring this year, while around 36 percent said they planned to hire more new graduates and 21 percent said they will hire the same number.
*Cuts wont end deficit 05-02-03 (madison.com) The layoff notices are being prepared. Programs are being shut down. State government is getting a little leaner and a whole lot meaner. And Gov. Jim Doyle and members of the state Legislature are preparing to implement a new state budget plan that promises more of the same. Doyle and the leaders of the state Assembly and Senate may argue about specifics. But they are agreed on the principle that the only way they are prepared to eliminate the state's deep budget deficit is with deep cuts in state services.
*Economy Bleeds Jobs as Industry Assailed 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Even productivity, the much-applauded paradigm of the new economy, proved weaker than expected in the first quarter, suggesting employers are finding it harder to squeeze more output from their workers. This might actually be a good thing if companies reacted by taking on more people, but all the signs are the economy is still bleeding jobs. "The economy is running at recessionary levels again," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial. "There's across-the-board weakness. It does not bode well for tomorrow's jobs report."
*Productivity Growth Weaker Than Expected 05-02-03 (Yahoo) The gain was smaller than expectations. Economists in a Reuters poll forecast, on average, that productivity would rise by 2.1 percent. Even so, economists were not surprised by the latest data because the government reported last week the economy grew by a weak 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
*US boosts productivity, but grim news ahead for jobless 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Meanwhile, the number of people making new applications for jobless benefits remained well above 400,000, easing just 13,000 to 448,000 people last week, the government said. A four-week average of new jobless claims edged up 1,250 to 442,000, the highest level in a year. "The jobless claims figures are looking really horrible," Guatieri said, forecasting grim April unemployment rate numbers, which are due to be released Friday.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Sour Lake suit finally gets trial -- in Ecuador 05-02-03 (sfgate.com) (When Texaco quit drilling in Ecuador in 1992 after nearly 30 years, it left behind what critics describe as an enormous toxic dump of 1.8 million gallons of spilled crude oil -- almost twice the size of the Exxon Valdez spill. But next Tuesday, 30,000 jungle residents of Ecuador and Peru whose natural surroundings were forever spoiled will finally get their day in court.
*Five dead, thousands evacuated in Argentina floods 05-01-03 (Yahoo) Argentina (AFP) - Five people are dead and 60,000 forced from their homes in central Argentina, officials said, amid widespread flooding that President Eduardo Duhalde has dubbed a "national catastrophe
*Argentina declares flood disaster 05-01-03 (BBC) The authorities in Santa Fe, northern Argentina, have evacuated at least 50,000 people amid the most severe flooding in the province's history. Local officials say that seven people are known to have died in Santa Fe province, with another man dead in neighbouring Entre Rios.

 ASIA
*DOH: SARS watch in Baguio 05-01-03 (philstar.com) BAGUIO CITY — Worries about a possible outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in this city have intensified after health officials officially listed a female Indian missionary as a suspected SARS case. Officials said they have also isolated four persons, including two foreigners, who have had contact with the 21-year-old Indian.

 OIL PRICES
*Exxon Mobil profit surges to 7.04 billion dollars 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Net earnings included a 550 million dollar gain boost from a required accounting change and a one-time gain of 1.7 billion dollars from the transfer of shares in Ruhrgas AG to E.ON AG in March of this year. Excluding the accounting change gains, a special item, merger effects and discontinued operations, earnings increased to 4.79 billion dollars, or 71 cents per share. The figure beat First Call/Thomson Financial consensus by one cent.
*Exxon Mobil profit surges to $7.04 billion 05-02-03 (Yahoo) Net earnings included a 550 million dollar gain boost from a required accounting change and a one-time gain of 1.7 billion dollars from the transfer of shares in Ruhrgas AG to E.ON AG in March of this year. Excluding the accounting change gains, a special item, merger effects and discontinued operations, earnings increased to 4.79 billion dollars, or 71 cents per share. The figure beat First Call/Thomson Financial consensus by one cent.
*Nigeria sends warships to free oil rig hostages 05-02-03 (guardian.co.uk) Nigerian navy ships were steaming towards four offshore oil rigs last night to confront striking workers who have held dozens of British and US colleagues hostage in a two-week stand-off. A navy spokesman said the warships would use force if necessary to take control of the rigs and rescue the expatriates, prompting concern that the strikers would destroy the installations. Talks between the strikers' union and the American drilling company which operates the rigs were deadlocked in Port Harcourt last night. Relatives of the hostages feared the navy's deployment would scupper chances of a peaceful outcome.
*At Iraqi Oil Plant, Bitterness and Idleness 05-02-03 (Washington Post) The oil workers stood listlessly in front of the plant, hair blown brittle by a dusty wind, as they shared cigarettes and bitterness for lack of anything else to do. They complained about the looting that has left them without a chair to sit on, let alone a tool to wield. They worried about whether the state oil company can continue to pay them. They wondered when crude might again flow thick through their oil-gas separation plant, bound for the refinery up the road in Basra.
*Iraq success boosts US market 05-01-03 (abc.net.au) The success of US-led forces in Iraq has sparked a big lift in consumer confidence in the United States. Together with some encouraging profit reports, that has raised hopes of improved economic prospects. The impact on Wall Street has been positive overall, although there has been a reasonable amount of see-sawing in share prices. The rise in US consumer confidence has been the biggest in 12 years. The private-sector Conference Board's April measure has surged 19.6 points to 81, with American households reassured by the quick outcome in Iraq.
 
