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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, September 18, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*IMF Says Global Economy Poised for Growth 09-18-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The global economy appears poised for growth, but the advance will be uneven and the recent collapse of trade talks in Mexico could foretell a worrisome slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) said Thursday.
*Women Called Mideasts Untapped Resource 09-18-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 16 — The World Bank said today that women remain a "huge, untapped" economic resource in the Middle East and North Africa, where more women workers are needed to transform economies that must depend increasingly on private-sector exports to compete worldwide.
*US economic folly should worry us all 09-18-03 (Yahoo) Think before gloating over Bush's spectacular fiscal incompetence
*Bush Links Pollution Measure to His Effort to Create Jobs 09-18-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 16 — President Bush made a pitch today for his plan to reduce air pollution, and while he outlined the environmental benefits, his focus was just as much on the issues that his advisers say are more likely than any others to determine his chances at re-election: jobs and the economy.
*Globalizing economy? Not so fast 09-17-03 (csmonitor.com) WASHINGTON – The movement toward greater economic integration of nations - one of the most profound global trends of the age - hit trouble this week.
*Wars mixed impact on a reviving economy 09-17-03 (csmonitor.com) Adding in the $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan recently requested by President Bush, America's spending for defense will exceed that of all other nations combined.
*Job Losses Unsettle Republicans 09-17-03 (Washington Post) Congressional Republicans are watching warily as President Bush's approval ratings slide on two major issues -- the economy and Iraq -- and wondering if voter anxiety might cost them seats in next year's election.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Songs of Chile ring out again 09-18-03 (Yahoo) It has been 30 years since democracy was shoved aside in a country oppressed by an imperialist superpower. Books were censored, and there were preparations for a law that would have made criticising the great power a crime.
*Brazil Pushes for South American Trade Pact 09-18-03 (NY Times) OGOTÁ, Colombia, Sept. 16 - Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, is pushing hard to form a continentwide trade pact by the end of the year that would give South American nations greater leverage as the United States pursues its own trade agreement for the hemisphere.

 RUSSIA
*Chevron eyes Russian oil 09-17-03 (sfgate.com) ChevronTexaco is trying to gain a major toehold in Russia by bidding for a 25 percent stake in YukosSibneft, one of that nation's petroleum giants, according to news reports.

 ASIA
*Jitters in the Philippines 09-18-03 (NY Times) epeated coup rumors and allegations of corruption in high places are destabilizing the Philippine government at a time when it needs more than ever to focus on repairing the battered economy and fighting poverty.

 OIL PRICES
*Fire erupts at Iraqi oil pipeline 09-18-03 (Yahoo) BAGHDAD (AFP) - A fire has erupted at an oil pipeline 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Baghdad, with the commander of US ground forces saying it was not known whether it resulted from sabotage.
*Oil prices dip sharply after rise in US energy stocks 09-18-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (AFP) - Oil prices fell sharply, hitting near-four month lows after weekly figures showed a bigger than expected rise in US stocks of crude oil and gasoline. (no summary)
*Opec invites Iraq to attend oil meeting 09-17-03 (Financial Times) Opec invited Iraq on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the oil group for the first time since the US-led war against Saddam Hussein.
*Trans-Alaska Gas Pipeline Gets Backing 09-17-03 (Washington Post) Signaling initial progress in drafting energy legislation, top Republican negotiators announced yesterday that they had agreed to endorse a trans-Alaska route for a new pipeline carrying natural gas to U.S. markets while delaying decisions on possible federal subsidies.
 
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09-18-03  wally: <To me it is self evident that the creditors of argentina are 100% right, de jure> that goes without saying <carib>. i don't even understand why it takes some courts that long to hand out rulings. in Germany all (higher court) rulings are suspended until the Bundesverfassungsgericht (Supreme Constitutional Court) will decide whether Argentina (as presented by her lawyers in appeals) has the right to claim a "status of emergency".

09-18-03  Cheetah: wally: <i prefer veni...and ecu and farc> SURPRISE <cheetah>! since when do you prefer FARC?

since i have sold all my Brazil on average a couple of points under current levels...

veni has performed nicely...guano is guano with a new pipeline...and both have oil support which is defensive from Brazil reality check (unpayable debt - insolvency, which is not illiquidity)...

farc has such support from GNOME that even with a crash in Brazil it should hold up...


09-18-03  amigo latino: DR Unprivatization News: DR pivatized electricity distribution and generation 4 years ago. Union Fenosa of Spain became the distributor.

