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Friday, June 20, '03
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 | Mass. workers need help with cost of living 06-20-03 (boston.com) A new MassINC report, ''The Pursuit of Happiness: A Survey on the Quality of Life in Massachusetts,'' reveals that families are finding it increasingly tough to make ends meet - so much so that an alarming one-quarter of longtime residents and one-third of newcomers say they would leave the state if they could. Based on a survey of more than 1,000 residents conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, the report points to an increasingly fragile American dream in Massachusetts. For a third of those surveyed, the past five years have made achieving the kind of life they want in Massachusetts more of a challenge. Many report living close to the financial edge. Forty percent view their financial situation as either fair or poor. An overwhelming 74 percent see the state's high cost of living as at least somewhat of a problem for them. Financial stress pervades households on every rung of the economic ladder, including those with college degrees and those earning between $60,000 and $100,000. While the roots of this stress may be individual, there is consensus on how to improve quality of life. Housing affordability tops the list. Fifty-four percent believe the cost of housing is a major problem. Young people and those new to the state see our overheated housing market as an impediment to making it in Massachusetts.
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 | Scorning the working poor, too 06-20-03 (boston.com) Not that long ago, scorn and its handmaidens - disdain and neglect - were pretty much reserved for the welfare poor. The working poor, by comparison, were publicly praised as Americans who ''played by the rules.'' They were folks who warranted a helping hand. But now the rules have officially changed. The line between the deserving and the undeserving poor has moved up a couple of notches on the socio-economic scale. You can now be unworthy even if you're employed. Indeed, by some accounts Americans become deserving - of political attention, that is - only when their wages rise enough to make them eligible for income taxes and therefore income tax cuts. The two leading indicators of the upscaling of scorn were the fates of two tax cuts meant to help low-income families: the child tax credit and marriage penalty relief. The child tax credit debacle began weeks ago when Republicans expanded the credit for middle and well-off families - and deliberately denied it to 6.5 million working poor families. This shouldn't have been a surprise coming from a party that gave $93,500 in tax cuts to million-a-year families.
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 | Remembering a time when we had interest rates 06-20-03 (nwsource.com) Interest rates on my mind, I called Jim Grant. From his perch on Wall Street, Grant has written several histories of finance. He writes a column on interest rates for Forbes and publishes Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Interest rates are his business. My question to Grant: "What's with these interest rates?" "We don't have them anymore," he said. Indeed. I have been a customer of a certain money-market fund since 1979. I remember when the fund paid 14 percent. Perhaps that was excessive, though it didn't seem so at the time. But 0.96 percent? Give me a break! After taxes and inflation, it is less than nothing. My saved wages dribble away like antifreeze from a rusty radiator.
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 | Lawmakers Squabble Over Workers Benefits 06-20-03 (Yahoo) House lawmakers searching for ways to help millions of uninsured Americans squabbled Thursday over whether a new program that assists laid-off workers with health insurance costs is already being undermined. A provision in a taxpayer rights bill, passed Thursday, was intended to help those workers buy insurance even if their state did not make the August 1 deadline for meeting the program's standards. But lawmakers disagreed over how much help the bill really offered — Republicans said it would help 12,000 more people get health insurance; Democrats said it would deprive displaced workers of essential consumer protections.
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 | Evidence grows of US postwar economy rebound 06-20-03 (Yahoo) "The leading economic index finally points to a recovery, almost a year and a half after the end of the recession," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. "But the dangers present in the first five months of the year have not disappeared completely. Chief among them is a lack of business confidence," he said in a report. Much of the corporate gloom was linked to a lack of pricing power, limiting companies' ability to make a profit, Goldstein said.
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 | US weekly jobless claims tumble 13,000 06-20-03 (Yahoo) The decline in claims for the week ended June 14 was roughly in line with Wall Street economists' expectations. "The direction is good, the level is terrible," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "The claims are simply too high to indicate that there is any strength in the labor market." A four-week average of initial jobless claims eased 3,000 to 432,000. In raw, unadjusted figures, the number of new jobless benefit claims slumped 42,410 to 378,114 in the week. There were 356,096 claims in the comparable week of 2002.
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 | Is bargain aisle also deflation alley? 06-20-03 (csmonitor.com) Retiree Herb Tamres considers himself a "careful" shopper. He waits for sales. He remembers what he's paid for his groceries in prior weeks. So, as he walks out of a Stop & Shop in Oyster Bay, N.Y., he's pleased that he's got a pound of ham and cheese that were on sale. "When I shop, I want to know what are the specials," says the Mill Neck resident.
