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Emerging Markets |
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Thursday, November 20, '03
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 | Greenspan Warns on Protectionism Dangers 11-20-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) on Thursday said it was "imperative" that emerging protectionism be vanquished before it hurts globalization -- key to the United States coping with record trade deficits.
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| Last Weeks Jobless Claims Fall 15,000 11-20-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON - Fewer U.S. workers filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that companies may be feeling better about the economic recovery's staying power and are slowing the pace of layoffs.
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| Hot Jobs for 2004 11-20-03 (Yahoo) You're not alone. According to a recent Monster.com survey, 82% of Americans are dissatisfied with their jobs.
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| Dollar falls to all-time euro low 11-20-03 (BBC) The US dollar has fallen to an all-time low against the euro, amid fears over trade wars and reluctance by foreigners to finance the US trade deficit.
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| Tech Employment Dips, But Rate Slowing 11-20-03 (Yahoo) SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - High-technology industries in the United States lost 540,000 jobs last year,
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| Data Underestimates New Jobless Claims 11-20-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor Department (news - web sites), at the urging of Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites),
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| Rash of incidents hit Iraqs pipeline network 11-19-03 (Yahoo) KIRKUK, Iraq (AFP) - Two northern Iraqi pipelines went ablaze in northern Iraq (news - web sites), following an explosion and a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) attack,
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| Brazil landless arrive in capital 11-20-03 (BBC) The MST has been carrying out farm invasions More than 1,000 landless peasants in Brazil have arrived in the capital to call for wide-ranging land reform.
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| Dollar Down Vs. Euro on New China Quotas 11-19-03 (Yahoo) TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar sunk to near an all-time low against the euro on Wednesday after the U.S. Commerce Department (news - web sites) raised fresh fears of protectionism by announcing new quotas on Chinese textile imports.
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| Oil Falls, Data Shows Rising Crude Stocks 11-20-03 (Yahoo) LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped off eight-month highs on Wednesday as U.S. inventory data showed a sizeable build in crude stocks and dealers took the opportunity to cash in on a surging rally the day before.
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| As winter nears, worry over energy costs 11-19-03 (Yahoo) NEW YORK – Nearly every day, giant tankers carry 8 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia to refineries around the world.
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| Inflation in Check as Energy Prices Drop 11-19-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices held steady last month as plunging energy prices offset increases in the cost of food,
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Newest messages appear on top.
11-21-03
moneypenny:
Carib: <I never said the war will be over by a specific date, just that the political impact of Nassiriya was the opposite of what one might have expected. It was sept 11 on italian flesh, and the patriotic reaction was in a way surprising, for a quite "unpatriotic" country.> I am not all that surprised - isn't it natural that anywhere in the world where a nation feels wounded, the flag comes out? Think of the widespread use of the flag in Argy and Vene amid their current crises? And neither of these are particularly 'patriotic' countries, nor do they have any history of loving their governments. When I was in Malaysia in late 1998, the one thing that jumped out at me was that everyone had a little Malaysian flag waving from their car antenna - the currency crisis was the seedbed of that flurry of patriotism. The Union Jack came out when Princess Di was laid to rest. And wounded New York after 9/11 was an ocean of flags as far as the Bronx and Queens and Jersey City, Chinatown and Little Italy and Turtle Bay, Midtown and Chelsea and the Village - an absolute ocean of stars and stripes when the pain was the greatest. People wave the flag in times of distress - even Danes and people like that.
11-21-03
moneypenny:
Vic: Were you in NYC or where?
11-21-03
moneypenny:
Carib: A good bellwether. Perhaps this can be indexed for future reference.Good luck!
11-21-03
carib:
Next week I will cross the US border. I will watch if the custom officer smiles at an italian passport of gives a hard look...
11-21-03
carib:
Vic: I never said the war will be over by a specific date, just that the political impact of Nassiriya was the opposite of what one might have expected. It was sept 11 on italian flesh, and the patriotic reaction was in a way surprising, for a quite "unpatriotic" country. Absolutely too early to say what the electoral impact might be. But italians have a long experience of facing terrorism...and against terrorism there is a wide "national consensus". Surprisingly, a mayority was against the war in april...but now a minority is in favor of leaving Iraq. Some people changed their minds...
11-21-03
victorn:
mp, good for you. we all have different experiences. i was three days in the u.s. a few weeks ago. i am glad i didn't stay there any longer as the u.s. is not what it used to be. americans don't even smile like they used to. also, as you already know, global hate towards america is at record highs right now. nothing to be proud of, for a country that used to live on its reputation.
11-21-03
moneypenny:
Vic: <carib, next election we will know for sure how strong the italian will is.>Prepare for surprises.
