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Emerging Markets |
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Wednesday, October 22, '03
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Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar
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 | Study: Factory Employment Falling World-Wide 10-22-03 (Yahoo) The U.S. manufacturing sector has gone through 38 grueling months of declining employment, but a new report shows that factory-job woes aren't just an American problem. From Brazil to Russia and yes, even to China, manufacturing jobs are disappearing around the globe.
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| Fast GDP Wont End Big Deficit 10-22-03 (Yahoo) Business seems to be getting better on Wall Street and even on Main Street. But will that ease federal and state budget deficits?
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| Analysts: Politics Wont Sway Fed in Election Year 10-22-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve (news - web sites) won't feel constrained by the upcoming presidential election next year if it believes higher interest rates are needed, but the economy is a long way yet from warranting a rate hike, analysts said.
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| U.S. Commerce Secretary Calm on Deficit 10-22-03 (Yahoo) BRUSSELS (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Secretary Don Evans played down any worries over a burgeoning budget deficit on Friday, saying higher spending was sometimes justified, especially as the United States ran major military operations.
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| What Alabamas Low-Tax Mania Can Teach the Rest of the Country 10-21-03 (NY Times) The budget ax is swinging in Alabama, and the carnage is piling up. A hundred and fifty fewer low-income AIDS patients will receive life-saving medicines from the state.
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| Not So Quiet on Tech Job Front 10-21-03 (Yahoo) SAN FRANCISCO -- Tech job postings on two popular online employment sites have increased sharply, a sign that the long moribund job market may finally be turning around.
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| US economic barometer slips in September 10-21-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (AFP) - A barometer of US economic prospects dipped in September for the first time in five months, defying gathering signs of a sharp economic rebound, the Conference Board (news - web sites) said.
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| U.S. Oil Co. Goes on Trial in Ecuador 10-22-03 (Yahoo) LAGO AGRIO, Ecuador - A decade after Texaco pulled out of the Amazon jungle, the U.S. petroleum giant went on trial Tuesday in a lawsuit filed on behalf of 30,000 poor Ecuadoreans who say the company's 20 years of drilling poisoned their homeland.
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| Argentine stocks hit all time high 10-22-03 (BBC) The leading stock market index in Argentina has hit its highest ever level since opening for business in 1986.
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| China Launches Satellite Developed with Brazil 10-22-03 (Yahoo) BEIJING (Reuters) - Less than a week after putting its first man into space, China launched a satellite on Tuesday jointly developed with Brazil to study the Earth's surface, the official Xinhua news agency said.
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| Brazils Space Dreams Are Now in Limbo 10-21-03 (Yahoo) ALCANTARA, Brazil - Ever since John F. Kennedy promised in 1961 to put an American on the moon, Brazil has labored to join the elite club of nations that have mastered the technology to send rockets bearing satellites hurtling into space.
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| Brazilian president signals revamp of poverty campaign 10-21-03 (Financial Times) Nearly a year after he was swept to power on pledges of radical social change, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, on Monday announced an overhaul of his poverty-eradication programme.
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| New probe into Russian oil tycoon 10-22-03 (BBC) Russian state prosecutors have said they will interrogate oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky for a second time.
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| What is the Fate of ExxonMobil Projects in Russia? 10-21-03 (Yahoo) Immediately after high-ranking officials in Russia praised ExxonMobil for investing the Russian fuel and energy sectors and the company's venture to develop the Sakhalin oil fields, the American company has faced serious problems.
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| Philippines bio-terror fear 10-21-03 (BBC) Scientists in the Philippines are examining a suspicious substance that was found along with a suspected biological weapons manual in a militant hide-out.
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| China and Japan reject Bushs currency pleas 10-21-03 (Yahoo) President Bush (news - web sites) failed in weekend jawboning sessions to persuade either China or Japan to quickly allow the value of their currencies to rise against the dollar, which would give U.S. manufacturers a boost as they try to sell their goods into Asian markets.
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| Locust outbreak threatens Africa 10-22-03 (BBC) Crops in north Africa are under threat from swarms of locusts, says the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
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| Africa childbirth deaths unacceptable 10-21-03 (BBC) African women are 175 times more likely to die in childbirth and pregnancy than Westerners, a UN report says.
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| African Women at High Risk of Childbirth Death-UN 10-21-03 (Yahoo) GENEVA (Reuters) - Sub-Saharan African women are 175 times more likely to die from complications in pregnancy and childbirth than their sisters in rich countries, three United Nations (news - web sites) agencies reported Monday.