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 | Lulas Pragmatic Approach Helps Brazil Find Balance 06-20-03 (Washington Post) As a presidential candidate, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was as quixotic as they come, a former steelworker who promised changes and new support for Brazil's working class. Foreign lenders and investors thought they would have problems in dealing with him. Hunger, poverty and jobs would be his government's priorities. His critics thought his election last November made for good, populist theater, but they feared his government would be a flop. They feared a default on the $260 billion national debt, plummeting currency, rising inflation and a new round of capital flight.
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 | Hostage, 3 Kidnappers Die in Philippines 06-20-03 (Yahoo) Kidnappers fatally shot a 60-year-old hostage after encountering police at a checkpoint, triggering a gunbattle in which three gang members died and another was captured, police said Thursday. The incident Tuesday in the northern city of Tarlac came hours after kidnappers seized Leticia Tan, 60, in suburban Paranaque, said national police chief Hermogenes Ebdane. The group rammed through one road block in Tarlac, injuring an officer, and then fired at police as they abandoned their vehicles ahead of another checkpoint, Ebdane said. The gunfight ensued.
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 | Oil Slides Below $30 a Barrel 06-20-03 (Yahoo) In New York, light crude shed 40 cents to $29.96 a barrel, its fifth losing session in the last six, which have pulled prices down more than $2.50 a barrel from last week's three-month highs. London benchmark Brent fell 11 cents by to $26.15 a barrel. U.S. government data on Wednesday showed that near-record imports had boosted U.S. crude stockpiles by 3.9 million barrels last week, cutting the stock deficit from last year's levels to just over 10 percent. Low U.S. crude stocks have helped push oil prices nearly 20 percent above last year to levels that threaten to undermine already weak economic growth.
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 | Big grant to oil firm shrouded in secrecy 06-20-03 (philly.com) Last week, after the U.S. Department of Homeland Security awarded long-awaited and highly competitive grants for port security projects, many in the maritime trade were baffled by the windfall for Citgo Petroleum Corp. The odds of anyone's getting a grant were no better than one in five. Even then, most of the winners were awarded less than $1 million. But Citgo, the profitable U.S. subsidiary of the Venezuelan national oil company, hit the jackpot: a $13.5 million grant to upgrade security at its refinery in Lake Charles, La.
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 | Iraqs first oil exports due 06-20-03 (BBC) A ceremony is scheduled to mark the occasion on Sunday, when the first barrels of Iraqi oil will be loaded for shipment from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Recently-appointed Iraqi oil minister Thamir Abbas Ghadhban and Phillip Carroll, the US advisor to Iraqi oil officials, are expected to attend.
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 | Iraqs Postwar Oil Exports to Restart 06-20-03 (Yahoo) "Exports from Ceyhan are fixed for this Sunday — we've received all the documents and the tankers are supposed to be there to lift oil early Sunday," Mohammed Al-Jibouri, the head of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization, or SOMO, told Dow Jones Newswires. Iraq's oil pipeline from the northern fields of Kirkuk to Turkey's Ceyhan will start pumping Sunday once the tankers start taking on crude, he said. The pipeline stopped pumping during the U.S.-led war on Iraq, when shipping was stopped and the Ceyhan storage tanks filled to their capacity of 8 million barrels. "Hopefully on Sunday when exports begin we will start pumping oil again," al-Jibouri said.
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 | Group Calls for U.S. to Reduce Oil Use 06-20-03 (Yahoo) A broad coalition of industry executives and environmentalists is calling on U.S. leaders to chart a new direction on energy policy that would cut oil use by a third and more aggressively address climate change. In a report being issued Wednesday, the coalition decries "the old foot-dragging politics" and gridlock among powerful interest groups that it says has prevented any substantive changes in U.S. energy policy for decades.
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Newest messages appear on top.
06-20-03
carib:
O presidente dos Estados Unidos, George W. Bush, afirmou hoje em um breve pronunciamento durante reunião com Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva que a relação entre os dois países "é vital, importante e crescente"."O Brasil é uma parte incrivelmente importante de uma América do Norte e América do Sul pacíficas e prósperas. Afirmo que, da perspectiva dos Estados Unidos, esta relação é vital, importante e crescente", disse Bush.
Sorridente, Lula, por sua vez, disse que "a relação entre Estados Unidos e Brasil poderá surpreender o mundo".
A reunião entre os chefes de Estado deve durar três horas no Salão Oval da Casa Branca e incluirá um encontro ampliado com ministros dos dois países, seguido de almoço.
