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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, December 4, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Beware Animal Spirits 12-04-03 (NY Times) WASHINGTON — You cannot accuse The Times of throwing a wet blanket on good economic news.
*Robust rise in output fails to halt dollars slide 12-04-03 (Financial Times) US productivity grew at its fastest rate for 20 years in the third quarter, revised figures showed on Wednesday.
*Productivity Grew at Fastest Rate Since 1983 12-04-03 (Yahoo) American workers churned out goods and services in the third quarter at the strongest pace in 20 years,
*Powell in North Africa to encourage democracy, fight against terror 12-04-03 (Yahoo) MARRAKESH, Morocco (AFP) - US Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) continued a whirlwind tour of North Africa to drum up support for Washington's war on terrorism with stops in Morocco and Algeria.
*Yukos accused of not paying five bln dollars in taxes 12-03-03 (Yahoo) MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia's oil giant Yukos was accused by the tax ministry of underpaying five billion dollars in taxes over the past six years.
*World Bank Again Giving Large Loans to Indonesia 12-03-03 (NY Times) JAKARTA, Indonesia, Dec. 1 — After several years of reduced support because of government corruption,
*All I Want for Christmas Is a Job 12-03-03 (Yahoo) Being unemployed is hard anytime but never more so than during the holiday season.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Mexico Now Feels Pinch of Cheap Labor 12-04-03 (Washington Post) An Economy Built on Low Wages Finds Itself Undercut by Influx of Chinese Imports
*Brazil Mayor Bars Gays from Moving to Town 12-04-03 (Yahoo) RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (Reuters) - A Brazilian (news - web sites) mayor has issued a decree barring homosexuals from moving to his town,
*Chavez Foes Complete Recall Signature Drive in Venezuela 12-03-03 (Yahoo) CARACAS, Venezuela — Members of the political opposition claimed success Monday on the final day of an effort to gather signatures to recall President Hugo Chavez,
*Brazil hopes lavish team will boost Mideast trade 12-03-03 (Yahoo) Call it Team Brazil -- as long as Jean Chrétien hasn't registered the trademark.
*Shell director killed in Brazil 12-03-03 (Yahoo) Brazilian police admitted yesterday that they were baffled by the apparently motiveless killing of a Shell executive found battered to death in bed beside his severely injured wife.

 RUSSIA
*Move to Revive Merger of Russian Oil Companies 12-04-03 (NY Times) The major shareholders of the Russian oil companies Yukos and Sibneft have been discussing how they can keep their $13 billion merger alive,

 ASIA

 OIL PRICES
*Australia Promoting Its Natural Gas in U.S. 12-04-03 (NY Times) Geoff Gallop, the state premier of Western Australia, is visiting the United States to help ChevronTexaco sell Australia's natural gas.
*With All That Oil, Baghdad Wonders at Lengthy Gas Lines 12-04-03 (NY Times) Ask Hadi Ali, 58, a civil engineer and irate car owner. He had been waiting an hour on a recent morning to fill his gas tank by the time his car finally crept up to the pumps. The line behind him was 110 cars long.
*Saudi Arabia calls for "pro-active action" on OPEC quotas 12-04-03 (Yahoo) VIENNA (AFP) - OPEC (news - web sites) should take "pro-active action" on production quotas either at its meeting in Vienna tomorrow or before March 2004, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Nuaimi said here.
*Something Less in the Gasoline May Sting More at the Pump 12-03-03 (NY Times) Drivers in New York State and Connecticut could pay 30 to 80 cents more per gallon of gasoline after two statewide bans on a gasoline additive take effect Jan. 1,
 
Older RepliesNewer Replies Replies start here:
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12-04-03  amigo latino: <Aniruddha Bahal wins Britain's Bad Sex award

LONDON (Reuters) - An Indian investigative journalist on Wednesday won Britain's little-coveted Bad Sex in Fiction Award for a turbo-charged account of a lovers' tryst that likens their amours to a speeding Bugatti.

Aniruddha Bahal, who posed as an arms dealer to expose an Indian military bribery scandal in 2001, flew to London to receive the prize from rock singer Sting before a 500-strong audience.

