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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, October 31, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*World Bank to approve $4bn central Asian pipeline 10-31-03 (Yahoo) The World Bank plans to recommend support for a $4bn (£2.4bn) pipeline through central Asia, according to a leaked internal report.
*Hey world, can we still play? 10-31-03 (Yahoo) Canada has lost influence, identity and the capacity to act on global issues. Let's identify the problem and devote resources to solving it, says political scientist DENIS STAIRS
*Suddenly, economy shows real verve 10-31-03 (Yahoo) Consumer spending propels biggest GDP jump in 20 years, signaling a more robust recovery.
*A boost for Bush, if new jobs follow 10-31-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON – The new gross domestic product figures are out, and here's the political bottom line: President Bush's prospects for reelection appear to be rising.
*The Bush Boomlet 10-31-03 (Yahoo) When the Department of Commerce releases third-quarter gross domestic product figures Thursday morning, it will kick off one of the best days of the Bush presidency.
*GDP data have limited effect on Wall St stocks 10-31-03 (Yahoo) Wall Street advanced modestly by mid-afternoon in a muted response to data showing the US economy grew in the third quarter at its fastest quarterly rate since 1984.
*U.S. Says China Not Manipulating Currency 10-31-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration angered lawmakers on Thursday by giving China and other trading partners a pass on whether they were manipulating currencies to gain an unfair advantage over U.S. manufacturers.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Damage Estimate in Ecuador Lawsuit Mounts to $6 Billion 10-31-03 (Yahoo) BOGOTA, Colombia — Lawyers for about 30,000 Ecuadoreans suing ChevronTexaco Corp. unveiled a new report Wednesday that dramatically upped the total bill for alleged environmental damage as a result of drilling operations to more than $6 billion.
*Mexico Official Urges Economic Balance 10-30-03 (Yahoo) MORELIA, Mexico - The global economy is too dependent on growth from the United States, Mexico's treasury secretary said Sunday, calling on finance officials from 20 rich and poor nations to look for a "more balanced and sustainable growth path."
*Chiles Poor Are Invisible Losers in a Star Economy 10-30-03 (Yahoo) SANTIAGO, Chile (Reuters) - Meulen Huencho, 33, did not share in Chile's economic boom of the 1990s, when millions of middle-class Chileans took out mortgages for the first time,
*Some Argentines Who Fled Crisis Make Their Way Home 10-30-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - On Spain's beaches, he played soccer and swapped stories with fellow Argentines over herbal tea. He worked steadily as a pianist and even played in Paris on New Year's Eve.
*U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Optimistic on Trade Pact 10-30-03 (Yahoo) BRASILIA, Brazil (Reuters) - The U.S. ambassador to Brazil is confident the two countries will agree on an Americas-wide trade pact at a meeting in Miami next month.

 RUSSIA
*Russia Seizes 61 Pct of Shares in YUKOS 10-31-03 (Yahoo) MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian authorities Thursday seized shares in the oil company YUKOS belonging to its arrested chief executive Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his allies in a dramatic escalation of an investigation into the company's affairs.

 ASIA
*China Rejects U.S. Trade Criticism 10-31-03 (Yahoo) BEIJING (Reuters) - China defended itself on Thursday against U.S. criticism it had failed to live up to its World Trade Organization (news - web sites) (WTO) commitments, saying American lawmakers should recognize the efforts it has made.
*Kidnappers execute resort staff 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Five workers from a Malaysian holiday resort have been killed in the Philippines by suspected Islamist extremists who kidnapped them earlier this month, a survivor said yesterday.

 OIL PRICES
*Shell Surrenders Oil Industry Leadership to BP 10-30-03 (Yahoo) Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Some industry positions appear set in stone, unaffected by the passing of the years.
 
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10-31-03  optimist: Prmo.. takova zhizn... tolku v moei pravote bylo bi malo.. Dazhe buduchi pravilno pozicionirovannim k rynku...

10-31-03  cirun: Now all the color is gone off Brasil I still hold CESP clipping stuff. Originally my selling target is 95. Are You effraid with this one too? Would like to hold it more thennselling. Opinions?

10-31-03  carib: Amigo: Source: www.urgente24.info
e mailed you full text

10-31-03  SPAL: <you must buy Worldcom bonds.. > OK - thanks.

10-31-03  PILLZ: < t.e. libo ty rad, libo prav. Perfect hedge.Khotya ya i sam byl rad ... seichas:) > yes, but what is <perfect hedge> ??

