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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, May 23, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*A not so strong dollar 05-23-03 (cincypost.com) The White House says there is "no change" in the administration's support for a strong dollar, the U.S. government's policy through eight years of the Clinton administration. But, in fact, there is a change in position. Since the first of the year, the dollar has fallen almost 30 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the yen, and the Bush administration seems inclined to let it slide further. Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin would regularly but cryptically endorse a strong dollar, the implication being that Treasury would intervene -- by buying up dollars -- to keep it strong.
*Public senses something amiss in D.C. 05-23-03 (timesunion.com) According to The New York Times (and did anyone ever think that phrase would be accompanied by a trapdoor of doubt?), fewer than one in three Americans think President Bush's tax cut will cure the ailing economy. Fifty-eight percent think we should reduce the soaring budget deficit instead. Which suggests that with little prompting by congressional Democrats -- who today lack the megaphone to get even their relatives much riled up about anything -- the public senses something is amiss.
*A way to loosen belt around Texas patients necks 05-23-03 (chron.com) Now that the Texas House of Representatives and Senate have passed their proposed budgets, we can only ask, "What were they thinking?" The destructive cuts to Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program will throw tens of thousands of the state's children, frail and elderly into a health care void and devastate an already fragile health care safety net. Budget leaders argue that in tough economic times we all must tighten our belts. If this is belt tightening, then it is being applied around our patients' necks, as well as those of every health care professional and facility in Texas.
*Congress must extend jobless aid 05-23-03 (bayarea.com) CONGRESS has an opportunity this week to provide an immediate stimulus to the economy while helping millions of Americans. But time is running out. Both houses must vote by Friday, before the Memorial Day recess begins, to extend benefits for jobless Americans whose state unemployment benefits are running out. Otherwise, as of May 31, millions of people will no longer receive the small weekly checks that keep the wolf from the door while they hunt for new jobs.
*The Dollars Dive 05-23-03 (theconnection.org) Forget what you know about a strong dollar being in America's national interest. These days, weak is chic. When Treasury Secretary John Snow declared the sagging dollar to be just fine thank you at last week's meeting in France, the sacr?leu! heard around the world sparked a sell off in world stock markets.
*House Approves Extending Unemployment Benefits 05-23-03 (Yahoo) The bill put forward by Republicans extends the current program for seven months and would provide an extra 13 weeks of benefits to those who have exhausted their normal 26 weeks of payments. Democrats wanted to extend unemployment benefits by 26 weeks and extend eligibility to those who have exhausted both their normal benefits and the 13 weeks of extended payments. Some 1.1 million unemployed workers are in that situation, Democrats said.
*House GOP OKs Unemployment Extension 05-23-03 (Yahoo) House Republican leaders say they will extend federal unemployment benefits Thursday, blunting Democratic accusations that the GOP-controlled Congress favors tax cuts for the rich over aid for jobless Americans. The federal program, providing 13 weeks of emergency benefits to people who exhaust their state aid, won't pay out benefits to new applicants after May 31 unless Congress acts. Congress adjourns Friday for a holiday recess.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Argentina at last bids farewell to King Menem 05-23-03 (miami.com) The caudillo who oversaw the glory days of the 1990s exited the race to save himself, to avoid a defeat, and to weaken Néstor Kirchner, the man from Patagonia who on May 25 will become Argentina's 49th president. Although the public's outrage at Menen's tactics makes a comeback unlikely, the former president continues to dream of retreating with his defeated troops and reshaping himself from an alternative power base.
*New Argentine President to Outline Agenda 05-23-03 (Yahoo) Kirchner, declared president after former leader Carlos Menem dropped out of a runoff last week, boarded a flight to Buenos Aires on Thursday from his home province of Santa Cruz. But the plane had to return due to mechanical problems. Ahead of Sunday's swearing-in ceremony in the capital, Kirchner has said little in detail about his plans for governing over the next four years. Local reports suggest he is poised to embark on a $3 billion public works project.
*Brazilian Jail Horror Film Sparks Gasps in Cannes 05-22-03 (Yahoo) "The men that told me these stories could never have imagined they would end up on the screen in an environment like this," Drauzio Varella told Reuters in glitzy Cannes, planets away from the crime-ridden slums of Sao Paulo. "That's why I still visit prisons and will do for the rest of my life. You have to stay faithful to your ideals."
*New WHO Chief Asks Brazil to Help AIDS Battle 05-22-03 (Yahoo) Brazil has become a model for the developing world with its program to offer free, universal antiretroviral treatment and break drug patents if manufacturers refuse to slash prices. Brazil's policy to use homemade generics has outraged big pharmaceutical firms, but has cut the cost of its AIDS program.
*New Argentine cabinet revealed 05-22-03 (BBC) The list includes the existing Economy Minister, Roberto Lavagna, who retains his post in recognition of his role in stabilising the national accounts. In the words of one local newspaper commentator, the new cabinet is both homogeneous and pluralist.

