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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, September 12, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Two 9/11s, one story 09-12-03 (guardian.co.uk) On the morning of September 11 I watched aircraft flying overhead. Minutes later I heard explosions and saw fireballs of smoke fill the sky. As a result of these attacks thousands died, including two good friends.

Trade Deficit Widens to $40.3B in July 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - America's trade deficit expanded in July to $40.3 billion as imported goods from China and the quantity of overseas crude oil sold to the United States each hit record highs.

Job Market Weak Despite Growth Signs 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans are finding it unexpectedly tough to hold onto their jobs but other areas of the economy are showing signs of a pickup, two government reports out on Thursday showed.

US trade gap swells 09-12-03 (BBC) The US trade deficit widened slightly in July as consumers bought the second highest level of imported goods on record, according to official figures.

Argentine leader set to sign IMF deal 09-11-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentine President Nestor Kirchner was on the verge of signing an elusive deal with the IMF (news - web sites), one day after missing a three-billion-dollar loan repayment, a government source said.

IMF strikes positive note 09-11-03 (guardian.co.uk) The International Monetary Fund yesterday added its voice to optimism about the prospects for the global economy, saying rock-bottom interest rates and ADVERTISEMENT the "remarkable resilience" of financial markets had left firms poised to invest.

LATIN AMERICA

IDB Approves Peru Pipeline Project Loan 09-12-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - The Inter-American Development Bank on Wednesday approved $135 million in financing to support construction of a controversial natural gas pipeline project in Peru that environmentalists contend represents a threat to the country's rain forests.

Perus Amazon gas project approved 09-12-03 (BBC) The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) has approved $135m in financing for Peru's controversial Camisea natural gas project.

Argentina payment secures temporary respite in debt battle 09-12-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES (AFP) - Argentina made a 2.9 billion dollar payment to the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) but a new debt restructuring accord has done little to reassure private bankers.

Chile Takes Painful Look at Coup 30 Years Later 09-12-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - A prosperous and democratic Chile painfully looked back 30 years on Thursday to the military coup on Sept. 11, 1973 that split the nation and ushered in 17 years of dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet (news - web sites).

Brazil seeks to reassure markets on policy 09-12-03 (Financial Times) The Brazilian government has sought to reassure investors that it will continue to pursue an agenda of sound economic reforms whether or not it renews an accord with the International Monetary Fund later this year.

Brazilians Soured by U.S. Sugar Tariffs 09-11-03 (Washington Post) SERTAOZINHO, Brazil -- Wearing a straw hat, shin guards and goggles, Joaquim Batista dos Santos swings his machete in wide, looping arcs, hacking away at the eight-foot-high stalks of sugar cane like a baseball player warming up in the on-deck circle.

ASIA

Indonesians Plan Exploring for Iraq Oil 09-12-03 (Yahoo) JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina oil company will restart an oil and gas exploration project in Iraq (news - web sites) interrupted earlier this year by the U.S.-led attack on that nation, the company said Thursday.

China tumbles in white goods 09-11-03 (Financial Times) Many of China's leading washing machine makers have been bought out or gone bankrupt in recent months, confounding expectations the mainland's low-cost manufacturers would become dominant international players.

AFRICA

Refuge for the Wild, With No Land Mines, Please 09-12-03 (NY Times) IMPOPO NATIONAL PARK, Mozambique, Sept. 4 � Wildlife specialists released seven elephants into this new game sanctuary the other day, and Santos Ngoverne, dressed in a blue plaid shirt and battered sandals, was on hand to watch.

End cotton subsidies demands Africa 09-12-03 (BBC) World Trade Organisation chief Supachai Panitchpakdi is reviewing demands by African cotton producers for an end to subsidies paid to farmers in richer countries.

Africans Burden: Wests Farm Subsidies 09-11-03 (NY Times) ASESE, Uganda � Erikangin Thembo does not think much about agricultural policy as he farms. Sweating in the midday heat, he keeps his mind focused on the earth in front of him. He raises his hoe above his head. With a grunt, he sends it plummeting into the rich soil.

