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Posted by
BradyNet
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Friday, April 30, '04
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<monkeys> sold veni in sympathy with Brazil but investors did not sell any veni to them. Not surprisingly, as Veni is not EM. Now, <monkeys> are short and are desperate looking for bonds to borrow and deliver.
BTW .. how can you have a 400% portfolio?
IF & TLK are a different story they are very long plays.
I play Indonesia with IF & TLK (40%-60%) IF has little liquidity so I only buy when everyone sells & vice versa.
After the CPI numbers TLK presented a very oberbought situation so I sold everything I kept IF.
@ the moment my major concern are stop losses many things are oversold but risk managers may force Savo´s friends to sell anyways.
Conclusion: China will try to slowdown industrial production without killing local consumption. Mineral Commodities will be hit hard IMHO.
If China is succesfull in not killing the economy the best plays in Asia will be those countries with strong local demand; Indonesia & Thailand. (I dont trade Thailand).
I would wait for TLK to get oversold before buying her & or IF.
Last but not least this China novel will be with us for a long time, people now will start to discuss hard landing or soft landing, additionally if US CPI numbers are a remake of March market will go crazy.
Conclusion: Im playing it slowly with good portion of portfolio in cash.
I will try to let the deleveraging play itself as much as possible in this enviroment graphs are less reliable as stop losses & portfolio rebalancing cause big moves.
My ideal after the deleveraging is over is to have 100% of Veni27 (66% now), 100% of GGAL (50% now),100% of IF-TLK (40% now), 100% VIP (40% now).
http://www.bcv.org.ve/reservas/rese...
and read.
Meaning that if Chavez doesn't pay.. the BCV will have to pay itself.
So as long as the BCV has reserves to pay, Veni will not default, with or without Chavez.
Given Chavez has made sure that PDVSA dollars will not go anymore to buy real estate in Fort Lauderdale, La Jolla or Zermatt for the Veni elite, our Veni bonds are <money in the bank>.. and I mean a CH bank, not an argie one.
They have already corrected nicely. China slowdown ? Deleveraging play ?
<When was the last time any of the high paycheck grabbing and low common sense endowed IMF economists stand for elections? How can any political leader in a democracy survive and keep the country on an even keel by ignoring social needs, especially in a poor country?
It is almost asinine the recommendation of allocating 70% share (FRIREP) for debt buyback in a country with many unmet social needs. In a democracy, the govt is not there just for protecting bondholders and investors and increasing savings.
A more reasonable allocation that assures social peace, govt survival and the long term servicing of the debt could be less than 70% (meaning increased allocation for social spending). Hence such a modification should be welcome by investors instead of getting concerned or scared. The same monkeys who are du,mping Ecu bonds will be the ones who buy again when prices peak. Such are the perversions of the fight or flight response
US$ <40-41>
Euros <36-37>
CHs <32-33>
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/new...
cheers!
A week after it emerged from the largest Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, MCI Inc. predicted a net loss for this year and reported a massive $22.2 billion profit for 2003 as a result of accounting adjustments related to the bankruptcy. MCI said revenue for 2003 dropped 15% to $27.3 billion, including revenue from Embratel Participacoes SA, a Brazilian telecommunications company in which MCI is selling its stake. MCI said it expects revenue for this year to be at the low end of its earlier forecast of $21 billion to $22 billion, excluding Embratel. It expects revenue from its key unit, which provides phone and data services to businesses, to drop by as much as 14% from the $14.1 billion recorded in 2003.
The company reported a loss of $9.2 billion for 2002. MCI is the nation's second-largest long-distance carrier after AT&T Corp. The company is emerging from bankruptcy at a time when the long-distance industry is reeling from falling prices, mounting competition and a glut of supply. AT&T has said it expects revenue to decline by as much as 10% this year.One benefit MCI reaped from the bankruptcy was the opportunity to reduce expenses more sharply than it could have otherwise. MCI said major costs, including access to other companies' networks, and the costs of products, services, sales and overhead fell by 15% in 2003 to $23.8 billion. The company said slower sales were partly responsible for the decline………>
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB...sure <amigo> we are in business. how much will you charge if i outsource my next Ramadan to you? :~))
PISS SHIT COUNTRY !!!!!!!!
(forever)
wär mir auch passiert, aber momentan bin ich klamm
:-)))))
dorschhalde !!!!!!!!!!!!
That was treason .. and the punishment is well deserved...)))
How could you change a solvent low debt, willing to pay province in the most dynamic LA economy today... for a highly in debt country, whose political class has no willigness to pay, that has spent the new revenues from the OCP several times in teachers and nurses, that has no support from the IMF other than verbal, whose president has no party, and that has haircut external creditors twice?
