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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, September 12, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Two 9/11s, one story 09-12-03 (guardian.co.uk) On the morning of September 11 I watched aircraft flying overhead. Minutes later I heard explosions and saw fireballs of smoke fill the sky. As a result of these attacks thousands died, including two good friends.
*Trade Deficit Widens to $40.3B in July 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - America's trade deficit expanded in July to $40.3 billion as imported goods from China and the quantity of overseas crude oil sold to the United States each hit record highs.
*Job Market Weak Despite Growth Signs 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans are finding it unexpectedly tough to hold onto their jobs but other areas of the economy are showing signs of a pickup, two government reports out on Thursday showed.
*US trade gap swells 09-12-03 (BBC) The US trade deficit widened slightly in July as consumers bought the second highest level of imported goods on record, according to official figures.
*Argentine leader set to sign IMF deal 09-11-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentine President Nestor Kirchner was on the verge of signing an elusive deal with the IMF (news - web sites), one day after missing a three-billion-dollar loan repayment, a government source said.
*IMF strikes positive note 09-11-03 (guardian.co.uk) The International Monetary Fund yesterday added its voice to optimism about the prospects for the global economy, saying rock-bottom interest rates and ADVERTISEMENT the "remarkable resilience" of financial markets had left firms poised to invest.

 LATIN AMERICA
*IDB Approves Peru Pipeline Project Loan 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - The Inter-American Development Bank on Wednesday approved $135 million in financing to support construction of a controversial natural gas pipeline project in Peru that environmentalists contend represents a threat to the country's rain forests.
*Perus Amazon gas project approved 09-12-03 (BBC) The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) has approved $135m in financing for Peru's controversial Camisea natural gas project.
*Argentina payment secures temporary respite in debt battle 09-12-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentina made a 2.9 billion dollar payment to the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) but a new debt restructuring accord has done little to reassure private bankers.
*Chile Takes Painful Look at Coup 30 Years Later 09-12-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - A prosperous and democratic Chile painfully looked back 30 years on Thursday to the military coup on Sept. 11, 1973 that split the nation and ushered in 17 years of dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet (news - web sites).
*Brazil seeks to reassure markets on policy 09-12-03 (Financial Times) The Brazilian government has sought to reassure investors that it will continue to pursue an agenda of sound economic reforms whether or not it renews an accord with the International Monetary Fund later this year.
*Brazilians Soured by U.S. Sugar Tariffs 09-11-03 (Washington Post) SERTAOZINHO, Brazil -- Wearing a straw hat, shin guards and goggles, Joaquim Batista dos Santos swings his machete in wide, looping arcs, hacking away at the eight-foot-high stalks of sugar cane like a baseball player warming up in the on-deck circle.

 ASIA
*Indonesians Plan Exploring for Iraq Oil 09-12-03 (Yahoo) JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina oil company will restart an oil and gas exploration project in Iraq (news - web sites) interrupted earlier this year by the U.S.-led attack on that nation, the company said Thursday.
*China tumbles in white goods 09-11-03 (Financial Times) Many of China's leading washing machine makers have been bought out or gone bankrupt in recent months, confounding expectations the mainland's low-cost manufacturers would become dominant international players.

 AFRICA
*Refuge for the Wild, With No Land Mines, Please 09-12-03 (NY Times) IMPOPO NATIONAL PARK, Mozambique, Sept. 4 — Wildlife specialists released seven elephants into this new game sanctuary the other day, and Santos Ngoverne, dressed in a blue plaid shirt and battered sandals, was on hand to watch.
*End cotton subsidies demands Africa 09-12-03 (BBC) World Trade Organisation chief Supachai Panitchpakdi is reviewing demands by African cotton producers for an end to subsidies paid to farmers in richer countries.
*Africans Burden: Wests Farm Subsidies 09-11-03 (NY Times) ASESE, Uganda — Erikangin Thembo does not think much about agricultural policy as he farms. Sweating in the midday heat, he keeps his mind focused on the earth in front of him. He raises his hoe above his head. With a grunt, he sends it plummeting into the rich soil.

 OIL PRICES
*Australian hunt for African oil 09-12-03 (BBC) An Australian consortium has started exploration drilling at the Chinguetti oilfield off the coast of Mauritania, Perth-based company Hardman Resources has announced.
*Casting a Cold Eye on Arctic Oil 09-11-03 (NY Times) RCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Alaska — Here's a helpful hint for backpackers here in the Arctic: If you're lying in your sleeping bag and suddenly feel a pat on the behind from outside the tent, YELL!
 
