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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, December 5, '03 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Era of shaky job security for the CEO 12-05-03 (Yahoo) Despite an economic recovery and improving stock market, a stark reality faces America's business elite:
*Will Greenspan Shift Gears? 12-05-03 (Yahoo) Quite a lot has happened since Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policymakers last met on Oct. 28.
*The not-so-mighty dollar 12-05-03 (Yahoo) “DOLLAR Plunges” or “Euro Soars” make good front-page headlines. But the dollar's slide over the past two years has seemed too gradual to qualify for such treatment,
*Bush Cant Say `Mission Accomplished on Economy 12-05-03 (Yahoo) Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- A recent spate of good news for the U.S. economy has led some commentators and policy makers to claim ``mission accomplished'' on a strong recovery.
*Federal spending per household is most since WWII 12-05-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON -- Congress is set to end its session next week with a vote on an $820 billion appropriations bill,
*Worker output rises at 9.4% clip 12-05-03 (USA Today) WASHINGTON -- Worker productivity rose at the quickest pace in 20 years in the third quarter, the government said Wednesday.
*Can Profits Promote Democracy in Africa? 12-05-03 (NY Times) LUANDA, Angola — The United States is expected to import 25 percent of its oil from Africa by 2015.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Mexico Now Feels Pinch of Cheap Labor 12-04-03 (Washington Post) An Economy Built on Low Wages Finds Itself Undercut by Influx of Chinese Imports
*Brazil Mayor Bars Gays from Moving to Town 12-04-03 (Yahoo) RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (Reuters) - A Brazilian (news - web sites) mayor has issued a decree barring homosexuals from moving to his town,

 RUSSIA
*If Geology Is Destiny, Then Russia Is in Trouble 12-05-03 (NY Times) WASHINGTON — Russia's future will be defined as much by geology as by ideology.
*Move to Revive Merger of Russian Oil Companies 12-04-03 (NY Times) The major shareholders of the Russian oil companies Yukos and Sibneft have been discussing how they can keep their $13 billion merger alive,

 OIL PRICES
*The Age of Oil Is Over 12-05-03 (Yahoo) What would you do differently if you knew you would run out of oil in your lifetime?
*OPEC Will Hold Current Oil Output Steady 12-05-03 (Yahoo) VIENNA, Austria - OPEC (news - web sites) announced Thursday that it would hold its current oil production target steady but meet again in February to consider cutting output to match an expected decline in springtime demand.
*With Oil Prices High, OPEC Is Ready to Defer Supply Cut 12-05-03 (NY Times) VIENNA, Dec. 3 - Delegates to a gathering here of OPEC nations signaled on Wednesday that they might consider reducing oil production again by early next year,
*Attacks on Iraqs Oil Better Planned -Official 12-05-03 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Attacks on Iraq (news - web sites)'s oil installations are becoming better organized and more concerted, particularly in the northern oil fields, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday.
*Australia Promoting Its Natural Gas in U.S. 12-04-03 (NY Times) Geoff Gallop, the state premier of Western Australia, is visiting the United States to help ChevronTexaco sell Australia's natural gas.
 
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12-05-03  PILLZ: Schpal , always consult Carib before selling, it must be the rule, I didn't consult him before selling ALVR and AIRN, took profit, but they are still higher then I sold..

12-05-03  leo: Spal alvr 11.22 gaining 5.7 percent...

12-05-03  savonarola: I hope so Leo.. I am one of those silly unbelievers in <Europlan> its currency or its politicians. It looks as if the americans are even worse.

Long Live Venezuela !

Long live Comandante Chavez !

Long live la Revolucion !

Long Live Guano and its indisputed undefeated Leader Coronel Lucio Gutierrez !

Long Live Mendoza and its wines !

Long live the <Color of the Market>!!!!!!


12-05-03  SPAL: ALVR 11.27 +0.67

I guess not Leo!!


12-05-03  PILLZ: <no <philly> i cancelled the deal. > vhy ?

Now more important, the discussion about chlemiel or chlemazel, my father was chocked that I didn't know the diff., both word exist, but a chlemiel is more accentuated to someone that is a little bit mental, or brain-amputed, but a schlemazel have all his brains, but all what he is doing go the wrong way..


