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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, June 20, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Mass. workers need help with cost of living 06-20-03 (boston.com) A new MassINC report, ''The Pursuit of Happiness: A Survey on the Quality of Life in Massachusetts,'' reveals that families are finding it increasingly tough to make ends meet - so much so that an alarming one-quarter of longtime residents and one-third of newcomers say they would leave the state if they could. Based on a survey of more than 1,000 residents conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, the report points to an increasingly fragile American dream in Massachusetts. For a third of those surveyed, the past five years have made achieving the kind of life they want in Massachusetts more of a challenge. Many report living close to the financial edge. Forty percent view their financial situation as either fair or poor. An overwhelming 74 percent see the state's high cost of living as at least somewhat of a problem for them. Financial stress pervades households on every rung of the economic ladder, including those with college degrees and those earning between $60,000 and $100,000. While the roots of this stress may be individual, there is consensus on how to improve quality of life. Housing affordability tops the list. Fifty-four percent believe the cost of housing is a major problem. Young people and those new to the state see our overheated housing market as an impediment to making it in Massachusetts.
*Scorning the working poor, too 06-20-03 (boston.com) Not that long ago, scorn and its handmaidens - disdain and neglect - were pretty much reserved for the welfare poor. The working poor, by comparison, were publicly praised as Americans who ''played by the rules.'' They were folks who warranted a helping hand. But now the rules have officially changed. The line between the deserving and the undeserving poor has moved up a couple of notches on the socio-economic scale. You can now be unworthy even if you're employed. Indeed, by some accounts Americans become deserving - of political attention, that is - only when their wages rise enough to make them eligible for income taxes and therefore income tax cuts. The two leading indicators of the upscaling of scorn were the fates of two tax cuts meant to help low-income families: the child tax credit and marriage penalty relief. The child tax credit debacle began weeks ago when Republicans expanded the credit for middle and well-off families - and deliberately denied it to 6.5 million working poor families. This shouldn't have been a surprise coming from a party that gave $93,500 in tax cuts to million-a-year families.
*Remembering a time when we had interest rates 06-20-03 (nwsource.com) Interest rates on my mind, I called Jim Grant. From his perch on Wall Street, Grant has written several histories of finance. He writes a column on interest rates for Forbes and publishes Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Interest rates are his business. My question to Grant: "What's with these interest rates?" "We don't have them anymore," he said. Indeed. I have been a customer of a certain money-market fund since 1979. I remember when the fund paid 14 percent. Perhaps that was excessive, though it didn't seem so at the time. But 0.96 percent? Give me a break! After taxes and inflation, it is less than nothing. My saved wages dribble away like antifreeze from a rusty radiator.
*Lawmakers Squabble Over Workers Benefits 06-20-03 (Yahoo) House lawmakers searching for ways to help millions of uninsured Americans squabbled Thursday over whether a new program that assists laid-off workers with health insurance costs is already being undermined. A provision in a taxpayer rights bill, passed Thursday, was intended to help those workers buy insurance even if their state did not make the August 1 deadline for meeting the program's standards. But lawmakers disagreed over how much help the bill really offered — Republicans said it would help 12,000 more people get health insurance; Democrats said it would deprive displaced workers of essential consumer protections.
*Evidence grows of US postwar economy rebound 06-20-03 (Yahoo) "The leading economic index finally points to a recovery, almost a year and a half after the end of the recession," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. "But the dangers present in the first five months of the year have not disappeared completely. Chief among them is a lack of business confidence," he said in a report. Much of the corporate gloom was linked to a lack of pricing power, limiting companies' ability to make a profit, Goldstein said.
*US weekly jobless claims tumble 13,000 06-20-03 (Yahoo) The decline in claims for the week ended June 14 was roughly in line with Wall Street economists' expectations. "The direction is good, the level is terrible," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "The claims are simply too high to indicate that there is any strength in the labor market." A four-week average of initial jobless claims eased 3,000 to 432,000. In raw, unadjusted figures, the number of new jobless benefit claims slumped 42,410 to 378,114 in the week. There were 356,096 claims in the comparable week of 2002.
*Is bargain aisle also deflation alley? 06-20-03 (csmonitor.com) Retiree Herb Tamres considers himself a "careful" shopper. He waits for sales. He remembers what he's paid for his groceries in prior weeks. So, as he walks out of a Stop & Shop in Oyster Bay, N.Y., he's pleased that he's got a pound of ham and cheese that were on sale. "When I shop, I want to know what are the specials," says the Mill Neck resident.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Lulas Pragmatic Approach Helps Brazil Find Balance 06-20-03 (Washington Post) As a presidential candidate, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was as quixotic as they come, a former steelworker who promised changes and new support for Brazil's working class. Foreign lenders and investors thought they would have problems in dealing with him. Hunger, poverty and jobs would be his government's priorities. His critics thought his election last November made for good, populist theater, but they feared his government would be a flop. They feared a default on the $260 billion national debt, plummeting currency, rising inflation and a new round of capital flight.

