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Friday, May 30, '03
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Brazilian banks and companies in 2003 have sold more than $5 billion of debt abroad. Most of its has been sold by banks to take advantage of U.S. interest rates, now at four-decade lows, to buy Brazilian government bonds that yield 25 percent or more.
"We're hearing speculation of more sales in the coming days," said Mario Battistel head of foreign exchange at Novaçao Corretora de Cambio SA in Sao Paulo. Rates look like they'll stay high enough here for long enough to keep the money flowing."
Brazil's central bank said it kept its benchmark target interest rate at 26.5 percent last week because inflation, now at a 12-month rate of 16.8 percent, twice the bank's 2003 target, is not falling fast enough, according to a statement released today. "If inflation were falling faster, we'd see the bond sales fall as the outlook for the difference between the cost of capital and return in Brazil fell," Battistel said. "The faster inflation falls, the faster rates will fall and that's bad for short-term capital flows that are behind the real's rise."
Growth also rose, though a bit less than expected by 15 economists polled by Bloomberg. The country's gross domestic product in rose 2 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. The economists' estimate was for 2.1 percent growth. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2002, growth fell 0.1 percent.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva today said that while inflation was slowing, change would take time, in a speech to supporters at a rally at a Ford Motor Co. plant near São Paulo. "Even a hungry man has to wait 90 days for the beans to grow," the president said. Lula has been on a round of meetings with foreign investors, local businesspeople and foreign news organizations trying to put his Workers' Party's socialist past behind it, insisting that building investor confidence was the key to economic stability.
Brazil's benchmark 8 percent "She" bond maturing in 2014 rose for a
second day, adding 0.56 to 89.88 cents on the dollar, paring the
yield to 10.50 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Yes... but in Ecuador.
http://www.eluniverso.com/core/elun...
Brazil's federal, state and municipal governments and state-
controlled companies spent 3.5 billion reais less than they raised
in taxes and other revenue in April, its highest recorded monthly
nominal surplus in more than a decade and the first since April
2002. Its primary surplus, the excess of revenue over expenditure
before interest payments was 9.85 billion reais in April, from
6.75 billion reais in March.
"Any strong structural improvement like this is going to be
good for the real," said Marcelo Saddi, head of fixed income at
BNP Asset Management Ltda. in Sao Paulo, which manages 6 billion
reais of bonds and stocks. "The government is showing its
commitment to cutting expenses."
A higher surplus should make it easer for the government to prevent its debt from rising and eventually reduce it, lessening the risk of default and boosting growth in South American's largest economy through lower interest rates.
Brazil's debt, now almost $400 billion, has been falling in local currency terms as the country cuts spending and boosts revenue from taxation. The debt fell to 1.13 trillion reais in April from 1.17 trillion reais in March.
A stronger real has also made it easier to pay the almost 40
percent of its debt that is in dollar-denominated or indexed to
the dollar. The real's gains today represented the currency's
biggest one-day advance since a 3.1 percent climb on Jan. 6. to 711.85 per dollar.
Colombia's peso weakened for the third day in four, declining
0.2 percent to 2,861.02 per dollar while Peru's new sol
strengthened 0.1 percent to 3.4945 per dollar. Argentina's peso
was unchanged at 2.8825 per dollar. Venezuela earlier this year
fixed its bolivar at 1,598 per dollar.
the next crisis ?? the next opportunity ?? (in fiji 30% too much? - is that really true?)
By Lawrence C. Hartman
We Are Turning Japanese‘a !!!
5/29/2003
We have heard for years…. No Way!!!!
The US will not follow the Japanese. There are too many differences.
On May 29,1995, the Japanese one-year bond yield was 1.25%. At 3:00 PM EDT 5/29/2003 the US Treasury one year is yielding 1.25%.
BOTTOM LINE:
Good Luck with differences!!!
Current bonds:
SBA 8.5%
RCN 8.3%
LCI-qwest 6.3%
Calpine Canada 6.25% (zEuro)
Calpine 3.5%
Level3 3.5%
Edisson mission 4.3%
Continental airlines 4.1%
Mirant Americas 3.2%
Revlon 2.4%
Loral space 1.3%
EMB
Pinky 27+ zEuro 08 8.9%
Guano 30 6.5%
CH 11 schweinkrams
GX 6.75%
UPC 4.4%
Conseco 4%
Adelphia 2.7%
Fleming 2.5%
Healthsouth 1.85%
Worldcom 1.5%
Shtocks:
Alvarion + RC + Diamondsworks 9.4%
No cash, if I need it, I sell Edisson , near par, next to sell is Continental at 85
I have become inquisitive about APP only recently, hence I do not know enough about the company or its subsidiaries o their bonds to be able to make any buy judgements. Are youor others buying? If so which ones?
<Stay away> is from Motley Fool and not from me!