OIL PRICES

Australian hunt for African oil 09-12-03 (BBC) An Australian consortium has started exploration drilling at the Chinguetti oilfield off the coast of Mauritania, Perth-based company Hardman Resources has announced.

Casting a Cold Eye on Arctic Oil 09-11-03 (NY Times) RCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, Alaska � Here's a helpful hint for backpackers here in the Arctic: If you're lying in your sleeping bag and suddenly feel a pat on the behind from outside the tent, YELL!

Newest messages appear on top.

09-12-03 Advice55: This if you are a clipper, cause if you are a trader, no quastion you should have sold in june, the chart tell us that, but you should also have bought it back already....

Another option for the clipper, would have been shorting down the maturity, maybe br04, br06....

Cause, than you sold in june and what, what did you do with the money?

Money market untill now?

Bought 10year treasuries?

Bought some stocks?

Bought some ARGY bonds?

09-12-03 Advice55: <Cbond did not perform as well as the 27 & 40>

ohh, I see, soo maybe it was not a question of have sold your Brazil position, it was a question of swaping your Brazil position, from 27 and 40�s into CBonds, back there in june....

And what about accrued interest?

Do we still trade clean prices?

09-12-03 Advice55: <May question is SOT will make these bonds reach these nominal values with a 10 yr UST of 4.50 or 4.25%>

I think yes they will even if 10y stays were it is...

The improvement in Brazil from june to now (fundamental improovment), in my opinion, is worth more than 100b.p. (IE moovement in 10YTYields.

I think yes, we will test the highs and maybe even brake through....

09-12-03 Fox: <What was the high of the CBond in dolar price carib?> Cbond did not perform as well as the 27 & 40.

09-12-03 Advice55: <that is some 10 points below present levels...>

You mean above?

Right, I did not see this BR40 @ 103...

What was the high of the CBond in dolar price carib?

09-12-03 Fox: <Hey fox, did you read this?> yes I saw it this morning. Refer to Carib's last post.
Yes, Carib Br40 traded @ 103 Br27 I saw trades @ 99 but it may well have been @ par. All this took place with 10yr UST @ 3.15. May question is SOT will make these bonds reach these nominal values with a 10 yr UST of 4.50 or 4.25%?

09-12-03 merugo: <savonarola:...I consider my intellectual battle against Turkey, (and Colombia and Uruguay) irreversibly lost. I am unable to find any reason why any person in his right mind would be willing to allocate capital to any of those three.> Rather simple, USA cannot afford living without white crescent, white floor and white knights.

09-12-03 wally: <La oferta ser� mejor que la situaci�n actual, en la que (los acreedores) no est�n cobrando", se�al�> what wisdom! anything above zero is of course better than the prevailing situation of "zero"!

09-12-03 wally: <Just got a new Mac G5...looks like a beauty...> but more than double the price of the beauty i bought 10 days ago. and if i have a technical breakdown (motherboard exepted) i repair the beauty myself within 20 minutes maximum :~))

09-12-03 carib: Advice: (first posting using G5) I think Br40 top was around 103, and I remember seeing even Br27 @par. that is some 10 points below present levels...

09-12-03 Advice55: Hey fox, did you read this?

