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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, September 4, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Small Businesses, Big Growth 09-04-03 (NY Times) AMBRIDGE, Mass. — Believe it or not, the little guys in the so-called outer boroughs could help revive New York City's economy. Small businesses have emerged as a strong growth sector in the city — and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg should find new ways to support them.

U.S. Productivity Soars in 2nd Quarter 09-04-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - The productivity of U.S. companies in the second quarter posted the biggest gain in more than a year as businesses produced more with fewer workers. New claims for unemployment benefits climbed last week to the highest level since the middle of July.

Economic growth sparks recovery hopes 09-04-03 (bayarea.com) The U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent in the second quarter, slightly faster than expected but enough to fuel hopes for a stronger recovery through the rest of the year, particularly for Silicon Valley's hard-pressed tech companies.

World Bank sees 5% growth for poorer countries 09-04-03 (Financial Times) Growth in developing countries is set to accelerate to almost 5 per cent next year, close to the levels reached at the peak of the global economic boom in 2000, according to the World Bank.

Mounting Troubles Fall in Atlanta Mayors Lap 09-04-03 (NY Times) TLANTA, Sept. 1 — In her first year as mayor of Atlanta, Shirley Clarke Franklin closed two budget deficits totaling more than $100 million, laid off hundreds of workers, raised property taxes nearly 50 percent and, in a City Hall that had been widely attacked as paralyzed, insular and infused with cronyism, quickly earned a reputation for openness and professionalism.

Fed sees an improving US economy 09-04-03 (Financial Times) The US economy continued to strengthen in July and August, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday amid brightening prospects for recovery in other leading economies.

Bishop Donal Lamont, 92, Africa Missionary, Dies 09-03-03 (NY Times) ishop Donal Lamont, a Roman Catholic missionary who fought efforts to create an apartheid state in the former British colony of Southern Rhodesia — now Zimbabwe — after it declared its independence from Britain in 1965, died on Aug. 14 in Dublin. He was 92.

LATIN AMERICA

Latin American state terror finally called to account 09-04-03 (guardian.co.uk) We are experiencing technical problems and are operating a restricted service. Please return to this page regularly to read the latest UK and international news. We are working to restore normal service and apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Brazils Gil, a Minister for the Masses 09-04-03 (Washington Post) MIAMI, Sept. 2 -- What a difference, oh, say, 40 years make. Brazilian singer and songwriter Gilberto Gil, pop superstar, cultural rabble-rouser and social activist, once jailed and exiled, is now o senhor ministro -- Minister of Culture of Brazil.

Argentina rebounds 09-03-03 (rnw.nl) A surprising turnaround in Argentina: after years of economic malaise, the country has suddenly produced some remarkably sound growth figures. Only last year, Argentina's Gross National Product shrank by around 11 per cent. Next year, though, growth is expected to touch at least three percent and possibly even six to eight percent.

Legal snags hit Argentine purge 09-03-03 (BBC) Attempts to prosecute members of Argentina's former military junta have got mired in legal confusion, with courts issuing seemingly contradictory orders relating to long-standing amnesty laws.

Venezuela Court: Chavez Ruling Was Forged 09-03-03 (Yahoo) CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's high court late Monday denied ever ruling that President Hugo Chavez couldn't run if there are new elections, saying a statement purportedly from the court making that claim was a forgery.

Argentina and IMF lock horns as deal expires 09-03-03 (Financial Times) Argentina on Monday began life without the International Monetary Fund as its interim agreement expired amid increasingly frustrated efforts to strike a replacement deal.

Brazils Gilberto Gil: Minister of Cool 09-03-03 (Yahoo) SAO PAULO, Brazil (Reuters) - Not many government ministers wear their hair in dreadlocks but not many are also world-renowned music stars like Brazil's Gilberto Gil, who will be lauded at the Latin Grammy awards show on Wednesday.

RUSSIA

Russia, Saudi Arabia Sign Oil Agreements 09-03-03 (Yahoo) MOSCOW - Russia and Saudi Arabia — the world's largest oil exporters — signed oil industry cooperation agreements Tuesday during a landmark visit to Moscow by the Arab kingdom's ruler.

