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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, November 28, '03 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Upbeat data show economic strength 11-28-03 (Yahoo) The US economy continued to strengthen as it entered the final quarter of 2003 with a surge in orders for durable goods in October and a new low in claims by the unemployed.

Mugabe not invited to summit 11-27-03 (Yahoo) The Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, said yesterday that he would not issue a last-minute invitation to the Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, to attend the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.

Many U.S. workers arent celebrating 11-27-03 (Yahoo) Our position is: Economic growth has not yet trickled down enough to help many ordinary workers.

Dollar drops despite evidence of US growth 11-27-03 (Financial Times) Further evidence of strong economic growth in the US could do nothing to help the dollar yesterday as the greenback dropped sharply against its main counterparts.

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina Orders Increased Security 11-28-03 (Yahoo) BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Argentina ordered security to be stepped up near the U.S., Spanish, British and Italian embassies in Buenos Aires

Brazils economy recovering more slowly 11-28-03 (Financial Times) Brazil's economy is recovering more slowly than many economists expected, according to figures released yesterday by the IBGE, the government statistics office

ASIA

Philippine GDP grows by 4.4% in third quarter 11-28-03 (Financial Times) The Philippines' economy expanded at a better-than-expected rate in the third quarter

Action Film Star to Run in Philippines 11-27-03 (Yahoo) MANILA, Philippines - Action film star Fernando Poe Jr. announced Wednesday he will run for Philippine president in next May's election,

AFRICA

Newest messages appear on top.

11-28-03 moneypenny: Hess is good, but this detail puzzles me.

Isn't the 2-to-10 year spread the one that people watch? Correct me if I am wrong.

11-28-03 Glutt: <but i suppose that the informal fee for drunk driving should be about $200 but not 1000E.> PIPS, read what i wrote... exactly this however if you unfortunate and they sit on your tail then you will pay dare (practical expirience i know from one my chap)... of course if they see you do not look rich they will not bother with you, but if you have good car and happen to look not so poor then beware !!!

11-28-03 savonarola: leo...<IMHO 1.55 will knock out european economy>

Only if US inflation does not shoot up in the process.

If inflation in the US starts to accelerate then it will all depend on the Fed's response. If they stay pat, anything can happen to the �/$.

11-28-03 ruspan: Privet, Primo! Ya tam Opti ostavil bez prismotra na pliaze, paritsia bedniaga :-)))))

11-28-03 amigo latino: <ruspan: Hi all, I am also back from very pleasant and instructive fiji meeting��.>

I am glad you are back, hopefully rejuvenated by the famous Thai massages ( recent references: Neil Bush, and Asia Times�UN financed trips to Thai massage parlours!) :-)))

11-28-03 Primo: Zdorovo Ruspan!

11-28-03 Primo: BTW Glutt I have a pile of trafic police protocols at home - with the new rules I generally don't pay unoficially (if i can really spare 20-30 min for their writting). Not coz I have so much time but just so ... for fun (he-he).

11-28-03 leo: I hope you are jocking Ruspan I was provocative but the maximum one can expect is 1.35...IMHO 1.55 will knock out european economy and do irreparable damage to europe's economic growth.

11-28-03 Glutt: Amigo, when small bribes like 3� become a norm and almost informal law THAT makes bribes like 1000$ also seen as normal although more rare case� sorry amigo, we seem to have different understanding of corruption problem and the ways through which it comes� of course commonly the poverty is the major cause and no one denies this, so this was obvious, however it is important how establishment reacts to this problem. whenever and whether establishment brings this as a norm of life then we have problem. I also find comparisons between Russia and Austria possible if Russia has ambitions to become civilized as well, otherwise it is like admitting they are sh�t and willing to remain such for generations to come. I somehow have pride in my home country & i would think we somehow can try to cope with that although it will take decades and a lot of pain. all IMvvvHO

PS: I always thought that it is much more important how the state reacts to existence of corruption than the fact of whether corruption exists. To make secret obvious corruption exists everywhere, the only question is how widespread and what are measures to contain it.

11-28-03 ruspan: Leo:<leo: Euro above 1.2....next target what 1.55????> This is exactly the conclusion I've reached in Fiji. 1.55 during 2004.

11-28-03 Advice55: I think a good topic for us contrarians here to descuss this days is laverage. The effect of laverage in financial markets over this years. I believe laverage has broken Japan and probably is about to create deep problems for USA and for the wourld as well. The housing market booble in USA is about to go bust any way. And than comes the real down trend, the one that no ones sees at the moment cause every one is thinking how nice it is to be laveraged. I see market begginers starting to get crazy about learning how to laverage, as I saw the same ones getting crazy about how to get short back 14 months ago. But laverage is something for professionals that know how to trade on bouth sides of any market.

11-28-03 ruspan: Hi all, I am also back from very pleasant and instructive fiji meeting. Although I still don't have an idea about what's going on on the markets, spending a week with a bunch of really clever people at least made me feel as if I am starting to understand smth :-))) Big thanks to organizer and participants, it was a real pleasure.

