Click Here for Main Forum Menu Emerging Markets  
MAIN
MENU POST REPLY EDIT PROFILE MEMBERS AREA REGISTER HELP
Other Forums:
What's New
Bond Discussions
Newslink
Please Visit Our Sponsor * Click Here!

Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, June 13, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Fiscal Madness 06-13-03 (newsday.com) It would be nice if we could have it all. Who doesn't want big tax cuts, a generous Medicare prescription drug benefit and a shrinking federal deficit? But real life comes with real consequences, demanding hard choices. Taxpayers can't have all those things. There isn't enough money. Delivering both big, multi-year tax cuts and meaningful drug coverage would plunge the federal government deeper into the red, when it is already running record deficits. That's fiscal madness.
*Culture of consumption 06-13-03 (csmonitor.com) Mark Brown wishes his clients would think more about the future. But when deciding whether to buy a new Chevy truck or to set aside $300 a month for retirement, they more often opt for a pickup over peace of mind. Mr. Brown, owner of the Brown Insurance Agency in Biddeford, Maine, says even people in this blue-collar town, who have struggled to make ends meet for most of the past century, have little instinct to save.
*Fed Report Hints at Small Signs of Economic Recovery 06-13-03 (npr.org) The Federal Reserve says business and consumer confidence has risen slightly since the war in Iraq, particularly in Kansas City, Dallas, New York and Minneapolis. But it also warns that much of the country is still struggling with "sluggish, subpar or subdued" economic growth. The Fed will use the data from its survey of economic conditions when it sets interest rates in late June. Hear NPR's Scott Horsley.
*Delaware Tax Loophole 06-13-03 (npr.org) For decades, Delaware has been a tax haven for businesses. Many firms pay next to nothing in state taxes simply by registering key subsidiaries there. But now the system is under attack by states facing budget deficits. NPR's Allison Aubrey reports.
*Producer Prices Fell 0.3 Percent in May 06-13-03 (Yahoo) "The producer price index came in a little below expectations but it really wasn't that surprising," said economist Mark Vitner of Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. The overall PPI drop was just a bit steeper than the 0.2 percent decline projected by private economists and the "core" measure matched forecasts
*Trade Deficit Declines Slightly in April 06-13-03 (Yahoo) But even with the small improvement, America's trade deficit through the first four months of this year is running at an annual rate of $491 billion, far above last year's record deficit of $418 billion. Bush administration critics point to the soaring trade deficit as evidence that the president's policies of pursuing free trade deals as a way to boost America's global competitiveness is not working. The critics say a flood of imports has cost millions of lost American manufacturing jobs.
*Claims, Sales Data Show Tepid Recovery 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The overall sales figure was held down by a 4.3 percent slide in gasoline station receipts as fuel prices tumbled. Excluding the gasoline component, retail sales gained 0.4 percent. "Consumers are still buying, but they're hardly shopping 'til they drop," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.

