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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, June 12, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Poor show at Evian 06-12-03 (ahram.org.eg) Billed as an opportunity for French diplomacy to reassert itself following divisions between Europe and the United States over the US-led war on Iraq, this week's summit of the world's leading industrialised nations, the so-called G-8, which took place in the French resort town of Evian from 1 to 3 June, was overshadowed by continuing protest in France at government plans to reform the country's pensions and education system
*Greenspan: Rising Natural Gas Rates Imperil Economy 06-12-03 (npr.org) Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warns a House panel that the rising cost of natural gas could weaken the U.S. economy. Greenspan says more imports may be necessary in the short term to offset the trend toward higher prices. Hear NPR's Scott Horsley.
*Fed: Economy Sluggish in Most Areas 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "Although reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated some signs of increased economic activity in April and May, conditions remained sluggish in most Districts," the Fed said in its "beige book" report, an anecdotal summary of economic conditions around the country.
*Poll: Bush Approval Drops on Sour Economy 06-12-03 (Yahoo) The Quinnipiac University survey revealed that nearly twice as many American voters were more concerned about the sagging economy than about the possibility of terrorist attacks in the United States.
*Natural Gas Shortage Could Hurt Economy, Greenspan Tells House 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices," Greenspan told the House Energy Committee. Natural gas fetched about $2 per million British thermal units, a standard unit measure, through most of the 1990s. That price helped drive industrial demand up, especially among steel makers, chemical companies and fertilizer firms. Many converted their plants to natural gas.
*Natural-gas spike hits US consumers 06-12-03 (csmonitor.com) Conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill is that nothing ever gets done on energy issues - or many others - unless there is a full-blown crisis. If so, the prospect of costly air conditioning this summer and idle factories this winter because of soaring natural-gas prices could be just the boost needed to leverage a long-contested energy bill out of the Senate and into law. Republicans hope so. That's why Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was invited once again to Capitol Hill Tuesday to sound the alarm again on how "very tight supplies" of natural gas could threaten the economic recovery.
*U.S. told dont rely on gas from Canada 06-12-03 (globeandmail.com) The United States shouldn't look northward to ease its worsening natural gas supply crunch because Canadian production won't be able to keep up with soaring demand south of the border, a U.S. congressional committee has heard.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Argentinas latest strongman? 06-12-03 (csmonitor.com) Argentina's new president, Nestor Kirchner, is surprising his compatriots with the speed with which he is asserting control. While most expected him to step gingerly onto the country's center stage, since taking the oath of office May 25 he has
*Argentine faces dirty war trial 06-12-03 (BBC) Mexico's Supreme Court has ordered the extradition to Spain of a former Argentine navy officer to face charges of genocide and terrorism. Ricardo Cavallo was arrested in the southern Mexican resort of Cancun in 2000 after a newspaper report said that five former political prisoners had identified him as their torturer. A Spanish judge, Baltasar Garzon, has accused Mr Cavallo of human rights crimes during Argentina's 1976-1983 military dictatorship.
*Interest rates hit recovery of Brazils factories 06-11-03 (Financial Times) Brazil's industrial production lost its tentative grip on its fragile recovery in April in yet another sign that the economy is unlikely to recover during Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first year as president. Seasonally-adjusted industrial production in April fell 0.1 per cent over the previous month, and slumped 4.2 per cent over the same period last year, the largest fall since December 2001. Mr Lula da Silva has managed to regain investor confidence with strict fiscal and monetary policy since taking office in January. Yet the cost of stability has been a sharp reduction in economic activity.
*Powell pledges support for Argentina 06-11-03 (Financial Times) The Bush administration will help Argentina overcome the difficulties afflicting its economy, Colin Powell, US secretary of state, said on Tuesday. In the first visit by a top US official to Argentina since the country descended into financial chaos 18 months ago, Mr Powell said: "We will try to be as helpful and supportive as we can." Mr Powell described his hour-long meeting with Néstor Kirchner, Argentina's new president, as "very open and cordial, as befitting [the] strong relationship between two friends".