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| Oil Firms Brave Safety Concerns in Iraq 10-22-03 (Yahoo) GENEVA - Lack of security is just one of the hurdles for foreign companies eager to explore for oil in Iraq (news - web sites).
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| Shell signs $5bn Gulf deal 10-21-03 (BBC) Anglo-Dutch energy giant Shell has signed a $5bn (£3bn) deal to build an energy plant in the Gulf state of Qatar to convert natural gas into liquid fuel.
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| Iraq urged to decide on oil policy by year-end 10-21-03 (Yahoo) Senior Iraqi oil ministry officials are pushing for Iraq (news - web sites) to decide by the end of the year, before a legitimate government comes to power, its oil policy and the legal basis for international oil company involvement in exploiting its massive oil and natural gas reserves.
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Newest messages appear on top.
10-22-03
carib:
SPAL: no problem buying some quotas of your fund...
10-22-03
carib:
Fox: S...t...I should not have sold BLX with a modest 700% profit...
10-22-03
Fox:
Got back @ 13.50
Target: 22 in 6 months
10-22-03
SPAL:
<10-22-03 savonarola: spal.. I am willing to contribute to your fund.>I am flattered Savo - sincerely! Maybe those interested can email me so that I can size the approximate interest - if sufficient maybe we'll put something together.
10-22-03
savonarola:
spal.. I am willing to contribute to your fund.
10-22-03
SPAL:
< until you launch the SPAL fund, that is...;-)) > OK - I need $5 million to make this work ... any takers ...
10-22-03
SPAL:
PETS $8.20 +0.50
Target $12 by Q1, 2004.
10-22-03
Glutt:
in the second it is not <down> but <into>...
10-22-03
Glutt:
btw, once a friend of mine told me couple of old way of expressing hard. I was laughing at large when heard… the first was: “I will screw off your head and sh---t down your neck” … the second was similar: “ I will pull off your eyes and piss down your brain”…
10-22-03
Glutt:
ah... sorry carib, now i see you meant an exchange of compliments
10-22-03
Glutt:
carib, using German for insults is even poorer than using English for this ... i would suggest Russian, Spanish or at worst Italian for insults... if you could only imagine how wide is range of insults that can be said in Russian, i have heard Spanisn is damn good for this purpose as well. hehe
10-22-03
carib:
Alex: sorry about <insults>...I mean the exchange of <compliments> between PT and others...
10-22-03
Alexander:
insults ? where ? when ?
10-22-03
carib:
Maybe we could agree on using <german> for exchanging insults...english for financial matters..
;-))
10-22-03
spurs:
<Alex, that still doesnt answer my question why you are sniffing girlie underpants :-) >The answer is clearly "because he can". I have a related story. About 15 years ago, when I was a student, one of my many disfunctional friends, started up a business selling what he advertised as "used school girl underwear". Apparently he got the idea from reading about certain vending machines in Japan. Naturally we were all scandalised but also amused and curious. I asked him were he got the underwear , and was told that he bought the underwear in Marks and Spencers (so reasonably high quality cotton). I asked him about the word "used". He explained to me that he "used" the underwear himself, and the only problem was that the underwear was too tight for his tastes, but otherwise there was no major problem. I then asked him if he felt guilty ripping his customers off. The answer was as follows.
<No, cos it is "used school girls underwear". Its just not been used by school girls. And besides, he added, if they really didnt like the product, then they could always ask for their money back>
Apparently no one ever did ask for their money back. Strange.
10-22-03
Alexander:
wrong, YOU were the LOSER who preached doom, gloom and default back in 1998 under the moniker Spanky
10-22-03
Patient-Trader:
Alex <you sound like SPANKY remember 1998> I didnt know that you were stuck on the habit already in 98. Was that before or after you started beating your cleaning lady ?
10-22-03
carib:
Fox: at what levels did you get back into BLX? any targets?
10-22-03
Glutt:
wally, WHO deleted sent and old files from Coloresmail? a pity...
10-22-03
Alexander:
heyyyyyyyyyyy, you sound like SPANKY remember 1998
10-22-03
Fox:
<Fox: do you still hold all your BLX?> I swapped my CU holdings for BLX.
I like both of them but CU looks a overextended now so Im back to BLX
10-22-03
carib:
Fox: do you still hold all your BLX?
10-22-03
Glutt:
<...they cannot jump from US$ to CHF tree...> show them banana, carib...
10-22-03
Fox:
Not bad day for BLX Carib!