Saudi Prince, Putin Discuss Oil Exports 09-03-03 (Yahoo) MOSCOW - Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah met Russia's president Tuesday on the first visit to post-Soviet Russia by a Saudi leader, aimed at coordinating oil exports and soothing Russian concerns about alleged funding of Chechen rebels by Saudi charities.

ASIA

Philippine president blames desperate politicians 09-04-03 (Financial Times) Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the embattled president of the Philippines, on Wednesday blamed the political turmoil in her country on "desperate" politicians who have already started campaigning for next year's elections.

Philippines intelligence chief quits 09-03-03 (BBC) The chief of army intelligence in the Philippines has resigned after last weekend's failed mutiny by 300 soldiers.

AFRICA

For Schooling, a Reverse Emigration to Africa 09-04-03 (NY Times) WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 — Najima and Nayaba Bawa were despondent when their parents first raised the subject of sending them home to Ghana.

OIL PRICES

Energy Dept. Probing Sharp Rise in Gasoline Prices 09-04-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham (news - web sites) said on Wednesday the Energy Department has launched an "internal inquiry" into the jump in gasoline prices that recently reached an all-time high.

Newest messages appear on top.

09-04-03 PaxWax: <<<Advice555> When the times favor prosperity>, and when leadership is in the hands of the broad-minded>, supreme good fortune results.> Very neatly put, <Adverse555>. Where did you get that bit of philosophy from, a Chinese fortune cookie?

09-04-03 PaxWax: <<<Prof. Dr.> "W"> de Schwobe> or in the common parlance <"Swabians"> ~ it may be interesting to know that my little corner of the world, Galitzien or Galicia, was founded and ruled by Germanic invaders called <"Suevos"> who are none other than our Swabian friends. The dialects have become rather different in the intervening centuries,

09-04-03 Advice55: Substantial progress and increasing prosperity is exhilirating, as long as you go with the flow while it lasts and keep the interests of others in mind. Like white water on a river, periods of increase are often of short duration; it furthers one, therefore, to shoot the rapids now, while the opportunity is there.

Leadership in times of opportunity involves commitment to the needs of one's cohorts or dependents. Only by realizing that to lead is to serve, can a leader fortify his or her position to bring about a lasting increase in prosperity. In a time of general increase, those who contribute most directly to the common good will achieve the greatest rewards.

When opportunities for increase arise, supreme good fortune comes to those who act swiftly and boldly, while avoiding the trap of letting their actions be merely self-serving. If you aspire to a position of prominence, the most enduring strategy is to work to raise the tide of your entire community or company, rather than to try to swim upstream on your own.

When the times favor prosperity, and when leadership is in the hands of the broad-minded, supreme good fortune results.

09-04-03 Alexander: thanks Foxy !

;-))))

09-04-03 manya: Is Brazil the next to be upgraded? " Standard & Poor's assign African nation <Ghana a B+ rating>, or four levels short of investment grade, and by Fitch to give <Cameroon a B rating>, five steps from investment grade. The ratings for Ghana and Cameroon are in line with Brazil's.``Ratings agencies are always behind the curve on upgrades and downgrades.''``The rating on Brazil is very low, lower than it should be. The market has Brazil risk at about 180 basis points more than the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Debt Index spread over U.S. Treasuries. That's near historic lows and suggests the market is ahead of the agencies.''``Our rating should be a bit better. The size of our economy, the management of the economy, the preservation ofcontracts and the efforts of the government to get the country through several problems should all argue for at least a positive debt outlook.''``Its a bit unfair, to be at the same level as these other countries.''

09-04-03 manya: LATIN $ SOVEREIGN CLOSING COMMENTARY (Volume 1.535 billion) Mkt had another good day as the tax reform vote passed the lower house of the Brazilian Congress late Wed night.Long end of Brazil curve rallied 1 1/2pts with spreads on the 30's 25bps tighter and the 40's 20bps tighter. C's were up 1pt on heavy buying by locals (one in particular bought 62mm @low of the day) Venezuela was under some pressure as there is a rumour that a re -opening of the 10's is imminent. Prices of the 10's and 27's finished unchanged after having traded up @ 1/2pt early in the day. Mexico kept pace with the Treasury mkt on very low volume.

