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Friday, March 26, '04
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 | Is Venezuela Next? 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Democracy in Latin America might also prove nice if the United States would allow it to occur.
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| Brazils judiciary 03-26-04 (Yahoo) BRAZIL's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, makes friends more readily than enemies. The chief judge of the Supreme Court, Maurício Corrêa,
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| Brazilian Unemployment Rises in February 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Brazil's unemployment rate rose to 12 percent in February, the Brazilian Census Bureau (news - web sites) said Thursday,
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| Chavez Hails Court Referendum Ruling, Foes Cry Foul 03-25-04 (Yahoo) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Wednesday celebrated a Supreme Court ruling against an opposition referendum bid as a victory over "counter-revolutionary" enemies,
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| Trying to Squeeze More Oil and Gas From the Gulf of Mexico 03-25-04 (NY Times) With energy prices climbing to their highest level in more than a decade,
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| Argentina pledges to make progress on debt 03-25-04 (Yahoo) With energy prices climbing to their highest level in more than a decade, amid OPEC threats to cut oil production and concern about soaring demand for natural gas,
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| The Philippines -- Going From Bad to Worse? 03-25-04 (Yahoo) Philippine actor-turned-presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. has a knack for charming the masses. Few audiences, it seems, can resist the charismatic 64-year-old screen idol.
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| Shell, Libya in Oil and Gas Partnership 03-26-04 (Yahoo) Oil giant Royal Dutch/Shell seized on warmer ties between Libya and the West to sign an industrial partnership with the oil-rich country on Thursday,
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| F.B.I. Warns Texas Oil Companies of Potential Terror Attack 03-26-04 (NY Times) The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned the Texas oil industry of potential attacks by Al Qaeda on pipelines and refineries near the time of the November presidential election,
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| Bush and Kerry clash over petrol price rises 03-26-04 (Yahoo) President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and John Kerry (news - web sites), his Democrat challenger for the White House, have found another reason to exchange political barbs: record high petrol prices.
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Newest messages appear on top.
03-26-04
Amateur:
In the meantime, USTs took some beating today, they are still sky-high but should this mark a change in trend, EMD will suffer. How are Bras, Rus & Tur doing today?
03-26-04
alois25:
carib <Grand-ducal sources report it's still uncertain if the (in)famous EU savings tax directive will actually enter into force on 1-1-2005, as scheduled. A positive decision by june 30 is still not taken for granted.> ...And seems increasingly unlikely. At least all indications lead to that conclusion. The EU savings tax directive imlpies that various international savings tax havens comply with a (vague) set of rules. IMHO that will be impossible to achieve in time by June 30th. In addition to that, german finance minister Hans €ichel (Juan Pullo) does no longer seem eager to loose Billions of €uros by implementing his "part" of EU savings tax legislation. IMHO there will be no EU savings tax directive in 2005 and therefore no "grandfather clause".
03-26-04
leo:
Carib the directive seems to apply only to individuals and not to corporation hence no problem for individual to biuld up a corporate vehicle should the directive be effective at some stage......
03-26-04
carib:
Rolf: in a way, DR 06 prices (now ex-coupon, I guess) imply a rescheduling of that bond is already discounted: the DR 06 price is not much different from the DR 13 price, but the YTM is 600 bp higher.
It would be nice to get an Uru- style restructuring...but I doubt it will be so friendly...
In the case of Uru, with hindsight, the best bond to hold before the restructuring was the 05 dentist.
Are we going to get a bis in DR?
03-26-04
rolfkoch:
6. Late interest payment
Franco Uccelli of Bear Stearns reports that it has received official confirmation that the DR will not make the US$23.75 million interest payment on its 2006 bond, due as of 27 March. Uccelli says the authorities will resort to the 30-day grace period to consult with its Paris Club creditors before making any definitive bond payment decisions. He says the ability to make the payment is not the issue, as the current central government deposits held at the Central Bank are sufficient to pay the total.