One thing I may add is that interest in Italy, over in GNoE, is sky-high. Italy is popular. People are drinking Italian wine with a vengeance. Many are taking Italian language - which says a lot, since this is monolingual GNoE. There is a lot of appreciation over here for Italy. Italy has long suffered a reputation as not much on military matters, but after this ordeal is over, any GNoEcci who hears a slur against Italian troops is likely to belt the slurrer. GNoE has a lot of respect for Italy these days.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, <That is in 2006> you are being optimistic, betting that the war on terrorism will be over by then.
11-20-03
carib:
Victorn. That is in 2006. In the long term....and a week is a a long time in politics, imagine 3 years. Ruspan now understood the point.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, next election we will know for sure how strong the italian will is.
11-20-03
carib:
I mean the terrorist attack against the carabinieri strenghtened the support for the thesis: "we shall not yield" rather than for the camp "take our boys home". There was a surprisingly strong "patriotic" reaction.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, <the opposite is happening> please explain.
11-20-03
carib:
In Italy the opposite is happening, strangely enough, Victorn.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, i understand. but we were not talking about you.
11-20-03
victorn:
Many in the crowd said Thursday's bombings in Istanbul, which killed more than two dozen people, strengthened their resolve to oppose U.S.-British policy in Iraq."There have been more and more bombings since the action in Iraq and more terrorism," said Mischa Gorris, a 37-year-old London lawyer. "You will never change the hearts and minds of terrorists by bombing them. This is what you will get."
11-20-03
carib:
The <long term> in question is much shorter than my current residual life expectation...in statistical terms.
11-20-03
victorn:
<in the long term> according to keynes, in the long run we are all dead.
11-20-03
victorn:
mp, ooops, i mean his name is massimo d'alema bolocco. so what is the ploblem?
11-20-03
carib:
The <third country> would buy steel from another producer (there are plenty around). If steel prices were kept artificially high for a prolonged time...steel production would become very competitive again in other places. Steel is not like oil (either you have it, or you have to buy it). price cartels, in the long term, do not work...in an open economy.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, what would happen to a third country that doesn't have the u.s. army to support its views? how would this third country react to a big rise in steel prices now that they discarded their factories?
11-20-03
victorn:
mp, his name is Massimo Bolocco. So what is the problem?
11-20-03
carib:
If Korea decides to triple steel prices,...1) they would be unable to export steel 2) they would get charged a trillion dollar of "security cost", a 50 year long service by the Us of A, I am afraid.
11-20-03
carib:
Victorn: besides, as long as there is no <free trade of tanks>, the US steelworker producing tanks will have little to fear from <trade liberalization> in general, Because the DoD will continue to buy overpriced tanks made in the USA, even if a Korean model might be cheaper...
11-20-03
moneypenny:
Vic: I think the kid was stolen or bought from someplace. It couldn't be his. And Bolocco is a lot older than she says she is. I once saw her up close.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, what happens if u.s. heavy industry is eliminated as a result of free trade, and korea & brasil reach an agreement to triple steel prices to the u.s.? what should the u.s. do now that it does not have its own factories?
11-20-03
carib:
Victorn: even classical free trader economists always made an exception for the defence sector. Modern tanks, btw are not made with ordinary steel, and are quite high tech stuff that Brasil is currently quite uncapable of producing.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, does that mean that it is ok for heavy industry in the u.s. to be eliminated in the name of free trade? what happens if there is a war and the u.s. army needs to use factories to produce tanks? since all factories have been closed down in the u.s... would the u.s. ask brasil & korea to produce such tanks for them?
11-20-03
victorn:
mp, will you be the godmother? :-)
11-20-03
carib:
Vic: It might turn out to be cheaper for the Us to pay the <middle aged US still worker>
a salary for doing some other socially useful work until retirement, rather than spending billions subsidizing uncompetitive steel producers, and propping up needlessly the cost of all steel products. In that case, <free trade> might result in <free lunch> for our <steel worker>
11-20-03
moneypenny:
Menem, is a dad again...
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/ar...
<Former president Carlos Menem and his wife Cecilia Bolocco have a new baby boy. Bolocco, a former Miss Universe and television hostess, gave birth early yesterday morning to Máximo Saúl, after a 37-week pregnancy. Menem, the flamboyant 73-year-old ex-leader of Argentina, wasted little time in suggesting Máximo might one day follow in...>
http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/De...
<The son of former Argentine president Carlos Menem and Chilean television star and former beauty queen Cecilia Bolocco was born early Wednesday morning in a private clinic of Santiago. Mr. Menem who was in his native province of La Rioja said the child was born “normally” at 04:00 hours.>
11-20-03
moneypenny:
<not Sbarro (that I actually never saw) or Pizza hut.>Ugggghhhhh! Never go to those places, Carib! You don't want to know! You mustn't know! Among the chains, Domino's is quite tolerable, however. Or one of the good California-cuisine restaurants on this coast. Pizza also is good in BsAs. No pizza for me, I must live carb-free for awhile. Sigghhhhh.