Supposedly for the poor service offered by Union Fenosa, the govt renationalized the distribution service harmoniously---Union Fenos is happy about it, Inter American Development Bank went along with it(IADB lent some money to Union Fenosa at the time of privatization) and the DR govt is presenting it as a case of kicking out the bad distributor.

My guess: Union Fenosa wanted out(in secret) because of the bill collections problems and depreciation dominican currency. So they initiated in secret conversations with the govt, which in turn started theatrical performance: giving warning to Fenosa that the company will be deprivatized if the service is not improved. So finally the DR govt made good on the “threat.

Cost to the govt: 500 million dollars to be paid during 12 yrs at an interest rate of 12%. Fenosa paid a price of only 240 millions dollars at the time of privatization(which they never actually paid – Instead they supposed invested in the distribution and critics say that normal expenditures were put in the investment category).

Apparently every body is happy—DR, Union Fenosa, and IADB !

Well, Union Fenosa reciprocated the generosity of DR govt: The Spanish royalty and Aznar arranged a great royal reception for DR president a couple of days ago!

And shame to the IMF: Did not they just conclude an agreement with the DR without voicing any objections to the whole charade of deprivatization ?


09-18-03  carib: Wally: please understand that in my "feeling right" I completely separate my private interests from what I consider public interest. That is the way an honest political mind should work. To me it is self evident that the creditors of argentina are 100% right, de jure. De facto, it is impossible to satisfy integrally their legal claims (100% right now, plus interest damages and cost). So a reasonable compromise must be struck. to that end, both sides must be "reasonable"...and a sufficiently large stick must be carried. My concern is only about the size of the stick. (in Rooseveltian sense).

09-18-03  wally: <carib: Amigo: what about a generator?> no way! that would invite the criminals immediately to rob one of the mighty investors in DR!

:~))


09-18-03  wally: <carib: Wally: i do not know, but reading the proceedings in Judge Griesa court <<<made me feel all right.>>>> we have a proverb in Germany which means: "being right does not necessarily mean to gain access to this right".

<They appear to know what they are talking about> "they"? it was a ruling from a single U.S. Federal Judge. but i agree that "he" really seems to know what he is talking about.


09-18-03  wally: <amigo <Unknown: After accounting for 450 mb of free space and 157 mb for Win 98, in disk C, about 1.4 gb is used . By what programs?>>

-open drive C

-open folder "program files"

there you might find a lot of BS or unused programs (in individual folders) which you can delete. many programs have their own "uninstal". check and report what you found.


09-18-03  carib: Amigo: what about a generator?

09-18-03  amigo latino: Victor: In DR the power supply situation is deteriorating progressively. Now we are having power cuts on a daily basis. Sometimes multiple cuts in a day lasting 1-5 hours. Just now power came after an absence of about 3 hours and it is the second cut of the day(first cut in the morning of 1 hour)

09-18-03  carib: Let me add that I do not consider the Dart action "disrupting". I see the lavagna action as negative. If they make a proposal (let us see on monday) that is pure shit, Mr Blackman's arguments fall. IMHO. Kieguel's paper, on the other hand, sounds very reasonable.

09-18-03  carib: Wally: i do not know, but reading the proceedings in Judge Griesa court made me feel all right. They appear to know what they are talking about, and little bullshit. Time is little concern for me. I can wait 15 years if need be.

09-18-03  carib: Victorn: I disagree completely: the task of providing jobs does not belong to the government, but mosty to the priovate economy. Argentina already has far too many civil servants (remember the "gnocchi"?) the task of the government is to write and implement rules of the game that allow the private economy to prosper. a prosperous private economy also increases revenue, thus allowing better public services. The Argentinos get it the other way around, and clearly that does nor work. It's pure, unrefined bullshit.They should start by jaling some of the "gordos" trade unionists, if they want more "jobs" to materialize.

09-18-03  amigo latino: wally:

1) You are right wrt to the avaikable disk space if the Win 98 (unused) is uninstalled. The space freed 157 mb

2) < Add/Remove Programs -click on tab 'windows setup'. look at all installed components and list them >

Accessories 6.3 mb

Addressbook 1.8 mb

Communications 5.2 mb

Desktop themes 0.0

Games 0.0

Multilanguage 0.0

Online servbices 0.0

System tools 0.1 mb

Web TV for windows 0.0

In the last 3-4 days, I did uncheck(moved to disk D ) multilanguages, web TV, online services and the total space freed is not much—-10-15mb.

