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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, July 2, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Impact of Gas Prices on Presidency 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Since 1976, in every presidential election year when gasoline prices were lower than they were in the previous presidential election year, the party in the White House remained in the White House.

US wont shift agriculture position despite WTO cotton ruling 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The United States is not altering its position on agriculture in free-trade discussions at the World Trade Organization despite a WTO that US cotton subsidies violate existing rules, a US negotiator said.

Reports Show U.S. Expansion on Track 07-02-04 (Yahoo) U.S. manufacturing expanded briskly for a 13th straight month in June while construction spending cooled a bit in May,

World economy to face new pressures as US rates rise 07-01-04 (Yahoo) World economic growth may be crimped as the United States enters an era of gradually rising interest rates to choke inflation, analysts say.

Saudi Pipelines Could Be Next Terror Targets 07-01-04 (Yahoo) With Saudi Arabia and Iraq being the two biggest suppliers of oil in the Middle East, some experts say the Saudi pipelines are the next

Standing up to America 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Peace had barely broken out in the corridors of the United States, when Jacques Chirac was at it again. Any talk of Nato getting involved in Iraq was neither timely nor well understood,

Inflationary pressures 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues begin a two-day meeting today, at the conclusion of which they are widely expected to raise their overnight target interest rate from 1 percent to 1.25 percent.

LATIN AMERICA

Global South flexes its trade muscle in Brazil 07-02-04 (Yahoo) "The South shall rise again," the old saying goes. But these days it may apply less to America's faded confederacy than to the up-and-coming trading power of the global South.

Brazils Lula courts US big business in New York 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva courted US corporate leaders here in a bid to reverse a trend and lure back US investment dollars.

Brazil Govt Faces New Threat in Key Sao Paulo Race 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Two new candidates on Sunday entered the race for mayor of Sao Paulo, Brazil's biggest city, in a move that could damage the government's chances of holding the influential position ahead of the 2006 presidential election.

ASIA

Arroyo promises 10 million new jobs in Philippines 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The newly elected President of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, appealed for unity yesterday and reached out to the poor, who had backed her opponent, with a promise to create 10 million jobs by 2010.

Arroyo sworn in as Philippines president 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Gloria Arroyo was sworn in as the 14th president of the Philippines in this central city at noon.

Philippines Arroyo Vows Tough Reforms in New Term 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Gloria Macapagal Arroyo began a new six-year term as president of the Philippines on Wednesday, promising to drive through tough economic reforms that would hurt the rich to benefit millions of poor.

U.S. to Aid Antiterror Plan in Philippines 07-01-04 (NY Times) The United States and the Philippines will hold joint military exercises in the Philippines in a counterterrorism training program aimed at destroying the local cells of a Southeast Asian network with links to Al Qaeda,

EU Refuses to Grant China Market Economy 07-01-04 (Yahoo) The European Union (news - web sites) has denied China's request to be officially recognized as a market economy, saying Monday that an assessment of the Chinese economy showed too much state interference and poor corporate governance.

OIL PRICES

Oil Jumps for 2nd Day After Saudi Signal 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices soared on Thursday, as funds snapped up heating fuel ahead of winter and Saudi Arabia signaled that prices had come down far enough.

Service Demands Another $3.3B From Yukos 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The Russian Tax Service is demanding another $3.3 billion from the Yukos oil company in back taxes, the Interfax news agency reported Thursday, sending its stock price plunging.

George W. and the Fossil Fuel Posse 07-01-04 (Yahoo) The following is an excerpt from the revised and updated edition of David Helvarg's 'The War Against the Greens' (Johnson Books, June 2004).

How to escape the oil trap 07-01-04 (Yahoo) EACH unhappy oil-produc ing nation is unhappy in its own way. The gravest chal lenge facing Iraq � after security � is to dodge the economic traps that have ensnared its oil-rich peers across the map: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia.

Newest messages appear on top.

07-01-04 apagonazo: Sorry it is in spanish. Take it or leave it. La Verdad de lo que Ocurri� en La Reuni�n Secreta Chavez - Cisneros-Carter.

