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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, September 19, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Interview: Aidan Hartley, Africa Journalist 09-19-03 (Yahoo) On the first page of his new book, The Zanzibar Chest, Aidan Hartley asks: "What is a man's legacy?"

IMF cautiously upbeat 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow by just over 4 percent next year, leaving its previous optimistic forecast unchanged.

Turn Off Foreign Aid? 09-19-03 (Yahoo) Why do we give foreign aid? We give aid for humanitarian reasons: that is, we wish to relieve human suffering because of famines or natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, etc.; and we give aid for economic development.

IMF Report Criticizes German and EU Economies 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The latest International Monetary Fund forecasts suggest that a global economic recovery in the next two years remains possible but ailing economies such as Germany’s may continue to contribute to its brittle nature.

The death and life of the New York department store. 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The great department stores of New York lie on the avenues now like luxury liners becalmed in a lagoon, big ships in shallow water.

IMF Says Global Economy Poised for Growth 09-18-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The global economy appears poised for growth, but the advance will be uneven and the recent collapse of trade talks in Mexico could foretell a worrisome slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) said Thursday.

Women Called Mideasts Untapped Resource 09-18-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 16 — The World Bank said today that women remain a "huge, untapped" economic resource in the Middle East and North Africa, where more women workers are needed to transform economies that must depend increasingly on private-sector exports to compete worldwide.

LATIN AMERICA

Argentines confronting nations violent past 09-19-03 (USA Today) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina -- Your parents are on a trip and they'll come back when you turn 15, Veronica Castelli was told as a very young girl.

Brazilian agrarian reform represents hope, not danger 09-19-03 (Yahoo) Across Brazil's vast landscape, poor people, in groups of hundreds, are moving onto land that is claimed by others. The poor are demanding that land be distributed to them as part of an ongoing national agrarian program.

Songs of Chile ring out again 09-18-03 (Yahoo) It has been 30 years since democracy was shoved aside in a country oppressed by an imperialist superpower. Books were censored, and there were preparations for a law that would have made criticising the great power a crime.

Brazil Pushes for South American Trade Pact 09-18-03 (NY Times) OGOTÁ, Colombia, Sept. 16 - Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, is pushing hard to form a continentwide trade pact by the end of the year that would give South American nations greater leverage as the United States pursues its own trade agreement for the hemisphere.

ASIA

Jitters in the Philippines 09-18-03 (NY Times) epeated coup rumors and allegations of corruption in high places are destabilizing the Philippine government at a time when it needs more than ever to focus on repairing the battered economy and fighting poverty.

OIL PRICES

Chevron set to exit Bangladesh 09-19-03 (BBC) US oil giant ChevronTexaco has announced it is winding up business in Bangladesh and handing over its interest to a Canadian oil company.

Imperial Oil says politics wont block pipeline 09-19-03 (Yahoo) TORONTO, OTTAWA AND VANCOUVER -- Imperial Oil Ltd. says the political scrap between the federal and Northwest Territories governments is no barrier to its planned construction of a $5-billion pipeline down the Mackenzie Valley,

Eritrea lifts fuel restrictions 09-19-03 (BBC) The government in Eritrea has lifted restrictions on the amount of fuel people are allowed to buy.

Fire erupts at Iraqi oil pipeline 09-18-03 (Yahoo) BAGHDAD (AFP) - A fire has erupted at an oil pipeline 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Baghdad, with the commander of US ground forces saying it was not known whether it resulted from sabotage.

Oil prices dip sharply after rise in US energy stocks 09-18-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (AFP) - Oil prices fell sharply, hitting near-four month lows after weekly figures showed a bigger than expected rise in US stocks of crude oil and gasoline. (no summary)

Newest messages appear on top.

09-19-03 Advice55: Savo, I know you do not like charts, but you might like history...

Soo have a look at what was the market moovement in the first 4 years of FHC... I remember sellers just got crazy and just when they started to think it would never go down, it started to trade side lines for months and than tick by tick down the drain....

But it lasted 4 years, not one, 4 f---ing years Savo....

And we have a plus now, market is coming of from lower levels cause of all crisis we saw since 1998....

Given the wourld economy scenario, Brazil still looks very cheap, specially stocks, cause we are not even at 6.000 dolares in stocks...

And we have some stocks that are realy late, pressured by all sorts of bad news doring 4 years...

And some of this stocks did not even get close to there highs, wile others like RIO and PETRO are at historical highs...

And news, well news will just get better ahead I am affraid...