Governo enxuga US$ 9 bi e ainda sobra oferta de hedge

Os exportadores est�o inundando o mercado de hedge cambial - instrumentos financeiros para prote��o contra oscila��es no c�mbio - e, com a queda na demanda, h� sobra de oferta. O resultado � que o governo federal p�de cortar em mais de US$ 9 bilh�es desde o in�cio do ano at� ontem o hedge que ele fornece ao mercado, por meio de t�tulos indexados ao c�mbio e contratos de troca de indexadores ("swaps"), ou 76,5% do total que vencia, sem pressionar o c�mbio. No ano, o d�lar caiu 17,77%. Os c�lculos sobre o enxugamento de hedge s�o de Adauto Lima, economista do Banco WestLB do Brasil, e consideram os juros dos "swaps" do governo. Mesmo com esse enxugamento, sobra hedge e os bancos est�o disputando palmo a palmo os poucos clientes interessados - fechando at� mesmo opera��es com spread negativo, o que acaba impactando o mercado � vista de d�lar ou "spot". N�o � � toa que o Banco do Brasil p�de comprar mais US$ 2,5 bilh�es para o Tesouro Nacional no mercado sem alta nas cota��es. O estoque de hedge no setor privado estava em US$ 36,427 bilh�es em agosto, queda de 17% na compara��o com os mais de US$ 44 bilh�es de igual m�s do ano passado. Neste ano, a queda � de 9%. O total do estoque em agosto foi ligeiramente - 5,5% - mais forte do que os US$ 34,545 bilh�es em julho, mas os especialistas n�o v�em qualquer tend�ncia de recupera��o da demanda no curto prazo. Os n�meros utilizados foram dos contratos registrados na Cetip (Central de Cust�dia e de Liquida��o Financeira de T�tulos) de d�lar a termo (conhecido como "forward") e de troca ("swaps") de d�lar por juros dos Dep�sitos Interfinanceiros (DI). Foram consideradas as opera��es entre clientes e o mercado (bancos) e entre os bancos. Os n�meros em reais foram convertidos em d�lar pela taxa m�dia fornecida pelo Banco Central, conhecida como ptax. A redu��o no investimento direto externo neste ano em rela��o ao ano passado contribui para a demanda menor de hedge de patrim�nio, lembra Carlos Alberto Melo, diretor-gerente para mercados locais da Am�rica Latina do Banco WestLB do Brasil. Empresas e bancos, principalmente os americanos, consolidam seus balan�os internacionais e tendem a fazer hedge at� mesmo do capital investido no pa�s, completa Alberto Gaidys, diretor do BankBoston. Tamb�m est�o fora do mercado de hedge muitas empresas que s�o grandes tomadoras - as que t�m d�vida em d�lar e faturamento em reais, lembra Paulo Brito, vice-presidente s�nior do WestLB Banco Europeu. Algumas delas, como a Eletropaulo, a BCP e a Embratel, por terem passado ou ainda estarem em processo de reestrutura��o de suas d�vidas. Outras empresas com receitas em reais t�m optado por reduzir sua d�vida em d�lar. A Telemar Participa��es captou neste ano R$ 150 milh�es para quitar d�vida externa de US$ 75 milh�es. A Tele Norte Celular preferiu usar o caixa para amortizar empr�stimo externo de US$ 8 milh�es em setembro, preferindo rolar d�vida em real. J� a Cemig vai quitar US$ 150 milh�es em d�vida externa neste ano utilizando-se de recursos do BNDES. Ao reduzirem sua d�vida em d�lar, reduzem a necessidade de hedge. A baixa demanda por cr�dito em d�lar n�o se resume �s empresas do setor de servi�os. Os importadores t�m tomado poucas linhas � importa��o de curto prazo e, por conseguinte, precisam de pouco hedge cambial. Al�m disso, o cupom cambial - juros para os investimentos em d�lar no mercado interno - baixo faz com que as empresas tenham de pagar mais do que o DI quando fazem hedge de seus passivos externos, pelo menos no curto prazo. Isso desestimula o endividamento em d�lar, inclusive pelos bancos, e a necessidade de hedge de passivo cai. J� os exportadores continuam a tomar d�vida em d�lar, mas usam as pr�prias exporta��es, de valor crescente, como hedge. Neste ano, at� agora, as exporta��es cresceram 24,4%, passando de US$ 37 bilh�es para US$ 45,5 bilh�es, o que significa um acr�scimo de hedge de US$ 8,5 bilh�es. A CSN, por exemplo, faz hedge para seus passivos em d�lar - 85% do total de US$ 1,75 bilh�o no final do primeiro semestre. Mas, segundo o diretor financeiro, Octavio Lazcano, as exporta��es, que podem chegar a US$ 700 milh�es neste ano, s�o consideradas como hedge natural. Mais exporta��es no pa�s, mais hedge natural. Tamb�m desestimula a tomada de hedge a baixa volatilidade no c�mbio - h� empresas que preferem ficar com risco cambial nessas situa��es, fazendo o que Gaidys chama de "especula��o passiva. valor online

09-12-03 Advice55: Soo you are reducing Brazil right?