 LATIN AMERICA
*TotalFinaElfs Venezuela Gas Project To Start End Of Year 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The $129 million first stage of the project should see output of 100 million cubic feet per day of non-decarbonized gas by then, Philippe Guys, director general at YPergas, which runs the operation, said in a presentation to journalists. Refinements, including the contruction of decarbonization facilities, will continue until 2007 when the $474 million second stage will begin, Guys said. TotalFinaElf has 69.5% of the 2 billion cubic foot concession, while Repsol has 15%. Two Venezuelan companies, Inepetrol and Otepi, have 10.2% and 5.3% respectively.
*Argentinas President Moves To Tighten Grip On Government Entities 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The moves come three weeks after Kirchner took over as president, following a campaign during which he promised to come down hard on political patronage and corruption. On Wednesday, four directors from the bank's eight-member board offered their resignation. That comes after the government appointed a new president of the bank last week and three board members resigned. Banco de la Nacion is Argentina's largest bank in terms of branches and deposits.
*IMF Announces Koehler To Visit Argentina June 23-24 06-13-03 (Yahoo) IMF Director of External Affairs Thomas Dawson told reporters Thursday that while he doesn't have a firm date, the program is "on track to be discussed by the board." "I anticipate it will be before the end of June," he said during a regular briefing. While the IMF's executive board must sign off before credit programs are formally approved, in practice, IMF management doesn't present issues for consideration unless they are sure to be agreed. In January, the IMF and Argentina signed an agreement that extends credit on about $6.8 billion worth of loans coming due through August. The second review of this agreement had been scheduled for completion in May, but has been delayed in part because of country's presidential election, and in part because of disagreements over policy.
*Mexican Court to Extradite Alleged Argentine Torturer 06-13-03 (Yahoo) Cavallo is accused of abducting, torturing, murdering and "disappearing" dozens of people during Argentina's 1976-1983 dictatorship. The Supreme Court ruling was hailed by rights groups as a landmark decision in international law. After he is extradited, Cavallo will thus become the first Latin American military officer prosecuted by a judge in a third country, after being arrested in a country where he had no legal problems.
*Argentine Leader Wants Court Investigated 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The new president has accused the high court of using its rulings to fight off a series of investigations into accusations of graft among the justices. In October 2002, lawmakers voted to drop impeachment hearings against the justices under intense pressure from the government of then-president Eduardo Duhalde. Late Wednesday, Kirchner went on national television to exhort Congress to speed up an investigation into the corruption accusations, singling out Supreme Court President Julio Nazareno.
*Venezuelan Oil Workers Get Boost in Court 06-13-03 (Yahoo) Labor Minister Maria Iglesias rejected the ruling and said the government would not rehire some 18,000 employees it has fired at the state-run oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA. "There is no turning back in regard to these firings," Iglesias told the state-run television channel. "A firing freeze for those (workers) has no value." The labor law in question had protected workers from being fired during the period when they were forming their union.
*Venezuela Lawmakers Hold Session in Park 06-13-03 (Yahoo) The lawmakers, gathering in tents in a poor neighborhood of hard-core Chavez supporters, adopted new debate rules intended to make it more difficult to block legislation supported by the president. Opposition members of Congress said they did not recognize the legitimacy of the vote. The bickering boded more turmoil for Venezuela, a major oil exporter to the United States convulsed by a brief coup in 2002 and a ruinous general strike earlier this year. It threatened to further delay efforts in Congress to choose election officials who would run a possible referendum on Chavez's presidency.

 OIL PRICES
*Natural Gas Shortage Could Hurt Economy, Greenspan Tells House 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices," Greenspan told the House Energy Committee. Natural gas fetched about $2 per million British thermal units, a standard unit measure, through most of the 1990s. That price helped drive industrial demand up, especially among steel makers, chemical companies and fertilizer firms. Many converted their plants to natural gas.
*OPEC Holds Output, Meets Again in 7 Weeks 06-12-03 (Yahoo) Ministers left supply quotas unchanged and called for improved adherence with individual allocations under combined limits of 25.4 million barrels daily. Steamy world oil prices gave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries the breathing space to wait to make its first cutbacks since the end of 2001.
*Oil Jumps as U.S. Fuel Stocks Fall 06-12-03 (Yahoo) U.S. light crude in New York was up 63 cents at $32.36 a barrel, hitting a peak of $32.50, the highest level in 12 weeks and nearly 35 percent above last year. In London, benchmark Brent crude was 31 cents higher at $28.39 a barrel.
*OPEC maintains production ceiling, demands quota compliance 06-12-03 (Yahoo) "We agreed in April that the ceiling is 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1 and today we reconfirmed this agreement. We hope there will be no overproduction (above quotas) during this period," until July 31, he told reporters Wednesday, at the end of an extraordinary meeting of the cartel in Qatar. In a statement released at the end of the meeting, OPEC said: "Stability had been maintained in the market following the decision taken by the (OPEC) conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 million bpd, with prices remaining within agreed levels.
 