 AFRICA
*Turning Africa Around 06-11-03 (Washington Post) For an early look at what the writer Robert Kaplan has described as "the coming anarchy," you need only read the daily news reports out of Africa. They refute the quaint Hegelian notion that history always moves forward; in Africa, it has been running in reverse for the past two decades.

 OIL PRICES
*OPEC Holds Output, Meets Again in 7 Weeks 06-12-03 (Yahoo) Ministers left supply quotas unchanged and called for improved adherence with individual allocations under combined limits of 25.4 million barrels daily. Steamy world oil prices gave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries the breathing space to wait to make its first cutbacks since the end of 2001.
*Oil Jumps as U.S. Fuel Stocks Fall 06-12-03 (Yahoo) U.S. light crude in New York was up 63 cents at $32.36 a barrel, hitting a peak of $32.50, the highest level in 12 weeks and nearly 35 percent above last year. In London, benchmark Brent crude was 31 cents higher at $28.39 a barrel.
*OPEC maintains production ceiling, demands quota compliance 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We agreed in April that the ceiling is 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1 and today we reconfirmed this agreement. We hope there will be no overproduction (above quotas) during this period," until July 31, he told reporters Wednesday, at the end of an extraordinary meeting of the cartel in Qatar. In a statement released at the end of the meeting, OPEC said: "Stability had been maintained in the market following the decision taken by the (OPEC) conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 million bpd, with prices remaining within agreed levels.
*OPEC to Maintain Current Oil Production 06-11-03 (Yahoo) Before the decision was made, Venezuelan Deputy Oil Minister Luis Vierma had said he thought OPEC might be able to keep its current output levels for the rest of the year. And the Nigerian delegate, Rilwanu Lukman, a former OPEC secretary general, said: "I tend to agree with that."
 
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06-13-03  savonarola: <Mendoza> 69-74 in Berlin.

06-13-03  Glutt: <06-12-03 Cheetah: http://www.lolfun.com/flash_0103/pe... wally H and his fan club...can't recognize if it's carib and glutt... signed,
Cheetah
Founding member CCC Club >
it is always fun to read you CheeChiquita... keep on going our Cheetah-comedian. btw, you are impolite to carib because you have not answered about 10K, so was this 10 thousands or 10 millions, ah...Guru master? from my side another question: 10K = 10 thousands of what?

06-13-03  Glutt: merugo, to add, i find your opinion quite interesting. who knows... EU does not have God's insurance, like other else. interestingly is that now US policies towards EU become more hostile day by day and opinions expressed in media reflect that.

06-13-03  Glutt: you see Pax, one thing when someone is making nice story on speculating about this and that even knowing it is BS at least it is interesting reading ... another thing is when some like RussiaJournal knowingly and intentionally writes in mentor manner UTMOST BS while often happen to know shit about the subject itself. i do not know if RJ improved since last year, you judge them but I am not interested to know RJ imbecile opinions.

06-13-03  Glutt: <06-13-03 PaxWax: Russian Oligarchs and conspiracy theory: http://russia.jamestown.org/pubs/vi... (Don't get all hot under the collar, Glutty!) The definition of "oligarch" may be undergoing changes.> i will not, Paxik... btw, i found it interesting to read unlike the shit from RussiaJournal written under a patronage of its editor Agnlo Saxon brainaputed bull-like-lady. i told you i once met her breifly and have good reason to think about RussiaJournal in this way.

06-13-03  danni: ElGrande. I learnt my lessons a couple of years ago, not to bet against currencies and I think I just needed a small reminder, not to bet where the currency will be. I will definitely not take my chances again. I am just glad that this time it was a small amount of losses

06-13-03  Glutt: merugo: << carib: good, quite sarcastic but correct comment on the new EU savings tax: http://www.washtimes.com/commentary... No carib I disagree, EU policy may be far abstute than what appears. Being sure of abundant rollover of their state debts, they try to dissuade people from saving by punishing this mood in every possible way. They cannot admit this since a large part of their electors are running in their third age with a minimal consumer attitude.> IF someone assumes you are right THEN there is only one conclusion: SELL ALL EUROPE YOU CAN UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE... Argentine would be remembered as investor honeymoon compared to what you would get with Europe collapse.