10-31-03  Primo: mda <byl by> nado chitat'

10-31-03  SPAL: PETS 8.45 +0.15

Everyone likes PETS ... and when it hits the AMEX ...


10-31-03  Primo: opti <ja mechtaju, chtoby imenno primo okazalsya prav.. a ne ja..> t.e. libo ty rad, libo prav. Perfect hedge.Khotya ya i sam byl rad ... seichas:)

10-31-03  PILLZ: <should colores buy MCI Group (MCWEQ.PK)> Schpal,<MCWEQ.PK> have no value other then a claim (class-action)for those shareholders that bought WCOM before the 10B$ restatement boooom, if you want to play the future MCI (WCOM post CH11) you must buy Worldcom bonds..

10-31-03  SPAL: Worldcom - MCI

Pilly / Danni - others - given the pending BK decision should colores buy MCI Group (MCWEQ.PK) - I see major volume late yesterday ...


10-31-03  amigo latino: <Richard Perle, a hawkish policy adviser whose voice is heard in the Pentagon, has called for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight industrialized countries over the arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky.>

Gameplan of the National Security Council of US?

It is hard to know who in the Kremlin works for Russia and who works forUS(directly or indirectly). It gets very hard for other countries to trust and deal with Russia.


10-31-03  SPAL: 09.13 $ 2.58 60000

Considering the float and the average volume the above block that was crossed minutes ago in the pre-market for TISA is very significant.


10-31-03  amigo latino: < Carib: source? ........De haberlo querido, también pudo haber señalado que muchos miembros de la élite política, entre ellos Kirchner, Eduardo Duhalde, Rodríguez Saá, Ramón Puerta, Carlos Menem, etc, son hombres ricos, en algunos casos muy ricos, detalle éste que les hace parecer hipócritas las frecuentes manifestaciones de solidaridad hacia los pobres que formulan los nada famélicos emisarios argentinos..............>

It is very true. Many rich politicos (generally made rich via politics, = simply robbing legally society’s resources without creating any wealth, …..and robbing from poverty programs also) in my caribbean country take up the cause of the poor in a cynical way.


10-31-03  amigo latino: America’s best investor turning against globalization in a zeal of patriotis

<Warren Buffett says that because of concern over the weakening dollar and the federal government's growing deficit, his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has for the first time made significant investments in foreign currencies.

In an essay published in the Nov. 10 issue of Fortune magazine, Buffett writes, "Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency. Since then Berkshire has made significant investments in - and today holds several currencies. . . . To hold other currencies is to believe that the dollar will decline.

"Both as an American and as an investor, I actually hope these commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire might make from currency trading would pale against the losses the company and our shareholders, in other aspects of their lives, would incur from a plunging dollar." ………

Buffett warns that the country's net worth is being transferred abroad "at an alarming rate," especially in the last five years. The U.S. annual trade deficit now exceeds 4 percent of gross domestic product, up from 1 percent in the late 1970s, he says. ...... Buffett described the country's behavior as that of an extraordinarily rich family that possess an immense farm that consumes 4 percent more than it produces, sells pieces of the farm and increases the mortgage on what it owns.

"Equally ominous, the rest of the world owns $2.5 trillion more of the U.S. than we own of other countries," he said. "Some of this $2.5 trillion is invested in claim checks - U.S. bonds, both governmental and private - and some in such assets as property and equity securities." And, Buffett writes, foreign ownership in the United States will grow at about $500 billion a year at the present level of the trade deficit. He equates that to adding 1 percentage point annually to foreigners' net ownership of the country's national wealth.

To curb the country's growing deficit problem, Buffett recommends using "Import Certificates" to U.S. exporters that are equal to the dollar amount of the exported goods. For example, for the United States to accept $1 million in imported goods, the trading country must take U.S. certificates valued at $1 million in U.S. exports. ........ The Import Certificates would not penalize certain industries or products, he said. He concedes that the certificates would increase the price on most imported and domestic goods. .... The pain of higher prices, he writes, "dims beside the pain we will eventually suffer if we drift along and trade away ever larger portions of our country's net worth."

"This plan would increase our exports and might well lead to increased overall world trade. And it would balance our books without there being a significant decline in the value of the dollar, which I believe is otherwise almost certain to occur." …..> http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_np...


