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Emerging Markets |
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Friday, September 19, '03
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 | Interview: Aidan Hartley, Africa Journalist 09-19-03 (Yahoo) On the first page of his new book, The Zanzibar Chest, Aidan Hartley asks: "What is a man's legacy?"
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| IMF cautiously upbeat 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow by just over 4 percent next year, leaving its previous optimistic forecast unchanged.
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| Turn Off Foreign Aid? 09-19-03 (Yahoo) Why do we give foreign aid? We give aid for humanitarian reasons: that is, we wish to relieve human suffering because of famines or natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, etc.; and we give aid for economic development.
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| IMF Report Criticizes German and EU Economies 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The latest International Monetary Fund forecasts suggest that a global economic recovery in the next two years remains possible but ailing economies such as Germany’s may continue to contribute to its brittle nature.
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| The death and life of the New York department store. 09-19-03 (Yahoo) The great department stores of New York lie on the avenues now like luxury liners becalmed in a lagoon, big ships in shallow water.
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| IMF Says Global Economy Poised for Growth 09-18-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The global economy appears poised for growth, but the advance will be uneven and the recent collapse of trade talks in Mexico could foretell a worrisome slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) said Thursday.
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| Women Called Mideasts Untapped Resource 09-18-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 16 — The World Bank said today that women remain a "huge, untapped" economic resource in the Middle East and North Africa, where more women workers are needed to transform economies that must depend increasingly on private-sector exports to compete worldwide.
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| Argentines confronting nations violent past 09-19-03 (USA Today) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina -- Your parents are on a trip and they'll come back when you turn 15, Veronica Castelli was told as a very young girl.
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| Brazilian agrarian reform represents hope, not danger 09-19-03 (Yahoo) Across Brazil's vast landscape, poor people, in groups of hundreds, are moving onto land that is claimed by others. The poor are demanding that land be distributed to them as part of an ongoing national agrarian program.
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| Songs of Chile ring out again 09-18-03 (Yahoo) It has been 30 years since democracy was shoved aside in a country oppressed by an imperialist superpower. Books were censored, and there were preparations for a law that would have made criticising the great power a crime.
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| Brazil Pushes for South American Trade Pact 09-18-03 (NY Times) OGOTÁ, Colombia, Sept. 16 - Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, is pushing hard to form a continentwide trade pact by the end of the year that would give South American nations greater leverage as the United States pursues its own trade agreement for the hemisphere.
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| Jitters in the Philippines 09-18-03 (NY Times) epeated coup rumors and allegations of corruption in high places are destabilizing the Philippine government at a time when it needs more than ever to focus on repairing the battered economy and fighting poverty.
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| Chevron set to exit Bangladesh 09-19-03 (BBC) US oil giant ChevronTexaco has announced it is winding up business in Bangladesh and handing over its interest to a Canadian oil company.
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| Imperial Oil says politics wont block pipeline 09-19-03 (Yahoo) TORONTO, OTTAWA AND VANCOUVER -- Imperial Oil Ltd. says the political scrap between the federal and Northwest Territories governments is no barrier to its planned construction of a $5-billion pipeline down the Mackenzie Valley,
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| Eritrea lifts fuel restrictions 09-19-03 (BBC) The government in Eritrea has lifted restrictions on the amount of fuel people are allowed to buy.
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| Fire erupts at Iraqi oil pipeline 09-18-03 (Yahoo) BAGHDAD (AFP) - A fire has erupted at an oil pipeline 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Baghdad, with the commander of US ground forces saying it was not known whether it resulted from sabotage.
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| Oil prices dip sharply after rise in US energy stocks 09-18-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (AFP) - Oil prices fell sharply, hitting near-four month lows after weekly figures showed a bigger than expected rise in US stocks of crude oil and gasoline. (no summary)
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Newest messages appear on top.
09-19-03
wally:
She-Bond <93.000 93.125>
09-19-03
victorn:
mp <these are thugs you are seeing. Get out>, you mean venezuela? these are thugs (just like the former ones that your govt supported) who are looking for int'l recognition. They have important reasons (3 letter word) for not desiring to be isolated like argy.
09-19-03
Advice55:
And <TEO> has a yellow light, another doji...Certanly can trade down a little to test the 21 days average once again, but as we can see it has a needle on the buy side already 21 with 50 needle and looks good!
I am starting to understand that you colores, a lot of times, know what the hell you talk about!
