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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, October 30, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Rich And Poor Nations See Growth, But Troubles Too 10-30-03 (Yahoo) MORELIA, Mexico (Reuters) - Finance chiefs from rich and poor nations said on Monday the world economy is back on track but warned it could not rely solely on the United States and new terror attacks could derail growth at any time.

Three Cheers for the Economy 10-30-03 (Yahoo) THESE DAYS, EACH new bit of economic data invites a flurry of scrutiny. Is the economy strengthening? Or has the tenuous recovery faltered?

U.S. Economy Grew 7.2% in 3Q, Fastest Pace in 20 Years 10-30-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy roared ahead in the third quarter, growing at its fastest pace in nearly 20 years, fueled by greater consumer and business spending.

Employment Costs Rise in Third Quarter 10-30-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment costs in the third quarter of 2003 rose on climbing health and pension benefit costs for workers, a government report said on Thursday.

Fires hammer businesses with closures, shipping woes 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Business disruptions continued in fire-struck Southern California on Wednesday amid delayed shipments, company closures and travel glitches.

Economic stars aligned 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Supercharged by tax cuts, increased consumer spending and the beginning of business reinvestment,

Capital Spending Train Is Leaving the Station 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Yes, Virginia, there is a capital- spending revival going on after all, excess capacity in the economy notwithstanding.

LATIN AMERICA

Mexico Official Urges Economic Balance 10-30-03 (Yahoo) MORELIA, Mexico - The global economy is too dependent on growth from the United States, Mexico's treasury secretary said Sunday, calling on finance officials from 20 rich and poor nations to look for a "more balanced and sustainable growth path."

Chiles Poor Are Invisible Losers in a Star Economy 10-30-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - Meulen Huencho, 33, did not share in Chile's economic boom of the 1990s, when millions of middle-class Chileans took out mortgages for the first time,

Some Argentines Who Fled Crisis Make Their Way Home 10-30-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - On Spain's beaches, he played soccer and swapped stories with fellow Argentines over herbal tea. He worked steadily as a pianist and even played in Paris on New Year's Eve.

U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Optimistic on Trade Pact 10-30-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA, Brazil (Reuters) - The U.S. ambassador to Brazil is confident the two countries will agree on an Americas-wide trade pact at a meeting in Miami next month.

ASIA

Kidnappers execute resort staff 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Five workers from a Malaysian holiday resort have been killed in the Philippines by suspected Islamist extremists who kidnapped them earlier this month, a survivor said yesterday.

US steps up rhetoric against China trade policy 10-29-03 (Yahoo) Don Evans, the US commerce secretary, on Tuesday told China it must accelerate efforts to reduce state control over its economy or face further trade disputes with the US that could result in punitive sanctions.

OIL PRICES

Shell Surrenders Oil Industry Leadership to BP 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Some industry positions appear set in stone, unaffected by the passing of the years.

The axis of oil: how a plan for the worlds biggest pipeline threatens to wreak havoc 10-29-03 (Yahoo) It is a story of empire-building, intrigue, espionage, double-dealing and arm-twisting that Rudyard Kipling would have been proud to write.

Newest messages appear on top.

10-30-03 carib: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/quotes/ag_...

10-30-03 Advice55: I heard some time ago, that the situation of US Pension funds got worst instead of better with the recent moove of the market...

Any one can confirm or not that Info?

Thanks in advance

10-30-03 Advice55: Fox, sorry but could you please post that two sites about Soybeen and comodities you have posted for carib the other day?

Lost my favorites!

Thanks in A!dvance!

10-30-03 Advice55: <Not on TEO as my size is a bit large for market. ................ today it finally did. TGS is almot imposible to trade I think if TEO can surpass the 8.00 level volume will pickup substantially then I will be able turnover as in GGAL.TGS is sort of a private equity play.>

Interesting Fox! Do you think Argy stocks can trade up, with rates rising in USA?