Uccelli indicates that face-to-face meetings with the Paris Club are scheduled to begin on 12 April. He says on the agenda is the reconciling of the DR’s public debt statistics to ensure that negotiations are conducted by all parties on the same basis. The process then moves on to the decision-making stage, during which the contents of the Paris Club’s debt-relief offer should be determined, as should the conditions attached to the offer.
According to Uccelli, the Dominican government seems to be willing to satisfy the Paris Club’s comparability of treatment requirement in exchange for bilateral debt relief. He feels this implies that some sort of private debt restructuring is likely. He explains that the degree of flexibility that the Dominican government will have to produce a market-friendly restructuring proposal will depend on the severity of the terms the Paris Club may impose and speculates that in addition to short-term cash flow relief, the government may seek to push back bond maturities.
As reported in El Caribe, the technical manager of the Central Bank, Apolinar Veloz, explains that the agreement with the IMF stipulates that the country finance US$320 million of the balance of payments, funds that would be obtained with the rescheduling of the Paris Club debt. He said that the savings achieved with the postponement of the expiration dates of the foreign debt, would be used to cover the quasi-fiscal debt of the Central Bank.
Economists Pedro Silverio of the PUCMM and Rafael Camilo, former National Planning director under the Leonel Fernandez government, told El Caribe that the benefits the country would derive from the renegotiation of the debt are few, given that it is short-term debt.
03-26-04
carib:
Grand-ducal sources report it's still uncertain if the (in)famous EU savings tax directive will actually enter into force on 1-1-2005, as scheduled. A positive decision by june 30 is still not taken for granted. Anyway, Grand-ducal banks are already preparing a menu of tax-free solutions to offer to their clients, in case the directive is finally confirmed. Business as usual, hence, in any case. Any colores have info or opinions on the (boring) subject?
In theory, there should be a positive impact for bonds issued before 2001 (because they remain tax free)...but in practice I doubt much will actually change...
03-26-04
manya:
Brazil: popularity poll number is out:
Lula popularity:-9% from 69% to 60%
goverment popularity:-12%. from 66% to 54%
Expectations: -5% to -15%...not the big 15% to 20% drop some were calling for earlier
03-26-04
alois25:
glutt <fantasies of Engelsberger to implement social bonds> A case of mad cows desease.
03-26-04
Goldbug:
Gold keeps climbin'...
03-26-04
Glutt:
wally <In related news, a group of German bondholders (IGA) announced its willingness to accept the growth-linked bonds the government plans to offer to private creditors. IGA representatives will meet Economy ministry officials on April 15.> sounds more like BS... at least I know IGA never told they accept GDP linked notes except for fantasies of Engelsberger to implement social bonds which was shelved away for good by other memebers of IGA organising committee.
03-26-04
victorn:
fox, <breaking all sorts of contracts,> it's the right thing to do. the argy govt cares about the welfare of its citizens, unlike the dr govt that only cares about greedy and greasy foreign investors, while keeping the dominican population in the dark, with constant blackouts. shame on those dr bondholders. :-)
03-26-04
carib:
Fox: contract breaking is a <no blainer> for Ladrones... but in the long term, without investment, they will get <apagones> anyway, and no investment will be done to lose money, IMHO. Hence I expect tariffs to be raised, despite the local cult that considers private (non political) profits as sinful.
03-26-04
Fox:
<Ladronia now likely to experience <apagones>...> Wrong Caribinho! The ones that will have <apaganes> are Non-Ladrones Chile & Uruguay.Ladronia said that they will stop exporting Gas, breaking all sorts of contracts, rules, commitments,.etc... As expected!!
03-26-04
Fox:
Cirun on ELP I will look into it it looks very oversold actually.
03-26-04
carib:
Ladronia now likely to experience <apagones>...and Ladrones still amazed by the fact that utilities are unwilling to invest new money in energy production if sale prices are kept below production costs...the greedy bastards, they are daring to suggest private companies should be "profitable"...outrageous!
03-26-04
wally:
<Oum Kaltoum> maschallah! you know her songs <pax>???
