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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, May 23, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*A not so strong dollar 05-23-03 (cincypost.com) The White House says there is "no change" in the administration's support for a strong dollar, the U.S. government's policy through eight years of the Clinton administration. But, in fact, there is a change in position. Since the first of the year, the dollar has fallen almost 30 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the yen, and the Bush administration seems inclined to let it slide further. Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin would regularly but cryptically endorse a strong dollar, the implication being that Treasury would intervene -- by buying up dollars -- to keep it strong.
*Public senses something amiss in D.C. 05-23-03 (timesunion.com) According to The New York Times (and did anyone ever think that phrase would be accompanied by a trapdoor of doubt?), fewer than one in three Americans think President Bush's tax cut will cure the ailing economy. Fifty-eight percent think we should reduce the soaring budget deficit instead. Which suggests that with little prompting by congressional Democrats -- who today lack the megaphone to get even their relatives much riled up about anything -- the public senses something is amiss.
*A way to loosen belt around Texas patients necks 05-23-03 (chron.com) Now that the Texas House of Representatives and Senate have passed their proposed budgets, we can only ask, "What were they thinking?" The destructive cuts to Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program will throw tens of thousands of the state's children, frail and elderly into a health care void and devastate an already fragile health care safety net. Budget leaders argue that in tough economic times we all must tighten our belts. If this is belt tightening, then it is being applied around our patients' necks, as well as those of every health care professional and facility in Texas.
*Congress must extend jobless aid 05-23-03 (bayarea.com) CONGRESS has an opportunity this week to provide an immediate stimulus to the economy while helping millions of Americans. But time is running out. Both houses must vote by Friday, before the Memorial Day recess begins, to extend benefits for jobless Americans whose state unemployment benefits are running out. Otherwise, as of May 31, millions of people will no longer receive the small weekly checks that keep the wolf from the door while they hunt for new jobs.
*The Dollars Dive 05-23-03 (theconnection.org) Forget what you know about a strong dollar being in America's national interest. These days, weak is chic. When Treasury Secretary John Snow declared the sagging dollar to be just fine thank you at last week's meeting in France, the sacr?leu! heard around the world sparked a sell off in world stock markets.
*House Approves Extending Unemployment Benefits 05-23-03 (Yahoo) The bill put forward by Republicans extends the current program for seven months and would provide an extra 13 weeks of benefits to those who have exhausted their normal 26 weeks of payments. Democrats wanted to extend unemployment benefits by 26 weeks and extend eligibility to those who have exhausted both their normal benefits and the 13 weeks of extended payments. Some 1.1 million unemployed workers are in that situation, Democrats said.
*House GOP OKs Unemployment Extension 05-23-03 (Yahoo) House Republican leaders say they will extend federal unemployment benefits Thursday, blunting Democratic accusations that the GOP-controlled Congress favors tax cuts for the rich over aid for jobless Americans. The federal program, providing 13 weeks of emergency benefits to people who exhaust their state aid, won't pay out benefits to new applicants after May 31 unless Congress acts. Congress adjourns Friday for a holiday recess.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Argentina at last bids farewell to King Menem 05-23-03 (miami.com) The caudillo who oversaw the glory days of the 1990s exited the race to save himself, to avoid a defeat, and to weaken Néstor Kirchner, the man from Patagonia who on May 25 will become Argentina's 49th president. Although the public's outrage at Menen's tactics makes a comeback unlikely, the former president continues to dream of retreating with his defeated troops and reshaping himself from an alternative power base.
*New Argentine President to Outline Agenda 05-23-03 (Yahoo) Kirchner, declared president after former leader Carlos Menem dropped out of a runoff last week, boarded a flight to Buenos Aires on Thursday from his home province of Santa Cruz. But the plane had to return due to mechanical problems. Ahead of Sunday's swearing-in ceremony in the capital, Kirchner has said little in detail about his plans for governing over the next four years. Local reports suggest he is poised to embark on a $3 billion public works project.
*Brazilian Jail Horror Film Sparks Gasps in Cannes 05-22-03 (Yahoo) "The men that told me these stories could never have imagined they would end up on the screen in an environment like this," Drauzio Varella told Reuters in glitzy Cannes, planets away from the crime-ridden slums of Sao Paulo. "That's why I still visit prisons and will do for the rest of my life. You have to stay faithful to your ideals."
*New WHO Chief Asks Brazil to Help AIDS Battle 05-22-03 (Yahoo) Brazil has become a model for the developing world with its program to offer free, universal antiretroviral treatment and break drug patents if manufacturers refuse to slash prices. Brazil's policy to use homemade generics has outraged big pharmaceutical firms, but has cut the cost of its AIDS program.
*New Argentine cabinet revealed 05-22-03 (BBC) The list includes the existing Economy Minister, Roberto Lavagna, who retains his post in recognition of his role in stabilising the national accounts. In the words of one local newspaper commentator, the new cabinet is both homogeneous and pluralist.

