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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, September 11, '03 )
 
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 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Argentine leader set to sign IMF deal 09-11-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentine President Nestor Kirchner was on the verge of signing an elusive deal with the IMF (news - web sites), one day after missing a three-billion-dollar loan repayment, a government source said.
*IMF strikes positive note 09-11-03 (guardian.co.uk) The International Monetary Fund yesterday added its voice to optimism about the prospects for the global economy, saying rock-bottom interest rates and ADVERTISEMENT the "remarkable resilience" of financial markets had left firms poised to invest.
*Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt 09-10-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina defaulted on a $3 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) on Tuesday, the biggest single missed payment in the IMF's history and likely to further isolate the precarious economy.
*US supports Argentina on IMF talks 09-10-03 (Financial Times) The US administration on Tuesday sent a robust message of support to Argentina as the country continued to negotiate a crucial three-year deal with the International Monetary Fund.
*Fiscal Strategies for the States 09-10-03 (cato.org) During the past few months, fiscal conservatives have sharply criticized the Bush administration's fiscal record. However, the performance of Republicans at the state level leaves little to cheer.
*Iraq Plan to Increase Deficit to 4.7 Pct of GDP 09-10-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites)'s $87 billion spending plan for postwar Iraq (news - web sites) will increase next year's already record U.S. budget deficit to at least $525 billion

 LATIN AMERICA
*Brazilians Soured by U.S. Sugar Tariffs 09-11-03 (Washington Post) SERTAOZINHO, Brazil -- Wearing a straw hat, shin guards and goggles, Joaquim Batista dos Santos swings his machete in wide, looping arcs, hacking away at the eight-foot-high stalks of sugar cane like a baseball player warming up in the on-deck circle.
*Energy Project vs. Environmentalists in Peru 09-10-03 (NY Times) ARACAS, Peru - In the barren moonlike landscape outside this coastal hamlet, workers in hard hats are busily laying cables and constructing giant holding tanks for natural gas liquids.
*Chile Reopens Door on 30th Anniversary of Coup 09-10-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - Thirty years ago on Sept. 11 firemen carried the corpse of Latin America's first democratically elected Marxist president out through a door of Chile's bombarded government palace after a military coup
*Divorce May Become Legal in Chile but Not Easier 09-10-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - Chile, one of the few nations in the world where "until death do you part" is still the law, is finally moving toward legalizing divorce. Ironically, the proposed rules may make it harder than ever to end marriages.

 AFRICA
*Africans Burden: Wests Farm Subsidies 09-11-03 (NY Times) ASESE, Uganda — Erikangin Thembo does not think much about agricultural policy as he farms. Sweating in the midday heat, he keeps his mind focused on the earth in front of him. He raises his hoe above his head. With a grunt, he sends it plummeting into the rich soil.

 OIL PRICES
*Historically, Gasoline Prices Are Not Expensive 09-10-03 (cato.org) With Labor Day weekend fast approaching and gas prices reaching $1.79 a gallon in many markets and even topping $2.00 a gallon for premium unleaded, newspapers have been full of headlines about "record prices."
 
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09-11-03  PILLZ: CARACAS, Venezuela, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Venezuela will sell $750 million to $1 billion in new 10-year bonds after receiving a better-than-expected response to its efforts to improve the foreign debt profile of the world's No. 5 oil exporter, Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega said on Thursday.

Nobrega told Reuters by telephone from New York that the new bond issue would close later on Thursday or Friday with a maximum yield of 12.5 percent and a referential coupon of 10.75 percent.

"We started out with a small amount of $500 million but we have received up until now up to $2 billion in offers. That is four times our expectations," he said, adding that the final amount should not exceed $1 billion.

A representative of ABN Amro told Reuters earlier on Thursday that the government planned to issue $500 million in bonds through ABN and Citigroup. Nobrega and his team have just completed a roadshow in Europe and the United States.

Venezuela, battling the sharpest recession in its history, recently bought back $1.5 billion in its foreign debt in an operation financed with a new issue of seven-year dollar-denominated bonds at par with a 5.375 coupon.

