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Friday, August 8, '03
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 | US widens free-trade deals 08-08-03 (BBC) Chile's wines may now go further Singapore and Chile have become the first Asian and first South American nations to gain free trade relationships with the US.
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 | No Investment With Wars Chissano 08-07-03 (allafrica.com) MAPUTO The second summit of the African Union (AU) ended in Maputo on Saturday with a new leadership to oversee collective action to end the civil wars tearing the continent apart.
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 | Summit Opens in Abuja With Tributes to Founders Legacy 08-07-03 (allafrica.com) The sixth Leon H. Sullivan Summit opened Saturday in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, with President George Bush praising the "vision" of the event's late founder.
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 | Drifting away 08-07-03 (denverpost.com) Once in high demand, technical workers in Colorado and across the nation are seeing their jobs sent overseas, where labor is cheaper. Many fear such 'offshoring' will hurt the economy and nationa l security.
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 | Free-market democracy is often a bad fit 08-07-03 (rockymountainnews.com) Free-market democracy is the answer to many of the world's nagging ills, or so most Americans seem to assume. This belief undergirds U.S. policy toward Iraq, for example, as well as the official attitude toward many other developing nations.
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 | Double standard on globalization 08-07-03 (boston.com) F YOU get into a conversation with a billing representative of your credit card provider or phone company, you may notice a faint Indian accent. That's because the services industry is shifting more back room operations to India, where labor costs are a fraction of those in the United States. IBM, likewise, will soon move several thousand computer programming jobs to India, where programmers get far lower salaries. This decision has angered IBM employees and is contributing to a rare unionization drive at the high-tech giant, a company that once prided itself on never laying anyone off.
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 | Arab world dignitaries coming to Detroit economic forum 08-07-03 (freep.com) Organizers of an economic forum to be held in Detroit next month are hoping to shore up relations between the United States and the Arab world.
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 | Chiles Media Watchdog 08-08-03 (inthesetimes.com) On the same May 12 afternoon that Michael Copps, dissident commissioner for the Federal Communications Commission, was in San Rafael, California, speaking out against the commission’s (later successful) efforts to ease media ownership restrictions, veteran Chilean journalist Ernesto Carmona was in nearby Berkeley, California, railing against the media conglomerates in his own country.
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 | Chiles leader concerned WTO might talks stall 08-08-03 (globeandmail.com) OTTAWA -- If coming World Trade Organization talks in Mexico stall, key players such as the United States may decide to focus their energies elsewhere, hobbling a 17-year quest to open global commerce, Chilean President Ricardo Lagos says.
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 | Canadian may hold key to identifying Chilean blob 08-08-03 (globeandmail.com) A large and mysterious blob of grey flesh that washed up on a Chilean beach may be the remains of a never-before-seen species of giant octopus, and researchers are using a genetic test developed by a Canadian scientist to find out.
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 | Venezuela tries to pull politics out of the classroom 08-08-03 (csmonitor.com) CARACAS, VENEZUELA – If it weren't for the violence, one might say that Venezuela's schoolchildren have been able to witness Latin American history in the making - a real-life civics lesson without equal.
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 | Latin Americas Oil Legacy 08-08-03 (npr.org) July 2003 -- The U.S. imports more oil from Latin America than from all Middle Eastern countries combined. Oil wealth has long generated dreams of prosperity but in the lands of production, the reserves have often been a Midas curse of political and economic instability.
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 | Venezuelan oil producer in financial turmoil 08-08-03 (Financial Times) Venezuela's state-owned oil company is in financial disarray, with more than $2.2bn (€1.9bn, £1.4bn) in unbilled oil deliveries and several hundred million dollars' worth of unpaid exports, according to documents obtained by the FT.
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 | A Different Tack on Brazil 08-07-03 (Washington Post) R ubens Barbosa, Brazil's ambassador to Washington, who says he is upbeat by nature, has an even more positive outlook these days. He said a summit here last month between Presidents Bush and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defied all expectations and could lead to long-term benefits for both countries.
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 | OPEC and USA Want To Win Russias Support 08-07-03 (pravda.ru) When OPEC, a powerful oil cartel, gathers for a meeting in Vienna, sheikhs will not be smiling that much as they did before. The organization of oil exporters is currently suffering from two problems: the resumption of the export of the Iraqi oil and the continuing mess within the cartel.
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 | Democracy in the Philippines is under threat 08-08-03 (taipeitimes.com) President Gloria Arroyo's claim that the end to a mutiny last weekend was a `victory for democracy' is not quite true By Ronald Meinardus
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 | Philippine Senator Charged Over Mutiny 08-08-03 (Yahoo) MANILA, Philippines - Police named an opposition senator as a leader of last week's failed military mutiny, charging him, four senior officers and two civilians Monday with backing the attempt to topple President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (news - web sites).