This is Lula´s first year, and you know very well that I am not one of hte guys that sold C´s at 50 or lower, I was buying as well, cause I knew Lula was no comunist like a lot of foreigners thought.... Soo for me it realy no big surprise that Lula has this speach, no surprise at all, but still very good for the market in the end of each day...

Brazil = Clip and sleep well!

09-19-03 Advice55: Savo, first of all, good morning...

Second, I do not agree with you, september last year we were in the edge of an election, very insertant one, the dolar was at 4 reais, interest rates were at 40% nominal terms and inflation was running at 20% p.a..... In this situation, Brazil was basically unpayable, if it was there to last. We betted it would not last, and we were right it did not last.

Now, election is gone, is past, Lula and his team are doing a good job untill this point and, believe me, things can and will get even better ahead. And like I told you, this movement has not been made by locals this time, it has been made by foreigners, cause there is no safe haven for money any longer and news are getting better and better in carnival land. Brazil, today, is not only manageble, it is about to give a very large step in order to put public debt in such and ordered way, that you guys might not see Brazil coming to the market for new money in the next 6 to 8 months....

A lot of players are already seeing that and this is way, I think, you do not have great buying deeps oportunities in Brazil....

I think a lot of always short stocks local investors will be forced to cover up this time around, and on bonds, I think they will pay there copoms in day and still trade higher for some time, untill we see 500 over, or at least 550 over for the EMBI Brazil...

The amount of good news produced are just going to increase ahead, soo I think it is still not time to sell Brazil...

What makes me even more confortable on holding is exactly this kind of statment from you and cheetah, that you realy think nothing has changed....

I think a lot has changed and a lot still will...

Have a nice trading day!

09-19-03 PaxWax: Am I the only one who is really concerned about what is happening in Vene, from the debt-holders' point of view. It doesn't seem so clear-cut as many here seem to think. Sorry to sound like a <mandril>.

09-19-03 PaxWax: Leo, your optimism has been spot-on so far.

09-19-03 PaxWax: Thomas Friedman: anyone who knows France knows that there is nothing new under the sun... the sinking "Sun King" (Chirac) is just following the old Gaullist line, the same one we've been hearing since before most of us were born. I blame Bush much more than de Villepin for the present imbroglio. All Friedman is doing is stirring up the plumbers, carpenters, dentists and electricians with his hysteria.

09-19-03 leo: Pax if the deal goes trough and it seems likely,in a few days you could add a 50% on yesterday's price of 7,so why should you sell?Wait at least until a price of 10....

09-19-03 PaxWax: I am divided as to whether to hold on to the GBLX paper, and wait for the shares to be issued, or sell out and invest in some Guano and perhaps some CESP '11. What are other holders thinking?

09-19-03 PaxWax: I think Jimmy Rogers (whom I consider to be a brilliant guy in most respects) went WELL over the top, in that posted article. I have lost some respect for him, and didn't like his approach. On the other hand, my support for the "English Madame" is total, since anyone who knows Paris well is aware that there are THOUSANDS of ladies out working the streets at any given moment, and probably many hundreds of "maisons de tolérance." The "madame" in question" is simply following an old French tradition, and the prosecutor's office is guilty of the most extreme hypocrisy. (N.B. My attitute implies neither support nor condemnation for the profession of prostitution, if that is involved here.)

09-19-03 savonarola: Advice....<cheetah still thinks nothing has changed in Brazil from september last year to today>

Not only Cheetah...

You remeber that song...I don't know from who:

<...proque la vida es un carnaval... y es tan bueno seguir bailando...>

That is exactly what you guys are doing. Every year once a year, you go nuts and celebrates nobody knows what during 4 or 5 days. It is tradition. Politically speaking Brazil is having a sort of Carnaval. They hated Lula last year, and they are loving him now. They sold 40s at 45 last year, they buy them at 95 this. Brazil is every year exactly the same before and after the Carnaval. It is different though <during> the carnaval... but you know.. Carnavales... just do not last.

09-19-03 Advice55: TCP has a large gap it might try to close that goes from 4.75 to 6.40...

The imediate resistences are at 5.50 and than only 7.50, but it could stop whaen it closes the gap at 6.40...

I believe fundamental news on this one plus the fact that the market is very short on the paper can justify it closing this gap very fast....

Looks like PT and espanhois are about to say they will buy back some TCP stocks as they are donig back home, but TCP is more cheap in historical terms than PT shares in europe... Plus, the fact that the market still thinks PT does not give a dam for share holders and the rumor in the recent past was of a new issue of stocks... If instead of a new issue they start to talk some business to share holders, the paper can easly get running very fast cause market does not expect that at all and is short like hell on the stock...

Even after recent run, TCP looks very cheap to me...