3) Unknown: After accounting for 450 mb of free space and 157 mb for Win 98, in disk C, about 1.4 gb is used . By what programs?.


09-18-03  wally: <rolf <carib>> don't forget that Judge Griesa is nothing but the first station the train rolled in. as far as i know there are two more steps for appeal granted (one definitely) where three judges will make a decision. just a simple appeal, most probably submitted one hour before the deadline of 45 days and guess what? Judge Griesa is out in the cold and forgotten till the next case is presented to him. we have seen under U.S. jurisdiction an avalanche of "single judge" and even jury rulings which were rendered null and void by the appeals court. as it takes an average of two years for the appeals court to rule is the reason why Ladronvagna and Kirchner have a lot of time to think of extending and expanding the argentine highway robbery.

09-18-03  Jackie: QUITO -(Dow Jones)- The Fiscal Commission in Ecuador's congress is taking a dim view on the $18 a barrel oil price on which the government has based its 2004 budget. Commission president Jaime Estrada told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday his panel considers the price forecast too low, given that a new heavy oil pipeline that comes on stream next month will free up the Andean nation's other Sote pipeline to transport a lighter, higher-priced crude. Until now, the Sote has transported a mix of heavy and light crudes. The new pipeline should therefore raise the value of part of the crude that Ecuador sells, Estrada reasoned. But the Fiscal Commission head declined to say what he thought an appropriate base price should be, noting that he was awaiting studies currently underway on the issue. The heavy oil pipeline, called the OCP, should transport some 150,000 barrels a day. But Ecuadorean state-oil company, Petroecuador, has so far been unable to raise its production, which in August averaged 276,652 b/d. Total projected 2004 oil output amounts to 192.2 million barrels, of which 73.5 million barrels will come from Petroecuador and the balance 118.7 million barrels from private operators. The budget foresees 135 million barrels exported next year, while internal consumption should hit 57.2 million barrels. Next year's budget totals $7.09 billion, of which $1.22 billion, or 17%, should come from oil revenues. Oil exports should contribute $441 million to government coffers, while sales into the domestic market should generate $778 million in government income. The Fiscal Commission will submit its findings on the oil sector assumptions in the 2004 budget to the full congress in mid-November. By Mercedes Alvaro, Dow Jones Newswires; 5939-9728-653;

09-18-03  victorn: carib, i don't think you can really blame frankenstein. He just represents popular will, which is: "we have massive unemployment and we have been very hungry too long. We want the govt to create (public) jobs". There is (or used to be) a tv show in argy in which the prize was getting a job (I forgot the name of the show). The winners were really excited because they would be able to work, and thus eat 3 hot meals per day. It's the kind of thing that breaks your heart.

09-18-03  victorn: carib, you are right. Life is easier that way. Having Mr. Market as your #1 friend. And you are a very practical person. But under some specific buying circumstances, i prefer not having a Mr. Market.

09-18-03  carib: Just heard rumor CESP 05 was trading higher, today...;-))

09-18-03  carib: Will Frankestein do something right, after all? <El líder de Recrear, Ricardo López Murphy, afirmó hoy que, según el Presupuesto Nacional para 2004, el Gobierno realizará el año próximo un "ajuste fiscal", aunque, según dijo, la opinión pública no lo percibe de esa manera.

Al analizar el proyecto de Presupuesto, López Murphy indicó: "el año que viene va a haber un esfuerzo significativo del Gobierno por alcanzar un importante superávit primario, que nunca hemos tenido en nuestra historia".

El ex ministro de Economía señaló que un "esfuerzo fiscal significativo forma parte de que lo que hay que hacer" y resaltó la decisión del Gobierno en tal sentido. >


09-18-03  carib: Rolf Excellent reading. This guy Griesa does not appear to be a fool.

09-18-03  carib: Victorn: to wind up the tedious <bookin> discussion, let me summarize: Why does one book? in my opinion for two reasons: to know at any point in time the value of your portfolio and your profit/loss situation. So I book at market, record in the next column the purchase price, and in the third column I do a minus b =C, which is the profit-loss situation. I just think life is easier that way.

09-18-03  rolfkoch: UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK

x

FILEJOPY
'c^DTSTRICf

EM LTD.,

Plaintiff,

03 Civ. 2507 (TPG)

against -THE REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA, Defendant,

X

OPINION

89044

Plaintiff EM Ltd. ("EML") is the owner of bonds issued by the Republic of Argentina. The Republic has defaulted on the bonds. EML is suing to recover amounts due to it by virtue of the default. It has moved for summary judgment, claiming that the Republic's obligation is unconditional and that there are no defenses. The Republic opposes the motion, asserting various defenses. In addition, the Republic requests that this action be stayed because the Republic is engaged in efforts to achieve a debt restructuring. The motion of EML for summary judgment on its bond obligations is granted. The motion of the Republic for a stay of the proceedings is denied, except that the court stays execution of EML's judgment temporarily, as will be described.