Older RepliesNewer Replies Replies start here:
Newest messages appear on top.


06-13-03  wally: <The notion of a <maximum haircut 35 %> is wishful thinking. The market will take any s..t, and Taylor-Krueger will make sure that non-swappers find the US courts closed for their claims> bingo <amateur>! that is exactly what i am preaching since quite some time.

06-13-03  PILLZ: Conseco Reaches an Agreement in Principle with Creditors to Provide Acceptance of Amended Plan of Reorganization http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030613/1352...

06-13-03  PILLZ: Fleming Announces Key Strategic Initiatives http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030613/...

06-13-03  PILLZ: <XO sweetens Global Crossing offer Carl Icahn renewed his efforts to acquire Global Crossing Ltd.’s network late Thursday afternoon, when his XO Communications Inc. improved its bid for the bankrupt telecom. In addition to its previous offer to acquire the Global Crossing for a package of cash and securities that the bidder valued at $700 million, XO on Thursday launched an "any and all" tender offer to purchase Global Crossing’s $2.25 billion of senior secured bank debt at 21 cents on the dollar, for a total value of $472.5 million.

XO said the bid is not subject to due diligence or financing but would require termination of the acquisition of a majority stake by Singapore Technologies Telemedia Pte Ltd. The acquisition has already been approved by Global Crossing's creditors and the bankruptcy court.

Sources have described the ST Telemedia bid as legally binding, though Global Crossing will have to return to bankruptcy court to have its exclusive period to negotiate a reorganization plan extended.

The move is reminiscent of Icahn's bid to take control of XO during the company's bankruptcy case, when he made a successful tender offer for bank debt.

In a press release, XO said that because some had "questioned the 'value'" of its previous offer, it would make an alternate $700 million cash stalking-horse bid to acquire all of Global Crossing’s assets through a bankruptcy auction that would be subject to higher bids from other parties.

Global Crossing declined to comment. Representatives for Global Crossing’s lenders, unsecured creditors committee and ST Telemedia could not be reached late Thursday, June 12.

"This is serious," said Igor Volshteyn of Tejas Securities Group Inc., who did not consider Icahn’s first offer a legitimate threat to ST Telemedia's court- and creditor-approved offer.

Under Global Crossing’s reorganization plan, the banks gets $305 million in cash and $175 million in new bonds plus a small amount of equity, roughly equal to the cash that Icahn has put on the table. Global Crossing’s bondholders could theoretically improve their recoveries under the deal, Volshteyn said.

“The one big question mark is what liabilities get assumed,” the analyst said, noting that if XO rejected a great deal of Global Crossing's service obligations, the pool of unsecured claims could be diluted.

There are other considerations. Icahn’s new bid provides the unsecureds no equity, and therefore no upside if the company’s fortunes improve. The debtor and creditors would also have to go through another auction and another regulatory review.

The Committee for Foreign Investment in the U.S. resumed its review of the Global Crossing buyout recently, according to sources.

A joint bid by Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. and ST Telemdia had stalled before the committee, because of concerns that some members had about a company based in a Communist country taking control of the network. But many observers expect that the committee's concerns will be satisfied by Hutchison's decision to walk away from the transaction in late April.

Earlier this week, the committee’s special counsel at Greenberg Traurig LLP sent a letter to CFIUS in support of the ST Telemedia bid.

"The process is set up to make it hard to unwind confirmation once it's happened," said David Skeel of the University of Pennsylvania Law School. "Typically the fighting occurs before confirmation. One thing that makes this different are the regulatory complications.">


06-13-03  Amateur: Amigo, Fox, further thoughts on Argentina :

The notion of a <maximum haircut 35 %> is wishful thinking. The market will take any s..t, and Taylor-Krueger will make sure that non-swappers find the US courts closed for their claims.

