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Emerging Markets |
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Monday, September 22, '03
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 | Argentina gets huge IMF loan 09-22-03 (BBC) The International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide $12.5bn over the next three years to help Argentina out of its economic crisis.
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| IMF Rebuke Should Accelerate Reform Drive 09-22-03 (Yahoo) The IMF was optimistic about a global economic upturn in its report published Thursday, but remained downbeat about recovery prospects for the euro zone economy and singled out Germany for a zero growth forecast.
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| Globalization Hits Germanys Oktoberfest 09-22-03 (Yahoo) MUNICH, Germany - The polka bands struck up and beer started flowing at this year's Oktoberfest this weekend, even as the sale of a venerable Bavarian brewer to foreign owners injected tough global realities into the party.
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| More flexibility in exchange rates "desirable": G7 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (AFP) - The Group of Seven (G7) most industrialised nations said that more flexibility in international exchange rates was "desirable."
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| G7 Presses Asia to Let Its Currencies Rise 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - The Group of Seven industrial nations took aim on Saturday at Asian governments that keep a tight grip on their currencies by calling for more exchange rate flexibility to help iron out global economic imbalances.
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| Stock Rally Downshifts as the Economy Accelerates 09-22-03 (Yahoo) Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- While the economic news has looked stronger and stronger lately, the stock market has grown harder to please.
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| Argentina outlines repayment plan 09-22-03 (BBC) Argentina's government has started talks in Dubai on rescheduling at least $90bn (£55bn) of debt owed to banks and other private sector lenders.
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| Argentina rejects French Astiz bid 09-22-03 (BBC) An Argentine court has refused a request from Paris for the extradition of a former naval officer whom France has convicted of killing two nuns.
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| Brazil Wont Send Troops to Help in Iraq 09-22-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA, Brazil - Brazil has rejected a U.S. request to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq (news - web sites) because of the "difficult" security situation there, Defense Minister Jose Viegas said.
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| Will OPEC make room at the table for Iraq? 09-22-03 (Yahoo) David DeRosa , president of DeRosa Research & Trading, is an adjunct finance professor at the Yale School of Management and the author of "In Defense of Free Capital Markets." The opinions expressed are his own.
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| Iraq to Allow Full Foreign Ownership Outside Oil 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - U.S.-controlled Iraq (news - web sites) Sunday unveiled sweeping reforms allowing foreign investors into all sectors except oil, ending 30 years of state economic control.
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| Oil Hits New 4-Month Lows as Isabel Wanes 09-22-03 (Yahoo) LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices sank to fresh four-month lows on Friday as Hurricane Isabel weakened without causing much damage to U.S. energy infrastructure.
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Newest messages appear on top.
09-23-03
carib:
El secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, John Snow, aseguró hoy que su país "no puede darle consejos" a la Argentina, en el marco de la renegociación
de la deuda en default.
"Los Estados Unidos no pueden darles consejos" a los argentinos, sostuvo el funcionario norteamericano en declaraciones que formuló en Dubai. Al ser consultado por los periodistas que se encuentran en la capital de los Emiratos Arabes, Snow evitó hacer comentarios sobre la oferta argentina, pues dijo desconocer los detalles de esa propuesta, que se basa en una quita del 75 por ciento sobre el capital adeudado.
09-23-03
Glutt:
Advice55: <Glutt, you do not know sheeeteee about Brazil, did not buy at 50 and did not buy at 60 and did not buy at 70 and lost the improovment with the same old speach....> & what? I sold this quite at a top last April so had no regrets (ask Escipion) ... as regards <sheeeteee> it seems to be the substance present in your head instead of normal grey cells, if you please talk like this Mr. Advice.
09-23-03
carib:
Spallito in california must be a late sleeper. With no input, just in case, I loaded some of his latest shweine (ITWO) on the lows, given today's sharp drop.