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09-12-03  Cheetah: Advice55: TCP.... looks like shorts will get squeezed here....

advice...TCP up 0.09 cents today and TEO up .34...at least you have capitulated on that one...

on TCP as soon as FOx gives me the green light i will begin taking TCP up...but in the meantime i will continue to only BUY argi crap...


09-11-03  amigo latino: Wally, You are right . I made a mistake(I am not a night person. I make mistakes after 10-11pm. Last night I stayed late until 12.30 pm).

1) At 5.50 pm, after closing all the windows and pressing Cntl+Alt +Dlt , results: . ((

Explorer
Netscape
Internat …….?

Hottray
AVGcc 32…………..possibly antivirus ?

Dllcmd 32 ………….?

Systray
Avg ser 9…………..antivirus?

Winampa ))

Note: Dllcmd 32( it has been present in the popup window every time I check) and “Winampa” are present. Winamp possibly is present For a longtime : I frequently used to get “close the window-winamp made an error” messages).

2)HD: Total 4 GB Partitions: C and D 2 gb each.

Before defrgmn: C: 386 mb free space, D: 1.63 gb free

After defrgmn (after closing all the programs in pop-up window ---alt-cntl-dlt, ,,,except IE, and files(temp and internet temp) removed

C: 3rd deragmn in about 4 weeks: 411 mb D( after the defrgmn, the first ever): free 1.63 gb(no change at all)

3 ) It is as urprise to know that C has an occupied disk space of 1 .6 gb, considering that I do not store data or images/pictures or movies or music on it(only pictures stored on C are of desktop-wall paprer, provided by Windows … . Also most of the software(netscape, adobe, spybot, anti virus, firewall, games, etc are on D) and D has a free space of 1.6 gb.


09-11-03  rolfkoch: Iusacell Bondholders Demand Repayment of 2004 Bonds (Update2) Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Holders of Grupo Iusacell's $150 million bond due in 2004 demanded immediate repayment, starting the legal process to put the mobile phone provider into bankruptcy.

Investors holding 51 percent of the July 2004 bonds delivered a notice today demanding repayment because the Mexico City-based company made a debt payment to banks while in default on the bonds, said Arturo Perez Pena, an attorney for the bondholders with Canales y Socios in Garza Garcia, Mexico.

The move will start a legal process that may end in the creditors taking control of the company.

``We're just tired of the way the new management group has treated its creditors for as long as they have,'' said Robert Rauch, who operations, said Robert Rauch, who helps manage $350 million in distressed debt at Gramercy Advisors and holds an undisclosed amount of the 2004 bonds. ``When they're making payments out from the company to other creditors, that's prejudicing our position.''

The legal move raises the stakes in the battle between bondholders and owner Ricardo Salinas, who has said he wants to slash debt. Salinas bought 75 percent of Iusacell for $7.5 million in June from Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc after the company defaulted earlier that month.

Since then, investors have had ``very limited dialogue'' with Salinas' Iusacell managers, Rauch said. ``Basically their message has been wait around, we want to develop our business plan and then we'll let you know what we want to do,'' he said. ``Why should we wait around for that?''

Iusacell's shares fell 0.3 percent before the announcement to close at 79 centavos on the Mexico City exchange.

Last Updated: September 11, 2003 17:20 EDT ******************
whats your meaning to this matter ?


09-11-03  carib: Wally <WB loans> correct, but if the WB gives money to build a new road (just an example) the government can spend the money thus saved on other things. I do not think Argentina is a poor country, in need of <development aid>. It's a badly managed country, in need of political reform.

09-11-03  wally: <What is more interesting is to see if the WB/IADB will lend fresh, real money> it's worthwhile to note that these loans are given for specific purposes only and can neither be used to prop up reserves nor to solve liquidity problems.

09-11-03  amigo latino: Only of legal and social interest:

<Man Must Share Pension with Ex-Wife's Husband BERLIN (Reuters) - A German court has told a man that the pension he used to share with his ex-wife must now be shared with her widowed husband, authorities said on Thursday.

Bernhard Wanwitz, a judge at the administrative court in the western city of Mainz, said the man withdrew an appeal to keep his entire pension when the court said the widower was entitled to a share of his late wife's divorce settlement.