09-04-03 ruspan: Glutt:<ruspan, ti nehoroshi chelovek, tak ti ne pozvonil kak priechal & mi ne smogli uvidetsia. vstretisia li ti s Opti? > Da, Ya rediska, no bil jestoko nakazan: kogda ya pozvonil Opti, vy uxe uvidelis y ty smilsia na istoricheskuyu rodinu, a potom ya sebe sorval spinu i ostatok provalialsia doma (!!!), s Opti toje ne vtretilsia v rezultate, budu jdat valinogo dnoia rojdeniya teper.

09-04-03 ruspan: Carib:<Ruspan: still expecting a left wing landslide? > I must recognize that inspite living in the place for the last 20+ years, I have no idea now: there is no left left after Madrid scandal, my friends who where in the parliament time ago have now left politics (and some say that even drug traffic looks like a more honest option now), people who voted socialists have no intention to vote and I already have heared the opinion that voting is pointless.. unless you are in real estate buisness. After all, PP government may be apropiate for a country where a mid sized house 30 km from the capital is sellng for 1.090.000 eu, aren't we all millionaries here ? :-)

09-04-03 Fox: For those interested in US Trasuries via ETF (Exchange Traded Funds), look up SHY 1-3 years, IEF 7-10 years & TLT 20+ Years.

09-04-03 Fox: <GGAL, BFR....

Argie banks up, any interesting news ??> Majoraly Voodoo Alex & the fact that they were quite oversold. Only news is that Congress approved the Law that establishes the compensation of the <Assymetrical Compensation> loans carried a lower index than deposits and that loan portfolio increased during August. But as my GrandMa use to say <Agua con azucar>

09-04-03 Alexander: GGAL, BFR....

Argie banks up, any interesting news ??

09-04-03 Fox: <Italian & German retail Investors> This is sad, very sad, if we get burned with a Bond (as we did), Ok no problem we deserve it!! But these guys probably bought this stuff thinking it carried the same risk German or Italian debt has.

09-04-03 victorn: carib, ...but not in the rebel territories, catalonia and basque country. Not a chance that the PP would win in either. :-))

09-04-03 victorn: carib, most likely mariano will win. Aznar has had the decency to step down from both, govt and from the party (knowing that he would win again), something which is very unusual. That will help mariano win, besides the fact that he has a good reputation. Politically, aznar is on the right of mariano, so m should be appealing to moderates who would not vote for aznar.

09-04-03 wally: <Only addendum is italian <simple minds> know enough math to understand the yield of BTP> i do believe that <carib> because no matter what simple examples i give, most germans (argyholders) have one credo only and that is "LORD, ANYTHING BUT A HAIRCUT OF THE PRINCIPAL!" of course there are also the simple minded hardliners who insist that Argentina should sell land to Chile or the United States to pay off her debt, in full "AS IT WAS AGREED ACCORDING TO GERMAN LAW AND GERMAN JURISDICTION". i am just waiting for someone to suggest that Uruguay or Paraguay should buy that land. there are even postings that 4-5% is quite a fair deal because AAA €UR denominated bonds pay even less!

09-04-03 carib: Spain. <The PP ruling council, plainly at Mr Aznar's behest, has now picked Mariano Rajoy, the senior of the government's two deputy prime ministers, to lead the party into battle as candidate to be the next prime minister. With opinion polls putting the PP some six percentage points ahead of the Socialists, Mr Rajoy has at least a fair chance of getting the job.> Ruspan: still expecting a left wing landslide?

09-04-03 carib: Wally: what you report confirms my theory. Only addendum is italian <simple minds> know enough math to understand the yield of BTP.

09-04-03 wally: <simple minded retail investor will buy the idea of no cut in principal but with a loss of total 50% NPV through lower interest and longer duration. The formula which Lerrick picked for ABRA <<<(might be after he talked to Italians?)>>>> not really <glut>. i am participating on a daily basis in a board where exclusively german argy-bondholders post. the majority of them will agree to ANYTHING as long as the principal is not cut. no matter in what kind of simple maths you explain to them that it does not make any bloody difference where the loss of value comes from. it's like talking to a stonewall or trying to reason with a rock, they just don't get it.

09-04-03 carib: <sea urchins> @37,75%!

09-04-03 Advice55: EMT is the good one to go short when goes up in Brazil, like today...

TCP will needle 21 50 today or tomorrow and last times that happened...

well, you go there and look at what happened...