09-19-03
Advice55:
<ALVR> does not look bad as well...Might get a bid and up as well...
Engolfo de alta, on this one!
09-19-03
Glutt:
Spal, i do not know where did you get this VODOO but i believe you.
09-19-03
Advice55:
I explain why Spal...
<SBAC>
If you take a line from the bottom to up, getting all the deeps, you will see that the last dive to 2.50 went exactly to that line and straight back up. Now market traded sidelines for some time, and as it goes sidelines and the line I am talking about has a positive slope it finaly got to the line again, trading side lines....
IFR´s and MACDS aliviated and inside buy territory....
The 21 day mooving average that had a needle on the sell side with the 50 days average is starting to point up again, as the 50 days just points a little down... In other words, if it can pass the 4 supply level, you will probably see a needle on the buy side this time....
I think that thing <SBAC> might start to moove....
Regards!
09-19-03
Glutt:
vic <My natural tendency is to dislike the govt & politicians.> you mean all of them? danni, Turks are special case compared to Brazil. everyone knows Turks debt wise and fiscally are dead long ago... but for some reason US and IMF handle them differently from others. Brazil is fundamentally better but also a disaster... however it does not enjoy so much love and attention of US and IMF… as market monkeys like moral hazard as no brainer game this explains why Turkish debt coffin flies higher than Brazilian
09-19-03
Advice55:
Spal
<SBAC> looks like will be trading above 4 in the coming sections...
It starts to look more and more like it will brake for the upside....
09-19-03
Glutt:
wally, THANK YOU... now call Torgay.
09-19-03
danni:
leo: Turk 30 ask reaches 116!!! ....if turks can do this one mast wonder what can LULA & PINKI do
09-19-03
Glutt:
aha, here comes savo with his condominium paradise model.
09-19-03
savonarola:
victor...<What argy needs is a govt perceived as very nationalistic but on the political right>Would you suggest something like the ultra-spanish nationalist Mr Jose Maria Aznar??
The word <nationalism>, of any kind, produces in me an inmediate uncontrolable irritation. Moreover.. I hate <nation>.. I love <individual>, and I love <society>, meaning a group of individuals, who despite their different languages, religion, culture, etc... may agree to work together in certain common interests.
09-19-03
Fogg:
From a usually well informed journalist abot Arg offer:http://ar.clarin.com/diario/hoy/o-0...
09-19-03
Advice55:
Thanks wally!
Looks nice and hold!
Some food for morning thinking:
Congratulations! There is strength and vigor in this situation - like a ram who has knocked down a fence to free himself from captivity. This points to a time when a strong force comes into its own and achieves power.
When a leader finally comes into power, his or her personal strength usually has peaked. Great strength has been required in climbing to the mountaintop, but once at the summit, the support of others is needed to maintain position. A shift in attitude becomes necessary. Raw strength must be tempered by wisdom; to maintain power, the strong leader must learn to give it away, to share it with others. Only then will his position be secure, for he will not only be the possessor of power, but the source of it as well.
If you find yourself in a powerful position, it is especially important to act responsibly and react with care. Power must not be allowed to degenerate into raw force which rides roughshod over everything in its path. A strong sense of responsibility to the collective good is the key to the successful exercise of power. By following what we intuitively know to be for the greater good, we avoid reckless abuses of power which in the end undermine the source of our strength. Arrogance contains the seeds of its own undoing.
09-19-03
wally:
<glut> Turkey 30 116.000 116.625
09-19-03
wally:
<Advice55: any one could give me Cbond, BR09 and br06> 92.625 / 92.875 - 121.750 / 123.000 - 108.750 / 110.000
09-19-03
Advice55:
any one could give me Cbond, BR09 and br06 bid and ask this morning?Thanks in advance!
09-19-03
victorn:
carib, <the task of providing jobs does not belong to the government, but mosty to the priovate economy> you don't have to convince me. My natural tendency is to dislike the govt & politicians. You would need to convince an argy citizen who is hungry that the solution to his hunger problems is to increase the private sector and to reduce the size of the govt. A very difficult task. Remember that for these hungry people Privatization (which they associate with private enterprise in general, which is obviously wrong) = Misery. Privatization, private enterprise and anything associated with "private capital" is also considered as a yankee & non-nationalistic (argy nationalism i mean) way to control and "buy" argentina. In argy nationalism is ONLY on the political left (the perón era, now the kirchner era, are viewed as nationalistic govts). In argy there is no such thing as nationalism on the right because the right is associated with selling the country to foreign powers at the "expense" of the people. What argy needs is a govt perceived as very nationalistic but on the political right. A nationalistic govt is required because to get out of this mess they need to make big sacrifices and reforms (that encourage the development of stable private-sector enterprises). But such reforms can only be evoked in the name of nationalism (don't ask what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country). But if a president initiates such pro private-sector reforms then he will be considered as a non-nationalist who has sold his soul to the yankee capitalists. JR Videla as an example (who was a right-wing nationalist, but argies do not understand this). See the problem?