Under German law, when a couple divorces, the ex-spouse with the smaller pension has a right to top-up payments from the other's pension. After the woman died, her new husband inherited her pension and then exercised his right to collect the money.

The retired civil servant will now have to pay around 700 euros ($785) of his pension each month to the widower. "This is the first time I can recall a case like this," said Wanwitz. …………>

Is it possible that the judge erred in his interpretation of the law? Or is it a case of legally correct judgement choking with “commonly” accepted sense of equity ? Comments please.


09-11-03  carib: MP: <wonder why>. I am not sure. Clearly, the white house wanted to avoid a hard line on Argentina. Probably they thought there is little to gain anyway, unless one wants to wage economic war. What happened in practice is that the IMF is going to give back to the ladrones all the moneys the said ladrones will pretend to return to the IMF. What is more interesting is to see if the WB/IADB will lend fresh, real money. Had I been the IMF I would have agreed to the extortion, but without a fake three year plan. The key, in my opinion, is that no foreign investments will go to Argentina until property rights are somehow restaured, and local money will continue to flee offshore....except money belonging to friends of the governing gang, as Broda noticed a couple of days ago. Sad for Argentina

09-11-03  moneypenny: Wally: <please read what Horst Köhler had to say yesterday:> Yes, but they always lie. Nobody has ever seen the IMF's books or knows their true state.

What is notable to me is that Snow & Co were awfully desperate to give the ladrones a deal. Wonder why.


09-11-03  amigo latino: Victor and Pax: My computer has no problems since yesterday. It is running very well. The problems it had recently is due to the firewall software and not the machine.

After about 25 hours of hard work(for the experienced, the time could be much less, but still needs some time), the Zone Alarm internet blocking problem went away.

I am now trying to learn how to provide free disk space for the reset function to work well, learn to use reset funtion , and to weed out unneeded programs from the computer. Wally is providing helpful suggestions and your suggestions are welcome too.

I am also intrigued by the fact that the disk C (HD 4 gb total, partitioned into C and D with equal space ) is occupying 1.6 gb but I do not store data or images/pictures or movies or music on it. Also most of the software(netscape, adobe, spybot, anti virus, firewall, games, etc are on D) and D has a free space of 1.6 gb. Wally is providing helpful suggestions and your suggestions are welcome too.


09-11-03  carib: Brazilian national oil company Petrobras has revised its estimate of a major natural gas find in the offshore Santos Basin from 70 billion cubic meters to at least 419 billion cubic meters, Petrobras Director of Gas and Energy Ildo Sauer has said. Other Petrobras executives caution that it likely will take at least a decade to develop the gas find commercially.

If the new data is accurate, however, the geopolitical energy balance in South America would shift decisively in Brazil's favor over the next 10 years. Brazil would no longer be a net importer of gas from Argentina and Bolivia. Instead, these countries -- and also Peru, which hoped to sell incremental volumes of natural gas to Brazil in coming years -- likely would not be competitive in the domestic Brazilian gas market if they were up against cheaper Brazilian gas, which would be much closer to end users.


09-11-03  amigo latino: < IMF: Also, based on past fiscal performance, the sustainable public debt level may be quite low for typical emerging economies. IMF calculations suggest a sustainable public debt threshold for a typical emerging market economy may only be about 25 percent of GDP, versus 75 percent of GDP for an industrial nation…….>

1) It is an economic common sense : If necessary a rich man can cut some of his luxury expenses to pay a loan installment….a foreign vacation(Fiji 3 ?) , cut caviar and sell the yatch. But in hard times, a poorman has to sell his house to pay the loan and he wioul be understandably reluctant to do that. A rich nation can cut some public spending programs or increase taxes as a last resort to pay the debt. But a poor nation will sink into street disturbances and chaos if they cut poverty or social programs, and increasing taxes may not lead to any increase in revenues(there will be proportionate evasion) and also there will not be willingness to pay(most piblic spending programs enrich the politicians, hence they do not want to cut).

2) The composition of economic team at IMF has changed, and apparently the new team is not taking guidance from Treasury economists for their policy recommendations.

3) The experience of China and India, in promoting high growth rates with domestic savings and not loans is being observed.


09-11-03  PILLZ: <IF you believe the company's valuation, CHSJV is "worth" only $ 16.40 per share. If you believe the "top end" of the TOPrS committee's "experts", then CHSJV is "worth" $ 37 per share. Quite a trading range. 5 year warrants at a strike price of $ 27.60 may be worth a great deal, and ONLY TOPrS holders get them!

