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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, October 10, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Retail Sales Biggest Gain in 18 Months 10-10-03 (Yahoo) CHICAGO (Reuters) - Last week's blast of cool weather across the eastern United States sent shoppers scurrying to stores for scarves and coats, driving the biggest monthly sales gain in 18 months, U.S. retailers reported on Thursday.
*Jittery dollar drops again 10-10-03 (BBC) The dollar has once again fallen sharply, as investors convinced themselves that Washington was happy to allow it to weaken.
*U.S. Jobless Claims Sank to Eight-Month Low Last Week 10-10-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON -- The number of U.S. workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-month low last week, providing fresh evidence that the labor market has stopped deteriorating.
*Dollar Recovers Vs. European Currencies; Weak Vs. Yen 10-10-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK -- The dollar was recovering some ground against most of its major rivals Thursday, helped by better-than-expected weekly U.S. employment data.
*U.S. Wholesale Inventories Slipped 0.2% in August 10-10-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON -- U.S. inventories at the wholesale level fell in August as computer equipment, machinery and auto inventories declined.
*US dollar continues its plunge 10-09-03 (Yahoo) The dollar yesterday continued its slide against major foreign currencies, slipping at one point to its lowest level against the Japanese yen in three years and against the Canadian dollar in eight years
*Dollar hits fresh lows against the euro 10-09-03 (Yahoo) The weak dollar sentiment that took the US currency lower on Monday gathered pace on Tuesday.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Catholic Church Fights Chile Divorce Law 10-10-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile - The Roman Catholic Church has begun airing ads on network television against the approaching passage of a law permitting divorce in the only Western Hemisphere country where it's banned.
*Martin should pay heed to Brazil 10-10-03 (Yahoo) Which foreign leader, besides George W. Bush, does Paul Martin need to pay most attention to in the next year?
*Chilean Torturer on Trial in Florida 10-09-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Oct 6 (IPS) -- A former Chilean army officer, a symbol of the brutal repression of dissent in the early years of that South American country's 1973-1990 dictatorship, is on trial in the United States, where he was granted witness protection in 1987 for cooperating in another case.

 ASIA
*As It Tries to Cut Costs, Wall Street Looks to India 10-09-03 (NY Times) ANGALORE, India, Oct. 7 - Global companies have long taken advantage of India's large college-educated, low-cost work force. Now Wall Street firms, including J. P. Morgan, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley, are joining the chase for more highly skilled Indian labor.

 OIL PRICES
*Alaskans Share the Oil Wealth From Fund 10-09-03 (Yahoo) ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Robert Lague fingered the price tags on the guitars in the pawn shop as he fantasized about what he will do with his check for $1,107.56 in free money.
 
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10-09-03  alois25: Wally, <my interpretation is that Guano12 will be at par before Christmas> I hope you mean it. I'd be laughing my head off on christmas eve. BTW, I've got my share of Ecu12 by now. And at 84 I did not pay too much this week in Berlin, I think.

Frankly I'd be quite satisfied if guano12 hits par before new years eve... Let's not be greedy. ;-)


10-09-03  PILLZ: <QUITO (Dow Jones)--Ecuador's tax collections rose 6% to $2.213 billion between January and September from $2.091 billion in the same period of 2002, the Internal Revenue Service, or SRI, said Thursday.

In a news release, the SRI said in the first nine months of the year, collections from the value-added tax reached to $1.297 billion, up 2% from $1.277 billion a year earlier.

Income-tax collection reached $621.92 million, up 13% from $551.04 million in the same period of 2002.

The luxury tax collected between January and September amounted to $206.78 million, up 9% from $189.99 million a year ago.

Other taxes totaled $87.3 million between January and September, SRI said.

According to SRI, Ecuador's tax collections in September rose 2% to $243.59 million from $238.37 million in the same month last year.

In September, collections from the value-added tax fell 4% to $132.02 million from $137.87 million in September 2002.

Income-tax collection reached $77.31 million in September, an 8% increase from $71.69 million in the same month of 2002.

The luxury tax collected in September amounted to $23.58 million, down 0.4% from $23.68 million a year ago.

