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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, June 13, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Fiscal Madness 06-13-03 (newsday.com) It would be nice if we could have it all. Who doesn't want big tax cuts, a generous Medicare prescription drug benefit and a shrinking federal deficit? But real life comes with real consequences, demanding hard choices. Taxpayers can't have all those things. There isn't enough money. Delivering both big, multi-year tax cuts and meaningful drug coverage would plunge the federal government deeper into the red, when it is already running record deficits. That's fiscal madness.
*Culture of consumption 06-13-03 (csmonitor.com) Mark Brown wishes his clients would think more about the future. But when deciding whether to buy a new Chevy truck or to set aside $300 a month for retirement, they more often opt for a pickup over peace of mind. Mr. Brown, owner of the Brown Insurance Agency in Biddeford, Maine, says even people in this blue-collar town, who have struggled to make ends meet for most of the past century, have little instinct to save.
*Fed Report Hints at Small Signs of Economic Recovery 06-13-03 (npr.org) The Federal Reserve says business and consumer confidence has risen slightly since the war in Iraq, particularly in Kansas City, Dallas, New York and Minneapolis. But it also warns that much of the country is still struggling with "sluggish, subpar or subdued" economic growth. The Fed will use the data from its survey of economic conditions when it sets interest rates in late June. Hear NPR's Scott Horsley.
*Delaware Tax Loophole 06-13-03 (npr.org) For decades, Delaware has been a tax haven for businesses. Many firms pay next to nothing in state taxes simply by registering key subsidiaries there. But now the system is under attack by states facing budget deficits. NPR's Allison Aubrey reports.
*Producer Prices Fell 0.3 Percent in May 06-13-03 (Yahoo) "The producer price index came in a little below expectations but it really wasn't that surprising," said economist Mark Vitner of Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. The overall PPI drop was just a bit steeper than the 0.2 percent decline projected by private economists and the "core" measure matched forecasts
*Trade Deficit Declines Slightly in April 06-13-03 (Yahoo) But even with the small improvement, America's trade deficit through the first four months of this year is running at an annual rate of $491 billion, far above last year's record deficit of $418 billion. Bush administration critics point to the soaring trade deficit as evidence that the president's policies of pursuing free trade deals as a way to boost America's global competitiveness is not working. The critics say a flood of imports has cost millions of lost American manufacturing jobs.
*Claims, Sales Data Show Tepid Recovery 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The overall sales figure was held down by a 4.3 percent slide in gasoline station receipts as fuel prices tumbled. Excluding the gasoline component, retail sales gained 0.4 percent. "Consumers are still buying, but they're hardly shopping 'til they drop," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.

 LATIN AMERICA
*TotalFinaElfs Venezuela Gas Project To Start End Of Year 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The $129 million first stage of the project should see output of 100 million cubic feet per day of non-decarbonized gas by then, Philippe Guys, director general at YPergas, which runs the operation, said in a presentation to journalists. Refinements, including the contruction of decarbonization facilities, will continue until 2007 when the $474 million second stage will begin, Guys said. TotalFinaElf has 69.5% of the 2 billion cubic foot concession, while Repsol has 15%. Two Venezuelan companies, Inepetrol and Otepi, have 10.2% and 5.3% respectively.
*Argentinas President Moves To Tighten Grip On Government Entities 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The moves come three weeks after Kirchner took over as president, following a campaign during which he promised to come down hard on political patronage and corruption. On Wednesday, four directors from the bank's eight-member board offered their resignation. That comes after the government appointed a new president of the bank last week and three board members resigned. Banco de la Nacion is Argentina's largest bank in terms of branches and deposits.
*IMF Announces Koehler To Visit Argentina June 23-24 06-13-03 (Yahoo) IMF Director of External Affairs Thomas Dawson told reporters Thursday that while he doesn't have a firm date, the program is "on track to be discussed by the board." "I anticipate it will be before the end of June," he said during a regular briefing. While the IMF's executive board must sign off before credit programs are formally approved, in practice, IMF management doesn't present issues for consideration unless they are sure to be agreed. In January, the IMF and Argentina signed an agreement that extends credit on about $6.8 billion worth of loans coming due through August. The second review of this agreement had been scheduled for completion in May, but has been delayed in part because of country's presidential election, and in part because of disagreements over policy.
*Mexican Court to Extradite Alleged Argentine Torturer 06-13-03 (Yahoo) Cavallo is accused of abducting, torturing, murdering and "disappearing" dozens of people during Argentina's 1976-1983 dictatorship. The Supreme Court ruling was hailed by rights groups as a landmark decision in international law. After he is extradited, Cavallo will thus become the first Latin American military officer prosecuted by a judge in a third country, after being arrested in a country where he had no legal problems.
*Argentine Leader Wants Court Investigated 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The new president has accused the high court of using its rulings to fight off a series of investigations into accusations of graft among the justices. In October 2002, lawmakers voted to drop impeachment hearings against the justices under intense pressure from the government of then-president Eduardo Duhalde. Late Wednesday, Kirchner went on national television to exhort Congress to speed up an investigation into the corruption accusations, singling out Supreme Court President Julio Nazareno.
*Venezuelan Oil Workers Get Boost in Court 06-13-03 (Yahoo) Labor Minister Maria Iglesias rejected the ruling and said the government would not rehire some 18,000 employees it has fired at the state-run oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA. "There is no turning back in regard to these firings," Iglesias told the state-run television channel. "A firing freeze for those (workers) has no value." The labor law in question had protected workers from being fired during the period when they were forming their union.
*Venezuela Lawmakers Hold Session in Park 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The lawmakers, gathering in tents in a poor neighborhood of hard-core Chavez supporters, adopted new debate rules intended to make it more difficult to block legislation supported by the president. Opposition members of Congress said they did not recognize the legitimacy of the vote. The bickering boded more turmoil for Venezuela, a major oil exporter to the United States convulsed by a brief coup in 2002 and a ruinous general strike earlier this year. It threatened to further delay efforts in Congress to choose election officials who would run a possible referendum on Chavez's presidency.