If the haircut is the difference between the nominal principal+accrued interest versus the initial market value of the new bonds, I doubt it ca be less than 60%. Look at URU. If the Uru 2033 would carry libor capped, it would be worth 40 to 45%. Add something for the lower quality of the debtor and you have the picture.

Even Italian and German governments will not fight hard in defense of their bondholder citizen. Schroeder & Co. are happy that the suckers learn that their money should better be employed in financing their own governments....


06-13-03  wally: even though i am sitting on 100% capital gains plus accrued i will not sell till the majority of colores start the old sing-song <Guanita12 soon at par> and discuss the possiblity of Gutierrez issuing new bonds to redeem the old ones.

06-13-03  carib: Guano 12 ask 91...

06-13-03  carib: Amigo: I guess Fox comment was referring to Arg sov. For the bonds issued by banks, look to Banco rio or the restructuring of Galicia Uruguay for guidance.: longer duration, lower coupon....no haircut or minimal haircut. Of course, not all banks are the same. Galicia bonds that I bought for 24 are now bid @40, or higher.

06-13-03  Amateur: Amigo, Fox: Argentine defaulted bond prices are distorted because of the high value of the <current> bonds.

<how much> overvalued are current bonds? Boden 12 for example, ballon principal and flat libor, trades at 60%, ytm 11% (asuming swap rates). This is very expensive compared to yields of Uru and Braz., performing countries governed by average politicians. A performing bond of an otherwise non performing country, governed by mafia attorneys, should not be even considered at less than 20%.

<why> the overvaluation? Argentines are full of cash and dont know how to invest it. Falling dollar/peso cause fallling domesrtic rates. The banks hold large part of the Bodens and cannot sell or they have to book the loos (In the meantime they are carrying bonds at face value). The trade surplus exceeds domestic savings demand. Memories are short and so are some brains. Etc. Etc. All temporary phenomena, IMHO.

The market hopes the now performing bonds will not be haircutted again. This is possible but not granted.

The new bonds to be exchenged at par for the defaulted will be <worse> than the Boden. Imagine a 2034 ballon, with libor capped at 3%. Would it have a PV much above 25%?

Bank bonds may be worth more than the sovereign, on PV terms, because they will restructure on better terms. But the banks solvency will in the end depend on the sovereign, because they are stuffed with sovereigh bonds...


06-13-03  amigo latino: Fox, thanks for your comments about Argy bank bond prices.

(I was under the impression that you are still angry with me for calling the <Argy politicians> scam masters long long time ago. …..remember! Have you noticed that I stopped completely using the terms “ladrones”, “ladronia”, “scam masters” etc. not to hurt any Argentinian sensibilities. Also I never bought any Argy securities before default. So I do not have any reason to be angry with Argy!) :-)))))


06-13-03  wally: <savo <highlighting their daily imbecility and the deshonesty of the <anals> that sold their integrity to the trading desks is part of my <mission> in this world!>> you are playing a dangerous game and i don't like it! what if they read you and change their attitude? then who is left to be used as contrarian indicators?

just <cheetah> and <MoneyPenny>.


06-13-03  carib: Ven 27 ask 78...Cheetah's top is now covering the missing bottom. Buying Ven 27 was a good idea...but why spoiling it by shorting Brasil?

06-13-03  Fox: <Veni27...77.5-78... good luck <Barrionuevo>!> Que mal bicho sos!!!!

06-13-03  Fox: < amigo latino: The defaulted bond prices of banks in Argentina –selling near 35-40:....Are they overpriced in view of?...Please comment.>

Let me see if this helps!

Total Argy Debt: USD 176.000 billion.

Multis: USD 35.000 billion.

Defaulted: USD 74.000 billion.

Current: USD 67.000 billion.

Forget for a moment what <Ladronia> is saying in the news.

What is a sensible restructuring that investors may accept?

Haircut 35% max.

