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Emerging Markets |
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Monday, September 22, '03
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 | Argentina gets huge IMF loan 09-22-03 (BBC) The International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide $12.5bn over the next three years to help Argentina out of its economic crisis.
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| IMF Rebuke Should Accelerate Reform Drive 09-22-03 (Yahoo) The IMF was optimistic about a global economic upturn in its report published Thursday, but remained downbeat about recovery prospects for the euro zone economy and singled out Germany for a zero growth forecast.
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| Globalization Hits Germanys Oktoberfest 09-22-03 (Yahoo) MUNICH, Germany - The polka bands struck up and beer started flowing at this year's Oktoberfest this weekend, even as the sale of a venerable Bavarian brewer to foreign owners injected tough global realities into the party.
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| More flexibility in exchange rates "desirable": G7 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (AFP) - The Group of Seven (G7) most industrialised nations said that more flexibility in international exchange rates was "desirable."
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| G7 Presses Asia to Let Its Currencies Rise 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - The Group of Seven industrial nations took aim on Saturday at Asian governments that keep a tight grip on their currencies by calling for more exchange rate flexibility to help iron out global economic imbalances.
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| Stock Rally Downshifts as the Economy Accelerates 09-22-03 (Yahoo) Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- While the economic news has looked stronger and stronger lately, the stock market has grown harder to please.
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| Argentina outlines repayment plan 09-22-03 (BBC) Argentina's government has started talks in Dubai on rescheduling at least $90bn (£55bn) of debt owed to banks and other private sector lenders.
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| Argentina rejects French Astiz bid 09-22-03 (BBC) An Argentine court has refused a request from Paris for the extradition of a former naval officer whom France has convicted of killing two nuns.
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| Brazil Wont Send Troops to Help in Iraq 09-22-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA, Brazil - Brazil has rejected a U.S. request to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq (news - web sites) because of the "difficult" security situation there, Defense Minister Jose Viegas said.
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| Will OPEC make room at the table for Iraq? 09-22-03 (Yahoo) David DeRosa , president of DeRosa Research & Trading, is an adjunct finance professor at the Yale School of Management and the author of "In Defense of Free Capital Markets." The opinions expressed are his own.
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| Iraq to Allow Full Foreign Ownership Outside Oil 09-22-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - U.S.-controlled Iraq (news - web sites) Sunday unveiled sweeping reforms allowing foreign investors into all sectors except oil, ending 30 years of state economic control.
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| Oil Hits New 4-Month Lows as Isabel Wanes 09-22-03 (Yahoo) LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices sank to fresh four-month lows on Friday as Hurricane Isabel weakened without causing much damage to U.S. energy infrastructure.
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Newest messages appear on top.
09-23-03
Advice55:
<And if Brazils debt continue to raise againts GDP>wrong assumption, it is already coming down and the trend will continue...
09-23-03
carib:
VictorN; Correct, but the"poor" italians became rich, while the rich Argentinos became poor. How do "latin american idiots" explain this?
09-23-03
turtle:
October is coming. Brazilian bradies coupon payments. Around USD 1.5 B. And I think the CB is buying USD (therefore selling BRL) to meet the payments without even touching the international reserves. Comments?
09-23-03
Advice55:
Pelegon, first of all, it will not be 20bi, it will be only 10bi, second I am not joking at all and I realy enjoy to see how surprised you all are!Surprise, instead of lending money at 5% p.a. to Brazil, IMF would like to buy Brazil bonds in the market at 650 over!
Surprises happen!
The market is dynamic and also the IMF is dynamic!
It is a better deal for the IMF and also for Brazil, soo why not?
Of course if the market tries to selloff a little before the meeting, better, better for the IMF, cause than they buy it at lower prices!
you think there any good clippers in IMF?
There are a lot...
09-23-03
Pelegrino-spo:
what a small world! turtle, what do you think of bra current prices? im starting to change my mind on brasil trade... maybe it has already gone too far, as savo says. Im not long anymore at iBovespa, though im not short. maybe its time to realize that brasil still have problems which are still unsolved. rgds.