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 | Philippine police probe assassination plot against President Arroyo 08-08-03 (Yahoo) MANILA (AFP) - Police are investigating a reported plot to kill or kidnap Philippines President Gloria Arroyo as part of a failed coup attempt, a senior aide said.
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 | An obstacle to global recovery 08-07-03 (iht.com) Asian currencies are on the move from the business pages to the front page. Just as the overvaluation of Asian currencies in the mid 1990's helped create conditions for the Asian financial crisis, so undervaluation now is an obstacle to restoration of global financial equilibrium.
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 | India rejects World Bank gloom 08-07-03 (BBC) India's economy has survived drought and hard times Indian finance officials have dismissed as "doom and gloom" a report from the World Bank, which on Monday called for Delhi to rein in spending or face possible economic catastrophe.
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 | Analysis: Africas Future 08-07-03 (npr.org) Robert Siegel talks with Ted Dange, Africa specialist at the Congressional Research Service, about the significance of President Bush's trip to Africa and Africa's changing relationship with the United States and the West.
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 | 11 African Nations to Set Up Task Force 08-07-03 (Yahoo) ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia - Eleven African nations have agreed to set up a U.S.-backed regional task force to respond to disasters and terrorist attacks, a senior U.S. military officer said Wednesday.
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 | Sub-Saharan Africa is in dire need of investment 08-07-03 (npr.org) While President Bush travels around Africa this week, NPR's Kathleen Schalch reports that Sub-Saharan Africa is in dire need of foreign economic investors. While President Bush travels around Africa this week, NPR's Kathleen Schalch reports that Sub-Saharan Africa is in dire need of foreign economic investors.
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 | FT: US Energy Group Eyes UK Power Plants 08-07-03 (Yahoo) LONDON (Reuters) - A U.S. energy group is seeking to raise more than $1.60 billion of private finance to buy some of Britain's power stations, the Financial Times Web Site reported on Sunday, without citing sources.
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 | British Energy gambles on Brussels u-turn 08-07-03 (guardian.co.uk) Adrian Montague, British Energy's chairman, yesterday staked the future of the stricken nuclear operator on winning EU approval for a £4bn-plus government ADVERTISEMENT rescue plan that Brussels has so far ruled illegal.
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Newest messages appear on top.
08-09-03
wally:
<Many people of the greater towns go up so that they can sleep> yep, richtig so! because the @ssholes are too stingy to invest a few bucks for a couple of airconditioners. kotzt mich an wenn ich so einen mist hoere!
08-09-03
Cheetah:
Advice-55: "Last time people told me that, the real was at 3,50 and I was selling, CBonds were at 50, and I was buying, TCP was at 2, and I was buying...."SOS UN MENTIROSO !!!
you have been "buying" TCP at and over $4.00 for the last 6 months and been catastrophically mistakn...you were "FLY" she-bonds all the time during the TOP...relentlesly telling evryone to BUY all brazilian bonds at the TOP...
you were again catastrophically mistakn...i guess you would prefer to forget all your mis-advice of this year 2003...
am i glad i have used you as a PCI !!!
mua mua !!!
08-09-03
Glutt:
<carib: Amigo: I am unable to follow all this anal-s talk on argy recovery value. IMHO if there is willingness to pay, shown by a primary surplus in 2004 of 3,5% of GDP, the defaulted debt can be restructured. With a 2% surplus, considering the cost of servicing the debt that is current, I just see no acceptable restructuring possible. > = EXACTamigo, do not forget that ANALs talk about recovery value implying that banks made relevant provisions of 100%. for those who lost in Argentina own money there is no recovery value in ARG restructuring but there is minimization of a loss. IMHO
greetings from rainy Baltic, i am on vacation
08-09-03
carib:
Amigo: I am unable to follow all this anal-s talk on argy recovery value. IMHO if there is willingness to pay, shown by a primary surplus in 2004 of 3,5% of GDP, the defaulted debt can be restructured. With a 2% surplus, considering the cost of servicing the debt that is current, I just see no acceptable restructuring possible.
