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Friday, September 12, '03
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 | Two 9/11s, one story 09-12-03 (guardian.co.uk) On the morning of September 11 I watched aircraft flying overhead. Minutes later I heard explosions and saw fireballs of smoke fill the sky. As a result of these attacks thousands died, including two good friends.
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 | Trade Deficit Widens to $40.3B in July 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - America's trade deficit expanded in July to $40.3 billion as imported goods from China and the quantity of overseas crude oil sold to the United States each hit record highs.
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 | Job Market Weak Despite Growth Signs 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans are finding it unexpectedly tough to hold onto their jobs but other areas of the economy are showing signs of a pickup, two government reports out on Thursday showed.
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 | US trade gap swells 09-12-03 (BBC) The US trade deficit widened slightly in July as consumers bought the second highest level of imported goods on record, according to official figures.
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 | Argentine leader set to sign IMF deal 09-11-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentine President Nestor Kirchner was on the verge of signing an elusive deal with the IMF (news - web sites), one day after missing a three-billion-dollar loan repayment, a government source said.
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 | IMF strikes positive note 09-11-03 (guardian.co.uk) The International Monetary Fund yesterday added its voice to optimism about the prospects for the global economy, saying rock-bottom interest rates and ADVERTISEMENT the "remarkable resilience" of financial markets had left firms poised to invest.
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 | IDB Approves Peru Pipeline Project Loan 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - The Inter-American Development Bank on Wednesday approved $135 million in financing to support construction of a controversial natural gas pipeline project in Peru that environmentalists contend represents a threat to the country's rain forests.
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 | Perus Amazon gas project approved 09-12-03 (BBC) The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) has approved $135m in financing for Peru's controversial Camisea natural gas project.
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 | Argentina payment secures temporary respite in debt battle 09-12-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentina made a 2.9 billion dollar payment to the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) but a new debt restructuring accord has done little to reassure private bankers.
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 | Chile Takes Painful Look at Coup 30 Years Later 09-12-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - A prosperous and democratic Chile painfully looked back 30 years on Thursday to the military coup on Sept. 11, 1973 that split the nation and ushered in 17 years of dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet (news - web sites).
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 | Brazil seeks to reassure markets on policy 09-12-03 (Financial Times) The Brazilian government has sought to reassure investors that it will continue to pursue an agenda of sound economic reforms whether or not it renews an accord with the International Monetary Fund later this year.
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 | Brazilians Soured by U.S. Sugar Tariffs 09-11-03 (Washington Post) SERTAOZINHO, Brazil -- Wearing a straw hat, shin guards and goggles, Joaquim Batista dos Santos swings his machete in wide, looping arcs, hacking away at the eight-foot-high stalks of sugar cane like a baseball player warming up in the on-deck circle.
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 | Indonesians Plan Exploring for Iraq Oil 09-12-03 (Yahoo) JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina oil company will restart an oil and gas exploration project in Iraq (news - web sites) interrupted earlier this year by the U.S.-led attack on that nation, the company said Thursday.
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 | China tumbles in white goods 09-11-03 (Financial Times) Many of China's leading washing machine makers have been bought out or gone bankrupt in recent months, confounding expectations the mainland's low-cost manufacturers would become dominant international players.
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 | Refuge for the Wild, With No Land Mines, Please 09-12-03 (NY Times) IMPOPO NATIONAL PARK, Mozambique, Sept. 4 — Wildlife specialists released seven elephants into this new game sanctuary the other day, and Santos Ngoverne, dressed in a blue plaid shirt and battered sandals, was on hand to watch.
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 | End cotton subsidies demands Africa 09-12-03 (BBC) World Trade Organisation chief Supachai Panitchpakdi is reviewing demands by African cotton producers for an end to subsidies paid to farmers in richer countries.
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 | Africans Burden: Wests Farm Subsidies 09-11-03 (NY Times) ASESE, Uganda — Erikangin Thembo does not think much about agricultural policy as he farms. Sweating in the midday heat, he keeps his mind focused on the earth in front of him. He raises his hoe above his head. With a grunt, he sends it plummeting into the rich soil.
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 | Australian hunt for African oil 09-12-03 (BBC) An Australian consortium has started exploration drilling at the Chinguetti oilfield off the coast of Mauritania, Perth-based company Hardman Resources has announced.
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 | Casting a Cold Eye on Arctic Oil 09-11-03 (NY Times) RCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Alaska — Here's a helpful hint for backpackers here in the Arctic: If you're lying in your sleeping bag and suddenly feel a pat on the behind from outside the tent, YELL!
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Newest messages appear on top.
09-12-03
carib:
Fox: I saw the Infobae text first, then Bloomberg. If Bloomberg was translating from infobae...sack the translator!
But as a matter of fact, I do not see how Argy can present an acceptable debt restructuring proposal in 2003. A propasal fit for rejection? that is quite easy...