 OIL PRICES
*Natural Gas Shortage Could Hurt Economy, Greenspan Tells House 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices," Greenspan told the House Energy Committee. Natural gas fetched about $2 per million British thermal units, a standard unit measure, through most of the 1990s. That price helped drive industrial demand up, especially among steel makers, chemical companies and fertilizer firms. Many converted their plants to natural gas.
*OPEC Holds Output, Meets Again in 7 Weeks 06-12-03 (Yahoo) Ministers left supply quotas unchanged and called for improved adherence with individual allocations under combined limits of 25.4 million barrels daily. Steamy world oil prices gave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries the breathing space to wait to make its first cutbacks since the end of 2001.
*Oil Jumps as U.S. Fuel Stocks Fall 06-12-03 (Yahoo) U.S. light crude in New York was up 63 cents at $32.36 a barrel, hitting a peak of $32.50, the highest level in 12 weeks and nearly 35 percent above last year. In London, benchmark Brent crude was 31 cents higher at $28.39 a barrel.
*OPEC maintains production ceiling, demands quota compliance 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We agreed in April that the ceiling is 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1 and today we reconfirmed this agreement. We hope there will be no overproduction (above quotas) during this period," until July 31, he told reporters Wednesday, at the end of an extraordinary meeting of the cartel in Qatar. In a statement released at the end of the meeting, OPEC said: "Stability had been maintained in the market following the decision taken by the (OPEC) conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 million bpd, with prices remaining within agreed levels.
 
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06-13-03  danni: Should we HA! HA! HA!!! or JA!! JA !! JA!! or may be AJ! AJ! AJ! ......or chi chi chi!!!!!!!!!!!!

06-13-03  savonarola: pana..< Buenos dias, all EM is on fire tdy!>

I wonder what <Barclay's Barrionuevo> and <Merril Lynch> are doing with their Guano shorts?

Covering at 90 what they sold at 86?????

May be they wait.. because there is a <teachers' strike> in Guano!

Should we HA! HA! HA!!! or JA!! JA !! JA!! or may be AJ! AJ! AJ!


06-13-03  danni: and my lula bonds are not for sell but Cheetah TANGAS are

06-13-03  danni: bra40 bot 450k @54 life its sooo difffe...

06-13-03  danni: bra30 bot 100k @48 life its sooo difffe...

06-13-03  danni: bra27 bot 250k @50 life its sooo difffe...

06-13-03  danni: bra09 bot 300k @56 life its sooo difffe...

06-13-03  panasonic: Buenos dias, all EM is on fire tdy!

06-13-03  danni: bra20 bot 1m @54 life its sooo difffe...

06-13-03  carib: <sea urchins> above 35...volume above 1 million...

