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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, September 5, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Ethiopia hits out at IMF 09-05-03 (BBC) Ethiopia's prime minister has hit out at continuing pressure from international financial organisations to push forward the country's privatisation process.

Bush Counterattacks Over Struggling Economy 09-05-03 (Yahoo) KANSAS CITY, Mo. (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) on Thursday launched a vigorous defense of his economic policies, firing back at Democrats who say his tax cuts failed to spur job growth and have bloated the budget deficit.

Small Businesses, Big Growth 09-04-03 (NY Times) AMBRIDGE, Mass. — Believe it or not, the little guys in the so-called outer boroughs could help revive New York City's economy. Small businesses have emerged as a strong growth sector in the city — and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg should find new ways to support them.

U.S. Productivity Soars in 2nd Quarter 09-04-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - The productivity of U.S. companies in the second quarter posted the biggest gain in more than a year as businesses produced more with fewer workers. New claims for unemployment benefits climbed last week to the highest level since the middle of July.

Economic growth sparks recovery hopes 09-04-03 (bayarea.com) The U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent in the second quarter, slightly faster than expected but enough to fuel hopes for a stronger recovery through the rest of the year, particularly for Silicon Valley's hard-pressed tech companies.

World Bank sees 5% growth for poorer countries 09-04-03 (Financial Times) Growth in developing countries is set to accelerate to almost 5 per cent next year, close to the levels reached at the peak of the global economic boom in 2000, according to the World Bank.

Mounting Troubles Fall in Atlanta Mayors Lap 09-04-03 (NY Times) TLANTA, Sept. 1 — In her first year as mayor of Atlanta, Shirley Clarke Franklin closed two budget deficits totaling more than $100 million, laid off hundreds of workers, raised property taxes nearly 50 percent and, in a City Hall that had been widely attacked as paralyzed, insular and infused with cronyism, quickly earned a reputation for openness and professionalism.

LATIN AMERICA

Truth, Justice & Reconciliation In Latin America 09-05-03 (news.findlaw.com) In Latin America, now as in the past, reconciliation can mean different things to different people.

Its cool to be a cowboy in Brazils Wild West 09-05-03 (csmonitor.com) BARRETOS, BRAZIL – The streets are filled with cowboys and cowgirls, and the warm breezes carry the aroma of barbecued meat. Over in the stadium, the bulls are running wild, while in the midway, speakers blast music about big hearts, broken hearts, and achy-breaky hearts.

Latin American state terror finally called to account 09-04-03 (guardian.co.uk) We are experiencing technical problems and are operating a restricted service. Please return to this page regularly to read the latest UK and international news. We are working to restore normal service and apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Brazils Gil, a Minister for the Masses 09-04-03 (Washington Post) MIAMI, Sept. 2 -- What a difference, oh, say, 40 years make. Brazilian singer and songwriter Gilberto Gil, pop superstar, cultural rabble-rouser and social activist, once jailed and exiled, is now o senhor ministro -- Minister of Culture of Brazil.

ASIA

Chinas yuan tops summit agenda 09-05-03 (BBC) The weakness of China's currency will be at the top of the agenda for finance ministers from the 21 member states of Apec, the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation group.

Philippine president blames desperate politicians 09-04-03 (Financial Times) Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the embattled president of the Philippines, on Wednesday blamed the political turmoil in her country on "desperate" politicians who have already started campaigning for next year's elections.

AFRICA

Defusing Africas Killer Lakes 09-05-03 (smithsonianmag.si.edu) In a remote region of Cameroon, an international team of scientists takes extraordinary steps to prevent the recurrence of a deadly natural disaster

For Schooling, a Reverse Emigration to Africa 09-04-03 (NY Times) WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 — Najima and Nayaba Bawa were despondent when their parents first raised the subject of sending them home to Ghana.

OIL PRICES

Energy Dept. Probing Sharp Rise in Gasoline Prices 09-04-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham (news - web sites) said on Wednesday the Energy Department has launched an "internal inquiry" into the jump in gasoline prices that recently reached an all-time high.

Newest messages appear on top.

09-05-03 wally: <<i recently paid € 1.233 for business class from €urope to the Far East (return flight) and could have flown the same route in economy for € 480!> probably because you have fat mileage account and like senator class status, true Herr Prof. Dr. Wally ?> NOT true <comrade glut>! i used an airline which i last flew more than ten years ago. no FT mileage, no nothing, just a ticket bought through my german travel agency.