09-19-03
Glutt:
<A European Commission committee will oversee a huge plan for financing the collective rebranding of the E-uropean E-conomy.It will cost a couple of euro, but nothing that can't be fixed by a small tax hike.
the Chinese are already running for cover.>
hm... excellent sense of acid humour IMHO
09-19-03
Advice55:
<I would have suggested MORE exclamation points and MORE double-spacing in order to sound even more tame and cool-headed, but it's anyway the best posting of the year.>Very funny ozy, you are very funny you know?
Realy, very very funny! ahahahaha
Ozy, how is your always hold cash trade is doing?
09-19-03
leo:
115.75\116.125.....keep cool...
09-19-03
Glutt:
leo, you want me get heart attack??? please stop posting TR30 prices !!!
09-19-03
Glutt:
Pax, as regards admiration my admiration for your or any of colores financial genius is much bigger than for all Soros puppies combined because you do not lie about what you do and your success is based on your brain and not on simple blunt inside like WS gangs seems have… it was not that bad when financial industry was more simple and transparent years ago but since financial sophistication evolved qualities of bankers decreased IMHO.
09-19-03
Glutt:
Pax, you right about Russia, IMHO… I have to swallow all my Russo pride and admit that Russia is a random walk and will remain such for long time.What I cannot agree is about genius of this Rogers, because to my scarce knowledge success on financial market rests with insider information for 90%, not possible to prove for all cases but I would guess I am not so far from reality. One explanation for recent conflicts of interests (guess inside versus integrity and honesty) at banks for which your beloved ML paid a record settlement last year.
if I would suggest I very well know Russia and can assure you what I told about Chubais and Soros was true. Soros was simply slapped over his face and pride by a band of privatization gangsters on dead meat called Svyazinvest… For your historical record, a former owner of Renaissance Capital Investment bank Boris Jordan in 1998 persuaded Soros to the deal to buy a 25% stake in government controlled holding Svyazinvest. He was promised the government will merge telecom assets to this holding and privatize another 25% in next three years. Mr Soros bought this fairy tale AS he always liked to work on inside… the result you know, Mr Soros finally had to reckon that he is not the only smart crook in this gang, and a cost of his reckoning was 1 bio $… so much for financial genius of Soros and likes. As regards admiring esteemed gurus… lets use another example of Mark Mobius who of recent made a comment of likely collapse of Yukos and Sibneft merger because of conflict at Yukos … this contributed to sell off not only on Yukos shares but on Sibneft bonds. Needless to say pragmatic people made money on what Mobius said because knew this was not to be true. I would also remind about how much guru Mobius lost in Russian … of course this is single case only
09-19-03
ozymiani:
<Advice55>:<I am not excited! Not at all!>: best of the year. I would have suggested MORE exclamation points and MORE double-spacing in order to sound even more tame and cool-headed, but it's anyway the best posting of the year.
09-19-03
ozymiani:
<it's a stroke of genius>: hu hu. As in "Einstein hit by brainstroke".All they need is rebranding Alstom: they will call it "Alstom.com". Wait for "Alitalia.net", "MunichRe-Global.com" and "e-ECB".
A European Commission committee will oversee a huge plan for financing the collective rebranding of the E-uropean E-conomy.
It will cost a couple of euro, but nothing that can't be fixed by a small tax hike.
the Chinese are already running for cover.
09-19-03
victorn:
New E-Mail Worm Targets Hole in Internet ExplorerSAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Anti-virus companies warned on Thursday of a new computer worm circulating through e-mail that purports to be security software from Microsoft Corp. but actually tries to disable security programs that are already running.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...
09-19-03
leo:
Turk 30 ask reaches 116!!!
09-19-03
PaxWax:
Inherent dangers in an "Asian NATO" ~ http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_...