11-28-03 Advice55: � a alavancagem que cria a volatilidade. Foi ela a respons�vel pela quebradeira do jap�o. Foi ela que criou o efeito em cadeia de quedas generalizadas nos ativos que precificam mais o risco no mundo, como as a��es e os bonus de pa�ses emergentes. Mercadinho ta alavancado outra vez, o din�mo ai n�o t� sozinho n�o, tem nego ai alavancado at� o pesco�o achando que a hora de comprar � quando a not�cia ta no jornal..... Isso � preocupante demais dada a situa��o da economia Global ai na frente. V�o ocorrer eventos ai na frente em termos de Estados Unidos e de europa e de mercado de capitais, que v�o fazer os antigos bears sentarem nas melhores cadeiras de wall street outra vez, as que ainda faltam, pois v�rias j� s�o deles. Barton Biggs deve estar preparando uma caminha doce para quem nunca viu baixa..... Aqui no Brasil, a alavancagem come�ou a ganhar fama outra vez, lembro quando alguns novatos come�aram a me perguntar como � que ficava vendido na bolsa aos 9500 pontos, pois o pelega dizia que ia a 5.500..... A alavancagem naquela �poca foi ao contr�rio, pro lado da venda, inocentes come�aram a se encantar pela venda e aprender o quanto se podia ganhar na venda depois de ja ter caido...... li��es de vida....

11-28-03 Pips: <if you are so smart please get drunk, drive near GAI posts & once they force you to take breathalyzer offer them 3$...>

Never tried that, sorry... But I suppose that the informal fee for drunk driving should be about $200 but not 1000E.

11-28-03 amigo latino: Glutt, please do not compare Austria corruption levels and 3rd wold country corruption levels. I never tried to compare the corruption levels in US(where I lived long time) with my Carib country corruption.

Also exaggerations with out a genuine purpose does not add intellectual credit to a discussion. If the sum offered as a bribe is extaordinarly high as is the case of 1000 E bribe to Moscow policeman in comparison to normal 3 E bribe), even normal noncorrupt individual may have a temptation. I have known cases of two of my countrymen(whom I met twice or thrice accidentally here) got off from criminal prosecutions in Florida when they were caught with kilos of cocaina by giving bribes of 50,000 dollars (the bribes were given one or two months after they were arrested)----I know the families of the individuals arrested and knew the agony they went through. But if they offered $1000 Instead, they would have been prosecuted for attmepting to bribe!

Last night I was about to post the cases of two 3 rd world countries : one has lots of visible petty corruption and less of top level corruption and the other has somewhat less of petty corruption and at the top there are no functioning institutions and there is no limit to the corruption or arbitrary spending of the budget. Then I started the attention to CESP. Perhaps tonight I may post the contrasting cases.

11-28-03 leo: Euro above 1.2....next target what 1.55????

11-28-03 Glutt: Amigo, as you show so much interest in bribes in general and Russian tarriffs for bribes in particular let me enlighten you.

Usual tip to road policeman would be as Pips told circa 3-5�, max 10� if policeman is too greedy� for more serious things like driving drunk you may be asked to pay 50� min or 200� max if they let you off hook easy� if they unfortunately smell you is cash fish they will take your car to police, make protocol & then you in order to escape justice will have either to pay huge money coming often above 1000$ or you should have very good connections to call big bosses in road police to close the case� if you happen to hit without serious consequences you may still escape prosecution by finding ways to bribe in amounts exceeding 1000$ for sure so you can walk away freely. In terms of other fees payable they can vary from small present to your district police inspector for small fortune to HUGE moneys coming in thousands $ if you happened to commit something what would be subject of criminal law� in Russia criminal code and skipping laws usually have their price so should Khodorkovski have agreed to some concessions he would not now sit in Matrosska & we would not be discussing Yukos affair

PS: Amigo, did it help?

11-28-03 Primo: PT-<It appears that Abramo puts pressure on Khodo> correct 100%. Abramovich is putting pressure on Khodor ass whilst Putin wringing Khodor arms and bowing him.

Glutt: Wir sind einig!

11-28-03 Glutt: Pips, if you are so smart please get drunk, drive near GAI posts & once they force you to take breathalyzer offer them 3$... wish you success in doing this because you will need it. Seriously speaking when road police would detect you is drunk in Moscow either they might you go easy by taking 100 or 200$ or they may want to push you to pay them 1000$ or even more� Pips might know that according to Russian law when they catch you driving drunk you can face imprisonment. In older times one of my friends had to leave university and make military service in order to escape the trial and jail. Most funny that all this happens no matter that you did not hit or ride over anyone.

11-28-03 Glutt: Primo: <Pips - Abromovich got 26% in the liquid company (instead of illiquid Sibneft) and is not going to terminate the deal to the extent where fines arising. Abramovich now holds a blocking stake in Yukos, the government arrested another 40%. The Yukos future is in Abramovich hands now.> congratulation boy, this is EXACTLY what I told here almost a month ago� Fox is my witness on the case

11-28-03 Advice55: Financial markets some times price things wrong because of excessive levarage adn tha excessive shorting.... Levarageing is very dangerous game.... I see some new levaragers of topish markets around.... This use to end up in sucessive indeptness and defalts....

