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Friday, September 26, '03
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 | Globalizing corporate reform 09-26-03 (Yahoo) LONDON From the collapse of Enron two years ago to Richard Grasso's departure last week as head of the New York Stock Exchange, the stresses that personal greed imposes on American capitalism have seldom been laid so bare.
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 | Housing Sector Shines Amid Otherwise Mixed Data 09-26-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A batch of U.S. economic reports on Thursday showed a sizzling housing sector and a hint of improvement in the jobs market, but a drop in demand for costly factory goods left a reminder the economy is not yet back to full health.
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 | Clark Lays Out Economic Plan For Presidency 09-26-03 (Washington Post) Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark offered the first domestic plan of his young presidential campaign yesterday, calling for a reduction of the Bush tax cuts for households earning more than $200,000 to pay for new spending on homeland security, state governments and job-creation programs.
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 | U.S. Income Gap Widening, Study Says 09-26-03 (NY Times) he gap between rich and poor more than doubled from 1979 to 2000, an analysis of government data shows.
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 | Credit Card Delinquencies Down a Bit 09-26-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. credit card delinquencies slipped in the second quarter from a record high as mortgage refinancing gave consumers extra cash to pay bills, a bank group said on Wednesday.
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 | IMF Board OKs Argentina Deal 09-25-03 (Yahoo) DUBAI (Reuters) - The IMF (news - web sites) approved an economic plan for Argentina on Saturday aimed at bolstering investor confidence and growth in a country deeply scarred by a botched peso devaluation and a record sovereign debt default last year.
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 | Strong Dollar, Weak Dollar: Anyone Have a Scorecard? 09-25-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 23 — Rarely have so many people in so many countries been pushing for the dollar to get weaker rather than stronger.
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 | Provincial poll puts the heat on Argentine president 09-26-03 (Financial Times) Spring has only just come to Posadas but the heat is already beginning to tell. Listless construction workers sip iced herbal tea from hollowed-out gourds,
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 | Brazil to Lift Ban on Crops With Genetic Modification 09-26-03 (NY Times) ORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, Sept. 24 - Brazilian farmers, the world's No. 2 producers of soybeans, got the go-ahead today to plant genetically modified seeds this season after the country's vice president said he would lift a ban on transgenic crops.
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 | Brazil seeks to unite developing countries in anti-subsidy fight at WTO 09-26-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA (AFP) - The government of Brazilian (news - web sites) President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva is appealing for greater solidarity among developing countries attending a WTO conference next week in their fight to tear down trade barriers in the developed world.
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 | Holders of Argentine Bonds Reject 25% Redemption Offer 09-25-03 (NY Times) rgentina's gambit of offering to pay back a quarter of the $94 billion it owes private bondholders worldwide provoked a predictably angry rejection from investors yesterday, and analysts predicted long and painful negotiations.
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 | Chilean president pay tribute to poet Pablo Neruda 09-25-03 (Yahoo) ISLA NEGRA, Chile (AFP) - Chilean President Ricardo Lagos and hundreds of others paid tribute at the grave of poet Pablo Neruda on the 30th anniversary of his death.
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 | Russian position gains as US hunts for oil 09-25-03 (Yahoo) Nearly every international oil company has a horror story about losing money in Russia in the 1990s, but Moscow is again teaming with foreign oil executives and in Houston, Russia has lost its reputation as a dirty word.
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 | Support for Philippine president at a new low 09-26-03 (Financial Times) The approval rating of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the Philippine president, fell to a record low this month, apparently hurt by accusations of corruption against her husband and associates.
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 | Doubts Expressed as Bush Presses Asia on Currency 09-26-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Sept. 24 — Publicly berating China and Japan over their exchange rates is winning the Bush administration praise from American manufacturers, but is not playing so well among economists.
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 | Asian currencies to see biggest impact from dollar shift: analysts 09-25-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (AFP) - Stronger Asian currencies and a weaker dollar are the likely result of an effort by the Group of Seven industrialized nations to deal with economic imbalances, analysts said.
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 | UN Seeks Vaccine Cash for Africa Meningitis Belt 09-26-03 (Yahoo) GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (news - web sites) said Thursday it was running out of time to raise money for a vaccine that protects people in Africa's "meningitis belt" from a vicious new form of the killer disease.
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 | One gun for every 20 Africans 09-25-03 (BBC) There is one weapon in circulation for every 20 people in Africa, according to a report released on Tuesday.
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 | OPEC cuts oil targets 3.5% in surprise move 09-26-03 (Yahoo) Prices for home heating oil and gasoline jumped sharply yesterday on the New York futures markets and the stock market suffered its largest one-day percentage drop since May after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a surprise move, cut oil production targets 3.5 percent yesterday in an effort to bolster profits.
