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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, March 19, '04 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Analysts Predict Higher Gas Prices 03-19-04 (Yahoo) As oil prices jump to a 14-year high, there is growing speculation that gasoline this summer could reach a national average of $2 per gallon, and even higher in some regions.
*Is inflation ready for a revival? 03-19-04 (Yahoo) Remember inflation? It is the forgotten economic problem, one that virtually everyone assumes is a problem of the past, not the present or future.
*Britain to rival US in test of strength 03-19-04 (Yahoo) Britain will enjoy growth of more than 3% in each of the next two years as it continues the longest run of uninterrupted expansion
*IMF to revise US growth figures 03-19-04 (BBC) The International Monetary Fund is to raise its forecast for world economic growth in 2004 to 4.6%, Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper reports.
*Dollar Weakens on Global Security Fears 03-19-04 (Yahoo) The dollar slumped on Thursday after a bomb scare disrupted passenger train traffic between Britain and France,
*Jobless Claims Fell By 6,000 to 3-Year Low Last Week 03-19-04 (Yahoo) The number of U.S. workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell to a three-year low last week, suggesting gradual improvement in country's long-battered job market.
*More delays in attempt to unseat Chávez 03-18-04 (Financial Times) Complex legal wrangles are set to delay further the result of an opposition campaign to force Hugo Chávez,

 LATIN AMERICA
*Brazil raises hopes of Doha deal next year 03-19-04 (Financial Times) Brazil, leader of the Group of 20 developing countries pressing for farm trade reforms,

 ASIA
*Shell To Sell Entire Stake In Chinas Sinopec 03-18-04 (Yahoo) Royal Dutch/Shell (NYSE:RD - News) Group (RD, SC) Wednesday said it was selling its entire stake of 1.85 billion shares in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
*Global entertainment czars gung-ho over India 03-18-04 (Yahoo) the fifth convention of the global entertainment business, whizzed through the lakeside Renaissance Hotel in Mumbai this week,

 OIL PRICES
*Shell cuts oil reserves again 03-19-04 (BBC) The oil reserve downgrade is Shell's second in as many months Energy giant Shell has delayed its annual report, due on Friday, until later in the year.
*OPEC Revises Down 2Q Demand For First Time In 6 Months 03-19-04 (Yahoo) Setting the stage for a possible quota cut at its upcoming meeting, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the first time in six months revised down estimates of how much of its oil the world will need in the second quarter.
*Oil Prices Reach 13-Year High, Posing Threat to U.S. Economy 03-19-04 (Yahoo) The price of crude oil hit its highest level in 13 years Wednesday, raising the risk to an economy struggling to create jobs.
*Higher energy costs boost US producer prices 03-19-04 (Financial Times) Higher energy costs are pushing up producer prices, according to a delayed set of data released on Thursday.
 
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03-19-04  leo: Russian equities are in a very good mood....guano 30 ask 89...

03-19-04  Primo: opti: <If remainig are sold - only to Russia state owned cos.. at 70% discount to current market value. Want a bet?> You meant Rosneft?:)))) On this issue i cant bet - since it never happens i never win:) I accept bet only SIBN. ...and btw cirun BTW it's my source:)

03-19-04  spurs: <a matter of resourse security for Russia TNK major owners - Wekselberg, Blavatnik and Co - got US citizenship a long time ago. Bet you know it. >

I havnt been to Moscow for a year now, but after four years in New York you could easily get the impression that any Russian Oligarch who doesnt have Israeli nationality has US nationality instead. Mind you, Misha Ks efforts in Yankee land didnt keep him out of jail.. And he paid the max!


03-19-04  cirun: Yesterday ther has been build a provisorial fence on the street around the scool, where are my childrens going to in france. They got explainet it should be defen<c>e aigainst terrorist attacs (auto bomb) and is done in whole the country at the scools. Im feeling now like livining in Israel-((

03-19-04  cirun: From Ruspans source concerning Khodorvski issue < They too suffer flight capital that returns as offshore loans to the government. This phenomenon has left these countries so deeply indebted to their own oligarchy, operating offshore and merging its claims with those of foreigners, that they have lost their domestic autonomy to IMF planners following the Washington Consensus.> It highlights also Kirchners Situation and his behavior with a glimps of clair light, IMHO.

03-19-04  k1: Translation of IHT is very bad and out of context. I have no sympahty for Struck, but what he actually said (not the bullshit IHT translated) is correct. If you go into Irak to burn down the place for fake reasons (WOM etc.) against the will of the World Community (UN) you have to clean up the mess you made on your own, too and can´t leave the place in chaos. Actually it is still an ocupied territory so the ocupiers have leagal duties, too.