According to SRI, Ecuador's tax collections rose 15.5% to $2.709 billion in 2002 from $2.345 billion in 2001.

For 2003, the SRI hopes to collect $3.07 billion. >

See you demain , go lo Laaaaga BRX...


10-09-03  PILLZ: QUITO -- Ecuador's oil export revenues totaled $1.413 billion between January and August, a 23% increase from the $1.145 billion registered in the same period of 2002, the central bank said Tuesday.

Ecuador exported 53.24 million barrels in the first eight months of 2003, down 4% from the 55.59 million barrels shipped in the same period one year ago.

That translates into exports of 219,094 barrels a day between January and August, down from 228,765 barrels a day in the same period of 2002.

According to the central bank, the average price of crude in the eight months increased 29% to $26.54 a barrel from $20.60 a barrel in the year-ago period.


10-09-03  Fox: <Colombia> All I know about Colombia is CIB to bad I ddint buy more!!

10-09-03  PILLZ: Ecuador's government will call for bids on association contracts in state oil company Petroecuador's oil fields Shushufindi, Auca, Lago Agrio and Culebra-Yulebra, by October 24, local newspaper El Universal quoted President Lucio Gutierrez as saying.

Gutierrez made the announcement based on the recommendations of his advisory committee on oil matters (CAMP, after its Spanish initials).

CAMP, which includes the energy and finance ministers as well as the director of the Central Bank and Petroecuador's president, advises the President on oil matters and decided this week on the oil tenders schedule for the next six months.

The plan is designed to attract private investment in the country's flagging oil sector to boost falling production and bring in new technologies.

According to the timetable, the energy ministry will launch by early December tenders for blocks 20 and 29 in the Oriente basin and the second round of marginal fields.

The ministry would then call for bids on the Panacocha and ITT (Ishpingo-Tiputini-Tambococha) fields by early January, and other blocks in the southeast of the Amazon region by April.

The energy ministry called for bids on four blocks in southwest Ecuador in August after they failed to attract any bids earlier this year. Bids will now be received until November 21.

As for oil-related infrastructure, the ministry plans to call for bids on contracts to modernize its refineries and build a multipurpose pipeline to connect the Pascuales fuel terminal in Guayaquil with Machala and Cuenca in the south of Ecuador by December.

Companies including Spain's Auxiliar Pipelines, Argentine construction company Techint, and Brazilian company Odebrecht bought bid rules for the pipeline project earlier this year but it was delayed while the government sorted out its hydrocarbons policy.

The project aims to optimize fuel distribution in the area, as gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas are presently transported by road.

http://www.bnamericas.com


10-09-03  wally: <loisl <Any opinions, please?>> my interpretation is that Guano12 will be at par before Christmas :~))

10-09-03  wally: <Whatever else Arnie is, he has a kind and generous heart> i agree with that <MP> but is this enough to run a state with the problems California has? i have strong doubts but wish him all the best.

10-09-03  alois25: <En lo relacionado con los recursos destinados a recomprar la deuda externa, el BM recomienda al Gobierno hacerlo con los bonos Global 2012 al 12 por ciento...> Any opinions, please? I'm too young in the business to know enough about guanos. (I just hold their bonds, haha).

10-09-03  moneypenny: Glutty, Glutty, Glutty: <moneykopeika, you are so funny... who the heck cares about you being grope besides you & your supposed family?> What are you talking about? I was defending Arnie, not criticizing him. <Meanwhile I personally admire such people like Schwarzenegger who had skills to make success in career and business… & I hope he does it again this time in politics. As regards behaviour in youngster years, would you find anyone who would not do something in his youth he would not be ashamed in mature years?> My sentiment exactly. Anyone who associated with Arnie during those early years knew what he or she was getting into. The world of bodybuilders is not a tea-and-crumpets kind of place. Any fool should know this and if they don't, well, should be more embarassed for such naivete than whining for getting what they deserve. Agree fully with you - Arnie was a testosterone-flooded young buck when he was 28 and he just tended to do what came naturally. No one can be upset about this sort of behavior any more than anyone can be about a dog licking his private parts in public, it's just what such creatures do. More to the point, the man grew up, he grew up into a widely-admired, exitoso man who has succeeded nicely in everything he has tried, and hasn't acted like his 28-year-old self in 28 years. Here is a nice story for you and Savo about our precious Arnie:

When the Northridge Quake hit Los Angeles about ten years ago, the church where Arnie is a parishioner, St. Monica's Parish, was badly damaged by the quake. The church planned a fundraiser and the priest called Arnie up to see if he could make a donation. Arnie asked him if he could meet him in a Santa Monica cafe, and then came by himself, riding his big bicycle in. Arnie asked the priest how much he wanted. The priest said $100,000, warily. Then Arnie asked him how much the church would need totally, and the priest thought he wanted to know how much as a percent he was being asked to pay. Arnie didn't say anything, he just told the priest to have his people get in touch with Arnie's people (as they do in Lozangeles) the next morning and he would see what he could do. The priest dropped by Arnie's office himself, and lo and behold, Arnie's secretary had a check for him, for the full $3 million.

The other Arnie story I heard was that there is this one restaurant in Sacto where both the Doofus camp and the Arnie camp go meet to have lunch. Gray Doofus usually balks at the bill, saying that since he is governor, he should not have to pay. Arnie on the other hand, once didn't have enough cash on him and actually went out himself to an ATM machine in order to leave big tips for all the wait staff.

Whatever else Arnie is, he has a kind and generous heart.


10-09-03  carib: Savo: Guti must be reading Color...

10-09-03  Advice55: Advancement is represented by the forces of growth in springtime, when new plant life pushes upward through the earth's crust. The emphasis is on upward motion, from obscurity to influence, with growth fostered by adaptability and the absence of opposition. Constant, flexible growth is the key attribute of a plant pushing upwards. This reading suggests a period of promotion and prosperity in your life.

A wise person, in harmony with fate, is sensitive but determined. Make a sincere effort to apply resolute effort against the forces of inertia, and good fortune will follow. By remaining tolerant and flexible, you will be able to retain the kind of conscious innocence which fuels growth and advancement. Will power and self-control are necessary to manage this growth properly, but an inner enthusiasm for life is what nurtures it.

For today, I suggest you swap some EMT that has opened gaps to close for TCP and TNE that already closed the gaps, specially for some tcp that has good news at the corner and is more overesold on the short term... PBR and RIO are not sell any longer at these levels...


10-09-03  Advice55: TCP, Gap closed! Tomorrow looks like TCP day....

Título: Vivo espera crescimento de 24% nos clientes

A Vivo, «holding» brasileira que agrega os activos da Portugal Telecom e da Telefónica na telefonia móvel no Brasil, espera que no sector, este ano, haja um crescimento de 24% na base de clientes.

Este reforço das estimativas resultou do acréscimo das vendas de Agosto. «O sector trabalhava no início do ano com expectativa de crescimento na base de usuários de telefonia móvel em torno de 16%. O índice foi revisto para 24%», revelou Francisco Padinha, líder da Vivo, citado pelo «Estado de São Paulo».

O executivo disse que o mercado de celulares se «descolou» do restante da economia nos últimos meses. «A dúvida agora é se o crescimento é sustentável», ponderou a mesma fonte.

Investe 3,61 milhões de euros em novos «interfaces»

A Vivo vai investir 12 milhões de reais (3,61 milhões de euros) no desenvolvimento da nova plataforma gráfica para telemóveis semelhante a um microcomputador e na campanha publicitária, anunciou a empresa em conferência de imprensa, em São Paulo.

Esta nova «interface» vai tornar o uso do telemóvel mais fácil e com maior rapidez.

O objectivo da operadora é comercializar cerca de 30 mil aparelhos com este «interface» até ao final do ano.

As acções da PT [Cot] encerraram nos 7,02 euros, a subir 0,86%.