10-30-03 PILLZ: even my beloved Guano 30 go down below 14% YTM, diff. times..

10-30-03 Advice55: <I get your point... you lost faith in Lula>

Never had Savito, just thought <the squeed> was wrongly priced! Think it is fearly priced, maybe overpriced now given what I think will happen when rates in USA pop up again.... And there is this thing about Brazil, that when people start looking only to the rate, you go back and trade dolar price, above all you already have told us before...

10-30-03 Glutt: good night chaps

10-30-03 Fox: <ok, but do you ever sell for a change? Even just to trade a little...> Not on TEO as my size is a bit large for market. But Im been seeling GGAL for the last 3 days, tell you the truth felt a bit uncomfortable as it wouldnt stop raising but today it finally did.

TGS is almot imposible to trade I think if TEO can surpass the 8.00 level volume will pickup substantially then I will be able turnover as in GGAL.

TGS is sort of a private equity play.

10-30-03 savonarola: advice..ok.. I get your point... you lost faith in Lula. You think the guy is not delivering.

Then we agree.. I have been saying that all way long. I always said that Brazil for me is a trade. That I wanted Brazil to go up so that I could sell it, while I want Guano to go down so that I can continue buying it for the next 9 years. I can perfectly live without Brazil in my portfolio. I don't like promises when bonds trade at 11% and lower.

I am thinking tonight whether I am going to hit the first f**cking bid that I find tomorrow.... I hate the shit.. and now I am alone holding it.. without any interest to read anything about Lula or Palocci, or Folha.. or read in portuguese, or read the usual daily anals bullshit about the IPC, the IPC-G, the IPC-G-hehe and the other 100 IPCs that the Brazilians calculate to complicate other people's lifes. Or about the fiscal deficit, the nominal deficit, the financial deficit, the consolidated deficit, etc... or surplus or whatever, which nobody has a clue what they mean!

AAAAADDDDVVVVVIIIIIIIIICCCCCEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10-30-03 Fox: <PS: I was resisting since morning to post this but finally this means nothing for me so why not to entertain you.> Cool!

10-30-03 Advice55: But Savo, as you maid a confession down there, I have to make one too, I almost sold everything that day you sold 75%, but I decided only to sell calls cause I thought we would have one or two more waves up untill year end.... But than I had a panic attack, cause you did not buy back....

Today, no panic attack for me, will go out for deaner with wife and friends, sorry for the sudden changes savo, but once I got a little bear, it looks like I, and You, and cheetah were f---ing right, different timings although!

By the way Cheetah, that gap of today in TEO is strong man, very strong, that one will probably close.....

10-30-03 panasonic: STD wrong results, imagine all those innocent husbands & wives trying to justify something they didnt do...life is so difficult.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

10-30-03 Glutt: carib, YUKOS ADRs

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quo...

http://www.reuters.com/financeQuote...

YUKOS web page
http://www.yukos.com/New_IR/Stock_i...

10-30-03 Advice55: <I was down Brazil to 25% of my original holdings>

Savo, I think the expected last flow from fixed income to stocks, the expected last dollar sellers BRL buyers is about to abort, cause usa is growing faster than I thought bla, bla, bla... I am talking about fundamentals every day savo... Think Squid will be tested ahead, by international and national investors, cause nothing realy great has been done, and squeed is already screeming that all ex-presidents are the ones charged for the brasil social mess....

Savo, look at what squeed said today:

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/...

What is here trying to doo? Loose Sarney?

I do not know how squeed will deal with some stress that I see ahead for Brazil and for EM that has gone UP!

10-30-03 panasonic: <Calpine Canada, is IMOP a good schwein at 75, as you are before a market cap of 2B$ and also preffered shares..but don't put more then 5%/portfolio ..> no problem, I'll go for it...

