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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, May 14, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

World Bank Corruption May Top $100 Bln 05-14-04 (Yahoo) World Bank (news - web sites) corruption may exceed $100 billion and while the institution has moved to combat the problem, more must be done, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee said on Thursday.

Jobless Claims Up More Than Expected 05-14-04 (Yahoo) Initial claims for U.S. jobless aid climbed more than expected last week but a rolling average hit a 3-1/2 year low, reflecting a rosier job market, a government report showed on Thursday.

Dollar Retains Gains After Economic Data 05-14-04 (Yahoo) The dollar held its gains on Thursday after a trio of reports signaled fairly strong U.S. economic growth, affirming currency market expectations of dollar-boosting interest rate hikes during the summer.

Dollars Without Borders 05-13-04 (NY Times) n the last five years, the age-old practice in which industrious folk send money from foreign lands to their families back home has become recognized as one of the most promising new ways to fight poverty.

US trade deficit hits record 46 billion dollars in March 05-13-04 (Yahoo) The United States' trade deficit mushroomed to a record 46.0 billion dollars in March, stunning analysts, as the warming economy gobbled up imports, government data showed.

LATIN AMERICA

Miami, Colombia Behind Paramilitary Invasion-Chavez 05-13-04 (Yahoo) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Wednesday a force of Colombian paramilitaries captured near Caracas this week was part of a planned "invasion" plotted in Miami and Colombia.

US raps Brazil for expulsion of New York Times correspondent 05-13-04 (Yahoo) The United States rapped Brazil for expelling a New York Times correspondent after he wrote a story about President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's use of alcohol, saying the move was not in keeping with the country's tradition of press freedom.

Factory output data point to Brazils growth 05-13-04 (Financial Times) Further evidence of Brazil's return to growth emerged yesterday with the publication of industrial production figures for March.

ASIA

Opposition Warns of Revolt in Philippines 05-13-04 (Yahoo) The party of opposition presidential hopeful Fernando Poe Jr. warned Wednesday of another "people power" revolt if he's cheated of the presidency

OIL PRICES

Taking Some `Shock Out of Oil Prices 05-13-04 (Yahoo) -- It didn't take long. No sooner did job growth disappear as a stumbling block to a self-sustaining economic expansion than oil prices spread a viscous slick on global growth.

IEA Asks Suppliers to Explore for More Oil 05-13-04 (Yahoo) Demand for oil is growing at its fastest rate in eight years, but the economic recovery could fizzle unless suppliers keep pace by drilling new wells and producing fresh crude, the International Energy Agency warned Wednesday.

OPEC Powerless to Stem Oil Price Surge 05-13-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices burst to new 13-year highs above $40 a barrel on Wednesday on concern that OPEC (news - web sites) may not pump enough oil to meet rapidly accelerating world oil demand.

Fears over economic growth push up oil prices 05-13-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices moved beyond $40 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest for 13 years, amid fears that economic growth was stimulating an increase in oil demand that producers were struggling to fulfil.

Newest messages appear on top.

05-14-04 panasonic: <victorn: Venezuela autorizada a emitir nueva deuda hasta 1.562,5 mlns dlr> issuing debt is like caffeine, addictive :-(

05-14-04 savonarola: ruspan..<The ones in your barrio can give a heart attack to unprepared shopper.>

True.. that is one I want to declare it a tax free miami condominium organised independent republic!

05-14-04 victorn: hazel, it's just a bunch of figures, the new debt that pinky wants to issue, the amounts of external and internal debt, which savo disagrees, etc.

savo, when veni's external debt was not growing, because pinky was an alien from outer space, veni's internal debt was growing, growing and growing, and continues to grow till this day with high interest rates and relatively short-term maturities. i really can't understand why you are surprised to read that it's now $11 bn. the difference with former times is that now both external and internal debt are growing and growing and growing. i agree, int'l reserves are also growing and growing and growing.

05-14-04 Merlino: <a new plateau of 3%. Markets have NOT yet adjusted fully to this new plateau.> Hope so as we must still do our buying My feeling is that markets must still complete their adjustment.

05-14-04 savonarola: vic...<savo almost never>

You should if you want to it healthy food. Don't leave such an important issue to your wife!

