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Friday, March 26, '04
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 | Is Venezuela Next? 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Democracy in Latin America might also prove nice if the United States would allow it to occur.
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| Brazils judiciary 03-26-04 (Yahoo) BRAZIL's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, makes friends more readily than enemies. The chief judge of the Supreme Court, Maurício Corrêa,
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| Brazilian Unemployment Rises in February 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Brazil's unemployment rate rose to 12 percent in February, the Brazilian Census Bureau (news - web sites) said Thursday,
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| Chavez Hails Court Referendum Ruling, Foes Cry Foul 03-25-04 (Yahoo) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Wednesday celebrated a Supreme Court ruling against an opposition referendum bid as a victory over "counter-revolutionary" enemies,
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| Trying to Squeeze More Oil and Gas From the Gulf of Mexico 03-25-04 (NY Times) With energy prices climbing to their highest level in more than a decade,
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| Argentina pledges to make progress on debt 03-25-04 (Yahoo) With energy prices climbing to their highest level in more than a decade, amid OPEC threats to cut oil production and concern about soaring demand for natural gas,
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| The Philippines -- Going From Bad to Worse? 03-25-04 (Yahoo) Philippine actor-turned-presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. has a knack for charming the masses. Few audiences, it seems, can resist the charismatic 64-year-old screen idol.
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| Shell, Libya in Oil and Gas Partnership 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Oil giant Royal Dutch/Shell seized on warmer ties between Libya and the West to sign an industrial partnership with the oil-rich country on Thursday,
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| F.B.I. Warns Texas Oil Companies of Potential Terror Attack 03-26-04 (NY Times) The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned the Texas oil industry of potential attacks by Al Qaeda on pipelines and refineries near the time of the November presidential election,
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| Bush and Kerry clash over petrol price rises 03-26-04 (Yahoo) President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and John Kerry (news - web sites), his Democrat challenger for the White House, have found another reason to exchange political barbs: record high petrol prices.
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Newest messages appear on top.
03-26-04
victorn:
gaucho <<Huuuuge importance in the global theatre! >> besides turkey's strategic location bordering the energy reserves of the middle east (and also serving as liaison between europe and the me), turkey also plays a key role in tapping the energy reserves found in the caspian sea region.
03-26-04
Gaucho1:
Dooper, Glutt:
thanks for insights. I am still too ignorant on EU matters to have any strong views.
03-26-04
dooper:
Gaucho:
< 1) EU is a christian's club
2) Greece will veto
3) Germany and France fear ceding power to more populous would be members >
Although I'm certainly no advocate for the EU (aka the Belgian Empire), this is a little cynical. The EU, not unlike the US, is somewhat more legalistic and constitutional (unwritten as yet). Either Turkey qualifies or they don't. They'll make sure that they do....
03-26-04
PaxWax:
<Glutt>: you have made some good points. My question is, why do basically NON-European states have to be in a European Union? I propose the creation of somethintg parallel to the EFTU, but more rigourous, in which all candidate would meet very high standards without being formal members. This would involve free trade and capital flows, adherence to the bulk of EU directives, eventually (to be negotiated) free flow of labour, and all that a European Union implies. I can even envisage joining the €uro-club for some non-European States. Drawbacks? You tell me. Advantages? This could over a medium to long term involve POCCIIA, some Latin American countries, Morocco, Lebanon, Turkey, Azerbaijam etc, without making governing the European Union a Herculean task. This sounds a lot better to me than having Morocco, Turkey, or Tadzhikstan perpetually petitioning the EU for entry at some future date. I envisage a relation rather like der Schweiz with Europe... a close friend is a good friend of Solana, and I must modestly admit that I have already mentioned this proposal to his people.
03-26-04
spaldo:
http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/litera...