In case of Sbarro, I'll try with less lazy broker tomorrow :-)

10-30-03 amigo latino: From the capital of DR: We do not have power supply since 7 am . Every single day, the power supply is cut off for a few hours 4-8 hrs. Today already passed 12 hrs. The govt does not have money to pay the distributors who in turn are not paying the power producers. For a new govt (if it cannot borrow money)the clear choice is : lights in DR vs paying interest on the bonds!

10-30-03 Glutt: carib, completely agree with your viewpoint. you talk investment, i talk gamble or insider (which i am not, what i told is simply my crazy idea or how i would try to arrange things if be Putin in this situation).

10-30-03 savonarola: advice..what are you talking about???

I was down Brazil to 25% of my original holdings. I stopped there because you sold me the story that things were going sufficiently good to expect more upside or at least a comfortable clipping. You were full of reasonable arguments so I bought your story. Now you tell me all has changed, without telling me exactly what. It has always been me saying that Brazil could not pay more than a third of its interest bill with its famous 4.25% primary surplus. And it was you saying that that was looking backwards and not forward.

It is normal for people working from home like we do, depending on our bets and not on a salary bonus and perks, to have panic attacks from time to time and go cash just in case.

I am unable to figure out whether your sudden bearishness is fundamental or just a panic attack that will reverse in due course. I am not blaming you, because, I too, have panic attacks sometimes, and some of our friends here live permanently in a state of panic attack holding huge amounts of unnecessary cash. Each one reacts to a 1% interest rate scenario in different ways. But we need to differentiate what is just a temporary mood from a real market call.

10-30-03 carib: Glutt: what is the ticker of Yukos ADR (assuming they trade in US)?

10-30-03 Glutt: people are concerned about possible de-privatization so a purchase by another shareholder withing Yukos comrpising of team of young talented and known to market people would be indeed good news. I am not certain how much Putin wants de-privatization, my guess he does not... so Yukos sold to the best managers of the best oil company (actually market view on Sibneft before merger) being not politisized and relatively loyal to Kremlin... ops...of course i am human and can be mistaken.

10-30-03 carib: Glutt: this is a game for insiders. When I consider a bond, I look to likelyhood of default versus yield. In this political game between oligarcs and Putin I cannot place a bet unless I am an insider, or the odds are fabulous... My last purchase of a Russian bond was a Gazprom yielding 10%, in E. After that, when yields went down, I only sold.

10-30-03 Glutt: carib, the point is not about re-entering Sibneft bonds (which I am not so enthusiastic) BUT about Yukos shares... imagine what can happen to Yukos shares in such event? i understand what i told sounds like a fairy tale from beyond reality world... still Russia proven to be strange country.

10-30-03 PILLZ: Pac-West Telecomm Announces Cash Tender Offer Thursday October 30, 4:41 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031030/...

I was working today to buy this bond at 94, and nothing was done, now they offer 90, I will tender demain 91

10-30-03 carib: Glutt: I remember when I bought Sibneft 09 at par (10,75%) you were not positive on this credit. I clipped it for less than a year, sold @116. Now I see it down to 110, and yielding a bit more than Gazprom. But is the difference in yield worth the difference in risk? The question is academic, because my last Gazprom bond expires in two months, and then I will be zero-RF.... But one could re-enter, if levels get lower...

10-30-03 Glutt: corrected <as they say in Russia: & wolves are <fed> & sheeps are safe >

10-30-03 Glutt: & do not forget, Sibneft owns already 26% of Yukos so it allows a swift transmition without much disturbance... as they say in Russia, wolves are happy & sheeps are safe

10-30-03 Advice55: US rates, specially the short end, has to ajust, FED will moove rates maybe january....IMHO

I am worried!

Wally, saying down there <potuguese> that Brazil will be the natural hedge of this market on the downside, the bonus side of colores trade this past 14/15 months!.... And meedle class is not realy buying anything with the Fixed Income money over here, market was expecting a strong fixed income fund flow to stocks, that is not happening... I think the meedle class just might not give the market this last flow again <Short time memory of big losses> and this last trade up will be ABORTED....

