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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, May 29, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*G-8 Summit: Photo Op, Or Serious? 05-29-03 (Washington Post) When leaders of the major industrial countries gather in Evian, France, this weekend, they'll face a stark choice. The so-called G-8 leaders can continue their recent practice of avoiding self-criticism, patting themselves on the back for a few recent actions and declaring the economy is on the mend -- thereby confirming that these gatherings are just expensive photo ops.
*Globalization opens door to new dangers 05-29-03 (USA Today) When leaders of the major industrial countries gather in Evian, France, this weekend, they'll face a stark choice. The so-called G-8 leaders can continue their recent practice of avoiding self-criticism, patting themselves on the back for a few recent actions and declaring the economy is on the mend -- thereby confirming that these gatherings are just expensive photo ops.
*Demonstrators raise their colors ahead of G8 summit 05-29-03 (Yahoo) Demonstrators began arriving to protest at this week's summit of the world's industrialized nations in Evian, as lawyers and non-governmental organizations stood by to help in case demonstrations degenerate into violence.
*Bush and the economy 05-29-03 (washtimes.com) To say that President Bush was dealt a bad hand on the economy is a gross understatement. Although it was not known at the time of his inauguration in January 2001, the economy actually began contracting during that year's first quarter — and then continued to decline for the next two.
*Economy Grows at Revised 1.9% Rate; Jobless Claims Fall 05-29-03 (Yahoo) The U.S. economy grew by a slightly faster pace than last estimated during the first three months of the year as consumers spent at a stronger pace than previously thought. Separately, the number of workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined last week, though sluggish economic growth kept the jobs market depressed.
*Businesses open wallets for new tech gear 05-29-03 (Yahoo) The latest: 30% of 1,393 small firms surveyed last month plan to buy computers, machinery and other equipment. That's up from 27% in March -- and the first monthly rise since December, says the National Federation of Independent Business trade group. Moreover, bigger-firm executives plan to spend 4.2% more on tech in the next 12 months vs. the previous 12, says a survey by CIO Magazine. Researcher Aberdeen Group predicts a 3.6% jump in spending this year from last. While that is below the double-digit growth of the 1990s, it's up from recent years. Wall Street has taken notice, too. The tech-packed Nasdaq composite index is up 22.4%, outpacing the 16.7% gain in the Dow Jones industrials since a rally started March 11.
*Feds Parry: Economy Still in Soft Patch 05-29-03 (Yahoo) In a signal that Parry may support further cuts in interest rates to spur the recovery, he said the Fed still has room to lower rates in spite of forecasts of stronger growth because the pace of growth will not be fast enough to use up all the spare capacity in the economy. "At this point, it appears that the economy is still mired in the soft patch we hit last fall," Parry told a lunch organized by the Nevada Development Authority.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Brazil to Probe Energy Bid Allegations 05-29-03 (Yahoo) The alleged agreement allowed AES to buy Brazil's Eletropaulo for the minimum bid of $1.78 billion, according to a report in the Financial Times of London. Enron agreed not to bid for the utility in return for other potentially lucrative energy deals with AES, an investigation by the newspaper found. In response to the report, Brazil has decided to launch an inquiry into the allegations and whether the utility could have fetched a higher price, said Dilma Rousseff, the country's mines and energy minister.
*Venezuela Would Comply With an OPEC Cut 05-29-03 (Yahoo) Venezuelan officials had previously indicated the country would continue producing more than 3 million barrels a day this year to recover losses stemming from a two-month strike, raising doubts about the South American country's commitment to OPEC quotas. Venezuela's OPEC current quota is 2.81 million barrels a day but will rise to 2.92 million barrels a day in June. Rodriguez said Venezuela's production was 3.3 million barrels a day. But industry sources say it's much lower. Venezuela lost an estimated $6 billion during the opposition-organized general strike, which collapsed in February without achieving its goal of ousting President Hugo Chavez. The stoppage temporarily paralyzed the world's No. 5 oil producer.
*New Argentina President Shakes Up Armed Forces 05-29-03 (Yahoo) New President Nestor Kirchner overhauled Argentina's top military brass on Wednesday in what could lead to the biggest shake-up in the armed forces since the end of dictatorship two decades ago. In a move that angered the army, Kirchner named a trusted general from his home province as top commander and pushed three armed forces heads into retirement. Twenty-four other officers, two-thirds of all military generals, could also soon go.
*New Argentine Pres. Pushes Military Brass into Retirement 05-29-03 (Yahoo) However, people close to Kirchner, who took office Sunday, said off the record that the move was designed to purge the armed forces of human rights violators. The president's decision, which was criticized in military circles but praised by human rights groups, will lead to the retirement of 27 generals, 13 admirals and 12 brigadier-generals, including the top commanders of the three armed forces.
*U.S. Sets Date to Sign Free-Trade Agreement With Chile 05-29-03 (Washington Post) The Bush administration announced plans yesterday to sign the U.S.-Chile free-trade agreement on June 6, ending its diplomatic cold-shoulder treatment of the South American nation for failing to support the war in Iraq. The planned ceremony would come exactly one month after the signing of the U.S.-Singapore free-trade agreement. Although the negotiations on the U.S.-Chile deal were finalized shortly before the U.S.-Singapore accord late last year, administration officials gave priority to Singapore because it was a member of the "coalition of the willing" backing the attack on Saddam Hussein's regime.
*Colombias War Creeps Over Border Into Venezuela 05-29-03 (Yahoo) There were red traffic cones on the road and the armed men guarding it wore camouflage uniforms that seemed similar to those used by Venezuela's National Guard. But the Venezuelan bank executive making his daily early morning drive to work in western Zulia state had the fright of his life when the four men pointed their automatic rifles at him and ordered him out of the car.
*Venezuela Govt, Opposition to Sign Deal 05-29-03 (Yahoo) Venezuela's government and opposition will sign an agreement on Thursday on a plan to hold a referendum on President Hugo Chavez's rule, the chief mediator of negotiations announced Tuesday. The agreement, brokered by the Organization of American States, ends six months of formal talks between the two sides aimed at restoring stability to Venezuela. It also addresses possible votes on the terms of other elected officials.