Maybe you are right, maybe copom will reduce interest rates once again 1.5 to 2% next week and the real instead of going to 3, goes just a little above 2.91 for 15 minutes and melts down to 2.85 and than what happens to CBonds? What happens to Brazil bonds?

They go down?

What happened after last copom meeting?

And this telecom issue will be out of the way before a lot of you expect I believe....

But maybe you are right, let us wait for a correction! That is what every one around is saying.... Funny, every one is saying Brazil will correct for about 2 weeks now, they must be saying this and doing another thing, right?

09-12-03 wally: <my ISP and Wally's AOL dislike each other> that was not yeterday's problem <carib>. all other mail was fine except for the fact that apple compresses several *.jpgs into a compressed *.mim file (your last mail) which a 'normal' PC cannot decompress and open.

09-12-03 Advice55: And fox, what is the size of the moovement in 10year treasuries we are talking about? I�m realy confused now....

09-12-03 Advice55: <Im not even arguing that you are not right e.g. that Brazil will go to 550 or 500 SOT. But for me SOT doenst really matter I should have reduced my Brazilian exposure in June when 10yr UST was in its lows. Now it is going to take a long time before I get the same amount of dollars for my bonds even is spreads do go down.>

Fox, maybe I am too young, but it looks like in dolar price Brazil is very mutch close to the year highs, right?

And you had accrued interest in that time, the carry, clip, clip, clip....

Soo I realy do not understand why you say the amount of dolars now will be less than in june...

I realy do not, are you sure about that?

Sorry if it is a stupid question, but you got me confused now....

09-12-03 savonarola: victor.. my love affair with Brazil has only been an opportunistic one. I bought in 02 having not owned any Brazil since 1995, and only after <J'accusse>. I bought sovs and corps but I always said that Brazil was a trade for me, as opposed to Guano and Veni which are <accumulates> I posted several times that while I wanted Brazil prices to go up, I feel more comfortable when Guano and Veni prices when they go down. I sold the Bra corps and now I am selling the sovs. Hopefully I am wrong, and the remaining sovs I will be able to sell them at a higher price.

It is not because that I like oil that I buy Guano and Veni. In the case of Veni it is because of the ratio external debt to reserves that I believe that Veni is underpriced. In the case of Guano, because I believe that they do not have a commercial external debt problem. Obviously it is because of oil that I believe that they will pay us, but it is not oil the reason per se.

09-12-03 amigo latino: The following should precede my posting on dating

( Today at around 8am, electicity was off and after the battery was dead, I went around to say hello to two female acqauaintances in govt offices( they are very pretty) �so the thoughts are on women and romance. Some thing much better to do than wandering in a bond zone with no buying opportunities )

For those who are looking for a woman or to reminisce about your dating days (if you are married):

09-12-03 amigo latino: <Run Fast! Women to Avoid Dating By Laura Snyder

Sure, there are plenty of fish in the sea, but that doesn't mean you have to try every species. While you're entitled to your own taste, there are some varieties of girls that you just don't want sitting across the table from you on your first date.

If you hook one of these gals next time you're casting lines, better cut bait and dip your net in saner waters.

The Princess: Should you chance an encounter with her majesty, expect a long delay while she repairs that chipped nail polish and applies her second coat of makeup�� why you're not dressed up enough, why your car isn't fancy enough, and why you're taking her to a second-rate restaurant.

The Shadow : If you can't escape to the bathroom without your date demanding to know where you're going and when you'll be back -- and then waiting for you outside the door anyway -- you're dating A Shadow.

The Mother Hen : Five minutes into your date and she's already straightened your tie, corrected your pronunciation, and licked a stray hair into place? The Debate Queen

Think you know all about this one? Well, you're wrong. In fact, with her, you're always wrong. And she's happy to remind you of all the times you were wrong before�.. > http://channels.netscape.com/ns/lov...