 ASIA
*Philippine leader aims to lure more outsourcing 05-23-03 (boston.com) Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who visited with President Bush and was feted at a White House state dinner Monday, came to the nation's financial capital yesterday to pitch US companies on the benefits of moving some of their key business and technology tasks to her island nation.

 OIL PRICES
*Is oil wealth a blessing or a curse? 05-23-03 (economist.com) THREE decades ago, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sent oil prices rocketing. By 1980, a barrel cost $30, ten times the price in 1970. Consumers suffered, whereas oil producers reaped an enormous windfall. Many assumed then that oil was a gift of God that would transform poor countries into flourishing economies within a generation. Yet even during those heady early days there were doubts. Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso, a founder of OPEC, complained in 1975: “I call petroleum the devil's excrement. It brings trouble...Look at this locura—waste, corruption, consumption, our public services falling apart. And debt, debt we shall have for years.”
*Natural Gas Pipeline Explodes in Texas 05-22-03 (Yahoo) Authorities in southeast Texas were trying to determine what caused a natural gas pipeline to explode and burn into the early hours Wednesday. No injuries were reported when the 30-inch pipeline near the Sun Oil Co. plant in Nederland ruptured about 11 p.m. Tuesday, Houston Pipe Line Co. spokesman Peter Main said. "We have the line shut in and the damaged area isolated," Main said Wednesday. "Investigation and repairs are underway."
*Iraq Oil to Flow Quickly After Sanctions End 05-22-03 (Yahoo) "The oil is ready to flow. The tanks are full," the diplomat said. "I think you will find it will move quite quickly. There is no need to set up the monitoring board first. They'll just get on with it. The only thing they are awaiting is the lifting of sanctions." The diplomat referred to an "International Advisory and Monitoring Board" that will monitor oil exports and other issues in post-war Iraq. The diplomat declined to be identified and is close to negotiations for the Security Council resolution that will lift 13-year-old sanctions on Iraq,
*Bill to target gas prices 05-22-03 (freep.com) Two Michigan legislators are expected to introduce a bill Thursday that could put an end to major retailers selling gasoline below prices at independent filling stations. State Sen. Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, and state Rep. Charlie LaSata, R-St. Joseph, backed by the Michigan Petroleum Association and other fuel retailing associations, are sponsoring legislation dubbed the Michigan Petroleum Marketing Stabilization Act, which they say could even the playing field for gas prices throughout the state.
*Heavy oil joint venture finally gets green light 05-22-03 (theglobeandmail.com) With the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board giving the go-ahead to Surmont, Calgary-based ConocoPhillips said yesterday that it will further scrutinize the economics of the venture before deciding whether to proceed with construction. The AEUB approval "is clearly a very important stepping stone," said company spokesman Peter Hunt.
 
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05-23-03  wally: <O Brasil no meu entender nathal esta prestes a mudar de patamar outra vez.... Os agentes estão antecipando e desta vez acho que tem razão, vamos ver vários pivos de baixa abortados e muito poucos de alta abortados ainda por algum tempo.....> i fully agree with that statement <advice>. however, one has to take into consideration that gewisse Arschlöcher sich mit der Einstein'schen Relativitätstheorie befassen ohne Rücksicht auf die Tatsache dass sie noch nicht mal das grosse Einmaleins beherrschen. So geht es nun mal zu in dieser Welt. Deppen werden zu Regierungschefs gewählt, Halb-Deppen werden Minister und wer das richtige Parteibuch besitzt oder vom Vater die Kohle erbte der wird Staatsekretär unter der Voraussetzung dass er jemand kennt der Schreiben und Lesen kann. Unter Umständen genügt da die Putzfrau oder der polnische Gärtner.

05-23-03  manya: Venezuelan opposition
negotiators reached an agreement with the government over a binding referendum on the rule of President Hugo Chavez, one of the negotiators told Union Radio.
Opposition leaders didn't give details of the accord brokered by Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria. Government negotiators left a meeting yesterday with the opposition and OAS without speaking to the press. ``We've have an agreement and there should be a signing early next week,'' opposition negotiator Alejandro Armas said in the radio interview late yesterday.
A referendum may end two years of protests and strikes by the opposition demanding that Chavez, a former army lieutenant colonel, resign or call early elections. Opponents agreed to a binding referendum to be held after August, the midpoint of Chavez's six-year term, after a two-month national strike failed to force a non-binding vote in February. Opposition and OAS spokesmen said last month they had an agreement with the government only to have Chavez block the agreement a day before it was to be signed.