11-28-03 Advice55: <11-28-03 Amateur: � above 1.20...> Wourld will start to get dangerous in financial terms again.... People started laveraging again....

11-28-03 Amateur: � above 1.20...

11-28-03 Amateur: The Hess argument is attractive and well written. She will be proved right eventually. But in the meantime, there is another angle:

Lehmann http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2003/1... Don't Give Up on Bonds

<... I disagree strenuously with fellow columnist Lisa Hess, who says that you should steer clear of bonds. In particular, I don't see the kind of inflationary forces on the horizon that would fuel a big rate rise. Short-term rates likely will climb a bit, but> <<<long-term rates should remain near where they are now.>>>

Who is right will depend on CPI inflation. While it stays in the 2 to 2.5% range, long term rates do not have realy much to rise. But the moment CPI jumps, or is feared to be about to jump, to the over 4% zone, fasten your seat belts...

11-28-03 Pips: amigo: <Glutt, Is 1000 E is the <normal=representative> bribe offered to moscow traffic police?>

usually we tip that noble officers by amount of 100 roubles = 3 euro.

11-28-03 amigo latino: Glutt:1000� bribe the road policemen would not only let you go but also would three times kiss your butt��.>

Glutt, Is 1000 E is the <normal=representative> bribe offered to moscow traffic police?

11-28-03 Patient-Trader: War looming between Europe and Russia - according to Russia Journal

Meanwhile, the EU is going to send troops to Moldova. According to analysts, the European Union, which has not yet 'digested' the former members of the Warsaw pact, is seeking to squeeze Russia out of the former Soviet republics. Next on the list are Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasian and Central Asian republics. This expansionist policy could result in a new military conflict between Russia and Europe. http://www.russiajournal.com/news/c...

11-28-03 Patient-Trader: Yukos. It appears that Abramo puts pressure on Khodo to get his own guys elected to the board.

11-28-03 Pips: <the government arrested another 40%> But they said that owners of this blocked lot are allowed to vote - the shares were frozen only to prevent their transfer. If that is correct then Mr. Kh. can even vote.

11-28-03 amigo latino: < Leo:
KLM\AIRFRANCE\ALITALIA wich are the biggest��.>

Is the merger already accomplished? Or will be done certainly ?.

11-28-03 Primo: Pips - Abromovich got 26% in the liquid company (instead of illiquid Sibneft) and is not going to terminate the deal to the extent where fines arising. Abramovich now holds a blocking stake in Yukos, the government arrested another 40%. The Yukos future is in Abramovich hands now.

11-28-03 Pips: Primo: <My first impression is that Abramovich has just screwed Khodor>.

How? YUKO already owns about 92% of Sinbneft(as SIBN owns 26% of YUKO). It isnt that easy to unwind these deals. Also there is an agreement of "termination fee" of $1bn if any side pulls out of the deal. Where is the profit of Abramovitz?

11-28-03 k1: leo, how about all the "big" US airlines - you thought half of them would default on their bonds ? How about Swissair, how about Sabena, how about AirCan, how about all the other "little" AirLines you name them, that defaulted?

I am certainly not saying, that KLM will default - but there is definetly a risk in it.

11-28-03 leo: K1 I really doubt that KLM\AIRFRANCE\ALITALIA wich are the biggest conglomerate in europe will default on a bond.....

11-28-03 k1: leo, thats a subordinated bond !?

11-28-03 leo: For the CHF investors.I want to show you an outstanding opportunity:you take the money from the bank at 1.25% neg rate per annum and invest at 7.37 in this outstanding and secure bond giving you 6% for free!!!!!! http://quotes.ubs.com/quotes/X0=5/X...

11-28-03 Primo: My first impression is that Abramovich has just screwed Khodor ... to say the least ... screwed like a rabbit from anecdotes who did it to the fox stuck between two birches.

11-28-03 Glutt: Primo, what is interesting is BBC wrote ''call off' which somehow is not proven while Russian sources call it a ''suspension'' but not a pull out� I simply feel confused and not know but one thing I am certain is that JournANALs became worst ever and so imbecile that they cannot differ pull out from suspension or even worse they do not want to.

11-28-03 Primo: MOSCOW, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Russia's oil firm Sibneft <SIBN.RTS> said on Friday it was temporarily suspending its merger with embattled oil major YUKOS <YUKO.RTS>.

and some more ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business...

11-28-03 Glutt: PIPS... SIBNEFT & YUKOS announced that they SUSPEND their merger... nothing like ��call off�� was mentioned. My source is www.rbc.ru and reuters...

PS: call off means simply reverse the merger... suspend means postponing due to some reasons... so lets see their reasons

11-28-03 Pips: sineft = sibneft

11-28-03 Pips: Russia's SINEFT says call off merger with YUKOS

$%#& !!!!!

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