GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Under Fire, World Bank Launches Indigenous Peoples Fund 05-15-03 (Yahoo) Called the 'Grants Facility for Indigenous Peoples', the 700,000-dollar programme is expected to be operating before the end of June. "It is not a huge amount of money, but it is symbolic of our relationship with indigenous peoples," says Ian Johnson, Bank vice president and head of its environmentally and socially sustainable development network. The aim of the fund, he said, is to help the World Bank build partnerships with indigenous peoples' development efforts. 
Bushs short-term dollars make no long-term sense 05-15-03 (ajc.com) With his proposed 2004 budget of more than $2.2 trillion, Bush will have presided over a 19 percent increase in federal spending during his first three years as president. For comparison's sake, the largest three-year increase under President Clinton was 10.7 percent. Furthermore, defense spending accounts for only a quarter of the Bush increase. Deduct that increase, and spending under Bush will have increased by more than 14 percent. 
The Right Kind of Tax Cut 05-15-03 (weeklystandard.com) SOMEONE ONCE DEFINED a fanatic as someone who redoubles his efforts after losing sight of his objective. Based on this definition, the Bush administration is in danger of becoming fanatical on tax policy. Last fall, as the administration prepared its January budget proposal, there was a spirited debate about what sort of tax initiatives it would offer. A number of proposals were floated in the press, but the one President Bush got behind was a plan to reduce the cost of capital by eliminating the double taxation of corporate profits. 
Its just what taxpayers need 05-15-03 (nwsource.com) I recently received a letter from a constituent who wrote the following: "There are millions of seniors who rely on dividend-paying stocks to help finance their retirement ... it's a fact of life today that individual investment is necessary to ensure financial security in our golden years, so our tax policy should support it." The letter touches upon one reason why Congress must pass legislation to help grow our cool economy. A second reason can be described in three words: jobs, jobs, jobs. 
Dollar Mostly Lower Amid Weak U.S. Retail Sales Data 05-15-03 (Yahoo) In morning trading, the dollar was at 116.13 yen, down from 116.60 yen late Tuesday in New York. The euro was trading at $1.1500, down from $1.1513 late Tuesday. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was at 1.3133, down from 1.3140 late Tuesday. Sterling was at $1.6156, up from $1.6091. 
April Retail Sales Fell 0.1%, Reflecting Lower Gas Sales 05-15-03 (Yahoo) Retail sales unexpectedly declined in April, possibly suggesting that U.S. consumers have decided to restrain their spending, which would hurt the broader economy. 
No Iraq bounce in US retail sales 05-15-03 (BBC) US retail sales slipped lower last month, in a fresh sign that the end of the war in Iraq did not trigger the hoped-for economic rebound. The US Commerce Department said sales for April fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month, falling far short of the surprise 2.3% increase recorded in March. Retail sales are regarded as a key indicator of overall economic health in the US, where consumer spending accounts for two thirds of all economic activity. 

 LATIN AMERICA
Argentina: Trail of Mysterious Deaths 05-15-03 (Yahoo) The two consecutive terms of former Argentine president Carlos Menem, who goes to the polls in next Sunday's presidential runoff election, were marked by a trail of mysterious deaths.
Menem Says Quits Argentina Presidential Election 05-15-03 (Yahoo) "Conditions aren't right to participate in a second round," Menem said on live television from his home province of La Rioja. Polls showed Menem was facing a landslide defeat in Sunday's runoff. 
Menem Quits Argentine Presidential Race 05-15-03 (Yahoo) Menem, a 72-year-old former president, confirmed he was abandoning his underdog battle for a third term in office. In live televised comments from his native western province of La Rioja, he said he was cutting short his campaign for a May 18 runoff. "Now we have to look to the future," Menem said as he was jostled by weeping supporters. "We have to start over again." 