09-12-03
Advice55:
<May I add that this affects <Fixed Line> operators in particular>True, true foxito, but as you said there it is also a good or a bad sinal for Direct Foreign Investment....
And in this case, the real should loose value for the dolar and not the reverse...
But it is going the other way...
Cause the decision has not been made!
09-12-03
Advice55:
Sorry fox, STF no, STJ, the question will be decided in STJ and the companies, the telecom companies already made a statment that even if they mantain the IGPDI they will not increase prices.....Squid alrady has a deal done will telecoms!
Buy weakness!
You do not think it is estrange that the real is getting stronger today with this terrible news?
The news is not for real!
09-12-03
Glutt:
Btw, if assume IMF is right about debt to GDP ratio threshold of 25%, THEN it seems Vene will be among few meeting this criteria more or less. AH??? Funny indeed
09-12-03
Fox:
<Fox, this thing will be decided in the STF! Nothing decided yet...Buy on weakness!!!
Every one was praying for a little correction!
When it comes, every one gets nervous and let it pass?>
May I add that this affects <Fixed Line> operators in particular.
09-12-03
Fox:
Carib look @ the different wording on Infobae´s transcription of Lavagna´s interview & that of Bloomberg<...and there will be some pushing and shoving. Let's be prepared that they will reject the offer totally.''>
<....“La próxima semana, cuando la Argentina explique los lineamientos de la oferta, es posible que haya caras largas, pero esta es la realidad. Después de la oferta en la que hay planes, alternativas, un menú de opciones, habrá tironeos, y esperamos que no nos digan que rechazan totalmente la propuesta. La realidad irá indicando que esto es lo que se debe hacer”, aseguró>
09-12-03
Advice55:
<Liminar confirma reajuste na telefonia fixa por IPCA>Fox, this thing will be decided in the STF! Nothing decided yet...
Buy on weakness!!!
Every one was praying for a little correction!
When it comes, every one gets nervous and let it pass?
09-12-03
Fox:
AE Financiero
<Bolsa realiza com decisão sobre telefonia e vencimento
Nesta véspera de vencimento de opções, o Ibovespa reduzia a baixa para 0,85%, perto das 11h. As ações das teles reagiam com queda à decisão da Justiça de manter o IPCA como indice de reajuste para tarifas de telefonia fixa.>
09-12-03
optimist:
Gluty: my first purchase of Ven08 is dated 14/1/2002.. the last - 24 june 2002... So investment not as successfull in the end, as URU, but who knows - yield is still at 11.5 and 9.5% is quite likely.. It corresponds to another 12 points up:) Insh'allah..
09-12-03
carib:
Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina expects its debt restructuring proposal, to be unveiled in Dubai Sept. 21, to be rejected initially by bondholders, Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said.
``There will be long faces in many languages,'' Lavagna said during an interview on state-run Channel 7 television in Buenos Aires. ``There will be alternative options for different kinds of bondholders among which they can choose the best option, but surely they will not celebrate, and there will be some pushing and shoving. Let's be prepared that they will reject the offer totally.''
09-12-03
Advice55:
Brazil:
Buy on weekness....
Do not sell down...
09-12-03
Fox:
<12/09/2003 - 11h41Liminar confirma reajuste na telefonia fixa por IPCA
BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - Uma liminar concedida no final da quinta-feira pela 2a Vara de Justiça Federal do Distrito Federal suspendeu o reajuste na telefonia fixa homologado pelo órgão regulador do setor e estabeleceu o IPCA como indexador para os aumentos em todas as tarifas. A ação foi movida pelo Ministério Público Federal e as empresas podem recorrer da decisão.
Com isso, os aumentos ficam, por ora, inferiores aos que haviam sido autorizados pela Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações (Anatel) com base no IGP-DI acumulado em 12 meses, conforme previsto em contrato com as operadoras.
Com base no IPCA, o reajuste é de 14,34 por cento para assinatura residencial e pulsos. No caso de assinatura e habilitação não-residencial, o aumento é de 23,95 por cento. Os percentuais são bem inferiores aos que haviam sido concedidos pela Anatel, de cerca de 24,5 por cento e de mais de 41 por cento, respectivamente.
Representantes das principais operadoras procurados pela Reuters não quiseram comentar o assunto porque ainda não foram notificados oficialmente sobre a decisão judicial.
A polêmica em torno do reajuste na telefonia fixa vem se arrastando desde o final de junho, quando a Anatel havia homologado o aumento. Diversas liminares foram concedidas no âmbito estadual suspendendo a alta na telefonia fixa ou alterando o indexador das tarifas até que o STJ determinou a 2a Vara de Justiça Federal do Distrito Federal como foro competente, após julgar ação de conflito de competência iniciada pela Telemar .