09-05-03 SPAL: < Spal, does this mean an alarming sell on VRSO in your opinion or just hold through the storm and see the sunshine… > I don't see an alarm ... IF it weakens it should settle at around $4.50 ... the NASTY might show some weakness also, but the bull will bounce all boats back as the year plays out ... with VRSO the Q is now how high is high enough ... a nice question to ask ...

09-05-03 Glutt: Interesting guy this MolAnus, and as regards MolAnus Savo may like to comment…

09-05-03 wally: <glut> did you look at hotel prices in <Bridgetown> and surroundings???

09-05-03 manya: Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela may sell as much as $3 billion of international bonds after meetings with investors in London and the U.S., Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega said in aninterview in London. ABN Amro Bank NV and Citigroup Inc. are organizing the meetings with investors. Venezuela also may exchange as much as $3.5 billion ofexisting debt for cash or new securities, Nobrega said.

09-05-03 wally: <leo: Where is Philly schweinkram master gone????> he is on a cruise.

09-05-03 wally: <Garden Beach Resort rated 4 star but should be 5 star> on thay <hase> has found an offer for november. two weeks including flight, hotel, breakfast, transfers = €UR 948.- from Munich with Qatar Airways, an eiline he used last year and was vey satisfied.

09-05-03 leo: Where is Philly schweinkram master gone????

09-05-03 Glutt: Spal, does this mean an alarming sell on VRSO in your opinion or just hold through the storm and see the sunshine…

09-05-03 manya: MOLANO: "The Argentine government completed most of the negotiations with the IMF. In the end, the IMF had to accept Argentina's terms. The Argentine government agreed to a fiscal surplus of 3% of GDP in 2004, way short of the 4.25% demanded by the IMF. The Fund hopes that the Argentine government will raise the surplus to 3.25% of GDP in 2005 and 3.5% of GDP in 2006. However, the Argentine government is under no commitment to comply. The government refused to provide any additional compensation for the asymmetric pesofication that was forced on the banks, and it refused to incorporate any language about an increase in tariffs. The U.S. Treasury is pushing the IMF to complete the agreement as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the Europeans want the IMF to play hardball. However, it seems that they will lose. With the clock running out until the September 9 deadline, and the Kirchner Administration playing a deft hand of poker, the IMF has little chance of squeezing any concessions out of the Argentines. The new agreement is good news for investors, since it leaves more resources for the government to service its debt. We expect that the government will make a major announcement in Dubai, and that Argentine bond prices will continue to outperform in the near term."

09-05-03 SPAL: VRSO - Carib - note that it is up in pre-market - if this is the tail of the recent rally it will climb until 10AM ish that is around the best time to look for intra-day profits ... also the most recent fair valuation put it at $6 this was done by a second tier broker ... watch her ... she still runs on potential, but as I stated she is now running in the slipstream behind SONS and both hunt behind the elephant NT ... I know you will get the timing tight ...

;-)

09-05-03 Glutt: Pax, a flight to California from my place would not cost me more than 600€, but a flight to lets say Bridgetown will cost me roughly 1000€ pro face, which is already with all possible discounts and is the third cheapest option to chose from…(two more cheap already sold out). make your own conclusions… true from London a flight to same Caribbean would probably cost a bit less I guess. I anyway would have in this case a connection via London with overnight stay. Of course I did not check London budget carriers which probably is a mistake. Can you advise?

09-05-03 moneypenny: Vally: <now zat ze truze is pooblisched i don't feel so bad anymore.> :-))))))))))))))))))

09-05-03 SPAL: <9:03 ET Sonus Networks downgraded at Advest (SONS) 8.33: Advest downgrades to Neutral from Buy based on valuation, as the shares have exceeded their $8 target; firm says the shares are priced for perfection, leaving no room for disappointments or market corrections.>

Carib - re: VRSO and my comment on SONS ... this may trigger some weakness in VRSO ...