 ASIA
*China going to Evian but does not aspire to G8 membership 05-28-03 (Yahoo) President Hu Jintao will be among an enlarged group of world leaders gathering in the French city of Evian on June 1, but he will not be lobbying for a permanent seat at the body, officials said. "In terms of the level of development, China is not qualified for membership of the G8," Vice Foreign Minister Liu Guchang told a briefing in Beijing. "However, we attach importance to its role." Instead, China is likely to use its presence in Evian for a round of traditional bilateral diplomacy.

 AFRICA
*Trucks Threaten to Overtake Camel Caravans in Sahara Salt Trade 05-29-03 (nationalgeographic.com) Since the Middle Ages, camel caravans have navigated north from the fabled city of Timbuktu, in present-day Mali, West Africa, in search of the gold of the Sahara desert—salt. Traveling across the windswept sand dunes, caravans often numbering more than hundred have journeyed to the salt mines of Taudenni, 500 miles (800 kilometers) north of Timbuktu. A human necessity and source of commerce, salt has been in high demand in West Africa since the 12th century when it was first found in the sand dunes of the desert.

 OIL PRICES
*OPECs Silva: May Consider Cutting Output at June Meeting 05-29-03 (Yahoo) The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may, at its June 11 meeting, consider reducing output to keep world oil prices within its target range of $22 a barrel to $28 a barrel, the group's Secretary General, Alvaro Silva, said Wednesday.
*Oil at 5-Week Highs on Tight U.S. Stocks 05-28-03 (Yahoo) U.S. light crude rose 19 cents to $29.35 a barrel, after hitting a high of $29.63, the highest level since in over a month. London benchmark Brent rose 10 cents to $26.34 a barrel. Prices rose on a renewed pledge from Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, that beginning in June it would abide by lower OPEC quota levels agreed to last month.
*Oil Rises on U.S. Stock Worry 05-28-03 (Yahoo) The inventories have come into sharp focus as the Memorial day holiday last weekend marks the start of the U.S. driving season when Americans take to the roads on vacation. U.S. gasoline consumption in the summer accounts for 12 percent of global energy demand during the period. "There were all these expectations of a wall of crude which was supposed to arrive and resolve all the stock problems but that didn't seem to happen," said John Waterlow, analyst with Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh.
 
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05-29-03  PILLZ: <and i am showering in cash once a day.> Vaalllly, do me a favor, buy a 15% YTM schweinkram-bond, a no-brainer SBA 10.25% 2009 at 83 max., you will enjoy the ride..