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05-02-03  Advice2: TNE is about to change it's trading range for the upside, tspp too and we might even see emt doing that very soon....

In USA expectations are just too pessimistic.... The nmbers will be better than expected now for some time...

Stocks are late....

CBonds seems set for the 93 bid....

Sexta, 2 de Maio de 2003 [12:58:26] Mensagem nº 172066

Origem: www.projecao.com
NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000

Prazo: Curto Prazo

Título: Na-de-fora,

Responder Apagar

na minha cabeça o CBond pode tranquilamente ir a 93, passar de 100 só com aprovação da previdencia..... Antes da aprovação da previdencia no entanto, pode ir a 93 pois o Brasil ja mudou de patamar....

E eu só sei que a bolsa esta atrasada, muito atrasada....

Morgan ta aproveitando uma perninha de alta para embolsar algum em tspp e vai acabar tendo que comprar mais caro o papel na semana que vem, pois a onda positiva na bolsa ta atrasada e a ficha ta caindo na cabeça de quem opera lote de varios ativos....

Telemar tem tudo para passar a operar 36 com 32 em breve, vai mudar de patamar....

Até


05-02-03  amigo latino: Brazil’s Eelectic Power Sector woes—BNDES continues to be very tolerant of default by AES.

<RIO DE JANEIRO -- Brazil's development bank postponed a decision on whether to strip AES Corp. of control of the country's biggest power distributor. But it has begun steps to sell some nonvoting shares in the utility to recoup some of the loan on which AES has defaulted.

The move to exercise the loan guarantee doesn't mean that AES must relinquish control of Eletropaulo Metropolitana, which is the largest electricity distributor in Brazil.

………………AES is in danger of losing control of Eletropaulo if BNDES exercises a second guarantee involving voting shares in a holding company of Eletropaulo. But Brazil's government would like to avoid such a controversial move and instead give AES more time to present a debt-rescheduling proposal.

"We're still in close contact with AES. We still hope that they will come to us with a new proposal to renegotiate their debt," said Roberto Thimoteo da Costa, finance director at the BNDES.

He said BNDES will meet with AES officials about the matter Friday and could make a decision then, but added negotiations may extend into next week or beyond.>wsj


05-02-03  carib: Fox BR40 ask now 91,25

05-02-03  panasonic: <wally: chicken curry with hot chillies in red wine.> what a coincidence, exactly same stuff when I sold :-)) difference is that you must have a plan figured out...pls share!

05-02-03  leo: ABN prices Savo....

05-02-03  savonarola: Fox...<Out for Lunch!>

Out where??? Are there any restaurants out there?

Or is it out of your office and into the dining room?


05-02-03  panasonic: <Argi> I will reconsider after elections, chances of <Quiche-nerd> are very high, and chances of spreading major BS after victory = huge!

05-02-03  savonarola: wally ..we should not rejoice in <monkeys> misery!

05-02-03  savonarola: leo...<86.25\89......guano 30>

sure?


05-02-03  Fox: Out for Lunch!

05-02-03  wally: < panasonic: <Wally> sold €-Ukraine! what did you have for breakfast? :-))> chicken curry with hot chillies in red wine.

05-02-03  wally: <Fox: <Brazil 40 90.000 90.250> Is this true???> TRUE!

05-02-03  leo: 86.25\89......guano 30.

