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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, July 2, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Impact of Gas Prices on Presidency 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Since 1976, in every presidential election year when gasoline prices were lower than they were in the previous presidential election year, the party in the White House remained in the White House.

US wont shift agriculture position despite WTO cotton ruling 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The United States is not altering its position on agriculture in free-trade discussions at the World Trade Organization despite a WTO that US cotton subsidies violate existing rules, a US negotiator said.

Reports Show U.S. Expansion on Track 07-02-04 (Yahoo) U.S. manufacturing expanded briskly for a 13th straight month in June while construction spending cooled a bit in May,

World economy to face new pressures as US rates rise 07-01-04 (Yahoo) World economic growth may be crimped as the United States enters an era of gradually rising interest rates to choke inflation, analysts say.

Saudi Pipelines Could Be Next Terror Targets 07-01-04 (Yahoo) With Saudi Arabia and Iraq being the two biggest suppliers of oil in the Middle East, some experts say the Saudi pipelines are the next

Standing up to America 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Peace had barely broken out in the corridors of the United States, when Jacques Chirac was at it again. Any talk of Nato getting involved in Iraq was neither timely nor well understood,

Inflationary pressures 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues begin a two-day meeting today, at the conclusion of which they are widely expected to raise their overnight target interest rate from 1 percent to 1.25 percent.

LATIN AMERICA

Global South flexes its trade muscle in Brazil 07-02-04 (Yahoo) "The South shall rise again," the old saying goes. But these days it may apply less to America's faded confederacy than to the up-and-coming trading power of the global South.

Brazils Lula courts US big business in New York 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva courted US corporate leaders here in a bid to reverse a trend and lure back US investment dollars.

Brazil Govt Faces New Threat in Key Sao Paulo Race 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Two new candidates on Sunday entered the race for mayor of Sao Paulo, Brazil's biggest city, in a move that could damage the government's chances of holding the influential position ahead of the 2006 presidential election.

ASIA

Arroyo promises 10 million new jobs in Philippines 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The newly elected President of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, appealed for unity yesterday and reached out to the poor, who had backed her opponent, with a promise to create 10 million jobs by 2010.

Arroyo sworn in as Philippines president 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Gloria Arroyo was sworn in as the 14th president of the Philippines in this central city at noon.

Philippines Arroyo Vows Tough Reforms in New Term 07-01-04 (Yahoo) Gloria Macapagal Arroyo began a new six-year term as president of the Philippines on Wednesday, promising to drive through tough economic reforms that would hurt the rich to benefit millions of poor.

U.S. to Aid Antiterror Plan in Philippines 07-01-04 (NY Times) The United States and the Philippines will hold joint military exercises in the Philippines in a counterterrorism training program aimed at destroying the local cells of a Southeast Asian network with links to Al Qaeda,

EU Refuses to Grant China Market Economy 07-01-04 (Yahoo) The European Union (news - web sites) has denied China's request to be officially recognized as a market economy, saying Monday that an assessment of the Chinese economy showed too much state interference and poor corporate governance.

OIL PRICES

Oil Jumps for 2nd Day After Saudi Signal 07-02-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices soared on Thursday, as funds snapped up heating fuel ahead of winter and Saudi Arabia signaled that prices had come down far enough.

Service Demands Another $3.3B From Yukos 07-02-04 (Yahoo) The Russian Tax Service is demanding another $3.3 billion from the Yukos oil company in back taxes, the Interfax news agency reported Thursday, sending its stock price plunging.

George W. and the Fossil Fuel Posse 07-01-04 (Yahoo) The following is an excerpt from the revised and updated edition of David Helvarg's 'The War Against the Greens' (Johnson Books, June 2004).

How to escape the oil trap 07-01-04 (Yahoo) EACH unhappy oil-produc ing nation is unhappy in its own way. The gravest chal lenge facing Iraq � after security � is to dodge the economic traps that have ensnared its oil-rich peers across the map: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia.

Newest messages appear on top.

07-02-04 victorn: pana <"most wanted" <carib>?> :-))

07-02-04 victorn: fox <& lower USD> � 1.23 :-)

07-02-04 victorn: apag�n <Durante esta Reuni�n Secreta se presentaron a Ch�vez> does this mean that the u.s. does not have such evidence against fidel? no secret bank accounts, etc? :-)

07-02-04 panasonic: Bonjour <apagon> are you sure you wish to go to <ladronia> with top on the list "most wanted" <carib>?

07-02-04 victorn: amigo, olvidaba comentarte sobre la lucha contra la impunidad. como el pld necesita el prd, �sto no es pol�ticamente posible en estos momentos. si leonel tuviese mayor�a ser�a diferente.