Now in its 11th year, the dubious honour is awarded by the Literary Review magazine for the most inept description of sexual intercourse in a novel. …………..> http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

She may be bad in sexual intercourse decription, but she and her group(British writer Naipaum is a supporter of the group) of journalists did a superb job of videotaping some Indian BJP(ruling party) bigwigs and some mid-level Indian generals who agreed to offer military supplies contracts in exchange for bribes(bribe amounts are small compared to international levels —100,000 rupees =2000 dollars for each one ). Those involved lost their positions and are in disgrace now.


12-04-03  amigo latino: Glut, <Russian style thing> is the term used by Leo, for sending military to exchange houses and banks to ensure that they buy and sell

dollars at the price set by the government.


12-04-03  amigo latino: We are back to 10 hour power shut- offs, divided in two 5 hr sessions. All for the social benefit! I will have to buy more batteries in the weekend.

12-04-03  PILLZ: <we will have a central colores-pictures-fidji-site> with id and password, like coloresfiles... à demain..

12-04-03  PILLZ: <MERDE ALORS! > Vaaaallly, I will fix it this WE, we will have a central colores-pictures-fidji-site, now I neeeeed to Laga BRX , see you demain...

12-04-03  Pelegrino-spo: <SPAL> Thanks a lot!!! rgds.

12-04-03  SPAL: <<CTLM is probably my darkest horse right now ... my basis in this stock is around $5.25 ... over the past few days it has been acting weak and still unsettled ... it took a minor run on an investment comment from noname investment house and the last of the momentum is fading ... it should settle soon.>> just to add, unless there is a ploblem ... I trust not, but there is some debate among ANALs about the "future" of the most narrowly focussed semiconductor firms ... I like the bet, but if you want in make sure she has firmed up and keep a finger on the stop loss trigger until you get some profit on your position ...

12-04-03  wally: GOOOOOOOD MORNING <PHILLY>!

<Un problème est survenu lors de la connexion à votre album :

Soit votre dernière identification est trop ancienne. Soit la procédure d'identification a décelé une anomalie, et pour des raisons de sécurité, nous vous demandons de saisir à nouveau votre identifiant et votre mot de passe pour accéder à vos albums.>

MERDE ALORS!


12-04-03  SPAL: <12-04-03 Pelegrino-spo: SPAL, i'd like to know which schtocks have a good upside for the yearend-january>

Pelegrino - remember I am a <voodoo> dealer and so my schtock picks dodge and weave around a bit mostly before going off like pop corn ... if you have ever watched pop corn cook you'll know that there is no g/tee when individual cornels will pop, although you do know you will get popcorn ...

Firstly I am mostly a bull on the market, although we are in a "between" period in my view ... there is a slim, but possible chance that we will pull back 5-7% this means that my high beta stocks can come off a bit, although I try to buy on relative weakness ... I do however think that we can still have a 10% or so market so time through the end of Jan ...

CTLM is probably my darkest horse right now ... my basis in this stock is around $5.25 ... over the past few days it has been acting weak and still unsettled ... it took a minor run on an investment comment from noname investment house and the last of the momentum is fading ... it should settle soon. On the upside it can pop dramatically a dollar or two or more over a couple of days ... we may be close to this as it will either come out with guidance for Q4 or a major house will play the hero with an upgrade ... it is down where it is merely because of a sales channel delay in Japan. Strong restistance is close ... stop loss should be $5.15. If this one gets its mojo back then it can cruise through to $15 in 6 mths ... but first I'd like to see it at $7 ...

SBAC is finalizing a notes placement refi deal with Lehman I am expecting Lehman to come out any day and goose the stock ... I may be wrong, but if this happens it should head for $5 fairly easily. Now at resistance.

IBAS - approaching fairly well supported levels a developing story, but if Q4 meets the "insiders" expectations should go through $2.50 fairly comfortably. If we get to this point then we will be talking $5-7 by yr. end 04.

AAWH ... the purest of gambles ... completely binomial outcome ... but if the prepack BK plan confirms that the existing equity keep 20-30% of the newco equity the existing stock claims will shoot through $2 ... vely schpeculative ... if we come out of the BK in tact then this will trade like Dann's HLSH ... filing is "planned" for 12/15, but you never know.

I have others, but I am probably mid cycle on them so they don't make sense as new plays. I do however need to get back to work on the pipeline!!