<03-18-04 carib: IHT: <an unusual dialogue took place Tuesday on Deutschlandfunk, a German state radio station, between a reporter and Defense Minister Peter Struck, a Social Democrat, emphasizing how much the Germans wanted to get away from the old classifications in which Zapatero seemed to seek a place. . Q. "Have you been following with sympathy the change in the Spanish government's foreign and security policy." . Struck: "No." ... . Q. "Do you feel something like a subliminal satisfaction that Spain has now come down on the side of Berlin and Paris?" . Struck: "No. You just can't work with that kind of categorizing, especially in the area of foreign and security policy." . To a question about whether he would prefer that Spain kept its troops in Iraq, the defense minister modulated his directness a sixteenth-turn, replying: "The important thing, naturally, is that an international presence remains in Iraq. The hypothesis of a full-fledged withdrawal, with the Americans going along, would markedly raise instability in the country."> >


03-19-04  Primo: Opti my bet is that Sibneft will be sold to a non-russian major within 12m.

Citizenship and ethnical origin of strategic resources owners do and always did matter (but not for me personally of course:). Why?


03-19-04  optimist: Primo: well... this one is the easiest.. Wait for a year, and see, if Sibneft acquired or not... And.. why did you mention citizenship issue? Does it matter? I just say - no more. If remainig are sold - only to Russia state owned cos.. at 70% discount to current market value. Want a bet?

03-19-04  wally: <carib: Wally: I do not see the point of the joke> it was not a joke. it was sarcasm!

03-19-04  Primo: Opti, spurs <<<<<<TNK was the last... It became a matter of resourse security for Russia. >> Im sure you are right.>>>>> and then we'll hear: <Sibneft> was the last...:-)

The question now is who is the buyer -French or Anglo-Saxons. IMnsHO.

<a matter of resourse security for Russia> TNK major owners - Wekselberg, Blavatnik and Co - got US citizenship a long time ago. Bet you know it.


03-19-04  Cheetah: i repeat:

Baduel esta a punto de meter presos a Chavez, Rangel, Cabello, Garcia Carnicero, Carrasquero, iris varela y cuidado si encuentra a Bin Laden protegido en Miraflores tomando cafe con Tirofijo...


03-19-04  Cheetah: the repression and extorsion continues...this time by Veni's IRS (following the orders from Havana) against television station channel 2:

Seniat sanciona a RCTV con multa de dos mil millones de bolívares Escuche al presidente de 1-BC
Funcionarios de la Superintendencia de Administración Tributaria (Seniat) realizaron una visita a la televisora privada RCTV, para entregarle al presidente de la empresa 1-BC , Marcel Granier, un ‘acta de reparo’ donde le exigen cancelar una multa por 2 mil millones de bolívares, presuntamente por transmitir propaganda política de la oposición venezolana.


03-18-04  Cheetah: President Bush (news - web sites) warned Thursday that terrorists can never be appeased and said there is no safety for any nation that "lives at the mercy of gangsters and mass murderers."

then what are you doing about Cuba ???

what are you doing about the financier of Castro and the FARC ???

get real Bush...


03-18-04  carib: The United States has offered a $25 million reward for information leading to Zawahiri's capture. On Thursday, the House of Representatives doubled the reward for bin Laden's capture, to $50 million.

03-18-04  carib: IHT: <an unusual dialogue took place Tuesday on Deutschlandfunk, a German state radio station, between a reporter and Defense Minister Peter Struck, a Social Democrat, emphasizing how much the Germans wanted to get away from the old classifications in which Zapatero seemed to seek a place. . Q. "Have you been following with sympathy the change in the Spanish government's foreign and security policy." . Struck: "No." ...
. Q. "Do you feel something like a subliminal satisfaction that Spain has now come down on the side of Berlin and Paris?" . Struck: "No. You just can't work with that kind of categorizing, especially in the area of foreign and security policy." . To a question about whether he would prefer that Spain kept its troops in Iraq, the defense minister modulated his directness a sixteenth-turn, replying: "The important thing, naturally, is that an international presence remains in Iraq. The hypothesis of a full-fledged withdrawal, with the Americans going along, would markedly raise instability in the country.">
.

03-18-04  carib: FT: Spanish officials on Thursday expressed optimism that the United Nations would adopt a new resolution that would allow the incoming Socialist party government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero to keep its election promises on Iraq without withdrawing its troops.