A liminar de quinta-feira foi concedida pelo juiz substituto da 2a Vara Rodrigo Navarro de Oliveira.>
To make a long story short, Lula made a big mistake when fooling around with the Telecom contracts. Now he & the boys understood that you cant mingle on terms of contracts if you want substantial FDI.
Well the issue ended in Justice, this is the first outcome after the Supreme Court determined the Judges in Brasilia should be the ones to handle the matter as the Regulatory Agency resides in Brasilia.
Its going to be a long and bumpy journey until the issue is resolved.
09-12-03
PILLZ:
<A lot of time seems to be spent in small investments. Shouldn't we focus on the bog tickests as a % of one's portfolio? >
Savo, at one time GX bonds represented 40% of my potfolio, today 1%
09-12-03
savonarola:
glutt...<Still upside is worth trying with small amount IMHO>A lot of time seems to be spent in small investments. Shouldn't we focus on the bog tickests as a % of one's portfolio?
09-12-03
Glutt:
atb, your GX question should be answered by true GX experts like Pillz and Leo. In a nutshell, GX stands finally a good chance to be bought which would mean a better prospect for higher recovery value on GX bonds, stocks would cost zero and they seems are nearing to those level. If deal is Ok bonds stand a chance of jumping on market squeeze which can catapult them above miracle 10$ level, so Pax in this cases will buy us Remy Martin by boxes.BUT if the deal is NOT done then I will lose at least 20% of invested. Still upside is worth trying with small amount IMHO
09-12-03
Fox:
Savo about <AnalIstas> & otras yerbas.
Do you think the <Anals> are in any way related to those guys form Nigeria & other places that send e-mails to all of us offering millions of dollars in some Swiss Account?
09-12-03
Glutt:
optimist: <Veny 08 uer crossed par! Congratulation to the holders! > and who told Pinky bad??? Bring in Patient Trader !!!leo, see how opti calls you, ah? This what respect means. Go GX go … up up up… Pax is already probably buying boxes of Remy Martin for us. I got my GX at 5 and cross fingers as carib would have said.
09-12-03
optimist:
Veny 08 uer crossed par! Congratulation to the holders!
09-12-03
leo:
No misunderstanding, I'm not selling my reputation any
way!
09-12-03
leo:
Savo I was just pulling your leg.....
09-12-03
savonarola:
Leo.. you are not Leo <Goldstein> .. you are Leo <Di Caprio>!
09-12-03
leo:
Savo I'm not selling my reputation no matter the price!!!!!
09-12-03
wally:
<amigo> i will go into details later but i just thought of something. i assume that you installed ME "over" (and not "clean") 98 with the option to uninstall ME if you so wish. go to 'control', go to add remove programs, look for ME UNinstall. if my assumption is correct it should show at least a size of 200MB. click on 'remove program' and you will again all that space.
09-12-03
leo:
Pillz I would say bOOOOOM bOOOOOOOM!!
09-12-03
savonarola:
Fox...<Barrionuevo he is still looking for an <OilDuct> in some part of the Ecuatorian Amazon>Which has been built supossedly as a demonstration of Andean Art, soon to be declared Wonder of the World.
But for nonsense, read <Citi's Leo Goldstein> lattest report. We have been asking the mandrill community to produce an oil report on Guano. It looks as if Leo decided to be the first. The problem for Leo is that he did not go to Guano but wrote it from his crystal corner office in New York. So his oil production forcast have no base given that he does not quote the source.
Should he have wanted to write a proper report he should have talked to the companies that built the <decorative> OCP and gather from them what <their> production plans are. He didn't do it, therefore <Goldstein's> report is not worth the paper on which it is written. I am sorry for Citi if they are short Guano. They shouldn't be. Selling his integrity for a pound of flesh will do no good to Leo's reputation.
09-12-03
PILLZ:
Global Crossing 9.500 09 5.50/ 6.00 +0.500 Conseco Inc 9.000 06 59.00/ 61.00 +3.500
Conseco Inc 10.750 08 98.00/100.00 +10.000
bOOOOM
Leo, Conseco Warrants = 5 years
09-12-03
wally:
a legend has gone from us:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertai...
09-12-03
amigo latino:
During the Break- time from non-existent bond opportunities:Just in:
“50 Fixes for the Biggest PC Annoyances”
from the october 2003 issue of PC world
http://channels.netscape.com/ns/wra...
For every body (who has to run and fix their PC all by themselves) , the fixes can be very helpful.
09-12-03
Fox:
Article in today´s La Nacion by Pablo Rojo, this guy is avery good Economist, that was Menem´s first choice or Minister as he is a high profile liberal he latter changed it for Melkonian.http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/argenti...
09-12-03
Chuy:
<WB gives money to build a new road (just an example)>According to some Argentinian Engeneers, the only difference between the highway from Miami to the Florida Keys, and building a bridge from Usuaia to the South Pole is just a matter of <depth>
09-12-03
Fox:
Reading recent comments it seems I got wrong with Lavagna, both K & himself have lowered the temperature substantially.