05-23-03  Advice2: Fox as I wrote down there in portuguese, as soon as the core inflation comes down in Brazil interest rates will fall... That is the only thing missing, and when interest rates start to fall, direct investment will probably explode and soo, would it not be better for the hot money that got in brasil at excessive depressed levels to just renew there staying around Brazil and wait for interest rates to fall <comprado no pré, parte longa?> Vincent? any one that has a view on that question....

Does any one here expects the core inflation in Brazil <not to> go down as hole sale prices already did and consumer prices are starting to do?


05-23-03  optimist: leo: dollar paper just catching up with Euro.. what difference half a year make!

05-23-03  wally: < leo: What happens in caracas?> nothing really. except.... VIVA CHAVEZ! may the tiger blood restore your liver :~)))

05-23-03  Advice2: 05-23-03 Fox: Advice take a look @ this

http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/argenti...

Increadble fox! But I realy think the final destiny of Brazil might be ALCA, the market is larger in ALCA.... And politicians can speak fox, but will argentinos accept being a state of the Brazilian Republic with a Lulita as President and a Meirelles as a currency guardian and a pallocccciiii as finance minister?


05-23-03  leo: What happens in caracas?Ven 27 71\71.25........

05-23-03  manya: Iraqi Debt Jumps Before Market Opens to U.S. Buyers http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/em/1003...

05-23-03  manya: Emerging markets debt continued to trade with a positive tone yesterday, driven by demand from real money accounts amid continued inflows. Better-than-expected primary surplus data released in Brazil led to some short covering on Cs by trading accounts and helped push prices higher, while balance of payments data was also favorable. The EMBI+ closed 8 bps tighter on the day. Most of the demand was concentrated in higher-yielding Latin credits such as Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, where spreads tightened by 25 bps, 22 bps, and 25 bps, respectively. There was also some buying in smaller Latins such as Panama and Peru, but EMBI+ subindex closing levels hardly reflected this demand, as spreads were practically unchanged on the day. There was little flow in non-Latins. On the news front, S&P raised Bulgaria's rating to BB+ from BB, leading spreads to tighten 16 bps by the New York close, but mostly as a result of spread tightening on '15s, as Bradys lagged. Expect trading activity to decline today on account of the early close in New York and Memorial Day holiday in the US on Monday.

05-23-03  manya: Argentina secured a
$500 million loan from the World Bank intended to help revive the economy, narrow a fiscal deficit, and provide food, health care and other aid to 22 million Argentines living in poverty. The loan will ``strengthen Argentina's ability to resume growth and to improve the implementation of social programs targeted to the poor,'' said Axel van Trotsenburg, director of World Bank operations in Argentina. Among 38 million Argentines, 57 percent live in poverty and 18 percent are unemployed. The credit, intended also at promoting deficit reduction in Argentina's provinces, will reinforce efforts by President-elect Nestor Kirchner to resuscitate an economy that last year shrank 11 percent.

05-23-03  Advice2: Sexta, 23 de Maio de 2003 [10:04:07] Mensagem nº 176892

Origem: www.projecao.com
NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000

Prazo: Curto Prazo

Título: nathal,

Responder Apagar

como é que fica o semanal de telemar se fechar em 36?

Ña minha humilde opinião de pé rapado nathal, o que você não entendeu é que o núcleo da inflação ainda não cedeu o necessário para uma redução mais acentuada dos juros e tomando esta decisão, o BACEN mostrou que não quer inflação e que se tornou um pouco mais independente e portanto mais profissional, pois secundo a teoria econômica moderna do captalismo, o BACEN em ultima instância tem como função preservar o poder de compra do cidadão. Esta tarefa pode parecer simples mas não é, quando se pega um país onde a moeda tinha sido artificialmente desvalorizada em 120% 1.90-4.00!

Mas o importante é que aí na frente o núcleo da inflação deverá ceder e ai vão ser criadas as condições para que o capital de longo prazo volte a fluir para este país e os investimentos crescam e etc e tal..... Falta pouco agora e os agentes já perceberam que só falta esta peça (nucleo da inflação cair), balanço de pagamentos melhor, dinâmica da dívida pública bem melhor, o arrocho fiscal tem produzido superávits crescentes e recordes nas contas públicas, isso faz com que o Brasil passe a precisar menos de dinheiro emprestado, pois paga parte do principal.....