05-02-03  panasonic: <Wally> sold €-Ukraine! what did you have for breakfast? :-))

05-02-03  wally: <Trawler: Wally - this "white ghost"> actually this is (according to my knowledge) not the correct translation. please consult <Mrs Trawler> whether "devil" or "demon" is more appropriate than "ghost" for the word "kwei" (same word and meaning in mandarin, cantonese, shanghainese, szechuanese, thai, lao and even burmese).

05-02-03  wally: <O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reucuou e disse hoje que o governo "não vai meter o dedo no valor do dólar">

shoot! my house is getting more expensive by the hour. perhaps i have to reduce the size of the pool to compensate.


05-02-03  Fox: <Brazil 40 90.000 90.250> Is this true???

05-02-03  Trawler: Wally - this "white ghost" knows that word and a few others. since I have my own translator I am allowed to be lazy ;>) However, in Japan for example the shoe is on the other foot. Our regards to you as well.

05-02-03  Fox: <...after issuing a decree that prov BA will restructure without haircut...> Who is the Governor there? Caligula?

05-02-03  wally: <a "pernacchio" is a very peculiar sound of talented popular neapolitan school made with the mouth and one hand , resembling someway, but not exactly, another physiological noise of different origin>

<merugo> another three weeks of lecturing and i am ready to write one more dissertation.

:~)))


05-02-03  Trawler: Victorn - I would suggest that you don't have too much to worry about unless you go to China and Hong Kong. Outside of Asia, Toronto was the worst place but now has it under control. SARS cases are now reported accurately for China on peoplesdaily.com. Also Google news frequently has headline summaries you can follow. My reference to "grim" in Beijing was about the current number of cases and the rate that they are climbing. Also, the restrictions that have been imposed to try to stop the spread. All schools, public places, restaurants, libraries, bars etc closed. No one is allowed to leave the city. Normally hundreds of thousands would travel for the May 1 10 day holiday. The holiday itself was cancelled. People have been ordered to remain in their homes as much as possible except to buy food. The army is around the universities to prevent people leaving. The gov't is very worried that the disease may spread in a big way into the countryside and villages where health care is very poor as this could destabilize the country. There have already been a couple of riots.

05-02-03  Fox: <02/05/2003 - 11h48 Lula diz que "não vai meter o dedo no valor do dólar" EDUARDO CUCOLO
da Folha Online, em Sertãozinho

O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reucuou e disse hoje que o governo "não vai meter o dedo no valor do dólar". Segundo ele, não existe valor "simpático" da moeda, pois o compromisso do governo é com o câmbio flutuante.

Ontem, Lula havia dito não querer "que o dólar caia demais, porque temos responsabilidade com as nossas exportações". A afirmação havia gerado especulações sobre uma possível intervenção do governo no câmbio e levara o dólar a abrir em alta hoje.

"Quando ganhamos as eleições, os mais pessimistas diziam que o dólar ia chegar a R$ 5. Ao contrário disso, o dólar está caindo. Graças a Deus o dólar está caindo", disse Lula, em Sertãozinho (SP).

Ele afirmou, no entanto, que há um objetivo de manter a cotação da moeda estável para que a economia brasileira possa trabalhar com um grau maior de previsibilidade.

O presidente criticou a política cambial do primeiro mandato do governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso, quando a moeda tinha cotação próxima a R$ 1.

"Alertamos o antigo presidente durante quatro anos sobre uma política cambial que quase quebrou o país, pois não era possível acreditar que o dólar valia apenas R$ 1."

Ele também sinalizou que as preocupações dos exportadores não vão se sobrepor aos interesses do país.

"Há companheiros exportadores que querem que o dólar suba. Mas os companheiros importadores querem que o dólar caia. O papel do governo é afirmar que o dólar vai continuar flutuando."

Lula participou hoje da inauguração da usina termelétrica Santa Elisa, que é movida à bagaço de cana e está localizada em Sertãozinho, a 335 km de São Paulo.>


05-02-03  carib: <will grant independence>...after issuing a decree that prov BA will restructure without haircut...

05-02-03  wally: <SPAL: <all jewish friends> real or imaginary !!> including the honourary jews living as mormons on the mountain top of some caribbean island!

05-02-03  Fox: I knew it, I knew it!!!! Savo is having a <Anarquista Outbreak> again.

Note: Savo...Savo.... meeting <monkeys> in dark allies...Did you see that <Documentary> <Planet of the Apes>???


05-02-03  savonarola: As in the case of guano, another of the incoherences of our market is correcting itself. Veni 18s soon to trade tighter than 27s.

05-02-03  Fox: <why not both? a party in Sambaland AND Pattaya?> I have to go through Sao Paulo anyway to Asia.