 ASIA
*Philippine leader aims to lure more outsourcing 05-23-03 (boston.com) Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who visited with President Bush and was feted at a White House state dinner Monday, came to the nation's financial capital yesterday to pitch US companies on the benefits of moving some of their key business and technology tasks to her island nation.

 OIL PRICES
*Is oil wealth a blessing or a curse? 05-23-03 (economist.com) THREE decades ago, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sent oil prices rocketing. By 1980, a barrel cost $30, ten times the price in 1970. Consumers suffered, whereas oil producers reaped an enormous windfall. Many assumed then that oil was a gift of God that would transform poor countries into flourishing economies within a generation. Yet even during those heady early days there were doubts. Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso, a founder of OPEC, complained in 1975: “I call petroleum the devil's excrement. It brings trouble...Look at this locura—waste, corruption, consumption, our public services falling apart. And debt, debt we shall have for years.”
*Natural Gas Pipeline Explodes in Texas 05-22-03 (Yahoo) Authorities in southeast Texas were trying to determine what caused a natural gas pipeline to explode and burn into the early hours Wednesday. No injuries were reported when the 30-inch pipeline near the Sun Oil Co. plant in Nederland ruptured about 11 p.m. Tuesday, Houston Pipe Line Co. spokesman Peter Main said. "We have the line shut in and the damaged area isolated," Main said Wednesday. "Investigation and repairs are underway."
*Iraq Oil to Flow Quickly After Sanctions End 05-22-03 (Yahoo) "The oil is ready to flow. The tanks are full," the diplomat said. "I think you will find it will move quite quickly. There is no need to set up the monitoring board first. They'll just get on with it. The only thing they are awaiting is the lifting of sanctions." The diplomat referred to an "International Advisory and Monitoring Board" that will monitor oil exports and other issues in post-war Iraq. The diplomat declined to be identified and is close to negotiations for the Security Council resolution that will lift 13-year-old sanctions on Iraq,
*Bill to target gas prices 05-22-03 (freep.com) Two Michigan legislators are expected to introduce a bill Thursday that could put an end to major retailers selling gasoline below prices at independent filling stations. State Sen. Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, and state Rep. Charlie LaSata, R-St. Joseph, backed by the Michigan Petroleum Association and other fuel retailing associations, are sponsoring legislation dubbed the Michigan Petroleum Marketing Stabilization Act, which they say could even the playing field for gas prices throughout the state.
*Heavy oil joint venture finally gets green light 05-22-03 (theglobeandmail.com) With the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board giving the go-ahead to Surmont, Calgary-based ConocoPhillips said yesterday that it will further scrutinize the economics of the venture before deciding whether to proceed with construction. The AEUB approval "is clearly a very important stepping stone," said company spokesman Peter Hunt.
 
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05-23-03  optimist: well i just watched every bond i could see making +3 ,4 points in the last 2 days.. But percentagewise its different of cause.. Anyway , great for you friends!

05-23-03  carib: Opti: quite right, but my impression was the dip-recovery was sharper in Bra-Ecu. It turned out also the swap from Ven 18 to Ven 27 was well timed.

