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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, April 30, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Economic Growth Steady, Prices Up 04-30-04 (Yahoo) The U.S. economy grew steadily but less robustly than anticipated during the first quarter this year,

Remedy to outsourcing: better US jobs 04-29-04 (Yahoo) In truth, the outsourcing of American jobs is one relatively small facet of the larger problem

LATIN AMERICA

Brazils President Pressed to Spend More 04-30-04 (NY Times) Faced with declining approval ratings and an excruciatingly slow economic recovery, Brazil's president,

Lula throws Brazilians more promises as problems mount 04-29-04 (Yahoo) The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, has begun a media offensive to regain the political initiative after the most troubled month of his leadership.

OIL PRICES

The oil wars: In the pipeline 04-30-04 (Yahoo) China and Japan are locked in a fierce diplomatic and economic struggle to win access to Russian oil

Our Oil Policy Isnt Immoral 04-30-04 (Yahoo) The allegation by Bob Woodward in his new book about the Iraq invasion — that Saudi Arabia promised to give President Bush a preelection boost in the fall by increasing oil production,

Oil boom in east Africa predicted 04-30-04 (Yahoo) Africa's Indian Ocean coast is poised to become a new source of oil and gas on the continent, according to a US oil industry expert whose firm has been carrying out satellite and geological surveys of the region.

Fed warns of dramatic rise in oil futures 04-29-04 (Financial Times) Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warned on Tuesday that the "dramatic" rise of oil and gas futures was "an economic event that can significantly affect the long-term path of the US economy".

Newest messages appear on top.

04-30-04 moneypenny: Vic: <btw, the ploblem of the usa is not within the usa. the ploblem is how the usa behaves outside its territory. it would appear as if the u.s. govt had a world map and wrote across the entire map: USA.> Agree. It is a different issue - and a perfectly valid argument.

04-30-04 moneypenny: Vic: <should people only marry those who are good enough for them?> But of course! :-)))

04-30-04 moneypenny: Carib - I see your email via the pop-up message system on my computer but my email screen on my computer here is all white and down, and I need to get it fixed, probably tomorrow. I will be able to read your email tomorrow at work in the a.m. and write back, sorry for the delay.

04-30-04 moneypenny: Hasta luego, Dooper. Happy surfing!

04-30-04 dooper: Any way it's friday arvo (= afternoon in aussie) down here, so its hasta luego amigos...

04-30-04 dooper: < the illiquid regs tranche at a discount to the liquid tranche >

the only one i know about (& hold) is the vicap SA 11.375% 15/05/07. i last saw it around par. is this the < illiquid regs tranche >? i've had this baby since just after the tequila crises.

What sort of price?

04-30-04 roguetrader18: well dooper we've seen a lot of institutional buying in the credit, more specifically the 07 tenor. we had a seller of the illiquid regs tranche at a discount to the liquid tranche. for a buy and hold clipper one could pick up nice yield to the liquid bond and buy under the call price. i like the idea.

04-29-04 victorn: why would iranians be so interested in watching the passion if not for the jewish censorship attempt?

TEHERAN (Reuters) - Irán, donde pocas películas de Estados Unidos pasan la celosa censura imperante en el país, ha dado luz verde a la exhibición en cines de "La Pasión de Cristo," de Mel Gibson, informaron el jueves los periódicos.

04-29-04 dooper: We haven't discussed the political & economic impact on Guano of hosting the Miss Universe contest....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

04-29-04 dooper: I've had vitro 07 for many years Rogue. Any developments?

04-29-04 roguetrader18: anyone in here have exposure or likes Vitro '07?

04-29-04 amigo latino: Carib, are there any Brazilian bonds(sovereign or corporate) yielding more than 14% ?

04-29-04 dooper: Interesting to see that ven27 has now traded through bra27.

Could samba be a buy now that all the anals have turned negative? My EMB exposure is maxed out, but i think bra40 looks good at this level.

04-29-04 amigo latino: <victorn: mp <I would tell the lovely Oriana that Bush is not quite good enough for her> should people only marry those who are good enough for them?……>

Probably, Bush could be happier with an intern!

04-29-04 dooper: Good call Savo...

< Guano12 88.75 YTM 14.16% >

The anxiety of watching it move to 103 after selling at 100.35 has completely gone away....

04-29-04 amigo latino: <Canadian Muslims getting Sharia courts

TORONTO: “Canada is embarking on an unusual judicial experiment that will allow members of its Muslim community to submit to the teachings of the Quran to resolve a variety of civil legal disputes, ranging from divorces to business conflicts,” stated Independent Digital on Thursday. t stated that the new model that would be closely examined by other countries grappling with the place of growing Muslim communities in their populations was to be administered by a body of imams and Islamic scholars, the Islamic Institute of Justice, which was created at the end of last year……>

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/defaul...

04-29-04 victorn: washington shouldn't just tell one side of the story.

...tienen "informes de inteligencia" que confirman "estrechos vínculos" entre el presidente Uribe Vélez y las autodefensas colombianas.