08-09-03
amigo latino:
Excerpt from: It is time to buy Argentina-a lot! Molano Posted by manya (Friday, August 08, 2003)< Molano : …Hence, the outlook for Argentina's debt restructuring is very favorable. Given the country's history and capacity to pay, we expect the NPV haircut to range between 50% and 30%. The market is already pricing in a 50% haircut, given that it knows that the restructuring may be 18 months away and the country risk is roughly 13%. A smaller haircut would lead to a rally in Argentine bond prices. A shorter restructuring period would have a
similar effect. Therefore, Argentine bonds are extremely attractive, despite the negative hype on Wall Street. It is time to buy Argentina-a lot! >
1.Any comments about the very optimistic recommendation of Walter Molano?
2.Fox, if I am not mistaken, Molano’s expected NPV reduction appears to be closer to what you suggested a few weeks ago!
3.Thanks Manya for a posting an interesting article with an unusual perspective.
08-09-03
Hase:
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,15...only a weather report in german
08-09-03
Hase:
for the next I recommand you another royal airline = Quatar Airways, but "Holzklasse". As far as you know a <hase> is a little animal so a <hase> can fly Holzklasse. If the seat beside is empty you can accept it.
Yesterday 38,4 degrees in casinotown but more worse the high temperatures in the night. not under 21 - 22°C. My wife told me that the hotels in the upper forest region are full. Many people of the greater towns go up so that they can sleep. I would not live in the heart of FRA or DA, MA, KA.... . Today to the "seenachtfest" but on swiss site.
08-09-03
wally:
<Hase: <shittiest flights EVER in my whole life> more details please. Was the royal airline not royal?> i have renamed the "Royal Business Class" into "Royal Beschissiness Class"!
08-08-03
Mon:
I believe this week offered an opportunity to buy Abu bonds. I bought Phil'25 at 106 last Wednesday.Cheetah-I don't know if your comment about buying UST 10 year was in jest but I bought it at 94 16/32 on Wednesday.
08-08-03
Advice55:
<with this i am also protecting whatever asssets you have left from your losses in Brazil>ahahahahaha!!!!
Losses! ahahahahahahaha!
Cheetah, you realy think you are as good as you say? ahahaha
Stop the bullshit, every one knows you around here....
I am your PCI?
Good! Very good! Be my guess.....
Last time people told me that, the real was at 3,50 and I was selling, CBonds were at 50, and I was buying, TCP was at 2, and I was buying....
I hope this guys do not do what the say....hehehehe
Otherwise they are just f---ed....
08-08-03
Cheetah:
Advice55: TCP closed the upward gap and looks ready to another wave of rally....
Buy Back in the air!
hahahahahaha !!!
advice pleeeese do NOT BEWITCH my TCP...i told you to BUY @ $3...and hold...now if you start with all this "flying" stuff i will SELL my TCP before it goes to $4...
and i don't want to...but you are now my PCI...perfect contrarian indicator...
08-08-03
Cheetah:
advice55...pleeeease take my offer and buy the 10 yr UST...take the 5% and don't FLY anything alse...don't tell me about the everyday last opportunity in TCP...pleeeease spare us the wasted time...
with this i am also protecting whatever asssets you have left from your losses in Brazil...take the 5% that will be more you can ever make after seeing your technical trading calls...
no more 'dojis' or gap filling or double bottoms...ciao advice55...take the 5% and run...
08-08-03
carib:
prov BA confirmed proposed restructuring will have no haircut of principal, but lower coupon and longer duration. (as expected by colores)
They plan to conclude it before year end.
08-08-03
Advice55:
TCP closed the upward gap and nothing else today....Just taking it´s time, leaving indicators light a little more to trade higher....
I love when you do not believe me!
I love when the market just prices wrongly something!
After all, that is called opportunity!
Have a nice weekend!
08-08-03
Zephyr:
Hey <flyboy>. TCP really <flying> now: 3.50 -.09
08-08-03
bengtsfl:
Hello people could anyone tell me if they know of any spreadbetting outfits that cover EMBI spreads or somesuch.
08-08-03
Advice55:
Brazil bovespa trying to take a little profits 1 hour before the close....Intraday profit taking should be seen as a great new chance to increase exposure before nominal interest rates fall sharply this month....
Will not be surprised if Brazil closes twards the highs of the day, or higher than the present highs of the day..... There is just very little downside, and when the downside shrinks.....
Posted!
08-08-03
Advice55:
TCP closed the upward gap and looks ready to another wave of rally....Buy Back in the air!
08-08-03
Advice55:
<Brazil's Central Bank said on Friday it cut bank reserve requirements on demand deposits to 45 percent from 60 percent in a bid to kick start the economy now that inflation is in check……………><Which one is more important in constraining current loan expansion in Brazil: reserve ratio or interest rates ? Comments?>
My opinion, the two ones are important, very important, the two ones are ways to reduce the nominal rate and to increase liquidity and are the sine that the real capital, the direct investment capital is waiting for to return to Brazil strongly....