Mr Zapatero has come under intense pressure from supporters of the US-led coalition since announcing that Spain would pull its 1,300 soldiers out of Iraq unless they were brought under a UN mandate.

Security Council members are working on a new resolution and the US and UK have indicated they are willing to consider a new resolution before the June 30 deadline for the transfer of sovereignty in Iraq. Geoff Hoon, defence secretary, said on Thursday he understood Spain would be willing to reconsider, given a handover of sovereignty in Iraq and agreement on a new UN resolution.

"It may well be we can satisfy both of Spain's conditions," he said.

Miguel Benzo, a special Spanish envoy to Iraq, said it was probable that a new Security Council resolution that would satisfy the incoming Spanish government's call for an extended UN role in Iraq could be passed by July.


03-18-04  carib: Wally: I do not see the point of the joke. History is full of terrible deeds committed by members of practically all religions (including atheists, of course). Many crimes indeed were committed in the name of religion (again, atheism included). I think nobody intellectually honest can deny that.

03-18-04  apagonazo: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - La Comisión Interamericana de Derechos Humanos (CIDH) alertó sobre una "clara debilidad" en el estado de derecho en Venezuela, en un informe sobre el país sudamericano divulgado el jueves. La situación en Venezuela demuestra "una clara debilidad de los pilares fundamentales para la existencia del Estado de Derecho en un sistema democrático, en los términos de la Convención Americana sobre Derechos Humanos y otros instrumentos internacionales," señaló el informe. La CIDH es un organismo independiente dentro del sistema de la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA). En el pasado Venezuela ha acusado al CIDH de tener una actitud parcializada hacia el país y ha impedido la entrada de misiones del organismo. Venezuela, además, solicitó que no se permita al secretario general del CIDH, el argentino Santiago Cantón, involucrarse en los expedientes que involucren al país, medida que fue rechazada por la directiva del CIDH. En su informe, el CIDH alabó el tratamiento de los derechos humanos en la constitución venezolana, pero observó "preocupantes signos de fragilidad institucional." El organismo menciona la falta de "aplicación íntegra" de la nueva constitución --impulsada por el presidente Hugo Chávez, quien asumió el cargo a finales de 1998-- y la percepción de falta de independencia de los poderes del Estado.Venezuela vive momentos de tensión por los esfuerzos de la oposición de realizar un referendo revocatorio que podría poner fin anticipadamente al mandato de Chávez, a quien la oposición acusa de arruinar al país y de querer establecer un gobierno autoritario. Chávez dijo que las firmas para convocar al referendo estaban plagadas de fraude, pero el Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (TSJ) ordenó validar cientos de miles de firmas cuestionadas que respaldaron una solicitud de referendo contra el presidente.La Sala Electoral del máximo tribunal venezolano sentenció el lunes que 876.017 firmas objetadas por haber sido recogidas con "caligrafía similar" podrían sumarse a las 1,8 millones declaradas válidas por el CNE el 2 de marzo. Eso reavivó las esperanzas de la oposición para el referendo, pues dio un potencial total de 2,7 millones de firmas válidas, por encima del mínimo de 2,4 millones requeridas para convocar la consulta. Sin embargo aún está pendiente un proceso de rectificación de rúbricas dudosas. Por su parte, el Consejo Nacional Electoral solicitó el miércoles al TSJ que deje sin efecto su fallo. Otros signos de "fragilidad institucional," según la CIDH, incluyen la creciente concentración de poder en manos del ejecutivo y la "actuación impune de ciertos grupos civiles armados y de grupos parapoliciales," dijo en un comunicado. La CIDH alertó también sobre "los constantes ataques contra periodistas y medios de comunicación y la tendencia hacia una militarización de la administración publica mediante el rol cada vez mas protagónico de las Fuerzas Armadas."

03-18-04  wally: <carib: Wally: <christians dont do that> they actually did it> really???

03-18-04  carib: Gaucho: I agree. Thanks for the opinion.

03-18-04  carib: Wally: <christians dont do that> they actually did it, and big way. Look to Bosnia.

03-18-04  carib: Savo: what about pre-invasion Afghanistan? that is precisely what happened.

03-18-04  dooper: The Farc have traditionally been anti-religious, in keeping with traditional Marxism.

But according to the secret police, the rebel high command agreed to allow "The Muslim" to set up his suicide squad so that their sworn enemy, hardline President Alvaro Uribe, could be killed by one of the bombers.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/am...