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 | Price of Oil Climbs as OPEC Plans to Cut Output 09-26-03 (NY Times) IENNA, Sept. 24 — OPEC unexpectedly agreed today to cut oil production on Nov. 1, just as most of the developed world will be heading toward winter and demand for heating oil is likely to be rising.
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 | OPECs Surprise Production Cut Sends Market Into Nosedive 09-25-03 (Washington Post) The stock market went into another steep slide today after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unexpectedly agreed to cut crude oil production by 3.5 percent.
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 | Energy Futures Soar as OPEC Agrees to Trim Output 09-25-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK -- Crude-oil and petroleum-products futures jumped Wednesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unexpectedly agreed to reduce the group's oil-production target by 3.5%.
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Newest messages appear on top.
09-26-03
Pelegrino-spo:
:30am 09/26/03
U.S. Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.3% By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, slightly faster than the previous 3.1 percent estimate, the Commerce Department said Friday. The revisions were small, reflecting greater inventory accumulation and higher spending on home building. Offsetting those increases, imports were revised higher and spending on business structures was revised lower. Corporate profits were slightly weaker than first estimated. Inflation was revised slightly higher. Growth was spurred by consumer spending and the largest increase in defense spending since the Korean War. Business investment strengthened, imports grew, and spending by state and local governments shrank.
09-26-03
Fox:
The ScreenSaver is fantastic!!
09-26-03
Advice55:
<it is weekend>soo your weekend starts on friday morning! Nice, very nice! New year parties start when? Beggening of october?
09-26-03
savonarola:
amigo..<Savo, one could lose a fortune following(implementing) the unerweight/ overweight recommendations of the Investment analysts>Of course I agree with that.
I posted it though, because MS is the first bank that has decided to stop singing <Barrionuevo's tune>.
<Anals> tend to follow each other and repeat what everybody elses say developping some sort of common wisdom that as it is being repeated day after day people end up thinking that it is true. The famous <nobody gets fired for buying IBM>
The OCP as an art creation <not to be used> is the most recent one. But there have been others.
<Barrionuevo> has until Nov 15 to prove himself right. If Guano does not default by then, he should be fired.
I thought I was important to know that there is at least one bank now sharing our views.
09-26-03
Glutt:
Advice <Do you want to see my <size>? Will have to ask my wife, but believe me, if I were you I would not ask!> lets discuss size of Advice... it is weekend ...heyaaaaa
09-26-03
Advice55:
Looks like the deal between TCP and TCOC is about to happen after all!Also very good numbers in the extrnal accounts of Brazil in agosto...
980milhones direct investment and current account positive....
09-26-03
ruspan:
leo: <Sold turk 30 now I'm full of cash and don't know where to invest it!!> I still hold my "aircraft carriers" for the same reason: sitting in a lot of cash with no good ideas. At least I have procured it to be an EU cash :-)
09-26-03
Advice55:
<Advice, the matter of size is your personal tragedy>Glutt, my <size> is my wifes problem (or happiness) and no only here´s!
Do you want to see my <size>? Will have to ask my wife, but believe me, if I were you I would not ask!
09-26-03
Fox:
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/vfo...It is a bit old but worthwhile looking at it.
09-26-03
amigo latino:
Questions for those living in Brazil(or knowledgeable about Brazil) concerning Brazil interst rates:1) Why the banking interset rates(nominal and real) are high? Also please give approximate historic interest rates if possiblel(5-10 yrs).
2) What are the current and historic interest rates on motgages in non-bankng private lending channels ?
09-26-03
Glutt:
leo, i somehow surprised to know you still have (actually had) Turks ….till today… anyway, lucky you, I again missed this Turk play for the second time. For the record, I was out of Turkey since April.Advice, the matter of size is your personal tragedy, no help on this…
09-26-03
wally:
<wallyIthinkthereisnoreasontoaskforpri>:~)))
09-26-03
Advice55:
SPX´s at 994 could be the bottom of this downside movement on the short term.... If it brakes that, 989 is next, but indicators are already oversold.....That is why I say it starts to get <dangerous> to play on the sell side here....
09-26-03
leo:
Sold turk 30 now I'm full of cash and don't know where to invest it!!
09-26-03
Advice55:
Actualy, I think SPX is already oversold and a Rebound could start at any moment now...
09-26-03
Advice55:
Hey, spx traders, be calm, I am not in that mood and do not intend to be so soon!SPX just dived a cople of points.....