06-13-03  Glutt: <There, THAT ought to drive the prices down! > stop Pax ,i see you are not up to the task. we have to bring back Opti. last time i saw him swimming in tiger blood with a nice lady...

06-13-03  Glutt: wish you good weekend... SHORTS recommended but only for wearing in hot weather... in case of Cheetah that are TANGAS...

06-13-03  PaxWax: <Yesterday, Russia celebrated the Soviet-sounding name of "Day of the Proclamation of Russia’s State Sovereignty" — which celebrates the country’s autonomy from the Soviet Union.> There, THAT ought to drive the prices down!

06-13-03  carib: Br 40 ask 100,9...<shorts>= fio dental... Ven 27 ask 77,5...that was a good buy... Br 27 ask 96,5...went up more than Br40... Br 30 ask 113,375...went up even more... ;-))))

06-13-03  Glutt: btw, Cheetah.... where are you hiding??? we still have not got any clarification from you concerning 10K... was 10K = 10 kilo of bananas?

06-13-03  Glutt: < wally: <glut> you missed that i am out of <Matka28> since more than two weeks. > hm... you went SHORT??? oh no no no... only Dr Guru is permited and only 10K lots

06-13-03  wally: <naked> = yes

<dr. Guru> = most probably no

<dancing on table> = to be considered


06-13-03  wally: <savonarola: wally.. I don't speak a word of german.. so I can't comment on your posting> try this:

http://babelfish.altavista.com/tran...


06-13-03  Glutt: <there'll be MUCH more than Dim Sum if you attend the party scheduled for november in Fiji 3½! > naked dr. Guru dancing on table???

06-13-03  wally: <he still has enough purchasing power to invite us to a dim sum lunch ... hint hint> there'll be MUCH more than Dim Sum if you attend the party scheduled for november in Fiji 3½!

06-13-03  Glutt: <wally: Bra40 bid and ask above par! > more dim sum from you

06-13-03  Glutt: carib, i just talked to a broker and he told me he expects terrible downside in Brazil BECAUSE someone shorted 10K nominal BR40... beware

06-13-03  wally: Bra40 bid and ask above par!

06-13-03  Glutt: Pax <PaxWax: Matka's 1998 fiasco still weighs heavily on <wally's> mind.> i told you <please post more negative about Matka>... not about <wally's mind>...leave talking about minds to psychoANALysts … speaking of which does anyone here can recommend a good psychiatrist for Cheetah? I am really concerned about Dr Guru shorting too much of late…

06-13-03  PaxWax: <Glutt>, I also posted that MATKA and Turkmenistan will have plenty of means to pay all debts and expenses till (at least) 2028. Read the posting again. In any event, Russia is not where the EMB action is going to be in the next few years... it's happened already.

06-13-03  wally: <glut> you missed that i am out of <Matka28> since more than two weeks.

06-13-03  Glutt: <wally: <ElGrande: Wally, are you gonna sell your '40 to Cheet to cover his short?> i don't own 10.000.000 nominal :~)) > HA !!! this is because you operate retail sizes and Dr Guru is <WHOrESALE>....ops ... should read <wholesale>

06-13-03  Fox: <High Yield & Cash> well known strategy commonly known as <Barbell> was very succesfull from 99 to 2001. <Cash+Prins+Pinche28>

06-13-03  PaxWax: Matka's 1998 fiasco still weighs heavily on <wally's> mind. Luckily he still has enough purchasing power to invite us to a dim sum lunch ... hint hint.

06-13-03  amigo latino: The defaulted bond prices of banks in Argentina –selling near 35-40:

Are they overpriced in view of ?:

1) Excess banking capacity in Argentina. The economy shrunk by >50%

Although adjustments might have taken place, still it is likely that there is an excess capacity.

2) Many banks are still making losses.

3) Even when the banks start making profits( perhaps after the implementation of the announced housing construction stimulation programs of the government), the banks may not be able to repay the whole debts—some (un)generous hair cuts are likely.

4) When do they start making profits ? (some (very few banks are making profits right now?)

Please comment.


06-13-03  PaxWax: The U.N. ontinues its slide into irrelevancy: <<<International civil servants and diplomats from developing countries, appointed by their parent countries on a rotational basis, frequently lacked the qualifications demanded by the UN's job description.> More often than not they were successful in obtaining lucrative New York appointments as a direct result of their personal ties with their nation's leader.> On arrival at the UN, their self-interest motivated them to perpetuate the system that rewarded those within their inner circle.> etc.

http://www.nationalpost.com/comment...