09-23-03
Glutt:
ok wally, i agree, now lets discuss something else...what about Patagonia penguins? (do not mind me this joke)
09-23-03
carib:
Idiots: maybe. Bandits: for sure.
Lavagna, translated in English, said: Argentina does not intend to honor, or even try to honor, any of her legal obbligations.
Point taken, thanks.
Then continued: we will offer creditors no money, but only new bonds that will start paying some money in the future, if it will be our pleasure to pay it.
The reasoning is very clear. What is less clear is the US interest in supporting this particular set of bandits.
09-23-03
Glutt:
<UNreal proposal> is indeed what ARG made, so creditors had to reject this. Lets see how this changes on roadshows… so good for big banks who once bamboozled their clients to buy ARG and collected fees, next did swaps for ARG and put again fees, now will advise ARG on how to screw bondholders and again will put fees… this is what JP Morons and alikes forgot to explain about themselves.
09-23-03
wally:
<So do you assume ARG government all are plain idiots and morons?> i don't <glut>. but this has nothing to do with the question whether the proposal was <real> or <unreal>. i still insist that <amateur> is right when he called it that way.
09-23-03
wally:
<Glutt: Wally, i am tired of ridiculous talk> me too! especially discussing the <road show> of a (presently) UNreal proposal :~)))
09-23-03
Glutt:
wally, lets put it this way. INDEED this WAS ARG proposal … this was official OFFER because this was made officially by their ministers and laid at the meeting stuffed with highly ranked people … if after all of this i assume ARG was just joking THEN … hm… i do not know what kind of stupidity ARG poses. So do you assume ARG government all are plain idiots and morons?
09-23-03
Glutt:
Wally, i am tired of ridiculous talk. Look, Argentina approached everyone with indeed the offer of debt shave off… the offer indeed does not mean talks because for talks you need at least one willing to talk with you… yesterday’s reactions on both sides i would see as <f..ck you> & <F---ck you> exchange. Now when ARG opened the Pandora box it will go on making roadshows, bring those who want to the negotiation table and workout details. IMHO debt talks are not from a car shop story or you confuse a shop selling Fiats with a shop selling high end Ferraris IMHO… ARG talks are high end robbery, wally monsieur.
09-23-03
carib:
Amateur: correct on UST and Lula. But given the long end of Bras does not yield much more than the short (taking my own 09E and 07GBP as short) the only reason for staying on the long end is assuming the reduction in the spread will be larger that the possible increase of UST yields...or expect a reduction in both UST yield and spreads. Being both items close to historical lows, one must admit there is some risk of "volatitily" there...even before considering more pessimistic Savo-opinions...
09-23-03
amigo latino:
Carib and Glut: Due to time pressure, I will leave the corruption topic for now—I will get back to it in the evening or in the weekend.
09-23-03
wally:
<i saw a posting which clearly confirms what i suggested from yesterday> so you agree that it was NOT a REAL PROPOSAL <glut>?
09-23-03
Glutt:
Advice <Short sellers of today will just be fuc> a pearl of wisdom. plain and simple and nothing to add… simply sellers <will just be fuc> says our Brazilian Socrates and he means business.
09-23-03
wally:
<What is even more funny in this regard is that Argentina prepares to begin roadshows of this <not been a real proposal> starting from mid October…>buy reading glasses <glut>. you missed the topic completely. <amateur> has correctly stated that without details of proposed new bonds it was NOT a <real proposal> which was presented in Dubai. what you are trying to tell us is equivalent to the story of a car salesman who is telling a customer i have a car for you, it costs XYZ dollars, but what model, what year built, how many horsepowers, whether automatic transmission or aircondition it will tell you at the <road show>.
09-23-03
Advice55:
Glutt, you do not know sheeeteee about Brazil, did not buy at 50 and did not buy at 60 and did not buy at 70 and lost the improovment with the same old speach....Keep out of Brazil glutt, the day you finaly decides to get in, I will be out...