 ASIA
*Hostage, 3 Kidnappers Die in Philippines 06-20-03 (Yahoo) Kidnappers fatally shot a 60-year-old hostage after encountering police at a checkpoint, triggering a gunbattle in which three gang members died and another was captured, police said Thursday. The incident Tuesday in the northern city of Tarlac came hours after kidnappers seized Leticia Tan, 60, in suburban Paranaque, said national police chief Hermogenes Ebdane. The group rammed through one road block in Tarlac, injuring an officer, and then fired at police as they abandoned their vehicles ahead of another checkpoint, Ebdane said. The gunfight ensued.

 OIL PRICES
*Oil Slides Below $30 a Barrel 06-20-03 (Yahoo) In New York, light crude shed 40 cents to $29.96 a barrel, its fifth losing session in the last six, which have pulled prices down more than $2.50 a barrel from last week's three-month highs. London benchmark Brent fell 11 cents by to $26.15 a barrel. U.S. government data on Wednesday showed that near-record imports had boosted U.S. crude stockpiles by 3.9 million barrels last week, cutting the stock deficit from last year's levels to just over 10 percent. Low U.S. crude stocks have helped push oil prices nearly 20 percent above last year to levels that threaten to undermine already weak economic growth.
*Big grant to oil firm shrouded in secrecy 06-20-03 (philly.com) Last week, after the U.S. Department of Homeland Security awarded long-awaited and highly competitive grants for port security projects, many in the maritime trade were baffled by the windfall for Citgo Petroleum Corp. The odds of anyone's getting a grant were no better than one in five. Even then, most of the winners were awarded less than $1 million. But Citgo, the profitable U.S. subsidiary of the Venezuelan national oil company, hit the jackpot: a $13.5 million grant to upgrade security at its refinery in Lake Charles, La.
*Iraqs first oil exports due 06-20-03 (BBC) A ceremony is scheduled to mark the occasion on Sunday, when the first barrels of Iraqi oil will be loaded for shipment from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Recently-appointed Iraqi oil minister Thamir Abbas Ghadhban and Phillip Carroll, the US advisor to Iraqi oil officials, are expected to attend.
*Iraqs Postwar Oil Exports to Restart 06-20-03 (Yahoo) "Exports from Ceyhan are fixed for this Sunday — we've received all the documents and the tankers are supposed to be there to lift oil early Sunday," Mohammed Al-Jibouri, the head of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization, or SOMO, told Dow Jones Newswires. Iraq's oil pipeline from the northern fields of Kirkuk to Turkey's Ceyhan will start pumping Sunday once the tankers start taking on crude, he said. The pipeline stopped pumping during the U.S.-led war on Iraq, when shipping was stopped and the Ceyhan storage tanks filled to their capacity of 8 million barrels. "Hopefully on Sunday when exports begin we will start pumping oil again," al-Jibouri said.
*Group Calls for U.S. to Reduce Oil Use 06-20-03 (Yahoo) A broad coalition of industry executives and environmentalists is calling on U.S. leaders to chart a new direction on energy policy that would cut oil use by a third and more aggressively address climate change. In a report being issued Wednesday, the coalition decries "the old foot-dragging politics" and gridlock among powerful interest groups that it says has prevented any substantive changes in U.S. energy policy for decades.
 