06-13-03  Glutt: Pax, please immediately post more downside news on Matka so you get big dim sum from wally at next Fiji 3.5... are not you hungry?

06-13-03  Glutt: wally, in the absence of opti let me take his role. <MATKA 28 at 175.5/176.5> is your last chance to sell. remember our latest target 176 agreed with leo and me? Now that we reached it... besides you find an article posted today by helping us always Pax about Russian oligarchs and conspiracy and hell knows else which is clear sell signal for anyone who has any MATKA left on the account. Now that I posted properly I expect ten big dimsums on my account… hehehe

06-13-03  amigo latino: <wally have changed my whole strategy from being (in my opinion) widely diversified with 18-20 positions yielding an average of less than 9% percent to half a dozen HY positions only and the rest in cash as AAA pays only a fraction more. whether i sit on this cash or take a part to explore new investment avenues is still an open question…….>

The strategies “apparently” have a reasonable weight( or overweight) to the element of fear--loss of some capital (or prudence)! Naturally people differ in the evaluation of the uncertainities and the weight given to them. :-)))).


06-13-03  ElGrande: <as i posted a few weeks ago in another board> Heresy, Wally, heresy posting on other boards...

06-13-03  savonarola: <Monkeys> facing a hard day today trying to cover their sales of Guano 12 .....

We told them so!


06-13-03  savonarola: wally.. I don't speak a word of german.. so I can't comment on your posting.

I don't understand the relationship between expenses and return. By analogy you seem to be saying that if you would not be covering your expenses twice you would be taking more risk. May be what a person should do in that situation is reduce expenses. Investment is a risk reward exercise, or so I think. I can't see the reward of holding 50% cash, if one can still sell if a downturn starts. That is why I am asking.


06-13-03  wally: <June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela sold $900 million of bonds to China and Qatar this week, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified people in London and Caracas.

The debt sale was a private placement, the FT said, a transaction in which securities are sold directly to the buyers rather than through a public offering.

Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega also is considering offering investors an exchange of existing foreign-currency bonds for new longer-term debt, the report said. Nobrega met with investors in London last week, the FT said<<<.>>>>

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/new...


06-13-03  wally: <PaxWax: <wally>, it's hard to escape the conclusion that your large cash position implies that you foresee a downturn in EMD prices> the downturn will definitely come. but nobody knows whether in three months or three years.

06-13-03  wally: <Wally.. explain to me a bit more our rationale> i have a question for you. isn't it acceptable that a private investor keeps up to 50% cash at 1% or even less if the remainder of his investment still generates an income which is more than double of his expenses?

06-13-03  wally: <ElGrande: Wally, are you gonna sell your '40 to Cheet to cover his short?> i don't own 10.000.000 nominal :~))

06-13-03  wally: <savonarola: Wally.. explain to me a bit more our rationale> the rationale is as i posted a few weeks ago in another board (too long to translate):

Autor: wally
Datum: 15.05.2003 04:45:48

da zwischenzeitlich schon manche mit dem "beichten" angefangen haben moechte ich auch mein scherflein dazu beitragen. habe das letzte wochenende nicht nur mit haeretischen sondern gerade zu ketzerischen gedanken verbracht. moment mal... muss einen grossen schluck aus der vodka flasche nehmen... sonst getraue ich mich nicht zu "outen".

also... nachdem ich jahre verbracht habe diversifikation zu predigen (egal ob man mir zuhoerte oder nicht) bin ich zu folgendem entschluss gekommen: ich werde den teufel tun und meine 20% cash renditebringend anlegen sondern habe bereits begonnen weiterhin die bonds zu verkaufen die einem (renditemaessig) die traenen in die augen treiben, i.e. RF, UMS, PAN, COL. mein momentanes ziel ist alles abzubauen was unter 8.5% liegt und entweder cash oder kurzfristige AAA (max 2 jahre) bis zu 50% meiner holdings aufzubauen.

gruende:

-es wird zwar ein schweinegeld kosten bzw. schweinkram-verluste an nicht erwirtschafteter rednidte einbringen ABER mir ist klar geworden dass ich die verluste gar nicht trage sondern es sind die verluste meiner erben.