10-22-03
Patient-Trader:
Alex, that still doesnt answer my question why you are sniffing girlie underpants :-)
10-22-03
spurs:
It seems you should thank Ford and Moodys for the appreciation in the price of USG debt. Apparently some folk have started questioning Fords credit worthiness again (I can only smile when I hear this rubbish). Funny thing is (just as with EM debt) they didnt want it at 700 over, but now its 200 or so over, they were desperate for it, right up until someone reminds them that the business is crap.
10-22-03
Alexander:
P-T, you can get help
http://www.alcoholics-anonymous.org/
10-22-03
carib:
Tomorrow Prov BA is supposed to repay "sea-urchins"...which they obviously will not. I was unable to find out if they will continue trading on swiss exchange..CSFB asked for continued trading, but I do not know the answer yet. In the meantime, "mandrills" are unable to take advantage of the 20% arbitrage opportunity...they cannot jump from US$ to CHF tree...
10-22-03
Patient-Trader:
Alex, лªÍøϤÄᣱ£°Ô£²£²Èյ磨¼ÇÕßÃ×Á¢¹« ³Âº×¸ß£©Öйú¹ú¼ÒÖ÷ϯºú½õÌΣ²£²ÈÕÉÏÎçµÖ´ï°Ä´óÀûÑǵÄϤÄá,¿ªÊ¼¶Ô°Ä´óÀûÑǽøÐйúÊ·ÃÎÊ¡£
10-22-03
Glutt:
wally: <UST yields down,> correct <<mandrills> sell EM bonds> they seems to be out of mind.
10-22-03
wally:
UST yields down, <mandrills> sell EM bonds and apocalyptic UST horsemen galloping aimless around :~))
10-22-03
leo:
..esatto...
10-22-03
carib:
Alex: I take it easy...this is a free forum...you can post in any language you like...and so can anybody else ;-))
10-22-03
Advice55:
Before I go, would like to thank cheetah again, for using me as a contrarian indicator.... Thanks Cheet, it has been my pleasure....Sell more Brazil, cause I think it is a buy dip, any dip you find....
10-22-03
Advice55:
What a raaly in USTreasuries fellas, I told you to go back to bonds in USA and that the curve would flatten, curve will flatten more, yileds going down more.... Bovespa will fly again after the copom, Brazilians are selling thinking that will find a lot more sellers if copom reduces only 1%, but 1% is the best decision today for the market and this will be clear, tomorrow....Got to go, see yaaa
10-22-03
Alexander:
<<<war auch hoechste zeit! >>>aber echt, Mann
oye Carib, if I have things to tell to Prof.W in Djerman I will do so....
Italiano postings wouldn't disturb me, I understand 80%
take it easy, amico ;-))))))
10-22-03
Advice55:
<And then you and Pelegrino can buy a 2nd computer so you don't have to share anymore.> Last time I saw Pelegrino face to face, was one year ago....You do believe in any shit you are told, don´t you?
10-22-03
Zephyr:
What is the current price of APP China?
10-22-03
carib:
Savo: maybe we should start posting in Italian, to counter Wally/Alex...
I have no info on APP prices, but I guess around 3.
10-22-03
wally:
<so manches braucht wahrscheinlich ne Preiskorrektur nach der Schwerkrafttheorie ;-)))> war auch hoechste zeit!
10-22-03
Alexander:
<<<10-22-03 wally: obviously October is not yet <Ober> :~))) >>>so manches braucht wahrscheinlich ne Preiskorrektur nach der Schwerkrafttheorie ;-)))
10-22-03
Zephyr:
<Advice: if your calls are <90% right> and you invest the same % on each call, statistically, after five years you are a dollar billionnaire. Congrats. > And then you and Pelegrino can buy a 2nd computer so you don't have to share anymore.
10-22-03
savonarola:
carib..I lost track of APP prices..where are the 01s, 02s and 05s?
10-22-03
Advice55:
Brazilians selling stocks on the day of the copom announcment with US yields going down.... They lost the rally and are trying to gt a good dip, to buy it, but there are no sellers down, and tomorrow it will be even more difficult to find sellers on the down side....Think Brazilians will get all messed up in a couple of minutes.....
10-22-03
Advice55:
<after five years you are a dollar billionnaire>It will take me more than 5 years carib, but I will get there...
