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Friday, August 29, '03
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 | IMF pessimistic on UK growth 08-29-03 (guardian.co.uk) The International Monetary Fund last night raised fresh doubts about Gordon Brown's forecasts for the economy when it cut its assessment of UK growth both ADVERTISEMENT this year and next and expressed concern about Britain's inflation-prone housing market.
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| GDP Grew at Revised 3.1% Clip in 2Q on Consumer Spending 08-29-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter than previously estimated as consumers spent at a stronger pace than previously thought.
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| Answers needed now on natural gas problem 08-28-03 (boston.com) GET READY FOR dire predictions about a long, cold -- and expensive -- winter. Already we are being warned of a natural gas shortage of "crisis" proportions. Interior Secretary Gale Norton used that word recently while speaking to the Natural Gas Roundtable in Washington. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan -- without using the C word -- also sounded the alarm about rising natural gas prices.
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| IMF warns US over mounting deficit 08-28-03 (Financial Times) The US will remain the main engine of growth for the global economy but needs a plan to control its swelling budget deficit, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
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| IMF: U.S. Too Upbeat on Budget, Lacks Plan 08-28-03 (Yahoo) MILAN (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) is set to reproach the U.S. in its next World Economic Outlook for being too optimistic in its assumptions on state spending and revenues and lacking a medium-term budget consolidation plan, according to a summary of a draft IMF report leaked to Reuters.
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| Good economic news boosts outlook for U.S. 08-28-03 (globeandmail.com) WASHINGTON -- A batch of good economic news, including rising consumer confidence and a jump in orders for big-ticket items such as cars, is the latest clue that the U.S. economy is emerging from its funk.
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| Chile votes to allow divorce 08-29-03 (guardian.co.uk) Chile, one of the few countries in the world where divorce is banned, is set to change the law in a move hailed as a major challenge to hypocrisy.
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| Pressure on Brazil Leader for New Jobs 08-29-03 (Yahoo) SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazil slipped into a recession during the second quarter of 2003, increasing pressure on new President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to fulfill his campaign promise to create 10 million jobs in South America's largest country.
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| Argentinas Dirty War 08-28-03 (theconnection.org) What Argentina calls its "Dirty War" is an ugly stain on the nation's history. From 1976 to 1983, a military government systematically tortured, killed, and "disappeared" tens of thousands of people suspected of opposing the government.
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| Argentine Victims Testify Against Cavallo 08-28-03 (Yahoo) MADRID, Spain - A Spanish judge seeking to put a former Argentine military officer on trial for rights abuses wrapped up his investigation Wednesday after hearing from seven alleged torture victims — including one who said he was subjected to electric shocks with his newborn son lying on his chest.
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| Chile Court Rules Out New Pinochet Rights Trial 08-28-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - A fresh bid to have Chile's former strongman Augusto Pinochet (news - web sites) face human rights charges failed on Wednesday when a panel of judges voted against taking away his immunity.
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| Venezuela edges towards resolving political crisis 08-28-03 (Financial Times) Venezuela's Supreme Court appointed a five-member electoral council late on Monday, a move that increases significantly the chances of a democratic resolution to the country's protracted political crisis.
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| Sect Leader on Trial in Brazil Mutilation Murders 08-28-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA, Brazil (Reuters) - A Brazilian (news - web sites) sect leader and five others accused of kidnapping boys in a remote Amazon town, cutting off their genitals and sacrificially killing them went on trial on Wednesday.
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| Chinas Growth Creates a Boom for Cargo Ships 08-29-03 (Yahoo) HONG KONG, Aug. 27 Less than two years after many of the world's cargo ships lay idle and were worth no more than the scrap value of their steel, shipping lines around the world are enjoying one of their most profitable booms ever, and they have the rapid expansion of the Chinese economy to thank for it.
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| Iraq Oil Output Up, Sabotage Worries U.S. 08-29-03 (Yahoo) BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq (news - web sites)'s crude oil production is increasing but the United States is concerned by continuing acts of sabotage, a top U.S. army commander said on Thursday.
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| Gasoline Price Hits Record, but Relief Near 08-28-03 (Yahoo) HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. motorists are paying more than ever for gasoline this week, but relief is just around the corner as the summer driving season ends and refiners work out kinks that have hampered production, industry sources said on Tuesday.