Feridun Zaimoglu: <"Priviligierte Partnerschaft" - das ist genau die herablassende Haltung, die die Türken schon immer wütend gemacht hat. Die Deutschen sollten lieber ehrlich sein und zugeben, dass sie schon mit der Wiedervereinigung riesige Probleme zu bewältigen haben. Als Türke weiß ich, dass der Beitritt ein Schlag für die Islamisten wäre und ein Fest für die modern orientierten Türken. Aus dieser Sicht will ich den Beitritt unbedingt. Als Deutscher bin ich vorsichtiger. Wenn der Beitritt ein wirtschaftliches Fiasko wie die Einheit wird, dann tun sich auch die Türken keinen Gefallen damit. Wie auch immer man sich entscheidet, für oder gegen die Aufnahme - in jedem Fall werden große Zweifel bleiben. >
03-26-04
Glutt:
I doubt EU or US would like to lose Turkey only because Greeks are so proud and French are so snobbish. I also doubt Christianity would be at risk in the case besides the fact that some EU members are already multi religious places and acceptance of Turks does not mean imposing Islam in Germany or France. Rather I suppose Algerians in France or Moroccans in Spain would pose a bigger long term danger of radicalizing Muslim minority society in their places. IMHO
03-26-04
Glutt:
I agree with Torgay, EU membership has big weight and EU together with US would like to see Turkey as westernized Muslim state rather than let it slip to Islamist East. For this reason I suppose that Turk gentleman who spoken to Gaucho underestimated the factor of political will on the Western part. True, there are many problems but talks can last longer and Turkey knows it has little chance to join together with Romania and Bulgaria, rather wait for some other candidates to emerge from Balkans for third wave. Besides if big EU want Turkey very much then I guess they will persuade Greece and Cyprus to be more soft on the issue and there are plenty tools how to do this. As regards fundamentals I believe Gaucho and Turkish investor ignored one important for debt thing, namely debt to exports ratio and service debt to export ratio for external debt. Further one may look at history of defaults of Turkey and Brazil to see what each of them merits. I also would not overrate Brazil on fundamentals which are vulnerable and subject to change while I know Brazil still has service capacity constrained and depends on rollovers no less than Turkey. That said I believe in short term Brazil spreads merit a better opportunity than Turkish spreads but long term I am bearish both. PS: locals are usually more bearish when it is time to be bullish and visa versa IMHO. Does not appy to Gaucho though who was bullish Brazil at time when many were bearish.
03-26-04
Gaucho1:
Torgay: this Turkish investor is very sceptical of EU acceptance. He mentioned three points:1) EU is a christian's club
2) Greece will veto
3) Germany and France fear ceding power to more populous would be members
03-26-04
PaxWax:
"...growth projections for Argentina during the 1990s by the authorities,
the Fund, and market participants were, in hindsight, too optimistic,
leading to too complacent a view of Argentina's fiscal performance..."- IMF Executive Board discussing lessons from the crisis in Argentina.
03-26-04
torgay:
Gaucho: <Huuuuge importance in the global theatre! > Not a huuuuge importance but compared with brazil more importance at the moment. The turkish economy is linked to a possible membership to the EU. If the European will give a perspective in December 2004, we will see 30 % higher prices in turkish bonds even they are too expensive at these levels..
03-26-04
Glutt:
lets postpone weekend talk.
03-26-04
Primo:
hm -should be read "dont love outsiders". BTW Israel is an example of "traditional" society either.
03-26-04
Primo:
well Glutt you're right on this issue - "tradional" societies are closed and love outsiders. So what - nuke the monkeys?
03-26-04
ozymiani:
< Glutt: Tell me whom they love? i am afraid the list will be not long.>: I disagree. If they loved themselves, they wouldn't love death so fondly, and they wouldn't surrender freedom so lightheartedly.maybe they don't love anybody.
03-26-04
spurs:
Ah yes, very similar to Woody Allens comment about Masturbation being sex with someone you truly love.
03-26-04
Gaucho1:
<They both march to the US band in exchange for financial dole (and military hardware).>Hmm... not what we saw last year just before the Iraq invasion
03-26-04
Glutt:
rogue, unfortunately not.
primo, and tell me whom they love? i am afraid the list will be not long. As one my friend used to sing jokingly: Kogo ljublju, sebia ljublju, ja u sebia takoi horoshiji, mileji ne budet nikogo. (in English would sound: Who I love, I love myself, myself is very pretty myself, will never find a better one.)