I would advise holding on to the warrants, even if you want to dump the common, as the warrants have the greatest potential appreciation.>


09-11-03  PILLZ: If my calculation is correct every 100K unexchanged bond must receive about 2560 new Conseco shares , the exchanged one 4390

09-11-03  PILLZ: To have a price of unexchanged Conseco bond at 56, the new share must trade at 22

09-11-03  PILLZ: OOOoops Carib, on Conseco <The common stock is currently trading on a "when issued" basis in the over-the-counter market under the symbol "CNSJV."> http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030910/1058...

09-11-03  PILLZ: This poor crook try to pop up the GX shares, I'm shure he is busy shorting them, as in any case they have no value,

<From: Karl W. B. Schwarz [mailto:kw.schwarz@worldnet.att.net] Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2003 9:47 AM To: President@Whitehouse. Gov
Cc: Jack Williamson; Alan Moffatt; B Keene; Wmildren@66501. Pjc. Com; Wes Sirkis; Wendell & Luisa Prevatt; Walter Prevatt; Vette@Dellepro. Com; Toddlerohl@Aol. Com; TGS5499F@aol. com; Rondo_74172@Yahoo. Com; Robb Vanskike; Rick Lizzo; RiceOwlMoose (E-mail); Pmatthe1@Midsouth. Rr. Com; Peter Magoulas; Paul Kolaczynski; Ottavio Lavaggi; Michael Conway; McNamara Jeffrey; Matthew R. Jones; Gina Bern; Margie Clark; Licia Penner; Lawrence Fletcher; JRE441@aol. com; JR Abel; John Hovel; John Burat; JiMC41180@aol. com; Jfarley@Tcac. Net; Jbshupper@Hotmail. Com; Jason Ficks; JanForney@aol. com; Gwindrow@Texas. Net; GShotton@gbsf. org; Gshotton@Gb-S. Com; Greggazumwalt@Eaton. Com; Douglas Andrews; DClinto320@aol. com; David Cain; Ckallen@Cableone. Net; 'Burf (mgse47@voyager.net) '; Bruce. Stone@Noaa. Gov; Bobveit@Quixnet. Net Subject: attn: Karen Hughes

Dear Ms. Hughes,

I was contacted purportedly by your assistant Tuesday night regarding GX and WCG.

I am still awaiting an email address and telephone number so our Asset Purchase Agreement can be sent for your review. We have already submitted that to some of the key creditors of GX. We also have confirmation of the $475,000,000 in financing to affect a $415,000,000 offer versus the $250,000,000 offer of STT. STT is the lowest of all offers and the reason they are preferred is two fold, 1.) hide fraud; and 2.) ingratiating certain parties with Singapore and the PRC for future business as the expense of America.

Our offer also protects the shareholders, which under the STT deal get nothing, $0.

American voters are angry because restitution and justice are being denied. Case in point, the recent WCOM settlement with SEC. $750,000,000 of which $200,000,000 is cash from MCI. $250,000,000 is in post-bankruptcy newco stock, after all other shareholders are given the financial equivalent of a "shot to the head" to get them out of the way, 100% loss, and $300,000,000 is a tax refund, due only because of the accounting fraud in the first place.

In all due respect, SEC was not defrauded out of a penny so why is there no emphasis to recover funds for the parties that have been screwed over and over again? Why is SEC allowed post-bankruptcy ownership of WCOM and their shareholders are not?

SEC fines against Wall Street for illegal market manipulation, $1.4 billion and again, no emphasis on restitution to the parties harmed.

I found it interesting that the WH person knew about fraud in International LDDD, but not the implications of it. Such as 11 USC 523(b)(2), objection to discharge and treatment under the bankruptcy due to fraud or that such is milking cash from the debtor estate, right under the court's nose. That is a felony bankruptcy fraud and denying justice for the shareholders and the creditors in general. The interesting question would be, where is all of that cash going? It is also being used as a way to launder money so shareholders cannot trace the fraud.

Americans can only lose so much before they are in the poor house and will react with their vote.

Peace and prosperity cannot thrive when impunity is allowed to exist in this nation.

Peace and prosperity cannot exist without a just justice system that will not tolerate impunity from Wall Street or corrupt corporations.