09-05-03 Glutt: Wally <that's a fare for those who are brain-amputated <glut>.> I am not but the country where I happen to come for work and live is, so in order to get a good deal I will always have to travel either to Germany or use Moscow connection to get cheap packages and cheap charter flights… pity that to some destinations there are no cheap flights from Moscow. anyway for my future trips I think I will use Munich travel agencies if can find a good one…

Btw, one disadvantage with well priced travel packages is that almost in all cases (at least here in my place) they offer standard two people single room accommodation (maximum this will be a deluxe double bed one room), otherwise booking yourself a good mini suit or like I did in Fiji 120 sq m two room two bathroom two kitchen large 30m hall with entrance from the garden all for 58€ (after negotiating price) will be better option. IMHO

Btw, if comparing quality & price in Fiji3.5 I would rate hotel where Hase stayed the best in town. For the record, I used a chance to visit most of best hotels in Fiji and find out prices and see mini suits myself. For the record again, five star Royal Cliff is really the best but bit expensive, Dusit Resort five star but a piece of sh---t should be rated 3+ max, Garden Beach Resort rated 4 star but should be 5 star… according to local ratings of course… in all hotels you can negotiate a 20-25% right off at arrival and possibly even more if book in advance or use local travel agency. When they tell you they have no places ignore them and ask to show you something like mini suit just to see… when they show you ask for price and then you can either take it or decline. All I told my personal experience.

<i recently paid € 1.233 for business class from €urope to the Far East (return flight) and could have flown the same route in economy for € 480!> probably because you have fat mileage account and like senator class status, true Herr Prof. Dr. Wally ? I don’t add Magister after Dr. as you told me this typical for peasantry Österreich.

09-05-03 amigo latino: Glut and Carib: My (European)broker repeatedly warned me not to buy Min Fins, Ecu PDI (96-97) and was skeptical (did not actively discourage) about my purchase of Bulg Discount bond(it has treasury bond backing). He was opposed to the idea of Russian PRINs(at a low price). Of course he does not say anything now---but my current portfolio(99% EM sovereign or near sovereign)is classified in the bank as very high risk!.

IMO, banks have a responsibility (in addition to Argy Gov).

09-05-03 wally: <pax> you want to spend a few MONTHS somewhere? if yes, e-amil me. on <sardine class> i pity you as i remember you are even taller than me!

09-05-03 SPAL: < Spal lets update <Watchlist> and have Carib be the <Timing Master>!!! :-)) > YES FOX ... time to make some serious money. And let it hereby be formally acknowledged that there is no better master of timing than Carib ... I think on a % basis he has about doubled the return I have made on my own picks!

09-05-03 PaxWax: <Glutt>, a flight from Spain to California (damned uncomfortable, in fact much worse than the old wooden-seated third-class Spanish trains of fond memory) costs well under 500 €uros, almost any time during the year. I leave first class to the godzillionaires (or sybarites like <Wally). One problem for many people with reasonably ample assets is that the return on capital invested in the equities or normal bond markets ranges from zero to <grossly inadequate>. If you have a million or so @ >9 or 10%, you can keep on trucking, but I have three people working in "casa" plus several mouths to feed, so it's "sardine"-class for me. As for a place to spend a few months, Brazil sounds fine, but not to buy a house (according to what we have heard about the tax situation). I am allergic to income-tax, so Spain in the "old" days was fine for me. Backhanders to brassy burocrats, não, obrigadinho, nunca mais. Even in Mexico, they never got a cent out of me.

09-05-03 SPAL: <09-04-03 moneypenny: Something for Wally....

http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/intern...

Deep down, the Tschermanns really vant to be cowboys! :-)))> ... also from a historical point of view it is interesting that many books of the early western genre were very big sellers in Germany ...

09-05-03 wally: <Pax <any places you know of a similarly cheap nature>> try last minute deals from Europe to the Dominican Republic (all included) two weeks below € 1.000, or presently (a friend told me) an offer from Germany to Fiji 3½ (Emirates) flight, hotel with american breakfast, transfers; 12 days for € 580. your problem is that Emirates does not fly to La Coruña.

09-05-03 wally: <1000-2000K per face for just a 10-15 hour flight in economy class> that's a fare for those who are brain-amputated <glut>. i recently paid € 1.233 for business class from €urope to the Far East (return flight) and could have flown the same route in economy for € 480! the specialist for economy packages (flight, hotel with american breakfast, transfers, etc.) is our friend <hase>.

09-05-03 wally: <Deep down, the Tschermanns really vant to be cowboys! :-)))> i vas alvays afraid <MoneyPenny> zat sooner or later yew vill diskover ze sekret vishes of ze Tchermanns und zenn yew vill make der lots of fun vizz us. now zat ze truze is pooblisched i don't feel so bad anymore.

my greatest fear however is zat ze <oozing besserwisser maniak> vill read the sientifik book vhere it is exaktly deskribed how an ayrab tribe made it from Suzzern Spanien to Tchermanny (yust before the Ayrabs vere defeated), liffed zere evver after disguised as Tchermanns oond slowly took over the kountry. he vill zen haff addishonul reasons to demand zat my kountry is nuked togezzer vizz all die monkey kountries.