Seg�n Nuestras Fuentes de Inteligencia, lo que verdaderamente ocurri� en al reuni�n secreta Cisneros-Carter-Ch�vez, ( Se presume que el gran negociador Norteamericano William Ury, estuvo presente, y fue la �nica persona fuera de este importante entorno que estuvo presente) , que se efectu� en la Residencia Ministerial dentro del Fuerte Tiuna, bajo las mas estrictas medidas de seguridad, inclusive perros antiexplosivos y comandos de la Disip fueron apostados en la cercan�a del lugar y helic�pteros artillados estuvieron apostados cercanos al Comando del Ejercito sobre la cima Ministerial Sector Manzanares- Fuerte Tiuna . Durante esta Reuni�n Secreta se presentaron a Ch�vez las pruebas irrefutables y documentadas ( con nombres, apellidos, montos y compa��as) , por parte del Gobierno Norteamericano y sus fuentes de inteligencia ( Agencias), las pruebas con n�meros y exactitud precisa de donde est�n las cuentas secretas que mantienen en el exterior y en el sistema financiero internacional los altos personeros del Gobierno, incluido el propio Chavez; se mando en la practica un emisario no oficial del Gobierno de USA, ( James Carter, ) y un empresario de las telecomunicaciones continentales como Gustavo Cisneros. Este tipo de ultim�tum se utilizo en los �ltimos d�as del Sandinismo para obligar a la revoluci�n Sandinista a entregar el Gobierno por las v�as pacificas a la Sra. Chamorro; este tipo de practica en pa�ses estrat�gicos para los intereses Norteamericanos suele utilizarse luego de contar con esas pruebas. Lo que se indica es que El Gobierno de los Estados Unidos en su rastreo a las cuentas y al financiamiento del terrorismo internacional se topo y realizo el seguimiento de estas grandes sumas de dinero que fueron extra�das del erario publico y de las transacciones petroleras que ha realizado este Gobierno fuera del sistema de PDVSA. El presentar estas informaciones con pruebas irrefutables contra este Gobierno, ha comenzado un terremoto interno para el Chavismo, quienes pueden enfrentar cargos internacionales por estos delitos y el descr�dito mundial de que tipo de Revoluci�n se estaba efectuando en Venezuela con los dineros p�blicos de estos �ltimos cinco a�os y medio. Se permite que sea Cisneros quien presente este mensaje al Gobierno Venezolano, por el alto perfil que el mismo mantiene para enfrentar democr�ticamente a Hugo Chavez, y a su vez se utilizar�a, en caso de que el Gobierno decidiera tomar otra v�a, el complejo y bien distribuido aparato comunicaci�nal, a nivel continental de Gustavo Cisneros para divulgar las pruebas de donde esta el dinero de la Revoluci�n, indic�ndose de que las pruebas son contundentes e implican a altos personeros del Gobierno, militares y civiles (sus verdaderos testaferros), sus Organizaciones y un esquema muy detallado de como se hicieron las operaciones a nivel del sistema financiero internacional. Es por esta raz�n que Jos� Vicente Rangel, a ultima hora mueve a su Diputado Jorge Rond�n, del MVR, en el parlamento para decir que si este Diputado habla , este Gobierno se cae, pensando Rangel que as� presionar�a a Hugo Chavez y a Ali Rodr�guez Araque y poder el alzarse con la Presidencia, descartando la posibilidad latente por parte de Hugo Chavez de nombrar Vice Presidente a Ali Rodr�guez Araque; pero esta ultima jugada esta por verse, los d�as que quedan son hist�ricos para Venezuela, para la Revoluci�n, y para el destino final de Hugo Chavez: he all� el nerviosismo que veremos por parte del Gobierno en los pr�ximos d�as. Creemos que la Revoluci�n tal y como fue planteada finalmente tiene sus d�as contados. Las pruebas y los hechos ya existen, ahora es asunto de ver quien las presentar� Primero.

07-01-04 moneypenny: M2 down $4.9b to $6.2828t in the week ended June 21. M1 up $12.8b to $1.3328t.
M3 down $10.4b to $9.2498t.

07-01-04 apagonazo: To recall Chavez you need to obtain more votes than that with which he was elected. He was elected with 3,750,000 votes so any more "yes" votes than that trigger the recall provided that there are not more "no" votes than "yes" votes. Opposition should be able to obtain upwards of 6,000,000 votes. I still do not think we will see a recall election. At least not before August 15th. However, for Colores, the truth of the matter has been mentioned over and over. Buy and hold Veni because in the end you should do well under whatever outcome.