10-31-03  optimist: Starina, ja mechtaju, chtoby imenno primo okazalsya prav.. a ne ja.. Dlja menja, kak upravljauschego vazhen odin fakt... Za takuju chudesnuju vozmozhnost "schekotat' nervi' nado platit'... Tolko odnim sposobom - padeniem rynka. Eto - chestno, spravedlivo.. A rech seichas o tom, chto v valuations rossiskogo rynka est ne diskont.. A chut li ne premija k drugim rynkam.. S etim budem reshitelno i besposchadno borotsya.. Ja ne meetinge c VVP ne byl ;))

10-31-03  carib: I see no Brasil <melting> yet, Advice: are you <shorting> now?

10-31-03  Primo: <na sei raz primo mozhet biti ochen dazhe prav> Glut, ya byl bullish na putine i RTS >500. va cacare ...

10-31-03  Glutt: opti, na sei raz primo mozhet biti ochen dazhe prav... hotia bi potomu chto ne mozhet odin tolko chelovek vsegda biti prav, konechno esli on ne Yosif Vissarionovich. Serjezno, ja dumaju VVP objasnil vchera spekuliantam dve veshi 1) on nameknul chto akciji Khodora smeniat vladelzia bez voini, to bish swift pass over of ownership 2) mjagko poprosil spekuljantov ne manipulirovati akcjiami Yukosa & nameknul na to chto to esli kto ne slushaet to tomu jaza otrezhut. Tak kak vse umnje, vse vsjo poniali, poetomu Yukos v plus 10 segodnia…

10-31-03  carib: Es poco probable que terminen bien las “negociaciones” que están celebrando funcionarios del gobierno de Néstor Kirchner con los representantes de centenares de miles de italianos, alemanes, japoneses y otros que vieron esfumarse sus ahorros el día en que Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, con su cara iluminada por una sonrisa maníaca, entusiasmó a los legisladores al declarar con orgullo que el país no honraría sus deudas.

Pero, por lo menos, servirán para mostrar lo ancho que es el abismo que separa lo que el jefe de los bonistas, Nicola Stock, calificó de “una mentalidad quizás un poco argentina” de las formas de pensar de los demás.

Los europeos suponen que los líderes de la clase política criolla se las han ingeniado para estafar primero a sus propios compatriotas para después ponerse a desvalijar a los giles de otros países y quisieran que les devolvieran su plata.

Por su parte, los voceros kirchnerianos dicen que los bonistas merecen estar en la vía por haber tomado en serio el verso menemista-neoliberal y que de todos modos si presionan demasiado quienes se verán perjudicados serán los argentinos más pobres, lo cual es sin duda alguna verdad.

En principio, las dos posiciones no son tan incompatibles como a primera vista parecen.

Por lo menos, no lo serían si los negociadores del gobierno reconocieran tener como rehén a la mayoría de la población que es pobre. Es que, como Stock tuvo el pésimo gusto de mencionar, todavía hay dinero más que suficiente en manos argentinas como para solucionar el problema planteado por la deuda.

De haberlo querido, también pudo haber señalado que muchos miembros de la élite política, entre ellos Kirchner, Eduardo Duhalde, Rodríguez Saá, Ramón Puerta, Carlos Menem, etc, son hombres ricos, en algunos casos muy ricos, detalle éste que les hace parecer hipócritas las frecuentes manifestaciones de solidaridad hacia los pobres que formulan los nada famélicos emisarios argentinos.


10-31-03  Primo: <fantik> nu opti - eto vremya pokazhet.

Nice weekend to all.


10-31-03  Primo: <licensii> eto seryesno parni esli oilmenam nameknut' cto ikh mozhno vsyat' za eto mesto - mogut zamochit' i putina.

U nas "nedra prinadlezhat narodu" - ottogo oilmeny pyut mnogi vodki - chtoby uspokot' nervy.

Koroche precedenta NE budet.


10-31-03  Glutt: Moneypenny, i see you in tough competition with this guy over his job… hahaha…

10-31-03  optimist: glut: mi s primo v glavnom rasxodimsya.. On pro kaki-to sale Yukosa govorit.. A ja pro to.. chto sobstvennost budet peredana, kak govoril oslik IA - bezvozmezdno.. to est darom ;))) sledovatelno.. torguemie akccii yukosa - fantiki...

10-31-03  Pips: <vsego 4 goda ostalosia> Cherez 4 goda mozhno budet referendum provesti, kak Luka v Belorussii.

10-31-03  Primo: <MP:<<<Richard Perle>>>> "Anyone who has listened to a single political speech knows that Washington, D.C., is a swampy morass controlled by pencil pushers, experts in bureaucratic intrigue. Richard Perle is one of these men." http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/n...

Good!