09-23-03
victorn:
mp < I met brilliant people who explained to me that the problem there was the country's institutions> if they insist on blaming the institutions instead of blaming themselves for creating these institutions... fine with me.
09-23-03
carib:
Vic: I am not at all sure your statement is historically right. Look to the history of the abolitionist movement in XIX century Brasil: most of the anti-slavery activists were rich people...(and in many cases slave-owners). Of course the same does not apply to the ancestors of Tana de Zulueta in Cuba, who were the last large slave traders...
09-23-03
turtle:
<pelegrino> I do speak portuguese and this friend told me that somebody asked if I was the guy on the bradynet forum. I entered the forum but to tell you the truth I didn't like it that much. So much bullshit, then I saw your nickname and reminded me you have posted some good (sometimes funny) stuff here about Brazil.
09-23-03
victorn:
carib <Well, if Italians were Argentinos they would be poor. They are not> obviously there are many differences between the two and the development cycle, but once upon a time italians were also poor. Just like the swiss, americans, etc.
09-23-03
Pelegrino-spo:
<turtle> do u speak Portuguese? i was asking for you in another board... how do you know it?
09-23-03
Pelegrino-spo:
<Instead of the IMF giving new money for brazil at lower than market rates, it just buys Brazil bonds at the market and stays with that bonds in portfolio, soo at the end of the day, instead of having in position a debt with brazil with lower rates, IMF will have a det with Brazil with higher rates in portfolio....>Advice, are you joking? Better: are you f---ing joking with us? So IMF will tell the market its going to buy around USD 20Bi at current prices of Brazilian bonds @ 90% face value? Hehehhehehe... And if Brazils debt continue to raise againts GDP, and bonds meltdown, what happens? Everybody f---ed with no IMF to save when it reaches 50%? You MUST be kidding.
Glub & glub.
09-23-03
victorn:
carib <were actually more active in promoting rights than in favoring their own class> this is the second-stage of development that has been reached by europe and the u.s., not by latam or other developing countries. In this second stage prestige, connections, power, etc can be tied to altruisms like charity and so forth. This is probably because govts are not as dependent on the upper class of their respective countries as in developing nations. The large middle class supports the govt in these second-stage developed nations so the upper class is displaced, in terms of relative power.In primary-stage developing countries, where the govt is dependent on the upper class capital and where govts are more corrupt on average, all these altruisms are harder to come by, as they don't make much sense. Obviously, there are exceptions to this rule (i think that wealthy people have a lot more power in developing nations than in developed ones).
09-23-03
Advice55:
Thanks turtle!
IMF agreement with Brazil might be a lot more suprising than traders think!
09-23-03
turtle:
<Pelegrino> I heard you were looking for me..........where the hell are you?
09-23-03
turtle:
<advice> C-Bond: 92 figure - 92 1/4
09-23-03
moneypenny:
When I was in Argentina last year, I met brilliant people who explained to me that the problem there was the country's institutions. They were weak, changeable and had a bad habit of turning to mush at critical times. All of them - courts, laws, civic organizations, title-deed offices, political organs, other guarantors of private property rights. Nothing stays solid. The ground always gives. This is one reason why dollarization for Argentina in particular is such a sound idea. The governmentos wouldn't have any control at all over the currency on that plan, which, given their record, could only benefit the country. At least one thing wouldn't turn to mud under their feet. Maybe it would be enough of a springboard to support other institutions.
09-23-03
Advice55:
<<advice> I doubt this issue is even being considered by the IMF>Turtle, you better believe me than, cause it is on the table right now...
I guess it will be a big surprise, not only for you, but for 90% of EM traders!
Regards!
09-23-03
carib:
Nice upside for Conseco, today ;-))
09-23-03
Advice55:
Wally, do you have CBond prices? sorry to borrow you, Big Squid is asking!