O Brasil no meu entender nathal esta prestes a mudar de patamar outra vez.... Os agentes estão antecipando e desta vez acho que tem razão, vamos ver vários pivos de baixa abortados e muito poucos de alta abortados ainda por algum tempo.....

Vocês falam que eles estão atraindo hot money, eu digo que eles estão tomando uma atitude simplesmente técnica, de olho no núcleo da inflação, segundo o livro diz e criando as condições para que no segundo semestre o hot money renove suas posições, pois juros vão cair e o investimento direto porre.... Neste caso todo nathal, eu acho comprar dolar contra real por exemplo um péssimo trade e vender bolsa pior ainda....


05-23-03  wally: <When the spread is four fifths of the total yield, a bond moves more like the spread than like the UST; but now lower spreads represent only two fifths of the total yield, so logically there is more correlation with the three fifths that are the UST basis<<<.>>>

<correlation is indeed increasing when spreads become too tight because that means less movement on its own and more shift tandem with underlying curve<<<.>>>>

HELP!!! the ANALs have invaded the 'colour'. now we have to find out whether this is a <zionist> or an <al-Qaeda> plot.


05-23-03  Glutt: Amateur, if you read my posting again you will see that i said about the same, no disagreement ... I said that more fair pricing results in more correlation. Fair pricing means fair (in market view or in your view) spread over underlying benchmark (UST or Bunds or Swap curve etc). so I did get it correct, correlation is indeed increasing when spreads become too tight because that means less movement on its own and more shift tandem with underlying curve... it is so obvious that I would not think to contradict it, I simply added an explanation to that correlation message... regarding bla bla indeed this correlation is blabla... because it tells noting in terms of sell or buy but it tells you more about whether to hedge underlying curve risk or not. you can say Russia tight from this point but that tells me nothing if I have to sell or buy it again, it tells me I am more exposed to UST shift and all I do I decide whether I buy or sell UST futures depending on my view. IMnsHO

05-23-03  Jackie: Further news on Veni confrontation TERESA DE VINCENZO
EL UNIVERSAL
Los adecos aseguraron que si los chavistas se acercan al acto denominado 'Reconquista del Oeste', que han convocado para el sábado 24 en la calle Perú de Catia, no serán recibidos con aplausos, papelillos y serpentinas, sino con las brigadas de orden de AD y una multitud armada de cámaras fotográficas y de video. Así lo manifestó el secretario general de la tolda blanca, Henry Ramos Allup, quien mostró a los medios de comunicación social copia del permiso que la Alcaldía del Municipio Libertador emitió para la celebración y puntualizó que 'ya no hay excusa para que los violentos alteren el orden'. Acompañado por Jesús Suárez Ramos, secretario general de AD-Caracas, Jesús Méndez Quijada, presidente de la organización y Luis Berroterán, secretario sindical nacional de AD, Ramos precisó que los asistentes al evento del sábado 'serán gente pacífica' y rechazó que sectores oficialistas digan que Catia les pertenece: 'debe ser que creen que Adán Chávez pasó por la Parroquia Sucre y extendió cartas agrícolas', bromeó. Ramos reiteró que los responsables de la seguridad son el alcalde Freddy Bernal, Policaracas y el Ministro del Interior y Justicia, ya que la concentración se propone 'reivindicar tranquilamente el derecho de manifestar en cualquier lugar de Venezuela y defender el referendo revocatorio'. Ramos hizo el comentario a propósito de las amenazas de sabotaje como la anunciada por el presidente de la Junta Parroquial de Sucre, José Bonalde. AD espera reunir a unas 45 mil personas el sábado, medir su capacidad de convocatoria popular y luego preparar nuevas concentraciones en Macarao, Caricuao y otras zonas del oeste de la ciudad. Por su parte, Suárez fue enfático al rechazar la eventual presencia de Lina Ron y le advirtió a la dirigente chavista que si se acerca el sábado a Catia 'será capturada por las mujeres de AD y entregada a las autoridades que la requieran'. Ramos Allup dijo tener información respecto a que la Alcaldía de Libertador permisó tres actos de calle que realizarán partidarios del sector oficial el mismo día sábado en la plaza Catia, en la avenida Sucre, a la altura de la entrada de Lídice y en La Silsa. El sector sindical de AD se sumó a la convocatoria y dijo que la protesta movilizará a los trabajadores y desempleados de la zona preocupados por la actual situación del país.