And attention, it is happening just as I said, they are increasing the liquidity and the real is getting stronger, cause the market already knows inflation is under control and the foreign direct investment was just waiting for the signs that the next step is an improvement in the level of activity of the economy..... You are seeing a good dam strong and good reaction in the exchange rate to the increase in liquidity and that will continue.....
USStocks in oversold territory now again, carefull on the sell side of USStocks as well....
08-08-03
k1:
@carib & amigo
<reminds me of the discussion on the call on Guano 12.... > everytime discussions on the ECU12 call come up the discussions fade away pritty quick, as the prices seem to drop every time then ;-))
As I wrote I also think, that at the presence it does not seem likely CESP will be able to exercise the call. But sometimes things change quick (just look at the chart of the 2004 bond). With nominal interest of 14% without the put there would be quite some upside potential which is now limited @100 (theoretically).
By the way with the partial repayments of the 2008 bonds in 2004/06/07 it is still possible to purchase the 2011 with the proceeds of the repayments - it´s just the 1% interest and the onetime increase of 5% nominal of the 2011 you would loose (asuming the 2011 will not go above par).
@amigo the 2007 is less then 30M$ outstanding (90% put exercised) so this is really not the issue for the 2008.
08-08-03
carib:
Amigo: true. And one can add that as long as the 14% 2011 would trade below par, it would be cheaper for the issuer to buy it back rather than calling it...reminds me of the discussion on the call on Guano 12....
08-08-03
amigo latino:
<carib ……Now they have the 5% cash to pay, next year the 10% cash, in 2005 they will have to repay the 12,5 bond and then to amortize and repay the 2008….> there is 2007 bond to be included in counting the payment obligations! Chances appear to be slim that CESP will have funds(Cash flow or borrowed) to repay the 14% bond before 2009.
If CESP complied with the obligations until then, the 14% will sell above par :< Anyway, if the scenario turned from gray to pink...prices would go above par.. >
< k1: I did opt 50:50 (2008 : 2011)> indeed, the two options are very close.
08-08-03
SPAL:
Whatchoo talkin’ about, Willis?
Couldn't think of a better candidate for a more deserving state of the union [Larry Flynt "a Smut-Peddler Who Cares" notwithstanding] ...
Gary Coleman for California governor
http://www.msnbc.com/news/949247.asp
08-08-03
Cheetah:
comments ?
sell Guano and buy Brazil...
and the 10yr UST...
08-08-03
SPAL:
Chicken Little ...
Chicken Little told us that, fueled by the huge issuance of new bills and notes this week, the next step up would be to 5 percent. After that, as deficit spending led to ever greater government borrowings, where long term interest rates were concerned the sky was the limit.
As mortgage rates soared ever higher in tandem with this, the housing market would collapse, refinancing would totally dry up. When these last pillars holding up the economy gave in, the recovery would be stopped in its tracks.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...
08-08-03
carib:
k1: you are right about the call on CESP. however, if CESP did not have a very serious problem, they would not be offering 14% + 10% premium. Now they have the 5% cash to pay, next year the 10% cash, in 2005 they will have to repay the 12,5 bond and then to amortize and repy the 2008. All this besides interest payments... I would be surprised if the 11 will be called before 2008. Anyway, if the scenario turned from gray to pink...prices would go above par...and I would have no problem with that.
08-08-03
amigo latino:
<Brazil's Central Bank said on Friday it cut bank reserve requirements on demand deposits to 45 percent from 60 percent in a bid to kick start the economy now that inflation is in check……………The amount of money Brazil's Central Bank requires banks to keep on reserve compares with levels as low as 20 percent in other emerging market economies, according to analysts.
Bank reserve requirements -- already among the highest in the world -- were hiked in February in line with rates to cure last year's seven-year-high inflation………….>
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030808/econ...
Unless there are borrowers willing to take loans at high interest rates(20-30 % ?), lowering reserve ratio may not help to increase the the money borrowed (although banks will have more lendable funds with lowered reserve ratio) .
Which one is more important in constraining current loan expansion in Brazil: reserve ratio or interest rates ? Comments?