09-23-03
victorn:
mp <are related?> not really, just making up some bad excuses :-) hanke is right in the sense that latam has never been able to accomplish its potential in large part because of the bad governments it has had. Actually, i would say: "por donde pasó la huella de cervantes..." simply don't expect too much from latam countries or from spain. Your expectations should be moderate because there is a good chance that these countries will not live up to expectations.
09-23-03
carib:
Victorn: that is the stupid and maso aspect of human nature. Fortunately human nature has more to offer. Most of the rich women MP I knew personally were actually more active in promoting rights than in favoring their own class. But of course, people who are stupid, selfish and narrow minded tend to attribute such "qualities" to human nature. Wrong: idiocy is not like AIDS, it can be contained.
You remember the say: Argentinos are Italians who speak spanish etc etc.
Well, if Italians were Argentinos they would be poor. They are not.
09-23-03
victorn:
carib, i know you are right, but they don't. The perón-duarte couple taught them that the correct perspective is 2:0 and not 1:1. She is still called Santa Evita. What else can you expect?
09-23-03
carib:
Victorn: those argentinos are wrong. The guy with two cows has milk to sell. No more cows, no more milk. The proof? Argentina is poorer now than 80 years ago. Then Argentina was better off than Italy and Korea. Compare now.
09-23-03
moneypenny:
Vic: You think the two thoughts, those of Hanke and Don Porfirio, are related???? Interesting idea...(Check mail por favor)
09-23-03
victorn:
mp, <Bad Ideas Have A Long Shelf-Life In Latin America> why would this be? "México, tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de los Estados Unidos". :-))
09-23-03
victorn:
carib, the problem is that argies don't view the two cows as providing milk for both. they view the 2 cows as providing milk only for the owner of both animals.
09-23-03
victorn:
carib, social resentment is very large in euro countries too. this reminds of a question posed by someone: a rich woman gets elected to congress (in whatever country). Will she pursue an agenda that benefits women rights? or will she pursue an agenda that benefits the upper class? On average, i would say the latter. $ comes first. On average, there is no reason why a poor argy should feel sorry for a rich argy losing his shirt on arg bonds. i think that i could safely extrapolate this sentence to other countries as well... this is just human nature.
09-23-03
carib:
Very good day for GRIC, by the way.
09-23-03
moneypenny:
I think it was Hanke who once said 'Bad Ideas Have A Long Shelf-Life In Latin America.' Argentina worst of all, though there is still Castro.
09-23-03
carib:
Victorn: yours is a rethorical question. When there is destruction of capital, capitalists lose more than non capitalist. The maid will not lose her capital, she will lose her job.
BTW: in the Argy maso-frenzy, I believe millions of non-rich people lost mightily: think to all the small bank depositors who were too small to bank in Montevideo (let alone Miami). Most Argy Robber-barons actually profited from the mess, it is likely. Bandits like Duhladron try to exploit this resentments to promote more banditry.
09-23-03
carib:
Victorn: it's a cultural problem. "latin-american idiocy" is very high there. Your neighbor has two cows. You have none. Poison the two cows, so your neighbor will suffer. Too bad neither of you will have any milk after that...
09-23-03
victorn:
mp <once they realize GNoE is about to start treating them like Africa> the difference between our opinions is that i don't think that the u.s. govt will treat them like africa as a result of this default (and bad faith negotiating it).
09-23-03
moneypenny:
Vic: Perhaps this can be called 'The O'Null Doctrine.' Or 'The O'Null-Snow Doctrine.' Let's hope that their hands-off policy snaps Argy ladrones into some sense once they realize GNoE is about to start treating them like Africa and the silver lining will be freedom from IMF meddling.