06-13-03  ElGrande: <. I see it completely different.> time will tell Danni

06-13-03  danni: ElGrande: danni...still holding your 1/2 mm euro short? No, I am not holding it, I put a stoplost at 1.158, but I still hold short the gold at 348. Regarding the euro, last night, I had an Investment Manager over for supper, from HSBC, and they reckon that the euro will trade at 1.27 by the end of the year and 1.34 next year and the pound at .8 to the euro. Well that's what they foresee. I see it completely different.

06-13-03  PaxWax: Nuclear weapons in Iran by 2006? IMO the problem is, who runs the place. The PASDARANS have free rein to terrorize the population, who presumably are sick of the situation. Any Iran experts amongst the <colores> who can clarify the situation there? Any hope of a "democratic transition?"

http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0610/...


06-13-03  ElGrande: danni...still holding your 1/2 mm euro short?

06-13-03  PaxWax: Oil and gas in the Caspian sea: Russia rules the waves. Take a look at Russia's deal to buy Turkmenistani gas... these two countries will have no problems paying their debts from here to 2028, if everything goes to plan: http://russia.jamestown.org/pubs/vi...

06-13-03  danni: Just got back from the holyland, and received on the 11th into my account the switch for 500k Uru10= 350k uru15 & 150k uru33 .Reading for the last three weeks the colors comments, to me it looks like Brazil is just taking a breather before it is going to give us a couple of more points on the upside in the next few days. Carib, it looks like the Cheetah is pulling your leg by having imaginery trading. Wally, is it true that you are holding 46 - 49% in cash. I hold 8% of my portfolio cash. Any reason for holding such a big cash in hand

06-13-03  PaxWax: SBA ~ <SPALcito>, if the shares have risen by 1000% and the bonds only have doubled, for us latecomers is there any interest in buying some bonds? Really sorry to have missed out on the shares, but I was otherwise engaged. Perhaps <Pilly> or others could comment, too.

06-13-03  PaxWax: Didn't we have a poll or wager on oil prices in June? I was below the mark, but a lot closer than the rest of the punters. What was the date, end of June?

Present oil prices seem most unrealistic, in my humble estimation.


06-13-03  PaxWax: Russian Oligarchs and conspiracy theory: http://russia.jamestown.org/pubs/vi... (Don't get all hot under the collar, Glutty!) The definition of "oligarch" may be undergoing changes.

06-13-03  Glutt: <and buy INTEL at the right moment, they will sell mountains of chips at the right time, no matter what.> INTEL will launch new chips end this year and early next year, preannouncement made i guess. however new chips will hardly represent new tech breakthrough since... SO...i still like INTEL as long term pick and believe new tech is cooking behind the door moving us closer to using prozessors applied before only on super computers. secondly i guess some software makers will have to advance their soft to bring it in line with increased chip capacity. today s soft is down below possible resource utilization. IMHO innovation cycle becomes shorter for IT so we may not wait next 12 years for breaking tech. pressumably 5-7 years. concerning revolutionary achievments they happen irrespectively of any cycle IMHO.

06-13-03  moneypenny: <Argy Bond Deadline Is Extended Until July

By MARCUS WALKER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

FRANKFURT -- A consortium of European banks led by Germany's HVB Group said Thursday it is extending its deadline for collecting Argy government bonds held by European retail investors.

The banks aim to pool up to $9 billion ($9.01 billion or €7.66 billion) of Argy bonds held privately in Germany and five neighboring European countries in order to negotiate a better deal for retail investors when Argy restructures its foreign debts.

Argy's ladrones defaulted on its debts in December 2001, including $49 billion of bonds sold to foreign investors. Unusual for an emerging-market country, a large proportion -- $24 billion -- had been sold to retail investors, mostly in Germany, Italy and Japan. These small investors are the worst placed to negotiate with Argy about the terms of a debt restructuring, and so the banks that brokered the bonds to them have arranged collective representation.

So far, HVB's group of mainly German banks has collected just over $1 billion in bonds, with investors contacting the banks at a slower pace than expected. The collection period was due to end on June 17, but the banks have extended it to July 31 to allow more retail clients to come forward.