03-26-04
cirun:
<Fox<BRAZIL>Im starting to think that the it is worthwhile to go back to the market,<<<>>>>> Do You consider <ELP> Improving market along with some domestic energy market reform could give some voodoo (?). It has tested the 3.50 several times but did not go under that level...
03-26-04
Cheetah:
Televisa and Univision are getting ready for a merger...mua mua to all the sexy mejicanitas de telenovelas...
03-26-04
Advice55:
Today does not seem to be a good day to play on the sell side of Brazil...Think we might see better prices to sell on monday...
But it is just a short term rebound that I am talking about....
03-26-04
spurs:
Just to clarify, before Ozy takes offense. I have nothing against Israel being in the Eurovision song contest. Although I do think that Turkeys efforts have all been Turkeys.On a more business related theme, I am getting the distinct impression that European interest rates are being manipulated by some of the larger European hedge funds. Huge amounts of pressure coming from these guys, who are planting stories in the media, suggesting that the French govt is going to "instruct Trichet" to cut etc.
On an EM theme, I note with interest that some of the larger "real" money institutions in London are perplexed as to why Brazil is weak and Ecuador is strong. Their thinking is that Guano is a "banana republic" - well bananas are the third largest export, while Brazil is a "good market". I just thought the colores might be amused to hear this....
03-26-04
carib:
EU-Tur: I do not think the assumption <either they qualify, or they dont> is correct. It's eminently a political issue, and not only at EU level, but also national ones. Remember Maastricht? Italy did not respect the criterias, ans still the lira got into the Euro. Denmark's referendum scuttled the process for several years, even if Dk has zero political weight... Far too early to say, IMHO.
Personally, I am in favor of turkish membership, but this is irrelevant.
Pax's solution would be practical, and was discussed already a decade ago,
03-26-04
PaxWax:
<<Schpuuurs> ~ Why is Israel in the Eurovision song contest?> I personally would prefer Oum Kaltoum from the Lebanon, but unfortunately she has gone to a better world.
03-26-04
PaxWax:
Thinking of getting the treasured "GREEN CARD?" ...here are 8 not-so-terrific places in the States where you won't want to settle:
http://www.forbes.com/2004/03/17/cz...
03-26-04
amigo latino:
<Spurs:….The pressure to admit them into the EU comes from the US. The geopolitical attractions of Turkey are only important to the geopolitical puppet masters in Washington. And of course they dont have to shell out hard cash to Ankara. So of course they have been beating up the EU to admit the Turks……>When US sneezes, Europe catches cold and Japan catches pnuemonia !
03-26-04
torgay:
wally: i dont see any problems on the turkish part. For turks the reunification means membership in the EU, more wealth and more freedom. I see the problems on the greek part because they really don't want a reunification. I dont see a reunification either but reasoned by the greeks.
This is very important for the relations EU - TR. the turks will say : we have done every thing, we have accepted the Annan plan but the greek side doesn't want us...
03-26-04
spurs:
<My question is, why do basically NON-European states have to be in a European Union>Why is Israel in the Eurovision song contest?
Howabout if we just admit the European part of Turkey?
03-26-04
wally:
<FINANCE SECRETARY ADMITS DEBT OFFER MIGHT CHANGE. The government admitted
during yesterday’s meetings with local bondholders associations that it will be flexible with
regard to the Dubai proposal. Finance Secretary Guillermo Nielsen described the aim of
the meeting as “a first step in which to listen to all bondholders’ opinions while the
organizer banks continue working in a new proposal”. According to local newspapers,
<local pension funds offered the government to accept reductions in interest rates and
not to collects any debt services until 2010 in exchange for not suffering nominal haircuts>.
In related news, a group of German bondholders (IGA) announced its willingness to
accept the growth-linked bonds the government plans to offer to private creditors. IGA
representatives will meet Economy ministry officials on April 15.>
03-26-04
spurs:
<Although I'm certainly no advocate for the EU (aka the Belgian Empire), this is a little cynical. The EU, not unlike the US, is somewhat more legalistic and constitutional (unwritten as yet). Either Turkey qualifies or they don't. They'll make sure that they do.... >1) There is a reason why it was called the Treaty of Rome. Brussels is the 4th Rome.