07-02-04 victorn: 10-Yr Bond 4.428% -0.136

07-02-04 victorn: amigo <They are the first ones to be bought off (in passing the reforms)! > de acuerdo, yo tampoco creo lo que dicen. todos ellos se est�n lavando las manos por el paquete fiscal que tendr�n que pasar. <And down with the IMF! f�cil decir �sto pero no es la realidad de rd, como lo demuestran los hechos.

07-02-04 apagonazo: Presently in Miami until Wednesday. Had a nice meeting with Manya and am open for a lunch (I will invite with gusto) with any local colores who might wish to do so.<Carib> I would love to attend any Braazil or Argentina get together. Enjoy Italy.

07-02-04 Fox: <Dollar also paying... for its iniquities.. > Sip!! It is a difficult world! Only orderly way out is: some inflation, low real US interest rates & lower USD.

Velly difficult indeed!

07-02-04 wally: <carib: Advice shleeping... Real climbing..> and Brazil bonds climbing too. <advice> must be busy eating humble pie :~)

07-02-04 Amateur: < 'tips' to be schweinkram > Sacrilege! TIPS are the only "real" stuff, adequate for <decent> people to maintain value, all the rest is Schweinkramm for wild SpeKulators to make inmoral profits or deserved losses! :-))))

07-02-04 carib: Advice shleeping... Real climbing... :-(

07-02-04 carib: TIPS were indeed <schweinekram>... because they yielded like schweines in the last two years!

07-02-04 carib: Dollar also paying... for its iniquities.. :-)

07-02-04 wally: <Amateur: Opti, I sold my tips too> i considered 'tips' to be schweinkram two years ago and i have not changed my mind :~)

on top of that i wonder how long the apocalyptic rate hike inflationary ANAL horsemen will hide behind the bushes before they start galloping again.

07-02-04 Fox: <<Monkeys> paying for their <iniquities>!> Una vez mas!

07-02-04 Amateur: Opti, I sold my tips too. I might buy them back cheaper in the tender next week, and if mk continues rising, EM positions will jump so I won't cry about USTs gone.

07-02-04 amigo latino: <C-Banker: Nu, Alex, h�llste das immer noch f�r "Quatsch"??>

C-Banker, I always enjoy reading your wise comments. So why deprive us,ignorants of the beautiful German language, of those comments? With your excellent English language skills, you may consider posting an English version in the parenthesis.

07-02-04 optimist: i m selling some UST here.. profit is small, but considering its been a loss few days ago..

07-02-04 amigo latino: < Victor:�..if argy had passed a fiscal reform ��.>

Victor, I am against rushing the fiscal reform. It has to be amply studied and debated. Also the fiscal reform should not be just guided by the amount of staitc budget deficit projected. The budget deficit should be reduced by reduction in expenses and a humane of reducing expenses should be explored(can be done!).

Also I am against fiscal reform if it means impunity from prosecution for those who have total disregard even for a minimum degree of rule of law. Quote from your posting :"Este pacto niega a todas luces los mejores intereses de la naci�n, porque dicho acuerdo s�lo representa una garant�a de impugnidad reciprocada......"Este intercambio bochornoso pone de manifiesto el beneficio del PRD de impugnidad ante las evidentes indelicadezas del manejo del Estado, a cambio de compartir la impopularidad del PLD ante las desagradables medidas econ�micas anunciadas en el mismo acto", agreg� Acosta.

However I do not believe the rhetoric of the Partido Reformista legislator(from your posting). They are the first ones to be bought off (in passing the reforms)!

And down with the IMF!

07-02-04 carib: Amigo: <apagon> said "take it or leave it"... so people leaving it are not necessarily in disagreement. Personally, I do neither, because I do not have sufficient info.

07-02-04 amigo latino: <Savo:If the evidence that they are showing is of the same quality as the <weapons of mass destruction>.....>

This says it all. I had some questions last night about the integrity of the intelligence information and the mode of conveying the information to Chavez, but I hesitated (not to appear to dissent with our friend apaganazo) .

(I am personally neither a supporter nor a detractor of Chavez. However as a Dominican patriot, I want Chavez to be governing after August . It is the only way DR will ger near free oil from Vene�this is the line of DR opinion makers apparently. )

07-02-04 Amateur: The whole Monkey comunity and their mothers and their grandmothers are short USTs gambling on the rise in interest rates. Everybody's fingers now crushed by the short covering. Now they will start calling <deflation> and betting that UST rates will go down to 3%. Time for clippers to increase cash?