03-18-04  Gaucho1: <Gaucho: were you surprised by BACEN cosmetic rate cut? Does it have a non-cosmetic meaning?>

Yes and no; I didn't expect a rate cut in March, in view of the recent spike in consumer prices, the surge in wholesale prices and the alarmist tone of the last two COPOM minutes. Indeed, the decision to cut won by a narrow margin (5x3) But I did and do think the CB will bring the SELIC rate down substantially this year, so it wasn't a complete surprise. Possibly the reason for cutting in March was that the 1-yr real interest rate was creeping towards 10%, the highest level since December. Some say the CB wielded to political pressure, I don't think so (most of these guys will return to the private sector after their passage in the CB, they wouldn't be willing to tarnish their reputation) My guess is that the 1yr real interest rate can fall safely to around 7% and the real o/n rate can fall below 5%. We shall see...


03-18-04  ruspan: Pax: Nice joke, now we now what is Gnoe "frienship and respect" is worth. Bad month in Iraq, by the way. And bad year. <A year after the war began Iraqi civilians are still being killed every day. Over 10,000 Iraqi civilians are estimated to have been killed since 18 March 2003 as a direct result of the military intervention in Iraq, either during the war or during the subsequent occupation. The figure is an estimate as the authorities are unwilling or unable to catalogue killings.>http://web.amnesty.org/library/Inde...

03-18-04  wally: <ruspan: <U.N. officials said the children were being chased by Serbs>> IMPOSSIBLE! christians would never do such a thing. only muslims commit terror.

03-18-04  PaxWax: Spain as the New York Times sees us: http://www.ucomics.com/glennmccoy/2...

03-18-04  ruspan: http://www.b92.net/english/news/ind...

People is being killed right now.


03-18-04  ruspan: <U.N. officials said the children were being chased by Serbs and drowned in a river that separates the two communities in Mitrovica.>

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/e...

CNN lie, as usual.


03-18-04  ruspan: <No Serbs involved in drowning: UNMIK | 01:58 | Beta

PRISTINA -- Wednesday – UNMIK spokesman Derek Chappell said tonight that the survivor of yesterday’s Ibar River drowning has told his parents that he and three friends entered the river alone and were immediately caught up in the heavy current.

The boy managed to reach the opposite bank of the river, but his three companions were swept away.

The incident happened at about 4.30 p.m. and police began a search of the river about an hour and a half later. Two bodies have been found so far.

Today’s violent incidents around Kosovo were sparked after claims that the boys had been chased into the river by Serbs with a dog.

Chappell told media in Pristina tonight that this was definitely not true according to the account of the surviving boy. >


03-18-04  savonarola: carib...<that wherever they are, they will be hunted down>

ZP's message is very clear. I can't see the confusion. Terrorist will be hunted wherever they are. That does not mean invading countries, throwing bombs at it, killing inocent people, maintaining afterwards a force of occupation and all the rest that we all know.

It means working together with the authorites of the country in question and nothing else. If the authorities of the country do not want any help, then none will be provided. If the authorities of the country are the terrorist themselves, that first has to be proved. As ZP says.. a country can not be invaded <just in case>


03-18-04  Cheetah: "03-18-04 Advice55: They are going to find Bin Laden.... Probably inside a videotape or a peacture, after the next terrorist event happens in USA or Japan.... "

good...hopefully the "peacture' will be in the obituary section of the newspaper...


03-18-04  amigo latino: Does Bush administration fight terror with the Right hand and use terror with the Left hand?

<US senator worried about arms sales

Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut spoke out on the notion that US taxpayers may have paid to train the Haitian rebels who forced the departure of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide from Haiti. The Democratic senator from the Eastern state is questioning whether the US supplied arms to the anti-Aristide rebels. As reported in El Caribe and Hoy newspapers, Dodd speculated that the DR was used to transfer weapons to the rebels for strategic planning of the effort to depose Aristide. El Caribe reports that sources indicate the US had sold the DR 20,000 arms in the past two years. Dodd felt an investigation should be carried out of sources who alleged that 600 armed Haitian men received training in the DR, funded by US sources and called for an inquiry into the US’s role in the Haitian political changeover…….>


03-18-04  carib: Bovespa UP 2,14%....

03-18-04  carib: Zapatero: <“Terrorists have to know that (in Spain) there is going to be a government that is inflexible with terrorism and that wherever they are, they will be hunted down. This has been my policy since I was leader of the opposition.”>. That is a fair and coherent position, IMHO. Out of Iraq, but ready to <hunt terrorists wherever they are>. Ready to move to Waziristan, I presume...


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