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06-20-03  savonarola: Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!....

<Every single time the MACD is @ an all time High & Commodity Channel Index signals overbought territory.>

You MUST have a word with <FOX>?

I am very worried!


06-20-03  amigo latino: Glutt: (may be there are some for 500$ an hour though).

cannot find good enough doctors (may be there are some for 500$ an hour though)...

<Glutt:here in Europe, cannot find good enough doctors (may be there are some for 500$ an hour though)…….>

I think that doctors charge for a visit—the rates may vary from doctor to doctor and third party payments(ex: insurance) may have different fee reimbussement schedules depending on the speciality.,

Also doctors sometimes may charge a fee depending on the procedure—a fee for endoscopy, or EKG, etc ot for surgical procedure.

So please explain <500$ an hour though)>...I am not familiar with this tyoe of fee.


06-20-03  ruspan: Pax:<Friend <Ruspan>, do you really think the West tried any harder to destabilize the Communist Bloc than the KGB and its associates (Bulgaria, DDR, etc.) did to undermine the so-called "Western Democracies"? > Maybe, if you consider that Germany is also a vestern country and it managed to destroy 30 % of USSR wealth and a good part of its population shortly before the part that you mention even started :-)

I am not for reestablishment of USSR and not looking backwards for solutions, but I don't think it will do us any good to forget and misinterpret what really have taken place in an orgy of "victor's justice" and "victor's history". Claims that only Gnoe - like society would bring justice and prosperity to everybody are plainly false and in many cases interested.

<One system of organizing society fell, as did the Franco régime. The other survived. Is this all the fault of spies and agitators?>

You seem particularily sensible about the spies and agitators, I never mentioned them . Let us recognise our part :-))))) I was an agitator in this process... And recognise my part in bringing the past desaster to the ussr and the current lawlessness to the planet.

What I am shure, is that we all became poorer as a civilization with a destruction of that place: ussr educated people are working everywhere now, creating wealth and solving problems, but the chain is partly broken and there will no more when they grew old. Billions less for science and technology, million people less working on it = the planet is a bit less civilized :-)


06-20-03  Fox: < mastery of the market> Spal @ the end of the day if we are able to put in practice all we did during our <monkey lifes> for ourselves we will do well. One thing Ive learned the hard way is that I only get involved with assets that comply with the following characteristics:

1) Good execution.

2) Technical tools (Good Graphs capabiltity)

3) Understand what Im getting in to.

4) Read the Forum thoroughly.

5) Never make an absolute bet, I always go in & out in tranches.

Give you an example. I was quite uncomfortable with my Braz40s due to the optionality of the Bond. I had decided to swap them for Braz27 or Braz24, finally decided for Braz27 because could not find the Graphs for Braz 24 in .Comdirect (learned this site with Wallito). I have learned to respects Cheetah´s market calls when he says he is <shorting> Everytime he calls a short I looked @ the Graphs. Every single time the MACD is @ an all time High & Commodity Channel Index signals overbought territory. So I listen when he is shorting.

Decided that it was time to do it! Sold my 40´s in 3 tranches, did not get 103 price but was able to average a 99.875.

Waited 24 hs & started to buy the 27s as we speak Im 80% done "Profit of the trade" bought more 27´s.