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Newest messages appear on top.
08-29-03
SPAL:
<My last posting few days ago about Tricom: outlook: <grim>Bought $1.93 sold $2.25 ... held for 4 days ... will buy back in ... at some point ...
;-)
08-29-03
victorn:
wally, i always forget to ask you. Didn't you say that emb would be dropping after you returned from vacation? Any chance that this will happen anytime soon?
08-29-03
amigo latino:
My last posting few days ago about Tricom: outlook: grim<Tricom S&P Cuts Tricom Sr Unsec To 'CC' From 'CCC+'
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its local and foreign currency corporate credit and its senior unsecured debt ratings on full-service telecommunications provider Tricom S.A. to 'CC' from 'CCC+'. The outlook is negative. The downgrade reflects continued concerns regarding the company's ability or willingness to meet its coupon due Sept. 1, 2003.
As of March 31, 2003, the Dominican Republic-based company had total debt outstanding of $473 million.
Tricom has been affected by a number of factors: the acquisition and consolidation of the pay-TV operation (formalized in October 2001); costs associated with the new, advanced digital trunking services (iDEN) operation in Panama; and, more recently, as of March 31, 2003, the 36.4% year-over-year devaluation of the Dominican peso. For fiscal 2002, Tricom's EBITDA decreased by about 4.5%, causing EBITDA to cover gross interest expenses 1.2x compared with 2x for the corresponding period in fiscal 2001. As of first-quarter 2003, this trend persisted, with EBITDA decreasing by 20.4%, interest expense coverage decreasing to 1.1x from 1.5x the prior year, and its $473 million debt in relation to its last-12-month EBITDA deteriorating to 6.4x.
Tricom has filed with the SEC a registration statement with the terms of an exchange offer and consent solicitation for its $200 million, 11.375% senior notes due September 2004. "Standard & Poor's considers that the devaluation of the Dominican peso and its effect on the company's financial performance decreases the bondholders' anticipated discretion to accept the offer under the stated terms or to reject it and give the company time for an alternative refinancing plan," said credit analyst Patricia Calvo. Upon failure to meet the September coupon payment, the ratings would be lowered to 'D'. >
today's wsj
08-29-03
wally:
<... i admit that Mac beats any PC in design department> hmmmm.... quod erat demonstrandum!
08-29-03
Cheetah:
for work...practical and easy...
for play...stlye and beauty...
08-29-03
Glutt:
carib, i know you prefer Mac and you know i and many others prefer normal PC... i admit that Mac beats any PC in design department so should design be most important for me i surely would go for Mac... you probably will never agree with me because you are an Italian and Italians are all about style and fashion. when I see a group of nicely dressed people walking the streets of Vienna I am 100% sure they are Italians even before they begin talk and my guess has 99.9% accuracy always
08-29-03
Cheetah:
who needs Gold or Beef...
when you can have Britney and Christina...at the same time... http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...
doesn't get ANY better than that...
08-29-03
wally:
any beef to find here?
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_c...
08-29-03
wally:
where's the beef <Goldkäfer>?http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/a...
08-29-03
Goldbug:
Gooooooold!!!
08-29-03
carib:
WSJ<NEW YORK -- The Windows computer world may have been thrown into chaos by punishing virus and worm outbreaks in recent weeks. But, as usual, all was calm and quiet for Macintosh users.
Like the vast majority of malicious mini-programs that emerge today, August's aggressive "Sobig" virus, which clogged e-mail inboxes, and hardy "Blaster" and "Nachi" worms, which spread rapidly through Internet connections, were designed to attack computers using Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows operating system. They simply didn't work on Macs.>
;-)))
08-29-03
carib:
Petrochina above 35$...thanks Fox.
08-29-03
Glutt:
Zeph, Wally, i only politely answered Chuy's question... and i did not spot any sarcastic rhetoric in his question. sorry again ... otherwise it depends on brothels you visiting... i am not an expert in that but suppose you should avoid cheap places so save on doctor bills ...
08-29-03
Cheetah:
on a more interesting note...the best in while...http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...
WOW !!!