The lone comment <Precautionary or Too Pessimistic> is mine.
For years, going to the Internet revolution, Amazon kept on going up, the equity stock kept on going up and up and up. We know about the $400 targets, $1,000 price. During that whole period of time, the Amazon bonds kept going lower, and was trading as junk. Who was correct? Only until last year, when Amazon became a viable company, did it seem as if the bond market plays were completely wrong. So, we`re getting two different pictures here. We`ll see who wins out, it will be interesting. Fascinating, like they`re on two different planets. >
Amigo, Qwest have market cap of 7.6B$, if you take their debt it is 22.3B$ + 2.3B$ cash, or a 27.6B$ C° value, if I was a shareholder I would sell the schtock and buy the sub.LCI debt at 22% YTM, the Qwest bond YTM is 10 to 11%..
Telecoms Ring With Debt
Independent research and analysis firm Standard & Poor's pointed out today that nearly $20 billion in debt issued by telecom and cable companies will come due through 2005.
That shouldn't come as a surprise to investors in these companies, but it highlights why one must tread lightly in this suffering sector.
According to the report, telecom and cable firms have amassed about $206 billion in debt, with more than 20% coming due by the end of 2005. However, the strongest players in the business -- most notably the regional bells -- issued much of the debt, and these companies will likely have no problem refinancing their obligations.
<But that still leaves about $19 billion in debt that can be credited to the weakest players in the business. S&P describes the likelihood of payment from firms like Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q - News), which carries over $6 billion in debt coming due through 2005, and Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR - News), which carries $1.5 billion maturing in the same time period, as "worrisome to highly doubtful." >
It's no secret that the overall telecommunications sector has suffered greatly these past several years. Basically, demand for products and services vanished just as these companies completed extensive network upgrades, which they incurred massive debts to accomplish.
But the saddest part of this saga is the fact that fraud seems to have taken a heavier toll on the firms that played fairly, as they struggled to keep up with the phantom growth of their unscrupulous competitors. Those same competitors are now emerging from bankruptcy debt free (for more on this, see Bill Mann's recent article).
In effect, cheats such as WorldCom are now in a better position to compete than before. Worse, their defaults and bankruptcies have curbed the appetite of the credit markets for anything telecom, making it much more difficult for the honest firms to get funding. Getting burned once is bad enough, but twice?
With few options, the weakest players will be left scurrying to renegotiate debt maturities or to sell assets. In the end, more defaults and bankruptcies are likely. Stay away. >
YahooLucent also has entered into new senior secured credit facilities totaling $595 million. The facilities allow the company to issue up to $245 million in new letters of credit, renew up to $350 million of existing letters of credit, and secure certain other obligations. Lucent's 7.25% of 2006 were quoted up about two points at 95 bid, 96 offered.
Bonds of Charter Communications (CHTR) rose about one point in a bout
of speculative buying. The 8 5/8% notes due 2009 were quoted at 71 bid,
72 offered.
Qwest Communications International Inc.'s (Q) bonds added about one
point Thursday after the company announced first quarter results and a
new $1 billion loan to repay an upcoming bond maturity.
The 7 1/4% notes due 2011 were quoted at 83 and the 13 1/2% notes due
2010 were quoted at 114.
The Denver telephone company, which has been struggling with a
dwindling core business and investigations into its accounting
practices, Thursday reported net income of $150 million, or 9 cents a
share, versus a net loss of $23.9 billion, or $14.32 a share, for the
first quarter of 2002. But the company also warned that the results
could be affected by the company's financial restatement of financial
results in 2000 and 2001.
Meantime, the pace of new issuance has slowed considerably since a
deluge of more than $5 billion in the week before Memorial Day, but a
few deals are on the horizon. Those include offerings from Triton PCS
Holdings Inc. (TPC), Crum & Forster and Texas Industries Inc. (TXI),
according to IFR Credit. >
Another no-brainer YTM 22% LCI-Qwest 7.25% 2007 at 62
http://www.debttraders.com/details....
and the last no-brainer RCN corp YTM +/- 45%
http://www.debttraders.com/brefine....
Interesting to note that all 3 no brainers are not followed by Anals-Schweinkrams..
am i glad...vfeeeeewwww...
TCP is at last UP a big 3 cents from 3.99...wow what a rally it sure is FLYing...
and in the equities half in EM equities...
you must learn not to play with yourselves...
shower your girls with diamonds...
http://www.bcu.gub.uy/autoriza/sgoi...
<psonic> no news, just a shift in my strategy.
http://www.nasdbondinfo.com/asp/bon...
http://www.debttraders.com/details....
The bank, in a faxed statement, said it raised the portion of assets funds can invest abroad to 25 percent from 20 percent. The funds had $6.7 billion, or almost 18 percent of assets, invested abroad as of end April.>
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/new...
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