05-23-03  manya: Ecuador 12 is tarding in screens 85.15 86.50 Market is closing in about an hour.

05-23-03  optimist: Carib: as a matter of fact it was nearly indifferent, which credit to increase, isnt it? :))

05-23-03  Glutt: <carib: voodoo screens now confirm glutt screen.... > meanwhile RF30 97.062/97.25 on broker... wally, can you smell puts cooking???

05-23-03  carib: Turns out it was not bad to increase Bras on the recent dip...;-)))

05-23-03  Fox: <Ecuador 30 64.000 65.500 + 1.25> Once or twice a day they post correct prices.

05-23-03  Glutt: Fox, cannot be, i cannot imagine BNET quoting correct prices. check it again... same broker Ecu30 64-65,5...

05-23-03  Cheetah: advice thanks on your interest in my brz40 short...yes it continues and quite promissing...the 5 point uptick in ven27 and the positive carry are quite nice...

05-23-03  carib: voodoo screens now confirm glutt screen....

05-23-03  carib: Glutt: being both <amateurs> we only have <voodoo> screens!

05-23-03  Cheetah: SPAL do you have any recent, very recent concentrated bets ???

appreciate any new ideas...

thanks...


05-23-03  Glutt: oh my mistake ... ask 90.125 !!! call in three tenors...

05-23-03  Glutt: btw, time to sing songs again... She bond ask 90. savo, please say something for monkeys.

05-23-03  Fox: <Ecuador 12 85.100 86.500 + 1.50 > BradyNet

05-23-03  Glutt: savo/carib, i do not know which screen you look but right now Tradition brokerage shows Guano12 85-86.5 1x1 on screen...a deal price, not a freaking indicative

05-23-03  Fox: <Schweinekram for Wally's standards> Wally was more open minded in ´99 ;-))

05-23-03  Informator: URU 05 dentist at 77,48 in Frankfurt and heading in the eighties.

05-23-03  Fox: <insiders" in GRIC are sellers while in SBAC they are buyers> It is always nice having insiders buying!

05-23-03  Fox: <Schweinekram> For the record hte proper translation would be <Caca de Puerco> ??

05-23-03  Jackie: <Spal> I find interesting that "insiders" in GRIC are sellers while in SBAC they are buyers.

05-23-03  optimist: as you say Savo.. as you say.. But when you start reading my complete posting b4 shooting ? i wrote: "around NY opening time";))

05-23-03  Fox: Guys I posted an article of Lavagna in ColoresFiles interesting!

05-23-03  Advice2: Cheetah, just for the record are still short Brazil 40 @91?

And when exactly was I wrong?

I am always wrong! ah!ah!ah!


05-23-03  carib: Savo: be aware that most of the bonds you hold are Schweinekram for Wally's standards... BTW: you got mail.

05-23-03  savonarola: carib.....<What about 25% a year on 2.750.000$...and 25% a day on the remaining 250.000?>

NOOOOOOOO WAAAAAAAYYYYYY!!!!!!

I am <risk averse>!


05-23-03  savonarola: opti...<Savo: asked my broker for a good level in Ec12 around NY opening time..>

Guano 12 usually does not have prices in the London morning. There were probably still no screen prices when you called your dealer, and he might have guessed the price. Latter 85-88 came up on screen. It seems it is there at the moment. MANYA!!!!!!!


05-23-03  SPAL: <Spal might be crying off his eyes that he is not Warren Buffet... > guys we must relax ... else hubris will deal us, certainly me swift punishment ... my target is 100% p.a. ... so far I am running at 190% annualized ... not bad for a poor monkey who is simply trying to escape monkeydom ... but I feel sure that this really is just an average among the colores ... one difference might be that I don't diversify much ;-))

05-23-03  Fox: <your technical "doji's> I dont know much about <technicals> but follow the graphs of .comdirect for the Braz40.

@ 96.00 even I could see an extreme stretched rally looking at the MACD & CCI!

Now prices seem to have completed a <W> do.


