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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, June 27, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*IMF Tries to Spur Argentinas Economy 06-27-03 (Yahoo) - The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that it was possible to reach agreement with Argentina by the end of August for a major new loan program to help South America's second-largest economy emerge from its worst economic crisis.
*Consumer Spending Rises 0.1 Pct. in May 06-27-03 (Yahoo) - Consumers kept close watch on their purse strings and nudged up their spending in May by 0.1 percent for the second month in a row. Incomes rose modestly
*Consumer Sentiment Dips in June - Report 06-27-03 (Yahoo) U.S. consumers were slightly less optimistic about the economy in June, according to a University of Michigan report seen by market sources on Friday, as the job market stayed stagnant and a stocks rally faded.
*Consumer income, spending up 06-27-03 (cnn.com) - Personal income and spending rose in May, the government said Friday, providing encouraging news about the engine that drives the world's largest economy.
*US economy set to speed up late 2003, analysts say 06-27-03 (Yahoo) The US economy grew at an even slower pace than earlier thought in the first quarter of 2003, the government said, but analysts foresaw a high-speed rebound right ahead.
*World Bank Says Ecuador Loans Hinge On Reform Efforts 06-27-03 (Yahoo) The World Bank has approved loans totaling $1.15 billion for Ecuador over the next four years - but that amount could change depending on how the Andean country complies with reform commitments, an official with the multilateral lender said Wednesday.
*Fed Cut Means Mixed Results 06-27-03 (Washington Post) A few years ago, when the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates to spur the economy, Onis Cox, a retiree in Edmond, Okla., began rethinking how the financial world works. "I knew the more cash you had in the bank, the more savings you had, the better off you're supposed to be," said Cox, 70, who retired from Lockheed Martin Corp. in 1993. "But when the interest rates started falling we were hardly getting any return on our savings, and so we had to adjust our standard of living."

 LATIN AMERICA
*Argentinas President Announces Measures To Boost Housing Market 06-27-03 (Yahoo) Argentine President Nestor Kirchner announced measures to boost the country's struggling housing market, promising moves to make it easier for people to take out mortgages and a public works plan to build - or complete the building of - some 19,500 houses.
*Argentina: Total Worth Of Defaulted Paper $102.7 Billion -Paper 06-27-03 (Yahoo) Argentina is in default on debt worth a total $ 102.7 billion, the country's Finance Secretary Guillermo Nielsen said in an interview published Sunday in local daily Clarin.
*No Quick Fix for Argentina Utilities 06-27-03 (Yahoo) - On the day Guillermo Moreno was sworn in as Argentina's communications secretary, he boldly dismissed one of the thorniest issues facing foreign investors -- utility rate hikes
*Ecuador Prepares To Restructure State-Run Oil Company 06-27-03 (Yahoo) Ecuador's government is laying the groundwork for the development of a plan to overhaul operations at state-run oil company Petroecuador.
*Investors await Brazils inflation target decision 06-26-03 (Financial Times) The Brazilian government was expected on Tuesday to announce its inflation target for the next two years in a move that will determine monetary policy and the prospects for economic recovery. The National Monetary Council, comprising representatives from the finance and planning ministries as well as the central bank, was expected to review next year's target, which stands at 3.75 per cent with a 2.5 percentage point margin of tolerance. But the financial market is expecting consumer prices to increase by 11.6 per cent this year and by 7.4 per cent next year, according to weekly survey released by the central bank on Monday.