12-04-03  cirun: <SPAL: circun - I'm not sure that I can explain it really ... drop by when you pass-by Miami.> Thank you for I kind invitation. that will be right before next market cycle. (Dot know really what year I will be in emerica again)

12-04-03  PILLZ: Evely day, same story

<NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The junk bond market chalked up a strong performance Thursday, with prices up a solid 1/2 to 3/4 point.

Traders said utilities were among the hottest performers, as has been the case in recent days, with Dynegy Inc.'s (DYN) 9 7/8% notes due 2010 quoted at around 111 1/2 bid, 112 1/2 offered, after trading as high as 112 bid, 133 offered. The bonds closed Wednesday at 109 1/2 bid, 110 1/2 offered.

The market is "very, very strong with better two-side flow," as opposed to one that's bid up but with no bonds offered, said Kevin McCormick, who manages high-yield bonds at Weiss Peck & Greer, with $19 billion under management, including $14.5 billion in fixed income.

In the primary market, crossover credit Georgia Pacific Corp. (GCP), rated Ba3 by Moody's Investors Service and double-B-plus by Standard & Poor's, was able to double a "drive-by" offering of 20-year senior notes to $500 million. The notes priced at par to yield 8%, a spread to Treasurys of 284 basis points.

A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.

Citibank, Deutsche Bank and UBS were joint lead underwriters on the Rule 144a private placement.

Also, Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) priced a $170 million debt offering.

Two other offerings were still expected to price late in the session from Insight Midwest and Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI)

"I have a stack of prospectuses" for new offerings, said McCormick of Weiss Peck. "It will be a busy week-and-a-half before the holidays," he predicted.

The market will be eagerly awaiting the latest information on high-yield mutual fund flows from AMG Data Services in Arcata, Calif., expected late this session.

AMG reported inflows last week of $425 million - the fourth straight week of inflows. >


12-04-03  Glutt: yeap wally, unfortunately i has attended the one which was not so successful imho ... sigh ... concerns big meetings i think it depends on location and time... on the rest i hope i can attend successful meeting next year.

12-04-03  leo: Prices of this evening DR 2013 72.75 73.75...

12-04-03  Pelegrino-spo: SPAL, i'd like to know which schtocks have a good upside for the yearend-january, in your opinion.

12-04-03  SPAL: << 12-04-03 Pelegrino-spo: <SPAL> what are your calls on US stocks (or ADRs) for this year-end-january? tnx. >> do you mean my guess of the levels of the indices or do you want to know which schtocks I hold?

12-04-03  Pelegrino-spo: <SPAL> what are your calls on US stocks (or ADRs) for this year-end-january? tnx.

12-04-03  SPAL: <<<! informed sources (top secret ones which i cannot name) >>informed me that very soon Guano12 will be bought back @ 120 and Guano30 at PAR!

:~)) >>> Best of the day!


12-04-03  SPAL: << 3) Sell when Caribinho says to. >> yes a KEY element!!

12-04-03  PILLZ: Torgay and other who have fidji photos, could we centralize all albums on this site ?? http://www.wistiti.fr/AlbumsPerso/u...

12-04-03  wally: i also remember that Ven27 was around 88 in march 1998.

12-04-03  wally: <Do you remember the maximum immediately following its 1997 issuing ? 93-94 ?>

i am not quite sure <merlino>. i only remember that i bought them at reoffer price 92.55 walking on a muddy street during a rain shower on the island Koh Samui. but i doubt that they went above 95.

what i bloody remember is that they dropped to ~38 in the wake of the russian crisis in 1998.


12-04-03  Merlino: <Wally:Ven27 will go higher (my personal opinion) whether Hugo goes or stays> I agree. In fact I was thinking that my question was just rhetoric while I was typing it.

Do you remember the maximum immediately following its 1997 issuing ? 93-94 ?


12-04-03  wally: <what about combining all of us into ever biggest Fiji next year???> i think this is hardly possible <glut>. this time we were nearly double the number than we were at Fiji 1 and it was quite an organisational problem mainly due to the different days of arrivals and departures. on the other hand i think i can speak for all participants that it was very successful.