10-22-03
Fox:
<... I think our theory about the Ladronia delta-hedge is real!> Ha,ha,ha...!!! Yeah in a day the imbecile of K wants to hang all the electricity companies!!! ;-))
10-22-03
carib:
Savo: to my knowledge there is no APP holding restructuring offer...before they make the indonesian subs restructuring. Indo subs quote about 12 times the price of APP holding, to give you "color"...
10-22-03
carib:
SPAL; your comments are highly appreciated...but following your footsteps at the same speed is not easy...until you launch the SPAL fund, that is...;-))
10-22-03
wally:
obviously October is not yet <Ober> :~)))
10-22-03
Alexander:
<<<10-22-03 wally: you could be right <hann> with <idiotic actor>. on the other hand Abu Sayyaf below 105 is a clear buy for me. presently i don't own any. >>>mir könne doch abwadde, da läuft nix weg
10-22-03
savonarola:
<Mol-annus>I hope he gets one right.
""""
Unfortunately, the situation in Colombia is dangerous. The fiscal deficit
will exceed 4.2% of GDP in 2003, despite a 4.2% y/y GDP expansion in the
first semester. Colombia's current account deficit will be 4.9% of GDP this
year. Colombia's public sector debt to GDP ratio is more than 50%, and
continues to expand at a rapid pace. Colombia's external debt should reach
an unsustainable level within 2 or 3 years. The fiscal accounts are a
disaster, given the constitutionally mandated transfers to local and
municipal governments, as well as generous pension benefits for state
workers. Colombia's central government collects 14.8% of GDP in revenues and
spends 21.2% of GDP. Revenues from the state-owned companies, particularly
Ecopetrol, are the only reason why Colombia's fiscal deficit is not larger.
The referendum was supposed to address some of the fiscal problems. It
allows the government to freeze public sector wages and reduce congressional
expenditures. The Uribe Administration expects savings from the referendum
of 0.7% of GDP in 2003 and 1.2% of GDP in 2004. President Uribe warned
Colombians last week that they would be in a similar situation to Argentina
if the referendum was not approved. However, he did not tell them that they
would be in the same situation, regardless if the referendum passed In other
words, the die in Colombia was cast when President Uribe wasted his first
year in office and did not frontally address the country's structural flaws.
The referendum buys time for the President to finish his term in office, but
a restructuring of Colombia's external debt is in the cards. However, it is
not reflected in the bond prices.
Moreover, the outlook for the referendum does not look good. The Colombian
electorate's heart is not in it. The Uribe Administration did an extremely
poor job of selling the referendum. Perhaps, it was tough for them to paint
an overly dire picture at a moment when the Colombian economy was showing
the first signs of life in almost a decade. The latest headlines say it all.
Colombia's industrial production rose 5.2% y/y in July. Building permits
soared 41% y/y in July. The urban unemployment fell to 17.1% in August, from
18.1% a year ago. Exports gained 15.7% y/y in August, due to the government'
s trade initiatives with the U.S. Government forces recently killed Edgar
Navarro, one of the senior members of the FARC. It is little wonder why
President Uribe's popularity is 75%. It is also little wonder why the
government find itself unable to scare Colombians into voting for the
referendum. The polling data produced by Semana and RCN Radio showed that
there was a steady decline in the number of Colombians intending to vote in
the referendum. The referendum needs 6.3 million votes in order to be
approved. A year ago, the polling data showed that 10 million Colombians
would probably vote in the referendum, and 6.9 million would definitely
vote. The September data showed that 7.6 million would probably vote, and
5.6 million would definitely vote. The latest data showed that 6.3 million
would probably vote, and 4.9 million would definitely vote. That is to say,
that the economic recovery generated a sense of political apathy, and it is
unlikely that the minimum number of voters will show up on Saturday. So,
there we have it. A little bit of air removed the sense of urgency for
reform, and Colombia will soon be on the ropes.
""""
10-22-03
SPAL:
<<10-22-03 carib: SPAL: basically, I am just a clipper> ... I follow you, the reason I try to give "color" to the "micro-stock" market is that besides the quality of the "pick" per ce the timing is critical. This is because it is alway the emotional reaction around the emerging stock story that will push the price around. ITWO is/was a classic. It ran hard based on hopes that the turnaround is gaining traction [which it is - but this is still difficult to truely see behind the numbers etc.]. It ran up into the only official news which was yesterday's release. Now while the release is not so bad, the hopes and dreams out ran the reality and now they are being crushed by fear ... and then for this cycle to begin again.> In any case I understand that these play are a small part of your portfolio, but it is better, I thought to provide a fuller rationale in case anyone had taken more risk ...
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