 RUSSIA
*Britain, Russia sign agreement on undersea gas pipeline 06-27-03 (Yahoo) Britain and Russia tied their energy futures firmly together with the unveiling of a major agreement to build a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to bring Russian gas supplies to Britain.
*Russia urges UK to back gas pipeline 06-26-03 (Financial Times) Russia is pressing Britain to back a proposed multibillion dollar pipeline that would connect the former Soviet Union's huge gas reserves to the UK market. Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is hoping that Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, will make a strongly supportive statement in favour of the project on Thursday, alongside an official communiqué from his state visit to Britain, which begins today. The visit is also to be marked by the formalisation of another big energy deal - the $14bn (£8.4bn) joint venture between British Petroleum and Russia's TNK. Mikhail Fridman, chairman of the new entity, TNK-BP, told news agencies in Moscow that the deal would be completed at an energy conference in London. The future status of Slavneft, an oil company into which TNK had bought, would be resolved only later.

 AFRICA
*Africa Becomes Battleground in Global Biotech War 06-26-03 (Yahoo) Here the ability of a field of maize to resist pests and drought is a matter of life and death. Yet, while millions of its people faced food shortages last year, Zambia's government told aid agencies to take back thousands of tonnes of GM maize, preferring to wait for unmodified aid than feed GM food to its hungry people. The continent's leaders have become pawns in a wider mesh of conflicting trade and economic interests, bombarded by a confusing array of information blurring into propaganda.

 OIL PRICES
*Iraq Oil Output Set to Exceed 1M Barrels 06-27-03 (Yahoo) Iraq oil exports in July are expected to exceed 1 million barrels a day despite increasing sabotage to the country's oil infrastructure, the senior U.S. government oil adviser in Iraq told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
*Pipeline Attacks Put Iraq Oil Exports in Doubt 06-27-03 (Yahoo) - Iraq (news - web sites) was hit by a new oil pipeline explosion on Thursday, underlining concerns that a breakdown in security is undermining Baghdad's efforts to restore crude exports.
*Natural gas prices predicted to stay high for several years 06-27-03 (globeandmail.com) Prices for natural gas will persist at historically high levels through the middle of the decade, boosting Canada's trade surplus but ravaging the manufacturing sector in the United States, observers say.
*Fuel Price Hike: Workers Go on Strike Monday 06-26-03 (allafrica.com) In protest against the recent increase in the prices of petroleum products by the federal government, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), after an emergency meeting of its National Executive Council (NEC) has ordered Nigerian workers to begin an indefinite strike from Monday. The NLC president, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, who gave the directive at a world press conference yesterday, said the announced increase were unacceptable and should be reversed forthwith.
 
Older RepliesNewer Replies Replies start here:
Newest messages appear on top.


06-27-03  SPAL: FOX - please check mail!

06-27-03  Fox: <can you tell how long it takes to establish?> Well dont forget Im here in Uruguay, it took me two weeks using FedEx to send passport copies & all. Forms are in the site PDF docs.

06-27-03  Fox: <And then they were <only> two... Grande and Savo ... the only <clippers> left!> ÑheÑheÑheÑheÑhe......

Savo it is time to confront reality & truth <You are No clipper>!!!!!

Bill Gross of PIMCO is a clipper!!

You are a <gambler> that uses countries & corps instead of cards, & the reason you gamble with these is that you usually understand the odds much better than the Casino/House/Monkeys.

If you were in Las Vegas the Monkeys/Casinos would not let you in to play!!!!

You buy stuff that have equity like volatility you are no <Clipper>

You are an expert gambler that knows his cards better than the house/monkeys.

Your problem is that you are not willing to get some cash and find new frontiers or new games simply because your core gambling requires all your attention.

& You know what? If you dont need to, dont change your game!!!

This business is not only about monetary capital it also has a great share of intellectual capital both must be preserved & augmented. ;-))


06-27-03  Glutt: amigo latino: <Savo, bond prices may go down, but the (coupon) income of the clipper stays the same! > that fits for high net worth individual, which i am not. for this reason i often prefer a solid capital gain to coupon clipping and current yield story but i have my respect for CCC style which is very appropriate given your coupons can cover your own expenses at least.

06-27-03  savonarola: Treasuries continue going <up> .. as they should, and <monkeys> are still short trying to buy back what they sold and <did not have>.