08-29-03
Cheetah:
bad news for mi amigo Advice55:
"America Movil SA, Latin America's biggest telecommunications provider, appears poised to take control of bankrupt Brazilian wireless carrier BCP SA as potential rival bidders cede ground"
the Mexicans are coming !!! maybe TCP is next...SELL before it's too late !!!
Advice55 don't cry later...or maybe you are talking your book...and SELLING all the time over $4 while you recommend and recommend it like crazy...
it's just a tad suspicious that when TCP fell to $3.10 a few weeks ago you were SILENT !!!
let's consult with The Nostradamus about TCP...i feel honored to be compared to such an illustrous and many times timely forecaster !!!
:-)))
08-29-03
wally:
<Chuy: Wally, what is "Dutch Disease"?, please> my interpretation: a disease you catch after visiting several brothels in Amsterdam and forgot to use condoms :~)
08-29-03
wally:
<Zephyr: <password for what> Colores file> check your mail.
08-29-03
nautilus:
seeing hipo bid 45.xx - not bad at all.
08-29-03
Zephyr:
<Dutch disease> Thanks Glutt, I thought it had something to do with hanging out with prostitutes in coffee bars.
08-29-03
SPAL:
TDR schtock position now closed ... will reconsider after earnings [out 9/2 before market opens].;-)
08-29-03
Glutt:
Dutch Disease is understood as ”The deindustrialization of a nation's economy that occurs when the discovery of a natural resource raises the value of that nation's currency, making manufactured goods less competitive with other nations, increasing imports and decreasing exports.” similar definition on http://www.investorwords.com/cgi-bi...
08-29-03
Zephyr:
<password for what> Colores file
08-29-03
Glutt:
<I've been too lazy to get the latest password. > if it is not a big secret, password for what?
08-29-03
nautilus:
Wally <hippo in a zoo> how much Laga in the morning? I do not speak of tons of fat but tons of $$$$$ we have already made in this one :)).
08-29-03
Zephyr:
<may have a file of Brady % backing in EM Bonds> I've been too lazy to get the latest password. Here are the %'s for collateral for the main bradies.Principal
Arg Par&Disc 100% guaranteed 3/31/23 PV 32.784
Brz Par&Disc 100% 4/15/24 PV 30.833
Bulg Disc 100% 7/28/2024 PV 30.272
DomRep Disc 100% 8/30/24 30.118
Nigeria Par 100% 11/15/20 PV 38.104
Panama Par & Disc100% 7/17/26 PV27.217
Peru DIsc&Par 100% 3/7/27 26.209
Philippine Par 100% 6/1/2018 44.715
Poland Par 100% 10/27/24 29.847
Venz Disc&Par 100% 3/31/20 39.699
Interest
Arg Par, no int guarantee left
Arg Disc original int guarantee was 8%, now 4.998% left, PV 4.90
Brz Par 6% Int Guarantee, PV 5.97
Brz Disc 8% Int, PV 7.73
Nigeria Par 6.25% PV 6.214
Panama Par 4.95%, PV 4.906
Panama Disc 7.50% PV7.262
Peru Disc 3.50 PV 3.47
Peru Par 1.50% PV1.50
Phil Par 7.583%, PV 7.52
Poland Par No coupon gteed
Venz Disc 11.375% PV 10.888
Ven Par 7.875% PV 7.823
08-29-03
Chuy:
Wally, what is "Dutch Disease"?, please.
08-29-03
Glutt:
c-banker <So keep your fingers crossed :-)) > i do
08-29-03
wally:
<zephyr> i support <chuy's> request. it would be very interesting to have an update on UST value backing Bradies.
08-29-03
Glutt:
The problem is that often IMF money finance irresponsible politicians and imprudent commitments or loyalty to US. it is not a secret that IMF money went to finance reelection of Boris Yeltsin and that so called young reformer Chubais (most talented thief of Yeltsin team) was openly telling IMF in 1996 that IMF money was needed to reelect Yeltsin and against Zyuganov & communists. Chubais even admitted this openly and very cynically, which was traditional for him, during an interview with him for one of English documentary shown on Russian TV later after resignation of Yeltsin … IMHO IMF was always a politically driven prostitute serving US interests world wide… the difference between IMF approach to Argentina or Ukraine and Turkey well illustrates what all story is about. Sometimes IMF was even lobbying doubtful laws or reforms in some EM for its main patron the US. strange but on IMF board it seems no one has a say except US, at least seems like this.