05-14-04 ruspan: Savo:<savonarola: vic... have you ever gone to the supermarket? > Maybe he's going to a normal one :-) The ones in your barrio can give a heart attack to unprepared shopper.

05-14-04 victorn: savo almost never, but i know that food prices keep going up and up. that's why i was joking with you. :-)

05-14-04 savonarola: vic.. that article is pathetically wrong. If it would be right Veni debt would be 40 bn. According to the lattest Fitch report, total government (internal+external) debt is 30 bn US$.

05-14-04 ruspan: Savo:<The guy that cooks the CPI numbers> Looking at it as a big pot, you put commodities and energy there (all sharply up), labour (let's think it is constant) and margins. If the result is basicly the same, margins are to suffer?

05-14-04 savonarola: vic... have you ever gone to the supermarket?

05-14-04 hazelnutter: no entiendo espanol Victorn.
que hicho Pinky ahora? in inglese por favor... ;)

05-14-04 victorn: amateur, when do you think that greenspan will raise rates and by how much?

05-14-04 victorn: savo food deflation? :-)

05-14-04 hazelnutter: savo i am puzzled too.
unless the volatility in food prices are extreme.

05-14-04 Amateur: Alan would do well in adjusting immediately to 2.5%, which would still be slightly stimulative, IMHO. The continuous torture of 0,25% and 0,5% FF adjustments over a long period would be a permanent negative cloud.

If we are having to read the ANALysts elucubrating every day over 18 months, wether the next adjustment will be in 30 days or in 60 days, and wether it will be o,25 or o,50, WHAT A BORE!!!!

05-14-04 victorn: savo why would pinky issue $3bn of external debt in 2004 instead of tapping reserves?

05-14-04 Primo: wally <matka> is polish and means "womb" in russian:)

05-14-04 ruspan: <In a bizarre coincidence, Nick Berg crossed paths with Al Qaeda years before its henchmen beheaded him, when his E-mail and password wound up in the hands of 9/11 suspect Zacarias Moussaoui.> http://www.nydailynews.com/front/st...

05-14-04 savonarola: The guy that cooks the CPI numbers in the US, this time cooked, by mistake, the wrong column.

With oil at 41 it is unexplicable that the CORE, ie the one that excludes food and energy came out higher (0.3) than the overall CPI that includes food and energy (0.2).

05-14-04 victorn: Venezuela autorizada a emitir nueva deuda hasta 1.562,5 mlns dlr

CARACAS - El gobierno de Venezuela fue autorizado para emitir nueva deuda p�blica por hasta 3,0 billones de bol�vares (1.562,5 millones de d�lares) para pago de deuda y para gesti�n fiscal, mediante operaciones que podr�n hacerse en bol�vares, d�lares o euros.

La autorizaci�n, dentro de su programa de ejecuci�n del plan de endeudamiento para el 2004, fue dada en la v�spera en respuesta a una solicitud del Ministerio de Finanzas, inform� el jueves la Comisi�n de Finanzas del Parlamento.

Del monto total autorizado, 2,0 billones de bol�vares (1.042 millones de d�lares) ser�n utilizados para atender los pagos del servicio de la deuda p�blica y 1,0 bill�n de bol�vares (521 millones de d�lares) para la gesti�n fiscal, precisa el documento aprobado por los diputados.

El gobierno del presidente Hugo Ch�vez ha emitido este a�o 5.000 millones de d�lares en deuda interna y externa, de los cuales 4.000 millones fueron destinados para un programa de refinanciamiento de deuda iniciado en el 2002 y 1.000 millones para el financiamiento de programas y proyectos p�blicos.

El ministro de Finanzas, Tob�as N�brega, dijo la semana pasada que con esas operaciones de cr�dito p�blico realizadas en los cuatro primeros meses del a�o est�n cubiertas las necesidades de financiamiento fundamentales del 2004.

Con los recursos levantados, Venezuela realiz� colocaciones y recompras que le permitieron extender entre tres y cinco a�os alrededor de la mitad de los vencimientos de su deuda p�blica interna de este a�o y parte de la del 2005.

Venezuela lanz� el programa de refinanciamiento de deuda p�blica a fines del 2002, que ha implicado recompras de deuda interna y externa y emisiones for�neas por m�s de 7.000 millones de d�lares.