06-20-03
carib:
Savo: no, it's a FOX- share. Fox was making the point that it's difficult to play Asia (and China in particular) with Bonds
06-20-03
savonarola:
carib..what is <petro-china>? .. is it a bond?
06-20-03
carib:
<120.000 tourists in season> why on earth join such a large crowd?
06-20-03
carib:
Cryptic posting: " Will Camuzzi follow Widjaja?"
06-20-03
SPAL:
IBAS ... boosters engaged
1.44 up 31 cents
;-)
06-20-03
wally:
<carib: <lumpenstrudel> "deflating"....> we have to consult <pax> on his <pendulum theory>!
06-20-03
wally:
<Where have all the tourists gone?> traditionally the tourists like beaches AND SUN. traditionally june, july, august are the low (rainy)season months in Pattaya when traditional visitors enjoy that the city has a mere 20.000 tourists visiting instead of 100-120.000 tourists during the high season. besides, the story of the muslims from the south planning attacks is as old as the terrorist attack in Bali.
06-20-03
SPAL:
through = threw [I'm only semi-literate!]
06-20-03
carib:
<Petro-China> moving up, slowly slowly...
06-20-03
SPAL:
< 06-20-03 carib: <lumpenstrudel> "deflating".... > yes even I through whatever Euro shares I had overboard 2 days ago ...
06-20-03
amigo latino:
<Few APP Bondholders ExpectThey Can Block Debt WorkoutJAKARTA, Indonesia -- Creditors of Asia Pulp & Paper Co. might not like the company's latest offer to restructure its mountain of debt, but few of APP's bondholders feel there is much they can do to block the plan from going through.
... The company signed a preliminary deal last week with some of its largest creditors, …..
But the company continues to face a serious problem: how to win over the hundreds of commercial banks, pension funds and other bondholders who weren't involved in the recent talks and together hold about 60% of the debt covered by the Indonesian deal. Many of them strongly dislike the arrangement, …
…Under the terms signed last week, APP would fully repay only one tranche of the debt incurred by its Indonesian subsidiaries, valued at $1.2 billion, over a period of 10 years. The rest of the $6.7 billion would be refinanced or exchanged for convertible bonds.
Some creditors said they have little hope that much of the second and third tranches would be repaid because the unusual terms of the deal make it difficult for creditors to seize the company if it defaults again.
But Mr. Rauch of Gramercy said many other creditors believe that they will have no alternative but to accept APP's restructuring terms. That's because they think the Widjaja family already has bought up enough debt in the open market to ensure that there will be enough support for the deal to allow an Indonesian court to impose it on all creditors. …...
.http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB...
06-20-03
carib:
<sea urchins> 35
06-20-03
carib:
<lumpenstrudel> "deflating"....
06-20-03
carib:
just confirms the rule: SPAL+FOX=BUY...
06-20-03
SPAL:
ibas 1.37 +0.24 ... go baby.
;-)
06-20-03
carib:
Neznaika: I agree with your posting. If RF gdp is lower than 750 billion $, statistically, RF is more than 5 times poorer than italy. This might be exagerated in terms of PPP, but again: Moscow is <statistically> more expensive than Rome. Forgetting statistics, if the average russian blue collar brings home a paycheck of 7000 R a month and the average fiat blue collar gets 1200 E, the italian fellow is 5 times richer than the russian fellow, in terms of tradable goods (such as cars, DVD players, hairdryers etc) that money can buy. The RF fellow is certainly better off in tax terms, and hope he can catch up the income gap in 50 years or less.
06-20-03
Neznaika:
NYT doing a prospecting story for the upcoming Colores meeting:PATTAYA JOURNAL A Famed Resort Where Tourists Fear to Tread
Where have all the tourists gone? A go-go bar on Walking Street in Pattaya, which has been devastated by fears of terrorism and SARS infection.
By SETH MYDANS
ATTAYA, Thailand, June 14 — It is as if the terrorist attack had already occurred. Beaches and bars are nearly empty. Tour ferries float at anchor in the distance. Even the elephants are idle, with few customers to ride them.
Thailand's most famous beach resort is a study in suspended animation, devastated by a slowdown in tourism caused by fears of terrorism and SARS infection.
This week, things got even worse as Thailand found itself in the bull's-eye of the latest terrorist threats.
In the country's Muslim south, the police arrested three men they said were members of a terrorist cell that was planning to attack embassies and entertainment spots.
At the same time, on a visit to Washington, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra declared that Thailand was an ally in the worldwide campaign against terror, something he had strenuously avoided saying in the past.