-2-Facts
The Bond Issue
This case involves a series of Argentine pesos (AR$) bonds, issued by the Republic of Argentina, called the "10 % New AR$ Global Bond1' due September 19, 2008. The Series is numbered ISIN #XS0130278467. The Series was issued on June 19, 2001 and is due for principal payment on September 19, 2008. Interest payments on the bonds are paid bi-annually on March 19 and September 19 of each year. EML owns bonds with a value of AR$ 595,396,345. The Series was issued by the Republic of Argentina through its fiscal agent, Deutsche Bank AG, London. EML's claim, and defendants do not deny, that the Series is governed by the terms of (i) an October 19, 1994 Fiscal Agency Agreement ("FAA") between the Republic of Argentina and Bankers Trust Company (to which Deutsche Bank AG is the successor), (ii) an amendment to the FAA dated April 21, 1998, and (iii) two certificates setting forth the terms and conditions of the Series. The FAA provides that failure to make any payment of principal or interest for 30 days after the applicable payment date constitutes an event of default. A declaration of a moratorium on the payment of principal or interest on its public external indebtedness is an event of default as well. Upon an

-3-event of default, a holder of not less than 25 % of the aggregate principal in the Series is entitled to declare the entire Series in default. Such bondholder may give notice declaring the principal amount immediately due and payable. Section 22 of the FAA states that the Republic of Argentina waives sovereign immunity and consents to jurisdiction in any state or federal court in the borough of Manhattan in the City of New York. The certificates state that the bonds in the Series are "direct, unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Republic." The documents governing the Series contain terms regarding event of default, consent to suit, and jurisdictional waiver that are essentially identical to those pertaining to the bonds about which this court entered summary judgement in favor of the plaintiffs on May 14, 2003. Light water Corporation Ltd, v. The Republic of Argentina. Nos. 02 Civ. 3804(TPG), 02 Civ. 3808(TPG), 02 Civ. 5832(TPG), 2003 WL 1878420. They also contain essentially identical language about the bonds being "direct, unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations." Default and Litigation
As discussed more extensively in the court's Lightwater opinion, 2003 WL 1878420 at *2, the Republic of Argentina is experiencing the worst

-4-economic crisis in its history. The country's gross domestic product has contracted severely each year since 1999, and tax collections have dropped sharply. During 2001 many businesses and individuals were making substantial withdrawals of capital from the banking system, with at least $20 billion being withdrawn. As a result, on December 1, 2001 the Republic imposed restrictions on depositors' access to bank accounts, freezing $60 billion in pesos and dollars and limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per month. On December 24, 2001, the Republic declared a moratorium on payments of principal and interest on the external debt of the Republic. This moratorium is still in effect. The Republic failed to make the March 19, 2001 interest payments on the bonds held by EML. On April 11, 2002, UBS Warburg, acting on behalf of EML, provided Deutsche Bank with notice of default and declared acceleration of principal. EML filed this lawsuit on April 10, 2003, EML claims that it is owed about $ 700 million in principal and interest. Moreover, EML seeks payment in U.S. dollars, at the rate of one U.S. dollar to one Argentine peso, claiming that such election is provided for under the terms and conditions of

-5-the bonds.
Discussion In the Lightwater, Old Castle, and Macrotecnic. cases this court has already granted summary judgment to the plaintiff bondholders seeking to collect on Argentine bonds which went into default as a result of the December 24, 2001 moratorium. This court found that: The obligations of the Republic on the bonds involved in these lawsuits are unconditional. Sovereign immunity has been waived. The Republic defaulted on the bonds when it ceased to pay the interest. This would seem to mean that the Republic now owes the three plaintiffs principal and accrued interest. 2003 WL 1878420 at *4.
The court finds nothing in the record to distinguish this case as to EML's unconditional legal right to collect on the bonds. EML provided affidavits and statements of account to show that it is the beneficial owner of the bonds. Argentina has defaulted on the bonds by declaring a moratorium and failing to make interest payments. As the holder of not less than 25 % in aggregate principal amount of the securities of the Series, EML was entitled, by notice, to declare the principal amount owed to it due and payable immediately