03-26-04
Primo:
<60% of Pakistanis love Osama> IMHO in the first place they dont love GNoE, hence they love Osama et al.
03-26-04
Patient-Trader:
Wally, I hate to mention it:
Likely al-Qaida Tape Seeks Pakistan Coup http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...BTW: Looking at the recent Pakistani "crack-down" on some "high-value" Al-Queda members which had ZERO result I find my suspicions confirmed that the Pakistani military is still supporting the Taliban / Al Queda covertly. The prospect that Al Queda could topple the Pakistani government sends shivers down my spine. As mentioned before, 60% of Pakistanis love Osama.
03-25-04
roguetrader18:
any views on MIRKQ , Mirant Corp and Mirant Americas?
03-25-04
victorn:
amigo knows very well how it feels to <march to the US band>. :-)
03-25-04
dooper:
BBC Europe
< "Unfortunately strange things happen," Mr Marchuk said in an interview for the Ukrainian newspaper Den. "We are currently looking for several hundred missiles. They were decommissioned, but we can't find them.>
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/eu...
03-25-04
amigo latino:
<Gaucho1: <Turkey is very different to Brazil and has important role in global politics>
Huuuuge importance in the global theatre! …..>Turkey, like Pakistan, has a role assigned by US's geopolitical considerations. They both march to the US band in exchange for financial dole (and military hardware).
03-25-04
carib:
Building a strong "strategic partnership" with China is a pillar of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva's foreign policy. Beijing and Brasilia likely have different perceptions of the geopolitical importance of their growing partnership. Brazil perceives Beijing as a key player in a global multipolar network of regional powers aligned against U.S. hegemony. However, China sees itself someday displacing the United States as the world's foremost superpower -- and Brazil is just another piece on Beijing's geopolitical chessboard.On a three-day visit to Beijing this week, Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim hailed the geopolitical importance of what he described as the growing "strategic partnership" between his country and China. Amorim was in Beijing doing the advance work for President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva's state visit to China in May.
Brazil's government views closer trade and political relations with China as a pillar of its foreign policy. China also clearly views Brazil as an important economic and political associate in advancing Beijing's global geopolitical interests.
03-25-04
Gaucho1:
<Turkey is very different to Brazil and has important role in global politics>Huuuuge importance in the global theatre!
03-25-04
Gaucho1:
<Gaucho, perhaps the Brazilians love it this way. The Brazilian institutions seem to do quite nicely during each crisis.>Indeed. The system is messy and inefficient, but it works!
< I suspect that the majority of Brazilian banks couldn't survive a low yield environment. >
I think they would adapt quite well-- for starters, they could start lending to the private sector, where yields will remain fat for a long time to come...
03-25-04
Gaucho1:
< the simple answer is "faith can move mountains (and bond prices)". >Interestingly, locals in Turkey and Brazil seem the least faithful!
03-25-04
Gaucho1:
<Everyone got depressed with GDP growth numbers of 1Q04, the political
crisis is a non-issue!!!>Foxito,
1Q04 may disappoint but it will not be known till April! As for political crisis, I couldn't agree more with you and disagree more with my freaked-out compatriots: Dirceu's "should I stay or should I go" a huge non-event! Brazilian domestic politics are near irrelevant at the moment and are just an excuse for a shake-out in an over-crowded market, IMO.
03-25-04
victorn:
carib, i don't know why, but i would say that a separate definition takes precedence over an aumentativo. i don't know what the aumentativo of rata is. perhaps ratota?a couple of examples where the on is not aumentativo: pelo vs pelón, pelota vs pelotón, etc.
03-25-04
alois25:
<even the mentality of canarios is the closest to latam.> Quite right victorn. Excuse me. I'm hitting the hay. night.
03-25-04
alois25:
bye. Fun talking to you. I'll sleep like a lazy rat now. Good night.
03-25-04
victorn:
alois, as you know, canario is the closest in spain to latin american spanish, since so many canarios went to latam. even the mentality of canarios is the closest to latam.