12-05-03  eletrico: Carib: just for the record, I was offered today BRL-denominated CESP bonds, called Certificados a Termo de Energia Elétrica- 9ª emissão, maturing monthly between may 2006 and november 2007, issued with an interest rate of DI +2% per year, at a discount of 17% on par value.

12-05-03  leo: guano 12 trading 94\95 real world....

12-05-03  leo: Savo we may see weakness until the Central Banks are willing as it was the case with the once sliding euro to draw a line in the send and intervene togeather at the same in the forex market....that will give a clear signal to the markets...

12-05-03  Zephyr: Hey, the dollar's holding steady against the Sucre

12-05-03  SPAL: <12-05-03 PILLZ: Schpal, CTLM, any news ?? > no it is just floating around ...

12-05-03  savonarola: leo....<greenback plunging against zeuro>

Dollar just plunging against everything....tha €, tha Pound, tha CH, the Yen, tha aussi....

Dollar <just> plunging!


12-05-03  roguetrader18: mejia 13s: 73/75

12-05-03  amigo latino: El Grande, did you buy any CESP bonds or stocks? (I remember sending you a while ago some old news extracts about CESP).

12-05-03  leo: greenback plunging against zeuro...1.216

12-05-03  PILLZ: Schpal, CTLM, any news ??

12-05-03  SPAL: should read <BUY orders came in today>

12-05-03  SPAL: <<12-05-03 leo: ALVR I don't see any weakness... >> I don't question the secular strength, I am clipping a transitional high IMO ... orders can in today on the Netgear news and the Forbes article on wireless ... I think buying interest for today was exhausted at 11 am ... I may be wrong so I was conservative and did not short ...

12-05-03  savonarola: Guano banks have learnt well from the argi <corralito> experience.

El Universo:

<Los bancos tienen $ 819,8 millones en el extranjero>


Los depósitos que mantienen los 22 bancos privados en el exterior aumentaron el 18,3% entre enero y octubre del 2003 para ubicarse en 819,8 millones de dólares, según estadísticas de la Superintendencia de Bancos (SB).

Estos fondos son utilizados como fuentes de liquidez (dinero disponible) por cada uno de los bancos para garantizar los depósitos de los clientes que mantienen en el sistema financiero.

Pero ahora la banca propone la conformación de un nuevo fondo de liquidez que se alimentará de los recursos de todas las entidades financieras.

Ángelo Caputi, presidente de la Asociación de Bancos Privados del Ecuador (ABPE), explicó que el nuevo fondo servirá para dar más seguridad a los clientes.

<“La principal función de la banca es proteger los dineros de los depositantes. Los depósitos aumentan cuando hay seguridad”, sostuvo.>

Actualmente existe el Fondo de Liquidez, pero es manejado por el Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE) y reúne cerca de 200 millones de dólares. Sin embargo, cada entidad mantiene recursos en el exterior como medida de precaución.

Es así que en octubre pasado el Banco del Pichincha mantuvo 284,5 millones en bancos extranjeros, Bolivariano (93,9 millones) y Guayaquil 82,6 millones. El único que no registró depósitos fuera del país es el Sudamericano.

Según Caputi, el nuevo fondo sería manejado internacionalmente por la banca y en forma independiente. “Nos falta un sinnúmero de reglamentaciones pero lo vamos a realizar”, sostuvo. Las negociaciones se mantienen entre la SB, BCE y la ABPE.

Las estadísticas de la Asociación de Bancos señalan que las 22 entidades mantienen 1.300 millones de dólares en fondos disponibles, pero el 63% está depositado en cuentas de bancos extranjeros (819,8 millones). El resto corresponde a inversiones, depósitos en bancos locales, entre otros.

Mauricio Yépez, presidente del directorio del Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE), señaló que la intención es fortalecer el fondo. Además, reducir los efectos de la ausencia del prestamista de última instancia en las tasas de interés.


12-05-03  leo: ALVR I don't see any weakness...

12-05-03  SPAL: ALVR - divorced. Looking for weakness.

12-05-03  wally: <PILLZ: Vaaaallly, bought your 250K CESP in euros via Amex-Lux, but at 89..:-)) did you get it already, or is your bank still looking for this paper ??> no <philly> i cancelled the deal.

12-05-03  savonarola: <Ladronia> at its best...