12-04-03  wally: <vic... ask <glut> where is Fiji ... surprise surprise... hehehe> he knows because he went with <neznaika> for wine shopping around midnight when the colores were running dry :~))

12-04-03  Glutt: now there was bigger Fiji 3.5 in Thailand & smaller Fiji 1.25 in Brazil ... what about combining all of us into ever biggest Fiji next year???

12-04-03  wally: <torgay: Wally & Elgrande : How about Silvester in Antalya ?> not possible. have guests for the holidays.

12-04-03  Glutt: vic... ask wally where is Fiji ... surprise surprise... hehehe

12-04-03  wally: thanks. received the first 3 pictures <torgay>. but my connection is slow like a snail and i might download the others later.

12-04-03  roguetrader18: Petbra 18: 500 went up at 99.75; Embratel now 101.25-3/4

12-04-03  torgay: Wally you will receive 11 mails each 1.5MB size...

12-04-03  victorn: wally <<Fiji> where the first big colores meeting was held> thanks, now i understand.

12-04-03  Glutt: amigo <the govt can get the dollars without resorting to <russia style thing>> what is this Russia style thing, would you please tell me? thx

12-04-03  torgay: Wally & Elgrande : How about Silvester in Antalya ?

12-04-03  wally: <Fiji is not realy Fiji> that is correct and that is why the proper designation <Fiji 3½> should be used to differentiate from <Fiji> where the first big colores meeting was held.

12-04-03  Glutt: savo <In fact, in terms of credit ratios Veni does not even belong to the emerging markets, or at the most, it should be a borderline case like Poland, Chech, Hungary, etc.....> i agree... FUNNY is that Hungary is now under devalution pressure as it used to finance its growing twin deficits by short term speculative inflows ... so Veni is an island of relative credit stability compared to Hungary and Poland who stand on porcelian legs of EU convergence

12-04-03  wally: <how 'bout yom sylvester in vegas...> sounds good <grande> but i am afraid everything is booked already. <did you use the tadalafil...> no; i brought it to (you know where) for a lab ANAL-ysis.

12-04-03  victorn: <Fiji is not realy Fiji> which reminds me of something i always wanted to ask: why do you call if fiji if it is not fiji?

12-04-03  victorn: roguetrader, could you please send me via email your email address? thanks.

12-04-03  Advice55: Wally, I gto desapointed in knowing that Fiji is not realy Fiji. I thought I would Surf before our meeting next year! hehehe

SPX is a sell again....


12-04-03  savonarola: <Mandrills> selling Guano this afternoon will regret their misdeeds.

DRKW

Ecuador
&#9658; Positive: Decline in unemployment Unemployment fell to 9.3% in October from 10.1% the previous month. This represents the lowest level since March. There is a good chance of a further fall over the next two months, on the back of the expected pickup in Q4 activity.

&#9658; Positive: Improvement in trade performance continues The trade deficit in October was US$51m. This compares with a US$113m shortfall in October last year. Export revenues grew 16.6% yoy, boosted by buoyant oil prices and increasing production, whilst imports grew a modest 1.8%yoy. A continued improvement in exports was anticipated on the back of the completion of the OCP oil pipeline. Looking ahead, there may also now be some recovery in non-oil exports, as the dollar weakening boosts Ecuador&#146;s export competitiveness.


12-04-03  Fox: Vallito!! :-)))))))

12-04-03  Fox: India Assets:
Equity: HDB, IBN, INFY, MTE, REDF, SAY, VSL, WIT.

Closed End Funds: IFN, IIF.

China Assests:

Equity:ACH, ASIA, ASTT, BYH, CBA, CEA, CEO, CHDX, CHINA, CHL, CHRB, CHU, CYD, DCFT, HNP, JCC, NTES, PTR, SHI, SNP, SOHU, XING, YZC.

Closed End Funds: CHN, EWH, JFC, TDF.

I have excluded all assets that quote in Pink Sheets.

Use the research option of this site to start:

http://www.investorguide.com/ just type the ticker.

I will send some research to CloloresFiles.


12-04-03  roguetrader18: Embratel 08: 101-101.50 , 500m up. Any players

12-04-03  ElGrande: <shall we schedule another Fiji meeting soon and charter our own colores jet?> Why not? I'm always looking for a party wally...goin' stateside for navidad....how 'bout yom sylvester in vegas...did you use the tadalafil...


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