07-02-04 savonarola: market <UP>

<Monkeys> paying for their <iniquities>!

07-02-04 C-Banker: <wally:...but what about a former president who can't speak a single coherent sentence not to talk about holding a speech and charge $ 100k> Nu, Alex, h�llste das immer noch f�r "Quatsch"??

07-02-04 dooper: < H.Advice: Long time that I do not post over here. Is every one allright here? Have mounting responsabilities here but I miss you guys.>

< You used to post regularly:

<<< Brasil = Titanic >>>>

We need more such postings as prices are creeping up.

07-02-04 savonarola: MP... <Durante esta Reuni�n Secreta se presentaron a Ch�vez las pruebas irrefutables y documentadas ( con nombres, apellidos, montos y compa��as) , por parte del Gobierno Norteamericano y sus fuentes de inteligencia ( Agencias),>

The article would be interesting if it were true. For that to be the case, the American Intelligence must be <intelligent>.... If the evidence that they are showing is of the same quality as the <weapons of mass destruction>.....

In any case, the best thing for us to make a quick buck would be for Hugo to leave.

07-02-04 moneypenny: Apagon: Very interesting stuff! I just finished mi traduccion en ingles - the last graf is muddled and I am still trying to figure out what it is really saying but it's because I am tired. If anyone sees anything wrong with it (I had trouble with tenses and made my best guess on some) please tell me; all corrections are very welcome.

What an interesting story!

Translation of Apagon's article for English readers:

http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/venezue...

07-02-04 Patient-Trader: <Saddam> told his interrogator on one occasion that a principal reason for invading <Kuwait> was his belief that he needed to keep his army occupied. ...Mr. Hussein seemed to suggest that he distrusted what his restive officer corps might do if they were not otherwise distracted. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/02/p...

07-02-04 victorn: amigo <Should DR and Argentina be merged into a single state ?> why? you just can not compare both countries. if argy had passed a fiscal reform similar to the one agreed by prd & pld, argy would not have its current mess, and would be able to pay its debts. in my opinion, the more power social organizations have in any country, the less willingness the govt has in paying its debts during times of crisis. if the govt has to choose (in the short term) between paying debts or giving milk to poor children, dr would choose the former, while argy the latter. i see two different worlds, so i just can't understand why you mentioned the merger idea.

Reforma ir� s�lo despu�s del 16 de agosto 1:46:00 PM

Los voceros de los bloques de senadores perrede�stas y de diputados reformistas, Tommy Dur�n Garden y Luis Emilio Reyes Ozuna, dijeron hoy que la reforma fiscal ser�a conocida por el Congreso despu�s del 16 de agosto.

Consultados por separado, coincidieron en que no pueden aprobar "a la carrera" un proyecto que al sector empresarial le cost� meses elaborar y de cual los legisladores desconocen su contenido.

Explicaron que si lo reciben el 15 de julio, como se ha prometido que ser�a enviado al Congreso, esa reforma ir�a a vistas p�blicas y su conocimiento y aprobaci�n ser�a despu�s del 16 de agosto.

Criticaron que esa reforma fiscal no contemple un aumento salarial.

El diputado reformista por Santiago, licenciado Angel Acosta, calific� de "indigno" el proyecto fiscal acordado por el presidente Hip�lito Mej�a y el presidente electo, doctor Leonel Fern�ndez.

Reyes Ozuna dijo que el PRSC no fue consultado para la elaboraci�n de ese proyecto que afirm� contempla medidas "criminales" contra los menos pudientes.

Consider� que la clase humilde no puede ser castigada con m�s impuestos, porque lo que "consigue es para sobrevivir, apenas le alcanza para comer una vez al d�a".

En tanto, Dur�n Garden dijo que los legisladores tendr�n que tomar el tiempo necesario para conciliar los intereses econ�micos de los poderosos con los sectores humildes.

"Es imposible que sigamos castigando m�s a la poblaci�n con impuestos y no contemplemos una recompensa que pueda amortiguar los efectos negativos de una reforma", agreg�.

El presidente del Senado, Jes�s V�sques Mart�nez, dijo que remitir�a a vistas p�blicas el proyecto de reforma fiscal.

Acosta

El diputado reformista Angel Acosta, en un documento entregado a la redacci�n de El Nacional sugiri� a su partido que se mantenga al margen del debate de la reforma fiscal.

"Este pacto niega a todas luces los mejores intereses de la naci�n, porque dicho acuerdo s�lo representa una garant�a de impugnidad reciprocada que excluye los problemas principales que afectan al pueblo dominicano. Cit� que se excluy� la mejor�a en el costo de la vida y la disminuci�n del desempleo.

