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Posted by
BradyNet
(
Friday, September 12, '03
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I consider my intellectual battle against Turkey, (and Colombia and Uruguay) irreversibly lost. I am unable to find any reason why any person in his right mind would be willing to allocate capital to any of those three. Yet they are.. so for me, case closed. White flag.
Exactly.. that is why I thought it was fair to post that I have sold 50% of my remaining Brazil (I had sold all my corps some time ago) which is something that I do not normally do, meaning that I do not normally post the particular day in which I buy or sell although I usually post what do I buy or what do I sell.
fox...<what are you planning to do with the cash <savo.?> > I think the best risk reward at the moment is in Veni, Guano, Mendoza and Galicia.
Nonetheless, given that, as I said yesterday, timing is not one of my virtues, if I have any, I hope that Brazil continues performing well so that I can sell what I have left.
O mercado de telecomunicações dava como certa, desde o último dia 27, que a decisão final da Justiça seria a de conceder o reajuste pelo IGP-DI nas tarifas de telefonia fixa, o que representaria um aumento maior para o consumidor.
Entretanto, a decisão de hoje da Justiça Federal de Brasília, que confirma o aumento pelo IPCA, apesar de provisória, foi vista como um sinal negativo para as empresas do setor.
No dia 27 de agosto, o STJ (Superior Tribunal de Justiça) havia indicado o Tribunal de Brasília como o foro competente para julgar a questão, o que poderia derrubar a decisão anterior da Justiça do Ceará, favorável ao IPCA.
"Estávamos acreditando que o Tribunal de Brasília poderia optar por manter provisoriamente o reajuste pelo IPCA enquanto obtinha tempo para estudar com mais detalhes a matéria. Entretanto, os argumentos utilizados pelo juiz em seu despacho nos preocupam", disse a analista do Banco Brascan, Roberta Kosaka de Oliveira.
Segundo ela, apesar das empresas poderem contestar a decisão, a argumentação do juiz indica um "viés político", como no caso do Tribunal de Fortaleza.
O juiz Rodrigo Navarro de Oliveira disse que a aplicação do IGP-DI nas tarifas do serviço fixo se mostra "abusiva".
Roberta afirmou que as empresas de telefonia móvel também serão afetadas por essa interpretação.
"A decisão abre um precedente de 'quebra de contrato' que potencialmente é negativo para todo o setor de telecom. O que mais nos preocupou foi a argumentação do juiz de que a regra contratual pode ser modificada quando o valor da tarifa se mostrar desproporcional à prestação do serviço", disse>
<THIS IS A BUSINESS OF MAKING MONEY NOT GLORY>
Maturity of options on monday will take a lot of sellers out for the week, locoal sellers!
PD: My balance sheet is in USD.
"Después de la primera oferta, seguro que va a haber un rechazo y la realidad irá indicando qué es lo que se puede hacer", dijo el titular del Palacio de Hacienda, en declaraciones efectuadas en el programa Desayuno que emite Canal 7.
A pesar de sus comentarios, Lavagna sostuvo que la Argentina "va a hacer una oferta creíble y pagable" durante la asamblea anual del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) que se realizará en Dubai. El lunes 22 del actual, en el salón Al Lulu del centro de convenciones de Dubai, la Argentina definirá con el mayor detalle posible la propuesta de reestructuración de la deuda.
"La oferta será mejor que la situación actual, en la que (los acreedores) no están cobrando", señaló. >
PD: Just in case soemeone asks, Barbell: Consists of the two extremes of the risk spectrum cash & a very risky asset.
IF Lula stays course, the high interest rates may become a problem of the past. There is room for a long period of declining domestic rates (Think in Argentina domestic rates are at 6%). and in the context of a stable real. This would imply dramatic reductions in the deficit without any reduction in other spending or rising taxes. Debt/GDP would also keep falling.
Success is not granted, politicians can sc..ew almost anything. But but it is possible.
US debt dynamics are leading in a far worse direction....
I can offer a glance back to my own post:
http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/em/1000...
and other Colores comments, in particular a thoughtful response from
Gaucho.
In retrospect, I was wrong. To be fair, those of us who were skeptical on Brazil in 2002 did not predict immediate Argy-style default, only pointed out that the present situation is unsustainable.
Today the acute financial crisis of mid-2002 is far behind, and Lula is doing right things. Yet my feeling is that these reforms, while necessary, won't be nearly enough.
How exactly this situation is "sustainable" when Brazil keeps borrowing
at 11-12% (or more on the internal market) with near-zero economic growth (and actually in recession in the last 6 months), and no signs of a radical economic upturn?
While there is no immediate danger of default or going back to August-
September 2002 situation, it is quite possible that Brazil will bounce
from one crisis to another - as it did since 1998 - with tepid recoveries, weak average growth and gradually deteriorating debt. Eventually it will have to do some restructuring and radical departure from the course of the last several years - sky-high interest rates and piling debt on and on.
Why didnt someone explain Duhalde that "legally perfect" contracts are suposed to be respected?
My take was that he is hoping that creditors dont send him to hell!
@ times faster than others but the boys learn ;-))
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