05-29-03  panasonic: <and i am showering in cash once a day> :-))

05-29-03  wally: <he he he...times change...> indeed they do <carib>.

<philly> read my lips:

<N O <E X P L A N A T I O N <NEEDED !!!>>>

the managers decide and explain only among themselves.


05-29-03  wally: <psonic> i hold Bra40, Uru27/33, Ecu12, Ven27, Tur30, Pan27, Col27 and EDF (bond fund). sold today UMS33 and Phi25, sold yesterday RF28. will sell soon Pan27 and Col27 and i am showering in cash once a day.

05-29-03  panasonic: <Wally-master> what EM are you still holding?

05-29-03  panasonic: Hi friends, about CF I flirted with same idea some days ago...my opinion was that if we join forces, we could have flexibility to profit on present market holes. Specially spreads between same issuer but in different currencies (aka monkey biz). Buy lower priced & short the higher priced and cover FX risk thru contract. This is only possible in big blocks...I dont know if viable, but if there is a way, I'm in!

05-29-03  PILLZ: There is another problem, switching between Schweinkram and EMB and cash and etc..opportunities change every month, flexebility to transfer from one opportunity to another is slowing with a fund..there are times that I was 70% in EMB and 30% in schtocks and now i am 30% in EMB and 60% in schweinkram and 10% in schtocks, when I 'm working alone I could do it in a few days, with colores funds..more explanation then concentration..

05-29-03  carib: I bet if one year ago I would have suggested to wally to invest <30% schweinekram, 30% stocks, 10% I dont't know what> he would have answered with a question? Are you nuts? or Laga-level? he he he...times change...

05-29-03  carib: Pill: you can notice we were both writing on the GX example at the same time: I posted before reading your input...and the same on your side.

05-29-03  carib: about "slapping" <(IHT) Administration officials view Bush?s overnight trip to Evian, cut back from two days to one, as an obligatory stop sandwiched between the trip?s meaty highlights ? a meeting in Jordan with the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers, a meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia at the 300th anniversary celebration of St. Petersburg and a speech in Krakow, Poland, on the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Administration officials say that it is no accident that Bush is delivering the keynote address of the European leg of his trip in Poland, an important ally in what the administration considers the ??new?? Europe. President Aleksander Kwasniewski committed 200 Polish troops in the Iraq war, and he will be only the latest of leaders that Bush has thanked for supporting him.>

05-29-03  wally: <if the idea concretise, I'm ready to put 2M$ to start a schweinkram-fund.. it will be 60% schweinkram, 30% EMD and 10% schtocks> that would be a <philly fund>. my idea is that the fund should not be lopsided but the investment should be more evenly distributed. something like

-30% Schweinkram

-30% EM Debt

-30% Schtocks

-10% i don't know what

-each manager to be selected would handle what he knows best. the manager does not explain why he is doing what and is bound only by the OK from the other two managers to carry out business. this serves as a circuit breaker if one of the managers goes overboard and buys shares of a non-existent silver mine in Outer Mongolia.

-even if something goes wrong (losses) there is no need for an explanation because we all know that shi*t happens.

-if profits are made nobody wants an explanation.

-all what is needed is an annual meeting where things like profit distribution et al are decided by single majority.


05-29-03  carib: Spal starts the SPAL stellar fund: he can have a bunch of my money into it...if he puts the bunch of his money too...Savo say we do better because the money is ours and we have no manager ready to stab us in the back: that is the core value that must be safeguarded...IMHO.

05-29-03  carib: Pill: let me make an example you know very well: GX. you studied the issue, and suggested to start buying...when actually prices were still higher than now. Having a well informed and strong idea on the issue, you averaged down when everybody else was throwing the stuff to the pigs. Later you swapped AGX for GX at the right time...and then GX bonds for GX bank credits. Conclusion: you made a good amount of profit on it. Some colores followed because they understood the idea. Other because they trusted your opinion. None fared as well as you did...because timing, volumes and execution were as important than the idea itself. Now, if you put 2 million $ of your own money in the schweine-fund...that is guarantee enough for me you will manage it very carefully: your money is there! So I do not know to know all the ins and out and approve every move. I would be glad to be able to discuss the ideas you are working on from tite to time...and occasionally I might be able to present a useful argument concerning one point... but I would feel safe in adding say 250K of my own just to the Schweine leg of the fund you manage...because I trust your common sense. Imagine savo runs the nuclear waste section. Maybe there I might give opinions more often...but yet again I would mostly trust you good sense. Fox starts the fox-china leg...including a section trading R$ NDFs...again, I put my trust in his senses...etc etc..