The US is unable to pump oil out of Irak as 100,000 soldiers are unable to control 25,000,000 unhappy irakies.

Oil prices are <up> and not <down> while <monkeys> have sold Guano.

<Monkeys> must be very confused. Whatever they do, the contrary happens.


06-27-03  savonarola: Fox..<petrochina>

Why do you like it?

It has already US$50 bn plus market cap.... where can that go?


06-27-03  carib: Merugo <panama> I guess the guano exports of oil and other commodities priced in dollars is no smaller than the canal revenue. the number of canal employees is also much lower than the number of guanovians remitting dollars from abroad.

06-27-03  Glutt: Fox: <How I trade <Golden Cucarachas>:> thanks for useful tips. can you tell how long it takes to establish?

Spal, thanks for your reply to merugo.


06-27-03  Fox: < Fox... should I now buy a calculator?> Tio cojonudo!!!

You know what I hate most??

That you know I no nothing about Thecnical Analysis!!

You know this because YOU understand this stuff 100 times better than I do!!!

But when making <Micro> decisions related on to a <Macro> decision I use 3 parameters (in order of importance):

1) Gutt

2) Coin Tossing

3) Graphs

About the calculator you are an <Old Fart> like me using the HP 12C <Dinosour>


06-27-03  SPAL: < 06-27-03 merugo: < SPAL: Yes friends...1 2nd Thess 2:9, Rev 13:13...1 Matt 8:12 > Friendly, dear Spal, the use of religious quotations in this profane board should be avoided. >

You have a curiously censorious nature and a clear drive to proslytize ... although disinterested reading some of your posts I am not sure what besides wanting to try to prove yourself ... I kindly suggest that you restrain it ...


06-27-03  Fox: How I trade <Golden Cucarachas>:

1) Use an online Trader that opens an account to a non US resident. http://www.cybertrader.com

2) Follow charts for micro decision, needed a site that not only has charts but gives me some sort of explanation other than the nice colours I see. http://stockcharts.com

3) Black Box.
For the last year I been analyzing this site called: http://www.valuengine.com I think I finally understood how to use it, have traded it very little with it so far but done OK.

Last but not least <Im not a Stock Picker>!!!! <Spal is a stock picker> !!!

I try to do the same thing I do with Bonds, look @ the Macro & search the asset that best express my views.

Great effort for me know is <China>


06-27-03  savonarola: This should almost take care of the repayment of the <Mendoza> bond:

http://www.losandes.com.ar/2003/062...


06-27-03  savonarola: Fox... should I now buy a calculator?

06-27-03  amigo latino: Savo, bond prices may go down, but the (coupon) income of the clipper stays the same!

(Remember net worth accounting issues discussion)


06-27-03  Fox: Ok Guys just checked and all charts are in the file. One of them is in old mail as I opened to check if they were OK. Have fun you all!

06-27-03  Fox: They are on their way Wallito if you like the format I have Spal Portfolio as well as many Argy, Braz, China, EM Bonds Closed end Funds & some crazy portfolio based on ValueEngine´s quantitative system. Wallito Im no expert in graphs or technical analysis but once I made a decision they help me with my micro decisions (when to go in & out).

06-27-03  wally: <If you want my charts I will send them ColoresFiles> please send <zorrito>.

06-27-03  Fox: <TGS,TEO,GGAL & BFR> Hoooolllld iiiittttt!!!!! Charts are showing that this babies are big time overbought!!!! MACD is started to come down but IMHO they will come down further!!

What Im doing:

1) GGAL sold 50% of original position @ 4.88. Plan to double original position.
Entry points: 4.34, 4.19 & 4.06. According to the Graphs it could go as low as 3.99.

2) TEO sold everything @ 7.00.
New entry points 6.20, 6.00 & 5.95.

3) TGS this is the hardest to trade you really must buy when eveyone is selling & sell when everyone is buying. First entry point: 2.75

BFR I dont trade as I prefer GGAL.

