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Thursday, October 9, '03
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 | US dollar continues its plunge 10-09-03 (Yahoo) The dollar yesterday continued its slide against major foreign currencies, slipping at one point to its lowest level against the Japanese yen in three years and against the Canadian dollar in eight years
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| Dollar hits fresh lows against the euro 10-09-03 (Yahoo) The weak dollar sentiment that took the US currency lower on Monday gathered pace on Tuesday.
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| Dollar Weakens Again (No U.S. Tears Are Shed) 10-09-03 (NY Times) he dollar's fall accelerated yesterday, dropping below 110 yen, reaching an eight-year low against the Canadian dollar and slumping against the euro.
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| Job Creation Slow At Small Firms 10-09-03 (Yahoo) Steve Hauser is blunt when it comes to today's business climate.
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| U.S. Sees Gas Heating Costs Roughly at Last Years Levels 10-08-03 (NY Times) ASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - The natural gas price spikes of last winter will not be repeated in the coming months if temperatures are normal, the Energy Department predicted on Tuesday.
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| Higher Natural Gas Bills Seen This Winter 10-08-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If winter temperatures are normal this year, U.S. consumers will see natural gas bills rise 5 percent to an average $841 this winter while the cost of using heating oil will fall 8 percent to an average $927, the government said on Tuesday.
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| Feds Hoenig Sees Solid Growth Ahead 10-08-03 (Yahoo) TULSA, Okla. (Reuters) - Kansas City Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank President Thomas Hoenig said on Tuesday the U.S. economy was poised for solid expansion with low inflation through 2004, although he warned a lack of job growth posed a risk.
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| Chilean Torturer on Trial in Florida 10-09-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Oct 6 (IPS) -- A former Chilean army officer, a symbol of the brutal repression of dissent in the early years of that South American country's 1973-1990 dictatorship, is on trial in the United States, where he was granted witness protection in 1987 for cooperating in another case.
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| California recall tame compared with Venezuelas 10-08-03 (Yahoo) Caracas, Venezuela -- The political struggle to remove Venezuela's flamboyant leftist President Hugo Chavez makes California's recall election look like a simple civics lesson.
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| As It Tries to Cut Costs, Wall Street Looks to India 10-09-03 (NY Times) ANGALORE, India, Oct. 7 - Global companies have long taken advantage of India's large college-educated, low-cost work force. Now Wall Street firms, including J. P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley, are joining the chase for more highly skilled Indian labor.
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| Africas Betting Public Lures Foreign Investors 10-08-03 (NY Times) AIROBI, Kenya, Oct. 6 — The world's poorest continent has long had a gambling itch.
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| Could the Next Pope Be an African? 10-08-03 (Yahoo) NIGERIA'S newly appointed cardinal has expressed caution on the chances of a fellow African churchman succeeding the ailing John Paul II to become the Roman Catholic Church's first black pope.
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| Africas shocking lion loss 10-08-03 (BBC) Unless rural Africans benefit far more from ecotourism the "shocking" decline of the continent's remaining lions will continue, a British scientist says.
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| Alaskans Share the Oil Wealth From Fund 10-09-03 (Yahoo) ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Robert Lague fingered the price tags on the guitars in the pawn shop as he fantasized about what he will do with his check for $1,107.56 in free money.
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| U.S. Says Oil, Gas Prices to Remain High 10-08-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - World oil prices are expected to hover around $30 a barrel through the coming winter and natural gas prices will remain high, the Energy Department predicted Tuesday.
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| New Hampshire Sues Oil Firms Over MTBE Pollution 10-08-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (Reuters) - The state of New Hampshire filed a lawsuit against 22 oil companies over widespread water pollution from gasoline-additive MTBE, the state's attorney general's office said Tuesday.
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Newest messages appear on top.
10-09-03
Zephyr:
<Guano 12> we are almost due for another chat about them being called
10-09-03
carib:
Savo: now we agree....probably because we both assume 2+2=4....
10-09-03
savonarola:
carib.... you are right.... my math was wrong.. The idea is that if Guano 12 goes to par (wally laughs...) then people should be by then less concerned about downside protection and therefore the 12s should trade tighter than the 30s.. giving us a YTM pick-up if one is willing to accept a lower current yield.
