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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, April 2, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

George Bushs Fiscal Finger of Fate Inflates Gas Prices 04-02-04 (Yahoo) Gasoline and heating oil prices in the U.S. are at an all-time high and rising. But it may surprise Americans to learn that in Europe, they've essentially remained steady.

Gas prices around the world 04-02-04 (Yahoo) Gasoline prices in the United States, which have recently hit record highs, are actually much lower than in many countries. A few countries, like Venezuela have prices that are far lower.

Study: Pricing Less Competitive Online 04-02-04 (Yahoo) A study by MIT finds that the Internet, where customers can easily comparison shop, is actually less price competitive than traditional store retailers.

Whats That Sound? 04-02-04 (NY Times) I hadn't been to Mexico since 1996, so it definitely caught my ear when I started to hear two non-Spanish words on this trip that I'd never heard here before: "China" and "India."

Globalization Index 04-02-04 (Yahoo) One way to understand something is to measure it. But when the subject is globalization, that's a daunting task.

Jobs outlook depends on point of view 04-02-04 (Yahoo) Like so much of life, interpreting data about jobs and the economy depends on whether you choose to see your glass as half-full or half-empty.

Economists enter war of words on outsourcing 04-02-04 (Financial Times) For economists it is an article of faith that it is good for the US economy to move some jobs to countries where costs are lower.

LATIN AMERICA

Argentine governor faces arrest 04-02-04 (BBC) An Argentine judge has ordered the arrest of the governor of the northern province of Santiago del Estero.

Documents Shed New Light on US Support for 1964 Brazilian Coup 04-02-04 (Yahoo) A newly declassified audiotape and documents released here Wednesday 40 years after the 1964 coup that installed military rule in Brazil show that then US President Lyndon Johnson was directly involved in the decision to back the coup forces, if necessary.

Venezuela Workers Who Backed Recall Fired 04-01-04 (Yahoo) Computer engineer Ingrid Sanchez, 32, signed a December petition demanding a recall vote for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. In February, she was fired from the government water company.

Energy Scarce as Argentina Faces Winter 04-01-04 (NY Times) UENOS AIRES, March 30 - The nascent recovery that has lifted the Argentine economy over the last year is being threatened by a shortage of electricity and gas,

Brazil unveils investment plan to defuse unrest 04-01-04 (Yahoo) Brazil's left-leaning government on Wednesday announced a R$15bn ($5.1bn, �2.8bn, EU4.2bn) investment and financing plan for industrial development amid growing demands for more aggressive social and economic policies.

AFRICA

Ice Cream Economics 04-01-04 (Yahoo) Milk prices are up, Madagascar's vanilla crop is thin and chocolate is tougher to come by in west Africa.

OIL PRICES

Finding cures for an oil-addicted nation 04-02-04 (Yahoo) The main culprit behind today's record price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States isn't OPEC, or the Bush administration, or Congress.

Saudis Defend OPEC Decision to Cut Output 04-02-04 (Yahoo) Saudi Arabia on Thursday defended OPEC (news - web sites)'s decision to cut oil output, claiming there was an oversupply and blaming price rises on speculators and concerns about Iraq

OPEC Rift Puts Credibility on Trial 04-02-04 (Yahoo) Emerging discord in OPEC (news - web sites) over the political wisdom of supporting high oil prices will sharpen scrutiny on whether the cartel's internal supply discipline is starting to crack.

Oil Shortage? 04-01-04 (Yahoo) Saudi Arabia: There's plenty in the ground, but it won't be easy to get. The kingdom may need major new foreign investors. Will it dare open up?

Newest messages appear on top.

04-02-04 carib: Amigo: I am not sure what you mean. Sun appears to have a market cap bigger than its annual sales. GX at 20$ has a market cap that is a small fraction of sales. Should GX market cap equal sales...we would make a bundle!

04-02-04 amigo latino: Sun to receive $1.6 bn from Microsoft! <
Struggling server maker Sun Microsystems Inc. reached a sweeping, $1.6 billion settlement with Microsoft Corp. and said it plans to cooperate with its longtime nemesis, a company it had branded an unrepentant monopolist.......> http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

Can any body tell why Sun with $10 bn in sales and tons of cash is worth $5/share while GlobalCrossing loser is worth $70 (in the future)?.

(I hold GX stock and do not own any Sun stock)

04-02-04 Glutt: opti, how reporting currency should preclude someone from speculating on FX, I know plenty of Germans and Austrians, whose main FX domicile is Eur, and who made plenty on Yen loans some years ago, they even financed RE purchases in Yens. At the end they had a nice gain and of course reported that in their currency to themselves and to their account managers.