05-29-03  PILLZ: <all what the investors want to see is PROFIT> yes, but sometimes before profit you could have a paper loss and more buying in the same paper loss name, there is an explanation problem, I experianced it with GX, when at one point I had a paper loss of 50% and I was still buying to end with 250% profit, go explain it to a normal thinking guy..I would say the same for Conseco etc.. for about 60% of schweinkrams, I always start with a paper loss and end with a big big % gain after a year..

05-29-03  wally: <it would take a lot of time to explain to the non active members all the schweinkrams> there is nothing to explain <philly_sheikh>. all what the investors want to see is PROFIT.

05-29-03  wally: <My temporary conclusion is the following: 1) the idea is not bad, but not easy to implement> but still much easier than to whip some hardcore colores into the first big Fiji meeting.

give me three managers and i'll give you the <colores fund> with articles of assocation and all necessary rules and regulations and other legal stuff to protect the individual as well as all investors.


05-29-03  PILLZ: Carib, why ?, if everybody would once a week resume his investment holding and trading and sometimes alert when he feels some change in his strategy, also the trading to sell part of a position, because he sees a better short term potential in another etc..If we had a fund, on my part, I would not change my investment strategy, but it would take a lot of time to explain to the non active members all the schweinkrams..still , if the idea concretise, I'm ready to put 2M$ to start a schweinkram-fund..it will be 60% schweinkram, 30% EMD and 10% schtocks..

05-29-03  carib: My posting about <pooling resources ans skills> from yesterday...provoked a debate about CF. I agree the cooperation we have today is quite OK: it works.

The fact that most people reacted: if there was a CF we would invest in it...proves that idea is not so crazy as it sounds. The fact fewer people volunteered to take an active role proves...we are what we are.

My temporary conclusion is the following: 1) the idea is not bad, but not easy to implement. 2) the CF would be very interesting for Colores who want to spend less time trading and more time enjoying life 3) It is always better to let the best people take care of what they do best. The second best attempt of imitation is not so often succesful.


05-29-03  amigo latino: <wally: <amigo latino: Does anybody know the reason for a holiday in Europe today?> catholic holiday, either "ascension" or "corpus Christi". in Germany this is "Father's Day".>

wally, thanks. I am surprised that the schools and the offices are working normally in my country(which is predominantly “catolico” ).


05-29-03  wally: <drjbg: FWIW, if find the idea of a cf fund very interesting. I hope the idea is seriously pursued> where there is a will there is a way.

05-29-03  drjbg: FWIW, if find the idea of a cf fund very interesting. I hope the idea is seriously pursued.

05-29-03  Goldbug: Goldbug here, with today's precious metal analysis.

Question: Can gold go much higher than where it is now, $370?? Answer: I don't know, but the people who paid $370 for it today certainly think so.

Who was it among us, that was advocating puts at $348 not long ago? How's that endeavor going?

Mark my words: Gold will break $400 in 2003, and it won't look back. From the $400 price the next milestone is $1000 per Oz, a number that I think the market will gravitate towards, simply because it's such a nice fun, round number.

Goldbug


05-29-03  savonarola: Veni reserves continue climbing...... for <Barrionuevo>

http://www.bcv.org.ve/cuadros/2/211...


05-29-03  SPAL: <05-29-03 PaxWax: <SPAL> <BLX 7.56 -14.67%> ~ I sold @ ± 6.60 but may consider getting back in... if I am not tempted by one of the other <<<<"chollos">>>> I see mentioned here. (:-)) >

Yes - it was meant in the past tense to Carib.


05-29-03  PaxWax: <SPAL> <BLX 7.56 -14.67%> ~ I sold @ ± 6.60 but may consider getting back in... if I am not tempted by one of the other <"chollos"> I see mentioned here. (:-))

05-29-03  PaxWax: House of Saud: shifting sands ~ http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/asia/10...

The leadership in Saudi Arabia is in danger and, in fact, has been for some time. The Arabian Peninsula, the heart and soul of the Islamic world since its genesis 1,400 years ago, has now become the shelter for one of the Middle East's most austere and traditional governments and societies. And it is because of this that the opaque administration of an ailing King Fahd and the ostensible, yet highly contested, successor, Crown Prince Abdullah, is coming under extreme pressure from both without and within.