09-23-03
Glutt:
Btw, wally, German speaking b-wiebel.com where you hang from time to time, i saw a posting which clearly confirms what i suggested from yesterday. Argentina will backtrack shortly on its claim of 75% face value reduction and would argue 75% NPV reduction… then psychology 101 tells us some will warm up… then number of hesitating will still be large but Argentina will find another small excuse to make them less… and so on so on so on… long Road to Perdition.
09-23-03
amigo latino:
Does anybody have Alstom 04 (or other Alstom bonds) ? I wanted to buy at 84 a small quantity yesterday and my broker communicated to me immediately that it was too late to buy..went up by 5-7 pints yesterday. Today its price is 97
09-23-03
wally:
<PILLZ: Can someone explain me, the buyer today that put <<30 to buy a Argy-blond>>, is he brain-amputed, a maso, or a clown ?? >a combination of all listed!
09-23-03
Advice55:
Dolar against yen and agains EURO = About to stablyze...Short sellers of today will just be fuc... tomorrow, speacially in Brazil were strong good news are ahead and every one around was waiting for a deep to get back in....
09-23-03
carib:
Amigo: a "corruption index" is published every year (I am not sure if by the EIU or another institute). It's fairly accurate. Ecuador and Venezuela rank very high in the "corruption index": should we sell all Guti and Pinky bonds? The Philippines and Turkey are also "very corrupt": sell those too?
09-23-03
k1:
Vene $reserves building up every day again .. http://custp371.innerhost.com/blank... They should ease the exchangecontrolls/restrictions to get their starving economy going again. Any input on that ?
09-23-03
k1:
<PILLZ: Can someone explain me, the buyer today that put <<30 to buy a Argy-blond>>, is he brain-amputed, a maso, or a clown ?? >That is, what I ask myself for almost two years now. What supports ARG prices ?
09-23-03
amigo latino:
< carib: Amigo: list countries where governments are not corrupt, please.>This is the phrase always used by the corrupt leaders in my country: “Is not there corruption in US or in Europe? Corruption is a worldwide problem, RD is not alone with the corruption problem”
Without doubt all countries are not equal with respect to degree of corruption. Some are more corrupt than others. Especially countries without any institutions to fight corruption are possibly more corrupt.
(Before the loans for troops came about, the US embassy publicly came out condemning the rampant corruption in RD and the prevailing impunity and warned that it would cancel visas to governemnt officials noted for corruption.)
09-23-03
Glutt:
oh... here is our Advice... he buys Brazilian bonds in any quantities left and right, so if you got some of them to sell he is at your disposal…of course first he will lecture on <how it is dangerous to sell and that all sellers go to hell while all buyers go to heavens> so be patient and not confused
09-23-03
Amateur:
Carib, at current pxes, almost half the value of a Brasilian long bond is a function of UST yields. This half is fluctuating following Dubya's mistakes, not Lula's.
09-23-03
Glutt:
<PILLZ: Can someone explain me, the buyer today that put 30 to buy a Argy-blond, is he brain-amputed, a maso, or a clown ??> ??????????????
09-23-03
carib:
Summary of Glutt: corruption is bad, but stupidity and lazyness are worse. I subscribe.
09-23-03
PILLZ:
Can someone explain me, the buyer today that put 30 to buy a Argy-blond, is he brain-amputed, a maso, or a clown ??
09-23-03
Glutt:
<wally: < Amateur: After review of the Arg presentation I confirm yesterdays suspicion: There has not been a real proposal> that is exactly my opinion too!> you are really funny chaps, look if there was no one to pick ARG proposal so there was no proposal, as simple as that. Still the fact remains that ARG approached its creditors with an idea of 75% shave off on nominal principal amount and 100% loss on PDI claims. If you still continue to insist on that the offer was <fictitious> I then rest my case. What is even more funny in this regard is that Argentina prepares to begin roadshows of this <not been a real proposal> starting from mid October… so then we will facts and details from <the great Barber of Patagonia>…btw, I am not touching a topic of suggested bonds because this is really not an issue at the moment.