La Nacion:

El Senado aprobó ayer y giró a la Cámara de Diputados un proyecto que modifica la ley de quiebras para que a las empresas en problemas les sea más fácil llegar a acuerdos extrajudiciales con sus acreedores. La norma, que tendrá vigencia mientras dure la emergencia económica (prorrogada por el Congreso hasta diciembre de 2004), flexibiliza las mayorías necesarias en los concursos para homologar acuerdos. . Según explicó a LA NACION el presidente del bloque justicialista de la Cámara alta, Miguel Angel Pichetto (Río Negro), la iniciativa "favorece una más rápida y ágil reestructuración de la deuda privada argentina, con el fin de generar un horizonte de previsibilidad que permita destrabar la actividad económica nacional". El proyecto consta de una sola cláusula con dos incisos y modifica el artículo 73 de la ley de quiebras. . <El segundo inciso reduce las mayorías necesarias para homologar un acuerdo al 51% del capital quirografario, "siempre que el juez considere que el acuerdo resulta equitativo para el deudor, los acreedores" y las partes involucradas. Hasta el momento, para lograr consenso en esa materia se necesita el 66,67% de la voluntad de los acreedores.> . A los efectos del cómputo de esa mayoría, los créditos denominados en moneda extranjera y que hubieran sido excluidos de la pesificación deberán computarse por su monto en pesos, a la paridad 1 a 1. . La iniciativa fue redactada por Pichetto y el chaqueño Jorge Capitanich (PJ) y fue aprobada por amplia mayoría sobre tablas y sin debate, aunque los autores del proyecto insertaron sus discursos. . Al explicar los alcances del proyecto, Pichetto destacó que con estos cambios "se impulsa los acuerdos de reestructuración privados y extrajudiciales (de deuda), evitando recargar la administración de justicia con concursos y quiebras innecesarias". En los fundamentos de la iniciativa -que ahora deberá ser ratificada por la Cámara baja-, los autores destacan que "la conducta o accionar de los "fondos buitres", que lucran con la necesidad y los efectos devastadores de la crisis, es calificada por nuestro derecho penal como una conducta abusiva y no amparada por nuestras normas positivas". . En ese sentido, se destacan como maniobras ilegítimas las denominadas "blocking positions", es decir la aplicación del peso de sus acreencias para evitar acuerdos que puedan impedir una quiebra. . Las modificaciones a la ley de quiebras fueron impulsadas con recomendación de varias entidades empresariales y consultores especializados, como el Centro para la Estabilidad Financiera (CEF), que conducen los ex funcionarios Daniel Marx y Miguel Kiguel, entre otros.


12-05-03  roguetrader18: sure. i see that you guys get picked off on your fills so i think it adds value...

12-05-03  savonarola: roguy.. are you going to post here every price that you have, and every trade that goes through your screen?

12-05-03  roguetrader18: 1 mio petbra 18: @ 100.35, last trade up at 30

12-05-03  PILLZ: Vaaaallly, bought your 250K CESP in euros via Amex-Lux, but at 89..:-)) did you get it already, or is your bank still looking for this paper ??

12-05-03  roguetrader18: petbra 18: up to 100.30 on 500m

12-05-03  wally: Bra40 is melting too!

12-05-03  wally: <ElGrande: Aga Sophia '30 on fire...Toooooorrrrrgggggaaaayyyyyyyy> terrible meltdown! ask 132 !!!

12-05-03  ElGrande: Aga Sophia '30 on fire...Toooooorrrrrgggggaaaayyyyyyyy

12-05-03  SPAL: <12-05-03 Advice55: Spal I understand we are making jokes untill the day it happens again, cause when it does, <<no jokes only sadness and capital destruction... >>> life is a tragedy, besides that things like capital [more of less of it] have very little consequence ...

12-05-03  SPAL: Housing market boble in USA would explode and than the last one to save his ass will be poor, if not dead....IMHO "And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken." (Luke 21:25-26)>> ...

12-05-03  Hase: <leo: Hase maybe we haven't seen the bottom,agreed,>

<leo> where do you see the bottom?


12-05-03  Hase: übrigens <gflüchelhändler>, der "fast noch neuwertige" 190er 2,5 mit 17 1/2 Jahren uffm Buckel isch gestern durch den TÜV gekommen. Habb awwa rd. 400 DM investieren misse.