07-01-04 amigo latino: <In Argentina, a ''Plan for Heads of Family Households'' that started in 2002, after the country's worst economic crisis in recent memory, gives subsidies of about $50 a month to 1.7 million unemployed. Critics say beneficiaries are not always unemployed, and are picked by federal and local officials of the ruling Peronist party in exchange for their political loyalty��>

Should DR and Argentina be merged into a single state ?

07-01-04 carib: JPM still asleep. Sorry amateur

07-01-04 carib: I basically agree with Savo observation on Veni.. even if I am slightly more pessimistic on the 3 to 1 ratio. Apagon might give a good guess on that.

07-01-04 Amateur: BNet lazy again, could someone post clsg pxes? Tks!

07-01-04 carib: Glutt: check mail

07-01-04 amigo latino: <BEAR downgrading DR�> It is very significant considering that Bear Stearns has been a consistent optimist wrt DR since many monhs!

07-01-04 savonarola: amigo,, the fiscal situation is being reasonably well managed given the circumstances.

But there are now 48% of poor now vs 13% 20 years ago when democracy started again.

There is therefore a lot of very very unhappy people that are very good material for a leftist project.

On top of that you have a president that was put there by Duhalde who is now trying to rebel against his master. The problem is that Duhalde controls the larger electoral district and nobody has been able to last in the argi presidency without the support of the prov of BA.

07-01-04 Wizzard1: Savo, let's be alert to the "War of Surveys" that will inundate Venezuela before elections. Total number of votes, according to Electoral Census is around 12 million votes. I like your mathematics but we are in "populist" times in Latin America, and I would predict that forecasts would be volatile as surveys and the election itself. Thus, let's tight our belts for a difficult flight.

07-01-04 Glutt: savo <If Chavez wins, we continue reinvesting in Veni at high yields. If Chavez loses we give the bonds to the <monkeys> 20 points higher but will have problems finding something else.> this i fully agree

07-01-04 amigo latino: Savo, Fox and others: What do you see in Argentina in 2-5 yrs from now ? Uninterrupted economic progress, irrespective of the pace. Or economic problems, caused by social and political chaos or economic factors ? Is there a reasonable chance that the debtor entities, private or semisovereigns and sovereigns, which have corrected or soon correct the recent defaults would go back to square one�another default?

07-01-04 savonarola: wizzard.. i am indifferent about the result of the referendum.

If Chavez wins, we continue reinvesting in Veni at high yields. If Chavez loses we give the bonds to the <monkeys> 20 points higher but will have problems finding something else.

In any case, if one assumes that in general people are unwilling to reveal their political options, and least of all against Chavez, my assumption is that there are 2 additional voters against Chavez for every voter that was willing to stamp his signature publically to call the referendum.

So if 2.5 million voted for the referendum, I assume that there are at least 7.5 million persons that will vote against chavez <in> the referendum. I do not know whether that number would be enought to have Chavez out as I do not know the toal number of voters in veni.

07-01-04 PILLZ: <the level of imbecility within the monkey community has reached a new unprecedented level. > :-)

I don't know if it can help the Pinky fans ?

<Venezuelan National Elections Board president Jorge Rodriguez announced in an official statement that Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. is among several companies chosen to partake in a large-scale project for identifying voters and keeping track of voter registry in the upcoming referendum for the continuation of the term of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, to be held on August 15, 2004. An agreement is expected to be signed between the Venezuelan National Elections Board and Gilat. The National Elections Board statement said that the objectives of the project were to prevent election fraud of people voting twice and to authorize and keep track of the voter registry. According to the statement, the National Elections Board decided to go with Gilat�s satellite-based network which will allow the placement of wireless data hubs at each voting center, so that by satellite, the board can stay on-line during the entire voting process.

The Venezuelan National Elections Board has announced that it will hire Gilat to provide a satellite-based Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) network to transfer voter identification data from fingerprints at polling stations.

The network, based on Gilat�s Skystar 360E platform, will include a hub in Caracas and 5,000 remote terminals at polling stations throughout the country. Market sources estimate the value of the project as a whole (for all the systems providers) at more than $65 million. The sources also estimate that Gilat's share amounts to more than 12 million. It can be assumed that about a third of Gilat's revenue from the project in Venezuela will come from the sale of VSAT stations, and the rest from ancillary equipment and from communications and other services.