09-26-03
Advice55:
wallyIthinkthereisnoreasontoaskforpricesatthispointinthemorningcauseusinvestorsarestillsleepingandthereisnoliquidityaround
09-26-03
Advice55:
<WHEN, exactly, have you ever been in a <selling mood>, advice55?>Started with that kind of mood in 1997, right before Asian crises poped up.... Ended in meedle of last year, right before markets started to rally all over the place....
Here in colores you got a very little of my selling mood, cause I did not know the site before may 2002, but you had some of that show here too, cause when I first came in here, I had just left <monkey> land and was a god dam seller of Brazil untill it touched 53 for the second time in Cbonds....
Go back to may 2002 historical postings in the colores and see what I was telling you with CBonds at 74, right before it dived down to 50....
Believe me, if you are not in cash and <only in cash> You do not want to see me in that mood again...
09-26-03
wally:
<advice>don't
ask
for
prices
as long
as you
keep on
wasting space!
:~((
09-26-03
Advice55:
And Glutt, Just one more thing, believe me:<you do not want to see me on the sell side at this point>
Do not wish to see this, cause when it happens again, you better be in Cash, and <only cash>.... There are a lot of guys in the net and in the market that will just start to have bad dreams and trikle if I start to spread selling calls around....
Believe me: <you do not want that to happen at this point>
09-26-03
ozymiani:
<Advice55: I might have just got tired of all that selling mood you know glutt?>: best joke of the year. WHEN, exactly, have you ever been in a <selling mood>, advice55?
09-26-03
Advice55:
I might have just got tired of all that selling mood you know glutt?Tired of making money on the sell side after 4 years...
But I realy do not feal not even close to being tired of making money in the buy side after 12 months...
I might be just another crazy perfect contrarian indicator from this point on, but certanly I have not been unitll this point...
One thing I know, I learned that in this game you should respect the opinion of others and try to learn with them, specially the ones trading on the other side of your trade....
Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies even closer <Sun Tzu>
09-26-03
Advice55:
Actualy I had a very good night of sleep Glutt, just got up, still in my pijamas, as it looks rainy and cold outside, I might just stay in my pijamas for a some hours more...But you still have to understand the difference between <buy> and Hold, I am affraid....
And you can ask fox if you wish put my name since 1998 untill last year when I use to work in <monkey> land was ZÉ VENDINHA! I was a seller of any rebound for 4 years in a row...
09-26-03
Glutt:
ah, here is our advice911... he does not sleep, he does not eat, he does not sell, he only buys Brazil … this is true patriot of Samba land. Anyone to sell Brazil to Advice???? 150??? Pay on, 200??? Pay on….
09-26-03
Glutt:
wally <"What Lula clearly said and that made me very proud of my president is that, in October, <<<there is going to be an agreement consistent with what Argentina got, or there isn't going to be a deal with the fund>>>," Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa told reporters, quoting Lula.> whatever Lula told on sidelines of the Assembly this Argentino behaved themselves as low profile bustards… I also think and can imagine this talk was a bit different to the extent that Lula simply wanted to be sympathetic to these LadroMorons… but it seems Argentinos deserve little respect.. BRING IN MY LAWYERS !!!
09-26-03
Glutt:
<how do you rate this <glut>?> AH... appears THAT WAS A SCREENSAVER !!!
09-26-03
Advice55:
<right, sell it to advice, he is always buying...>Glutt, I´ve been on the buy side for only 12 months now....
Before that I was a god dam good seller of Brazil all the way down...
Sorry you did not listen to my advice and loaded up at 50! Got to reeky nervous thinking default was near the corner....
No one is perfect you know? And you my friend, should realy try to understand the difference between <buying> and <Holding>...
I do not need to buy, I already bought, 12 months ago....
In the end of the day, I might agree with Alex by the way....
No upside?
That is what we are going to see....
Let us try again:
Good Morning!
09-26-03
wally:
<Lula did it very well in his first year, now we need to know if this was true picture or screensaver…> how do you rate this <glut>?<NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Wednesday congratulated Argentina's Nestor Kirchner on striking a hard bargain with the IMF, saying Brazil wanted a similar deal when it renews a 2002 agreement, Argentine officials said.
Meeting on the sidelines of the U.N.'s General Assembly, Lula told Kirchner that Argentina's deal with the IMF was "extraordinary" and that it would be a blueprint for Brazil's own talks with the IMF."What Lula clearly said and that made me very proud of my president is that, in October, <<<there is going to be an agreement consistent with what Argentina got, or there isn't going to be a deal with the fund>>>," Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa told reporters, quoting Lula.>
09-26-03
wally:
<Ah…-replies God – that was a screensaver> hahahahahaha!