03-25-04
carib:
Victorn: I am puzzled. If Raton comes from Rato...and the <on> suffix means <big>...how come the said raton is indeed small? At least my mistake appears to be understandable.
And I am not an expert in rodents...
03-25-04
wally:
<Have you ever heard of a "guagua"?> it means "yes" in Tiv language.
03-25-04
alois25:
victorn <The interesting part about this word is that they don't know where it comes from with the exception of the andean definition, which is quechua, but now castellanizado.> I admire your research which is far beond my means. But I can reveal the ethymological origin of the word "guagua" in the canary islands: Busses (autobusses) used to have a horn next to the rearmirror. The driver would stretch out his hand at every narrow bend and squeeze the horn: Quuuaaa, quuaaaa, guaaa guaaa, guagau, guagua. Canarios simply found it too difficult to say "autobus" so they said "guagua". Bus-Stations are still officially namened "estación de guagua" on the canary islands. Believe it or not. It's true.
03-25-04
victorn:
carib, no, ratones are nice friendly animals. rats are not. ratero = thief = argy govt. note that ratero is also derived from rata, just like ratón.
03-25-04
victorn:
according to my dictionary, ratón comes from rato (which is a valid spanish word synonymous of ratón). in turn rato comes from rata. so ratón has the same origin as rata. a spanish degeneration. :-)
03-25-04
carib:
Consequence of the <rat discussion>...should we conclude that Argentinos are <Ratones> rather than <Ladrones>?
I would prefer to stick with Ladrones, Ladronia, etc etc, rather than Ratones, Ratonia...
Because Ladronvagna sounds better than Ratonvagna...and we do not want the next director of the IMF to be Argentino... :-)
03-25-04
victorn:
alois, if you think that canario is childish then you would say the same aobut latam spanish. guagua is tricky as it has different definitions in different countries. so i need the dictionary to help me. The interesting part about this word is that they don't know where it comes from with the exception of the andean definition, which is quechua, but now castellanizado. a simple word like guagua means different things in canarias, cuba & r dominicana, perú & ecuador.guagua1.
(Etim. disc.).
1. f. Cosa baladí.
2. f. Can. y Ant. Vehículo automotor que presta servicio urbano o interurbano en un itinerario fijo.
3. f. Cuba y R. Dom. Nombre genérico de numerosas especies de insectos hemípteros, pequeños, de color blanco o gris, que atacan a numerosas plantas, especialmente a los cítricos, y llegan a destruirlos.
de ~.
1. loc. adv. coloq. de balde.
guagua2.
(Del quechua wáwa).
1. f. Á. Andes. Niño de pecho. En Ecuador, u. c. com.
2. f. Perú. Pan dulce con forma de niño.
03-25-04
alois25:
victorn <take the names of cities and how spanish "castellaniza": varsovia, ginebra> The french can beat spaniards any time at at "frenchising" foreign cities, drinks etc...
03-25-04
victorn:
carib & alois, i know that spanish is very odd. take the names of cities and how spanish "castellaniza": varsovia, ginebra, etc.
03-25-04
victorn:
carib i think i see what the problem is. everythink is ok, then. rat = ratto = rata. however, a large rat is rattone. so you assumed that ratón is a large rat in spanish. but ratón is a separate word (mouse) for us, not a large rat.on the other hand, topo in spanish is another similar rodent but not a mouse. so in italian, apparently, you only have one word for both types of rodents. for us, a ratón is not a topo. similar but not the same.
<Beats me why in Spanish> spanish is the least latin of the latin languages because of the arab influence.
03-25-04
alois25:
carib <but where does "raton" (the small) come from? The mouse, in latin, was mus (muris)...> according to my books the word actually originates from an ancient indian languages. "musnati". And it means "he/she steals". So we are talking about thiefs. That brings us back to ladrones and Argentina and all that crap. :~))))
03-25-04
carib:
Alois: maybe...but where does "raton" (the small) come from? The mouse, in latin, was mus (muris)... :-)
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