Título: Receita de dados da Vivo deve duplicar em 2003

09/10/2003

O carro-chefe da empresa é o SMS, o qual já movimenta 100 milhões de mensagens ao mês

Tatiana Americano

Durante anúncio de um novo conceito de navegação pelo celular, a operadora Vivo reforça o objetivo de incrementar a receita com áreas além da voz, que hoje representa sua principal parcela de faturamento. "Em 2003, queremos mais do que duplicar a receita de dados em relação ao último ano", revela o vice-presidente executivo de marketing e inovação da operadora móvel, Luís Avellar.

Para o executivo, o lançamento do conceito Vivo ao Vivo (leia matéria anterior) vem completar um plano de negócios da tele para crescer nessa área. "A novidade é a cereja no topo do bolo", brinca Avellar, reforçando que a facilidade da nova interface gráfica por ícones deve gerar o estímulo para o uso mais intenso dos diversos serviços online oferecidos pelas oito plataformas incorporadas à solução: MMS, vídeo, chat, portal de voz, Brew, WAP, SMS e caixa postal. O carro-chefe da operadora, que reúne 18 milhões de clientes - abrangendo 86% do território nacional -, têm sido o SMS. De acordo com Avellar, a Vivo atingiu a expressiva marca de 100 milhões de mensagens ao mês, com quase 4 milhões de usuários únicos do serviço.

"Um novo browser a cores deve alavancar mais a área de WAP, onde temos 800 mil usuários únicos mensais", completa o vice-presidente, lembrando que as apostas também se estendem ao download, onde a operadora tem mais de 50 diferentes aplicações, e ao torpedo MMS. "Nesse sentido, estamos lançando um portal multimídia", completa.

Na estratégia da Vivo, o principal movimento para impulsionar o crescimento da receita dos novos serviços virá do público jovem, o qual tem sido visto como o mercado que mais aumenta em todo o mundo e, além disso, tornou-se um caminho estratégico para pulverizar as novas tecnologias para o público adulto.

No entanto, Avellar não ignora iniciativas para alavancar novidades em outros segmentos, incluindo o mundo corporativo. "Já utilizamos um conceito parecido com o Vivo ao Vivo para as corporações com o Escritório Móvel, mas queremos customizá-las ainda mais, cliente a cliente", promete.


10-09-03  savonarola: carib... I asked you yeaterday what was more important for Guti this morning than to sign his first oil contract....

What I haven't told you is that I was at the moment with him on the other line.......-))))!!!

El Universo

Ministro anunció la concesión de pozos petroleros


En horas de la mañana de este jueves el ministro de Energía, Carlos Arboleda anunció la concesión de varios pozos petroleros, entre los que estarían algunos que están en funcionamientos como los de Sushufindi y Lago Agrio. Además que se espera que el Ecuador se convierta en exportador de derivados de crudo, gracias a la construcción de la nueva refinería.


10-09-03  Advice55: TCP came back just to close an opened gap, gap is closed now and good news are at the corner.... Lots of short sellers on this one... Probably will get hurt tomorrow....

Posted!


10-09-03  savonarola: El Comercio

Deuda. El Banco Mundial hace sugerencias para bajar el peso de la deuda externa

La recompra de los bonos es una opción

Quito.

El Banco Mundial (BM) planteó varias sugerencias al Gobierno para reducir el impacto de la deuda externa.

....

En lo relacionado con los recursos destinados a recomprar la deuda externa, <el BM recomienda al Gobierno hacerlo con los bonos Global 2012 al 12 por ciento, que en la actualidad son la parte más onerosa de la deuda.>

Esta sugerencia la hace el organismo porque establece que en el corto plazo, el pago de intereses de este tipo de papeles representa una proporción importante del servicio de la deuda. "Cada trimestre vence algún plazo del pago de los ex bonos Brady, lo que causa picos en los pagos (estos han aumentado bruscamente, por ejemplo, de 22 a 123 millones de dólares de un mes a otro)".


10-09-03  savonarola: carib....

El Universal

<Se inicia plan petrolero>


Están listas bases de los concursos. Los planes incluyen nuevas refinerías y esferas para guardar gas.

Siete días antes de que se cumplan nueve meses de mandato, el presidente de la República, coronel Lucio Gutiérrez, definió su política petrolera.