All of these <Golden Cucarachas> were incredible over bought as per CCI & had their MACD @ the highest point in the last two years. I was hoping for something to go wrong so the market could find an excuse to sell. Lavagna imposed the 180 day minimum limit to foreign capital & apparently IMF has approved a low increase in tariffs about 10% to 15% this should keep the market nervous for a couple weeks. (I hope).

Recommendation: Establish maximum amount of investment in each stock. Do it in tranches liquidity can be a killer in TGS. Its like going to the beach I usually test the water with my toe first. If you want my charts I will send them ColoresFiles.


06-27-03  savonarola: It looks as if after two days of extreme paranoia, the UST <monkey> cmmunity have finally realised that rates have been cut and not increased and that therefore bonds should go <up> and not <down>.

Of course <our> <monkeys> have followed the UST <monkeys> as if they would know what they were doing forgetting that they are also <monkeys> after all. But they will regret having sold <what they don't have>.

Particularly Guano. It seems that the GNOE has misscalculated their occupation of Irak. They planned to finance it with oil proceeds. Unfortunately there are 25 million Irakis that are not happy with that, so they boycot oil production.

The oil market is not receiving the expected Iraki oil, and those <oil monkeys> that sold in anticipation now have to buy back <what they don't have>. Consequently, contrary to expectations, oil is going <up> and not <down>.

What a confusing situation for our <monkeys>. They sell the only country running an overall surplus which produces and exports oil, all under the spell of <Jose Barrionuevo and Morgan Stanley's Whitney Kane>. They wil lose.. as they always do.


06-27-03  wally: She-Bond <88.312 88.688>

06-27-03  merugo: < SPAL: Yes friends...1 2nd Thess 2:9, Rev 13:13...1 Matt 8:12 > Friendly, dear Spal, the use of religious quotations in this profane board should be avoided.

06-27-03  merugo: <carib: panama has been using the dollar with no problems for decades>Panama main products for decades were its share of dollar royalties of the channel, or the wages of the personnel involved in, why for it to print money?

06-26-03  victorn: amigo <DR people always have the ready smile to deserve the help!>, and many of its citizens living in the u.s., which makes it very convenient for u.s. politicians to provide this help.

06-26-03  victorn: amigo, right now it's just a temp fix. The real reforms (if any) will come after next year's presidential election. The u.s., and imf, first want to make sure that the prd wins next year's pres election. And then they will pursue the reforms, which could be unpopular. The congress is, of course, controlled by the prd by a large majority until 2006. So passing whatever reforms is no problem. Any comments?

06-26-03  victorn: cheetah <your pupil should have figured that one out without asking>, being wally's pupil is an honor. But i would never listen to your advice, not even in my worst nightmare.

06-26-03  amigo latino: Good news from DR

<….Despadel, Secretario Tecnico de DR, said that banking in the Dominican Republic would now be under much stricter supervision and have tighter controls than banking system of the United States. *****He said that international experts would oversee local banks. > Santo Domingo News

Ofcourse, depends on who the <international experts>are!!


06-26-03  SPAL: < wally: <TGS, TEO and BFR> impressive charts >

I can not be seeing this .... FOXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX!!!!!


06-26-03  SPAL: Yes friend signs of a new turn in EM ...

For there shall arise false Christs, and false prophets, and shall shew great signs and wonders; insomuch that, if it were possible, they shall deceive the very elect. 1 2nd Thess 2:9, Rev 13:13

... I am most alarmed Wally and trust the "profits" [or not - pun intended] of schweinkram shall not cause their good selves to be

... shall cut [him] asunder, and appoint him his portion with the hypocrites: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth. 1 Matt 8:12

:-(


06-26-03  wally: <for Wally maybe we start something new> i am all ears <spal>. 42% cash!