El saldo de la deuda p�blica externa de Venezuela fue de 24.161 millones de d�lares al cierre del 2003 desde 22.539 millones al concluir el 2002, seg�n las cifras provisionales del Ministerio de Finanzas que no incluyen los 3.000 millones de d�lares en deuda externa emitidos este a�o.

La deuda p�blica interna sum� 21,6 billones de bol�vares (11.246 millones de d�lares) al cierre del 2003, frente a 15,8 billones de bol�vares (equivalentes a 8.207 millones de d�lares al tipo de cambio vigente) en el 2002. Esos datos no incluyen los 2.000 millones de bol�vares emitidos este a�o en Vebonos con vencimiento en el 2008, 2009 y 2010.

Casi el 90 por ciento de la deuda interna venc�a entre el 2004 y el 2006, pero con los recursos levantados de las emisiones, el gobierno ha recomprado unos 1.700 millones de d�lares de bonos de Deuda P�blica Nacional (DPN) que expiraban este a�o y el pr�ximo.

05-14-04 Amateur: As expected by mkt, but important anyway. Inflation is not on fire, but it is confirming a new plateau of 3%. Markets have NOT yet adjusted fully to this new plateau.

05-14-04 hazelnutter: paid 79.75- did i pay the wrong price?

05-14-04 hazelnutter: just bought some Pinky 27s.
first time i hold some pinkies since last March!!

05-14-04 Fox: < wally: CPI core rate 0.2% - a non-event imNSho> In today�s market a non-event is a good event. ;-))

05-14-04 dooper: Moneypenny: do you think < The Thug > will < torture > the recently captured detainees?

No, No. I'm not talking about Bush & Rummy.....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

05-14-04 wally: << A Monkey > = An expert in emerging markets, usually with an advanced degree from one of the fancy schools, working for one of the major investment banks. Their job is to trade emerging market bonds on a daily basis.....> .... enabling colores to make a buck or two additional pocket money :~)

05-14-04 wally: <Unknown breed, probably a lost link to the disappeared Nearthentals>

NEANDERTHALS NEANDERTHALS NEANDERTHALS NEANDERTHALS !!!

:~)))

05-14-04 dooper: < when a US statistical number is announced at 8.30 am NY time >

Otherwise known as the C(himpanzee) P(anic) I(ndicator).

05-14-04 wally: CPI core rate 0.2% - a non-event imNSho.

05-14-04 dooper: Disarmament, Pinky style.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...

05-14-04 carib: Savo: reasonable assumptions...but are we heading for a turmoil that could mean lower non-defaulted Argy bonds prices?

05-14-04 savonarola: dooper.. to add mor color to your posting I am copying straight from the Oxford Dictionary:

<Monkey> :

1) it is said of those that hit the bid when they are lifted and lift the offer when they are hit.

2) Unknown breed, probably a lost link to the disappeared Nearthentals. Recognisable for they very large chin.

3) Their behaviour follows no other human pattern. Typically they go crazy and start screeming unreconisable sounds when a US statistical number is announced at 8.30 am NY time of the type, <BUY C BONDS.....> !!!!!.. <PAY ON....> !!!! <SELL ON ....> !!!! only to do exactly the opposite 3 minutes later.

05-14-04 savonarola: carib...<Savo: found some cheaper sea urchins today...should we go on loading? >

1) I continue to believe that BA will come with a better offer than the republic, and the closing will be simpler.

2) I believe that the Republic offer will be rejected outright.

3) I believe that K will not conclude his mandate. How his demise will work out, I don't know. I hope peacefully. He has opened too many fronts (the militars, the peronist party, Duhalde, the provincial governors, the security forces, the privatised utilities, the agro sector, the oil sector, the Catholic Church, the foreign creditors, the AFJPs, the G7....) and has practically no support from anywhere except from the polls that his acolytes produce.

05-14-04 dooper: Wally: you forgot to add a translation for a very important Colores jargon. For me it almost defines The Colour.

< A Monkey > = An expert in emerging markets, usually with an advanced degree from one of the fancy schools, working for one of the major investment banks. Their job is to trade emerging market bonds on a daily basis.

