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Emerging Markets |
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Friday, February 20, '04
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 | Consumer Prices Rise 0.5 Percent in Jan. 02-20-04 (Yahoo) Sharply higher costs for gasoline and other energy products pushed consumer prices in January up by 0.5 percent, the largest increase in nearly a year.
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| President steps back from rosy forecast on new jobs 02-20-04 (Yahoo) President Bush (news - web sites) on Wednesday distanced himself from his economic advisers' claim that the economy would add 2.6 million jobs this year, enough to erase virtually all of the job losses incurred during his first term.
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| Economy Making Small Strides - Reports 02-20-04 (Yahoo) The number of Americans signing up for initial jobless benefits fell much more than expected last week, suggesting the labor market was healing, though only slowly.
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| Leading Indicators Rise in January 02-20-04 (Yahoo) A key economic forecasting gauge advanced a strong 0.5 percent in January, suggesting that the economy will expand further in coming months.
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| World economic confidence at 10 year high, ICC/Ifo poll finds 02-19-04 (Yahoo) Global economic confidence is at a ten year high, according to the results of a survey by the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites) (ICC) and the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo released here Wednesday by the ICC.
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| US dollar stumbles to fresh lows 02-19-04 (BBC) The US dollar revived in late New York trading after dropping to a new record low against the euro and also slipping against other world currencies.
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| White House Backs Off Job-Growth Forecast 02-19-04 (Yahoo) The White House backed away Wednesday from its own prediction that the economy will add 2.6 million new jobs before the end of this year,
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| Chavez Foes Ask OAS Chief to Save Venezuela Poll 02-20-04 (Yahoo) Venezuela's opposition appealed to the head of the Organization of American States on Thursday to rush to Caracas to stop what they said were President Hugo Chavez's efforts to block a recall referendum against him.
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| Brazil maintains lending rate 02-20-04 (Financial Times) Brazil's central bank on Wednesday held its prime lending rate unchanged at 16.5 per cent for a second consecutive month, raising questions about the timing of an expected economic recovery.
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| US is trying to overthrow me, says Venezuelan leader 02-19-04 (Yahoo) The Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, yesterday angrily accused the United States of being behind a 2002 coup and of helping continuing opposition attempts to overthrow him.
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| Venezuela Rules Out US Oil Boycott Despite Spat With Bush 02-19-04 (Yahoo) Venezuela has no plans to curtail oil exports to the U.S. despite an ongoing spat with Washington over alleged U.S. interference in domestic politics, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Wednesday.
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| Russia Told It Understates Dependence on Oil Sales 02-20-04 (NY Times) Russia's economy is more deeply dependent on oil and gas than previously thought, with energy making up an estimated 25 percent of output instead of the 9 percent attributed to it in Russia's own accounts,
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| Norway to host Philippines peace talks 02-20-04 (Yahoo) Representatives for both the authorities and communist rebels in the Philippines will meet in Norway next month to resume formal peace talks.
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| Japan oil consortium seeks European partners 02-20-04 (Financial Times) European oil companies, including Royal Dutch/Shell, might participate with Japanese companies in developing Iran's Azadegan oilfield, a Japanese government official said yesterday.
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| The Making of an African Petrostate 02-19-04 (NY Times) As night fell and the bright lights of the brand-new oil field wrapped this hamlet in their golden glow, Neurmbaye Elie, a local farmer, pointed across the field before him.
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Newest messages appear on top.
02-20-04
ruspan:
Viktorn: I paid i full when I aproved what was done with my money :-)
Bombs for serbs, afgans and iraquies - I live you to pay, if you wish.
02-20-04
PILLZ:
<BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna reaffirmed on Friday in a television interview that the debt restructuring offer to creditors will not include $18 billion in unpaid interest since the January 2002 default.
Lavagna was responding to a La Nacion report which said the government is studying various alternatives to improve the offer to holders of $88 billion in bonds in default and one option would be to pay part of the unpaid interest. Lavagna told a local television station early Friday that "there is no one in the government nor the Ministry of Economy who backs up the report of that newspaper."