El programa de licitaciones incluye la construcción de esferas terrestres para almacenar gas licuado de petróleo, tres nuevas refinerías, ampliación de las actuales, asociación para explotación de campos y exploración en nuevas áreas.

Dentro de quince días, el Gobierno sacará a licitación los campos petroleros de Shushufindi, Auca, Lago Agrio y Culebra-Yulebra, anunció ayer Gutiérrez, en la Gobernación del Guayas.

En dos meses se realizará la licitación de los bloques 20 y 29 y la segunda ronda de los campos marginales Ocaño-Peña Blanca, Chamanga, Pacay y Puma.

También se hará la licitación para la modernización de las refinerías, el almacenamiento de gas en tierra y los poliductos de Machala, Cuenca y Pascuales.

Dentro de tres meses se hará lo mismo con los campos Panacocha e ITT y, en seis, los bloques del suroriente de la región amazónica.

El plan fue definido por el Comité Asesor en Materia Petrolera (CAMP), reunido desde el martes. El CAMP está integrado por técnicos del Banco Central, de los ministerios de Economía y Finanzas y de Energía; y por Pedro Espín, presidente de Petroecuador.


10-09-03  wally: <10-09-03 savonarola: carib.... you are right.... my math was wrong.. The idea is that if Guano 12 goes to par (wally laughs...) then people should be by then less concerned about downside protection and therefore the 12s should trade tighter than the 30s.. giving us a YTM pick-up if one is willing to accept a lower current yield.>

today in a german board somebody adviced colores should not discuss <Guano12 at par> when it reached 87.50/88.oo. my answer was "don't worry, i think "savo" it off for a few days".

<Autor: wally Datum: 09.10.2003 16:15:20

Ecuador 12 87.250 88.250 + 2.75 / 10.15 ET

<Autor: k1 Datum: 09.10.2003 15:51:59

brav ;-))) (Nur bitte jetzt nicht wieder mit dem Call@100 anfangen, sonst geht es wieder runter ;-)))


<Autor: wally Datum: 09.10.2003 16:14:40

Nur bitte jetzt nicht wieder mit dem Call@100 anfangen, sonst geht es wieder runter ;-)))

der "savo" scheint urlaub zu machen sonst haette die diskussion wahrscheinlich schon angefangen.

:~))>>>

now that we are lower

<Autor: k1 Datum: 09.10.2003 21:42:33

Bei den colores wird schon wieder heftig ECU 12 mit ECU 30 verglichen!

Ich habs’ geahnt - und "going to par" und "call" sind auch gefallen ;-))) >

http://www.bondboard.de/frames/boar...


10-09-03  Alexander: but <mieux vaut tard que jamais>

AMEN & HALLELUYAH !!!!!


10-09-03  leo: Gx plus 10% today....
http://www.debttraders.com/market_t...

10-09-03  PILLZ: <Alexander is right. You, <victorn>, etc, please talk about EM bonds. Leave biology, anthropology, religion, whatchamacallit, out of this. I give up. Seriously. > it took you one year to understand it ?, but <mieux vaut tard que jamais>

10-09-03  ozymiani: < spurs>: I thought I'd never write this, but... Alexander is right. You, <victorn>, etc, please talk about EM bonds. Leave biology, anthropology, religion, whatchamacallit, out of this. I give up. Seriously.

The "my rabbi grandfather" line was more than I can bear. If you write that "many of your friends are jews", and that you "love their sex chromosomes", I could die. Here, now. I hope I'll die laughing, but not at this age, not this way. Thanks.


10-09-03  savonarola: Zephir.. who knows? .. may be at some point investors conclude that a country running a balanced overall budget is not such a bad risk, despite the slow implementation of structural reforms. Particularly comparing it with countries like Brazil that is unable to pay more than a third of its interest bill, Colombia which continues borrowing left and right and uru which lives on an IMF lifeline.

But such is our market.


10-09-03  carib: Zeph: chatting about the Guano 12 call is a sure way to let them drop...but jokes aside, Guti would be well advised to sell some oil licenses, and use the proceeds to buy back debt at a discount. Legally, they are supposed to retire Ecu 12 starting in 2006 anyway...


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