04-02-04 victorn: glutt, take iraq. why should europe invade iraq? that is an american-israeli problem.

04-02-04 carib: Opti: <base currency>...true. In my case, I have split/personality...dual currency base... life is diff ... :-(

04-02-04 Glutt: Vic <but given the hate there is for the u.s.> I agree the world hates US but politics is a pragmatic thing where benefits are counted and hate is controlled. Besides Europe as a matter of fact is not Muslim, but Christian, and concerning its interests is aligned to US, not East or South, so why they have to spoil relations with US in absence of pragmatic reasons? I would say rather to the contrary, EU wants to have again good relations and hopes they can once Bush leaves and someone with better brains succeeds him, they would not risk do something hostile to US because open hostility would be very different to opposition and any new US leader would pick at that as well. IMvvvHO

04-02-04 optimist: Carib: ok.. to me its amatter of what is your "base" (to me - reporting) - currency...

04-02-04 victorn: amigo :-))

04-02-04 amigo latino: <victorn: <Un h�mero de hace 370 millones de a�os revela que las extremidades surgieron para moverse en el agua>.........>I

If we were to get back such humero, we would all be swimming to PR in no time and leave Mejia solito to enjoy the blackouts!

04-02-04 carib: Opti: during the last three years, the $ moved mostly down against Eurotz. Given the fact I mostly hold $ denominated assets, and do some booking in �, not coverning the FX risk on such accounts would have resulted in substantial losses. Hence I started some $ forward sales against �, which always produced a gain, and were always rolled over. In practice, the $ I held in 2001...are still worth about 1,15 � each, given the FX cover deals. My opinion is that the Eurotz above 1,2 is clearly overshooting...but markets do overshoot, so greed pushed me to wait above 1,3 to close the full $ forward sale position. As often happens, my greed made me miss the actual top. But given the sentiment on the $ appears to have turned, I rolled over only part of my FX forwards in march. Of course, if the � goes down to 1,15 now, the forwards I rolled over will end with a loss...but the $ assets I hold will appreciate by an equal %...so no big deal for accounts booked in �. Life is quite easy if one thinks and books in only one reference currency...more complicated if one is schyzo in currency terms... :-)

04-02-04 Glutt: opti, nu ti ehidna... I understand you and agree although I am bit surprised with your <91% in $>, are you so $ bullish or just find forwards to be outrageously expensive?

04-02-04 Glutt: Btw, as volatility will be rising you as former banker know that IF I take at misfortunate moment then my balls will be sliced off no matter how right I would be on long term trend, it is a question of positioning levels, not just saying obvious things. Today market shoot like a rocket so who knows if some may cover up after the weekend?

04-02-04 optimist: Gluty: i m too dumb... I lightened up Treasuries few weeks ago, and placed buy orders again today... currencies - i m sitting with 9% eur 91% dollars now.. EUr invested in Ven08.. As simple as that..

04-02-04 victorn: fox if the $ can become overvalued vs the �, there is no reason why the opposite can not happen, as it has happened in the pre-� era. the current exchange rate = 134 pesetas/$. not overvalued.

04-02-04 Glutt: Fox, you kidding, I am just little boy spreading simple ideas, nothing cool I am afraid but thanks for warm words.

04-02-04 Glutt: ops, opti is here... opti amigo, would you do what i suggest?

04-02-04 Fox: Cool Glutt very cool!

04-02-04 Glutt: ouch, fat fingers, <futures>

04-02-04 Fox: < fox 1.24 is still not an overvalued � exchange rate.> SIP, YES!

But you may see a 1.24 if some improved data comes out of Europe.

Mid term sip, yes 1.24 is overvalue.

04-02-04 Glutt: Fox, you may be right about stop-loss which I personally see at 1,21, if 1,20 gets broken they we will see more selling on Euro IMHO. However I tend to agree with carib that Euro have seen its top and so expecting such to repeat would not be wise. As though all of us know currencies are very difficult game and everything can happen. I myself see things as 50/50 EUR/$ now and 30/70 in six to twelve months. May be a play in futures market � buying UST features and selling $ forwards. Ah?

04-02-04 victorn: glutt <I suppose such a NO will surely serve no good for EU-US relations> i agree, but given the hate there is for the u.s. around the world, why are these relations so important? eu should try to distance itself from the u.s..

04-02-04 optimist: Carib: forgive my ignorance.. But in case you do FX through forwards, ealy march you could "rollover" the forward at the then previaling rates, no? I mean, should EUR go much lower by the expiration of your deal, "forward" transaction would really hurt .. Hurt much more than options would do. Lets say - you would be oblidged to buy Euros which you dont really need at, say, 1. 25 while current rate is.. whatever - 1.15.. Whats the sense?