11-20-03
victorn:
carib as i said before <i am thankful that i am not a union member in the u.s. or any other industrialized nation>.
11-20-03
Amateur:
Tks. for the pxes, Carib. Pizza is on the mail... :-))))
11-20-03
carib:
Vic: 1) there is no single economic or political decision of some relevance that can be rationally supported by 100% of all people concerned... if decision X makes 99% of the people better off long term, and 1% worse off, the 1% will logically be against, but decision X will be generally beneficial for the people as a whole. 2) do the brasilian and korea steel workers and their families have different fundamental rights that the middle aged US steel worker? Do Brasil and Korea have less right to economic prosperity via hard work than any other country? Would the USA be richer or poorer if there was no free trade?
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, if you were a middle-aged steel worker in the u.s. with a family to feed (4 children) would you be in favor of free trade, thus allowing cheaper korean & brazilian steel to enter the u.s.? yes/no answer, please.
11-20-03
carib:
Vic: free trader has been ultimately good for workers, because workers are also consumers. without trade and competition, the world would be uncomparably poorer. Of course, there will always be people who would prefer to go ungry rather than eating a sandwich, as long as their neighbors go angry too and are prevented from eating a steak.
11-20-03
victorn:
advice, <What do you think colores?> i would be more than grateful if you would make my christmas dream come true. i always wanted to receive the wsj one day before everybody else. can you help me?
11-20-03
victorn:
carib <I hope somebody is listening to Greenie> i am thankful that i am not a union member in the u.s. or any other industrialized nation. free trade is not a pretty picture for those people.
11-20-03
Advice55:
I think it would be great to understand how do you think the markets in general would react to another major terrorist atack....I think liquidity will shrink, and markets will fall in gaps down, to make a new historical low in a question of 2 or 3 days.... Specially markets that are at historical highs, like Brazil, as higher the mountain, deeper the fall....
What do you think colores?
PS.: Just think we should be preparing our selfes.... Controling risk...
11-20-03
carib:
Spal: are you still in Jamaica?
11-20-03
carib:
Victorn <pizza> I could eat a slice of good, hot pizza every day, not as a main course, but just as snack. But I mean a real one, not Sbarro (that I actually never saw) or Pizza hut.
11-20-03
SPAL:
< 11-19-03 panasonic: <SPAL> CTLM losing ground, breaking resistance barrier, shall we hold? > Panas - I am not "trading" right now due to other commitments, thus I am not "calling" day-to-day movements. personally I like where I bought it and am confident that the market will come back by Jan.
11-20-03
carib:
WASHINGTON New efforts to impose trade protections may destabilize the world economy and disrupt global financial markets, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, said Thursday, two days after the Bush administration imposed new tariffs on Chinese-made goods.
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Such "clouds of emerging protectionism" are particularly harmful at a time when the United States, the world's largest economy, is running a large current-account deficit, Greenspan told a monetary conference in Washington.
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"It is imperative that creeping protectionism be thwarted and reversed," Greenspan said. "The costs of any new such protectionist initiatives, in the context of wide current account imbalances, could significantly erode the flexibility of the global economy."I hope somebody is listening to Greenie...
11-20-03
carib:
Does anybodyhave an updated figure of the size of dollar debt of brasilian banks? They have been issuing many short term bonds, during the last year, mostly with low coupons and mostly good business for the issuer, assuming they bought R$ with the proceeds...
11-20-03
victorn:
carib, so? how often do you eat pizza on average?
11-20-03
victorn:
pana, you even remember the places & countries where you've had the best pizzas... why aren't you in the pizza biz? given your passion for this food, i am certain that you could make the best pizzas in ven.
11-20-03
Advice55:
I think Terrorists are selling stocks in any strength, and a major attack is abou to happen, liquidity will dry again, and stops will fly all over the place.... Long Risk stops.... There is just to mutch risk for this market to continue going up like this, more than this little risk up there.... Rates are already at a 20 year low, if we see another melt down, cause of any reason, there is no new liquidity injection possibility and that is just reason enogh not to buy any kind of risk, and Brazil is no hedge for this kind of event, cause market gains in Brazil this year are just enormus, meaning if you loose money in some place else you can always sell your brazil to make it nill... Brazil never was and never will be a hedge for a global meltdown.... Not with Debt/GDP at 58%, very short debt maturities, lots of companies with amounting dolar debts, a lot of them without hedge to make 4% or loose 20% on the real, like if this was a good deal at this point.... Danger, I think the market is getting very dangerous for who buys risk, Brazil, stocks, any kind of risk... Who is already inside, have very tight stops and do not confuse the next Good Bye oppportunity with a good buy opportunity....IMHO Risk is expencive given what can happen ahead....
11-20-03
panasonic:
Buona cera amici!
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