In the old <monkey> days we always went trough some sort of checklist before we made a trade. All Im doing is trying to avoid silly mistakes. But I still make the non-silly mistakes.;-))


06-20-03  Fox: <Again I am out-gunned on my own schtock picks ;-( ... first it is Carib with his timing and now you with your mastery of the market!> Not mastery Spal simple common sense. I tried to buy & sell stocks through my Bank. It was impossible due to the type of stocks I was tradign <low value> Banks´fees & correspondant fees took away all the money. Then I decided to search for a good execution on <low value> stocks, the problem was that not many good online brokers would open an account to a foreign. But finally wasa able to open CyberTrader account, I have superb graphs on anything that trades in US stock markets including some OTCs (such as IBAS. So what I do today is this: Buy stocks that have sort of long investment horizon with the bank & trade my cucarachas & <Spal> portfolio online. ;-)

06-20-03  Hase: <rich39: Hase> thanks

06-20-03  hazelnutter: btw <colores> i haev discovered my new Guru!! After following various leaders of modern economics/finance/nobel-laureates/anal-ysts/idiots/fraudsters (S Roach, D Rosenberg, K Schoenholtz, Gartman, Leme, Advice, Cheetah, NOT in respective order!!) I have come across MS's Andy Xie. Please e-mail me any colores who can get me his writings. This guy has the best grip ( if a little asia-centric) on what is going on in theworld vis a vis US, $, deflation, etc. IMVVVHO.

06-20-03  hazelnutter: <meeting over weekend or a meeting extended to vacation?> we can have 2/3 days of meetings scheduled. no one will get stomch probs, everything is nice and modern- people can holdai if they want- i know i prob will- i also have a broker to visit in Orlando.

06-20-03  Glutt: hazel <why not have the Fiji meetings Stateside?> you mean a meeting over weekend or a meeting extended to vacation? this are two big differences... Florida should be fine for me and flights are not very expensive (from your destination flights should be damn cheap as i know)

06-20-03  rich39: Hase.Guano 12 85.00/87.00 Guano 30 65.00/65.50 Bra 40 97.00/98.25

06-20-03  hazelnutter: why not have the Fiji meetings Stateside? At least its predictably reliable- in terms of internet connections, amenities, golf, etc. Florida? At Wally's old house? What can a man do in St Barth's cheetah?

06-20-03  Glutt: hase, i am not in office and surprisingly my two live access do not behave while Citi gives only yesterday's prices yet...

06-20-03  Glutt: Pax, i agree... concerning doctors in Spain, you surprised me... might be i am spoiled with having good doctors for every occassion in Moscow. i myself know someting about simple medicine so was able to catch several doctors on giving mistreatment drug-wise... unfortunately no possibility to sue them like in US...fortunately for us we never follow any prescription blindly. regarding Russian medicine... give it time and it will become worse and worse because there is nothing which can keep past achievments.

06-20-03  savonarola: <Monkeys> are facing a very complex afternoon. They are short Brazil and Guano (nobody knows why, not even themselves), following an unpredictable lady called <Beta> which changes every second and can even turn negative, and now the UST30 is actually going up. It is Friday and they have to square the books......

06-20-03  PaxWax: <Glutt> medical attention within the Spanish Social Security System is quite good... usually. Emergency attention is FREE. We have a special arrangement for the "Press" and see the best doctors in Madrid for just a few €uros. I am a cheapskate and refuse to pay ripoff doctors on my own account, although have spent quite a lot for my wife's eye operations, which have restored a lot of her sight, so it's well worthwhile. I insist that everything in Spain is pretty reasonable escept HOUSING (to buy) and HÔTELS (sadly for me).

06-20-03  PaxWax: <Glutt>, we have an expression with I believe nicely sums up the dark side of the fall of the USSR: It is <"to throw the baby out with the bathwater."> The bathwater is the Soviet system with its inherent inefficiencies and misuse of resources, and the baby is the educational system, cultural wealth, space programme, and other aspect mentioned here. We must all enormous regret that the Russian "Transition" was unable to keep up the standards of the past. In Spain we also have inherited some good and some negative aspects of the Franco years. Franco invented the Organization for the blind, social security etc but also a lot of inflexibility.