Some Japanese banks led by Shinsei Bank are preparing a similar initiative, while Italian banks have collected powers of attorney from retail bond buyers. The European and Japanese banks are hoping that pooling the retail bonds will allow a team of negotiators to negotiate terms with Argy that will please retail investors -- who typically want to get their money back, even if the repayment date is postponed.>

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB...


06-12-03  SPAL: SBAC Fans - fyi.

http://www.earnings.com/fin/newsDet...

Fidelity Mutual Makes Major Investment in Boca Raton, Fla., Cell Tower Maker Jun 12, 2003 (The Palm Beach Post - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via COMTEX) -- Mutual fund giant Fidelity has bought a big stake in SBA Communications, a blue-chip vote of confidence in the struggling cell tower operator, whose stock just a few months ago was trading at pennies per share.

"Clearly this is a seal of approval from a major player," said Greg Gorbatenko, analyst at Chicago-based Loop Capital. "But SBA still has a ways to go before it's completely out of the woods."

In a report filed Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Boston-based Fidelity revealed it had accumulated more than 4.6 million shares, or slightly more than 10 percent of Boca Raton-based SBA.

Last fall, SBA's stock tumbled to an all-time low of 20 cents after the company warned that business conditions, especially in the area of new tower development, were deteriorating rapidly.

The steep fall in the share price prompted several investors to swoop in and make high-risk bets on a possible turnaround.

Most notable among these was Jeffrey Raynor, a Dallas-based investor associated with the powerful billionaire Bass brothers.

In December, Raynor bought a 7 percent stake in SBA, which turned out to be a great trade because the shares were acquired at prices of 35 cents each or less.

On Wednesday, shares in SBA (Nasdaq: SBAC) closed at $2.98.

Behind the much-improved stock price is a much-improved outlook on SBA's ability to pay down its huge debt load, which stood at nearly $1 billion late last year.

Efforts by Chief Executive Jeffrey Stoops to raise cash by selling more than 800 towers will allow SBA to lower its total debt by over 20 percent this year, Stoops said in March, when the tower sale was announced.

"They also got their lenders to lengthen the maturity of the debt," Deutsche Bank analyst Anthony Klarman said Wednesday.

The tower sale and the debt renegotiation have combined to lift the price of SBA junk bonds, which in the fall were trading as low as 45 cents on the dollar but are now trading at 95 cents, Klarman said.

Stoops did not return phone calls seeking comment on Fidelity's stake in SBA, which will own and operate 3,076 towers after the 800-tower sale is complete.

By Ted Jackson


06-12-03  victorn: I received the following from the bondheads.

Feed The Pig

I got some questions for you…
(1) Who does not pay state or local income taxes? (2) Who is loosely regulated and highly leveraged? (3) Who has had almost zero accountability to anyone? (4) Who is exempt from normal securities regulations? (5) Who receives an estimated $10 billion a year in hidden taxpayer subsidies?
(6) Who can pay millions to “Government appointed” executives without concern?
(7) Who is not required to maintain the same cash reserve as their competitors?
(8) Who can take on riskier and riskier transactions and not worry? (9) Who gets to keep the profits and share the losses with taxpayers? (10) Who can get away with incomprehensible financial reports? (11) Who has been suspected by analysts, of cooking-the-books for a long time?
(12) Who can afford to spend millions each year on Washington lobbyists?

(13) Who has a credit line of $2.25 billion with the US Treasury Department?
(14) Who has an implied Federal Government guarantee? (15) Who has had both political parties acting as their cheerleaders/defenders?
(16) Who appointed Franklin Raines? (17) Who appointed Jamie Gorelick? (18) Who appointed Jack Quinn?
(19) Who has Sir Alan Greenspan been opposed too? (20) Who has been in Mr. Baker’s cross hairs? (21) Who failure would cause the biggest scandal of the 1990’s? (22) Who lives in a pineapple under -the-sea?

Boy, that Pig will hunt!
Sitting at the trough of plenty and feeding “at will”. How do you get a deal like that?