Nobrega said in August that the government planned to refinance up to $3 billion in its foreign debt this year and was evaluating various options as part of its campaign to ease a medium-term payments squeeze.

The finance minister said on Thursday that the government would "soon" announce another buyback or swap operation


09-11-03  manya: As hungry buyers continue bidding up the prices on government and corporate debt from emerging markets, three big-name issuers came to market on Thursday, kicking off what's expected to be a busy few weeks of issuance. Brazil, Venezuela and Brazilian state-owned oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) hit the market with new bond offerings Thursday, joining a post-Labor Day chorus that has only begun to sing. "The markets are poised to have issuance from everywhere in the next couple weeks," said Mike Conelius, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price. "I wouldn't be surprised to see issues from half a dozen" countries, he added. J.P. Morgan said in a recent report that $11 billion in emerging market debt issuance remains to be completed this year and that $32 billion had been placed so far.

http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/em/1003...


09-11-03  Glutt: savo, i would agree with your strategy provided i am always able to accumulate enough hard cash from coupon and get rid of not so good anymore credits more or less timely.

Amigo, how big is your techno sado-maso? Buying new machine for reasonable under 1000$ price will solve all your problems for next 5 years…or even may be 10 years given how long you use your old PC.


09-11-03  amigo latino: <Paxwax: All this is sidelining you from the real business at hand, namely investments and colorespeak, a 24 hour-per-day affaire……..>

Pax, not all. In fact it has been boring fo me ( and to many colores, perhaps) not to find opportunities to buy . Last time I bought was,CESP 04 , may be in April/May 03 at about 55. Since then I have not run into an opportunity(Since I am a small investor I am comfortable with bonds at prices of <60 and preferably <<50. I thought about and still think about Arg sovereigns—look attractive pricewise, and I spent lots of time figuring out NPV recovery values and now and then I make postings about Argy sovereigns. If you have seen any hidden opportunities in low priced bonds, please post them. I will assure you that I will participate in the discussions( Note: I am not a trader or sophisticated investor— So I want low price, good security and a big profit potential).

Meanwhile, I find it imperative to learn about computers( more fruitful than political discussions, although I like them too). Perhaps my experience with Zone Alarm Firewall may alert some Colores to the need investigate before selecting a software hastily. (ZA is apparently very good in protecting a computer, but it has many frustrating side effects—experienced by a small but significant minority of users. Apparently Sygate works well(?) too, but without any negative side effects. There are many forums devoted to ZA problesms)


09-11-03  wally: and another one from me <amigo>. the "programs" you listed as running can never show up on the pop-up window. amongst some "dll" FILES you even listed "the color of the market" as "program". that's nonsense. if you are not able to specify your problems, respectively if you do not follow step-by-step procedures as suggested nobody will be able to assist you.

09-11-03  amigo latino: <09-11-03 manya: <Indicative> offers on CESP $ CESP '07 9.625% 88.000 13.79% CESP '05 12.5% 79.000 29.38%……………>

Will CESP have the money to redeem the o5 bonds at maturity? Any comments ?


09-11-03  victorn: amigo, your computer problems are at a point where I just can not help you as I have never experienced anything similar (win3.1, 95 and 98). With all due respect, I think that so many years from now, when you look back at your computer problems you are going to say to yourself: "it just wasn't worth it saving myself $1,000, the cost of a new computer". Everything has a limit, and i think that your computer should be replaced.

09-11-03  savonarola: fox...<The important thing for us to understand how to play & invest trough these cycle/crises>

From my point of view, the big risk in these times is to try to find value where there is none. Our business is not to buy bonds, but to buy good bonds in times when nobody wants them. In good times even bad credits might trade tight, However, they will trade wider than good credtis. We shouldn't fall under the temptation of switching out of good credits and into bad ones simply because they offer a yield pick up. We will have sufficient yield available from good credits when the next bust happens.