10-09-03
carib:
Savo: I am not sure of your math. Now the price difference between Guano 12 and 30 is about 21 points, or 12 is 31% more expensive than 30 (that is taking 12 @ 87 and 30 @66) assuming 12 @ 100 and 30 @75, 12 would be 33% more expensive than 30...but I am not sure 75 is the price level at which the 30 YTM is @ 12,66%...
10-09-03
PILLZ:
tica, I think I have good news for you, prices bid / ask are from today <2-3MM EXIDE HOLDINGS (DM) EXDTQ 9.125% 04/15/2004 92/96.75 >
It is from MTR
Savo, your logic is for the upside potential on Guano, my logic always go where is the downside..with this in mind, I sleep better...
10-09-03
spurs:
<Go ahed, write some more about "jewish genes"... and "jewish sex genes". Fascinating. > Ozy, I think you have wilfully misunderstood, or perhaps I unwittingly wrote something offensive. I didnt mean to offend anyone. For some reason I doubt you can say the same.
Perhaps you would prefer if I discuss my Rabbi Grandfather genes, or my Jewish father's genes. Of course his genes should not be described as "Jewish". He was Jewish, not his genes. However his male Y chromosome was exactly the same as his fathers male Y and his fathers before him. After all, women dont have them, so how could it be otherwise? This was all I meant by "Jewish" Genes. Of course, my best guess is that his genetic material was actually of Khazar origin, like most if not all Ashkenazis. Which of course means that despite being brought up in an Israeli kibutz he could not really argue that his ancestors had suffered much in Titus' disperal of the Jews. After all his ancestors were almost definitely converts. If they were really a semitic people then they have a surprisingly large incidence of the gene which determines fair hair.
In case doubts linger in your mind, I do not have a problem with any of my Jewish relatives or friends. However I do have a problem with people who cant manage even a very limited display of manners. Take your persecution complex to someone who cares. Of course you are at liberty to disagree with anything I say. You are also at liberty to offend people with your characterisation of Arabs as monkeys. If you wish to be offensive I for one wont try and argue with you. I just dont share your views. Once again, forgive me if I have offended you. Shalom.
10-09-03
Cheetah:
gold down sharp lately, ust yields up ok w/ $ weekness, yahoo at 90 times earnings...brazil unable to refinance w/o dumb cheerleaders with ignorant pension fund money...recipe for nice nice correction...
went short the nasty...
10-09-03
savonarola:
carib..<This would be logical because (I suppose) you hold only Ecu 12>Yes I do...mostly. I have a small amount of the 30s though.
But the idea is the following. If Guano 12 goes to par (wally has just started to laught uncontrollably!), meaning a YTM of 12%... let's say that the 30s trade at 12.66% (just an assumption), the 30s price should be something like 75% (correct me if I am wrong), ie a 25 points price difference vs an 11 points price difference right now.
I would say that that will be the time to do the switch.
10-09-03
carib:
Gold 369 $....Goldbuuuug! what is going on?
10-09-03
leo:
ze l'eulo going to close below 1.17....
10-09-03
carib:
Savo: what you mean, I guess, is Ecu 12 going up faster than Ecu 30. This would be logical because (I suppose) you hold only Ecu 12. Amigo asked if I had a price in mind to sell Ecu 30. I answerd not really, but IF ecu 30 was to raise faster than Ecu 12, I would sell the 30 for 12. I do not think we disagree on that. As Guano improves (and IF) than the 12 should go up faster than 30...until par...and then voodoo...
10-09-03
savonarola:
carib...<If the gap between EC 30 and EC 12 was to decrease substantially, one might be better off holding only 12s. I hold both>I would like to see the opposite. Still today, Guano 12s offer a higher YTM than the 30s. Typically one sees that when investors still want to have downside protection. Eventually that should not be the case anymore. Even Bra 20s have tightenned relative to the 30s. I thik that only Guano and Veni have inverted yield curves at some point in the curve.
10-09-03
leo:
They will list gx in early 2004 so we should have the shares by that time..
10-09-03
carib:
Anybody knows what is the timetable for getting the <new GX shares> in exchange for the defaulted bonds?
10-09-03
leo:
Glutt it is not greed it's based on a 50 mio earnings in 2005, 100 in 2006 and a forward p\e of 50 at the end of 2005 that makes a capitalization of 5 bio for the new gx....and a recovery of 30 for bondholders...Life is vely vely difficult..