Since the referendum is due to take place in Venezuela in six weeks, it is likely that the project will be completed before then. The word in the industry is that this is one of the more rapid deployments of a satellite communications network.

According to the National Elections Board statement, US-Chinese firm Cogent Systems will provide a fingerprinting system to scan and compare fingerprints. The data will be transferred to a central database via the Gilat VSAT and then checked to verify that the voter has not already voted in another location, and that the fingerprints sent from the specific location are indeed unique. Authorization of the voter following this check will be transferred back immediately to the polling station via the VSAT.

Gilat Satellite Networks and subsidiaries Spacenet Inc., Gilat Latin America and rStar Corporation, is a provider of telecommunications solutions based on VSAT satellite network technology. Headquartered in Petah Tikva, Gilat provides satellite-based, end-to-end enterprise networking and rural telephony solutions to customers across six continents, and markets interactive broadband data services. >

07-01-04 Glutt: Carib, concerning US citizens, I have no clue now, but I will try to let one guy know more about this suit in coming days, may be with his help the message spreads further in US and some people in US may contact�Rolf, welcome on board, hope your chaps also join you. keep in touch.

btw, I remember that there was one famous rebelde Omar and if I am not mistaken he had some bonds, I am not sure if he still has them but last time I wrote to him he told me his strategy would be sit and wait and then when things go moving come with some action. May be it makes sense to write him if his mail still alive and he is interested.

07-01-04 savonarola: merlino... that is the <bonded external debt>, ie our bonds.

There is other debt, and there is also domestic debt.

In any case, the numbers speak for themselves and the <monkeys> track record is so pathetic anticipating events, that we can be sure that they are wrong as they always are.

All those creatures know how to do is look backwards and translate Brazil prices into the rest of the screen. They talk about Chavez and that is all, they mimic each other and scratch their heads arguing whether the new German/Russian deal should trade at 350 over libor or 348.

07-01-04 Wizzard1: Bad news...according to a neutral biased survey Chavez has an important electorate that may lead him to win the referendum with a short margin, according to Reuters. This is the news in spanish:

"Pol�tica para pobres podr�a ayudar a ganar referendo a Ch�vez

Por Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS (Reuters) - El presidente venezolano, Hugo Ch�vez, pudiera ganar con un estrecho margen un referendo sobre su mandato que se celebrar� en agosto, seg�n una reciente encuesta que muestra que la mayor�a de los votantes apoya sus esfuerzos para aliviar la pobreza.

Muchas encuestas previas han mostrado que Ch�vez saldr�a por un amplio margen de votos de la presidencia del quinto exportador mundial de crudo. Pero el sondeo realizado entre el 12 y 17 de junio por la firma Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Inc., con sede en Washington, y obtenida por Reuters antes de ser publicada, dijo que 49 por ciento de los electores registrados se opondr�a a su salida en el referendo del 15 de agosto, contra 44 por ciento que votar�a para que el l�der de ideas de izquierdas deje el cargo.

El mismo estudio coloca a los "votantes seguros" empatados en 48 por ciento sobre si destituir o no a Ch�vez, un militar retirado nacionalista que se autoproclama defensor de los pobres. La encuesta a 1.200 personas tiene un margen de error de aproximadamente tres por ciento, dijo el jueves a Reuters Mark Feierstein, vicepresidente asociado de Greenberg.

Otro estudio de Greenberg de marzo situaba el apoyo para revocar el mandato de Ch�vez en 62 por ciento, comparado con el 31 por ciento que se opon�a. Con 45 d�as antes de la fecha para el referendo, los �ltimos resultados de Greenberg mostraron a Ch�vez ganando terreno.

"Se ve que est� recuper�ndose," dijo Michael Penfold, un analista pol�tico de la escuela de negocios IESA. La encuesta fue solicitada por el canal de televisi�n RCTV, controlado por la oposici�n.

CAMPA�A ANTI DESTITUCION

Analistas dicen que el n�mero de seguidores de Ch�vez que quiere votar aument� a ra�z de su aceptaci�n p�blica de ir a un referendo despu�s que las autoridades electorales admitieron el mes pasado que la oposici�n obtuvo las firmas suficientes para llamar a la consulta.

Mientras Ch�vez ha lanzado una agresiva propaganda para no ser revocado que se dirige a destacar los logros sociales de su "revoluci�n," sus adversarios se han demorado en arrancar su campa�a para sacarlo del cargo que gan� en 1998.

