 |
Emerging Markets |
Posted by
BradyNet
(
Thursday, September 25, '03
)
| |
|
|
*NEW*
Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar
|
 | IMF Board OKs Argentina Deal 09-25-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - The IMF (news - web sites) approved an economic plan for Argentina on Saturday aimed at bolstering investor confidence and growth in a country deeply scarred by a botched peso devaluation and a record sovereign debt default last year.
|
| Strong Dollar, Weak Dollar: Anyone Have a Scorecard? 09-25-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 23 — Rarely have so many people in so many countries been pushing for the dollar to get weaker rather than stronger.
|
| IMFs Koehler Calls for Unity Over Iraq 09-25-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - IMF (news - web sites) chief Horst Koehler called on world leaders on Wednesday to set aside their differences over Iraq (news - web sites) so that Washington-based global lenders can get on with their work of rebuilding the war-torn country.
|
| IMF backs G7 on currency, World Bank supports poor on agriculture 09-25-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (AFP) - The International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) (IMF) backed a call by the Group of Seven (G7) industrialised states for more flexibility in exchange rates, at the start of the IMF's annual meeting with the World Bank (news - web sites).
|
| Election Economics 09-25-03 (Yahoo) When government officials asked people if they had a job last month, 137.6 million said "yes." But when employers were asked, they said they had only 129.8 million on nonfarm payrolls.
|
| U.S. Takes Sides in Debate Over High-Tech Economy 09-25-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (Reuters) - Trying to explain exactly how much of U.S. economic growth can be pegged to spending on computers has created major headaches for the government's number-crunchers in recent times.
|
| Clark Offers Economic Plan in N.Y. Speech 09-25-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK - Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark on Wednesday outlined an economic plan that he said would move $100 billion in tax cuts for the wealthy into "job creating funds."
|
| Holders of Argentine Bonds Reject 25% Redemption Offer 09-25-03 (NY Times) rgentina's gambit of offering to pay back a quarter of the $94 billion it owes private bondholders worldwide provoked a predictably angry rejection from investors yesterday, and analysts predicted long and painful negotiations.
|
| Chilean president pay tribute to poet Pablo Neruda 09-25-03 (Yahoo) ISLA NEGRA, Chile (AFP) - Chilean President Ricardo Lagos and hundreds of others paid tribute at the grave of poet Pablo Neruda on the 30th anniversary of his death.
|
| Russian position gains as US hunts for oil 09-25-03 (Yahoo) Nearly every international oil company has a horror story about losing money in Russia in the 1990s, but Moscow is again teaming with foreign oil executives and in Houston, Russia has lost its reputation as a dirty word.
|
| One gun for every 20 Africans 09-25-03 (BBC) There is one weapon in circulation for every 20 people in Africa, according to a report released on Tuesday.
|
| OPECs Surprise Production Cut Sends Market Into Nosedive 09-25-03 (Washington Post) The stock market went into another steep slide today after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unexpectedly agreed to cut crude oil production by 3.5 percent.
|
| Energy Futures Soar as OPEC Agrees to Trim Output 09-25-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK -- Crude-oil and petroleum-products futures jumped Wednesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unexpectedly agreed to reduce the group's oil-production target by 3.5%.
|
| Natural Gas Panel Releases Report 09-25-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - Greater energy efficiency and conservation are vital to keeping natural gas prices lower and less volatile as North American production of this critical fuel levels off, according to a report by a committee of oil and gas executives that advises the Energy Department
|
| OPEC unexpectedly cutting production 09-25-03 (Yahoo) VIENNA - OPEC, the cartel representing many of the world's oil exporting countries, surprised oil observers Wednesday by announcing a 3.5 per cent production cut.
|
| |
Newest messages appear on top.
09-26-03
Alexander:
<<<09-26-03 PILLZ: Danny, time to sell Brazil, at 11 YTM, where is the upside ??>>>>right !!!!
was out last week......
09-26-03
PILLZ:
Danny, time to sell Brazil, at 11 YTM, where is the upside ??Good night..à demain
09-26-03
danni:
bra cb; "The central bank also said the country posted a current account surplus of $1.2 billion in August, the highest level in 11 months, and foreign direct investment totaled about $980 million in August". AND LULA :"The nation doesn't need a new International Monetary Fund loan accord, though it is pursuing talks with the fund, Lula told a standing room-only crowd of 200 in a dark-paneled room hung with portraits of noted Council on Foreign Relations members such as David Rockefeller".
09-26-03
danni:
Lula won plaudits from Robert Rubin, chairman of the executive committee at Citigroup Inc. and a former U.S. Treasury secretary, who introduced him at the event in New York.``He was elected and took office at a time of difficulty and uncertainty in the Brazilian economy and he has steered a wise and sensible course in response to meeting economic challenges,'' Rubin said. ``That success and continued success are of enormous importance not just to the people of Brazil but to the United States and the entire global economy because of the size and potential of the Brazilian economy.'' AND THAT WAY BUY & HOLD LULA & CLIPCLIP.