-6-under the terms and conditions of the certificates and the FAA. EML has so notified Argentina's fiscal agent. The Republic has not provided evidence sufficient to raise doubt as to the validity of EML's claim. U.S. Dollar Election
The Republic claims that the acceleration provision in the certificate excludes the bondholder's election of payment of accelerated principal in U.S. dollars at the rate of one U.S. dollar for one Argentine peso. The Republic relies on the certificates, which provide: If an Event of Default (as defined in the Fiscal Agency Agreement) occurs and is continuing then the holders of not less than 25 % in aggregate principal amount of the Securities of this Series, by notice in writing to the Republic at the specified office of the Fiscal Agent, shall declare the principal amount (that is, the par value) of all the Securities of this Series to be due and payable as set forth in the Fiscal Agency Agreement. The Republic argues that, because the par or face value of the Series is stated in Argentine peso, that is AR$, the acceleration provision excludes payment in U.S. dollars. The court finds the Republic's argument to be without merit. The

-7-certificates provide for an election as defined by the following language: with respect to any payment, the Holder of this Security elects to receive such payment in U.S. dollars by giving notice to the Fiscal Agent in writing not later than the close of business on the fifth business day prior to the applicable Interest Payment Date, the Maturity Date or other date of payment, as the case may be . . . [emphasis added]. The date of payment of accelerated principal plus interest constitutes such "other date of payment," and notice of dollar election was given by EML in its notice of acceleration. Moreover, the certificates explicitly provide that such payment can be in U.S. dollars at the rate of one U.S. dollar for one Argentine peso: The holder may elect to receive payments of principal and interest in U.S. dollars, in which case payment be made in U.S. dollars at the ratio of one U.S. dollar to one Argentine peso regardless of changes in foreign exchange rates. Language in the acceleration provision that refers to "par value1' therefore does jjr not, in the opinion of the court, limit the accelerated payment to its par value 1')-', -'•
pr in Argentine pesos. EML is thus entitled to the par value of its bonds at an

-8-exchange rate of one U.S. dollar to one Argentine peso. The above reasoning applies not only to the accelerated principal but to the defaulted interest payment due March 19, 2002. N.Y. Judiciary Law S 489
The Republic contends that EML violated Section 489 of the New York Judiciary Law, which prohibits buying a bond "with the intent and for the purpose of bringing an action or proceeding thereon." The Republic argues that there are factual issues in this regard which require discovery and possible trial, and cannot be dealt with by summary judgment. Relying on the Second Circuit's decision in Elliott Assoc. v. Banco de la Nacion. 194 F.3d 363 (2d Cir. 1999), the court has already addressed this issue in Lightwater. 2003 WL 1878420 at *4-5, and concluded as follows. Where a bond is purchased with the intent to collect on that bond, the statute is not violated even though there is also an intention to collect by a lawsuit if necessary. The circumstances of the bonds purchase by EML demonstrate conclusively that EML bought its bonds with the intention of collecting on them, even though they clearly had in mind that a lawsuit might be necessary.

-9-There was, therefore, no violation of § 489. The court does not believe that discovery and trial could develop any set of facts which would contradict these conclusions. The Application for a Stay
The Republic asks the court to stay the proceedings under the doctrine of comity. The court, however, has addressed the basic issues regarding a stay in Lightwater. 2003 WL 1878420 at *5-6, and in that decision made an analysis of the controlling Second Circuit case, Pravin Banker Assoc. v. Banco Popular del Peru. 109 F.3d 850 (2d Cir. 1997). As a result of that analysis the court declined, in Lightwater and the accompanying cases, to stay the motions for summary judgment, and granted the motions. The court, however, stayed execution of judgment for one month. In those cases two further limited stays were granted, the last of which expires midnight September 16, 2003. Despite the argument of the Republic to the contrary, the court rules that the EML case should be dealt with no differently from the other cases, at least as to the granting of summary judgment. Therefore application to stay the summary judgment motion is denied.

-10-
Conclusion
EML's motion for summary judgment is granted. Judgment will be entered for the par value of the bonds payable in U.S. dollars, plus accrued interest, at the rate of one U.S. dollar for one Argentine peso. The motion of the Republic for a stay of proceedings is denied, except that execution on EML's judgment is stayed until midnight September 16, 2003. A hearing will be held on September 15, 2003, regarding whether additional stays should be granted in this and other cases. SO ORDERED.
Dated: New York, New York
September 12, 2003



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