09-11-03  Fox: <http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/quo... I sometimes play around with companies in <Pink Sheets> dont have my system doenst have Level II but can trade them on LevelI terms.

09-11-03  manya: <Indicative> offers on CESP $ CESP '07 9.625% 88.000 13.79%
CESP '05 12.5% 79.000 29.38%

09-11-03  manya: Treasury's Snow Pledges U.S. Backing for IMF Loan to Argentina

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow endorsed a $12.3 billion loan agreement between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund that comes less than two years after the country triggered the biggest default in history. ``The United States expects to support the program when it's submitted to the IMF executive board for approval next week,'' Snow said in a statement.
The U.S. is the IMF's largest shareholder and the only one with an effective veto over the fund's lending decisions. The financing, to be released over three years, is aimed at helping Argentina's recovery from a four-year recession and restoring investors' confidence after the default on $95 billion of bonds in late 2001.
Snow said pledges from the Argentine government to control spending, establish a new tax-sharing structure and plan for an independent central bank merited the aid. ``There's some significant structural reform in this agreement,'' Snow told reporters, denying allegations that the loan represented a reversal in U.S. policy because it didn't guarantee enough new economic steps. ``We indicated to Argentina that a bad agreement was worse than no agreement. There was a minimum level of reforms that had to be met.'' Snow predicted if Argentina met its policy commitments and restructured its debt, the loans would ``help lay the basis for sustained growth.''


09-11-03  manya: <Jose Barrionuevo>, head of Latin America research for Barclays Capital Inc. in New York., comments on a $21 billion, three-year aid agreement reached yesterday between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund.

``There is no medium-term framework, which is critical for the renegotiation of the defaulted debt.

``It's a political triumph of the government. It comes at the expense of generating the needed confidence in the economy to attract investment.

``Economic reforms are lacking. Despite the economic crisis, politicians continue without the will to carry out reforms.

``Reaching a 3 percent primary surplus is not a problem for Argentina. The challenge will be to keep expenditures from growing as revenue increases.

``The agreement has improved market sentiment. But there is still concern that this is just short term.


09-11-03  SPAL: <09-11-03 carib: what or who is MCWEQ?> aka WORLD'CON'

09-11-03  manya: FED REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL - PRIICNG DETAILS: $750MM REOPENING OF 10% 8/7/2011
B2/B+ (STABLE OUTLOOKS BOTH)
JT LEADS: CITI-GS
PX: $96.5
YLD: 10.663
SPRD: +633/10YR
TSY: 99-11+
SD: 9/18
market very strong throuhout the day. Selling off now..any shorts out there? FOX (JR) sin comentarios...

09-11-03  Glutt: PT_mate, interesting expirience ... from your posting i understand that broker job is challenging and demanding. i know of course that brokers are spending big moneys to entertain their clients from time to time so they sometimes show up here in my village to take our monkeys to top brothel and even paying them a prostitute

09-11-03  carib: Thanks, Fox...dropped Alex a line...

09-11-03  carib: what or who is MCWEQ?

09-11-03  SPAL: <MCWEQ>

I might give it a whirl ... interesting thought.


09-11-03  Patient-Trader: "PT, I know brokers are unusual ‘’monkey’’ spices, sometimes annoying but sometimes vely funny, and may be more honest than bankers I guess, or am I wrong?" Glut, I rather see brokers as (hopefully) innovative prostitutes - and according to my experience most prostitutes are gnerally honest. My boss which I cited earlier came up with most extraordinary sell pitches. E.g. on one occasion (I was sitting next to him listening) he tried to pursuade a female Dutch fund manager with the promise that she would get a huge bouquet of flowers with a large pen.s stuck in between if she would trade with him. Although our whole office was lying on the floor laughing he didn't get any biz. However, I am sure that the Dutch bank holds him in fond memory :-) In short: Brokers would go to almost any length to settle a deal. I have been stuck in Vienese hashish caves, been forced by my clients to eat in Austrian highway restaurants, been "admiring" traders outrageous wives, hopping between three European cities on a plane within one day, sleeping with female French fund managers, admiring the skills of Scottish fund managers with stag-night girlies etc. Colleagues of mine got stuck in some special HK brothel where they where asked to choose between several 12 year old virgins - anything goes apparently to strike a deal. As far as I remember Savo used to be a broker too, perhaps he can pitch in a few stories.