08-29-03
wally:
<Com dolar a 2.80.....> GO <BRL> GO! :~))
08-29-03
wally:
<nautilus: besides carib and myself, who holds hipo?> i saw a hippo in a zoo once but i did not try to hold it.
08-29-03
C-Banker:
<Glutt><… will join it with next downtick>. Unless the Turks be invited to control the northern (kurdish) part of Iraq, I don't see much probability for them to help the US out. So keep your fingers crossed :-))
08-29-03
amigo latino:
DR bonds: DR will (most likely) get the IMF agreement—DR will agree to any condition imposed by IMF , including of passing any new laws(as the govt party controls the senado and the camara de diputados. Implementation? The peso will stabilize for a while or even appreciate slightly.
However there is a widespread lack of confidence (business and non-business) in the govt. If the current President gets renominated by his party for the second term, it could possibly be construed as bad news for the economy and the peso could depreciate
08-29-03
Glutt:
Probably better be Nostradamus or Cheetah than anonymous<e>, ah?Meanwhile i am next victim of Turkish pessimism (previous was opti), now Erdogan 30 trades for 109 ask… too good to be true but i lost a bit of my game, surprising is that IMF had no other choice but to give Turks huge rollover… apparently US hopes vely much that Turks will help them in Iraq… though who would help then Turks??? Funny, everyone knows Turkey is bankrupt and everyone is buying… collective madness… will join it with next downtick, which surely should come.
08-29-03
Chuy:
Zephyr, I was told you may have a file of Brady % backing in EM Bonds. If so, could you please post it at Colores Files?. Would be much appretiated.
08-29-03
amigo latino:
<Glut:…..(IMF)becomes often a political intsurment in hands of the US IMHO. >Often the US contol(or high degree of influence) of IMF is revealed in an embarassing way. The cordinator of the reelection committee of the current president of theDom Rep has announced publicly that the reelection committee will manage the 100 million US dollar social program put together with the monies of IMF and IADB(Inter Am Dev bk).
Denials were put forth by the President and the IADB But nobody believes that the reelection committee would not manage the program! US and IADB love the current president—US in gratitude for the 300 troops sent to Iraq by DR and Julio Iglesias(IADB President) is a ,long time friend of Mejia(Pres of DR).
08-29-03
Glutt:
c-banker... you know the coalition of willing is making quick progress…after finishing kissing classes they will move to digging …and Ukraine should increase export of its main commodity, feminine, to various brothels in West Europe so extra proceeds can be allocated to help US cover surging cost of rebuilding Iraq…
08-29-03
amigo latino:
<FBI to Arrest Teen
In Virus Attack
WASHINGTON -- The Federal Bureau of Investigation has identified a teenager as the alleged author of the damaging Blaster worm unleashed on the Internet and plans to arrest him early Friday, a U.S. official confirmed Thursday.
The 18-year-old, whose name and hometown weren't available, was accused of writing one version of the Blaster infection, which spread quickly across the Internet weeks ago, the official said.
Further details were expected to be disclosed Friday by the FBI and U.S. attorney's office in Seattle, which has been leading the investigation. A news conference was scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern time.
A spokesman for the U.S. attorney's office in Seattle said there had been "no arrest made in this matter yet." He declined to comment further.
A witness reportedly saw the teen testing the Blaster worm and called authorities, the official said……..>
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB...
08-29-03
ozymiani:
<Nostradamus and Cheetah are the same person>: naahhhh. Nostradamus is too much fun.
08-29-03
ozymiani:
< Advice55: <Praise the Lord> You shall never speak the name of the lord in vain! >Who cares? I don't believe in the unperceptible guy.
But You, Sir, who believe in Anybody (from Lula to Technical Analysis), how do you dare writing the Lord's name with a lowercase "l"?
Nostradamus, go get this choir boy!
08-29-03
nautilus:
besides carib and myself, who holds hipo?
08-29-03
Zephyr:
<Most of the people here know that Nostradamus and Cheetah are the same person.> Most of us suspected it for awhile. Then one day, Mr. Cheetah, perhaps under the influence of a little alcohol or distracted by one of his diamond covered biuties, posted some Nostradamus style BS forgetting he was using his Cheetah handle. quite funny
08-29-03
anonymous:
Most of the people here know that Nostradamus and Cheetah are the same person. Cheetah started this clownerie several years ago.