Argentina Faces Final Menem Election Decision 05-15-03 (Yahoo) Menem plunged the race into chaos in the last 24 hours as aides confirmed he was considering quitting the Sunday runoff to avoid a humiliating defeat to Gov. Nestor Kirchner, who is well ahead in polls. If the 72-year-old Menem does drop out, the election would be canceled and Kirchner would become president 
Menem May Quit Race in Argentina 05-14-03 (Washington Post) The only unresolved question in a presidential runoff election scheduled for Sunday appears to be whether former president Carlos Menem will withdraw from the race to avoid an embarrassing defeat. Menem, 72, who outdistanced a crowded field of presidential candidates last month to emerge as the top vote-getter, canceled all campaign appearances and announcements today and withdrew to his campaign headquarters at a downtown hotel. Rumors circulated widely tonight that Menem, who served as president from 1989 to 1999, would announce his withdrawal after opinion polls showed him trailing his opponent, Nestor Kirchner, by almost a 2-to-1 ratio. 
Reports: Argentinas Menem to End Bid 05-14-03 (Yahoo) Polls show the 72-year-old Menem facing an embarrassing defeat to rival Nestor Kirchner in Sunday's runoff vote and some of his advisers reportedly have recommended he withdraw his candidacy. Since they are the only candidates, the 53-year-old Kirchner would win by default if Menem quits. Menem traveled Wednesday to La Rioja, his hometown in northwest Argentina, and refused to comment on newspaper reports he would abandon his campaign. 
The Argentina-Brazil connection 05-14-03 (washtimes.com) Argentina is poised to leverage its nascent economic recovery for closer trade and infrastructure ties with Brazil. This heightened integration between South America's two largest economies could provide the region with a more reliable engine for growth. But it could also signal trouble for the prospects of creating a free trade zone in the Americas by sometime near the 2005 goal — an initiative supported by the United States. After its calamitous economic freefall last year, Argentina is beginning to show signs of a sustainable climb towards stability. Anoop Singh, the International Monetary Fund's pointman for Latin America, said recently that a "substantial" improvement in economic conditions will give the next government the ability to adopt "enduring structural reforms." After last year's Great Depression-style contraction of 11 percent, the economy is expected to grow 4 percent this year. And the IMF's original prediction of inflation of 35 percent now looks way off base. The IMF has reduced its inflation forecast to 20 percent, while the government expects it to be around 8 percent. The IMF showed its confidence in Argentina's inflation prospects last week by allowing the central bank to increase its monetary base by almost 3 billion pesos, from the current 37 billion pesos. 

 OIL PRICES
Iraq Basra Refinery to Be Up in Two Weeks 05-15-03 (Yahoo) British soldiers in charge of overseeing the repair of the aging refinery said capacity would be boosted to 140,000 barrels per day, although this was subject to a key oil pipeline between Basra and Baghdad reopening by May 25 as planned. They added that if the link did not reopen on schedule, the refinery output increase would be postponed. 
Saudi terrorist bombings send prices of crude oil surging 05-14-03 (globeandmail.com) (no summary)Suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia sent crude prices surging yesterday as traders worried that the deadly blasts are just the start of a terror campaign against the world's largest oil producer. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said worldwide inventories of oil are down 10 per cent from last year, heightening the concern that any disruption could push crude supplies to the breaking point. 
Kurds Bid for Stake in Oil Firms Rebuffed 05-14-03 (Washington Post) U.S. authorities rejected a bid by ethnic Kurds for a stake in the state oil giants of northern Iraq -- the dominant force in the local economy -- preferring to retain existing managers and minimize disruption to resume large-volume production as quickly as possible, according to Kurdish and U.S. officials. 
Oil Jumps 4 Percent on Saudi Bombings 05-14-03 (Yahoo) The attacks revived concerns over security of supply from the Middle East, industry analysts said. Oil prices hit 12-year highs near $40 before the war in Iraq but fell sharply as oil facilities escaped severe damage. Britain warned of a "high threat" of further attacks against Western interests in Saudi Arabia -- possibly involving chemical or biological weapons. "Anything that happens within Saudi Arabia is relevant to the oil market and will move the price," said Paul Horsnell, analyst with J.P. Morgan bank.