09-26-03
carib:
Wally: <not a gourmet>cannibal...de gustibus, non est disputandum...
but I was looking at the issue from the point of view of the "meal" rather than the one of the cannibal...
09-25-03
carib:
SPAL; will wait for your week-end ITWO-study. basically the figures I saw show ITWO has a negative shareholders value, but is also sitting on plenty cash, and has a good gross revenue. all voodoo to me, certainly no SAY, but fellows from Bangalore are usually bright...
09-25-03
SPAL:
<Hope Itwo follows BLX, despite the fact Pilly is right that from a balance shit point of view, ITWO is worth nothing...> again I will take a further look on the w/end, but I recall that the Yahoo balance shit was an old shit ... there have been changes and corrections since [even if they were ordered by the SEC!!] ... also remember that it is a sofware company and we are dealing in the notoriously voodoo world of off-balance shit 'intangibles' ... anyhow I don't want to be too defensive as I usually insist that non-performing schtoks be dumped and acquired lower [obviously!!] ...
09-25-03
carib:
Spal: thanks for the update. I took 15K ITWO @ 1,36. Maybe I should load another 10K if it re-drops to 1$. as colores can see, we are placing "small" bets on this "voodoo"stocks. but a "small" bet of 35K$ last year, on BLX, when we started discussing that shtock, is now worth 290K$, considering the gains of the additional shares subscribed....Hope Itwo follows BLX, despite the fact Pilly is right that from a balance shit point of view, ITWO is worth nothing...But some colores were also arguing that GX was worth nothing...
09-25-03
drjbg:
<<Anyhow drjbr I think we so have our fun in such debates and in them learn something...>> Very graciously said.
09-25-03
wally:
<there quest> = "their" quest!
09-25-03
wally:
<Can a newbie like me join the meeting in Fiji 3 1/2?> we like newbies <mon>. sometimes there quest for information is able to draw our attention to the fact that some of us can't see the forest because of too many trees. contact me for details.wfh211@aol.com
09-25-03
wally:
<carib: Wally: concerning <cannibals> there is where we disagree> i can understand that very well. obviously you are (unlike me) not a gourmet.:~)))
09-25-03
SPAL:
Will provide my own more detailed take on ITWO on the WE - no time now as I have an early AM flight ... suffice to say that I loaded 24K at $1.55 average and will hold. Very simply i2 has a good framework out of which it can rebuild a stronger franchise ... although absolutely there are no g/tees. The SCM [supply chain management] software space continues to morph ... the first round of humungous off-the-shelf installations clearly peaked a couple of years and some of this disapointed ... some of the ideas [like fully integrated demand forecasting and integrated B2B front ends where too ambitious then, BUT the worm has turned ... there are now very viable, surviving e-commerce market places and my bet is that the i2 boys have their buddies in Bangalore hard at work customizing the general "off-the-shelf" modules so that they can be slotted into a more mainstream customer base ... also the big buyers are nearing the horizon where they will take another run at this ... SAP just announced some alliances in the banking sector for example. Also since the installed base is already high marketing costs have been slashed and I think we will be surprised by how much expenses have been cut.In general my view is that there is 60% chance of continued NASTY weakness over the next week or so, but I see solid resistance at 1650 and we are nearing the point where averaging down makes some sense. As necessary I have used stops and for instance cleaned out ALVR a while back ... I am thinking of a limit purchase either here or if further weakness at $5.50 at which point it becomes a screaming BUY.
Clearly many of the higher flyers, more speculative issues have been clipped a bit, but my view is that there is maybe at worst another 10% to go on most of these ... those with most punch on the upside when volume comes back into the market mid-Oct include VOCL ... VRSO also looks good and is well wound up if it gets to the high 3's.
Cucarachas are a nice shelter CU has turned out nicely [Fox how do you see the tragetory from here? What is yr. target? BTW I stopped out TGS and TEO would you reload??]
Finally AAWH.PK was up 18% today ... full "dark voodoo" here, but the stars are aligning ...
09-25-03
carib:
What <right> had the "barbarians" to invade the Roman empire? well, the same "right" (or lack thereoff) that allowed the romans to build their Empire. The "right" of Roman invaders was not "superior". but their civilization was, at least if one compare Europe in the centuries that followed Roman colonization to the centuries that followed the "barbaric invasions". The winner "wins", but this does not always imply an ability to introduce a better system. It's often a matter of opinion. I prefer the British Empire (with all its shortcomings) to the "cannibal empire". Others are free to prefer the opposite. The winner always claims he acted "rightly", but this is a subjective interpretation. The real question is: in the long term, is the "new order" better or worse than the previous order? That is the question. A sistem where ladies who cheat on their husbands can be divorced, rather than lapidated, and the same applies to husbands who cheat on their wives, is in my opinion preferable to lapidation. It's just a matter of personal opinion.