10-30-03 Glutt: Fox <<Buyers??> emotions aside lets touch a bit of serious business... look into my posting for panasonic, point 4) Sibneft --- after Khodor shares became frozen today Sibneft with its 26% of Yukos becomes the largest shareholder... should we assume Sibneft was sold to Khodor as the Trojan Horse we might see a surprise � Sibneft as Yukos shareholder among others enjoys the privilege of being offered Khodor shares first before shares will be tendered outside Yukos. Sibneft guys accumulated enough wealth (look how much Sibneft paid in dividends during these years and how much they earned in cash plus of 26% Yukos shares in the merger) so Sibneft is be able to pick the offer of Khodor shares (a few others can but none of them may be friendly to Putin). Sibneft always had political neutrality to Putin while Abramovich was close to Kremlin but silently cashed out and voluntarily gave up business (may be on agreement?) and with all Kremlin approvals. Sibneft team is loved by market for high professionalism so market reaction might be positive as well� so question, am I dreaming or do we already know who will replace Khodor � indeed can be surprising offer... if I am not completely out of mind on this one then we can claim Khodor as businessman is already a dead duck. PS: I was resisting since morning to post this but finally this means nothing for me so why not to entertain you.

10-30-03 SPAL: < 10-30-03 cirun: <SPAL: CTLM 5.43 +0.15 Knife caught - should come back ...> Hope you are right as I am following Your footprints. > Well I bought some more today on the dips ... the market tone for this one seems to be reconsolidating and gradually gathering strength ... we shall see.

10-30-03 PILLZ: Pana <SBARRO INC SR NT Rate 11.000 Maturity Date 09/15/2009 C 09/15/2004 @ 105.5> at max.87, is a vely liquid bond , your broker is lazy..

Calpine Canada, is IMOP a good schwein at 75, as you are before a market cap of 2B$ and also preffered shares..but don't put more then 5%/portfolio ..

Paxy, no news on GX, they are still trading between 9 and 10, depending on the day..

10-30-03 Advice55: Quinta, 30 de Outubro de 2003 [20:09:47] Mensagem n� 222485

Origem: www.projecao.com
NickName: Advice
Cadastro: 21/May/2000

Prazo: Curto Prazo

T�tulo: Eu pensei,

que na hora que come�assem a pipocar estas not�cias de melhora do n�vel de atividade aqui e l� fora, o mk ia virar comprador, mas parece que o mk ficou descolado depois de tanta baixa na bolsa e num quem nem saber e quanto mais sobe, menos quer saber.....

Ser� que num ta cheio de mk no Brasil n�o?

Ser� que este fluxo ai que tavam esperando dos fundos de renda fixa abortou, pois assim como o mk, nego viu o tamanho da venda?

Outro motivo que me fez mudar a m�o....

To achando que a classe m�dia num vai querer pagar a conta desta vez n�o e os gringos t�o no lucro forte, qualquer coisa que aconte�a a n�vel global, do Brasil se tira o bonus antes que os brasucas comecem a perceber que � venda.... Cautela, amanh� ultimo dia de outubro....

Opini�es? Maradona?

10-30-03 PILLZ: <NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The high-yield bond market closed 1/4 point to 1/2 point higher Thursday, traders said, boosted by news of strong U.S. gross domestic product growth in the third quarter.

But a big loser was Biovail Inc. (BVF), which reported disappointing third-quarter results. Its chairman and chief executive, Eugene Melnyk, later told Dow Jones Newswires that he's disappointed the company couldn't maintain a 30% growth rate during its transition into a specialty drug company.

The company's junk bond holders were also disappointed, as the debt dropped 4 points, or 4 cents on the dollar, to trade at 97.

Revlon Inc. (REV) bonds dropped 4 to 5 points after reporting "very poor" third quarter results. High-yield research firm KDP Investment Advisors changed its opinion on the senior notes to sell from buy.