09-11-03  SPAL: A couple of big buyers were on deck for uncle TEO this afternoon ...

09-11-03  Fox: <We need a major blow away crisis to get to starting point> We live in cyclical boom bust world we are bound to have a crises sooner or latter dont know exactly when but we will. The important thing for us to understand how to play & invest trough these cycle/crises.

09-11-03  Glutt: savo funny you somehow confused me for Advice. yeah... <The debates we had in those days were excellent.> who would doubt, I am missing that time but everything is in our hands …I now listen to my collection of Pink Floyd and is it time to say “Is there anybody out there?” … I admit I bare my part of responsibility for lowering profile but we also have an excuse being at top of bull market for EM and historically high spreads so we may not resist some schweinkram injections … today EM is not about what to buy but more is about what to sell…. We need a major blow away crisis to get to starting point.

09-11-03  Fox: Guys check ColoresFiles

09-11-03  Advice55: TCP.... looks like shorts will get squeezed here....

Lots of shorts on this stock...

Copel looks fine as well pax!


09-11-03  carib: only news from CESP I got is that they paid the coupon. I would like to know when the old bonds will be turned into the new bonds, but I was unable to get an answer.

09-11-03  carib: Rolf: no, I do not have recent price levels for CESP US$. Maybe Manya does.

09-11-03  Fox: Spal I know this may sound crazy but as pure speculative move what do you think of MCWEQ?

PD:I can trade it trough CyberTrader


09-11-03  Fox: < Fox strikes again> Gracias Spal!! I think we is in the right direction, is going to be a long journey but in the right direction ;-)

09-11-03  SPAL: <09-11-03 Fox: <Telecom Argentina Outlook Seen Brighter With Stake Sale> Fox strikes again.

09-11-03  Fox: <Telecom Argentina Outlook Seen Brighter With Stake Sale

By SONJA RYST

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -- France Telecom SA's (FTE) plan to hand off its indirect stake in Telecom Argentina STET-France Telecom SA (TEO ) bodes well for Argentina's leading provider of fixed-line telephone services, which will benefit, market players say, from a more streamlined, dedicated ownership. France Telecom said Tuesday that it plans to sell 48% of its share in Nortel Inversora SA, the holding company which owns a majority of Telecom Argentina's share capital, to W de Argentina Inversiones SA for $125 million. This new buyer, a company owned by the local Werthein family and an affiliate of Argentine investment group Los W, also has an option to later purchase another 2% share in Nortel.

"It's positive given that you have control transferred to a local Argentine company that might have a much better handle on the company going forward," said Amit Bhartia, an equity portfolio manager at GMO Emerging Markets in California.

France Telecom is stepping aside for a local family that, starting in the 1990s, got involved in telecom and financial enterprises, including the takeover of Argentine insurance company Caja de Ahorro y Seguro.

There's a chance that the Werthein family will be involved only for the next few years. Telecom Argentina's other foreign parent, Telecom Italia SpA (TI), has its own option to buy a 50% stake from the new Argentine investor for $60 million after Dec. 31, 2008.

"The end game is that the shares being sold by France Telecom ultimately go to Telecom Italia," said Ignacio Ponce de Leon, a Latin America corporate debt analyst at JP Morgan in New York. "This means you get more clarity at the top - much more executive power."

That executive power has been split since Telecom Argentina's privatization in the 1990s. For more than a decade France Telecom and Telecom Italia have each held around 34% of voting rights and a 25.5% stake in Nortel Inversora.