04-29-04 Amateur: Pillz, Savo, <The Fed may have been responding to a false alarm last year when it cut interest rates to four-decade lows and held them there over fears of deflation, a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta study suggests. The study concludes that much of the drop in inflation between 2001 and 2003 was due to unusual behavior of residential rents and used-car prices indirectly caused by low interest rates.>

Full WSJ article in ColFiles

04-29-04 roguetrader18: Pill ; Westpacky bonds ended the day 101-104 , 100k * 100k. Titan wheel ended 97-99; talk about volatility...

04-29-04 carib: (EFE).- El senador demócrata estadounidense Bill Nelson declaró hoy que el Gobierno de su país tiene pruebas sobre supuestos nexos entre el presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, y la guerrilla colombiana de las FARC.

Nelson, uno de los posibles candidatos a la Vicepresidencia de EEUU por el Partido Demócrata, dijo en una entrevista con la emisora colombiana "La Wfm" que los organismos de seguridad de Washington tienen "informes de inteligencia" que confirman "estrechos vínculos" entre el presidente venezolano y los rebeldes colombianos.

04-29-04 victorn: mp <I would tell the lovely Oriana that Bush is not quite good enough for her> should people only marry those who are good enough for them?

04-29-04 carib: MP: in short: if a society has strong moral and civic values, and an effective and impartial judiciary, accusations of criminal wrongdoing against a politician in power, if corroborated by evidence, should normally lead to a resignation, a quick trial...and in practice situation where such events are the exception rather than the rule. On the other hand, in a situation where corruption is very common, abuse of power the prevailing practice, and civic values very weak, normally political leaders are de facto immune from prosecution, unless politically motivated, and most judicial inquiries should be considered with skepticism.

04-29-04 victorn: mp <why should headscarves be banned?> i finally agree with you on something. :-) btw, the ploblem of the usa is not within the usa. the ploblem is how the usa behaves outside its territory. it would appear as if the u.s. govt had a world map and wrote across the entire map: USA.

04-29-04 carib: MP: IMHO the point is not to find out if Menem is more or less corrupt than Duhalde, or that a politician should be more or less immune from prosecution because of the kind of policies he promoted when in power. The judgement about the effectiveness or desirability of certain policies should be separated from the judgement on criminal actions. Judgement on policies is by definition subjective, disputable...in a word POLITICAL...and thus must be sole competence of two courts only: the electorate in the short term, and history in the long term. The matter of corruption is different, and the commitment of a political system to fight corruption is measured by the possibility to submit politicians WHO ARE IN POWER to controls and, if necessary, prosecution. It's very easy to start prosecuting selectively politicians who have lost power...in order to discredit them and their policies in the eyes of the public. It's a political ploy, buy legally and morally...it's a monster.

04-29-04 victorn: mp thanks.

04-29-04 Amateur: <Oriana Fallaci! MP best friend> My English failed me, what I meant was you would be the bridesmaid in such wedding, <best friend> was a <best man> namesake...:-)

04-29-04 moneypenny: Spurs: <I know, disgusting. This is why Menem, should go down. Corruption is corruption is corruption.>

You make a strong point - if the corruption affects you, it's natural to despise it more. This oil for food corruption bothers me even more than the pervert-priest scandals. I feel as though I can never trust another Vatican statement on world events again. They will be as tainted to me as all the Marxist statements that came out of the mouths of leftist priests and bishops during the El Salvador war, which totally discredited the statements of bishops to me, lasting until this day. I still don't care what they say or think, I just listen to the Vatican. Well, now they are worse than I ever thought they were, so I am repelled.

On the case of Menem, I still see him as comparative pickpocket who did some good in Argentina, versus Duhaladron who simply ripped off the whole country to the tune of hundreds of billions, a scale never before seen in the world, and enriched himself. Busting them all is fine with me. But busting the worst ones first seems to be the best course of action to me.

Why does Menem seem so much worse than the others, to you?

04-29-04 moneypenny: C-Banker: <So that we can recognize you from far??? You are obviously not aware of what is happening actually to a huge part of muslim citizens in U.S.! Germany is far away from that! Sense behind the headscarf-law is to provide that teachers keep their religious and political neutrality towards their pupils, thereby avoiding indoctrination of whatsoever kind as far as possible. Meanwhile you made clear that you don't know what you are talking about.> No need to be rude. I think banning headscarves is very intrusive and a bad idea. Too many times, Europe bills itself as the great understander of human nature and casts GnoE as headstrong and ignorant. But in GNoE, we never do anything as stupid and coercive as this. If you were a believing Muslim and if you read the Koran to say it was asking you to cover your hair as a means of modesty and holiness - as well as a feminist gesture showing the world that you do not want to be judged by looks but by brains - some state ordering you to take it off would be anathema to you. You would have to choose between wishes of the state and wishes of your conscience. And headscarf never harms anyone, why should headscarves be banned? There is no reason why a woman who wears a headscarf cannot be neutral. In fact, because I am a religious Catholic, I find that the easiest people to understand are those who follow their faith like Muslims and Jews, or who are honest about their absence of faith, like atheists - and the hardest people to understand are those say they love abortion and then insist that they too are Catholic and therefore should be able to dictate church doctrine. A mere headscarf is no ban to neutrality at all. You have to judge a person by her actual actions around others, not her identity to herself.