Type of Bonds: Discount with the 35% discount 6% coupon 15 to 20 year maturity.

Par Bond (no haircut) 30 year maturity step-up coupons going from 2% to 6%. May have some sort of economic performance sweetener.

Grace Period: anything from 3 to 5 years.

What is the real <Argy Country Risk> ?

The 5000bps JP calculates in the EMBI? May be not?

Look @ the Boden 2012 (local Bond with greatest liquidity) its yield is about 12.5% with a 5 yr duration. Meaning a 1050 SOT.

In a way we are in a similar situation when the Prins had a SOT much greater than the Pinche28.


06-13-03  savonarola: Veni27...77.5-78... good luck <Barrionuevo>!

06-13-03  savonarola: victor..you are teasing me?..

Of course I am happy that <monkeys> are <monkeys>... However, highlighting their daily imbecility and the deshonesty of the <anals> that sold their integrity to the trading desks is part of my <mission> in this world! .-))


06-13-03  wally: <i am very grateful to these emb analysts> me too! in fact we should pay them bonuses to keep up the good work.

06-13-03  SPAL: <<Stock pickers will make a bundle>> ... so keep those probes coming el zorro!!

06-13-03  Fox: <Cheers to all analysts. And keep up the good work.>

:-))


06-13-03  Fox: <It is a stock pickers market.> Absolutely!!!!! The problem that this market is for <alternative investment> community not the general broad public & fiduciary entities that have an <Index Investing> policy. Stock pickers will make a bundle meanwhile Indexes may be trashing. ;-))

06-13-03  victorn: savo, <Could sombody tell this group of <imbeciles> that EM Mkts will favour from a world economy recovery and that the end result is impossible to predict.>, unlike you, i am very grateful to these emb analysts. They allow certain opportunities to develop, which i have been able to take advantage of. They deserve my utmost respect. I am also very grateful that we don't have thousands of savos running around, as that would make my life velly velly difficult, as pilly would say, in finding opportunities. Cheers to all analysts. And keep up the good work.

06-13-03  SPAL: < here too we are in a process of <Balance Sheet Repair> no significant capital spending for a long time > the irony is that it is worth borrowing to invest in some of these situations. Capex outlook for 2003-4 will not increase in epic proportions, but will be stronger than expected.

Fox - I'd also add that there has been and still is a bit of reverse irrational exuberance happening ... certainly the recovery so far in selected tech stocks has been entirely appropriate as they were oversold ... we are now moving into a more final stage of separating out the long term winners from those that have hang in by the skin of their teeth ... the latter are or have been consolidated at very interesting [usually goodwill free] prices. It is a stock pickers market.


06-13-03  Fox: <Am I wrong if I would say that the latest <monkeyness> is the following: 1) Sell emerging markets if stocks go up (<monkeys'> rationale being that if stocks do well, then the economy is doing or will do well, then interest rates will go up and bonds down).

2) Buy them if the oposite happens.

Could sombody tell this group of <imbeciles> that EM Mkts will favour from a world economy recovery and that the end result is impossible to predict.> Myyy are we inspired today!!!!>

Well your <monkeys> are wrong as usual.

Why?

1) <Stocks> There is not going to be a broad market rally here. You are going to see <Spal> stocks doing well mainly because of <Balance sheet repair> & CEO covering their Culitos raising dividends. Not only do <Monkeys> think that if stocks go up rates will go up, they also think that if stocks go up liquidity in EM markets will be directed to stocks in the US. So they are wrong on both accounts.

2)Yes you are right they think that.

Now why they miss to understand?

Like it or not the risks of <Deflation> are real. Will it acutally happen? Dont know!

What do we know?

<Fed & ECB> will fight <Deflation> with <Reflation> will they win dont know? But on the meantime all <Reflationary> trades will make money:TIPS, Currencies, Commodities, EM Bonds & EM Equities.