Now looking for a Toyota "Corolla-station wagon" from danmark. Less 25%. The new shitty mercedes you can not buy because too many mistakes in the electronic! Next week I have to visit the mercedes-garage with the new one. (10.400 km). Don´t ask me for all the mistakes.


12-05-03  leo: Hase maybe we haven't seen the bottom,agreed, but the point I make is that a default is very very unlikely and so if you buy just a part of your position now it seems imho very logical.....

12-05-03  Hase: ...differentiate from <Fiji> where the first big colores meeting was held. that was <fiji 3.0> and <original fiji> is another place somewhere west of Europe.

12-05-03  wally: <For me it seems we have not seen the deepest point yet.> scheiss aufn chart <hase> der macht keine kurse. but there is no hurry for us to get in. i agree with you that we might still see better prices.

12-05-03  leo: Wally is THE CAC's expert!

12-05-03  Fox: Spaaalll it woprks it relly works!!! But cant say it on public as sources dont allow it!!!

<play it backwards you might find out who killed Kennedy ...>

<<...Kennedy killed who out find might you backwards it play>>


12-05-03  Hase: Who is specialist for <DR> ??? (9.04% - 2013) I have just got the bloomy chart.

From January to April 101-96, then in july down to 90, rebount to 96. A sharp decline since beginning of september. For me it seems we have not seen the deepest point yet. What are the fundamentals behind?


12-05-03  wally: <Zephyr: Does the DOMREP 13 have the new SDRM clauses> according to my info no. but does it really matter? Argentina is the living proof that any clauses be they pari passu or whatever are not worth the time to read or consider them.

last year there was the big hoo-hah in the financial community and when Mexico issued in march with the clause nobody winked an eye.


12-05-03  Hackney: I understand Advice's point. I can see the leverage. But timing is everything in this game. And at this point the risk is not deflation but inflation in the US. Thats what the Fed is trying to create. Melting away the GNoE's debts cos they know they can never be repaid unless there is an inflation haircut.

The question in my mind is not whether this will happen, but rather when will people notice. Boiling frogs is a gradual business. At which point will dollar investors say, "sure I made 20% in US stocks, but Im losing 25% in the dollar, and they are still printing more"...

Plus I am watching the trade deficit like I used to watch the weather channel. If this is the US coming out of recession what happens to consumption and imports if the "recovery" gains speed...

The Fed and the BoJ and SNB are the lenders of last resort - but who is consumer of last resort, and can we take their credit..

Anyway, I doubt there is any reason to worry till next year now...


12-05-03  ruspan: Just came back from the village where I buy cigarettes. An old man in a durty clothes was shouting to his friend in the bar "And i can tell it to Aznar or the king or whoever, those land prices are insane and plain crazy!". Out of the bar he took his Porche SUV, still shouting to his friend. :-)))) Spain is becaming a weird place, he he he.

12-05-03  amigo latino: <Advice55: China is growing at 7%/10% for about 7 years now, The base to compare is getting larger and it looks like very soon China will be bellow expectations as well. Same thing goes for India.... Expectations are just to high, leaving realy small space for good surprises and large spaces for bad ones..……….>

Possibly more people are unemployed than employed in India. As more of them are drawn into workforce , I am sure that the economy would keep growing. Also as education levels keep growing, additional impetus for growth will be coming(It is ttrue India has many educated , but it is also true that there are many analphabets and many with limited education). Also the saving levels in India are high and possibly would continue to be high for a longtime to come.

IMHO. China also has a lot of room to expand (production and employment)……explanations in another posting.


12-05-03  Zephyr: Does the DOMREP 13 have the new SDRM clauses (i.e., no need to get 100% majority to restructure?). Most of the bonds issued this year have them (85% of holders needed to restructure), but maybe this was issued early enough (Jan 16 this year) to escape them.

12-05-03  wally: <that was the speach after the russian crisis, and after the asian crisis, and after the tequila crisis>

make up your mind <advice> and stop changing the subject. we talked about a terrorist attack and not about a default crisis. on top of that stop lecturing us that 2+2=4, e.g. <To be a bottom fisher you must sell before it melts, otherwise, with no cash, no bottom fishing for you.... If you are levaraged, worst, no bottom fishing and imediate selling, at any price....> because it is not only boring but also insulting.



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