When disenfranchisement of American investors and enrichment of only the rich and our government prevails, can you expect anything less than a massive anger building in America within those that work hard, strive and get financially plundered and then denied remedy, justice, or restitution?

I want President Bush to be re-elected but I am not holding my breath on that. I live in Little Rock, AR and the Wesley Clark forces are amassing here to start his bid for the presidency. They have asked on multiple occasions that I provide all I know, to discredit how these matters are being handled in Washington, DC.

GX is a fraud and the President's endorsement of that fraud will not be a wise move with approval ratings sitting at 45%.

best regards,

Karl W. B. Schwarz >


09-11-03  PILLZ: <Pill: when are bondholders supposed to get <new Conseco> shares? > yesterday

09-11-03  carib: Pill: when are bondholders supposed to get <new Conseco> shares?

09-11-03  carib: Savo: Hugo is bad for Veny....but not for Veny bondholders. Rumania under Ceausescu always paid her debts...but was hell on hearth, in case you were living there.

09-11-03  PILLZ: < Pilly which exchange for this buity ... and will you be taking some? > Schpal,it is NYSE, are you joking, I will have a ton of the new Conseco, as the bondholders hold 90% of the new Conseco

09-11-03  savonarola: This one is for <Barclays Jose Barrionuevo>

http://www.bcv.org.ve/cuadros/2/211...

Veni has recovered in only one month, 1/3 of the US$ reserves used for the August buy back.

And they say that Hugo is bad for Veni!


09-11-03  SPAL: < 09-11-03 PILLZ: New Conseco Inc. Symbol CNO Eff. 9/12 > Pilly which exchange for this buity ... and will you be taking some?

09-11-03  PILLZ: New Conseco Inc. Symbol CNO Eff. 9/12

09-11-03  PILLZ: WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Emerging market economies are on the verge of acute public debt problems unless they rein in spending and increase taxes, the International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday.

The Washington-based lender said public debt in these countries had risen sharply as governments have issued domestic debt at market interest rates in record quantities, lured by low-market interest rates.

"This study should be viewed, at the very least, as a yellow warning light," Kenneth Rogoff, chief economist for the IMF, said on a conference call to discuss initial chapters of the fund's World Economic Outlook, which were released on Thursday.

The bulk of the semiannual report, including global economic growth forecasts, comes out next week on the eve of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Dubai.

Latin America and Asia saw the biggest increase in debt, the fund said. In developing European nations hoping to join the European Union, debt-to-gross domestic product ratios have actually fallen, while in the Middle East and Africa public debt is broadly unchanged.

The fund noted the stiff cost of recent debt defaults or restructurings in emerging markets like Argentina, Ecuador, Pakistan, Russia, the Ukraine and Uruguay.

Public debt in emerging market economies now averages about 70 percent of GDP. By contrast, industrial country debt as a percentage of GDP averages around 65 percent, down from nearly 75 percent in 1995.

This is a worry given that the revenue base of the average emerging market government is much smaller than in industrialized countries, and most debt crises of the past 10 years involved domestic debt, the IMF report said.

"If history is a guide to the future, there ought to be serious concerns about problems ahead, at least for countries that do not take advantage of the current relatively benign financing environment to broaden their tax base, strengthen tax administration, reduce unproductive government expenditures and improve debt management," Rogoff said.

"Simply put, the current benign financing environment provides a window of opportunity in which countries with particularly acute debt problems need to begin steering debt ratios to safer ground, ideally taking quality measures such as strengthening the tax base and reducing unproductive expenditures," Rogoff said.

At current levels, the IMF said, emerging market nations' public debt is not sustainable. Nor will fiscal policies be enough to see the debts repaid.

Just to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio, the average emerging market economy will have to run a primary fiscal surplus that is 1-1/2 percent of GDP higher than in the past.

Also, based on past fiscal performance, the sustainable public debt level may be quite low for typical emerging economies. IMF calculations suggest a sustainable public debt threshold for a typical emerging market economy may only be about 25 percent of GDP, versus 75 percent of GDP for an industrial nation.

The fund said large cuts in public debt ratios were possible, often in conjunction with a debt restructuring program. A combination of strong growth and fiscal consolidation have also brought down public debt without recourse to a debt restructuring.

Chile was an example where government debt was lowered through fiscal and structural policy reforms, the IMF said. Hungary and Bulgaria also had success with this strategy.



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