For a running commentary on their progress read Savo's postings.

05-14-04 Pelegrino-spo: So thats a consensus in the market that if CPI came above of expectations, markets (stocks and bonds) will meltdown. It seems obviuos for everybody in the market. Maybe financial markets are not so obviuos!

Do you guys remember the huge sell-off before the war started last year? The war in fact started on a wednesday or thursday, however markets started to rally on monday of that same week. If you guys remember, bush&blair gave an ultimatum to saddam which expired on that latter sunday, and saddam refused it. Everybody thought markets would melt that monday, but it rallied for some weeks, cause war was a 99% certain.

I think that the same situation may apply to nowadays. if CPI came very above expectations, markets may rally due the end of rate hike precification.

05-14-04 wally: <Lo m�s novedoso es que el bono atado al PBI ser�a entregado compulsivamente a todos los acreedores. El borrador de propuesta ser�a, hasta ahora, as�:

Bono a la par, sin quita sobre el valor nominal, emitido a 35 o 40 a�os de plazo, con una baja tasa de inter�s (menor al 2%);

Bono de descuento, con una quita nominal del 75%, emitido a 20 o 25 a�os de plazo;

Bono de capitalizaci�n, o bono PBI, que pagar�a un premio extra si el PBI crece por encima de un piso. Adem�s, si el PBI crece por debajo de lo previsto, los due�os de estos papeles recibir�an m�s bonos en compensaci�n. Este t�tulo ser�a entregado a todos los acreedores. Ser�a as�: si un acreedor quiere 100 bonos de descuento, le entregar�an 15% de esos papeles en "bonos PBI"

Bono en pesos ajustable por CER, pero que se abonar�a en d�lares al tipo de cambio libre.

Bono "cuasi par", en pesos. Ser�a para las AFJP, que deber�an canjear sus bonos en d�lares a raz�n de 1,40 peso m�s CER. Tambi�n se pagar�a en d�lares.

Las tasas de inter�s que abonar�n cada uno de estos bonos todav�a no est�n definidas. <<<Pero en todos los casos la combinaci�n de tasas, plazos, a�os de gracia y cupones de amortizaci�n e intereses debe coincidir en un n�mero: una rebaja del 75% nominal en el valor de los nuevos papeles respecto a los viejos>>>, tal como exigi� desde el principio de este proceso, en setiembre de 2003, el presidente Kirchner.>

http://www.clarin.com/diario/2004/0...

05-14-04 optimist: Primooo!!

TOTAL <TOTF.PA> SAYS INTERESTED IN RUSSIA BUT STRESSES NOT IN TALKS WITH SIBNEFT

U vas na plite moloko ubezhalo;)) Kakoe moloko? ;)

05-14-04 wally: i <schwimm> every day at least 1� lengths of my pool. that adds up to 18 meters!

05-14-04 Alexander: <<<<<<<<05-13-04 PILLZ: <excessive coffee is bad for health...maybe some other day :-) >>> Pana, I drink about 10 cups a day + 10 Lagas a day and still healty at 52.5, but I schwimm 1Km /day :-) >>>>>>

same here, but I replaced the 1km swim with 3 cigars daily.

05-14-04 torgay: Argentina : The Argentine government has asked the IMF to delay its 3 rd review mission, originally scheduled to begin mid-May, to June. The request was likely put in to give the government more time to finalize a debt-restructuring offer

05-14-04 davidetre: <Carib> Calpine lost 15 point. Sell it?

05-14-04 danni: wally:ssshhhhhhhh <pilly>! what if <oozy> finds out that a Sabra born in Yerushalayim -i call it <al-Quds> :~)- had tea with monkeys?...... WALLY just to let you know that the beduin are very very nice&good & that thy serv in the israely army & thy are one of us .israely love them,the last 3days was very sad for all israely & beduim for the lost of ther love one

05-14-04 danni: victorn: wally what happens if it reaches 6%? you will start buying? ..... VIC i hope it will go 8% so i can park same of my nony there its very very safe you can slep more good with lula&pinky to know that you have bush all ready in bed for the next 30years

05-14-04 Hackney: Of course, now I understand why MP hates communism so much. She lives in a state which is now more communist than russia. ;)

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