09-19-03
PaxWax:
French and Germans plan to rely on hi-tech rather than traditional public works spending to help economic recovery in their countries.
http://www.iht.com/articles/110475....
Comment: I wonder why nobody ever thought of that before... it's a stroke of genius.
09-19-03
Glutt:
<That is exactly what you guys are doing. Every year once a year, you go nuts and celebrates nobody knows what during 4 or 5 days. It is tradition. Politically speaking Brazil is having a sort of Carnaval. They hated Lula last year, and they are loving him now. They sold 40s at 45 last year, they buy them at 95 this. Brazil is every year exactly the same before and after the Carnaval. It is different though <during> the carnaval... but you know.. Carnavales... just do not last.> brilliant, very right hit. a pity some like me lose on such carnival because too afraid of possible hangovers... but at today's prices i find few EM which i would like to hold (of course Vene and Ecu are on the list). as regards buying forget it for the moment.
09-19-03
PaxWax:
According to my observations, Jimmy Rogers has been right about many things over the years, and we could excuse him for being wrong about Russia, were it not for the wrongheaded arrogance he showed in that confrontation with the student. My understanding is that Russia, like Brazil (as Savo declares) is three-quarters a disaster area, but even so it's hard to deny a considerable increase in oil production, to name just one, or that a majority of people are now living better than two or three years ago, thanks to an improved economy. It's not just me saying this, but institutions such as the WSJ, IHT, and FT.
09-19-03
Glutt:
carib <Drjbg: solving Dart's problem is easy, if Argy wants: they can buy back the bonds. That is not a payment, just a market transaction (better: off the market transaction). Five years waiting would be fine with me...unless it would also be fine for too many other holders.... > EXACTLY... very likely possibility given that Dart is very likely will target separate talks to recover maximum best deal and AHEAD of others... of course Dart wants to have something before others will understand there is little left. then 5 years and buy backs for peanuts... then may be waiting remaining creditors will be paid more but what to do about another 5 year of missing interest on arrears and unpaid principal? it is difficult indeed. i doubt Dart wants to wait next 5 years in ARG case
09-19-03
Advice55:
And savo do not understand me wrong, I am not critisising you or any colore cause you took some profits in Brazil about one point in average lower than we are now...I will just sit here and watch very carefully what you will do with all that cash! For how long will you be able to stay in cash...
There is no exitment in cash as well... speacialy this days...
Regards!
09-19-03
Advice55:
<But it is the exitement with which disagree.>I am not excited Savo! Not at all!
My wife is sleeping and I already gone through some <exitement> last night! hehehe
Just normal clip in bonds and some nice starting rally on stocks!
Just fun!
09-19-03
savonarola:
advice... let me first say that I share most of your postings. And my view of Brazil as a credit is not much different from yours. All I have done is reduced my exposure over the last few months in search or greener pastures. Where we do disagree is in <I think a lot has changed and a lot still will>
I don't think anything has changed fundamentally. Brazil is still, in my opinion the same mess up economy that it has been since I am around. Ful of rigidities, corruption ,public spending, gnocchis, controls, inefficiencies, priviledges, etc... and will remain like such for the forseeable future.
However, with the election away, a reasonble president and low iterest rates, I don't find current spread unsustainable, and even lower too. But it is the exitement with which disagree. For me Brazil has never ever been a hold. Too many recurrent crisis.
09-19-03
Advice55:
Savo, I saw a lot of players being fired during the second year of FHC, cause they were sitting in cash since the first one, trying to buy a deep, trying to guess when the next crisis was coming and soo on...And that days my friend, US rates were not at 1% p.a....
Soo today, it is worst....
09-19-03
Glutt:
<09-18-03 Neznaika: <Jim Rogers> - just one of his phrase: "if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil still so high?" - shows he is a total moron.> financial market history is a history of great dignity and intellectual prostitution in one. As same history gives us evidence, a brain amputee can climb the top while a Nobel winner can go down the slope. we all know the case of Long Term Capital while Roger should be undisputed winner for a brain amputee. On big achievements of Soros and likes I personally believe 99% of their success is INSIDER information. Funnily in Russia Soros got burnt exactly because of his addiction for high profile connections and inside… so Russki mobs under the lead of Mr Chubais & Co… flashed Soros with all his billions… an insult Soros will never forget for the rest of his life. Same Chubais enjoys today spending some of that 1 bio Soros left for him in Russia … hahaha
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