Ban bomb-belts on 13-year-olds, sure. This is what GNoE does. But do not intrusively ban headscarves on those who are simply following their consciences and who harm no one. The ruling in Germany absolutely baffles me. Although it is their country and they have a right to do it as a sovereign state, it strikes me as a recipe for trouble. Hernando de Soto would agree.

04-29-04 moneypenny: Amateur: <Bush getting a divorce and marries Oriana Fallaci! MP best friend> Would never happen - I would tell the lovely Oriana that Bush is not quite good enough for her and either it would not happen or she would never speak to me again. :-)))

But am honored you would think I could be her best friend - she is one of my heroes - but I have never met her.

04-29-04 moneypenny: Amigo, check mail...

04-29-04 moneypenny: Vic: Here is what happened when Singapore tried to equalize the process, as Google is trying to do, the other day...

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/mo...

<IT WAS meant to make the buying of initial public offer (IPO) shares easily accessible and more certain for the retail investing masses. But now, DBS Bank has suspended its controversial ATM-based first-come, first-served IPO share application scheme after just four months <after fights broke out at the ATM machines where the shares were sold>. It will try to refine the system, and may bring it back.>

04-29-04 moneypenny: I am hearing there is more to this story than is appearing. At a very minimum there's an interesting power stuggle going on in Jamaica. Prediction: Omar will get the boot.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news...

<Finance Minister Dr Omar Davies yesterday rejected Opposition Leader Edward Seaga's proposal for a fixed exchange rate, arguing that such a policy held more disadvantages than benefits for the country.

"An arbitrary decision to re-introduce a fixed exchange rate system just will not wash," Davies told the House of Representatives as he closed the annual budget debate.

According to the finance minister, a fixed exchange regime had costs, and "a critical one relates to the removal of flexibility to respond to domestic and external shocks".

Seaga, in his presentation, had told Parliament that a strong case existed to examine the option of either a currency board with a fixed rate of exchange, or an independent Central Bank with a special regime to maintain a pegged rate, "as the means of ending the frustrations of a stagnant, debt-ridden economy".>

04-29-04 PILLZ: Vic, now really the last one, i am more effraid of a boom schtock market then a collapse, my hedging is in my opinion even to mutch , but it change every day, depending on market sentiment and opportunity, for example, i sold today 220 Bally calls August 5 at 0.90, I could buy it back at the end at 0.60, I did'nt do it, because I believe bally will not be at above 5$ in the next 6 months, but still they will pay my blond clip, I have about 3.000 short calls in level 3, strike 2.5, only this give me a book entry of 50% gain in my level 3 game, my game is buy the blonds and short the same overvalued schtoks, end of the schtory, I can change my strategy, sell and buy everything with a phone call...in one hour, I can go completly cash, if i don't feel good..

04-29-04 victorn: <if a blond collapse, their share collapse even more>, but your short stock is significantly smaller than your long bonds, as far as i understand. not enough protection.

<and selling calls is real $ in my pocket> sure, but option premium does not provide enough cash in your pocket to offset a collapse.

04-29-04 PILLZ: Vic, but I am hedged with selling calls, do yu get it, if a blond collapse, their share collapse even more, and selling calls is real $ in my pocket...how more volatility how more fun in this market..

04-29-04 victorn: anybody is going to buy google shares?

Google Inc., whose name is synonymous with Internet searches, on Thursday said it planned to go public by selling $2.7 billion in stock through a novel online auction in the most-anticipated Internet IPO since Netscape in 1995.

04-29-04 victorn: pilly, the ploblem i find with your approach is that even though the biz that you bet could be a good biz, the market may short-term disagree with you completely. and if money managers start selling all their bonds: schweinekram bonds + emb, etc, then it could be that all your bonds collapse at the same time. biz fundamentals haven't changed, but market prices have. similar to how blazil made other emb drop too, even though they had nothing to do with blazil. or rf a few years ago. overall pessimism and all that. and selling calls can not save you from such a collapse scenario. perhaps buying puts, but not selling calls.

04-29-04 amigo latino: <BOSTON: A steep decline in graduate school applications from foreign students has university administrators pushing the federal government to reform the visa process. Their argument: The trend could cost US schools much-needed revenue and research help, and make America seem isolated in the eyes of the world. International graduate student applications for this fall are down 32 percent compared with a year ago, according to a recent survey, and schools are extending application deadlines so they don’t lose students still negotiating US bureaucracy………..>

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/defaul...

04-29-04 victorn: dr guru <I shorted 10 k of EVERYTHING !!!> yes, yes. of course you did! i believe you. now please go and make an appointment with that nice psycho pilly recommended in antwerpen. :-)

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