09-25-03
danni:
Shana Tova VeMetuka vemozlagt to every one.
09-25-03
Advice55:
<everyone was to tilted to the other side> True, many stops were done today in interest futures in Brazil...And good one from <Andrei> there fox!
09-25-03
carib:
Mon: I guess you are welcome! e-mail wally for practical info, I guess...
09-25-03
Advice55:
<Hey, nice words...very far from classical "latin american Idiots" textbooks...>Agree Carib, looks like big squid is finaly getting to the point...
09-25-03
Mon:
Can a newbie like me join the meeting in Fiji 3 1/2? I have learned a lot (and profited) from all of your inputs and would like to meet with you gentlemen. Please advise. Thank you.
09-25-03
SPAL:
<Fijians taking over the british empire to establish a cannibal empire.>!!
09-25-03
SPAL:
< Your uncanny understanding of others' feelings and sense of self is truely remarkable. You should have been a psychologist! Or are you speaking ex-cathedra?> in the sense that I am informed by a higher authority, no ... just a sensitive soul like you.<<Howsomeever the case, I wear any "humanism" label with great honor. There could be no higher accolade. >> I do not mean this to sound dispairing as I am in a sense the opposite of this, but if man itself was the final measure than it is but a very meager measuring stick indeed ... the great motivations are some how strangely other-wordly ... humanism or more prosaically our human condition is as much tragic as anything else ... humanism is at the same time a cross to bear as it is a badge to honor ... we are all human yes, but in the final analysis so what?
Anyhow drjbr I think we so have our fun in such debates and in them learn something - at least I do and to assure Glutt there is no emnity [not lasting anyhow ...]...
Suggestion to the others ... it is always a sign that markets are temporarily bearish when Spal gets philosophical ... always ensure stops are in place when you see this!!
09-25-03
carib:
<Lula criticou pessoas que culpam os países desenvolvidos pela má distribuição de renda no Brasil."Os nossos problemas não são culpa dos Estados Unidos ou da União Européia, nem de Deus. A culpa é das nossas elites", disse.
O presidente também disse que o Brasil enfrenta agora os efeitos de políticas que nunca levaram à frente um programa para diminuir as desigualdades sociais no país.
"Nem mesmo entre as décadas de 50 e 80, quando a nossa economia cresceu a 7%, houve uma política de redistribuição de renda. Já jogamos muita chance fora, e eu não vou jogar essa chance.">
Hey, nice words...very far from classical "latin american Idiots" textbooks...
09-25-03
carib:
Wally: I still ignore if the "lapidation" solution applies in the same terms to both sexes, if it only applies to muslims, and if muslims are free to renounce their religion without civil consequences.
I am <very ignorant>
09-25-03
carib:
Wally: concerning <cannibals> there is where we disagree. I am not arguing that the Britons had a "right" to stop the cannibals. I am just glad they did. Consider the opposite possibility: Fijians taking over the british empire to establish a cannibal empire. They did it where they managed to conquer, as a matter of fact. I would'n have liked that. In the same way, I prefer us stopping islamists from lapidating ladies, rather than the said islamists imposing their ways upon us. The idea of cannibals, lapidators and liberal democracies co-existing without bothering each other I consider unrealistic, to say the least.
09-25-03
carib:
Gaucho: I agree with your last statement. It's hard to imagine Brasil suddenly managing low rates with no inflation, but current rates are in my opinion way too high. I am not only referring to SELIC, that has the biggest impact on the cost of servicing the domestic debt, but also the combined effects of compulsorio, taxes and whatcmacallits, that bring consumer interest rates to piracy levels. All this is just an uninformed opinion from an external observer. In the long term, I think Brasil should find a way to part from the "culture" of perennial inflation, considered as an effective system for solving otherwise politically intractable problems. But it might take a long while.
09-25-03
Advice55:
<come down slow...>Although not soo slow as 0.5% a month any more, like market was pricing in this afternoon...
09-25-03
Advice55:
<My hunch is that the real interest rate can be safely brought down to 6%-8%>I agree with you gaucho, but it has to come down slow...
09-25-03
Amateur:
<how real interest rates can be so low in Argentina.> <<because the banking system has been so crippled and...long term bank credit is not actually available and the real interest is for short term money markets only?>> BINGO, your asumption is 100% right. There is no real credit, just some excess liquidity that the public is too scared to put in the banks, and when it does, the banks are too scared to lend, so all funds just go to the Central Bank Letras at ever falling rates. The liquidity comes from the part of the 12 bln trade surplus that is being monetized (ard 4 bln?) The other 8 bln go to private acumulation of foreign balances (or reduction in fgn debts).Why does this excess liquidity not go to buy dollars? Because the panic has pased (for the time being), and there is a consensus that the dollar is still too expensive. Why doesnt it go to prices? High unemployment, stagnant salaries and spare capacity keep pxes stable.