BOTTOM LINE:
Answers to “Feed the Pig”.
Answers (1) through (15) and(19) through (21) : Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
Answers (16) through (18) : Bill Clinton Answer (22) SpongeBob SquarePants


06-12-03  panasonic: <MP> kindly send some proof asap, I can go and buy some properties at dirty cheap prices before Pinky is reduced to dust :-)

06-12-03  moneypenny: Wallito:<isnnt it <MoneyPenny>?>

Can't wait to see myself proven right and you buying me another bottle of Mendoza.... :-))))


06-12-03  carib: I think the document from Palocci on Coloresfiles is well worth reading, for those that understand portuguese. It explains quite clearly that reforming the public pension system in Brasil means cutting from the rich to have more money to educate the poor...and it shows the government is very determined not to yield on this. Basically, it's a very sound approach (including to the debt problem)...of course, it bears no resemblance to the PT electoral program, that was proposing quite the opposite...and gave us the opportunity to buy Br bonds and Reais at half price...

06-12-03  Advice55: fox you are still there? Working late? Are you worried about something?

06-12-03  Advice55: Carib congrat on your postings these days, Just read tham, very good work!

Regards


06-12-03  Fox: < Fox...sell or reduce that brazil 40...> In a way Cheeta Im short the 40 as I sold 50% of it to buy Guano12 & Veni27.

06-12-03  Advice55: <06-12-03 Fox: Whos buying Brasil?>

Every one that tried to take profits plus new comers that can already see the new trading range being formed, plus every one that stayed out of the new issue, plus every one that shorted Brazil cause of the issue, plus any one than likes spread over with low risk, witch is exactly the case of brasil today, plus any one that knows the news before it goes to news papers, cause news are going to become strongly positive very soon....

Now my question is: Who the hell cares about selling Brazil this days? Cheetah? ah!ah!ah! To buy veny, before oil prices melt down like ice cream? ah!ah!ah!


06-12-03  carib: Fox: Br 40 @ 110,7 would have a YTM below 10%. in that case Br 27 should trade around 103, and Br 30 around 120. I think we would hear no complains...

06-12-03  Advice55: <also sold UBB, TBH, ELP and that sh#t TCP...when i switched to argi equities...>

<and adding more argi this week...while the "Fly" of TCP is still stuck at 4.04...>

This guy wins the oscar, the day he speaks about TCP bummm, close at 4.25! hehehehe

The oscar goes to Cheetah! ah!ah!ah!


06-12-03  Advice55: <The Braz40 could be trading around 110.77 before the issue of optionality is a concern.>

Correct fox! Did any one miss me?


06-12-03  Cheetah: http://www.lolfun.com/flash_0103/pe...

wally H and his fan club...can't recognize if it's carib and glutt...

signed,

Cheetah
Founding member CCC Club


06-12-03  wally: <Dollars to donuts the al qaida trail leads through Caracas> and pigs fly everyday from la Isla del Barbudo via el Mar de la Felicidad to Pinky City doing their duty as carrier pigeons. isnnt it <MoneyPenny>?

06-12-03  PaxWax: Should read <...Ukrainian BONDS...>.

06-12-03  PaxWax: With regard to today's comments on various firms' research, I find that ML is no better or worse than most of the big boys. They were spot on with regard to timing the purchase of Ukrainian shares, only I bought €uros instead of dollars. Basically it's just an added source of information, nothing magical: if you caried out 1% of their recommended trades, you would soon be eaten alive by the commissions!

06-12-03  PaxWax: THE ECB SLASHED its forecasts for economic growth and inflation this year and next, stoking speculation that interest rates will drop further. But the bank's chief signaled a rate cut isn't imminent.

Deutsche Bank is in talks that could lead to the German firm taking a large stake in UFG, a leading Russian investment bank. The discussions are still at an early stage, but any deal would be a major sign of renewed confidence in the Russian financial market.


06-12-03  panasonic: <Fox: GGAL> agree with you zorro, if you are willing to play ladronia with a chance of 100% loss, then go for the one with potential of 400% gain...very nice, felicidades!


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