Look what happened to TNE when the needle came in... 21 with 50 needle...

09-04-03 carib: Glutt: yes, I did not sell my Arg sov bought in the fall of 01. I should have traded them for non-sovs, as Savo did, but I bought the non sovs without selling the sovs.

09-04-03 Advice55: TCP! Needle!

21 with 50 needle today or tomorrow!!!

BUMMMMMMMM!!!!!

09-04-03 carib: VRSO getting close to 5$! (not bad for SPAL followers who loaded @1.25$)

09-04-03 savonarola: """

El OCP bombeará 200 mil barriles

El Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) concluirá mañana el período de pruebas, con un embarque de 400 mil barriles de crudo que efectuará la empresa Repsol-YPF, en el puerto marítimo de Balao, provincia de Esmeraldas.

Repsol-YPF, una de las cinco compañías socias del OCP, puso los 400 mil barriles de crudo para que se realice la fase de comisionado. Terminado este proceso, la compañía llevará su petróleo hacia la refinería "La Pampilla", de su propiedad, a través del buque "Cabo Vírgenes".

De esta manera el OCP quedará listo para iniciar la operación continua, que se daría cuando las compañías llenen todos los tanques.

Durante esta última fase se transportaría alrededor de 200 mil barriles de crudo, hasta que las compañías socias hagan las respectivas inversiones y aumenten el volumen de transporte, ya que el oleoducto nuevo puede evacuar hasta 450 mil barriles.

Simón Bustamante, uno de los directores de la compañía OCP, indicó que ya cuentan con todos los permisos, aunque ellos son provisionales pero que no afectarán el normal desenvolvimiento del nuevo oleoducto.

Bustamante confió en que los permisos definitivos serán expedidos a tiempo, y pronosticó que a partir de enero de 2004 el bombeo de crudo por el OCP será normal.

El funcionario de la compañía OCP, administradora del nuevo oleoducto, también aseguró que las operaciones de éste se mantendrán con petróleo que explotan las socias.

En cuanto al crudo del Estado, Bustamante aseguró que las autoridades aún no han definido si va por el OCP o por el Sistema del Oleoducto Transecuatoriano (SOTE), pero ratificó que las socias pondrán la parte de petróleo que les corresponde. <"Es obligación nuestra llenar la capacidad de transporte", precisó.>

AEC, la que más aporta

La compañía Alberta Energy Company (AEC), es la que mayor cantidad de crudo aportará del total que se transportará.

Sin embargo, Bustamante explicó que no existe un cupo fijo, sino un referencial, que tratará de ser cumplido por cada una de las socias del nuevo oleoducto.

AEC aportaría con alrededor de 70 mil barriles, y luego se ubicaría la empresa Repsol-YPF. (LAGUP)

Tras las inversiones

Con el inicio de operaciones del OCP, se espera que las compañías inicien un plan agresivo de inversiones con el fin de aumentar la producción.

Las inversiones se estiman entre <$2 mil 500 millones y $3 mil millones>.

La tarifa que cobrará el OCP por transportar un barril de petróleo es de alrededor de $2. El contrato establece que el Estado, si decide llevar por ese oleoducto el petróleo, tendrá una tarifa de entre $1,50 y $1,75 por barril.""

The above clearly contradicts our beloved anals. According to <Barrionuevo> and his accolytes, the OCP was built for <decorative> purposes. A group of companies decided to borrow from a group of banks US$ 1.4 bn to construct a hugo tube accross Ecuador as a demonstration of the <artistic> ability of the Ecuatorians. Much like the heads in the Isle of Pascua, so that beings coming from other planets can appreciate what Ecuatorians can do when they organise themselves.

Given that I do not believe in such <Barrionuevo> theory, and that in my opinion the OCP was built because some private sector companies have oil to extract as long as it could be exported, it gives me comfort to read that after all the anals <imbecility>.. the OCP is being used.

09-04-03 carib: Leo: there is a misunderstanding: I do not expect anything very good out of Frankestein/Ladronvagna. I just said that if retail holders are offered a bond with coupon in line with BTP, I think they will take it. This can be done either with a step-up, or a Libor+XX floater. My main problem is that it is impossible to make a deal with a counterpart essentially politically unwilling to pay. When there is will, there is a way. No will, no way. IMHO.