05-23-03  optimist: again.. Russian Ruble government bond 10 year rate is 7.9%.. Inflation stands above 10%.. Government prints more and more bonds. corporates - not rated, having tiny if at all operating margin borrow "interest free" and do not grow (aside of oil sector and some huge cos, which manage to diminish costs somewhat).. from 93 to 98 we had 5 year "virtous cycle" of Yeltsin's russia.. finishing in 98.. from 99 up to now we are having virtuos cycle of Putin's russia... This 5 year tenor expires. This fall i think.. gluty, dont slap me across my jaw...

05-23-03  merugo: To those people jubilating about RU28@167. Would they have sold it say six months ago @133 and reinvested the money at a modest 10% in € (Vene€ @15%, Bra€ @15%...Uru11€ @16% current yd at the time, not to say the capital gain) they would have obtained better results than with RU28, so what a particular rejoicing? http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=USD&a... http://www.wallstreet-online.de/si/...

05-23-03  optimist: Why, Wally?? MSDW bearucracy is doing great job for both you and me;))

05-23-03  wally: <Glutt: <I confess I love 25% a DAY> <more than 180% a year.>> it is all relative. i prefer 25% a year on $3mm over 25% a day on $10k.

05-23-03  wally: i have to demote <alex> from "king" to big loser! his RF28 forecast of 160 (dated dec 2002) is very inaccurate :~)))

05-23-03  wally: <wally, do not worry... puts on MATKA are hot and cooking!> i realized that <glut>. ask for RF28 now <169.50>!

<ooooooptiiiiiii> fire up your burner!


05-23-03  wally: <savo <Holding Russia 28 from 100 to 160 over the last year was a bad deal in financial terms, considering other alternatives that were available>> what about holding RF28 AND pursuing <other alternatives>?

05-23-03  wally: <there might be more exciting things like Sbac and Prox of recent by SPAL> are these drugs to be taken before or after meals? any known side effects? nausea? impotence? premature ejaculation?

05-23-03  Fox: <when we have here <Spal> making that every day!> Shhhhhhh!!!! Savo dont give al Spal funny ideas!!! Buffet is looking for a replacement!!! & we need el Spal here @ Colores!!!! :-))))

05-23-03  Amateur: Glutt: <Escipion: ..and the correlation between long UST and long maturities EM bonds is raising every day... >

Glut I think you got it wrong. There is a simple and intuitive reason for EMbonds to move more like USTs now: lower spreads.

When the spread is four fifths of the total yield, a bond moves more like the spread than like the UST; but now lower spreads represent only two fifths of the total yield, so logically there is more correlation with the three fifths that are the UST basis.


05-23-03  Fox: <worse than the Arg women are the men who make "love" with their suit coat, shirt and tie still on> Tica????!!!!! How do you know this????

05-23-03  savonarola: glutt...<I confess I love 25% a day more than 180% a year>

Of course.. I wonder why would anybody be interesting in knowing Buffet´s opinions if, according to his annual statements he has produced over the last 35 years an average annual return of <only> 25%, when we have here <Spal> making that every day!


05-23-03  savonarola: wally....<it is inappropriate to compare high risk default or near default schweinkram with AAA+ investments>

Yes ex-ante.. not ex-post. In any case that is not the point. Glutt is making a calculation from beginning to end and then he does a monthly average. That makes, in my view, no sense. Holding Russia 28 from 100 to 160 over the last year was a bad deal in financial terms, considering other alternatives that were available. One may have chosen to keep them because of diversification, etc.... but that would be a different consideration.


05-23-03  Glutt: wally, do not worry... puts on MATKA are hot and cooking!

05-23-03  Glutt: <I confess I love 25% a> DAY <more than 180% a year.>

05-23-03  Fox: Advice take a look @ this

http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/argenti...


05-23-03  Glutt: <does that mean i am "ritchier" <glut>? > NO... this means you are poorer because you succumbed to opti’s songs and sold big bunch of MATKA below our new 175 target established as of today!!! hahaha...

savo, last 1.5 years Matka 28 went from 105 to 166, I do not know if 60% return a year is bad by some yardstick... but I agree there is life outside Russia, city of BA was great, and Brazil was great too, pity I resisted Brazil rally for too long. still Matka was no brainer in the last 1.5 years compared to BA IMHO. otherwise there might be more exciting things like Sbac and Prox of recent by SPAL... I confess I love 25% a more than 180% a year.


05-23-03  wally: <savo <some argi non sovs like City of BA traded at 15 last year and at 75% now, or Mendoza, at 20% last year>> it is inappropriate to compare high risk default or near default schweinkram with AAA+ investments!

:~)))



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