05-02-03  savonarola: fox..<Savo will be head of the Provinces>

and I will inmediately grant independence to all those provinces, the cities and boroughs within them. I will also grant the right to independence to every household in those cities. Making myself useless after that I will retire to my home and continue dealing in Emg mkts debt, making fun of all NY and London female chimpanzees, hoping that I will never meet a crowd of them in a dark alley.


05-02-03  carib: Fox: who is Cleopatra? The one I knew is over 2000 years old, and I am sure Savo is seeking no <physical contacts> with her...

05-02-03  Fox: <Zorro: so, let us close the Sambaland deal and leave an open option on the Fijian one.>

<<<Fechado>>>


05-02-03  merugo: < carib: <pernacchi> is a neapolitan term. It translates in sicilian as <piriti>>. A little more .., a "pernacchio" is a very peculiar sound of talented popular neapolitan school made with the mouth and one hand , resembling someway, but not exactly, another physiological noise of different origin. In infinite variants, often referred in literature, comedy and cinema, it comments facts, persons and stories without words. Worth hearing from a true neapolitan.

05-02-03  wally: <carib: Fox: or we might organize a smaller party in Sambaland> why not both? a party in Sambaland AND Pattaya?

05-02-03  Fox: Happy Friday Pillz!!

05-02-03  SPAL: <all jewish friends> real or imaginary !!

05-02-03  wally: <PILLZ: Happy Friday.........> and "a gitn schabbes" to all jewish friends!

05-02-03  Fox: <last year we had several colores families in Pattaya!> Cool! :-))

05-02-03  Fox: <Republic, Condominium, Monarchy> Ok,Ok,...this is what will do:

We will make Wally & Alex Counsuls like in the Roman Empire.

Carib will be head of Foreign Policy.

Savo will be head of the Provinces. (Under the condition that he will not have unnacessary physical contact with Cleopatra)


05-02-03  wally: <Not bad idea but I would have to take all <Zorro Family> to Pattaya> so where is the problem <zorro>? last year we had several colores families in Pattaya! ask <glut> or <hase> how they liked it.

05-02-03  PILLZ: the monkeys are even coming to schweinkramland, looking after paper they shorted a few weeks ago

05-02-03  carib: Zorro: so, let us close the Sambaland deal and leave an open option on the Fijian one.

05-02-03  leo: Brazil 2020 103\104........all time highs...if I remember well.

05-02-03  carib: EMBI lost another 19 points today, and is down to 552. At this speed, EMB should yield less than UST by july. As Argy is still likely to yield (on paper, because in reality they already yield less than UST, because they yield zero) some 4000 points spread, RF 28 should be @200 to make the average. Clearly, this frenzy cannot go on for long.

05-02-03  PILLZ: Happy Friday.........
>
> It's hard to fight the technicals! Inflows were staggering at up $1.09
> billion. People are reaching into their mattress and throwing money at the
> market. They don't care, they want yield. Personally, I am still not > convinced that we will be able to sustain this pace, as I still see weakness
> going forward. That said, Stocks were a bit lower, but Spreads continued
to > move tighter. This should be no surprise with the massive inflows coming
> into the Spread markets. HY was up in all sectors again, as buyers continue
> to put money to work. Today, things are unchanged with a bias to the upside.
> Volatility also remains high. Have a great weekend!

05-02-03  Fox: <Fox: or we might organize a smaller party in Sambaland> On Sambaland I can give a <Fechado> now without consulting Mrs. Zorro.

05-02-03  carib: a <sovereign> condominium...

05-02-03  savonarola: carib...< thought we were a <republic>.....>

I thought we were a <miami condominium>........


05-02-03  carib: Fox: or we might organize a smaller party in Sambaland

05-02-03  Fox: <Wally/Fox: are you going to have a joint birthday party?> Not bad idea but I would have to take all <Zorro Family> to Pattaya.

05-02-03  Alexander: KING W:

sell UKR 108 & RF 159, ok, so will I !!!


05-02-03  Escipion: Victor: your posting is a joke, <..Fortunately Franco was no Perón...>, Did you conclude that i'm a peronist?. Pathetic, you didn't understand a single word what i'm talking about, isn't it?. Read again my posting (or not, I really don't care).

05-02-03  wally: <i see bid 155.75 no offer on broker... have not seen this clownish offer you tell...> you can't see everything <glut>. i just offered myself POCCIA28 for but i am bidding only 162. so i agreed to disagree with myself :~))


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