:~))

09-05-03 Fox: < Time for divorce after the 300% gain?> Maeessstroooo!!!Giganteeee!!!!Campeooonn!!!

Spal lets update <Watchlist> and have Carib be the <Timing Master>!!! :-))

09-05-03 Glutt: Carib, i agree with your blame of Duhalde & Gang, but i think role of some banks is underestimated … particularly if you assume bank takes money for advises and etc (look you get usually no research for free but only if you are a client, yes? Means you in fact pay for it) .. so if banks are profiting without bearing responsibility for the deeds this creates bad precedents for future of whole business. For consequences scroll to corporate scandals of recent and scandals with banks … do you think it was stupid to fine banks pay for improper conduct of investment and misleading clients with dishonest opinions? and i do not see why the story should not repeat. One question is when someone gives his personal opinion thinking and relying on it the same way as those who listen. another question is when someone spreads BS opinion knowing about this but for the sake of so called relationship and business mandates or under management pressure. So, if bank had a conflict of interest which resulted in improper advise and a loss so this bank should pay dues arising from such misconduct. Am i wrong? IMHO

09-05-03 carib: Glutt: for less than 1000 per head you can fly <business class> from Paris to Martinique....BTW, I have to leave, to catch a few planes, including <from Paris to Martinique>. see you on sunday.

09-05-03 carib: Pax: I would agree with Glutt tht south east sia is cheap. I would add north east Brasil is also cheap. Grenada is nice, but not <cheap>. Glutt: I did not mean to criticize, with the <ex post>....in 1999 lots of holders of RF were fuming about the value of their bonds...should they have sued their banks? I personally disagree with the idea of blaming the banks for Argy. I blame Duhalde and his gang.

09-05-03 Glutt: Pax, for me flight costs are most i hate. Paying 1000-2000K per face for just a 10-15 hour flight in economy class and sitting in closet conditions with your knees pressed to your ears makes me unhappy, while first class is damn hell expensive … otherwise i prefer spending additional buck on five star accommodation or large suit than on 10 hours of collective suffering in flying cigar. If only could teach me how and where to find cheap flights (but those that are safe and do not often drop down)

09-05-03 Glutt: Carib, it is not about being wise post factum. I am just telling that there a number of retail and it can be considerable who bought ARG accidentally, either for the reason they were bamboozled by various advisers and fund managers or for the reason of just HY. So that is. Of course there also exist well number of people who understood situation but simply could not believe in such collapse at the end, or some who bought ARG low as do vulture funds in gamble.

As regards view of financial market as a whole this is my personal uneducated view which i do not ask anyone else to sign. Of course one may simply say it is dumb view, fine.

<PaxWax: <Carib>, any places you know of a similarly cheap nature, but not ugly, for <colores> with lots of ex-wives to bankroll?> Pax, there is Thailand where you can have it all cheap and nice, ask Wally for details, the problem is that your wife may not like Fiji3.5 for some known reason but choosing relaxing destinations like Koh Samui or even more like Crabi will make you feel well without spending all your entire fortune IMHO. btw, flights from Europe to Caribbean may be not cheaper than to Thailand, while hotels and food are cheap and relatively good (depends on taste and money you want pay). As i was not on <Isla Margarita> I do not know how it compares to Thai places, but carib seems visited both locations and may tell you more.

09-05-03 PaxWax: I still have fond memories of th4e island of Grenada, but it wasn't cheap.

09-05-03 PaxWax: <Carib>, any places you know of a similarly cheap nature, but not ugly, for <colores> with lots of ex-wives to bankroll? (Not my problem, incidentally, but having just had to pay for several one-hundred-dollah meals inviting all the in-laws and 8 nephews, I need somewhere to hide!)

If it hase wideband internet access, all the better.

09-05-03 carib: Pax: Margarita might be cheap...but is also ugly....

09-05-03 carib: Glutt: it's very easy to be <wise ex post>. Those retail investors that bought Argy were not so unresonable in assuming that a sovereign country is not expected to default on Eurobonds without facing serious long term consequences. Argy did, and those investors are reasonably asking Argy be threatened with serious long term consequences.I have no idea how the saga will end. All I can tell is the higher the price Argy will have to pay for her default, the better. If Argy gets off easily, on the other end, this should keep EM eurobonds yielding more in the long term, to every clipper's delight (except those that will have to face new defaults....)

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