In its report Friday, La Nacion quoted an unidentified government source who said Argentina was under "extremely strong pressure from different sectors."
Argentina is offering to pay bondholders 25 percent of the face value of the bonds in default, a proposal that has irritated creditors from New York to Frankfurt to Tokyo.
On Thursday, German Finance Minister Hans Eichel on a visit to Argentina urged the government to "consider if it can perhaps go a step further in its offer.">
:-))MTR,called me again , they ups their offer to 58, no way
Sbarro up again today, new money entering the junk funds
Savo, I did have a DR masseuse in SD (she came with her massage bed in Melia-hotel), the Canadian one was in the Club Med, but there I never take a massage as they don't come to do it in the looom..,
If someone is interested when he is in SD, as she was really a good professional masseuse, I have her name and Tel. n°
02-20-04
wally:
<Does everyone have to pay for posting?> posting is free of charge <arlequim>.
02-20-04
ruspan:
Victorn:<02-20-04 victorn: ruspan do you appreciate the high tax enviroment spain currently has, in good part thanks to the psoe, in order to "converge" with the eu?> I have apreciated in Psoe times the extension of the coverage of SS to every spanish citizen, that changed the lifes of many, the modernization of infrastructure that changed the country and a lot of other things. The most significant and shoking result of PP times is a sharp differenciacion of the formal middle class in haves and have nots and RE apeciation that is bleeding half of spaniards and spanish buisnesses, negated an access to RE for significant proportion of population. Those who acsess will pay unreasonable big money for long years and will spend those years commuting in trafic jams... because the speculators have bought half of Madrid and left it empty.
02-20-04
victorn:
arlequim i have never paid bn anything.
02-20-04
arlequim:
Colores I just received an e-mail from BN saying my free subscription will expire & I will be charged to keeping registered. Does everyone have to pay for posting?
02-20-04
victorn:
ruspan <trying to escape from high taxes is a moral duty! > yet it does not fit very well with ruspan's leftist ideals. :-)
02-20-04
victorn:
ruspan do you appreciate the high tax enviroment spain currently has, in good part thanks to the psoe, in order to "converge" with the eu?
02-20-04
carib:
Anticipation of week-end. PT: the fact that the Franco-German odd couple had to invite the hated Blair proves the point that, by themselves, they are leading Europe no more. By establishing the triumvirate they surely managed to create one more conflict. We will later see if that solved more problems than it created.
02-20-04
carib:
Ruspan: if you take a loan to buy a house without taking a mortgage, any clever tax-inspector would ask you: where is the collateral? However, I know nothing about spanish tax theory and tax reality... You appear to agree with Berlusconi: trying to escape from high taxes is a moral duty!
02-20-04
ruspan:
Carib: There was a different tax reason, I took a loan just to not to have to explain where did the money for my house came from. All my gains are completely in other place, do not want to pay taxes to pay taxes to the government that enters one war after another for flimsy reasons.
02-20-04
carib:
Ruspan: true...if there is a tax reason, taking a loan might be more interesting than posting a profit on a fx forward...but if one starts paying taxes, even fat coupons and nice cap-gains suffer deep bites :-(
02-20-04
carib:
IMHO, Danni, it's not so important what <monkeys> like...but rather what <real money> likes. If real money starts pouring back in droves into brasil, then the trend will invert.
02-20-04
ruspan:
Carib:<than selling the depreciating currency forward, and roll over the forwards? > Was just too sofisticated for a dumb investor like me,
and also I needed some loans for a technical reason here. i will learn to do it, however, if EMD takes too much time getting to a reasonable levels. Asset bubble is not only boring me, it takes all the CCC fun out ! :-)))
02-20-04
carib:
Ruspan: taking a loan in US$ @ 0,84 was a good idea...but unless you actually hedge, is it not in the end more expensive than selling the depreciating currency forward, and roll over the forwards?