Good Luck!

09-19-03 lebtrader: UAL unsecured bonds are selling under 10 while the stock is selling for over one dollar. This is interesting since there is little doubt that the stock will be totally wiped out. No doubt UAL is in a mess and its complicated asset structure is a challenge to unravel, but the relatively high shareprice for a chapter 11 company could signify that the unsecured debt is an attractive proposition.

09-19-03 Advice55: <with you all the way on this one ADVICE>

Thanks Danni!

Not in mood to sell yet, cheetah still thinks nothing has changed in Brazil from september last year to today...

Think better to hold untill he descovers what has changed, cause we might have a lot of people thinking that kind of bull....shit...

Regards!

09-19-03 Advice55: If any one cares, I swaped some TCP preferencial shares for some ordinary shares today...

Seems like ON´s are late....

And the company detains 90% of ON stocks, soo probably ordinary shares will have a larger moovement in the next trade up...

Also, reduced Copel in the beggening of the day to increase TNE...

I think the electric sector might just wait a little for the 21 days average to get closer to current prices before it has a nice leg up again...

Regards

09-19-03 Cciano: Standard & Poor´s bajó el panorama para la deuda ecuatoriana a "estable" desde "positiva" por no mejorar su posición fiscal. Los bajos ingresos petroleros también son una razón.

S&P ratificó su calificación de "CCC+" para la deuda soberana a largo plazo y de "C" para sus obligaciones a corto plazo.

http://www.elcomercio.com/noticias....

09-19-03 moneypenny: <Steel Tariffs Appear to Have Backfired on Bush>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...

Heh! Heh! Payback's a beach, ain't it, Gee-Dubya? Tolja!

09-19-03 danni: offlaod gblxq shcotok +50% . HLSH @ 3.31 will offlaod @ 16/18$ in 18/24month bot @ 0.11c. will laod more wcoeq @ 0.04c. & AAWH @ 0.4 0.3.

09-19-03 Pelegrino-spo: Hey gringos! She is not trading face value for months! stop thinkin of face value and get the accrued! Is there anything better (bondly speaking) to do with your money but buying Brazil's bonds?

Booom!

09-19-03 danni: carib: Danni: maybe selling some Brasil was wrong (it went higher today).....CARIB maybe ,in my case i hold bra/09/20/24/27/30/40.my largest hold is bra20 bot @ 54 .

09-18-03 danni: Advice55: brazil rally, that is just in the meedle of the way..... with you all the way on this one ADVICE

09-18-03 carib: Amigo: if you knew how the italian legal system actually works, you would acknowledge that it is easy to become "mentally disturbed" there.

09-18-03 carib: Danni: maybe selling some Brasil was wrong (it went higher today)...but after all a month ago I was able to load below 95 the Br br30 I sold yesterday above 105. I kept the 27 because I agree it is possible it goes higher. Brasil 2009 E and 2007 GBP still offer good and safe clipping, on the short duration side. It all depends how much (in %) one has of the stuff.

09-18-03 danni: carib: Danni: let me add that Brasil is still my largest holding..... CARIB samesame i didnt offlaod & not going to as i look @ usa10 usa30 still going lower.

09-18-03 danni: optimist;I sold also (like danni) third of my Brz 27 at 91.375 today .....OPTI I didnt bot 350k @ 50 & laoded more 150k @ 83 .

09-18-03 amigo latino: Famous quotes of Berlusconi

<The Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has startled his country's judges by reportedly describing them as mad.

He is quoted as saying to two British journalists: "To do that job you need to be mentally disturbed, you need psychic disturbances. "If they do that job it is because they are anthropologically different from the rest of the human race."

The Italian judges' association said on Thursday that it was unheard-of for a head of government to use such language.

One judge, Salvatore Scaduti of Palermo's Court of Appeals, said: "I am aghast at these off-the-wall statements."

Opposition politicians described Mr Berlusconi's comments as "delirious", while President Azeglio Ciampi said Italians should have full confidence in the judiciary, which worked to administer justice for all Italians. …>

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3...

09-18-03 Advice55: <farc has such support from GNOME that even with a crash in Brazil it should hold up...>

Keep on dreaming with the next Brazil crises cheetah.... We do not pay nothing to have dreams! You might loose some opportunities, but nothing realy bad.... only 40% or soo in some carbedge stocks...

In the mean time, please, do not stop!

What have you said yesterday and today?

Nothing has changed in Brazil fundamentals from september last year to this year!

Wonderfull, maginifico, suberb thought! ahahahahahaha

That comes from some one supposed to understand what he talks about! eheheheheh

Keep up the speach cheetah, that is the market talk we need to trade at 500 over next week!