"It's going through liquidity (cash) like crazy," said KDP analyst Terry Dwyer. >

Amateur, yes I was mishtoken LCI is at 90 and have a 10.5 YTM, to enter it now (I entered it at 28 and 49, if my memory is good,10 months ago), it is only to clip till maturity , as it is an illiquid bond, it was about 3 months at 79 and then went up to 90 in a few days...I am looking on a few other no-brainers, but it become diff. as the last 12 months where really crazy in schweinkram-land, but there are still some good values between 13 and 15 YTM, but vely illiquid ones..

Fox, I met Brower in NY in 1997, his partner was also Benny Steinmetz in his Hermitage fund, if I remember NAV was then at about 1B$, for a 150M$ investment, they crashed after 1998, but they did'nt sell, I was in Fleming Russia fund at that time..

Danny, your sister spoke to (Shuky) my bizz-partner in Israel.. :-)

10-30-03 panasonic: <Calpine Canada '08> is this schweinkram still acceptable at 75% or expensive? any update report available?

10-30-03 Glutt: Pax, GX 9.25-9.5 according to outdated Reuters quotes & it feels fine, i went mad and doubled at 8, now my fingers crossed, hopefully i am right about my upbeat feeling about this baby...for restructuring proposal news we both have to beg to Pillz... otherwise i will try to find out in coming days

10-30-03 panasonic: <Pillz> unable to find one single bond of Pilly's Pizza (aka Sbarro's), any idea where can I find this delicacy?

10-30-03 Advice55: <Im not finished buying>

ok, but do you ever sell for a change? Even just to trade a little...

10-30-03 Advice55: SAvo, I am going to tell you, I feal mutch more confortable on the no Brazil in portfolio side with you on the long Brazil side at this levels, than the reverse.... I just do not care if I loose 2 months of carry against a possible 10 points dive ahead...

Feal Great savo and I did not feal like that when you were liquid and I was long at this top...

10-30-03 Fox: < Advice55: Fox <TEO> was not a sell today? > Dont know if not today, tomorrow or the day after. This thing has to settle down!! Im not finished buying thei <Cucaracha>

10-30-03 Advice55: Savo, do you realy think at this point in the year, october almoust over, we are worried about one week carry? hehehe

Savo, think if you do not get out of the way <mandrills> will make your christmas very sad....1 more day at this prices, 1 more day with CBonds above 92 and than glub, glub, glub <copyright - Pelegrino>

10-30-03 Advice55: <Tell you the truth dont recall Hermitage having GKOs>

Think they did have Fox!

10-30-03 Advice55: Fox <TEO> was not a sell today?

10-30-03 Fox: <Foreign central banks buy more US agency debt-Fed Reuters, 10.30.03, 4:33 PM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency debt rose in the latest week, recouping much of the drop recorded the week before.

The Federal Reserve said on Thursday its total holdings of Treasuries and agencies for foreign central banks rose $4.31 billion to $997.56 billion as of Wednesday, Oct. 29 compared to the prior Wednesday. A year ago that figure stood at $806.83 billion.

Foreign central banks were aggressive buyers of agency debt, picking up $3.70 billion-worth over the week to a record $203.25 billion. In contrast they bought only a modest $620 million of Treasuries, taking their holdings to $794.31 billion.

The Fed also releases figures that average the daily fluctuations in custody holdings. Those showed holdings rose a more modest $0.224 billion to stand at $995.62 billion a day, with a rise in agency holdings just making up for a drop in Treasuries.

As currency intervention has taken center stage in global economic and political discussions before next year's U.S. elections, worries have run high that Asian central banks may lose their appetite for U.S. debt as the dollar weakens.

Recently, Japan has remained aggressive in its purchases of dollars to prevent yen strength that is viewed as constraining economic growth through exports.

The U.S. has stepped up pressure on Asian countries to let their currencies float more freely, which could in turn lead to less demand for Treasury and agency debt from these central banks -- and perhaps higher market interest rates here.>

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