10-31-03  Glutt: opti, primo, klasnije kommentariji... & who konws mozhet vi pravi... ved nado zhe docheriam nasledstvo kovati a dlia etogo vsego 4 goda ostalosia... hahaha

10-31-03  Pips: opti: ili poka VVP ne udvoitsia :-)))

10-31-03  optimist: PIPs .. on navernoe skazal.. "A poka.. pust vashi licenzii u menja v seife polezhat.. Poka rynok ne vosstanovitsya" :)))

10-31-03  savonarola: wally.....<october is soon <OBER>!>

Exactly!... <mandrills> and fund managers like <Naim, Kassin and Rossi> that put their bonueses before the interest of their clients will have particular difficults covering their Guano shorts.

The news that we are receiving from Guano could not be better.

1) Inflation at an historic low of 0% (so much for the competitveness issue)

2) Tax reform going to congress the next week,

3) Use of cash reserves to buy back debt

4) The third IMF revision almost a done deal as the IMF has been instructed to avoid a Bolivia part II in Ecuador,

5) Oil closer to 30 than to the budget's 18.


10-31-03  moneypenny: We hear from Richard Perle:

<Richard Perle, a hawkish policy adviser whose voice is heard in the Pentagon, has called for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight industrialized countries over the arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky.>

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stori...

Good.


10-31-03  wally: <Fox: Trick or Treat!!!> october is soon <OBER>!

10-31-03  turtle: <Advice> What about inflow? Do you think foreingers are still buying stocks or it's been bought by locals?

10-31-03  Advice55: <It's going to open higher than yersteday's close>

Do not know that Turtle, seems like futures are trading lower, but anyway, market still above 18.000 very close to year highs! Think you will feal great after taking your profits! It was realy a nice year, today last day of october, they can hold this market one more day, but do not think they can hold it any longer!


10-31-03  turtle: <advice> It's going to open higher than yersteday's close, I'm going to sell at the opening, what do you think?

10-31-03  Advice55: <It's time to square my position in brazilian stocks>

Smart decision! Nothing goes up forever!


10-31-03  Fox: Trick or Treat!!!

10-31-03  Pips: YUKOS is up by 10%!!! I wonder what Putin told yesterday to investment community?

Maybe something like "Buy russian shares you bloody speculants if you do not want to share Khodor's fate" :-)))


10-31-03  Primo: Glut <so it might be Putin vs Exxon> i think it may be Putin with Exxon - why not. Of two evils choose the less. Why the heck US is silent. Normally they don't give up their people so easily. It is the hard fact.

<Rosneft> he-he who khows.

But tell me how on earth can you imagine a cash cow like yukos without an owner? Say, think seriously of Putin daughters - they will need a marriage portion soon.


10-31-03  nautilus: last batch in € Tur10 just gone ......(sniff..) .. funny dealer bidding 108 .... couldn`t resist any more .......

10-31-03  turtle: It's time to square my position in brazilian stocks. It was a fantastic year. Sell every single one of them. I hope I can find some locals on the buy side. Any comments?

10-31-03  amigo latino: <…Argentina's Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna warned the country's bondholders off pushing the government to run higher primary surpluses in order to pay more of its debts, saying next year's target of 3% of gross domestic product was all the country could afford.

"We said: we have one single money bag to pay from and in that money bag there is 3% of our production activity which is what allows us to partially meet our obligations abroad and meet our obligations with our people and grow," Lavagna said in a television interview late Wednesday

Some creditor groups have called for Argentina to raise its primary surplus targets to allow it to come up with more money for debt payments in order to improve its offer to creditors. Lavagna angrily rejected such pressure.

"Some want a 5%, a 6% (primary surplus), some have even had the audacity of saying why not like Ecuador, which paid 10% (of its GDP). We aren't going to do this. Because if we were to (do so), we would have to lift taxes or reduce social or education spending... Those that speak of improving (the surplus) let them say the truth, they are on the side of the creditor, they aren't on the side of the Argentines," Lavagna said. The official didn't make it clear whether this meant Argentina wouldn't lift its primary surplus target above 3% of GDP in 2004 and 2005…….>wsj


10-31-03  danni: pillz;Danny, your sister spoke to (Shuky) my bizz-partner in Israel.. :-) he sipra li ,ani magia la pattia 18 nadber sm. sabat shlom

10-31-03  savonarola: Amigo... Guti is very correct...He should have bilateral talks with the governments and multilateral agencies that represent them and refinance once and for all all that debt that has never been refinanced.

Bondholders who represent only one third of total Guano's debt, have done it already extending payments beyond 2012.



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