02-20-04
danni:
it look like monkys love lulu @ this levels ,SAVO. for me that was the last opp` to load & i tok it i hope i was right to do so.
02-20-04
carib:
Savo: <missed the real DR>...obvious! but not entirely...a dinner @ the recommended "Punta Cana Resort gave us a glimpse of <real DR>...memorable!
BTW: I did not have any <massage>, Dominican or Canadian...
02-20-04
carib:
Concerning the Euro FX, the big question is if the US$ is about to reverse the down trend, and start moving back to par. I am not sure about that, even if I consider the Euro overvalued. Obviously, the best is always holding assets in the currency that appreciates, and debts (if any) in the currency that depreciates.
However, the pain (or pleasure) depends a lot, IMHO, from where the individual investor is based. A EU based investor, for example, would not suffer if the US$ moves up...unless he has net debts in US$. a US$ based investor, on the other hand, does not suffer a lot from the $ deval...unless he has debts in Euros...
02-20-04
ruspan:
Danni, we're in the opposite points :-) I took a $$ loan at 0.84, still not in a harry to pay :-)
02-20-04
danni:
victorn: carib do you still own brasil bonds? ....VIC for the that trust lula lula it is buy opp` . is anyone is loadig lula @ this level???????
02-20-04
savonarola:
carib...<BTW: the massage girls were...Canadians! (at almost canadian-prices, If I was correctly informed>then you missed the real DR!
02-20-04
carib:
Guano-prices, please
02-20-04
carib:
Vic: yes, I still hold a portion of my old Bra position. the longest dated sov bond is 2009 (Euro) Surprisingly the CESP exposure did not lose...
02-20-04
danni:
leo:..and when it does it will be painfull for the ones long ze eulo!!!! .....i hope you right i tok a loan in zeeulo @ 1.o7 @3.75%intrest i have to pay it one day,.. not like lula of SAVO that take our mony but dosnt pay one one day
02-20-04
carib:
Amigo: BTW: the massage girls were...Canadians! (at almost canadian-prices, If I was correctly informed)
02-20-04
carib:
Amigo: DR provided Colores with the impression of a very confused country. But certainly not of a developed country!
02-20-04
amigo latino:
<carib: … devaluations of 70% and total government default are not seen in developed countries, except after a disastrous war>. How about the seductive DR( which has just given its smiles, warmth and massages to the Colores!)?
02-20-04
victorn:
carib do you still own brasil bonds?
02-20-04
victorn:
leo <and when it does it will be painfull for the ones long ze eulo!!!!> considering how much the € has gone up, no ploblem if it drops a bit. we are generous people. :-)
02-20-04
savonarola:
danni.. you have a god point.. if it was true.Unfortunately MD didn't take it because he was promised by the bankers that he was going to be able to fool investors again at even lower rates.
He was caught and now regrets it.
Brazil is in a downward spiral.
Any attemps by the <monkeys> to bid it up in order to protect the value of their positions and get rid of their risk managers will be met by more selling by those investors that MD thinks that he fooled.
02-20-04
victorn:
cheetah <did you do the short Citi long Deutsche ??? - C + DB ???> no, i decided to leave all the profits to you.
02-20-04
danni:
savo: MD Palocci should have given those dummies the whole amount......you give the answer yourslef thy take what thy need not what thy can get ,if one is going to pay the bill is not going to take what he dont need like the argi & send it to swwwiseland
02-20-04
Pelegrino-spo:
<with nobody giving a cent about them.> HEhhehheh? Cent? U guys give millions!
02-20-04
carib:
Amigo: with due respect, devaluations of 70% and total government default are not seen in developed countries, except after a disastrous war.
02-20-04
PILLZ:
< carib: Guano 30 now yielding same as Ven 18...and not far from Br 40 (YTM)...is it reasonable? >Carib, as I told , when bonds go down, the best time to make arbitrage in EM and in schweinkram blonds, market don't diff. in credit quality, no time , bisy arbitrating..see you later..