05-23-03  Cheetah: i agree with Jackie...May 24 will be interesting...especially after the communist assassin dictator wannabee is saying all over Peru that he will sign with the oposition next week the agreement brokered by Gaviria: BULLSHIT !!!

Pinky is trying to look good before some type of masacre tomorrow in Catia march...beware of "lobos in clown hats" as per that old maracucho proverb !!! http://www.globovision.com.ve/index...


05-23-03  Cheetah: Advice when your technical "doji's" signal at least 1 correction BEFORE it happens...i will begin to look at your ideas...in the meantime your "only up" technicals have been quite wrong lately...

05-23-03  Fox: <... voodoo ;-)> Cool Voodooooooo...!!!!

05-23-03  optimist: Paxy: I guess Alex is in there.. from 2 dollars.. and never selling..not even in March 2000..

05-23-03  SPAL: <<GRIC> -- where do you get this stuff, <SPAL>?> ... voodoo ;-)

05-23-03  carib: What about 25% a year on 2.750.000$...and 25% a day on the remaining 250.000? Even if ALL schweinekram goes to 0 (likelyhood 0,01%) one is protected... Golden rule: as soon as the schweinekram portion becomes more than 2.000.000, cut it in half by adding to non-shweine section.

05-23-03  PaxWax: <<i prefer 25% a year on $3mm over 25% a day on $10k.> reg Buffet, Spal might be crying off his eyes that he is not Warren Buffet... > Get yer sliderule out... 25% per day compounded on a starting figure of 10 thou can become many millions before the year is out, I think you'll find.

05-23-03  manya: Vene: the news on a potential swap is the following: a local newspapaer is reporting that there is an 80% probability that the government may swap US$1bn in debt in exchnage for a 10-yr bond. the article mentions DCB's as target for buyback but they stress that the trasnaction may seek to raise fresh funds too. A few weeks ago there had been talk of a private placement so this is better, more transparent. Morgan Stanely may be doing deal...

05-23-03  PaxWax: ROS has had a checkered career... I bet I'm the only one to have followed it up from 5 to the twenties, down again to 5, now up to 10.80... pretty poor. Anyone ever follow this creature, plaything of Russian petty bureaucrats?

05-23-03  Advice2: Hey Fox and who else cares.... Look how the weekly charts of the present assets or indexes will close this week... Weekly candle charts...

TNE
TCP
CBOND
SPX
QQQ
INDU
EMT

Have a look at how the weekly charts will be looking like, before selling risky assets please...


05-23-03  Glutt: <i prefer 25% a year on $3mm over 25% a day on $10k.> the difference is that you are high net worth person... & i am not but 25% a year also not bad. hehehe...

reg Buffet, Spal might be crying off his eyes that he is not Warren Buffet...


05-23-03  optimist: Savo: asked my broker for a good level in Ec12 around NY opening time..

05-23-03  carib: Opti: I trust you, but a screen still says Guano 12: 85-88!

05-23-03  savonarola: opti.....<84.4-84.75>

BN, may be wrong, is showing 85-88


05-23-03  PaxWax: <GRIC> -- where do you get this stuff, <SPAL>? You make Peter Lynch look like the neighbourhood coffee and bridge investment club!

05-23-03  SPAL: <vivent les Schweinkrams> !!

05-23-03  PaxWax: Rostelecom and Tatneft are flying today -- vivent les Schweinkrams --

Savo, SPAL et al, the wonderful returns we have seen cannot be extrapolated for many months into the future. We don't need Myron Scholes to tell us that. Every day is a challenge, in any market, INHO. Furthermore, to make money in EMB, you need money, and what was the source of that money? Surely not EMB. Whereas, with Schweinkram, $20,000 (not a very serious sum) can become 200,000 (as we have seen). I feel free to invest in any market I feel I have some understanding of (or lacking that, to follow slavishly in <PILLY'S> footsteps.) (;-)))


05-23-03  optimist: Carib : not so fast ;) 84.4-84.75 the trades are going.. Wally is a champion on his "reinvestment" there;)))

05-23-03  carib: What happened in Quito? Guano 12 ask 88!