But the two European telecoms have been at odds recently when it comes to the question of their commitment to Latin America. Telecom Italia, one of the world's largest fixed-line telecommunications operators, continues holding other major investments in Latin America such as the Chilean telecom Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (E.ENT), or Entel, which generates sales in excess of $500 million per year. In contrast the state-controlled fixed-line and mobile telephone operator France Telecom has recently decided to focus on France and the United Kingdom, and has been scaling back on global investments. In addition to this week's announcement on Telecom Argentina, France Telecom said it would relinquish its controlling stake of the Salvadoran operator CTE Salvador.

The loss of France Telecom won't likely hurt Telecom Argentina, said Marta Castelli, an analyst at Standard & Poor's Corp. in Buenos Aires. "They haven't received any money from France Telecom" since Telecom Argentina's privatization, she explained.

Meantime, few bond investors ever expected the foreign parent to put money on the table in support of Telecom Argentina's negotiations for new agreements on more than $3 billion of debt that it defaulted on during the Argentine crisis last year. In an indication that the market isn't particularly concerned about France Telecom's recent announcement, Telecom Argentina's rarely traded debt remains valued by traders at around of its 65% face value, where it was before the stake sale news.

"I don't think this can really modify the debt restructuring proposal" that Telecom Argentina has been working on with creditors in recent months, said Nicola Stock, the chairman of Task Force Argentina, an organization formed under the umbrella of the Italian Banking Association that represents retail investors from the country collectively holding about EUR680 million of Telecom Argentina's debt. Stock pointed out that Telecom Argentina's foreign parents haven't been directly involved in its debt restructuring deal, which is already in the final stages.

Not all investors were blase, however. France Telecom is unloading its stake to Werthein for a price that doesn't reflect market value, according to some equity analysts' projections. Telecom Argentina's shares tumbled 3.2% on the day to change hands at $6.00 apiece on the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday.

Company officials did not provide comment that was beyond the scope of previously published press releases. Representatives of the Werthein family did not immediately respond to requests for an interview.>


09-11-03  rolfkoch: carib, do you have a price-indikation for cesp-usd-04 ? the cesp-eur-04 is traded in frankfurt round abaut 78...

09-11-03  carib: Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's peso had its biggest gain in 15 weeks, and stocks rose, after the country secured a $21 billion loan pledge from an International Monetary Fund-led group to spur economic growth following a four-year recession.

The peso rose 1.19 percent to 2.9 per dollar at 1145 a.m. in New York, its biggest gain since May 26.

Argentina's Merval stock index rose 0.8 percent at 11:45 a.m. New York time. The index jumped 4.9 percent yesterday, the biggest gain among the world's primary indexes, as investors anticipated an accord.


09-11-03  Advice55: because of the maturity of optins in brazil bovespa on monday we have some locals trying to let prices of important stocks as tcp and tne inside the present range..... they have the papers and sold out of the money calls. they do not want too loose the papers untill monday, soo they are trying to mantain prices were they are untill monday....

maybe they will succeed, maybe not, but i sure can see some big foreign players taking advantage of that and buying a lot....


09-11-03  carib: Wally: of course, perfection would require us to buy at every bottom and sell at every top. but 1) I am no trader; and 2) I am not perfect. Hence, I feel happy when I manage to identify and buy an asset that produces a good income over time. In such cases, drops in prices are <buying opportunities>. In the case of Guano, I shared the <colores euphoria> in early 2002...but fortunately waited until guano 12 was below 50 before transforming the euphoria into an additional purchase. In the case of Brasil, a credit I have been holding since 1997, I sold my biggest position (BR 09$) in march 2002 with a nice gain, and later sold my BR40 with a small loss. in august I bought back three times as much (in Br40s, Br07GBP and BR09E) at about half price.Ithink most of us doubled their money on brasil in the last year, and that is all that counts...

09-11-03  Advice55: too many shorts in tcp....

pressure is mounting.....

and there are to many guys short in the stock....


09-11-03  carib: Wally: <Bragging contest> only on NDFs.... <Guano> you are right, but <colores wisdom> suggested: buy more guano when if falls. So I did last year, doubling my position...with a capital gain of 60% considering current levels...


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