10-09-03
Glutt:
leo, you is, your target makes me dizzy, i thought my 12 target was enough, now you frighten me. so what should be realistic amount of greed? what is your expectation based on?
10-09-03
wally:
<carib: R$ 2,83...Wally might actually have to pay a dinner...> gladly!
10-09-03
wally:
<your usual mantra was NO schweinkram... so you converted?> that is a long story <glut> but i'll give you the gist of it. a year ago <philly> and six of the ugliest massage "ladies" came to my <shvite> in Fiji 3˝. they tied me to my bed and then <philly> threatened me that each of them would rape me twice if i still insist to follow the commandment <no schweinkram>.what alternative did i have???
10-09-03
carib:
Amigo: my average cost for Guano 30 must be 47. I am not planning to sell it, unless it goes above 70 without reasons.
Basically, I am not a trader, so I would sell only if I expected default, or dramatic price fall...or substantial overvaluation. If the gap between EC 30 and EC 12 was to decrease substantially, one might be better off holding only 12s. I hold both.
10-09-03
Cheetah:
producing large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the government's decision to emphasize light manufacturing through a free trade agreement with the U.S., instead of focusing on its comparative advantage in natural resources is allowing the commodity boom to pass by. Colombia's leverage is growing at an alarming rate, and it may find itself in a restructuring situation in two or three years-even with the referendum. We expect that Colombian bonds will underperform the market for the foreseeable future
molanus agrees with Cheetah now...
wonder why he doesn't have the GUTS to remember his ANALysis on Brazil...especially at these cheerleadered spreads and when the country is NOT GROWIng in order to save Brazil from restructuring as soon as the stupid fund managers stop throwing money at the bonds...
10-09-03
ozymiani:
<Zephyr: who probably had early-stage alzheimers disease during his last term. definitely, did you see that first debate with Mondale? he had to go off-script and looked very bad and confused. >: which is why President Mondale won so easily. Oh, my god...
10-09-03
leo:
mine is 30 glutt am I crazy?....maybe...
10-09-03
Glutt:
wally: <<what is you selling target on GX?> mine is 45.875 <glut> :~)) > you are crazy... btw, when you bought this beauty? your usual mantra was NO schweinkram... so you converted?
10-09-03
amigo latino:
<carib: Amigo: <guano 30> it depends when, in my case. (because of the step-up coupon)>I mean in the ultra short term: less than 3 months. The previous high was 68 and it immediately went down to 59 (or even lower?). .
10-09-03
carib:
Wally: Pill TOLD you about GX...did he also offer a winning lottery ticket?
10-09-03
leo:
I agree life's vely,vely difficile.....
10-09-03
carib:
R$ 2,83...Wally might actually have to pay a dinner...
10-09-03
savonarola:
<Mol-annus> on Colombia:"Urban violence escalated once again in Colombia. A bomb exploded in the
southern part of Bogota, killing six people. Federal investigators began
examining the connections between paramilitary groups and the attack. The
incident in Bogota was the second urban explosion in almost a week. Although
the attacks centered around the guerilla movements, it added to the level of
tension. Colombians are increasingly nervous about the October 25
referendum. The referendum will ask Colombians to vote on key economic and
political reforms that could stabilize the fiscal deficit. Although
Colombian bond spreads remain tight, the country is looking vulnerable.
Generous pension obligations to state workers and transfers to state and
municipal governments are consistently producing large fiscal deficits.
Furthermore, the government's decision to emphasize light manufacturing
through a free trade agreement with the U.S., instead of focusing on its
comparative advantage in natural resources is allowing the commodity boom to
pass by. Colombia's leverage is growing at an alarming rate, and it may find
itself in a restructuring situation in two or three years-even with the
referendum. We expect that Colombian bonds will underperform the market for
the foreseeable future."
10-09-03
wally:
<carib> i'd also be <mutch ritchier> if i had known the local lotterie numbers an hour in advance :~))
10-09-03
wally:
<now life is vely difficult ... ;-(> not VELY but EXTREMELY difficult!
10-09-03
carib:
Wally: it looks like you would now be <much ritchier> if GX had been your <biggest position>...but after many sleepless nights, I guess...;-))
10-09-03
PILLZ:
Schpal, vely, vely difficul, see you later, my wife take me out to my favorite shoarma-kot..