04-02-04 victorn: fox 1.24 is still not an overvalued � exchange rate.

04-02-04 Glutt: Carib, you surely right, still my argument is: EU cannot promise forever a marriage with Turkey, one day they will have to marry or tell good bye. Look at global politics, until recent there was never so big challenge as concerns division between West and Muslim worlds, today there is such challenge. Turkey in this place stands at cross-roads as it hopes to be invited into the club of rich, but its patience is running out particularly because former socialistic states run ahead it and Turkey is left far behind, so it is time for answering question and if nothing happens Turkey will clearly take this as NO. IMvvvHO� so puzzle is really difficult. Btw, I suppose such a NO will surely serve no good for EU-US relations but may be I am mistaken.

04-02-04 carib: Glutt: it's a very complicated political puzzle. In such case, IMHO, it's unlike one gets complete rationality. Shit happens.

04-02-04 Fox: <�> Caribinho with all this fuzz about dissapointing Euro growth & today�s US payrolls IMHO stop losses will kick around 1.20.

Before today�s payrolls my upside for the � was 1.25 I still have some but dont fancy holding them much longer @ 1.24 Im out.

04-02-04 Glutt: May be you right Torgay, but tell me how you see Turkish YES to play against Greek NO? I however see the story more from political viewpoint and from it there is now clear question for the EU, either they pledge to what they mind or they risk losing Turkey, EU cannot always tell the old thing: I will marry you but not today. I think today is decisive moment of reckoning for the EU politicians who must finally tell yes or no, or say it simple an absent YES will mean explicit NO no matter what EU politicians say. Question, would EU risk to put a fat dot in this story and Turkey will drift on its own or is EU ready to pledge the deal in exchange for long term commitments as was the case with now acceding mini-me(s) (if you remember Austin Powers) countries? I myself have greater respect for Turkey than for all those loose newcomers whose only advantage was close proximity to EU doors and EU bid to avoid post soviet disintegration spilling over in this place. IMHO

04-02-04 torgay: glutt: Turkey is on the road. Nobody expected a different result from the negotiations in Switzerland. The referandum on April 24 is very important. Actually 74 % of the greek part and 42 % !! of the turkish part is against the Annan plan. I expect a "YES" from the turks and a "NO" from the greeks on April 24. And this is exactly what Erdogan wants...

04-02-04 carib: Sold CESP 11 dentist in the morning (Frankfurt) @97,5. I figured I could load back Cesp 11 carpenter @95 in the afternoon.. Apparently not easy.

04-02-04 carib: Fox: I am not sure about your smell, in this case. I hold mostly bonds and stocks in $, but I book some corp accounts in �. Starting three years ago, I started selling forward a few million $ against � to cover the FX risk. the Eurotz was worth 88� at the time. I rolled those forwards over until 2004. I was waiting for 1,30 to close, but missed the top. At the expiry, early march, I rolled over only half of the contracts. Where do you see a <stop loss> there... I cannot see..

04-02-04 wally: <savonarola: wally... am I wrong saying that <Thug> has been the best performer over the last month?> au contraire! you are quite right :~))

04-02-04 roguetrader18: only cesp 13 '08 USD at 94.5 subj. 400-500k

04-02-04 amigo latino: <carib: I just sold those in �...> Desconfianza en el E. But the response is with lightening speed or even faster!

04-02-04 Fox: <profit taking on �> Huummm!! smells like <stop losses>

04-02-04 victorn: <Un h�mero de hace 370 millones de a�os revela que las extremidades surgieron para moverse en el agua>

04-02-04 carib: Victorn: profit taking on �, and assumption 1,29 might have been the top.

04-02-04 victorn: eta is a good student of bin laden.

Police found a bomb Friday under the track of Spain's bullet train line between Madrid and Seville, the Spanish interior minister said. Bomb-disposal experts alerted by a railway employee found 22-24 pounds of explosive that might be dynamite about 40 miles south of Madrid, Interior Minister Angel Acebes said.

04-02-04 amigo latino: <savonarola: wally... am I wrong saying that <Thug> has been the best performer over the last month?��..>

Savo: Thug 27, surely the most volatile! Any how one month is too short a time to judge the longterm bonds ( for those who are not traders)

04-02-04 victorn: carib based on what reasoning? or just based on the price of the �?

04-02-04 carib: Vic: I moved already 60-40 a few weeks ago.

04-02-04 victorn: amigo you will like this news. :-)

El representante en el pa�s del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), Mois�s Pineda, dijo anoche que esa instituci�n no ha emitido juicio en relaci�n con la evaluaci�n de la corrupci�n en la Rep�blica Dominicana.