08-29-03
C-Banker:
<Glutt><financial power of so called new Europe...> You mean Good Old Europe can lean back, zip, puf, clip and watch ??
08-29-03
Advice55:
<Praise the Lord>You shall never speak the name of the lord in vain!
08-29-03
Advice55:
ozy, you were missing here...
You have been gone for quite some time now...
Identified yourself with nostradamus? hehehe
He is a little late, about 4 years only....
08-29-03
Glutt:
C-banker, you underestimate financial power of so called new Europe... !!! hahaha…
08-29-03
C-Banker:
<the Bush administration is acknowledging that the mounting costs are too great for the U.S. alone to bear> Ha !!! They start the B/S and than they want others to pay for it ? NO WAY, HOSAY (=José)! :-))
08-29-03
Glutt:
IMF has a problem with its policies because implementation of many of its demands usually requires legislature work and represents hidden intrusion into sovereignty. That is why governments willing to get IMF loans often find themselves in conflicts with domestic legislature who do not want to make unpopular and sometimes may be doubtful from domestic viewpoint decisions. Naturally IMF cannot openly interfere into sovereign issues but it does that through making loans dependent on relevant laws and approvals. It will be enough to remember sunflower seeds topic between IMF and Ukraine or tax topic between Russia and IMF back in 1999. Another illustration of IMF intrusion can be Turkey.This is not because PhDs are circa Dracula relatives but because IMF role worldwide has changes 200% whereas policy concept remain unvisited and is decided from case to case. IMF is itself in deepest fundamental crisis and becomes often a political intsurment in hands of the US IMHO.
08-29-03
ozymiani:
<08-28-03 The Nostradamus>Praise the Lord!
Finally a serious Nutter on this website!
Go ahead, Nostradamus, show them what a real psychotic can do (as opposed to these plain fools).
08-29-03
Glutt:
Gaucho <Carib: I agree, Brazil's tax burden is excessive. This is a consensus even among the Brazilian govt. Moreover, a disproportional amount of the tax revenues goes to the well-off-- effectively concentrating wealth even more. The IMF, I am sure, also agrees with all this. However, other than setting fiscal targets, the IMF has no official say on taxation or public spending. The most it can do is to encourage reforms that will in time reduce and improve the quality of public spending, such as the pension reform.> you surprise me, surely IMF does not define or approve tax policy, this is sovereign issue. What IMF can do and does is expressing its attitude to this or that measure and that counts during approval process. So EM governments fighting for IMF lifeline tend to dance sometimes to the tune of IMF though sometimes as we know conflict happens on legislature level…PS: if you want prove me wrong on that explicit statement about IMF do not waste your time. otherwise speaking of IMF role you should know that IMF NEVER was entitled to stabilize debt to GDP and you may not find it in charter documents of IMF. Also, assume you right about IMF stabilizing debt to GDP would mean official policy of debt bail outs … however somehow this is the policy largely objected by all IMF shareholders. In fact IMF aims to help clear sharp imbalances of the Balance of Payments and stabilize currencies and monetary aggregates, and later also help cure fiscal imbalances of transition periods if i am not mistaken.
as regrads tax burden in EM countries here i believe we all agree and this is what matters.
08-29-03
Glutt:
Gaucho <Glutt: the IMF says nothing about the tax burden.> sorry but you are not very right. IMF cares about tax burden and taxes and tax collection as long as they form revenue side which is critical for fiscal balance result. IMF was engaged in several discussions with EM borrowers regarding tax burden and other tax subjects. Surely because revenue matters as much as spending for balance and because tax component is usually highest as regards revenue composition. <All the IMF cares about is stabilizaing debt/GDP, which is achieved thru fiscal surpluses.> partially true because IMF cares about sustainability of monetary policy and balance of payments and relevant factors influencing them. Debt topic became a new challenge for IMF worldwide policies as that triggers a dispute about bail outs and moral hazard.
<Unfortunately for Brazil, fiscal surpluses have come by way of higher taxes, rather than reduced expenditures.> usual for many EM under IMF patronage, I would say this happens as a rule with very few exceptions.
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