Comments and fond memories (recuerdos) ?

09-12-03 carib: Glutt: I guess <ladronvagna> will try pulling a fast one with a 70%+ cut. In that case, I guess we are in for one more year of bla bla...

09-12-03 carib: Savo: concerning compatibility, I almost never experience problems sending and receiving PDF files and Excel/Word files to/from PCs. Occasionally I have problems opening files sent by Nautilus, but I am not sure that is due to Apple. Never had problems, for example, with Colores files.

09-12-03 Glutt: <<necessary to stop and look > back>

09-12-03 carib: Amigo: Mendoza bond @66. Mendoza wine cheaper...;-)))

09-12-03 Glutt: does Lavagnadronia means an offer of 50% shave off instead of 70% or does he thinks investors will rejoice if ARG shaves off 70% instead of 80% ? amigo, of course for those smart who never bought or very timely sold ARG an option to speculate is open... though i am not certain about those who bought it and held through... they now gather on www.b-wiebel.de which is joke & pain in one. for this reason sometimes it is necessary to stop and look and be scared once in a while... IMHO

09-12-03 carib: http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APP...

09-12-03 victorn: savo, i am asking because i am on the opposite side of your trade: yes to col, and no to brasil. I just wanted to know why your analysis led you to give a "no" to col, and a "yes" to brasil. Since you like to invest in oil countries, col also has oil for export. So why do you give a no to col?

09-12-03 carib: Glutt/Savo: I got a G5 1.8 GHz with 1GB of RAM. Is's just out of the box, and not yet plugged in. Also a nice 20" flat panel, much bigger than my old 17". The main compatibility problems I have are not with PCs, but with...AOL: my ISP and Wally's AOL dislike each other... Anyway, I also have <Virtual PC> software, a program that uses 1,6GB of your hard drive to set up a "virtual PC" using MS windows XP professional...so when you get a file that does not work with Mac, you use that software. It solved my old problem of not seeing JPM prices, for instance. However, if you have a small drive and little RAM it slows you down quite a bit. But with 200GB drives and 1GB RAM, it's no probl. I was just looking at Amigo's trouble: on a Mac, to see which programs are running in a given moment, you just look to the dock located at the bottom of the screen....and if you want to close a program, you just click on it...

09-12-03 amigo latino: <carib: In order to adapt to Dr. Savo famous medicine, I bought some <Mendoza> today...>

Bonds or the wine ? IF the answer were to be bonds, at what price( I watch Mendoza bonds).

09-12-03 amigo latino: Lavagna: about the bond reestructuring offer: "La oferta ser� mejor que la situaci�n actual, en la que (los acreedores) no est�n cobrando", se�al�.

Then time to buy Agy sovereigns � :-)))

09-12-03 savonarola: carib...<Just got a new Mac G5>

I was a Mac user until some years ago when I switched to PC because of compatibility, etc....

Were those issues resolved? meaning, can you send and receive docs, spreadshits, pdfs, etc... and open them without any difficulty?

I am asking because I would like to go back.

09-12-03 Glutt: craib, WHICH ONE of them?

http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APP...

09-12-03 carib: In order to adapt to Dr. Savo famous medicine, I bought some <Mendoza> today...

09-12-03 savonarola: victor....<savo, why is it better to buy brasil bonds than colombia bonds (apart from the yield)?>

I don't know... you tell me.... I am selling Brazil and never owned any Colombia!

09-12-03 carib: week-end approaches...time to talk non-money matters. Just got a new Mac G5...looks like a beauty...

09-12-03 carib: Alex:< genious>...please, refer compliments to SPAL, who first suggested buying ALVR

09-12-03 Alexander: <<<09-12-03 carib: Alvarion above 7$... >>>>

congratulations, you are a genius !!!

09-12-03 victorn: savo, why is it better to buy brasil bonds than colombia bonds (apart from the yield)?

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