09-18-03 SPAL: <09-18-03 amigo latino: DR Unprivatization News> interesting analysis ... sounds about right.

Do you see the Pellerano's digging out TDR? Who buys her?

09-18-03 amigo latino: Ms MacDonald saw a gap in the market in France for something classy,……………….

<The problem for Ms Macdonald is that in France, running an escort agency is illegal, though it carries a maximum sentence far shorter than the 10 years in prison maximum for pimping.

Ms MacDonald says that as a businesswoman, she saw a gap in the market in France for something classy,……………….

The court will deliver its verdict in a few week's time. The main question is whether the judge will be convinced that Ms MacDonald was either ignorant of her employees' alleged sexual activities, or whether they were part of the package sold to her wealthy clients in advance, therefore making the British "madam" guilty of pimping and living off immoral earnings. The prosecution has asked for a sentence of six years' imprisonment. ……….>

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/...

How about nominating Ms Mcdonald for a professorship at Horward Business School ?

09-18-03 moneypenny: Carib: <Will Frankestein do something right, after all?> No, it is just that Lopez Murphy will occassionally say something wrong. El Bulldog lacks inner toughness. I never thought he had it. He too much wants praise from the establishment - in his case, his buddies at the IMF and the Bush administration.

09-18-03 moneypenny: Cheetah: these are thugs you are seeing. Get out. Don't touch that stuff. Like holding gold plated dynamite, it looks pretty nice, but let's face it, anything can happen.

09-18-03 moneypenny: Thomas Friedman, that looney, wild-eyed radical, on the state of France:

<It's time we Americans came to terms with something: France is not just our annoying ally. It is not just our jealous rival. France is becoming our enemy.

If you add up how France behaved in the run-up to the Iraq war (making it impossible for the Security Council to put a real ultimatum to Saddam Hussein that might have avoided a war), and if you look at how France behaved during the war (when its foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, refused to answer the question of whether he wanted Saddam or America to win in Iraq), and if you watch how France is behaving today (demanding some kind of loopy symbolic transfer of Iraqi sovereignty to some kind of hastily thrown together Iraqi provisional government, with the rest of Iraq's transition to democracy to be overseen more by a divided U.N. than by America), then there is only one conclusion one can draw: France wants America to fail in Iraq.

France wants America to sink in a quagmire there in the crazy hope that a weakened U.S. will pave the way for France to assume its "rightful" place as America's equal, if not superior, in shaping world affairs.>

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/18/o...

09-18-03 carib: Drjbg: solving Dart's problem is easy, if Argy wants: they can buy back the bonds. That is not a payment, just a market transaction (better: off the market transaction). Five years waiting would be fine with me...unless it would also be fine for too many other holders....

09-18-03 Cheetah: i will be selling veni soon...

09-18-03 Cheetah: Chavez stoking anger in Veni...Pinky wants a social explosion...he "celebrates" the release from prison of the assassins caught on TV worldwide...

only in Pinky Veni or Castro's Cuba:

En un extenso discurso, en el que tocó varios puntos, el Presidente de la República, Hugo Chávez, envió un saludo a Nicolás Rivera Muentes, Rafael Cabrices, Henry Atencio y Richard Peńalver recientemente absueltos por un tribunal de los sucesos de Puente Llaguno el pasado 11 de abril de 2002.

"Con fervor revolucionario y con admiración", el presidente alabó la decisión de los tribunales de dejar libres a quienes con "coraje" enfrentaron con sus armas "a franco tiradores y a terroristas vestidos de policía".

"A ellos, el honor que merecen y el reconocimiento de nuestro pueblo, y nos alegramos muchísimo de que hayan vuelto a casa", insistió el presidente Chávez

sickening...

09-18-03 drjbg: re: ARG.

The 2-3 years of appeals plus 2 years already elapsed since ARG devault = 5 years. That's roughly the amount of time cited by the M.I.T. study (posted by Wally, I believe) as optimal for an ARG bond-buy back, with repayment of any remaining debeldes at the end of the five year period.

Also, it's interesting to think how DART would be paid, if they win. Any ARG repayment would be embarged by many other bond-holder organizations. Unless, perhaps, DART reaches some kind of secret settlement, with transfer of funds to an offshore entity using a non-US bank. It would not be surprising if ARG did just that, to avoid setting a legal precedent which would result in an avalanche of law suits. It would also be in DART's interst. FWIW.

09-18-03 wally: <cheetah> i agree with you fully on Veni, Guano and FARC. but i have no intention yet to part with my Bra40 holdings.

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