Friend <Ruspan>, do you really think the West tried any harder to destabilize the Communist Bloc than the KGB and its associates (Bulgaria, DDR, etc.) did to undermine the so-called "Western Democracies"?

One system of organizing society fell, as did the Franco régime. The other survived. Is this all the fault of spies and agitators?

BTW, I wouldn't like to see Cuba follow the Soviet system's downfall. I don't know howevr if a "soft landing" is a realistic possibility.


06-20-03  Glutt: btw, i had (have still) good contacts in medicine world of Moscow which spoiled me a lot...for this reason i still suffer here in Europe, cannot find good enough doctors (may be there are some for 500$ an hour though)... i was also told by my friends living in Europe that good European medicine is mostly a myth unless you enroll for very expensive insurance or get a family doctor. in my place even private insurance does not guarantee best doctors because most of them are interested in serving as many public insurance patients as possible and not so interested in fewer private patients. my former doctor here, who was good (best in the district with huge practice), told me notwithstanding our very good relations that he was not interested in seeing me privately and would do his best for public insurance !!! so i changed him for another…

06-20-03  Hase: current Bra40, Guano12, Guano30 b/a please

06-20-03  Glutt: <My impression of health care is that that it was quite shitty, but it's very superficial.> true and not... we had very good specialists but you had to know whom to call and where to go... besides you had to pay some little non officially plus you had to find many drugs yourself and you had not to be scared of outdated equipment whereas counting on talented healing hands... one sad thing was that for some kind of treatment it was not possible without modern equipment which was absent that times. nowadays little changed except that many talents left medicine... or are old professors now...

06-20-03  Glutt: wally <there are half a dozen islands -where good food is served- off Pattaya which can be reached by speedboat in 15-25 minutes.> however as far as i know you are not permitted to make overnight stay and many facilities you will need are absent there. last year i traveled around near by islands of Pattaya with a speed boat for the whole day and even crossed one island with local guy on some strange vehicle which was ready to disintegrate on each steep slope. Sorry to say but locals explained me there are no urlaub islands closer to Pattaya than Koh Samet … last year i did not manage to get there as i had to cancel my 3 days there because my daughter catching flu…however we met a couple who went to Koh Samet and they were very disappointed… and they also told me that Koh Chang was much better than Samet…. may be i am wrong but this is what i know

06-20-03  merugo: uru19 € 66-68 why?

06-20-03  Glutt: carib <Whan I was there last time, there were still nice islands around Krabi, or one could charter a yacht to the Similans.> hm... last year when i was booking flights travel agent suggested Krabi for me because of its untouched nature and fewer tourists... wally, anything to say?

wally, regarding St Barth vs Pattaya, i was in Pattaya and i liked it very much i admit. i was not on St Barth so cannot say anything on how these two compare.


06-20-03  Glutt: <ElGrande: Wally...why not Ko Samui or Phuket for a little change of pace... > AH !!! indeed wise words... changing places helps ... however for a colores weekend venue we would need smth more simple like Fiji 3, a bit boring and not true vacation spot but located conviniently for most of participants. otherwise many colores will disappear on the second day... was my case in Pattaya also IMVVVHO

06-20-03  Glutt: <i think the correct translation of "pat-ay-a" into english means "happy family". but of course i might be mischtoken :~)))> i fully agree Wally master, but let us lunch email polling of colores to figure out... i told my case but do not know what others think

06-20-03  Glutt: ops, sorry, this is not weekend yet...