Until now, the national policy has boiled down to the plea voiced today by a restaurant manager here: "Why us? We're friendly."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/20/i...
06-20-03
amigo latino:
I believe that in the longrun the Russians will be better off with a market system and democracy.Soviet Union fell principally by the problems generated by an unworkable economic system and lack of open debates—democracy.
But the way it fell was by a combination of internal forces, plus external forces whose goal was to break up the Soviet union(I am not passing any judgement whether it is justified or unjustified external intervention).
I do not think that the breakup of the Soviet Union is in the best interest of the individual republics involved, although it is in the interest of some outside countries.
Also the way market system came into Soviet union—via transferring of enormous state wealth to a few private individuals almost freely may not be in the interest of general good (of Russians).
Many of the republics of former Soviet Union are now saddled with dictatorships, some of whom are openly befriended by democracy-loving nations!
06-20-03
SPAL:
IBAS - sprinting ...
06-20-03
Advice55:
Brazil stocks are again the buy of the day, time to get back in felas....Specially TCP and TNE....
See yaaaa
Time to buy reais against the dolar as well....
USStocks shall acumulate a little more, but brazil is ready to go back up again....Do not miss the next flight55555
06-20-03
wally:
80% <implied by GDP statistics> is <fiction>. any statistic is a whore who can be screwed by anybody. never trust a statistic if you haven't forged it yourself! :~))
06-20-03
Neznaika:
Carib: overall Italy is richer, of course, but not to the extent implied by GDP statistics - probably 2 times, not 5 times.Regarding collapse of USSR discussion - I am not much of a believer in
conspiracy theories, it collapsed from internal problems, not from
external conspiracies, or comodity prices, or Reagan "Star Wars" boogeyman.Intrigues and conspiracies did happen, of course, but that was always the case in big geopoilitical rivalries throughout history, nothing special about that.
Contrary to what one might read in the media, not that many Russians are
paranoid that US would suddenly invade it. Although in mid-90's it felt
like we were invaded by an army of carpetbagger sleazeballs and idiots - not that there is a shortage of them today, but they are listened to much less than before.
:-))
06-20-03
mushroom-seeker:
<in 1975, GDP per person in USSR was 1975$>+<very simple: communists commanded $=0.64 kopeks... black market was always around 3 rubels a $> Just a complement to Glutt – what matter was also the structure of USSR GDP, which was (totally in opposite to the west economies) heavily based on heavy industry and investments in it (with the rest economy simply build around to support it). Until the Breznev era, the gosplan saw the consumption goods industry always as “resource wasting”. So the USSR was in 70’s worlds biggest producer of steel, coal, pipes, KW, tanks, submarines or heavy trucks – but was short to sell own citizens whatever they needed. And USSR failed in this even when it recognized this need (in 70’s) bcs the main drivers of its great past totalitarien economy achievements (fear and believe) has been (after Chruschov) definitely gone – and just malfunctions of central planning (capital misallocation, low productivity, resource wasting) stayed on place until the bitter end. Of course, before (when fear and believe) were drivers than USSR (similary like nazi germany) was in short time perspective able of results, which would be for free society <unthinkable>. But in long term – we all know… What takes of Ruspan question about difference in USSR and Spanish price of Java bike, it was effect of so called <convertible Rubles> (which were used as “untradable” currency in internal trade btwn Matka and her East European satellites). These convertible Rubles were (in its fix rate) administratively declared about twice time overvalued against their faire value, so you were able to get in sojuz eastern European products even cheaper than on the markets of their original producers. (On the other hand Sojuz was selling cheaper oil to its satellites as offset of that). This malfunction of central planning aside, the price of Java in Spain is only reliable, bcs it was always priced only in USD.
06-20-03
amigo latino:
Want to feel Young, try this trend!l !<
Aaaaaaaaagggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!
…….
The latest trend among teens and 20-somethings who indulge in so-called extreme body modification, forking one's tongue like a serpent's "is an art form," said T.J. McGillis, who offers the service for a $250 charge. ……..
"Everybody wants to get it done. It could be the next mainstream thing aside from piercing," he said. ..
That may be an exaggeration. The number of people with split tongues is estimated at 1,500 to 2,000 people by the editor of a Web-based magazine devoted to body modification, but the trend is attracting enough attention that a few U.S. state legislatures have moved to ban the procedure. ……
Go home and pull it apart," McGillis ordered him, suggesting a regimen of separating the two halves each morning and night to prevent reattachment.