For the past several months, factions within Washington's intellectual and foreign-policy circles have been calling for the re-evaluation of the United States' relationship with the desert monarchy. Many opine that the negative aspects of the existing regime (the kingdom's perceived complicity with terrorists, social repression) now outweigh the positive ones (Saudi Arabia contains the largest quantities of the most crucial resource on the planet)... (CONTINUES)


05-29-03  moneypenny: Barbudo sick...

http://www.insightmag.com/news/4373...

Maybe this is why...

http://dfn.org/news/americas/news-s...


05-29-03  SPAL: <I never claimed to be a good time> just as well as these kind of things should not be claimed, but are bestowed ... and I notice that this has already been decided Carib.

05-29-03  carib: Spal: concerning <timing> I never claimed to be a good timer...others suggested it. Looking at the R$/$ graph, however, my suggestion of buying R$ above 3,05 proved quite limely: it only spent a few hours above that level in the last month...

05-29-03  SPAL: <colores fund> clearly I like the romance of this concept ... there is no question that there is a wealth of skill and experience here ... superior in a lot of ways to so-called professionals. I do also understand Pilly's perspective and the reasons he listed. In a sense we have a virtual fund now ... to the extent that one cares to glean wisdom and <advice> from the others here. The fact that it is freely and generously given is one of the good things about being a <colore>.

My own view on "formalizing" a structure with "managers" is that it has hints of employment ... a notion that is despised by all and certainly the relative <poors> and those still themselves in the thrall of <monkeydom>, me included. Although I do like the vision of limited partnership shares that are tradable only among colores or redeemable from the pool ... could be useful to those who for whatever reason decide to be less active.


05-29-03  manya: SNP, lovely stock !! Was suggested by a fiend a while back when lookinf high dividen stocks. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=snp&am...

05-29-03  carib: SPAL: according to your standards, fair price for BLX should be around 8,25...which would imply one should have sold early in the morning today and buy back right now....if one is a day trader. Otherwise one can consider buying a bit more right now, and sell it back on tuesday after getting the rights on monday...

05-29-03  SPAL: Carib - how did you do on BLX - re: our last exchange on this one? Just making sure your timing skills remain finely honed.

05-29-03  carib: May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan National Guard helicopters strafed Colombian villagers on the border as well as rightist paramilitaries on at least two occasions in recent months, El Tiempo reported, citing officials and witnesses. Two small aircraft and four helicopters with Venezuelan registry allegedly strafed the village of Rio de Oro, in Colombia's Norte de Santander province, on March 21 when the paramilitaries were locked in battle with members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the daily said, citing a report to Congress from the Defense Ministry and the attorney- general's office.

05-29-03  Fox: <PTR> Yes Gents this is very sexy!! Indeed is acutally one of the 15 assets I found! Im also following SNP & CEO

Lets see If I can make this thing work:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...


05-29-03  Advice55: Brazil is fly! More good news ahead!

USA is fly too! Economic numbers in USA are about to turn the corner and markets have not priced in this yet.... Not with the euro at 1.18 and spx bellow 1.000.....

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/...


05-29-03  Advice55: Every one knows, Consumer confidence comes first on the corner in USA economic indicators....

Next jump will be in consumption, sales, gdp, earnings and than imployment....

Nothing is priced in at this point....

USA is fly as well...

Buy it at any deep, this economy is not japan and who bets on that will be looking like who thought Brazil was argentina and sold CBonds at 50...

But, who am I after all?

I am always wrong, right?


05-29-03  Advice55: You know what, I think speaking about the future, USA will be fly, toguether with Brazil USA is the fly of the moment....

Why?

Cause the dolar got too cheap and USA assets got too cheap too as a result of that, and if USA does not turn the corner, Europe is f---ed any way....

Soo, USA assets are fly my friends, bargains, USA asset prices, specialy stocks are at bargain levels after the dolar fell....

USA will be fly very soon toguether with Brazil, the best 2 fllight in investment universe this days....

USA got too cheap in relation to fundamentals and charts look ready to rally as well, tecnicals look good....

Be prepared to be hurt if you are on the sell side of USA assets this days....

Regards


05-29-03  wally: <neusa: May 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar <<<may rise>>> against the euro and the yen after government reports showed the U.S. economy grew faster...> result = <1.189>


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