09-12-03
Fox:
<Brazil would no longer be a net importer of gas from Argentina and Bolivia. Instead, these countries -- and also Peru, which hoped to sell incremental volumes of natural gas to Brazil in coming years -- likely would not be competitive in the domestic Brazilian gas market if they were up against cheaper Brazilian gas, which would be much closer to end users> This may be true for Bolivia & Peru, Bolivia in particular is in big problem it has force Brazil to buy a minimun amount of gas on a yearly basis inspite of the fact that it didnt needed.
Argy is a bit of a different story pay attention to the AR$ & R$ parity this is one of Lavagna's biggest concerns. Mercosur works fine (for Argy & Brazil) with AR$ & R$ close to parity, today Argy & Brazil are complementary economies one country being more industrialised than the other. Argy Gas goes to Chile & Brazil, finally TGS is part of the Oil & Gas network of Petrobras.
09-12-03
optimist:
atb: scroll a few pages back, and you ll know - Leo the Great is pushing GX hard.. That's the sole reason (plus strong telco sector in the US, but this doesnt matter a lot:)))
09-12-03
Fox:
Savo <business is not to buy bonds, but to buy good bonds in times when nobody wants them.> You have a better way with words than I do!
Clearly after the bust/economic debacle we go to the <JunkYard> & look for goodies. You & Nautilus were the first to find <Mendoza> in the Argy Junk Yard.
Clearly this cannot be accomplished following the advice of your favorite <Analista> Barrionuevo he is still looking for an <OilDuct> in some part of the Ecuatorian Amazon.
09-12-03
Fox:
<on TCP as soon as FOx gives me the green light i will begin taking TCP up...but in the meantime i will continue to only BUY argi crap>
Cheetah Compadre,
I know nothing about equities I have some limited knowledge of economics & sometimes the best asset I have to execute my view are equities.
Example, during last year crisis I used 3 assets: BLX, UBB & B40.
Today's equtity market in Brazil is for equity traders not for <Fox> the only equity I still carry is EMT but no so much because of Brazil but is part of my play in WorldCom.
Mind you Im crazy enough to go into <pink sheets> & trade <MCWEQ> http://www.pinksheets.com/. This of course is trading <Ice> depending when you go in it may melt before you sell it.
Thus today I invest in <Argy Cucarachas> based in my Macro view of Argy/World & my Micro view of how local capital will react to existing opportunities & every once in a while I play around with <Ice> & some BioTech Madness.I also carry a <SpalPortfolio> but this is an absolutely different ball game Spal knows what he is doing.
;-))
09-12-03
atb:
Does anyone have a view on the recent run up on GX bonds?
09-12-03
C-Banker:
< leo: Does someone follow this bond> Seems to be very illiquid. 8,6 % p.a./ ask 92,00 = 9,34 % current yield : forget it :-))
09-12-03
leo:
Does someone follow this bond?????Quite an interesting one.....yields more than republic of phil,price is under par and risk is the same of the republic......what do you think?http://quotes.ubs.com/quotes/X0=5/X...
09-12-03
leo:
I'm planning to sell some shares and buy some warrants....
09-12-03
leo:
Pillz ,sheik,when will Conseco warrants expire?
09-12-03
Glutt:
carib: <Wally <WB loans> correct, but if the WB gives money to build a new road (just an example) the government can spend the money thus saved on other things. I do not think Argentina is a poor country, in need of <development aid>. It's a badly managed country, in need of political reform. > BINGO! it is funny yesterday i was discussing exactly the same with one my friends
09-12-03
leo:
Pillz if I remember well SING TEL is supposed to inject another 250 mio if the deal is approved......so they(gx)will not have an immediate need of capital....
09-12-03
Advice55:
Chee, chee, congrats on your TEO, for you and for fox!Do not get too excited although!
Joking, realy, congratiulations cheetah, you got it right once again!
Regards!
09-12-03
moneypenny:
Carib: You are right. I agree completely.
09-12-03
Cheetah:
"melting" mis-Advice55 style...
how mistakn can you be Advice55 ???
"Your <TEO> on the other hand is stuck on the meeedle of the 50 days and 21 days average and has a needle on the sell side....
If it starts to trade lower again, you will have to call super man to get a bid!"
i guess "superman" appeared !!!
da dada da da da SUPERMAN !!!
09-12-03
Cheetah:
carib: concerning the <brasil bragging competition>what's this ???
just check out last year the QUALITY and STRENGH and CONSISTENCY behind the BUY Brazil calls...
NO hedging was allowed...just check the few that were ONLY BUY BUY BUY...with out any excuses...no but's or if's !!!
then you can list the Brazil competition winners...

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