09-26-03
danni:
GLUTT that is A good one .
09-26-03
danni:
And once again I am completely different of the opinion that Turkey is more important for the USA than Brazil. I think that Brazil today is the most important nation economically to the American because of the trade agreement, and the only way America can still have the power, over China in the coming decade is by having the American trade which includes the Latin American .
09-26-03
danni:
PILLZ: Danny, time to sell Brazil, at 11 YTM, where is the upside ??...upside if one look @ ust 10y & ust 30y. PILLY you might laugh, but for the wrong reasons, I have been using Israeli electricity bond prices as indication for my Bra ,Ven, uru, ecu.
09-26-03
Glutt:
Danni, i am not good in telling anecdotes in English but i will try: Bill Gates dies and appears in front of God … The God does know what to do with him so asks: Look Bill, I have no idea if I should let you to Hell or Paradise. On one hand you worked hard all your life to give people most widely used software in the world so that would qualify for Paradise. On the other hand you made so many people hate you for this same software so that would suit for Hell. As I have no clue I would let you make your choice. You will see both Paradise and Hell and then come back and tell me where you want to be. Bill goes to Paradise and sees lovely Heaven with people dressed white sitting on benches motionless singing praise to Lord. Then Bill goes to Hell and sees there a tropical beach with many topless beauties, plenty of drinks all in joyful atmosphere. He runs back to God shouting: I want to Hell, want to Hell…. So let it be – replies God… after a week God visits Bill in Hell and sees him screaming while two ugly beasts fry him on pan… Hey – Bill shouts – you showed me different Hell last time !!! Ah…-replies God – that was a screensaver
09-26-03
danni:
glutt;(you know this anecdote about Bill Gates? If no ask Pax)...???...
09-26-03
danni:
SPAL I will join you on ITWO but my greediness didn't allow me to offer more than 0.8 for 25k shares until 31/10
09-26-03
danni:
PILLZ: Danny, time to sell Brazil, at 11 YTM, where is the upside ??...PILLY my problem is that i clipclip 330k year from lula in my book lula is AAA .My prediction is right or wrong, is that by the end of 2004 lula will be upgraded to BB+/BBB-.
09-26-03
Glutt:
<danni: Lula won plaudits from Robert Rubin, chairman of the executive committee at Citigroup Inc. and a former U.S. Treasury secretary, who introduced him at the event in New York> Danni, i guess Cavallo was winning standing ovations of WS as well… I agree with you Lula did it very well in his first year, now we need to know if this was true picture or screensaver… (you know this anecdote about Bill Gates? If no ask Pax)
09-26-03
Glutt:
The thing some people refuse to understand is that Brazil apart from calming political crisis and financial crisis was lifted by BULL market of last two years… today Bull may retire for the Bear so … psychology lesson 101 says on Bull market it is not fashionable to dent possible revenue with bearish opinion, when Bear market comes it is the opposite.
09-26-03
Glutt:
Alex, honestly speaking Brazilian bonds might still advance a bit if one would believe the argument about unreasonable steepness of UST curve amidst apparently short term rates remaining unchanged for long time as evidenced by FED so long term rates might go lower particularly on low inflation reports and absent labour growth. Anyway, possible upside may not be enough to make Brazil attractive for the reasons mentioned here yesterday and days before.
09-26-03
Glutt:
for Gaucho: there is nothing like simply economy and EM economy or simply economy and Brazilian economy. For this reason usual arguments apply to Brazil same as they would apply to others, though you right, causes of concern and growth obstacles can be different in different instances and may require different solutions. In fact Brazil problem we are discussing is not growth per se but growth as a mean of servicing debt. To this extent we fail to see how Brazil low growth would help pay 10% real interest rates due… I fully agree with Amateur, Savo and others, that for Brazil to pay the bill it should bring down real interest rates so to stimulate growth amidst simultaneously reducing payable interest bill. PS: even a person like me educated by Soviet teachers has understanding of this, Mr Gaucho, whereas I thought Harvard and similar graduates got much better than my education. (do not mind me saying this as I say it without offence meant but to stimulate you go a bit away from classical bromides while I like your postings)
09-26-03
Alexander:
<<<right, sell it to advice, he is always buying... >>>in the end, we sold, then BRZ gets AAA rating and prices double...
hehehehehe
;-))))
09-26-03
Glutt:
<Alexander: <<<09-26-03 PILLZ: Danny, time to sell Brazil, at 11 YTM, where is the upside ??>>>> right !!!! was out last week...... > right, sell it to advice, he is always buying...

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