06-26-03  wally: <TGS, TEO and BFR> impressive charts <cheetah>! will start tomorrow (no joke!).

06-26-03  SPAL: <i am sure SPAL will give you SBAC... > ah but it has been given already ... we are in a bit of a quiet period on this one ... more to come of course ... no for Wally maybe we start something new ...

06-26-03  amigo latino: Victor: concerning the stability of DR bond prices in spite of DR’s deteriorating situation: I do not know for sure. However, I add some thoughts:

1) Following is taken from a local newspaper:

<that the decision to make private debt(failed Baninter bank debt) public will increase the public debt from 21.9% of the Gross Domestic Product as of December 2002 to 41.7% of the Gross Domestic Product as of December 2003. The interest payments on the public debt, without including capital payments, will increase from 6.5% of government revenues in 2002 to 21.5% in 2003. ……>

Perhaps the bondholders are comfortable concentrating only on the 41.7% figure, instead of worrying about the acceleration –how fast the number moved from 21.9% to 41.7%.

2) DR is not a country that gets into conflict with the US—in external affairs, DR policy is to follow US without questions. Also it is a member of the coalition(hence DR president was received by George Bush-—a rare honor, and also DR is a longtime friend of Iglesias of IADB(reasons?) and Iglesias spent a few days here very recently.

Hence bondholders may be thinking that DR will always get help---DR people always have the ready smile to deserve the help!


06-26-03  wally: <wally you want to BUY some pigtish equities... may i recommend TGS, TEO and BFR in Argi...in USA you have AES...> thanks <cheetah>. will have a look and do a little research although i'd prefer from you, <SK-spal> or <zorrito> some simple instructions for beginners like <buy buy buy!> or <sell sell sell!>. based on the results i can make up my mind whether to follow these kind of <advices> or discard them.

I AM LISTENING and willing to give it a try!


06-26-03  wally: <( The AC power output of UPS needs to be converted back to 12 V DC for use in laptop!)> sure <amigo> but it applies only to those who put on their socks and underwear with plumbers' pliers in the morning! all what you do is plug the ac/dc adapter of your laptop into the UPS and it works. it does not work however if powercuts in your area last for several hours as the capacity of a normal UPS is much less.

06-26-03  Cheetah: "wally: <victorn: wally, why do you buy ecu12 instead of ecu30?> because of current yield."

wally why waste time with an obvious answer...your pupil should have figured that one out without asking...

and wally you want to BUY some pigtish equities...

may i recommend TGS, TEO and BFR in Argi...in USA you have AES...i am sure SPAL will give you SBAC...


06-26-03  Cheetah: "SPAL: <Any suggestions?> yes Amigo will start a riot in front of a bank tomorrow ... sorry could not restist ... then again this could be a another new trend for the colors "

SPAL...you know we have done this before...Pinky does not care much of us...


06-26-03  Cheetah: will be buying back my Veni27...let's see if i can get them with a 73 handle...

vic-torn please disagree...


06-26-03  amigo latino: . Sorry: should read: I read recently that there is one secuestro @ 72 hours, amounting to 120 per year in Argy

06-26-03  amigo latino: <victorn: El padre de Leonardo Astrada, volante del equipo argentino River Plate, fue secuestrado ........>

I read recentlt that there is one secuestro @ 72 hours, amunting to 120 per year; in Clombia –2000 per year. I think that the number in DR is much much less--- perhaps 20-40 per year(many are not reported, the families quietly pay off the ransom money).


06-26-03  SPAL: <Any suggestions?> yes Amigo will start a riot in front of a bank tomorrow ... sorry could not restist ... then again this could be a another new trend for the colors ... create our own panics and coup d'etat ... where do we start?

;-)


06-26-03  SPAL: Wally - gambling - schweinkram and cucarachas ... FOX what should we make of this??

Wally - rest assured, more than beer money can be made ... the purists must just be sure to avert their eyes ...

;-)



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