08-08-03
Chuy:
OZY<"give to caesar what's etc etc".>,I a la Iglesia lo que es etc. Amen
08-08-03
manya:
Lehman:" The market is firmer, with the EMBI+ at +544 stripped spread, tighter by 16bps. The outperformers are Brazil (33bps), Ecuador (25bps), and Venz (21bps), and Russia (23bps). In London we saw very good take out in Russia, as the spread touched +371. We saw buying from both locals and European accounts. The market open stronger by 1.5pts, Russia '30 touched $90.50. Hedge Funds took some profits and pushed the market down to $89.875. The buying is fueled by the positive close of Brazilian assets. The Russian curve has normalized as buyers
concentrate on the back-end of the curve. In Turkey, technicals are
positive, since most accounts are either short or flat their index. Yesterday, we saw broad base buying, lead by locals. The locals are very constructive on the fundamentals in the short term. Over the past few weeks we have taken bonds out of real money buy and hold accounts, and sold them to trading accounts. There are several forces at work that can take this market in either direction. Dedicated EM mutual funds have seen another week of redemptions of $76mln. The High Yield funds seen more redemptions of $2.6mln for the same period. The likelihood of selling from HY managers of residual EM positions is high. At the same time, dedicated accounts have cash on hand, but the Treasury volatility makes them cautious. "
08-08-03
Hase:
<shittiest flights EVER in my whole life> more details please. Was the royal airline not royal?
08-08-03
k1:
RE: CESP
on the 2011 there is a call on any interest payment date. At the present it looks like CESP will be more then busy repaying the 2005 and 2008 bonds, but if things change and CESP has a good free cashflow and/or better refinancing possibilities (below 14%) sometime in the future it might well be that the call will be exercised (even before the 2008 gets repaid in full). I did opt 50:50 (2008 : 2011).
08-08-03
carib:
Amigo: if you go to London on the 13th, you can vote then. Otherwise you might have to vote today. If CESP does not go bust, the 14% bond is better, IMHO. You get 5 cash now, 10 cash next year, and will still be left with 95 of new bond with 14% coupon. As I bought @55, the YTM is very attractive. If CESP goes bust soon, selling rather than exchanging is the best choice. If CESP will go bust, but not any time soon, the 2005 12,5% bond is safer, because it will be the first to get paid, after the restructuring. The issue now is, assuming the restructuring goes OK, what levels do you imagine the new bonds trading in a couple of months?
08-08-03
amigo latino:
Carib and Cirun: Thanks for the comments.Is today the last day for accept bond exchange offer ? According to the 407 page explanatory memorandum( the first page ), Aug 13 03 5pm (London time). My bank was told by(? Bond custodian) that today is last day.
Carib, according to preliminary calculations(made two weeks ago) the 13% 2008 bond has a higher rate of return. I thought of checking my calculations in the coming weekend and decide(taking into a/c other factors). Since I am pressured suddenly to make a choice today, I am electing for 14% bond(2% more money upfront and the higher bond nominal—105 vs 100).
08-08-03
rolfkoch:
hi carib,i am glad to see you have bought cesp,i bought also some
08-08-03
carib:
Amigo; re CESP, I confirm Cirun. The option of keeping the old bonds is only there if there is no 75% majority for amending the terms. I voted to get a 14% 2011.
08-08-03
ozymiani:
<How is that there is no organization of Christian states !> because of "give to caesar what's etc etc".
08-08-03
cirun:
amigo: Cesp meeting is on 13. august for voting for swap and 14. august voting for amendements. if you take part on the swap your vote for amedement of remaining bonds is automatcly included. The nr 2) is not well publihsed to the brokers. I think they have reasons for it...
regards
08-08-03
amigo latino:
Carib, K1, RalfKoch and others: What is the last date for voting on CESP’s bond exchange and bond modifications? According to JP Morgan document(417 page doc from colorefiles), the last date is Aug 13. But my bank was told by the bond custodian(I believe) that the last date is today. Is it correct that the voting choices are:
1) modify the maturity date to 2008, coupon date to 13%…… and exchange to 14%, 2011 bond,(bondholder will receive 3% plus 2% for voting)
2) modify the maturity date to 2008, coupon date to 13%…… and not exchange to 14%, 2011 bond, (bondholder will receive 3% for voting)
3)Not to vote(and hence opt for not changing the bond in any form)
My broker says that he is not aware that the choice 2 is present(He did not receive the details of the bond exchange prospectus(417 page doc) from JP Mogan!)
Please comment.
08-08-03
amigo latino:
<PaxWax: Most sensational news of the day, IMO, is that Russia (a country with many millions of Muslim citizens) is seeking to join the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC)………….>How is that there is no organization of Christian states !
08-08-03
wally:
<danni: WALLY Just received your mail today, enjoy your 4hand message> mu preferences differentiate from those of <pilly>! i prefer my "massages" without any hands being involved :~)))
08-08-03
davidetre:
Well Danny

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