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Posted by
BradyNet
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Friday, June 13, '03
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I wonder what <Barclay's Barrionuevo> and <Merril Lynch> are doing with their Guano shorts?
Covering at 90 what they sold at 86?????
May be they wait.. because there is a <teachers' strike> in Guano!
Should we HA! HA! HA!!! or JA!! JA !! JA!! or may be AJ! AJ! AJ!
<dr. Guru> = most probably no
<dancing on table> = to be considered
http://babelfish.altavista.com/tran...
Are they overpriced in view of ?:
1) Excess banking capacity in Argentina. The economy shrunk by >50%
Although adjustments might have taken place, still it is likely that there is an excess capacity.
2) Many banks are still making losses.
3) Even when the banks start making profits( perhaps after the implementation of the announced housing construction stimulation programs of the government), the banks may not be able to repay the whole debts—some (un)generous hair cuts are likely.
4) When do they start making profits ? (some (very few banks are making profits right now?)
Please comment.
http://www.nationalpost.com/comment...
The strategies “apparently” have a reasonable weight( or overweight) to the element of fear--loss of some capital (or prudence)! Naturally people differ in the evaluation of the uncertainities and the weight given to them. :-)))).
We told them so!
I don't understand the relationship between expenses and return. By analogy you seem to be saying that if you would not be covering your expenses twice you would be taking more risk. May be what a person should do in that situation is reduce expenses. Investment is a risk reward exercise, or so I think. I can't see the reward of holding 50% cash, if one can still sell if a downturn starts. That is why I am asking.
The debt sale was a private placement, the FT said, a transaction in which securities are sold directly to the buyers rather than through a public offering.
Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega also is considering offering investors an exchange of existing foreign-currency bonds for new longer-term debt, the report said. Nobrega met with investors in London last week, the FT said<<<.>>>>
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/new...
Autor: wally
Datum: 15.05.2003 04:45:48
da zwischenzeitlich schon manche mit dem "beichten" angefangen haben moechte ich auch mein scherflein dazu beitragen. habe das letzte wochenende nicht nur mit haeretischen sondern gerade zu ketzerischen gedanken verbracht. moment mal... muss einen grossen schluck aus der vodka flasche nehmen... sonst getraue ich mich nicht zu "outen".
also... nachdem ich jahre verbracht habe diversifikation zu predigen (egal ob man mir zuhoerte oder nicht) bin ich zu folgendem entschluss gekommen: ich werde den teufel tun und meine 20% cash renditebringend anlegen sondern habe bereits begonnen weiterhin die bonds zu verkaufen die einem (renditemaessig) die traenen in die augen treiben, i.e. RF, UMS, PAN, COL. mein momentanes ziel ist alles abzubauen was unter 8.5% liegt und entweder cash oder kurzfristige AAA (max 2 jahre) bis zu 50% meiner holdings aufzubauen.
gruende:
-es wird zwar ein schweinegeld kosten bzw. schweinkram-verluste an nicht erwirtschafteter rednidte einbringen ABER mir ist klar geworden dass ich die verluste gar nicht trage sondern es sind die verluste meiner erben.
-ich moechte mal wieder in ruhe einige der vielen buecher lesen die ich in den letzten jahren kaufte und von denen ich nur den titel auf dem umschlag kenne.
-meiner frau morgens wenn sie morgens (stunden nach mir) aufsteht mit einem froehlichen "guten morgen" und einem herzhaften kniff (oder auch mehr) in ihr hinterteil begruessen anstatt ihr zu sagen "die affen in London wissen mal wieder nicht ob sie kaufen oder verkaufen sollen" oder "die €URotz-D€ntist€n sind heute ganz kontraer eingestellt und kaufen links und rechts".
-wieder mehr im garten arbeiten, baeume zu bueschen und buesche zu baeumen umzufunktionieren.
-wieder oefters wilde kraniche anlocken die mir aus der hand fressen.
-meinen alligatoren (obwohl es streng verboten ist) mit huenchenruecken (2 dutzend fuer $ 1.75) eine wilde fressorgie goennen an der ich mich ergoetze.
-wie frueher auf meinem grundstueck herum laufen und jedes vogelnest kennen und genau wissen wo wieviel eier bebruetet werden und wo wieviel junge wo geschluepft sind.
ich koennte jetzt noch seitenweise weiter schreiben aber ich sehe an euren gesichtern dass ich euch zu tode langweile.
http://www.bondboard.de/frames/boar...
The agency said the timing of the revision was unfortunate, given that the world oil market was seeking direction after the U.S.-led war on Iraq, but that it did not change the agency's view that global markets were tight, especially gasoline.
"The magnitude of the stock revisions does little to ease the tight U.S. gasoline situation heading into the peak summer driving season," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.
"The increase in crude stocks may, however, signal some relief for an otherwise tighter heating oil situation later this year."
The Paris-based agency revised upwards its estimate of industry stocks in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at the end of March by 78.8 million barrels, of which 49.9 million barrels were crude oil.
After the revision, the IEA said inventories fell at a rate of 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average in the first three months of the year. Stocks switched to a rising trend in April, building by an average 720,000 bpd in that month.
"Despite the revisions, total oil stocks closed April 157 million barrels below the previous year," the IEA said. >
Expecting a downturn in the market does not per se require a large cash position. Prices don't usually fall 40 points in 1 hour while you are preparing a barbecue. If you stay long you still capture the upside, if any, and the coupon and can always sell if you see a crash in the making, and eventually buy again lower.
The cost of staying long, would be the first leg of the downturn which could very well be compensated by the accrual and an additional upside.
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