09-23-03
victorn:
pana, re being nervous about investing in em countries after argy precedent. I feel just like you. But let me make a point based on carib's <El secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, John Snow, aseguró hoy que su país "no puede darle consejos" a la Argentina>. I interpret this as: "we realize that globalization has failed. the u.s. will now only give advice to the countries that are in its radius of interest. Those that are not, like argy, should deal with problems anyway they can". This makes the case for giving more importance to geopolitical considerations when choosing countries. Also, i would suggest staying away from countries with a high rating, as these countries can have a tendency to get into too much debt. Examples would of course be argy & uru that got into so much debt as a result of their high debt ratings in the 90's. If these countries had had a lower rating during this period, they would be better off right now.
09-23-03
amigo latino:
<Tica:yes have the 5% of '06. have been all over. Bought in Jan at 70, March 31 was at 53, June 30 was at 73, a few days ago at 84. If now 97 time to sell and thank them very much. ……> Tica, your investment turned out to be excellent. Today, the prices are: 06: 86 and the 04 : 97.
09-23-03
victorn:
carib, <Argentinos lost, directly or indirectly, about 50% of total assets... The idea that defaulting on public debt is a clever way to make the nation prosper and foreigners suffer is the product of a masochist mind with low IQ> how is the distribution of this debt in terms of argy social classes? if most of this debt is owned by argy upper classes, the masses will also be very happy to nail them. Social resentment and class envy is very large there.
09-23-03
carib:
Turtle: I share your opinion on this.
09-23-03
turtle:
<Carib> I'd say 2.90/3.00 is a very good range. Unless something huge happens in this "war" on currency devaluation. I think the brazilian Central Bank is doing an excellent job on reducing the currency volatility. What do you colores think?
09-23-03
carib:
Turtle: where do you see the R$ moving, in that framework?
09-23-03
turtle:
<advice> I doubt this issue is even being considered by the IMF. Both IMF and Brazil want to get rid of each other (the IMF not so much as Brazil is the only one remaining that has followed IMF's instructions and hasn't defaulted, at least yet) The recent argentine experience is scaring everyone in New York.
In my opinion the Brazilian treasury will reach an agreement with the IMF, and I'm expecting a lot better one. Those are the terms I'm expecting:
- US$ 10 billion stand by package;
- 1 year long;
- 3% Primary surplus ;
- State owned companies and social government expenses' won't be regarded as expense for the primary surplus purpose.
09-23-03
moneypenny:
Thailand proving lethal to the tentacles of al qaida. This isn't the first time they have done something big. Al Qaida dirtbags better not find themselves crossing paths with these ultra-stealthy, smart, quick and effective Siamese terminators anymore. Let's give the Thais a free trip to the IMF till, just, well, because.
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/s...
09-23-03
tica9:
"amigo latino: Does anybody have Alstom 04 (or other Alstom bonds) ? I wanted to buy at 84 a small quantity yesterday and my broker communicated to me immediately that it was too late to buy..went up by 5-7 pints yesterday. Today its price is 97" Yes have the 5% of '06. have been all over. Bought in Jan at 70, March 31 was at 53, June 30 was at 73, a few days ago at 84. If now 97 time to sell and thank them very much.
09-23-03
wally:
<But what language iss it dat de Austrians speak?> definitely not 'tchermann' <MoneyPenny> :~))
09-23-03
spurs:
<Question is: do they want effective counter-terrorism war, or just a state of fear and tension? >Im pretty sure they actually want both. There is an election in Nov 04, and Bush is generally perceived as being stronger in terms of National Security than any democrat candidate. For the administrations purposes, it is better to have a certain amount of fear of terrorism. Makes his re-election prospects higher.
And of course, Islamic terrorists are not the only threats to US security. There are ecological pressure groups, anti-military groups, civil libertarians, all of which might be seen as threats to the security of the US by the current bunch of military-industrial complex boys.
I think Putin and Co have found that they have a lot in common with the Cold Warriors running the White House these days.
09-23-03
moneypenny:
Carib: <even if they intend to perform a suicide attack.> ESPECIALLY if they intend to perform a suicide attack. Not paying one's VISA card because one is dead is usually cheaper and more economical for a busy terrorist on the go.
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