-ich moechte mal wieder in ruhe einige der vielen buecher lesen die ich in den letzten jahren kaufte und von denen ich nur den titel auf dem umschlag kenne.

-meiner frau morgens wenn sie morgens (stunden nach mir) aufsteht mit einem froehlichen "guten morgen" und einem herzhaften kniff (oder auch mehr) in ihr hinterteil begruessen anstatt ihr zu sagen "die affen in London wissen mal wieder nicht ob sie kaufen oder verkaufen sollen" oder "die €URotz-D€ntist€n sind heute ganz kontraer eingestellt und kaufen links und rechts".

-wieder mehr im garten arbeiten, baeume zu bueschen und buesche zu baeumen umzufunktionieren.

-wieder oefters wilde kraniche anlocken die mir aus der hand fressen.

-meinen alligatoren (obwohl es streng verboten ist) mit huenchenruecken (2 dutzend fuer $ 1.75) eine wilde fressorgie goennen an der ich mich ergoetze.

-wie frueher auf meinem grundstueck herum laufen und jedes vogelnest kennen und genau wissen wo wieviel eier bebruetet werden und wo wieviel junge wo geschluepft sind.

ich koennte jetzt noch seitenweise weiter schreiben aber ich sehe an euren gesichtern dass ich euch zu tode langweile.

http://www.bondboard.de/frames/boar...


06-13-03  Fox: <Unprecedented upwards revision to oil stock data-IEA Reuters, 06.13.03, 4:02 AM ET
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), said it made an unprecedented 79 million-barrel upwards revision to its oil inventory data for the industrialised world in March.

The agency said the timing of the revision was unfortunate, given that the world oil market was seeking direction after the U.S.-led war on Iraq, but that it did not change the agency's view that global markets were tight, especially gasoline.

"The magnitude of the stock revisions does little to ease the tight U.S. gasoline situation heading into the peak summer driving season," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

"The increase in crude stocks may, however, signal some relief for an otherwise tighter heating oil situation later this year."

The Paris-based agency revised upwards its estimate of industry stocks in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at the end of March by 78.8 million barrels, of which 49.9 million barrels were crude oil.

After the revision, the IEA said inventories fell at a rate of 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average in the first three months of the year. Stocks switched to a rising trend in April, building by an average 720,000 bpd in that month.

"Despite the revisions, total oil stocks closed April 157 million barrels below the previous year," the IEA said. >


06-13-03  Fox: <it's hard to escape the conclusion that your large cash position implies that you foresee a downturn in EMD prices.> Not really it also means Wallito got too <Ritch> ;-)

06-13-03  Fox: <fox you are still there? Working late? Are you worried about something?> Yes actually I have a sort of an uncomfortable feling these days. I hace accumulated an important amount (for me @ least) of book unrealized gains on an on line broker.

06-13-03  savonarola: wally..<your> instead of <our>.

06-13-03  savonarola: Wally.. explain to me a bit more our rationale.

Expecting a downturn in the market does not per se require a large cash position. Prices don't usually fall 40 points in 1 hour while you are preparing a barbecue. If you stay long you still capture the upside, if any, and the coupon and can always sell if you see a crash in the making, and eventually buy again lower.

The cost of staying long, would be the first leg of the downturn which could very well be compensated by the accrual and an additional upside.


06-13-03  ElGrande: Wally, are you gonna sell your '40 to Cheet to cover his short?

06-13-03  wally: rf30 <100.375 100.500>

06-13-03  wally: Bra40 <99 / 100>

06-13-03  PaxWax: <wally>, it's hard to escape the conclusion that your large cash position implies that you foresee a downturn in EMD prices.

06-13-03  PaxWax: I AM RELIEVED you took the article on Russia with calm, Glutt. Please feel free to post any articles on that subject which you feel to be correct and interesting. BTW, the link to that article appeared in the RJ. Lots of worthwhile links there from the WSJ, FT, and many more. (:-)

06-13-03  wally: <danni <Wally, is it true that you are holding 46 - 49% in cash.. Any reason for holding such a big cash in hand>> this is my target for the end of this year but i have not reached it yet. and yes, there is a reason. i have changed my whole strategy from being (in my opinion) widely diversified with 18-20 positions yielding an average of less than 9% percent to half a dozen HY positions only and the rest in cash as AAA pays only a fraction more. whether i sit on this cash or take a part to explore new investment avenues is still an open question.


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