"Este intercambio bochornoso pone de manifiesto el beneficio del PRD de impugnidad ante las evidentes indelicadezas del manejo del Estado, a cambio de compartir la impopularidad del PLD ante las desagradables medidas econ�micas anunciadas en el mismo acto", agreg� Acosta.

Opin� que manteni�ndose al margen de ese pacto "indigno", los reformistas demostrar�an que son la diferencia en el espectro pol�tico, porque no se prestan a "sacrificar al pueblo".

Los presidentes Mej�a y Fern�ndez firmaron el 22 de junio un pacto de gobernabilidad en el que se comprometen diligenciar la aprobaci�n de un proyecto de reforma fiscal como lo sugiere el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).

El acuerdo, denominado de gobernabilidad, firmado teniendo como testigo a monse�or Agripino N��ez Collado y el ex jefe de Gobierno espa�ol Felipe Gonz�lez, establece en su art�culo Dos que "los t�cnicos representantes del presidente electo, con la colaboraci�n activa de las autoridades y los t�cnicos del gobierno, en consulta con el Fondo Monetario Internacional, continuar�n trabajando en el proyecto de reforma fiscal, con el prop�sito de tenerlo preparado a m�s tardar el 10 de julio del 2004".

Adem�s, que el presidente Mej�a se compromete a someterlo al Congreso a m�s tardar el 15 de julio.

El 27 de julio concluye la legislatura que fue extendida por 60 d�as el 27 de mayo.

07-02-04 Amateur: Enjoy the trip, greetings to old Italy. If you hear a big noise during the flight, dont worry: It will be some equities market collapsing...:-)))

07-01-04 carib: Maybe we can even get Escipion out of his beach-hideaway, for Carrasco..

07-01-04 carib: Amateur: we can use the Mendoza board to get in touch with those holders we do not know. I have to spend a couple of days on planes now, but I will get in touch with the other holders I know.

07-01-04 Amateur: I'll be in Carrasco any time, just give me a couple days notice.

JPM will start getting nervous by July 20...Lets wait to see if there is some hidden treasure in the "Memorandum". A few million may become important if they are just a few million short...

07-01-04 carib: I am in Italy from this Saturday. Italian holders of Mendoza might wish to get in touch.

07-01-04 carib: As for the <Mendoza> club... I still think we easily put together a few millions. But a number of Colores is now out of it, and I have only a portion left. I had contacted JPM... but they appeared uninterested (initially) in discussions.

07-01-04 carib: Amateur: I was considering a trip to Carrasco in August, if Fox is available and Manya is kind enough to show up...

07-01-04 Amateur: As to the Malbec, it will be several bottles, to be delivered in the next Southamerican Fiji. Any particular brand?

07-01-04 Amateur: Tks for the pxes, Carib.

I mailed Mellon Investors Services asking for a copy, will post it if I get it.

The time may have arrived to form a "club" to negotiate some improvement with JPM. Do you think we might put together a relevant amount of bonds?

I want to read the "Memorandum" because it <might> include some <carrot>, otherwise the proposal seems too unattractive. Also the Lux filing says <If a supplement to the Memorandum is prepared reflecting changes to the terms of the Offer, a notice will be published...>. That means that JPM must have foreseen that some improvement of the initial Offer might have to be made to obtain the required majorities.

07-01-04 carib: Amateur: july 1 prices uploaded. You owe me a glass of Malbec :-)

07-01-04 carib: Amateur: I asked JPM, and they answered: ask again on tuesday.

07-01-04 carib: Apagon: as I actually happened to be there in Nica in feb 1990, I can tell you that the alleged "ultimatum" that was given to Daniel to accept accepting Violeta's victory... only consisted in publishing the result of the election, something the Comandantes finally accepted late at night, after harsh internal discussions. The only other alternative the Sandinastas had was refusing to communicate the result of the internationally supervised elections that had just taken place... and face the consequences. But those elections were indeed well supervised internationally, and large scale fraud was impossible. I am not sure the same is true in Veni, even if I hope it is. The US military threat was also there, I must add.

07-01-04 Amateur: Can someone obtain a copy of the "Memorandum" mentioned in the Mendoza restructuring proposal? It is suposed to be distributed by Mellon Investor Services and also by JP Morgan. Pse. post to the relevalnt Qualmatrix folder. Tks!

07-01-04 panasonic: Very Interesting <apagon>!!!!

07-01-04 carib: Interesting, Apagonazo.

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