09-23-03
Advice55:
<I missed the top by two days (sold too early). But now I am "in the money" (fictitiously) with my sale.>Soo, get back in, or another one will do it before...
Good news ahead for Brazil this week!
09-23-03
Glutt:
so this ís stock, i see...
09-23-03
spurs:
Point taken Carib et al. Forgive me, I was just being my usual pedantic self.
09-23-03
carib:
Brasil long bonds down once again. I missed the top by two days (sold too early).
But now I am "in the money" (fictitiously) with my sale.
09-23-03
Glutt:
Amigo, somehow people tend blame everything on corruption instead of gross mismanagement and misconduct… look at Italy, probably a mother of modern corruption as when there was Ancient Rome there was noting like ARG in sight… now tell why Italy which supposedly always had a higher corruption rate did not end up like ARG? So it is not all about corruption… i always assume the following: if there is a will, there is the action, if there is no will there is no action… this in fact was my way of seeing things and many my friends seeing things same. This is why today we all achieved something compared to those who still sit and complaint that state did not give them and is corrupt. Btw, i am most poor stupid and poor of all my friends who are now heading big banks, running Putin economic office, seat in parliament and lead popular TV shows.So if irrespective of corruption existence you pledge to fight this corruption not on paper but in real world then most likely you will still have corruption after years will pass but level of this corruption will be lower and may be much lower. if you want to deal with your debt problems then there will be a solution, may be not perfect but for the most acceptable, but only if you will… it is all about you, your will, and how you achieve this will… but if you do not want then no one can help. ARG does not want or pretends it does not want, which is nearly same. IMVVVHO
09-23-03
carib:
Glutt: TMTA is, if my memory is correct, a brainchild of our friend Opti. It just happened to double in price, and it was my task to keep Colores aware of the fact...
09-23-03
carib:
Amigo: if that is not enough, consider that AFTER the Ladronvagna haircut, Argentina would still have much more debt (compared with GDP) than in 2001. I also guess Argentina will have more debt (in nominal terms) in 2005, after the restructuring, than it had the day Menem left the presidency...
09-23-03
Glutt:
carib <the 2% sweetener on the savo bond requires 1,3 billion dollars in cash , that should appear on the 2004 Argy budget. none is there. No cash, no deal. IMHO.> you forgot about <fictitious BOT surplus> and <fictitious FX reserves>... 1.3bn is not so big amount for ARG to find provided there is willingness to do so… however we know ARG has no willingness and so there is no 1 bio for savo bond. Boom…
09-23-03
carib:
Amigo: for a <reality check> on the consequences of default-deval for the average Argy citizen, just look to the nice colored graphs available on Coloresfiles today, curtesy of <Ladronvagna>. If losing 70% per capita GDP in dollar terms and 40% in real peso terms is considered "progress" one is really living in <maso-country>.
09-23-03
wally:
< Amateur: After review of the Arg presentation I confirm yesterdays suspicion: There has not been a real proposal> that is exactly my opinion too!
09-23-03
carib:
No <antarctica> bonds on the market.
Next.
09-23-03
Glutt:
Carib <TMTA> another strange animal in your hands? how you guys find these?
09-23-03
wally:
<so Prof. Wally, tell me please what you did not see yet?> there are still a lot of things i don't see yet CLEARLY. all what i can see is that the offer Argentina submitted is (if taken at face value) rubbish. there is also a contradiction in your argument because at the same time you assume a trick has been played on bondholders and that Lavagna might use the psychological impact of 75% haircut which could imply a result of a much higher NPV loss to backtrack later.now what is it? the first or the latter <comrade glut>?
09-23-03
Glutt:
alois25, of course no one assumes to invest whole fortune in rebelde buys of ARG defaulted bonds. some tiny amounts <carib: Amigo: list countries where governments are not corrupt, please.> one which comes to my mind is Antarctica
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