After splitting his tongue, Emrys Yetz, 20, said it wasn't long before he could move each half independently and do party tricks like picking up pens and pencils.
"It's done to better yourself," he said, opening his mouth to wiggle each half like a snail waving its antennae. ……
But for believers in modification, a split tongue is merely a start. Split penises, sliced lengthwise in half, are not unheard of among aficionados. ......….>
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...
….
06-20-03
amigo latino:
< optimist: ecu 30 is easily offerd at 63.5 in fact>But Rus 30 is at 99(roughly)—which yield 5% until 2007 when it goes to 7%.
But Ecu yields 7%(as of Aug), goes up by 1% every year to 10% in 2006.
In effect the coupon yield of Ecu 30 is 50% higher (roughly) whereas Rus is a superior credit.
Is the huge difference in price justified? A bond with a 50% higher coupon selling at 63 while the other sells at 99 !!!!
( At one time I owned many(relatively) Rus 30 and I now own some Ecu 30)
06-20-03
carib:
Neznaika: in a way, statistics are always presenting only partials truths. I would not like to be misundersood. I like Russia and most of the russians I met. In general they were very clever guys and gals, and much less shallow than most americans, for the matter.
What I hated is soviet communism, that was a system based on lies. I see no reason why Russia should be poorer than Italy...maybe the opposite should be true. Statistically, Italian per capita GDP must be around 26.000 $. what is the russian current equivalent?
06-20-03
Tariq Aziz:
JPM on Turkey
Move to Underweight from Neutral on
Expected IMF Slippage
We moved Turkey to underweight (from neutral) in our
EMBIG model portfolio yesterday, because we have
become convinced that the fifth and sixth IMF reviews
will be conducted together, meaning that Turkey will not
receive IMF funding until late August or early September
in the best of circumstances. We do not believe that our
opinion about the timing of funding from the IMF is fully
reflected in the current prices of Turkish eurobonds.
06-20-03
SPAL:
IBAS ... running
06-20-03
Fox:
<admit that you did not drop in because i serve only cheap wine?> Thats not the truth!!!
The truth is that I would have drop by just to see you no matter the wine!!The truth also waas that the second time that I was supposed to drop by I had that problem with my daughter.
06-20-03
wally:
<That HURT!!! :~((> why not telling <savo> the truth <zorrito> and admit that you did not drop in because i serve only cheap wine?
06-20-03
wally:
EM is going down again across the board. clink.. clink.. sip.. puff..
06-20-03
Fox:
< <You MUST have a word with <FOX>?> quite a difficult task <savo> as <zorrito> tries hard to avoid me although we are old friends.
:~))
to give you an example. last year <zorro> was twice in the vicinity of my home (less than 50km away) but did not drop in for dinner, in fact not even for a drink.
:~((>
That HURT!!! :~((
06-20-03
Fox:
<You MUST have a word with <FOX>?I am very worried!>
C´mon Savo give me a break!!But think of this, inspite of what you & I may think of technical analysis what it is amazing to me is that anyone can have the same tools <monkeys> spend millions on almost for free!
For example the online trader I use, its incredible Savo!! Im here in Carrasco & I have access to the all the buyers & sellers of an equity its like having the old live screens we used for bonds with the difference that you see all bids & offers of all market participants!
This for an USD 8.00 fee!! This is amazing Savito!!
You know Im no expert or absolute beliver on Technical Analysis but I must confess that I always take a look @ the Graphs before putting an order. This of course can only apply to those assets that have a liquid secondary market.
06-20-03
wally:
<You MUST have a word with <FOX>?> quite a difficult task <savo> as <zorrito> tries hard to avoid me although we are old friends.:~))
to give you an example. last year <zorro> was twice in the vicinity of my home (less than 50km away) but did not drop in for dinner, in fact not even for a drink.
:~((
06-20-03
optimist:
ecu 30 is easily offerd at 63.5 in fact..
06-20-03
SPAL:
Thanks you supplied some good thoughts Fox ... this one I especially like:<5) Never make an absolute bet, I always go in & out in tranches.>
I do some of the same also although my trouble <here> at monkey HQ is that the firewall prevents "push" technology ... therefore I can not get streaming data such as level II info through the firewall ... I can of course at Chateau SPAL, but at least by appearences, I remain a monkey by day. I have considered using a remote control program [to remotely control my home system and/or wireless access but I have not got around to it yet]. What I do do is watch the bid and ask like a hawk ... spread, movement, volume ... I think it compensates in part, but it is not ideal.

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