05-23-03  savonarola: There seems to be some <monkeys> regreting their shorts in Guano 12.

05-23-03  Glutt: <$500 million loan from the World Bank intended to help revive the economy, narrow a fiscal deficit, and provide food, health care and other aid to 22 million Argentines living in poverty. > this long list of good deeds to be achieved with only 500m $... World Bank In Wonderland, part II

05-23-03  Advice2: spx 21 days average = 927

Good entry point in my opinion, stops at 920 only....

The market already tried to test it once today and also might not go there again....

This is why I am saying the mild open looks good for longs...

Brazil stocks and EMB bonds will trade with positive correlation with US markets today I think, but tecnicaly look even better...

Good Look!


05-23-03  Advice2: Today looks like that days when it is easier to take short sellers, stock market short sellers stops, than buyers stops....

It also smells like buyers are dominating the game, and they take some profits just to get stronger and back in as soon as short sellers start to think they are getting powerfull....

GAME!


05-23-03  SPAL: GRIC ... look for weakness ... approaching 52 week high ... excitment is there ...

05-23-03  Amateur: Glut, <I am more exposed to UST shift > YES, that is the kernel of the 2003 situation.

When EM yielded 16 % and UST 5%, EM investors could rightly disregard USTs yield-shifts as irrelevant.

That is not the case anymore. If you hold Russia or Panama, your biggest risk now is a rise in US rates. I dont mean <biggest risk> because I believe it is likely to happen soon. I mean it because "if and when" it happens, it would cause big price drops to Russia and Panama bonds. Much bigger than when spreads were 1000bps

I hope, Wally, this does not sound too ANALyst...? :-)


05-23-03  Advice2: Do not be surprised with a very strong close today on risky assets...

This open, mild and nice, looks great tecnicaly!

But who the fuc.... cares about tecnicals right?

Sexta, 23 de Maio de 2003 [10:52:07] Mensagem nº 176912

Origem: www.projecao.com
NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000

Prazo: Curto Prazo

Título: Aberturas aqui e la fora....

Responder Apagar

pra mim tem cheiro que tão cuzinhando o galo pra comer tudo outra vez no meio do dia e raspar o prato no final da semana....

La fora num vai ter numero até dia 27, acabou de passar o vencimento, os EUA ja são donos do iraque e neguinho ta dando aquela enfiadinha básica pra tomar em dobro e tomar também o stop dos vendedores de notícia velha....

Aqui neguinho é ligeiro e já percebeu e como aqui o cenário é melhor ainda, paga-se pra cima e vamos ver quem quer vender....

Quem quiser que venda, eu num to vendo sinal de venda em lugar nenhum...

Até


05-23-03  optimist: Gluty: Russian super-puper mega canje?!! Tssss... Salomon people read us! fat comission they smell:)))

05-23-03  Glutt: opti, i will not slap you but I will not agree with your 5-year argument, remember it is difficult to say because 1991-1998 were years of transformation from Soviet to market system and I am not certain if many parallels can be made. you may argue from the point of exploding corporate borrowing but looking at leverage ratios can tell you a normally operable South Asian company will show you much higher leverage but that does not mean it busts tomorrow... true some may worry about too many companies borrowing but tell me who cares if Ryazan Lakokraska small shit venture not known to anyone goes bust? answer – no one cares. and if real interest rates are negative companies should be happy to borrow because paying negative rates is possible even with zero growth. your sales still may be inflated and inflation above interest rates means you get more than pay on debt even with zero real growth. a problem comes if such situation is reversed with economic stagnation wiping out any relative growth so lets wait until Russia sees growth rates falling to zeroes.

Real problem IMnsHO is current policy of government, which instead of using cash excess to stimulate for developing viable infrastructure, promoting modernization and investment, continues to buy back and redeem ahead of schedule expensive by now debt when it is not needed and even harmful...

In present situation Russia should have considered to issue new low coupon bonds to replace old high coupon bonds and extend duration.... but not buying back debt at mad prices and fighting to get inflation to ridiculous levels which most probably might bring low competitive Russian economy to stagnation times.



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