What could unsettle this unhealthy equilibrium? Probably only a new panic, that would terminate the <dollar is too expensive> climate and redirect the idle pesos to the dollar.
Is Brasil's framework so different? I would say, only in grade. Credit markets work, but the cheap BRL, high unemployment & GDP gap seem to be present, even if in a more moderate degree.
09-25-03
SPAL:
<<Shana tova l'khaverim !!!>> Allow me to pass on the same good wishes to friends here ...
09-25-03
Gaucho1:
<Look at Argentina as comparison.>As Fox said, Brazil's high real interest rate is a mistery even to the best economic minds. It has been variously attributed to high indebtedness, risk premia, inflationary past, low domestic savings, compulsory credit mechanisms and even hysteresis (!). But Argentina shares most of these traits and, as you pointed out, manages to get by with much lower inflation.
Yet the fact of the matter is, when real interest rates fell below 11% in Brazil, inflation threatened to rear its ugly head and the CB was forced to step on the proverbial monetary brakes.
I am of the belief that the equilibrium long-term real interest rate is much lower than 10%, especially now that global real interest rates and credit spreads are at secular lows. My hunch is that the real interest rate can be safely brought down to 6%-8% (there is a paper in the Central Bank site that seeks to estimate the long term equilibrium real interest rate in Brazil; according to one of the estimates, it is around 7%)
On the other hand, I cannot understand how real interest rates can be so low in Argentina. Might it be because the banking system has been so crippled and is in such feeble shape, that long term bank credit is not actually available and the real interest is for short term money markets only?
09-25-03
moneypenny:
Gee, they're awfully fond of the GNoE dollar over in dear old Mexico. Why don't they learn to love the peso, as the IMF, the government bureaucrats, George Bush and Little Pauly Krugman instructs? What's wrong with these people? Why don't they listen? http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...
<(09-24) 20:51 PDT NEW YORK (AP) -- Money sent from Mexican workers in the United States to their families back home has reached a record $12 billion in 2003, Mexican President Vicente Fox said Wednesday.
Remittances "are our biggest source of foreign income, bigger than oil, tourism or foreign investment," Fox told reporters after a meeting with Mexican-American businessmen.
"The 20 million Mexicans in the United States generate a gross product that is slightly higher than the $600 billion generated by Mexicans in Mexico," Fox said, adding that his country has the ninth-largest economy in the world.>
09-25-03
Pelegrino-spo:
Hey guys, do you realy think Brasil will grow? so tell me, please tell me, how a nation would be able to grow with these interest rates (<MONTHLY> speaking):Cheque especial (interest paid if one get in red in his current account): 8,37%
Consumer credit: 5,87%
Business credit (duplicata and capital de giro): 4,53% and 5,87%
As i said, those are MONTHLY interest rates. You guys think our problem is a miserable 20% Selic annualy interest rate? Hehehehehhe...
glub & glub
09-25-03
Fox:
Buenas Noches Muchachos!
Hasta Mañana Caballeros!
It has been a pleasure sharing this day with you all!!
PD: Im not joking!
09-25-03
Amateur:
Gaucho, <how do you know your assumption is true?> Of course I dont <know>, but I <believe>. Look at Argentina as comparison. After strong devaluation and recession, there is such a buffer in excess supply of goods, and such a consensus that the peso is still undervalued, that we have 8% nominal rates and inflation does not react above 2/3% yearly. (And that with a very capital-unfriendly government.)Brasil should also have a big GDP gap and a <dollar too expensive> sensation, enabling a MUCH lower domestic rate. Of course my conviction might be mistaken, I am not an expert in Brasilian data, but I am an avid reader and have not seen really convincing arguments for maintaining such a tough monetary policy, when inflation is receding and there in no pressure on the BRL.
09-25-03
panasonic:
<Fox> wise words and fully agree...just was joking to see if <Grande> & <Escipion> posted something :-)
Index of older articles by date
*NEW* Historical archive from 1998-1999
Please read our disclaimer.
Home Page |
BradyNet Pro |
Search |
CyberExchange
Forfaiting |
Closing Prices |
Live Prices |
New Issues |
Ratings
BradyNet Tour |
BradyNet FORUMs |
BradyNet Email Directory |
Index (Site Map)
Analysis & Research |
BradyNet Center |
News |
Jobs
General Correspondence: bradynet@bradynet.com
Questions/Problems? support@bradynet.com
This site copyright © 1995-2000 BradyNet.com