2) The EU has never shown any enthusiams for having Turkey join the club. Too poor, too populous, too muslim, and too Middle Eastern.
3) The pressure to admit them into the EU comes from the US. The geopolitical attractions of Turkey are only important to the geopolitical puppet masters in Washington. And of course they dont have to shell out hard cash to Ankara. So of course they have been beating up the EU to admit the Turks.
Not that I have anything against the Turks, but I dont want to pay them more for their agricultural products, or pay taxes towards improving Ankaras housing. So I wish the EU would tell the US to admit them into Nafta. Sadly the EU has yet to show any cojones, other than Mr Monti. I think there should be a European version of "Kill Bill" staring Super Mario!
03-26-04
wally:
<ALL sides involved in the Cyprus talks in Switzerland were last night waiting for news from Brussels as key issues related to the talks shifted to the EU capital yesterday.President Tassos Papadopoulos left Burgenstock for Brussels shortly after midday to attend the EU heads of government conference, which is also being attended by Turkish and Greek leaders. Cyprus was expected to be discussed on the sidelines of the meeting.
The Turkish side is seeking permanent derogations from the EU acquis in the Annan plan for a Cyprus settlement, and it is widely believed that Ankara is waiting for something from Brussels before the Burgenstock talks can go any further.
Serdar Denktash, the son of Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who is representing the Turkish Cypriots in Switzerland along with ‘prime minister’ Mehmet Ali Talat, said yesterday his side was not expecting something “solid” out of the Brussels meeting – “but at least an indication,” he said.
Sources close to Serdar Denktash said that if the Turkish side did not get the derogations it wanted from Brussels, the Turkish Cypriot leadership would campaign for a ‘no’ to the Annan plan on its return to Cyprus.
The Greek Cypriot side will not accept any permanent derogations to the Annan plan, a Greek Cypriot official said yesterday.
Information out of Brussels last night said the Greek side wanted a reference to Cyprus, calling for all Cypriots to “enjoy the rights and benefits of EU accession”. However, diplomats there said EU partners were reluctant to go along with this because they did not want anything to upset the Burgenstock process.<<<>>>>
http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/
03-26-04
wally:
<torgay> do you really see a chance that Rauf Denktas gets going and there will be a solution till may? i see the chance as zero.
03-26-04
torgay:
All in all : I recommend to buy TR Bonds if there is a solution in the cyprus issue next month and to sell if not.My forecast/target for TR 30 until August 04 : USD 175,- if we get a positive result from the cyprus negotiations. If not : USD 120,-
03-26-04
amigo latino:
Son muy guapos novios Argentinos ? Watch out Cheetaah!<Novio celoso dejó en estado vegetativo a un hombre..>
http://www.losandes.com.ar/2004/032...
03-26-04
Glutt:
<Sorry Rogue, wrong forum, here we prefer to talk about Osama, and whether he is "loved".> HAHAHAHAA....good one
03-26-04
wally:
<My question is, why do basically NON-European states have to be in a European Union?>why do countries of the former Warsaw Pact have to be in NATO?
03-26-04
dooper:
< roguetrader18: any views on MIRKQ , Mirant Corp and Mirant Americas?>Sorry Rogue, wrong forum, here we prefer to talk about Osama, and whether he is "loved".
:-)
I like some of the schweinkram (not the shtok). Do you have any picks?
03-26-04
Glutt:
Meanwhile zEuro weakening rises logical question: is this a reversal or just temporary setback. I still believe zEuro done its best and we may have seen all time highs already. Of course as prudent zEuro bear I have my opinion biased :~)
03-26-04
victorn:
dooper <They'll make sure that they do> would this require for the eu to stop subsidizing spain so they can start subsidizing turkey? a veery baaad idea. :-)
03-26-04
Primo:
sorry Glutt but i also cant imagine EU without kebabs (which i love☺
03-26-04
victorn:
gaucho, turkey's bosporus straits are also important.
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