02-20-04
leo:
Today's data showed inflation in the Us is still alive....$ at 1.26 the figure......dollar biuty doesn't need much to revert the trend.....and when it does it will be painfull for the ones long ze eulo!!!!
02-20-04
amigo latino:
<carib: Concerning Debt/gdp ratios... I was reading somewhere that Argentina, with the haircutted restructuring...aims to bring the ratio to 100%! Brilliant! Before deval-default, the ratio was about half of that! Beauty of Argy-math!……..>An indication of how short sighted it is for countries(sovereigns and privates) to go on a borrowing spree in foreign currencies! As to devaluation/ depreciation, it is a fact of life even for the most powerful countries!
02-20-04
optimist:
Carib: do you have indication for Ven27?
02-20-04
carib:
Guano 30 now yielding same as Ven 18...and not far from Br 40 (YTM)...is it reasonable?
02-20-04
leo:
Savo no one can deny that economically and (geo)politically Brazil is a far more important market and country than argentina.....not as important as Russia I agree...
02-20-04
savonarola:
Ambito
<¿Y el Lazard Frères?>
Desde del Ministerio de Economía se ocuparon ayer de distribuir información relacionada con el menor costo que tendrá la operación de reestructurar la deuda. Apuntan a evitar comparaciones con el megacanje de Cavallo y otras contrataciones. Pero no figuró en los informes oficiales lo que se abonó al francés Lazard Frères, en una contratación hecha por Lavagna hace un año y no menos polémica. Esa entidad nunca operó en mercados emergentes, no tenía sucursal alguna en América latina. Su función nunca quedó claramente definida y aún hoy no se sabe cuál fue el aporte efectuado por la entidad francesa. Funcionarios del Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental del FMI recuerdan haber sido contactados por ejecutivos de esa firma sobre la definición de «superávit primario».
02-20-04
carib:
Veni down again...did Pinky talk again?
02-20-04
leo:
Argy\Brazil...Ukraine\Russia...imnsho.
02-20-04
amigo latino:
Possibly all Latin American countries with the exception of Chile have not advanced much in the last 30-50 years. The region is blessed with abundant and fertile land, always had and has well above starvation level standard of living(most LA countries can be classified as middle income countries). The standard of living of these countries seem to be going up for a few years and then goes down suddenly, thus managing to stay at the same level in the long run. No wonder life is without too much stress(except in sudden economic crisis situations as in DR). Comments and corrections are welcome.
02-20-04
savonarola:
turtle...<Argentina is Argentina, Brazil is Brazil period>and argi is brazil and brazil is argie........
both the same crap.. one and the same, sinking down there in the end of the southern world, with nobody giving a cent about them.
02-20-04
Cheetah:
Glutty glutty...seems like once again you are irritated ???i am sorry to always disappoint you...why don't you just talk more care in following the percentages instead of fighting them all the time...you would be mucho mas ritchier and having fun...try showering your girls with diamonds !!!
unless of course you are in line in San Francisco...
02-20-04
savonarola:
carib... 20, 18, 15 .. whatever...Brazil has not changed.. it is the same....<yesterday.......>
02-20-04
carib:
Savo: Brasil domestic debt, during 2003, has been accruing interest @ almost 20%. No strange thing the total increased, rather than the other way around.
02-20-04
Cheetah:
hey victhorn...
did you do the short Citi long Deutsche ??? - C + DB ???
lastima...
02-20-04
Cheetah:
"02-20-04 leo: Savo I desagree...comparing ARGY with Brazil is like comparing Russia with Ukraine....imho"leo...imho...
i think you need some "mojito's" in Calle 8 and some time off in South Beach...after taking it easy i am sure you will get back on track...
02-20-04
turtle:
Argentina is Argentina, Brazil is Brazil period
02-20-04
carib:
R$ back to about 3 per US$...sounds like a fall from 2,8 (last year top)...but after all the difference is just the size of R$ inflation during the last year. YoY, the R$ is up about 20% on the US$...more or less like the Euro.
02-20-04
savonarola:
<I> bovespa coming back...Pele........ <you are not alone>.
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