Churches and pilgrim centers in the United States and European countries are outsourcing hundreds of thousands of masses to parishes in Kerala, which has the largest number of churches in India….A Holy Mass at the St Joseph Catholic church in Kochi is being conducted. The language is Malayalam, but the intentions are dedicated to a departed soul in Germany.At the end of the mass, the Catholic parish that conducted it will be richer by 50 euros because it was a memorial service that a German couple had 'outsourced' for their son who died of cancer two years ago. …. Last week, a Catholic parish in Kerala's Thrissur diocese conducted the morning mass for an unusual cause: to end the marriage woes of soccer star David Beckham. A Beckham fan from London paid for the mass so that the football star gets manages to come out of the media storm that has whipped up due to his 'affairs.' The Holy Mass, however, was not held in a London parish, but was 'outsourced' to a remote church at Anthikad in Thrissur diocese……..The main reason for the outsourcing of mass intentions to Kerala is an acute shortage of priests in the West and the high costs of spiritual services in the US and Europe……..>
http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/ap... If you have any proposals to outsource religious services to DR ? Let me know.Manya
<Latest Word from Ecuador>
More or less supporting yesterday's note, where we argued that Ecuador may be headed for rougher seas, buried in today's local press is another indication the FEIREP may be modified. Last week, we heard from the Labor Minister Izurieta, who suggested the 70% share of the oil fund destined for debt buy-backs (and the retirement of state liabilities to social security) will be reduced to 40%. (The 10% destined for social spending would rise to 40%). The President responded that there must have been some sort of error, as no change is coming, to which Minister Pozo noted that no modification would come under his watch.
We think change is highly likely. This is a view apparently shared by the President's wife, Ximena Bohorquez, herself a congresswoman (for PSP). She is quoted in today's El Comercio noting the President will, in fact, send a bill modifying the Fiscal Responsibility and Stabilization Law to modify the FEIREP (to 40% for debt. Social spending rises to 30%). Congressman Gilmar Gutierrez (also PSP) confirmed this plan. And there seems to be good support in Congress to make the change quickly.
Naturally, this again contradicts Pozo, and the IMF's recommendations. We reiterate that, at best, there will be non-committal or neutral kinds of statements coming from the Fund in the wake of meetings in D.C., in part due to this kind of concern. An IMF mission is expected to arrive in Quito in roughly two weeks to assess the landscape for a new accord. In the meantime, it does not look good for Gutierrez, nor for Pozo, whose support is fading fast. The market should catch up to this reality fairly soon.
have a great WE
Agree completely. A fine analysis. The other bad side effect of it is that politicians then cling to power like beasts since they know the judicial furies will be unleashed upon them if they ever loosen their grip on power. The net result is, even worse corruption than before as politicians seek to entrench themselves if only to avoid prosecution. Then there is no shifting of power, no fresh faces, and the result of that is political stagnation. As Argy's political-class mafiya demonstrate quite well. Monster is right.
Elegantly stated, and I am in full agreement.
<On the other hand, in a situation where corruption is very common, abuse of power the prevailing practice, and civic values very weak, normally political leaders are de facto immune from prosecution, unless politically motivated, and most judicial inquiries should be considered with skepticism.>
FWIW, one thing that is starting to crop up a lot in conversations in GNoE, since the Martha Stewart trial, is how infrequently done these kinds of abuse of power are in GNoE. Powerful people have so much to lose through petty wrongdoing that it almost isn't done a whole lot, at least in GNoE. Martha Stewart must have lost a half a billion dollars or more out of her fortune over her petty inside trading. Miserably enough, if she had known how to read stock charts, she woule have sold anyway, without needing to cheat. A pity she didn't grasp it early on and make a quick plea deal, but the consensus I hear quite often is that white collar crime is so rare that she didn't know how much she could end up really paying. Well, now she knows.
Inversely - for someone like Menem or for assorted dictators in tinpot regimes with weak institutions - the penalties tend to be very low, even if they do get caught.
But there is another subtle difference yet again.
Martha Stewart committed a small crime. In a country with strong institutions. Got a small official penalty. But a very big unofficial penalty (her stock collapsed).
Menem, meanwhile, probably stole $20 - $60 million. In a country with weak institutions. Will get a harsh penalty, but based on his politics, not his crime. Will pay no unofficial penalty, because the people who support him will perceive his penalty as political - and therefore continue to support him.
Suharto, via his rotten children, probably stole $1 billion. In a country with very weak institutions. Got no harsh penalty. But got a huge unofficial penalty - based on popular anger at his 'impunity' and squandering of his wealth by idiotic spendthrift children. He won't be back politically.
Interesting how these equations work - maybe there are other equations out there to consider. Interesting to see your analysis of any of this, too.
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