"El referendo es una competencia estrecha. No hay duda que Ch�vez ha comenzado con buen pie. La oposici�n tiene que pisar el acelerador," dijo Feierstein.

La m�s reciente encuesta de Greenberg mostr� un fuerte apoyo a los programas de Ch�vez para mejorar la salud y educaci�n y crear empleos para la mayor�a de venezolanos que vive en pobreza.

Entre los votantes registrados, 62 por ciento dijo ver a Ch�vez ayudando a los pobres, mientras que 36 por ciento no estuvo de acuerdo.

En meses recientes, el presidente ha dirigido millones de d�lares provenientes de los ingresos petroleros a proyectos sociales y de desarrollo. Los adversarios acusan a Ch�vez de gastar los recursos petroleros del pa�s para ganar votos. Tambi�n de que el mandatario est� tratando de recrear el sistema comunista de Cuba en Venezuela y lo tachan de tirano. Pero la encuesta de Greenberg detect� que 60 por ciento de los electores registrados considera que el uso del t�rmino "dictatorial" para Ch�vez "no lo describe bien," mientras 34 por ciento si lo cree. � Reuters 2004. All rights reserved.

07-01-04 Merlino: Savo <that is all, and probably less given the recent buyback>

We are talking of a reduction of about $ 7-9 b in the previously estimated amount or a bit under 40 % reduction on total external !

And without considering last buy backs.

PDVSA is also trying to pay its $ debt. Whether or not this is good for PDVSA it should be good for Veni bonds.

If real these are BIG BIG numbers and no doubt Veni 27 & 34 deserve to go well above 100

07-01-04 savonarola: merlino.. you are not missing anything.. that is all, and probably less given the recent buyback.

Add to that the price of oil, the reserves, the referendum happenning and you can conclude that the level of imbecility within the monkey community has reached a new unprecedented level.

07-01-04 Merlino: Savo <Veni total bonded external debt excluding recent buy back> Your list seems to amount to $ 13.8 b only Am I missing something ?

07-01-04 carib: Bear starts agreeing with Amigo on DR...

07-01-04 Amateur: Pillz, < buy your Level3 short call with 40% profit> I was tempted several times but every time I looked at the diminished value of the L3 bonds and said, what is the reason to rush to cover the shares?

It was a good advice. Pity I did not sell also the Calpine stock in time, for a few cents I lost the sale and after that the stock never stopped falling...

07-01-04 manya: BEAR on DR "Republic
B3/CC
Last month:
Marketperform
DomRep�s myriad of urgent needs and daunting challenges, from the introduction of a comprehensive fiscal reform, to sorting out the central bank�s quasi-fiscal burden, to solving the electricity crisis, to restoring the suspended IMF program, to meeting the financial conditions needed to keep the accord with the Paris Club on track, provide compelling reasons for us to downgrade our recommendation on the credit to underperform from marketperform. High levels of volatility and unpredictability associated with a very fluid story prompted us to keep our marketperform recommendation unchanged since February, consciously avoiding trying to guess where the Dominican saga would take us next. We now believe that DomRep�s deteriorated state, uncertain outlook and higher prospects of a debt restructuring are sufficient to justify a downgrade in our recommendation. While there are some incipient signs of recovery at the macro level (pressures on consumer prices and the currency have eased and the rate of economic contraction has slowed down), we do not think that they are strong enough to offset downside risk in the near term."

07-01-04 savonarola: Holders of Gal 2019 go to Qualmatrix archive.

07-01-04 wally: <savonarola: Wally ...where is Irak's oil?> in Bush's, Cheney's and Wolfowitz' wet dreams. all three will be out of their jobs once Iraqui oil exports will really impact international markets.

i really pity G.W.! Cheney and Wolfowitz can always get a job again as "advisers" or "consultants". Wolfowitz perhaps as successor of Ariel Sharon. but what a about a former president who can't speak a single coherent sentence not to talk about holding a speech and charge $ 100k for it. i see him trimming weeds along his ranch fences, hurting himself trying to ride a bicycle or perhaps choking on a dry piece of pretzel.

he anyway has my full sympathy since his library burned down. imagine! BOTH his books destroyed and the worst thing is that he was not able to finish colouring the second book with his crayons.

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