06-20-03  Glutt: ruspan <BTW, in 1975, GDP per person in USSR was 1975$, US 3975$, FRG 3270$ Italy 1460 $. How do you explain it is 1:5 now that communism is gone?> very simple: communists commanded $=0.64 kopeks... black market was always around 3 rubels a $... now take 1975$ & divide by appr 2.3 & you have the answer. also GDP consisting of useless retail goods and non eatable farm food is not worth. sorry compatriots but we sometimes tend to overshoot in defending smth which was not. i myself lived in wonderful conditions that time compared to an average Russian and should have regreted the collapse of ussr. guess what i going to say? i will never ever regret the changes that happened... although i will always regret disappearance of ussr built science, education system and a core of health care system ... three strong things Russia should have done everything to preserve if was a bit smarter.

regarding paranoja... i saw some educated Russians being paranoid about US but i also saw some educated Russians celebrating US independence day while forgeting about Russian festives... now tell me what is worse in your opinion.


06-20-03  xanthir: Well, if you'll take a Greeks' opinion, we don't believe that contemporary philosophers have anything to do with their predecessors. It's a permanent opinion in foreign countries actually, where the only thing Greeks say (in order to support their country) is about the civilisation that existed 2000 (and more) years ago. Quite sad actually, but yes, it is true, no "empire" (cultural or other) lasts forever... And when it falls, it would be nice to built something else afterwards.

06-20-03  merugo: Someone here seems rather confused over concepts of order, wealth, social security, political ,social and economical systems. Someone draws the simplicistc equation wealth = happiness, capitalism=freedom, etc. Such puerile wiews appear far under the substantal level of intelligence and culture of the participants. E.g. the ideal of collective property debated as peculiar recent political systems has nothing new in itself, remember the first christians and the latter dolciniani ,for limiting to western culture. As for the durability of political systems, no such system survived truly intact for centuries, and their successors often claimed to be better of their predecessors, fact that under an historical point of wiew is not necessarely true... or someone is really thinking that present greek philosophers may claim to be ahead of their compatriots of more than two thousand years ago?

06-20-03  PaxWax: GOOD! I was hoping my comment on Soviet productivity and use of resources, espicifically HUMAN resources, would provoke a lively discussion. I woke up Ruspan, too! (;~))))

I stand by my comment 100%.


06-20-03  Neznaika: Carib: <1913 the level of industrial development in Russia and Italy was not much different (both were underdeveloped) Following military and technological development in Russia certainly beats italy, that never got a nuke or sent a rocket to the moon. But, 90 years later the average italian is apparently five times wealthier than the average russian> In 1913 Italy was undedeverloped by European standards, but Russia was still 85% rural, with 30% literacy rate - hardly in the same category. Besides, Romanov dynasty and old aristoratic elite was crubling and going absolutely nowhere. As for today - <five times> may be by some statistics. But GDP numbers are largely nonsense indeed. In real terms, Rome does not look visibly richer than Moscow (but it is surely warmer and has many more nice ancient ruins :-) ). And if you go south, Naples for example - forget Moscow, it looks poorer than many Russian provincial cities, my native Samara does not have nearly as many crumbling facades and broken traffic lights, or as much trash on the streets.

Don't get me wrong - I really love Italy. Among the half a dosen Euro countries that I've ever visited, it is the only place I very much like to go back to, any time. My wife and me plan to have another vacation there next spring or summer, places we missed previously - Venice, Florence, Sienna. Recently I found myself drinking more and more Italian wines, at the expense of both French and Californian - now it is probably 50% of my ration. BTW, I followed your advice to try some Sicilian wines - and I like it! Now I have an average one Sicilian a week - various vintages of Nero d'Avola, Colosi - simple, but very pleasant, fruity, some other names I don't remember.


06-20-03  carib: <June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Cuban President Fidel Castro was tricked Tuesday into taking a live four-minute phone call from two Miami disc jockeys who pretended to be Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the Miami Herald reported. Enrique Santos and Joe Ferrero, hosts of Spanish-language station El Vacilon de la Manana on WXDJ-FM, were able to reach Castro by using pieces of a tape of Chavez's voice and saying the call was an emergency, the newspaper said. They played a similar prank on Chavez in January using Castro's voice, the paper said. > Is Cheetah Enrique or Joe?


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