Expres� que la nota original presentada en el Excelsior, de M�xico y la publicada en el List�n Diario, hay un salto muy dram�tico cambiando el t�rmino de la verdad y que no es lo que la instituci�n considera lo correcto.

Hablando en su despacho asegur� que el banco no tiene ninguna metodolog�a para calificar el desempe�o del pa�s, el desempe�o del gobierno, ni puede pronunciarse sobre temas que no le corresponden.

04-02-04 victorn: carib as long as the ecb doesn't lower interest rates, i don't think there is a ploblem and i will remain 50-50. if the ecb lowers rates, then i will consider 75$-25�.

04-02-04 carib: The � did not like those figures...

04-02-04 victorn: Ni perros ni mexicanos

Hace medio siglo muchos locales de Texas anunciaban: "No se admiten perros ni mexicanos". Seguramente el conocido profesor Samuel P. Huntington, de la Universidad de Harvard, no respaldar�a este veto. Pero por amor a los perros, no a los mexicanos, contra los cuales despotrica de manera contumaz en su reciente y pol�mico libro �Qui�nes somos?

Seg�n su tesis, los mexicanos, y en general los latinos, conforman una cultura renuente a integrarse en la sociedad, cuya lengua y credo representan graves amenazas contra Estados Unidos. Textualmente dice: "El m�s inmediato y serio desaf�o contra la identidad tradicional de Am�rica (l�ase Estados Unidos) procede de la continua e inmensa inmigraci�n de latinoamericanos, especialmente de M�xico, y su alta tasa de fertilidad, comparada con la de los nacionales". Esa supuesta horda oscura que invade a la Am�rica anglosajona y forma en el seno del Para�so un planeta aparte se caracteriza, seg�n el profesor, por ser poco ilustrada, hablar otra lengua, representar una cultura distinta, quitar el trabajo a los nativos, constituir una carga para el Estado, rechazar a los dem�s y llamar a sus hijos (es literal) Jos� y no Michael.

La doctrina anti-hisp�nica remata con un interrogante de corte fascistoide: �C�mo ser�a Estados Unidos sin ellos? Y responde: mucho mejor: habr�a menos pobres y hablar�an ingl�s. Su razonamiento, por supuesto, omite lo que se perder�a la sociedad estadounidense --cuya fuerza emana de ser un crisol de culturas-- si prescindiera de lo que significa la latina, ejemplo hist�rico de mestizaje pac�fico y rica en mil aspectos: desde la gastronom�a y la m�sica hasta la ecolog�a.

http://eltiempo.terra.com.co/opinio...

04-02-04 manya: March PAYROLLS +308K (Cons 120K), JOBLESS RATE 5.7% (Cons 5.6%) ** This was the "blow out" markets were waiting for: hiring up across the board, plus +87K in revisions. ** Several factors were positives: better weather fueled Const hiring (+71K), services hiring surged. ** IT IS NOT A DIRECT LEAP FROM HERE TO A FED RATE HIKE! There are several familiar (unimpressive) points here: -- Avg weekly hrs fell to 33.7 -- Avg hrly earn only +0.1% -- Temp services -2K -- Manufacturing 0K -- Most important, JOBLESS RATE up 5.7% ** Bottom line: this is a BIG step in the right direction, but the markets are getting ahead of themselves. The Fed will need to see more like this before they think about rate hikes.

04-02-04 victorn: U.S. employment rose last month at the fastest pace in nearly four years, easily outstripping expectations, as workers returned after a grocery store strike and construction hiring bounced back on better weather, a government report on Friday showed.

04-02-04 carib: Thug 27 down 2 pt on JPM...typo?

04-02-04 carib: Vic: true...Cynicism is <cinismo> in italian. Chuy and I were talking italyan... :-)

04-02-04 carib: Manya, Rogue: any offers of CESP 11 in $? I just sold those in �...

04-02-04 optimist: Savo: that is correct March 1 Ven 27 was at 82.75 now at 90, and Ecu 30 was at 84.5, now at ... 88,5??

04-02-04 savonarola: wally... am I wrong saying that <Thug> has been the best performer over the last month?

04-02-04 wally: Thug27 90.15 / 91.00

04-02-04 victorn: <Another name(five letters) is missing from the list! > a-m-i-g-o. :-)

04-02-04 victorn: spurs what reasoning leads you to conclude that she is so smart?

04-02-04 amigo latino: <carib: Vic: K is relatively honest, compared to Duhalde, RSaa...and the other PJ governor��>

Another name(five letters) is missing from the list!

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