10-09-03
SPAL:
<schwein-clipper play, not more a pure-schwein play> now life is vely difficult ... ;-(
10-09-03
SPAL:
Pelegrino - I now have a stop that protects my basis on EMT - not bad. Now let's get her to $20 ...
10-09-03
PILLZ:
<...I have a great respect for you Pillz but this time my stomach tells me to wait until a 30 recovery....> Leo, I have no stomach with schtoks, only with schweinkrams..but you could be wright, GX is a big player in VOIP commodity...Schpal, a GX olay is once in a decade play, now we must try to find schweinkrams like RCN, all schweinkrams are up big way, it become a schwein-clipper play, not more a pure-schwein play
10-09-03
SPAL:
< 10-09-03 PILLZ: Schpal BF ar 26.4 , where is the gap ?? > not so much time lately to look for one ... but we will find more bounce plays ... what is the next GX BTW maestro?
10-09-03
leo:
Now the downside in gx is pretty low low pillz,we will get our schtockkss and I very much doubt that the shares will be worth less than 8.25 recovery on the bond.........going to 12 recovery in a few months and to 30 at the end of 2005.........it's nice to have different opinion for once...I have a great respect for you Pillz but this time my stomach tells me to wait until
a 30 recovery....TIME WILL TELL.
10-09-03
PILLZ:
OOoops, BVF
10-09-03
PILLZ:
Schpal BF ar 26.4 , where is the gap ??
10-09-03
drjbg:
ZEPH: << he had to go off-script and looked very bad and confused..>>Agreed. What does that say about the American electorate, that they overwhelming elected someone who was mentally impaired?
But we digress. We were talking about a different actor, Arnie, who admires Hitler because he was a "great public speaker" and "achieved great things even though he had no education" (!) Good grief. I'm seriously considering Swiss citizenship.
10-09-03
SPAL:
itwo 1.65 + 0.13
10-09-03
PILLZ:
< leo: Pill I have a big vely big position......in gx.. > C'mon Leo, at one point I had 50%/portfolio in GX, it would be nonsense not to take profit, it made me the best year I ever had in investing..all my schweinkrams are up between 100 and 300%, but I don't care to sell them as they represent below 10%/portfolio, only RCN up 100% now represent 30%/portfolio, but the downside is safe, not like GX, my next game would be to see how the new GX bonds will trade, the new 11% 3 years bonds..
10-09-03
wally:
<with 900% profit> i can tell Khun Tua Narong to install half a dozen additional cameras and microphones in your <shvite>!
10-09-03
leo:
I'm waiting 50 mio earnings togheater with a capitalization of 5bio for the new gx i.e. 30 recovery on the bonds to sell............
10-09-03
wally:
<Vaaallly, btw, you are now with 900% profit with your GX> only? my mathematic says it is <mutch> more :~))
10-09-03
leo:
Pill I have a big vely big position......in gx..
10-09-03
Zephyr:
<who probably had early-stage alzheimers disease during his last term. > definitely, did you see that first debate with Mondale? he had to go off-script and looked very bad and confused.
10-09-03
PILLZ:
< wally: <Leo the lion-hearted, good news on GX. I am still in it.> me too! > I knew it would be a mazzeldike game when it entered your acc., btw, I found a few 100K GX in my Lux acc., they are my first buys..I will sell them , the day they become schtocks..Vaaallly, btw, you are now with 900% profit with your GX Leo, one become only richier if he take a 125% profit on a big big, biggest position..
10-09-03
drjbg:
GLUTT: << then you should have been crying all those days since Ronald Reagan took the Oval Office… >> You're right. I did. RR was a disaster, who probably had early-stage alzheimers disease during his last term.
10-09-03
ozymiani:
< spurs: Ozy. Thank you for correcting me. <kohanut>. Does your response mean that you disagree with the point? Not that it matters. You are right. This is not the correct forum. > no! This IS EXACTLY the "correct" forum. Some prurient interest for judaism as a zoological curiosity plus some pseudo-science plus some comic-book knowledge of politics.... Exactly "color" stuff. Go ahed, write some more about "jewish genes"... and "jewish sex genes". Fascinating.
10-09-03
SPAL:
<10-09-03 Fox: <CU> Check the website whenever you have time:>
Thanks.
10-09-03
SPAL:
TDR 1.22 +0.16
Any colores here??
10-09-03
Fox:
<CU>
Check the website whenever you have time:http://www.ccu-sa.com/e-ccu/home.htm
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