09-04-03 Glutt: carib, that is the point... a 50% haircut may be accepted by many after ÀRG scare of 70 or 80% and as regards retail you know you are right (I guess I admitted this dozen of times but let me do this 101 time). I am sure that not only Italian but also German and Austrian simple minded retail investor will buy the idea of no cut in principal but with a loss of total 50% NPV through lower interest and longer duration. The formula which Lerrick picked for ABRA (might be after he talked to Italians?)… funny indeed. as regards your ARG cost 50 - are you still holding those bonds bought in 40s at the end of 2001?

09-04-03 leo: Carib I just don't think they will give a 6% coupon without a haircut....maybe yes but step up starting from 2.5 and going up vely vely slowly.....

09-04-03 carib: Leo: and then there is the issue of IDU (which I would expect to be haircutted and capitalized)...

09-04-03 carib: Leo: is a 30 year BTP yielding 3,5%?

09-04-03 leo: Carib an Argy 3.5 percent bond due 2033 will have a price of 30...70% loss...or am I missing something?

09-04-03 carib: Glutt: once again, IMHO, if italin pensioners re offered by Argy a new bond with no principal haircut and a coupon in line with BPT (=50/60% haircut in NPV) they will take it happily. As my Argy sov cost is below 50, a 50% haircut (on interest) is fine with me too.

09-04-03 leo: Turkey 30 110.5\111.....flying....

09-04-03 amigo latino: <"It's evident that for Argentina, it's important to have a reasonable fiscal policy...If you want a successful debt restructuring...yes - you will need stronger primary surpluses in the years ahead," Perry said, though he also praised the disciplined fiscal policies Argentina has run in the last 20 months……..>World Bank's Guillermo Perry (chief economist )said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT...

...If you want a successful debt restructuring ?

09-04-03 amigo latino: Error: should read :< there will be a concealed subsidy geven to Argentina not to demand not-too-an outrageous haircut.>

09-04-03 amigo latino: <Glutt: Fox, is not it funny? IMF since sometime advocated burden sharing for private creditors but now it seems time for multilaterals to take their portion of pain?…………………..>

IMHO, G-7 will strike a deal with Argentina—there will be a concealed subsidy geven to Argentina to demand not-too-an outrageous haircut.

IMF is strange: They are against subsidies for most countries. but if you are part of the coaltion, they ignore the issue: RD, a day after receiving IMF cheque announced free bus rides(on Govt buses)on every Sunday!……….Some say it is a part of the reelection campaign of the country President whose popularity is very low.

09-04-03 SPAL: CGO ... float tightening up ... getting ready ...

09-04-03 wally: <amateur> have not bought any AMR. just saw a brief report yesterday that 'schtock' is up more than 800%.

09-04-03 Amateur: Wally, have you bot any AMR bond? which one?

09-04-03 amigo latino: < Nautiius: Uru was a nicer bet when they were in the low 40, imho……….>

It was. I passed the chance (willingness to pay >> ability to pay).

Informator was very bullish and he was proven right. It would be interesting to know his new favourite!

09-04-03 wally: <Uru was a nicer bet when they were in the low 40> well, we have to howl with the wolves or bet on schweinkram like AMR.

09-04-03 Fox: <Uru was a nicer bet when they were in the low 40, imho. Those were they days.> We are sounding like old men (Im @ least)...remember the Pinche28 @30 (Alex & Wally bought under that price)...remember the Prin @ 7.... :-(((

09-04-03 Fox: <is not it funny? IMF since sometime advocated burden sharing for private creditors but now it seems time for multilaterals to take their portion of pain?>Yeahh!! In the Uru's particular case I think this guy is preparing the playfiled for 2005 were they would take office, as the private debt has been taken care of they will tell Multilaterals to wait...wait...wait and then wait some more. No nominal haircut but they better start practizing Yoga and wait.

09-04-03 nautilus: wally <placed an order> Uru was a nicer bet when they were in the low 40, imho. Those were they days.

09-04-03 Glutt: Fox, is not it funny? IMF since sometime advocated burden sharing for private creditors but now it seems time for multilaterals to take their portion of pain? If happens this will become most funny thing ever happened in EM… IMF advocating haircuts for private credit will now feel the pain…

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