Liquidity most <monkeys> think it is temporary phenomenom they are wrong! we are in a secular trend. Equity bubble killed savings rate in the US, affecting 401k & Private Pension Funds, here too we are in a process of <Balance Sheet Repair> no significant capital spending for a long time Savo, but a lot of monies going to Bonds & reflation trades.

Economies in the centre are trying to survive will not do outstanding for a ling period of time.


06-13-03  SPAL: < 06-13-03 PaxWax: SBA ~ <SPALcito>, if the shares have risen by 1000% and the bonds only have doubled, for us latecomers is there any interest in buying some bonds? Really sorry to have missed out on the shares, but I was otherwise engaged. Perhaps <Pilly> or others could comment, too. > You'll have to pay atleast par for the 12's and in the low 90's and rising for the 10's. They are CCC rated by S&P ... BUT AAA+ by SPAL. High yielders, but now limited in capital gains ... I think you missed this boat also ... I know Pilly can do better.

06-13-03  wally: rf30 <101.000 101.120>

06-13-03  savonarola: Thanks <amigo> .. the last thing <Barclays Barrionuevo> and <MLynch> wanted to hear!

We.... delighted!


06-13-03  amigo latino: <Ecuador y el Club de París lograron acuerdo sobre renegociación de la deuda

.......... Los acreedores del Club de París cerraron un acuerdo con el Gobierno ecuatoriano que consolida cerca de 81 millones de dólares de vencimientos debidos a los acreedores bilaterales oficiales y que vencían entre el 1 de marzo de 2003 y el 31 de marzo de 2004,...

El Club de París agregó que la renegociación acordada también "recortará el servicio de la deuda debido a los acreedores" de la entidad durante dicho periodo que se reducirá a 272 millones de dólares.......

La renegociación se hará según los términos de Houston", explicó el organismo, o sea que "los créditos comerciales serán renegociados según un perfil progresivo de 18 años, de los cuales tres de gracia, con una tasa adecuada al mercado".......

Los créditos de Ayuda Pública al Desarrollo serán renegociados durante 20 años, con diez de gracia, con una tasa al menos tan favorable como las concedidas en los créditos iniciales", detalló el comunicado........>

http://www.eluniverso.com/core/elun...


06-13-03  savonarola: Am I wrong if I would say that the latest <monkeyness> is the following:

1) Sell emerging markets if stocks go up (<monkeys'> rationale being that if stocks do well, then the economy is doing or will do well, then interest rates will go up and bonds down).

2) Buy them if the oposite happens.

Could sombody tell this group of <imbeciles> that EM Mkts will favour from a world economy recovery and that the end result is impossible to predict.


06-13-03  danni: panasonic: <Savo> <Danni> yes, ML and OldBarrio placed BUY rec. on this one, ...and <dr. Guru>

06-13-03  savonarola: carib...<Br 30 ask 113,375>

BN seems to have a daily problem with Bra 30. The market is 110.25-111.25 as of now.

20s are 113-114


06-13-03  panasonic: <Savo> <Danni> yes, ML and OldBarrio placed BUY rec. on this one, according to their sources once North Korea problem is solved, it should hike!

http://quotes.ubs.com/quotes/X0=10/...


06-13-03  ElGrande: But Savo, Barrioviejo works in the mysterious wholesale market where winners are losers and losers are winners


Older RepliesNewer Replies
Index of older articles by date
*NEW* Historical archive from 1998-1999


Please Visit Our Sponsor * Click Here!

Please read our disclaimer.

Home Page | BradyNet Pro | Search | CyberExchange
Forfaiting | Closing Prices | Live Prices | New Issues | Ratings
BradyNet Tour | BradyNet FORUMs | BradyNet Email Directory | Index (Site Map)
Analysis & Research | BradyNet Center | News | Jobs

General Correspondence: bradynet@bradynet.com    Questions/Problems? support@bradynet.com
Mail this page to a friend

This site copyright © 1995-2000 BradyNet.com